Mini 594 - Satin Doll Showdown - {GAME OVER}

[Incognito]

/confirm.

[Incognito]

Beat ya, Patrick. =P

[Incognito]

It will be a pleasure to play again with you Incog. =D

You too! I just hope you're more involved in this game than last time. =/

[Incognito]

Is that pic from a Sigur Ros album, Incog?

Yep, it is.

[Incognito]

Vote: Erg0

for buddying up.

IGMEOY: Patrick and Ether

for 42%.

[Incognito]

My votes are never random.

[Incognito]

I really don't get the point of random voting, so no vote for me.

Didn't you random vote in 539?

[Incognito]

Why an FoS, hasdgfas? I've taken Ether's behavior so far as a slight protown sign...

I found her reasoning to be really, really stupid, in all honesty. She voted you, saying that it "wasn't random" simply because you said you were, what was it, the hottest dancing girl in the club? That's a very light reason to be voting someone before most of us know anything.

Does it bother you that I, too, mentioned that my vote on someone wasn't random?

[Incognito]

Was it arbitrary? Were you just looking for a reason to vote someone in the "random phase"?

No, it wasn't arbitrary. I usually try and put at least a decent amount of thought into initial votes even if they don't have as much basis as votes that I place further down the line within a game. I usually try to choose people whom I think would make good springboards for discussion. Erg0 made a comment about my avatar which was probably just friendly conversation but if he was actually buddying up, he might have reacted differently after I made the comment. Also, Erg0 and I have played in a game recently where he was town and was wagoned early on so I wanted to see if his reaction here was comparable to his reaction in that game.

Either way, I questioned you about it because both Ether and I chose to mention that our votes weren't random but you chose to single her out for her non-random vote with an FoS and even went as far to call her reasoning "really, really stupid" but mentioned nothing about mine.

[Incognito]

I find hasdgfas's explanation acceptable. I think he clearly demonstrated why he thought mine and Ether's votes and reasons for voting were different and therefore, I don't think there was an inconsistency in his FoS choice as I initially thought there was.

Early Protown Indicators: Erg0, Ether, Glork, Mizzy

What is it about Mizzy's contribution so far that gives you an early pro-town indicator?

[Incognito]

idk... gut?

Interesting.

Unvote; Vote: Glork

Certain things just aren't adding up. Previously you mentioned the following:

Point: Incognito.


Hascow? Response?

I took the above to mean that I had done something within thread that lead you to believe that I was likely pro-town. However in your recent "Early Protown Indicator" list, I remained unlisted (unlike your gut-feeling on Mizzy) which would indicate that your post 60 didn't mean what I thought it did. And since it didn't mean that, it really does look like you were "goading hasdgfas and me from the sidelines" like Erg0 mentioned in Post 68.

What exactly did "Point: Incognito" mean?

[Incognito]

On second inspection, this bothers me. Firstly because I don't see how, "Point: Incognito" could mean "I think Incognito looks protown". But I have to ask, even if that was what you thought it meant, wouldn't it still have been goading you and hasdgfas on from the sidelines? I don't really follow this thought process.

Prior to Post 60, Glork had made a comment in Post 55 about Ether which mentioned that he was taking Ether's behavior so far to be a pro-town sign. I figured that along that same line of thinking Glork had found something that I mentioned (Post 59) to also be a pro-town indicator and was giving me a "point" for that comment. I thought he was trying to use things people were saying within thread to formulate his reads on people and not actually goad from the sidelines. But Glork mentioned recently that he meant "he made a good point" rather than the definition of "point" that I thought he was using.

Quick update on my thoughts: After looking back over the few posts Ether has made so far, I get a pro-town read of her. She's acting (so far) like I would expect an Ethertown to act. Granted, we're only on page 4. But I don't think that her stretching on Glork makes her scummy, yet.

Mizzy, since you were watching the debate between both Ether and Glork did you also update your feelings with respect to Glork as well?

[Incognito]

If I had said "Hmm, Incognito makes an interesting point. I'd like to hear what hasdgfas has to say about this alleged inconsistency" would I be "goading from the sidelines then? I think you're mistaking presentation for intent.

You're probably right about that. I think if you had layed it out as clearly as you did above or the way you did in your response to my question, your thoughts about the situation and your true intention behind the post would have been more clear to me. That makes more sense now.

[Incognito]

MafiaSSK, hasdgfas and rolandgarros have been prodded

SSK should probably just be replaced. The kid doesn't post unless he's prodded.

[Incognito]

Incognito, what's your current vote based on?

Honestly, not much. I thought Glork's response and explanation after my vote was reasonable. If I had a better place to put my vote right now, I'd place it there but since Glork isn't in any immediate danger, I'll leave it for the sake of having a vote.

[Incognito]

Unvote; Vote: Mizzy

I actually haven't seen anything really FoS-worthy coming from Patrick's direction to be honest.

[Incognito]

to be honest

Truly and honestly?

Are your other posts/statements/thoughts not meant "to be honest"?

Everything I've mentioned within thread is meant "to be honest".

[Incognito]

Not really. I tend to use "tbh" or "to be honest" pretty frequently even in general conversation outside of games. It's almost become a habit. In this case, I just wanted to mention that I haven't seen anything outside of the norm coming from Patrick thus far.

[Incognito]

WTB explanation for vote. PST.

I just don't see any form of scum hunting or productive contribution coming from you. You yourself mentioned previously that the random voting phase had ended quickly and that you were unvoting while watching the Ether/Glork thing going on but now that that has pretty much come to a lull, I still don't see much coming from your direction. Your previous post before these last two still seems like a joke post, which is fine and dandy since this is a game and all, but I would expect some more serious contribution by now. Obviously this also applies to a few others but you specifically mentioned that the joking stage had ended, but yet I still see nothing fairly serious in the form of suspicions or actual content from you. Also, you kinda missed Glork's previous question for you. Hence the vote.

[Incognito]

The rest I'm curious about especially Incognito.

What is it about me that you're curious about?

@Mizzy:

This was the post I was referring to that had Glork's question which you missed:

If I use the word "hebetudinous" to describe your brain when you made the correlation between big words and pro-town, does that make me pro-town, too?

You're welcome to try.

Now, what do you think of some of the other players 'round here?

[Incognito]

The rest I'm curious about especially Incognito.

What is it about me that you're curious about?

Your playing differently then you did in 539.

Oh.

[Incognito]

Checking in mainly to let everyone know I'm still here. This game is bugging me though since I feel like there's a whole half of people that I have absolutely no preliminary reads on. I still like my Mizzy vote even though I feel kinda cruel keeping my vote on a new mother lol.

MafiaSSK, can you elaborate a bit more as to

why

you think those people are pro-town? Also, is what Patrick said about me seeming more passive in this game the same thing you were getting at with respect to my play here and my play in 539?

[Incognito]

hasdgfas, I really don't understand your recent vote on MafiaSSK or any of the content of your past few posts. Back in Post 164 you mentioned that you were most suspicious of rolandgarros, Glork, PokerFace, and this fourth person who you couldn't remember (we now know this to be MafiaSSK). You seem to be basing your vote on SSK on the fact that he created a pro-town list of people based on vibes and hasn't done any form of scum-hunting. Glork also made a pro-town list of people with at least one of those people on his list being based on gut and according to you he hasn't done much scum-hunting either but you've never voted for him or even FoS-ed him. Is there any reason why?

The other thing I'm bothered by is you've claimed that you're suspicious of PF because he is making an attempt to meta-game people. But in two of your past three posts, you've referenced meta-statements to either clear or voice your disapproval about people:

Mizzy: except for her post #10 with all the qualifiers, she seems to be acting normally for her, so I'm not thinking she's scum at the moment.

Glork is....slightly off. I've seen him in other games (though not necessarily played with him), and in this game, he just seems to be playing differently than normal.

Why is it suspicious for PokerFace to be meta-gaming people when you've included meta-analysis in your own posts? Is there a difference between how he's done it and how you are doing it?

[Incognito]

Incog, he's on my list of suspicions, so that equates into a FoS for everyone on it, even though I might not have formally said so. The reason I'm not voting him is that I'm currently suspicious of him mostly on gut, not enough to get a good case on him, but if you'd prefer a formal FoS, I can do that too.

I

don't really need a formal FoS; I was just attempting to clarify what I saw to be an inconsistency. The SSK vote still bothers me though because while you did mention recently that you're less suspicious of Glork relative to SSK because Glork does seem to be doing more scum-hunting than SSK (thereby explaining why SSK got the vote for making a "pro-town list" as opposed to Glork getting the vote for doing the exact same thing), your vote needed to be prompted in a way. And actually, it's not even the prompting that I'm bothered by; it's the fact that you couldn't even

remember

who this fourth person was that you were suspicious of. If SSK was that forgettable relative to your other three suspects, I would expect him to be the

least

vote-worthy of the bunch as opposed to the

most

.

Well, my problem with him is that he seems to only be meta-ing, and I really don't like that. I use meta as some of my arguments, but not as everything I do for the whole game.

We really have no way of knowing the reason PokerFace has decided to ask for referential games because he hasn't provided us with his findings from those games yet. It seems a bit early to say that PF is using meta "for the whole game" when this game isn't very long yet. I am very curious to see what PF has deduced from his research.

[Incognito]

@Patrick:

What was the reason for the unvote?

scotmany, I don't understand this post:

I totally disagree with this. Look over Glork's post. I haven't seen him truly pressure someone yet. On;y time where I think he actually truly scumhunted is when he attack Incog for using TBH. Once again, it appears you are holding these two to separate standards. As long as Glork posts, he is fine...It just doesn't seem right to me. I'm viewing you as our best lynch candidate right now, so

Unvote, Vote: hasdgfas

.

Your whole post looks like you're attacking Glork but then at the very end of it, you place a vote on Glo-.... I mean hasdgfas. Is there any reason why you feel that he's the best lynch candidate?

@Elmo, Tarhalindur, and PokerFace

: Some time this fucking year would be nice, ya know.

[Incognito]

So what do you think of Glork? Do you think he's scum also?

[Incognito]

Is it normal for him to be useless like this?

Dunno. Never played with him before and haven't meta-ed him.

At this point, I'm still unsure who I would like to see lynched. My take on the hasdgfas wagon is pending his response. I don't like how he's gone lurker-ish in the face of these accusations. It's a bit unsettling how I still have absolutely no read on Tarhalindur, Elmo, and PokerFace and the deadline is like... right there. SSK seems mildly town to me especially since I'm familiar with his playstyle (scummiest pro-town Mason buddy of all time). Mizzy's recap of events seems completely off, and Glork could easily get my vote at this point too. So yeah... I'm like ttly in limbo lol.

[Incognito]

Unvote; Vote: Elmo

Added incentive.

[Incognito]

Incog: What is '42%' in post 27?

Sheesh. I thought

someone

would ask about that 42% thing sooner. Rofl.

Before this game began, Patrick and I had a conversation about how we both were hoping to not draw scum roles in this game. We joked around about the possibility of all three of me, Patrick, and Ether being the scum team and how horrible that would be since we all enjoy town roles much better than scum roles. 42% was the probability that all three of us would be aligned on the side of the town due to random distribution of roles if we assume a three-person scum team [(3/4) x (3/4) x (3/4)]. So my IGMEOY was in relation to that - the fact that it would mathematically be more probable for at least

one

of us to be aligned on the side of the scum as opposed to all three of us being town.

Why do you like your Mizzy vote in 175?

I'm pretty sure it was still related to my reasoning that I covered in Post 139. Mizzy made a few posts following 139 but still had not really contributed anything worthwhile with respect to her suspicions, analysis... pretty much anything that I would expect from Mizzy-town. Therefore I felt no need to move my vote to anyone else or remove it from her completely.

[Incognito]

Erg0, was the question below for me?

Kind of odd that nobody noticed that Scot's vote on hasdgfas was a very close echo of my post 210. Not that I disagree with his reason, but I would have expected some mention of agreement with me in there. For that matter, is there any reason that he was attacked for the comment and I wasn't?

[Incognito]

Also, my claim isn't very impressive.
Ordinary patron, aka vanilla townie.

I'm pretty much inclined to believe this claim. I don't think scum would fake-claim vanilla townie especially this early in the game; instead I think scum would be more likely to fake-claim a power role in order to hopefully draw a counterclaim and gain more information about the set-up.

At this point, I think I would be happiest with a Glork-lynch. I don't particularly like that some people have given Glork this "out" citing that we should keep him around since, if he's town, he could be a huge help towards helping find scum with his reputation. I think there's a few people in this game whom I could say the same for so to give him this out seems pretty silly. Glork hasn't done much scum-hunting aside from the "to be honest" debate and the FoS on Patrick. I also think Patrick brought up a fair point when he mentioned the following:

I was there too, early on. Now I read him as slightly scummy, as it definitely isn't normal for him to be this useless, and it's the kind of play he often goes after himself. It also bothers me how he hasn't even tried to follow up his attack on me, especially after what happened last time, and especially since a number of people said they had no problems with my play. I'd expect more concern. It's not a stretch that he could be lazy town, but I don't like it.

After Glork's FoS, instead of following it up with more content as to

why

he was suspicious of Patrick, he chose to single me out for using the phrase "to be honest". It seemed pretty nit-picky to me and while I don't think being nit-picky is always a bad thing, really by page 6 you should be using other information within the thread to develop reads on other people aside from minutiae. With the quality of the players in this game, I'd actually expect scum to be more nit-picky than town anyway. I also find it bothersome how Glork didn't even bother to comment on Mizzy's case against Patrick. If Glork really found Patrick to be that suspicious, I would think he would support Mizzy's vote and insert his own comments about Patrick's play instead of just continuing the push for the hasdgfas-wagon. Therefore I'm going with this:

Unvote; Vote: Glork

Other lynches I would support: Mizzy, Tarhalindur, and Elmo all for being uncharacteristically useless.

[Incognito]

Incog: What is the comparison being drawn for 'uncharacteristically useless'? I don't believe we've been in a completed game together.

This is correct; we haven't been in a completed game with one another, but I've read through at least one of your completed games in which you were town, and you were certainly more active in that game when compared to this one. I realize that you were a replacement in this game, but you replaced in way back on May 16th and produced your first "content-laden" post nine days later on the 25th, which happened to fall about four days before deadline. Prior to that, the only thing I knew about you was that you <3 Patrick. So yeah, that's what I mean by "uncharacteristically useless".

With the quality of the players in this game, I'd actually expect scum to be more nit-picky than town anyway.

Really? Why?

I would expect scum to be more nit-picky than town in a game with higher quality players because those players who actually are pro-town and experienced will generally look rather pro-town to the scum. I think it would be like Stoofer's Syndrome to the max which would pretty much force the scum to pick on very minor things in the hopes that those minor things blew up into things that were more major. Obviously picking on minor things is the way most games start but for Glork to do it on Page 6 of the thread when other things had developed at that time (including "highly suspicious behavior from Patrick"), his nit-picking of me for saying "tbh" seemed completely off.

[Incognito]

I like how Glork has absolutely no comment about my vote on him or any comment about the fact that both Ether and me had come to somewhat similar conclusions to Patrick about our preferred lynches at this point.

[Incognito]

I like how Glork has absolutely no comment about my vote on him or any comment about the fact that both Ether and me had come to somewhat similar conclusions to Patrick about our preferred lynches at this point.

....Not really sure where you're going with this one. Your vote on me is completely inconsequential right now.

You and Ether coming to "somewhat similar" conclusions as Patrick means absolutely nothing to me.



Well tharr ya go! Tricksy commentses!

I was getting at the fact that the content you included in your Post 283 seemed completely geared to all of the information that was written on Page 12. To me, it looked like you hadn't even

bothered

to read through anything that had been written on page 11 at all. In Post 283, you still mentioned that you would be fine with a hasdgfas lynch so I would think you might have at least commented on:

1) his vanilla claim and

2) the conclusion that I and others drew with respect to his vanilla claim.

Instead you just seemed to attack Patrick, respond to PokerFace while still voicing your support for a hasdgfas lynch, and excuse yourself for why you seem to be doing absolutely nothing thus far in this game.

Incognito

- He's been under my radar for most of the game, and that's usually not a good sign. There's a few other points against him - in particular, his conduct towards the has wagon could easily be an attempt to push the has wagon without incriminating himself by joining it, then hop off and gain townie points when has claimed (hereby indicating that he was not a power role). There's also his pushing of a Glork lynch(who, if he's town, is probably THE player the scum want dead) on IMO mediocre reasoning.

Tarhalindur, so you consider the fact that Glork has done little to no scum-hunting all game, failed to follow up on his attack on Patrick whom he labeled as "suspicious", and failed to comment or even voice his support for Mizzy's case against Patrick all to be mediocre reasons? Why? I also love how people consider attacking a player who has a decent reputation for being a good scum hunter an automatic scum tell.

Also interesting is the following:

Towndar:

Patrick

- His post 280 is the most protown-looking post in the entire game, and the rest of his posts read somewhat more neutral than scummy.

You labeled Patrick in your Towndar region citing that his post 280 was the towniest post of the entire game but yet two of the five people you've listed in your scumdar region (me and Erg0) were actually referenced as somewhat town by Patrick in that same exact post 280. Patrick even mentioned that he's suspicious of

Glork

, the same person you've listed me in your Scumdar region just for attacking him. Can you explain your reasons for any of this?

[Incognito]

Confirm Vote: Glork

Huge FoS: Tarhalindur

Those two definitely stand as my scummiest right now with Elmo right next to Tarhalindur as well. Tarhalindur's reads look so fucking contrived it's ridiculous.

[Incognito]

Tar's "contrived" reads are mostly focused on how Elmo has been insincere, yet you put Elmo at your #3. Could you please read through and elaborate on the Tar-Elmo relationship? How does TarScum affect Elmo's alignment? How does ElmoScum affect Tar's alignment?

His reads and reasons for reading people certain ways just don't make much logical sense to me. He's listed me as scummy mainly because he considered my reasons for attacking you "mediocre" and cited that scum would want to off you right away. He listed Ether as neutral for not attacking very many people but, interestingly enough, Ether also attacked you pretty severely for reasons that had to have been considered even less than mediocre. Why is she not scummy then? Also, how in the world would Ether and you necessarily have to share the same alignment? Ether made it extremely clear that her opening vote on you was very serious and that she genuinely felt like you were role-fishing. His read of Patrick for Patrick's Post 280 being the "towniest post of the game" doesn't match with his reads of both Erg0 and me since he's listed the both of us as scummy while Patrick has come to an exact opposite conclusion. I do see what you're getting at with respect to Elmo though since Tarhalindur pretty much summarized the case against him but that certainly doesn't mean that they can't be scum with one another since a number of people have been making comments about Elmo's lack of contribution or complete lack of a sense of urgency for awhile now. That could have led Tarhalindur to come to the conclusion that people might swing their votes to Elmo eventually and that it might have been time to cut himself away from his damaged goods.

[Incognito]

Mod,

was the bouncer an NPC or an actual role in the game?

[Incognito]

EBWOP: Bouncer likely means "Governor," as in "one-shot lynch preventer." Somebody kept Elmo alive because they thought he was protown. I don't see what there is to be confused about.

This is most likely true. I just read up the role of Governor in the Wiki, and it seems to match the scenario that happened with Elmo. I was confused mainly because the mod didn't highlight the bouncer title in a bolded green or some other color thereby indicating some sort of alignment or that it was an actual role within this game. Instead the mod left the bouncer's title in his regular blue text color which might have indicated that it was an NPC.

I agree with Tarhalindur being scum for reasons that I've cited previously. I don't agree with the hasdgfas conclusion still though, and I also don't completely agree with the MafiaSSK conclusion either. He needs to pipe in a bit more. And Glork was at the top of my suspicions list yesterday so I'm still very leery of him. I'll go with this for now:

Vote: Tarhalindur

[Incognito]

P.S. It would be hilarious if this was a slip from SSK:

Okay then quick response to everything.
I find Ergo,Mizzy,Glork,Patrick to be protown. The rest I'm curious about especially Incognito.

do you have any sort of reasoning for this?

I re-read the thread and got those vibes from the protown people.

He didn't say "got those vibes from the people I think are protown"; he said "got those vibes from the protown people" which seems to imply additional knowledge of their alignment. So far we know it to be true of Patrick at least.

[Incognito]

Unvote; Vote: Glork

If Tarhalindur's telling the truth, I'm glad I was correct at least correct about my Glork suspicions.

[Incognito]

Also, no counterclaim here.

[Incognito]

One thing though, about this:

In practical terms, I'm the cop. I investigated Glork last night, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone who read my analysis post yesterday.

If you're telling the truth, I really wouldn't exactly consider it obvious that you would have investigated Glork of all people. Considering the fact that you created a case against Elmo and he ended up not getting lynched, I would have expected you to maybe investigate him or anyone else on your Scumdar list. In fact, you even listed me in your Scumdar region just for attacking Glork on what you considered "mediocre" reasons. Could you please answer some of the questions I've posed for you in my previous posts, Tarhalindur?

[Incognito]

I am an exotic dancer, Jailkeeper. Obviously this explains my blunder at during confirmations when I blurted that I was the hottest person in the game.

Really? You previously had the following to mention about your "hottest dancing girl in the club" stuff:

I do "what you were getting at," but I think you're confusing some

harmless pre-game banter

for fishing and subsequently making a DD out of an A.

Ether, if anything, my comment would have stated more about my own role than seeking reaction from others.

I assure you. I was goofing around.

That is, unless you think I'm actually a gorgeous exotic dancer.

[Incognito]

Unvote

I don't want a quick-lynch, and I still think Tarhalindur has a lot of questions that he has to answer before we come anywhere near settling on today's lynch.

[Incognito]

Okay, I should mention that this is a slightly awkward situation for me. While I'm glad that my P.E. #1 was potentially investigated as guilty, it bothers me that my P.E. #2 happened to be the investiga

tor

. Nevertheless, I'm inclined to believe Tarhalindur at this point given his responses.

Re: Lepton's Gambit. The only reason I could think of for a Tarhalindur-scum to use Lepton's Gambit at this stage of the game is if he felt like Glork was so dangerous to the scum that sacrificing himself tomorrow would be worth it just to have Glork lynched today. Otherwise I would expect a Tarhalindur-scum to simply claim FBI agent and then claim to have investigated someone as an "innocent" thereby allowing himself to potentially get more time to live and casting even further seed of doubt for tomorrow. I suppose that single reason for a Tarhalindur-scum to use Lepton's Gambit is somewhat plausible considering the fact that Tarhalindur mentioned what he mentioned with respect to my D1 attacks on Glork, but I find that more unlikely. I will say this: If Glork is today's lynch and does turn up town, then Tarhalindur should be lynched tomorrow pronto. There's absolutely no way I would believe a person claiming to be a sanity-challenged FBI agent in a mini-game. If this was a larger game where the margin for town error was a bit larger, then yes, I might believe someone who claimed to be sanity-challenged.

2) I saw a possible connection between Ether and Glork yesterday, so investigating Glork might also give me a better read on Ether. Speaking of that, now that I have her reaction to the Glork wagon (she was pretty supportive of Glork yesterday - note the "Glork's town tell" and "I would not be up for a Glorklynch; I am in the "Glork is allowed to suck on Day 1" camp." posts - but she claimed to believe me completely today), I now feel comfortable saying that Ether has moved firmly onto my scumdar.

HoS: Ether

I don't really see the Ether/Glork connection. In fact, I'm still leaning very town on Ether. If Glork does turn up scum, then I'm actually more inclined to believe that hasdgfas might be the most likely scum buddy for Glork given the new information with respect to Tar's possible alignment and despite what I mentioned yesterday about has's vanilla claim. I think hasdgfas's treatment of Glork is more telling of this possible connection with Glork than the inverse (Glork's treatment of has). I could go into more detail about this if necessary.

The other major reason for finding you scummy was your behavior towards has between the two Glork votes, which I interpreted as a possible attempt to push the has wagon to completion without being called for it (if you were scum, your unvote is a little odd, but it *could* have been a case of trying to gain townie points by derailing a town wagon).

To be fair, I never voted for hasdgfas to begin with so there was no "unvote" there to find odd. At the time that I unvoted and shifted to Glork, I was actually voting for Elmo as added incentive for him to provide more content. And prior to that I was voting for Mizzy.

(There's a slight factor that he [Glork] looked bouncery after the Elmo incident, and therefore would have been harder for you to lynch and less worthwhile to try and force a claim out of as a final death rattle.)

These were actually my exact same thoughts with respect to Glork, hence the reason I decided to vote for Tarhalindur (my P.E. #2) at the start of today rather than Glork himself. Now that Glork has claimed Jailkeeper, those thoughts have obviously gone out the door.

Just so it's clear where I stand, I'm going with this:

Vote: Glork

I highly, highly, highly doubt that vote will change today.

[Incognito]

That's all fine and dandy, but have you nothing to say about my request?

If I'm protown, you only have information to gain by the interrogations of a former Paragon of Mafia Hunters. If I'm scum, I just might give something away about who my scumbuddies are (though at this stage, that'd be pretty unlikely).

Dude, do whatever you'd like. If it were up to me, you would have been D1 lynched, and we wouldn't be going through this whole scenario right now. If you were protown, you would have done this "Paragon of Mafia Hunters" crap on D1. It's strange that now that your back is up against the wall, you suddenly feel the need to grill people the way you've suggested. Where was this Paragon on Day 1? It's not like Tarhalindur made Post 75 (the post you labeled as a "doozie") today; you could have easily pointed out the problem with that post yesterday if you had that much of an issue with it instead of, say, FoS-ing Patrick for unprovided reasons.

Another thing: Glork, at the start of today you mentioned that the scum team is Tarhalindur, hasdgfas, and MafiaSSK, but you specifically chose to vote for Tarhalindur despite the fact that the hasdgfas-wagon was the major competing wagon at the end of Day 1. Is there any reason why you chose him of the three? Because as far as I can tell, I was probably the only person who had taken that much of an issue with Tarhalindur's play. Yes, other people labeled him as scummy but most other people mentioned him more in passing whereas I actually "Huge FoS-ed" him. It just seems odd for you to have chosen him when there were three other people (Pokerface, Patrick (albeit he's dead) and Erg0) who were voting for hasdgfas at the end of D1.

SSK, about this:

Nothing new to add here but /prodded.
I mean all the reasons above noted for Glork make sense for why he's scum unlike Elmo.

What exactly did you not like about the case against Elmo yesterday? What exactly do you like about the case against Glork today?

I don't think that SSK is the play today. The only reason to lynch anyone other than Tar or Glork would be that you don't think that either of them is scum (which seems unlikely).

I agree with Erg0 here. Mizzy, do you have reason to believe that

both

Glork and Tarhalindur are telling the truth besides this WIFOM stuff? If yes, why?

[Incognito]

EBWOP: Just realized I listed the people who were on the Elmo wagon and not the hasdgfas wagon. Make that Elmo, Ether, and scotmany12 as opposed to Patrick, PokerFace and Erg0.

[Incognito]

Tell me this, Incog (and everyone else, for that matter): What do you think of the fact that Tarh has not bothered to defend against ANY of the points made against him so far?

Basically, I'd like Tarhalindur to become more involved in the game in general and not just specifically to defend himself against the points you've made.

Just one more note about about your Day 1 lazy play points: By post 100, you were still fairly interested in the game as mentioned below:

I don't always speak my mind, but the gears are constantly cranking inside. Well, xcept in really, really, really, REALLY boring games. But this isn't one of them.

I'm not sure when exactly you became disinterested in the game but you most certainly were still very interested at around the time Tarhalindur made Post 75.

[Incognito]

What do you mean?

[Incognito]

@SSK:

I'm pretty much bolding your name so you won't miss this question:

SSK, about this:

Nothing new to add here but /prodded.
I mean all the reasons above noted for Glork make sense for why he's scum unlike Elmo.

What exactly did you not like about the case against Elmo yesterday? What exactly do you like about the case against Glork today?

Another question: Is there any reason you haven't bothered to vote all game yet? I have a theory about this, but I'll wait until you answer first before revealing what I'm thinking.

[Incognito]

Well so far he's listed one person who he believes would be Glork's most likely scum buddy (Ether), and I've mentioned that I completely disagree with him. So no, even if Tarhalindur is town I won't be basing all of my thoughts on his conclusions since I think his major one is so far off. The main reason I want him to become more involved in this game is to ease my paranoia; lurker-ish claimed cops begin to remind me of ChaosOmega from Vollville. :S

[Incognito]

I didn't like how there were just constant attacks then a lynch. It also seemed just a bit over reachy.
I just like all the points that have been made against him and that they make sense.
As to your last question, I'm just trying out a new playstyle. What was your theory though?

Two competing theories actually:

1) The last time you were scum was that SSBB Smalltown Mafia that you mentioned previously. It seems like the reason you were easily found out by the town in that game was because your votes seemed extremely volatile and swingy. You've also mentioned that your playstyle is in the works or what-have-you. Thus, if you're scum in this game, you might be trying a more reserved playstyle to avoid the level of suspicion that you felt in SSBB.

2) You could just be town who is trying this "town lurker" playstyle like you mentioned previously. I don't think the conclusion that you drew here is entirely accurate though:

You ge tto understand how aggressive the player is and see how they interact with a lurker. From my experience, scum seem to go after a town lurker much more than a town person would because they know that town will usually agree with lynching a useless townie. However, if it were a scum lurker, the scum usually try to defend the lurker in question.

I mean, yes, there might be some truth to it in certain cases, but I think town might go after town lurkers just as much as scum might do the same.

[Incognito]

Yeah, he looks obvtown to me. You, on the other hand~~~

[Incognito]

Acid: I am under the impression that you've seen this before. I am not going to spell out what question I have just answered. Please just read this and move along.

Damn, I wish I knew what you were talking about. x_x

In other news: Uhm, yeah. Where's Tar?

[Incognito]

Erg0, I have a tiny issue with the conclusion that you've arrived at with respect to Glork and his alignment.

I can understand the logic you've used to clear Glork in your mind but part of it doesn't make sense to me. You've set up Glork as this "magnet for night actions" and referenced a previous game in Mini 545 to help support this idea. However, I get the feeling that Glork's magnetism seems to be completely independent of his behavior anyway, i.e. it doesn't matter

how

Glork acts during Day 1, he will likely be a popular target during Night 1 anyway. In fact, in that very game you cited, you were the cop, and you chose to investigate Glork during Night 1. Did you choose to investigate him during Night 1 because you thought he was acting scummy during Day 1 or simply because he was Glork? If it was because he was Glork, then I think the conclusion you've arrived at to determine that Glork is likely town here because he was acting obstinate doesn't seem correct since it seems like no matter how Glork acted, he had to have expected some N1 activity in this game anyway.

Another point against Glork:

I feel like the opening flavor seems suggestive that Tarhalindur is actually telling the truth here (note the underlined):

"Yeah boss?" A pregnant pause. "I got it." Nervous looks pass between subordinates. "

The feds are onto us.

Somebody out there is talking to them. The don wishes for us to take care of the problem." It takes a moment for everyone to comprehend the gravity of this statement. "We start tonight."

The opening flavor seems to lay the groundwork for just what type of investigative role we could expect from this game. If Tarhalindur claimed to be a plain old Cop, then yeah, his claim might be more questionable. But the fact that he claimed to be an FBI agent and the opening flavor suggests we may have some feds among us seems to lend support to Tar's claim.

[Incognito]

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

FoS: Erg0

[Incognito]

That implies that you

know

I'm town.

[Incognito]

Glork: Sorry, I missed that question.

I was under the impression that the hottest dancing girl in the club thing was a joke post. I never took it as fishing the way Ether did and never thought it had anything to do with your role at all. To me, it seemed funny coming from you because you're a guy and you're claiming to be a hot dancing girl in this strip club theme type of game. So as for your question, I don't find either one of A or B to be likely; instead I think you decided to fake-claim Jailkeeper whenever you decided to (whether it be early in the game or last night or upon learning about Tar's guilty on you) and likewise decided to make it seem like that early post was some kind of breadcrumb to your claim to attempt to increase the validity of it.

[Incognito]

To me, it seemed funny coming from you because you're a guy and you're claiming to be a hot dancing girl in this strip club theme type of game.

So you find it unusual that I, a guy, claim to be a hot female in a strip-club themed game, and you think there's zero chance that I was breadcrumbing?


That sounds a little sketch.

How does it sound sketch? I take it that Mizzy interpreted it the same way: hence, she stuffed dollar bills down your thong.

[Incognito]

I'm talking after the fact, you git.

So you're telling me that this is what you currently think:
--Upon my confirmation, I pretended to be a female dancing girl just for shits and giggles
--When I decided upon my "fakeclaim," I retroactively used that completely pointless roleplaying to make the claim more believable

And Bingo was his name-oooo!

Are you seriously, honestly telling me that I had NO reason for having insinuated that I was a dancing girl in a game called the Satin Doll Showdown?

Yes, I think that hottest dancing girl in the club comment had absolutely no ulterior motives and was a comment made for all of us to get a good laugh.

[Incognito]

Glork, you're a smart Mafia player. Let's assume you're telling the truth here and are actually this power-role Jailkeeper that you claim to be. First of all, we start with the fact that you're a pro-town

power role

. A power role is by definition a role that is completely unlike the rest; it's a stand-out among the crowd; something unattainable that only the select few could be. I find it ABSOLUTELY HARD to believe that you would think that all of the roles within this game, including the Vanillas all happen to be beautiful, exotic dancers like yourself. After all, you're a stand-out power role. Why would we all be just like you? What exactly would separate the vanillas from your beautiful power role-ness then? Did your role PM mention that you have

BIGGER BOOBS

than all of us or something?

Glork, surely you can see why I have a hard time believing this was all a breadcrumb, right?

[Incognito]

Incog, I couldn't see it initially, but now you're just being dense, IMO. What else does he have to say to convince you?

His death scene.

I'll think about this some more during sleep. 'night!

[Incognito]

Glork, can you paraphrase what your supposed Jailkeeper role PM said?

[Incognito]

Specifically the portion after it says "You are a___________".

[Incognito]

You haven't blasted anything to smithereens yet, buddy.

I can see you making that "all of us must be dancing girls" mistake in that mini-game that you linked to since you all had specific names of stripper girls, but I'll wait until the mod confirms your paraphrase to make that judgment call. Also keep in mind that even aside from Tar's guilty on you, I had issues with your play since Day 1. Even if your paraphrasing seems to hold weight and lend support to your breadcrumbing argument, I'm not gonna automatically clear you and ring up Tarhalindur; instead I'm gonna analyze everything and make a judgment call as to which of you two is more likely to be scum given the facts. This is rather annoying since you both were my top suspects at the end of Day 1.

[Incognito]

Oh.

Exotic Dancer.

This is the paraphrase?

[Incognito]

I'll use the vanilla role PM from the first page to demonstrate the portion that I actually want paraphrased (please see the underlined):

There is at least one vanilla townie. The role PM looks like this:

PLAYERNAME

, you are an ordinary

patron

at the Satin Dolls Gentleman's Club.

After a long day at work you've come here to have a drink, watch the dancers and relax. Too bad for you things are about to get violent.

[/quote]

[Incognito]

Glork: Dude, seriously, chill out. I really don't appreciate your "screaming language", your cursing at me, your berating of me, or anything along those lines. I understand that if you're town you might be frustrated at the fact that I'm having a hard time believing you but seriously, it might help your case better if you talk with me more sensibly. If you're town, we still need to work together to find scum, correct? Your demeanor isn't improving your position in my eyes.

Now first of all, as Erg0 already mentioned, I was referring to the paraphrased PM that you said you were sending to the Mod for confirmation. I wasn't fishing for a modkill like you said. If I wasn't entirely clear about that, then my apologies. If you were deliberately trying to contort my words to make it seem like I wanted a modkill, then my vote is exactly right where it belongs, obv.

I'm looking at your paraphrasing, and I'm really trying to think about this from your perspective assuming you're telling the truth here. Your role PM might have looked something like this then:

Glork, you are an

exotic dancer

at the Satin Dolls Gentlemen's Club. Once per night, you can bring a single person back to blah blah blah. And then at the bottom OGML translated your role name into more customary terms essentially summarizing your role as Jailkeeper along with a town win condition.

Fine. Do you see the issue with this though? Do you see why it was silly of you to assume we were all dancing girls and why I'm not being "intentionally obtuse" when I say I don't believe you? According to your paraphrasing, the mod just called you an exotic dancer and probably bolded that. He didn't say exotic dancer in a cage or exotic dancer wearing a cop's uniform or exotic dancer named so and so or exotic dancer (something specific). He said exotic dancer, period. This should mean that you are one of a kind

especially

if you're a power role. If you really are telling the truth here and really did make that big of a mistake early on then seriously, you need to straighten up your play in a major way. It would be really, really stupid for you to be mislynched as a pro-town power role of your supposed stature, Mr. Paragon.

Now, here's what I'm thinking: If you're telling the truth, what would this say about the bodyguard? Would this somehow indicate that the bodyguard might just be scum? The bodyguard is a form of a protective role and a jailkeeper is also obviously a protective role. I have a hard time believing that two protective roles (especially ones like these that could either prevent a lynch or a night-kill simply if the role targets the correct person) would both be town-aligned and would still allow for the game to be balanced. Any thoughts on this?

P.S. More people need to post. Seriously.

[Incognito]

Yeah, I meant bouncer, not bodyguard. My bad. And yeah, I know it correlates with governor; that was brought up previously also.

[Incognito]

And scot, you believed Glork

before

he even pointed out all of his breadcrumbing in Post 497 just because you thought Tarhalindur's flavor made no sense. That's somewhat opportunistic of you to label me as scummy just because you can't see why I'd have a hard time believing that Glork was actually breadcrumbing. If it wasn't for my repeated questions, you wouldn't have even known that what Glork did early on was supposed to be breadcrumbing to begin with.

[Incognito]

I agree. I think I've become too tunnel-visioned on this Glork<->me argument.

Updates on things:

• I feel like no matter which of the two is scum (Tarhalindur or Glork), hasdgfas seems like a good call for one of their scum buddies. His most recent post (Post 500) seems to indicate that he's leaning towards believing Glork over Tarhalindur but yet he still hasn't placed his vote on either one of the two. The general feeling I get from his posts is he seems to be waiting to see which bandwagon will catch some wind and then he'll eventually follow that wagon with a vote. Since both wagons are at an even stand-still, I still don't get the feeling that he's actually taken a position on either Tar or Glork despite Post 500.
  
  
• I'm not liking Tarhalindur's lurking much when this is a critical stage of the game. He's already claimed cop with a guilty and mentioned that his best method of scum-hunting is links to known scum, but I don't see much attack coming from him or this much-awaited analysis to display those links to Glork-scum. His lurking seems to go across the board to all of his games so maybe it's real-life issues but judging from his posting history, he did post on-site yesterday. Whatever the case, it does make me more leery of him since Glork has actually been making an effort at least as the deadline draws closer.
  
  
• Mizzy, PokerFace, and MafiaSSK need to post more during
  real time
  . I don't want continuous game summaries from PokerFace; I want him involved while things are happening. Mizzy promised something a few days ago but hasn't seemed to gotten around to it and MafiaSSK only posts when people direct things at him.
  
  
• I get an overall spectator-y type of vibe from Elmo that makes me uncomfortable. Glork, what is it about Elmo's play so far that you find to be pro-town?

[Incognito]

Mod:

Has Tarhalindur been prodded? If so, when?

also, welcome to the game, eldardad.

[Incognito]

Incog: I can't place exactly what puts Elmo as town. I have that random roland protown-tell, and I still think that the Elmowagon yesterday was VERY stinky. A question for you: How do you place Elmo's behavior and its implications with respect to the behavior of Mizzy and Tarh?

Mizzy bothers me since I would like her to contribute more but either way, I still think she might be town for reasons I would like to not get into. One of you or Tarhalindur is scum so the Tarhalindur behavior issue will be figured out soon enough. Elmo is one of those people in this game who I'm having an extraordinarily difficult time figuring out so it was a bit surprising to me how you have such a solid town read on him. I just wanted to follow the logic you used to come to this conclusion.

Incidentally, Incog... could you explain the hypothetical relationship between GlorkScum and HasScum? Between TarhScum and HasScum?

Yep, absolutely.

I'm going to be reading through the thread to find instances of hasdgfas/Glork interactions with special concentration on the more telling ones. I should note that the Glork to hasdgfas interactions aren't as revealing of possible sharing of alignment as the hasdgfas to Glork interactions are:

Page 3 was mildly interesting. This was where that whole "goading from the sidelines" debate happened early on. Nothing on this page really solidified a possible connection between Glork and hasdgfas, though I guess it's interesting to note that Glork never voted for hasdgfas yet or FoS-ed him despite the fact that he seemed to have issues with his play. There was a bit more back and forth conversation between Glork and hasdgfas in between Pages 3 and 8 but again, nothing too telling yet. These two posts from hasdgfas really nailed it for me though, and I mentioned my initial problems with these posts back in my Post 182:

hasdgfas, who do you suspect?

there's a couple people who I'm a bit iffy about.

rolandgarros hasn't really contributed anything at all, and he definitely needs to post more.

Glork is....slightly off. I've seen him in other games (though not necessarily played with him), and in this game, he just seems to be playing differently than normal.
His post #10, mentioned by others, seemed to me to be completely unnecessary and trying to start an argument between myself and Incog.
His post #27 seems to be just looking for something to goad incog with, not actual scumhunting.

PF seems to be basing his thoughts completely off of meta-ing, which, while it can be sometimes useful, isn't necessarily the best way of searching for scum, since players should be attempting to not allow their metas to bring out their tells.

I'm watching roland and Glork most closely right now, with PF up there as well. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone I'm suspicious of, but if I remember it, I will post about it.


I also would like to say that I'm not a big fan of people making lists of players that they find pro-town, especially without reasoning.

If you're talking about Glork finding him town, I simply can't agree with that at this point.

What do you think of SSK? What did you think of Mizzy prior to her Gabe-card?

SSK. That's the one who I couldn't remember before. I didn't like his post #5 or #7. I don't like lists of people that someone finds protown unless they're specifically asked what they think about a person. I especially don't like it when it's just on "vibes." I mean, it's understandable that we somewhat want to find town, but it's more important to find scum, which SSK hasn't done at all. Looking closer at him, I feel comfortable with an

unvote, vote: mafiaSSK

Mizzy: except for her post #10 with all the qualifiers, she seems to be acting normally for her, so I'm not thinking she's scum at the moment.

In 164, hasdgfas's order of suspicions was as follows (seemingly): rolandgarros (now Elmo), Glork, and PokerFace. The funny thing is his case against Glork seemed the

strongest

in that he actually cited post numbers that he had problems with and all in all his total word count (I'm counting 69 words or so) is highest against Glork in that post as well, but yet somehow Glork is number 2 in his order of suspicions. Why not 1?

Then that horrible, terrible, really, really ridiculously bad Post 181. I didn't know what to make of it at the time because my reads on people weren't that great yet, but I knew something was wrong with it and that's why I questioned hasdgfas about it in my 182. Now that I've got a fairly solid town read on MafiaSSK (and therefore eldardad) that post looks even more awful. He voted for the person that... he didn't even bother to list in his 164! The person that he had completely forgotten about supposedly. Now that I'm leaning so town on SSK, that vote just looks like an attempt to place a vote on the person who was arguably the weakest player in the game. Interestingly in Glork's notes he had the following to say about hasdgfas's 181:

Incog's Post 182 is brilliant. At this point, I suspect weak distancing between Has and SSK.

Recently Glork did seem to change his view on SSK so it doesn't seem like the above quote from Glork holds much weight anymore, but I never read hasdgfas's vote on SSK as distancing anyway. Like I said, given the new information that I've drawn about SSK's possible alignment and my interpretation of Glork's play, if anything hasdgfas's 181 looks like a means to divert attention from Glork to shift it onto a person who probably seemed like a really easy target in SSK. Glork voted for hasdgfas eventually, kept his vote on him for the rest of Day 1 without ever really commenting on hasdgfas's vanilla claim, and then spoke out harshly against the people who jumped onto the late Elmo-wagon.

So what do I draw from these Day 1 interactions?

• If Glork is scum and hasdgfas is scum also, then the above interactions were used as a distancing mechanism. Both seemed to be at each other's necks for a good portion of the day but hasdgfas failed to vote for Glork despite the fact that hasdgfas seemed to have so many issues with his play.
  
  
• If Glork is town and hasdgfas is scum, then perhaps hasdgfas was a bit worried about taking on a town player as strong as Glork and therefore he chose to not vote for him.

Like I said, the relationship between Glork and hasdgfas seems more one-way since Glork's treatment of hasdgfas seems a bit more aggressive than hasdgfas's treatment of Glork but there's certainly something there between these two.

The day 2 interactions are there as well. hasdgfas started strong by voting Glork when Glork reached three votes, and he mentioned his issues with his play and why he believes Tar over Glork, but then he unvoted to wait for more things to develop. While others continued to discuss Glork and Tar to some length, hasdgfas took more of a backseat role focusing a bit on MafiaSSK and inserting side comments here and there to appear active. Then finally we get top of Page 21, Post 500 where he finally leans Glork-town and Tarhalindur-scum. Perhaps he was keeping up with the reading that whole time during Day 2 while arguments were still going on, but I don't get a sense of any logical progression from hasdgfas for him to come to a position where he switched from believing Tar over Glork to believing Glork over Tar. His "conclusion" seems more derived from the prevailing feelings at the time, i.e. people seem to be leaning towards believing Glork so I will believe Glork too. This could go two ways: if Glork is town, then hasdgfas realized that the possibility of Glork being mislynched wasn't as likely anymore; if Glork is scum, then hasdgfas realized that he doesn't need to bus his buddy anymore. Whatever the case, hasdgfas reads as scum throughout lol.

So yeah, I kinda typed this up at work so it might be a bit incoherent but that's the gist of it. The Tar/hasdgfas one should be shorter since there's less there, but I'll try to do that at a later time when I'm not as busy.

[Incognito]

You do realize the deadline's on Sunday right?

[Incognito]

I don't fully understand how Tar is now at L-2 with two players openly supporting his lynch but holding off on their votes.

I don't trust anyone who's selfhammered in the past as

town

to be put at -1 at a point where people are promising content. What's not to understand?

I may be misinterpreting this, but I don't think he's referring to you; I think he's referring to Mizzy and hasdgfas in particular.

Glork, before you go, I noticed hasdgfas was absent on your list. Where does he rank?

I'm not certain who my third scum in that pairing would be. Perhaps Mizzy for her iregular hop on MafiaSSK earlier, but I'm not sure.

Not entirely defending Mizzy or anything, but I've seen her done some weird shit like that as town before in Mini 568, Nubigena, so I don't think it's a scum-tell for her. It was quite clear that Lowell was going to be lynched, and she voted for Y for seemingly no reason whatsoever despite the fact that he had no votes on him.

[Incognito]

Oh nevermind, Glork. You covered that a bit in 588.

[Incognito]

Oh.

Sorry, Glork. =( That whole Lepton's Gambit just to take you down didn't really make much sense to me along with your flavor stuff. Meh. I'm glad I was at least correct about my huge FoS and my initial vote during Day 2 along with interpreting Tar's reads as contrived. I might as well place the hammer.

Unvote; Vote: Tarhalindur

I think all in all this was a fairly productive day 2.

[Incognito]

Major FoS: incog

Why?

[Incognito]

It doesn't really matter when the hammer happened; we derived enough information from today to figure things out from here. Besides, who's to say that Glork will actually get NK-ed tonight? Just because he was the competing claim with Tar doesn't mean he has to get NK-ed.

[Incognito]

Finally, Incog, now that we know I'm protown and that the Bouncer is also protown, I'd like you to comment on this:

One last thought: You seem to "have a hard time believing" a lot of things, Incog -- my belief that everyone was a dancer, the idea of there being two "protective" roles, that I could be prone to making a mistake in all of my hundreds of mafia games played. Yet, for the rant you just went on about me "making a big mistake," your extreme narrow-mindedness will prove to be an even larger detriment to this town if indeed you are protown. I want you to stop and think about that later on, once I'm dead. Because as soon as I die, ALL THREE of these things that you find so very "hard to believe" will have turned out to be true. And you'll be the one stuck scratching your head wondering how YOU could have been so off-base yourself.

Well, it appears I was wrong. I have the balls to admit that. You can consider me narrow-minded into saying that all of these were things were hard to believe, but I'm only using the information that I've gathered from the thread to formulate conclusions. I didn't have the added benefit of knowing your role PM to determine that you were telling the truth, and therefore certainly couldn't entirely see things from your perspective. Naturally all of these things would appear logical to you since you have that added information from your role PM that I simply don't have.

[Incognito]

Vote: hasdgfas

DING DING DING! I agree.

Vote: hasdgfas

[Incognito]

What wonderful reasoning here. Mind elaborating a bit please?

I believe I covered this already in my Post 569 even though that post was mainly focused on an analysis based on a Glork/hasdgfas scum pairing. The bottom of 569 is applicable to you directly though. I think your Day 2 play was particularly telling in that I never got the impression that you took a firm stance on either Glork or Tarhalindur; it looked like you were simply

waiting

to see which direction the two competing wagons would move instead of participating in the discussion during real time.

Your Post 182 also looks particularly bad now that Glork's alignment has been revealed. You had him listed in your number two spot despite the fact that your case against him was the strongest out of all three of your suspicions and then in that very same post, you voted for MafiaSSK, the person whom you couldn't even remember being suspicious of. It just looks to me like you were fearful of voting for Glork since you knew he was town and because he has a good reputation of being a good hunter so you chose to vote for a weaker target in MafiaSSK. I believe this was a point Erg0 was getting at back in post 184 as well:

I think I could see hasdgfas and MafiaSSK as buddies, based on the timing of hasdgfas' vote. Either that or hasdgfas is looking for a viable alternative wagon now that he's coming under pressure. I'm generally opposed to serious wagons on players like SSK at the start of the game, unless they have a history of only lurking as scum.

I also feel like hasdgfas would have gone after Glork a little harder if he were town.

So yeah, I think you're scum and that's why I'm voting for you.

[Incognito]

Yes, let's all vote without saying why! That'll win the game for the town. Good plan!

If you were reading the thread, you'd realize that my reasons for being suspicious of hasdgfas had already been covered.

[Incognito]

I've already responded to those questions already so my answering of your questions again would be a regurgitation/rehashing of stuff that I've already covered. After we had a self-admitted scum come forward, it just seemed like we had gotten enough information out of yesterday and the day before to be able to move forward from there on our own. That's all I can really say about that.

[Incognito]

Cross-posted with Mizzy. 615 was in response to hasdgfas.

Mizzy, how is that being defensive? I was included in that "let's all vote without saying why" twosome of people, and I responded to your 609 on my own behalf.

[Incognito]

I'm also not sure whether Incog answered my first question, so I'll ask it again. When you know how good a scumhunter someone like Glork can be, why wouldn't you be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt during Day 1?

I think I might have covered this when I was voting Glork on Day 1, but I'll say it again: I don't want to give anyone a big head or anything but the entire player list is filled with people who are pretty good scum hunters. Sure, Glork had a title of Paragon or what-have-you, but I'm sure every one of the people in this game could point to specific games where they did a pretty damn good job of hunting scum but didn't necessarily get recognition for it. In my opinion, Glork was acting scummy on Day 1, and I didn't see any reason why he of all the people in this game should have been excused for it. That's why I wasn't willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Incognito]

If there's someone alive who has a better meta on Erg0, I'm sheeping on everyone else's behavior toward him and would love to hear more. Just so we're clear on that.

Only played one game with Erg0 (Mini 554). We were both town in that game, and my overall impression of him so far is I feel like he was much more prolific in that game when compared to this one. He would be next in my suspicions list after hasdgfas.

hasdgfas, how do you feel about eldarad (MafiaSSK's replacement)? Since he's replaced in, I can't remember you mentioning another word of suspicion about him but yet you were all over MafiaSSK previously.

[Incognito]

hasdgfas, just in case you missed this before, here it is again:

hasdgfas, how do you feel about eldarad (MafiaSSK's replacement)? Since he's replaced in, I can't remember you mentioning another word of suspicion about him but yet you were all over MafiaSSK previously.

[Incognito]

Hm.

2.eldarad/mafiassk <go to this recently 'completed' game
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=8601
Compare mafiassk's play in that game to his play here. See if you have enough fingers to count the simularities. In both games he said lurking was a strategy. And in that game he was the scum leader. I don't think Elderad's late jump on the Glork wagon was a town sign.

Check this out though: MafiaSSK referencing game

It's pretty bad that this post wasn't deleted since it does reference this ongoing game, but I'm willing to take this post as pretty much clearing eldarad as town. PF, did you not notice this in your read-through of that game? What are your thoughts about it?

Also when SSK was active in our game, I believe he brought up that Smalltown Mafia game where he was scum, and his voting scheme was much more volatile in that game when compared to this one. I pretty much felt like that he cleared him as town in this game as well.

[Incognito]

Aside from Erg0's prolificness being low, are there any other reasons you may suspect him? I seem to remember you having and exchange of views earlier, when Erg0 voted Tarhalindur over Glork.

I'm guessing you're talking about my post 483? That post was pointing out something that I found to be flawed in the logic that Erg0 used to clear Glork as town. I eventually FoS'ed him here:

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

FoS: Erg0

because his 484 looked like a slip revealing that he knew I was town. His response to my FoS was as follows:

Meh. Everyone other than Glork and Tar is assumed town until tomorrow.

So yeah. Maybe it was a slip, maybe it wasn't but that's another thing that does bother me about Erg0. I owe this game an analysis post or two or three now that we have known scum. Deadline is........ holy shit, the 14th. I should have that soon, hopefully.

[Incognito]

Mizzy, you know at the time that you placed the MafiaSSK vote, I thought that you were placing it simply to get him talking a bit more (i.e. using your vote as a pressure vote). Now that I look back on it though and actually read your post a bit closer, I noticed that you mentioned you would be comfortable with actually

lynching

him in that post:

All of you yesterday who were willing to lynch someone for being useless? *Points to SSK.* I would rather get him replaced but considering that he keeps answering his prods (gnashing of teeth is heard) then I'd be okay

lynching him

.

Vote: SSK

And now recently, you mentioned that you could see only one reason for his active lurking here:

The only reason I could see for him active-lurking was that he felt uncomfortable with what was going on, maybe because his scumbuddy was running a gambit.

I have an issue with the above quote. Back when you placed the SSK vote, it was still very unclear for most of us to determine which of the two (Glork or Tarhalindur) was lying. In that very same post where you voted SSK, you yourself didn't give any clear indication that you believed Glork over Tar or the inverse; you mentioned that you would just like to look at a completely different target. So yeah, I'm having a hard time believing that you were actually thinking what you mentioned in the above quote because in your SSK vote post, you indicated that you were very confused by the two competing claims.

Either way though, even if you did believe Glork over Tarhalindur don't you think your first order of business should have been getting Tarhalindur out of the way in order to determine if the theory you mentioned above (SSK actively lurking because he was feeling uncomfortable with his scumbuddy running a gambit) actually held true? Because suppose this theory didn't hold true and SSK got lynched and turned up town, where would we be today exactly? Glork and Tarhalindur would likely still be alive, and we'd still have no clue as to which of the two we should believe. Also, why aren't you voting for eldarad now if you truly believe SSK was actively lurking due to uncomfortableness with his scumbuddy's false claim? Do you still think this theory is likely true?

[Incognito]

Heh. Normally it's Patrick who I feel I'm sharing the same brain with in Mafia games but it looks like this time, Ether, it's you. I agree with your town-list deduction with a slight pause on Mizzy. I'm still leaning town on her but it's more like town with a big, bold question mark.

[Incognito]

I'm pretty sure Ether's "challenge" was in reference to the fact that she pretty much made a post clearing a bunch of people as town in her eyes (including eldarad who is kinda like the competing wagon for today) but after it kinda sat there for two days nobody who might have opposed it (*ahem* hasdgfas *ahem* and *ahem* PokerFace *ahem*) bothered to comment. The obvious line of questioning from the nay-sayers would have been "Ether, what convinces you that the person I'm

voting

for (or am suspicious of) is town?". Interestingly, this questioning only came from hasdgfas and others after Ether offered the challenge. So yeah, I still feel absolutely magnificent about my hasdgfas vote.

[Incognito]

You are saying that if they had questioned it earlier as opposed to later, it wouldn't have been a scumtell, but because they questioned it after she "challenged" that it IS a scumtell?

Yes, this is true. If hasdgfas truly felt that eldarad was scum and therefore vote-worthy, he should have immediately come into the thread and questioned Ether as to why she felt he was cleared as town. Waiting until only

after

Ether offered her challenge seems fairly scummy to me. hasdgfas even waited until after I questioned him about eldarad/MafiaSSK just to lay out his case and vote for him. In all fairness though, this could have been partially related to timing rather than having an association with my questioning of him, but I'm sure you get the point.

But I was hoping for something more substantial that shows Eld as town...or was there something else I missed?

I'm not sure of Ether's method of arriving at this conclusion either, but I know my own. I suppose you'll have to ask Ether herself.

[Incognito]

If you could see it as timing in one case, why not in the other?

Because in one case, you yourself mentioned that it was timing-related so I was giving you the benefit of the doubt. In the other case, your posting history looks semi-decent so I'm less willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

[Incognito]

In addition, Ether's two posts had very different tones. One said she was more sure eldarad was town, and I understand that people feel differently about other players. However, her second post mentioned her 'clearing' of eldarad. That, when I do feel like someone is scum, requires a comment much more than simply thinking someone town.

Are you talking about these two posts:

I noticed the reference, but I don't think that's a tell either way. He didn't appear to have any better examples he could cite.

Also, on Glork, he seems to be scum trying to act like town by not paying a lot of attention to me. He didn't do that much suspecting of me at the beginning-now of me. So I'll do a

FOS:Glork

At this point, after doing the conversation with Glork in-thread, I'm inclined to believe his more.

This switch,

because

it required prompting every inch of the way, just feels genuine to me.

But Eldarad still needs to post.

I am even more sure now that Eldarad is town. There is one situation in which my newest tell on him would cease to be true, but I don't find it at all likely. I'd rather not get into it right now. He and Mizzy really need to stop fighting.

Here is where Ether issued her challenge:

I am taken aback by the reaction to my stunningly insightful clearing of Eldarad.

This challenge came two days after 653 and then you finally commented on her 653 only after the challenge post. That's what I'm getting at.

[Incognito]

Current deadline: July 14th, 4:00 PM EST

Hm. People should begin placing their votes where their mouths are very, very soon.

[Incognito]

PokerFace was back and forth on Tar a little on day 1, but there definitely looked like a possible link existed. What I really don't like about him, though, is that he was the only person who found the obvious hole in my (stated) reasoning for believing Glork over Tar on day 2 (here), but he didn't do anything about it. His timidity in defending Tar makes me think that he knew Tar was scum and didn't want to be seen as directly supporting him.

Erg0, can you point out where specifically in that large post from PokerFace that he found the obvious hole in your reasoning for believing Glork over Tar? I could've sworn your change in stance on the Glork/Tar stuff came here: Post 463 which came two posts after PF's 461.

Caffy Taffy, I got this from a Laffy Taffy: What's an owl's favorite subject? -- Owlgebra!

[Incognito]

Even though I agree that Cow is probably scum,

I still get some interestingly scummy vibes from Incog

, maybe that's why I read his posting so far today as being defensive and overly so. Probably just me, but that's how I feel.

Oh, before anything earth-shaking happens, here's my scumdar, 1 being town-reading and 10 being scum-reading. 5 = undecided.

scotmany12 - 1
Elmo - 1
Erg0 - 2

Incognito - 4

Ether - 5
eldarad - 6
hasdgfas - 8
PokerFace - 9

When did this happen? Also, when did you decide that PokerFace was scummy? I don't remember you mentioning much about him all day.

[Incognito]

5 hours to deadline and I'd still like an answer to this question before night hits.

A question to all before I'm lynched, as there's no way it's going to change unless something really weird happens.
When I flip town, who are you going after? Don't avoid the question by saying that it doesn't matter either.

hasdgfas, tough question but if you flip town and if I'm still around tomorrow, I will likely take a closer look at PF, Erg0, and Mizzy. Most of the other players I still feel pretty good about.

[Incognito]

Pretty sure he is scum. His interaction with tar early day 1 (tar votes for him, while attacking ether for a "veiled attack on ergo"), tar was trying to distance here. Ergo then attempts to distance with tar during day 2. He places a nonchalant vote on tar for reasons i still don't understand. I had problems with him clearing Glork because of his day 1 actions. Regardless of how he acts, I believe Glork to be a magnet for night actions on night 1 simply do to his reputation, and as pf says, everyone makes mistakes. So I think ergo was just looking for a reason to vote for tar over glork.

Last day, I wasn't thrilled with his dead-scum analysis (i didn't really see it as helpful) and him basically ignoring the cow wagon. Instead he places a vote on PF, a throw away vote. Despite calling cow scummy, he knew that he was going to come up town, so he stayed off the wagon.

There is also his activity issues, his vote on elmo, and yes, I believe it was a slip when he referenced Incog as town when they were discussing the opening flavor.

I certainly agree with all of this. In addition, the point that Ether was trying to get at yesterday with respect to Erg0 seems particularly damning on its own. Erg0 seemed to have a really difficult time clearing people as town. Now, obviously when a person is scum-hunting, he/she should be fairly leery/critical of each person individually to make sure one is making the right choice concerning a person's alignment but there should come a point in time in a game where you begin to lean a particular direction on people (including leaning town) and Erg0 failed to do this with a large portion of the players in the game. This was the highest praise Erg0 provided for anyone in his wrap-up of players:

At this point, I'm feeling best about Elmo and scot, based on consistency from both and what appears in hindsight to be a fairly opportunistic wagon hop onto Elmo by Tar on day 1.

but prior to this praise, he still managed to cast little seeds of doubt about Elmo in particular here:

Elmo seems to have some suspicions of Tar from the point where he replaces in, and the case he gives when voting him on day 2 is solid. The WIFOM part of my brain is whispering that he's trying too hard, but I can see why he'd want to give some good reasoning when putting someone within claim range so early on day 2.

Games oftentimes become like an aperture where the number of viable suspects available to scum for mislynching can decrease as the game goes on so scum have a tendency to try and make that "aperture" as wide as they can by continuously planting seeds of doubt in the minds of players instead of attempting to clear people as town. I feel like that's what Erg0 was doing with a number of players in his summaries post.

[Incognito]

I did actually vote Tar on day 1 - saying that I didn't take it further is incorrect.

You left your vote on him only for one real-life day though, and you never really pushed your vote to the point that a wagon on him could actually gain traction despite mentioning that he was your strongest suspect:

Tarhalindur is lurky and the reasoning behind his votes is pretty thin. Unlike SSK, he seems to want to appear to be trying to hunt scum. My previous experience with him leads me think he's playing to his scum meta. He's my strongest suspect right now.

The very next real-life day you switched your vote to Elmo after Patrick reasonless voted for him where you cited that the day's lynch really boiled down to only two players: hasdgfas or Elmo.

Looks like it's basically hasdgfas or Elmo, then.

I've pretty much overlooked Elmo up to this point due to his general lurkishness and agreeability (perhaps that was the point). I'm very concerned by his lack of activity as deadline approaches, though. His summary posts certainly show that he's done the reading, so I can't see any good reason for him not to have voted by now. I'm inclined to think that he was hoping to just throw a vote on the leading wagon (as foreshadowed by his suspicion of hasdgfas), but now doesn't want to draw attention to himself by casting the vote that pushes hasdgfas over the threshold for a deadline lynch. I'm not sure that he's quite as obvscum as Tar would have us believe, but I want to at least see a claim from him before deadline.

Unvote, Vote: Elmo

Prior to your vote, Elmo only had two votes (Tarhalindur and Patrick) which would mean that if you truly felt Tarhalindur was scummy, you could have easily tried to push something further to try and help get him lynched. It's not like fully developed wagons were formed at that time; a good portion of the votes seemed fairly tentative. Further, if Tarhalindur was your strongest suspect, I would expect you to question the motivation behind the Elmo-wagon much more than you did rather than going ahead and actually lending your support for it.

[Incognito]

Incog adds another vote to pressurise Elmo into voting following a prod.

Which looks opportunistic, IMO

Mmmm... I'm not really sure how that vote looks opportunistic; dude had only one other vote on him prior to mine. Elmo had replaced into the game on the 16th of May and made two posts over the week and a half that followed that kept promising content as the deadline loomed closer and closer. His predecessor didn't really provide us with much either so my read on rolandgarros/Elmo was practically non-existent. I was using my vote as a means to pressure him into providing something for once to get a feel for where he stands and to hopefully get a better read on him.

Incognito is also "inclined to believe" Hascow's vanilla claim. Unvotes and votes for Glork.

But he was voting for Elmo at the time, not Hascow. WTF?

Correct. Like I mentioned above, I was using my Elmo-vote as a pressure vote to finally drive some content from him. I thought the content he provided following the pressure vote was fairly decent so my only problem with him at that point was how long it took for him to provide said content. On Day 1, I did think that hasdgfas looked fairly scummy, and I mentioned that my decision of whether or not to vote for him was pending his response:

At this point, I'm still unsure who I would like to see lynched. My take on the hasdgfas wagon is pending his response. I don't like how he's gone lurker-ish in the face of these accusations.

His claim of vanilla made me less inclined to think that he was scum, so I went with a Glork-vote because I thought he was acting the scummiest on Day 1 (I covered this a number of times but in particular here and here).

So yeah, I agree with your assessment of Erg0 and do think he's likely scum, but I obviously disagree with your determination that I'm scum as well.

[Incognito]

Cross-posted.

Incog, your post #719 and #722 have some pretty good points against Erg0, which thus far he has failed to defend against effectively, but I don't even see so much as a minor FoS. Why is that?

Consider my vote to be on him already. I didn't want to place an immediate vote on him like I did last time with hasdgfas because I held an assumption about someone in this game that I'm not really sure holds true anymore so I'd rather wait before placing my vote.

[Incognito]

I FoS-ed him a loooooooooooong time ago and that never really changed. =)

[Incognito]

Right at this moment it's because doing so would place him at L-1. I feel like we could get a bit more out of this day, and I don't want to place him so close to lynch yet.

[Incognito]

Right at this moment it's because doing so would place him at L-1. I feel like we could get a bit more out of this day, and I don't want to place him so close to lynch yet.

So who do you think would quickhammer Erg0 if you put Erg0 at L-1?
Why do you think they would quicklynch so soon?

If Erg0 is scum, he himself might self-vote to prevent us from gaining any additional information from today.

[Incognito]

I should write more stuff and do more things. Struggling to be motivated to do anything.. pretty much okay with killing Erg0. Infact, I might just proxy my vote to Incognito indefinitely, hah. Like.. at what point is it okay to put Erg0 at -1 if we're worried about self-lynching?

I don't understand your reasoning as to why you'd proxy your vote to me. Our deadline for this day is next week. Therefore it should follow logically that if I'd like to get more information from this day by preventing a self-hammer, I would be placing my vote on Erg0 closer to the deadline. Duh. Do you have any other reasoning that would make you want to vote for me?

It worries me that PF is apparently the only person who's interested in actually having a discussion today.

Odd. I could have sworn that I too mentioned that I wanted to continue discussion today.

In other news, Mizzy seems pretty obviously town by now. Discussion of the possibility of her being scum should probably draw to a close.

[Incognito]

I don't understand your reasoning as to why you'd proxy your vote to me. Our deadline for this day is next week. Therefore it should follow logically that if I'd like to get more information from this day by preventing a self-hammer, I would be placing my vote on Erg0 closer to the deadline. Duh. Do you have any other reasoning that would make you want to vote for me?

By "proxy" he means he wants to just vote for the same people as you for the rest of the game.

Oh. Hahaha... All this time while playing on MS, I thought proxy meant something like a pseudovote or something.

Odd. I could have sworn that I too mentioned that I wanted to continue discussion today.

Allow me to rephrase: nobody is the only person who's interested in having a discussion about who to lynch. I've seen no reaction from you to the three big posts I made on the last page, so what is it that you want to discuss, exactly?

Yes, I was at work at the time that I made Post 750 so I wasn't inclined to respond to your large posts. Now I'm home so I will.

Firstly, that summary technique is not something that I just made up for this game. As noted above, I've used it before to good effect. As I said to Ether yesterday, the point isn't to clear people - it's very rare that anyone will get through a whole game without doing

something

that looks potentially suspicious in hindsight.

I realize that your "analysis of dead scum" summary technique is not something you made up for this game. In Mini 554, Mafia in Vollville, you used the exact same type of summary technique particularly at endgame when trying to determine the scum between Jitsu and Matt_S. I have no issue with the technique itself; I just felt like one too many of your reads on people in this particular game seemed a bit too... "dirty" for lack of a better term. I felt like the Vollville analysis that you made led you to a pretty clear conclusion that Jitsu was more likely to be town in your eyes when compared to Matt_S which was basically the reason you ended up voting Matt_S over him. I didn't get that same impression from your technique in this OGML game. Not sure how much of this is related to larger selection size here (trying to decide between 7 or so players) when compared to Vollville (trying to decide between 2).

A couple of points:
1. When I made that Elmo vote there were less than 24 hours until the deadline.
2. Elmo had three votes when I voted for him - PokerFace was also on the wagon.

In response to point 2, I did miscount the number of votes that Elmo had at the time of his Day 1 wagon. Sorry about that.

In response to point 1, I guess the point you're trying to get at is you wanted to secure a lynch on a person whom you might have overlooked during D1 who did look scummy at the time? That still doesn't really explain your lack of hesitancy when you decided to vote for Elmo though. Again, you stated fairly confidently when voting for Tarhalindur during Day 1 that his play in this game reminded you of his previous Tar-scum play. Why would you not be more leery of the developing Elmo wagon that was forming during Day 1 when it was Tarhalindur, the person you were voting for and highly suspicious of, who was leading the charge on that wagon?

[Incognito]

Also, Erg0, is there any reason you're not currently voting for PokerFace?

[Incognito]

I think you're getting confused, I thought PF was scummier than hasdgfas. hasdgfas was the scummiest of those three players, but PF was the scummiest player in the entire game.

Right, so why didn't you go after his lynch if you thought he was the better scumbet?

Mizzy, I think you're confused. Erg0's comment was made in response to Ether's question here:

Erg0, what led you to drop the counterwagon Tar pushed for hasdgfas's sake on Day 1 and put him on par with Eldarad and Mizzy in your final summary?

I haven't dropped it, but it's a little circumstantial. Of the three I'd rate hasdgfas as most likely to be scum, but I'd rather lynch PF before any of them.

Ether was asking Erg0 about three people: you, eldarad, and hasdgfas. He said that of the three people Ether asked about, he'd rank hasdgfas as the scummiest. But his prime suspect was still PokerFace at that point and that's why he pushed for PF's lynch.

[Incognito]

I think you're getting confused, I thought PF was scummier than hasdgfas. hasdgfas was the scummiest of those three players, but PF was the scummiest player in the entire game.

lol?

[Incognito]

I think you're getting confused, I thought PF was scummier than hasdgfas. hasdgfas was the scummiest of those three players, but PF was the scummiest player in the entire game.

lol?

I was still talking with him about it. Must you

always

take it upon yourself to answer other people's defenses?

I wasn't taking it upon myself to answer in his defense. He had already explained what he was getting at but you still continued to question the point when your questioning wasn't making sense and wasn't really

going

anywhere. You were going around and around in a circle when your question had already been answered before. I didn't see the point in your continuous circling so I tried to help clarify to you so that you could understand that your questioning was just leading in circles. In other words, I was trying to point you to something more productive than the point you were bringing up repeatedly. You say "always" (I've bolded and underlined it) like this is something I've done before in this game. Can you point to other instances where I've done so?

[Incognito]

Yeah, I realize that, and I get annoyed when people respond for others also so sorry about that. I just felt like responding to your back and forth in this particular case because it seemed like while your intentions were fine, your questioning was slightly misguided, that's all.

[Incognito]

Um. Pokerface. You still with us?

[Incognito]

I see my name being thrown around here quite a bit as a possible scummee but yet no case is being made against me. If anyone (*cough* PF and eldarad *cough cough*) would like to make a case against me, then stop being a pussy about it, be my guest, and I'll gladly respond to it. This half-ass attack shit is extremely lame and is borderline scummy.

Anyway, the only times I've played with Mizzy before this game, I've been scum so maybe she'd like to add her two cents about how my play here has compared to my play as scum. I'm pretty sure the difference is quite dramatic enough that she would have more to say about me if I was scum here. Erg0 has played a completed game with me before when I was town so it's funny to me how he's mentioned he's trying to determine which of the three (eldarad, me, and PF) is likely to be scum especially when he supposedly "nearly had me checked off as obvtown" in his summary post. scotmany12's another one who has played a completed game with me before as town and has played a completed game with me as scum so I trust that his read of me is pretty solid as well.

I hafta say I don't really see IncogScum. I think it's some variant of Eldarad / Erg0 / PF. Seeya.

QFT. I still don't think eldarad is scum though. His semi-attack on me is a bit strange, but I think it's more misguided than scummy at this point. I don't usually link people together before seeing alignments revealed but since

some

people seem to want to link me all over the place, I'll reveal what I'm thinking: At this point, I think we're dealing with an Erg0/PF scum team mainly due to PF's treatment of Tarhalindur during Day 1, Erg0's extremely late D3 deadline push of a PF-wagon (probable distancing but just late enough to not result in a lynch and not be considered bussing), and PF's general lurkiness. His inability to commit a vote to Glork or Tarhalindur despite mentioning his pro-Glorkscum stance and then eventual switch to a Tarhalindur-scum stance is also pretty telling.

[Incognito]

I think your claim is beyond bogus and is pretty much the perfect claim for scum to make.

Bah, that deadline kind of crept up. Better claim, though I'm not sure that this is such a good idea.

First, deadline's on like Friday or so. Second, why is this not such a good idea?

I shouldn't comment any further on the current situation, as I strongly suspect that it would be anti-town.

Why would it be anti-town?

[Incognito]

Actually, I have a feeling I know what you're getting at, but I still don't believe your claim.

What do you consider to be ideal miller strategy?

[Incognito]

Does anyone else have any comments or things they'd like to get in especially with relation to this claim? I'm about ready to vote for Erg0.

[Incognito]

Um, okaaaaaay. Elaborate on this:

I did go out on a limb a couple of times trying to draw a nightkill, and that's probably been my downfall.

When did you go out on a limb a few times to try to draw an NK and why would that lead to your downfall?

I do have reasoning for not believing the claim, and I don't know if going too in-depth into these reasons would be helpful or hurtful at this point.

[Incognito]

Don't act all affronted, what was the point of asking me about miller strategy if you're not even going to acknowledge the answer? Even if you have some other reason to suspect me, shouldn't you be trying to persuade others to vote for me? You seem to have made the assumption that I'm just going to hammer myself when you put me at lynch-1, which I'll guarantee is not going to happen. I'm almost inclined to ask you to elaborate, as the only thing I can think of that you could possibly have against me is accounted for by my claim - hence it could not be a reason in itself to ignore me.

Basically, to put this as succinctly as possible, I don't believe the claim because of game balance issues and what I'm perceiving this set-up to look like in my mind. If we assume a three scum team and if my thoughts are correct about how I'm envisioning this set-up, I think a miller would dramatically tip this game in favor of the scum. The complete absence of a miller seems to make the game just about right. Couple this with the case(s) that has/have already been laid out against you, and I just believe you're mafia.

Also, I don't see why I would need to persuade others to vote for you. At least two other people (Elmo and Mizzy) have repeatedly expressed their intent to vote for you today as well, which would put you above and beyond the required number of votes necessary for a lynch even in the absence of a self-hammer. My bringing up of a self-hammer wasn't an assumption that I used to calculate whether or not you'd actually make it to lynch; it was my explanation for why I didn't bother to vote you to L-1 earlier on.

As far as your last question, I thought that my psychic prediction of Tar's scumminess on day 2 had about a 50/50 chance of making me look to the scum like I was a cop. I'm pretty sure that it ended up drawing the wrong kind of attention from the town.

I did go out on a limb a couple of times trying to draw a nightkill, and that's probably been my downfall.

Your response to my question makes no sense to me. The only people who could have known with absolute certainty whether or not Tarhalindur was lying about his claim would be an actual cop who had a guilty on Tar or the scum themselves. How could you possibly go out on a limb to try to draw an NK by making a psychic prediction of Tar's scumminess when, if you really are a miller, you simply didn't have enough information about Tar's alignment to be able to go out on this limb? "Going out on a limb to draw an NK" implies that you knew information as it was happening during real time.

[Incognito]

Heard enough.

Vote: Erg0

[Incognito]

Mizzy, did PF FoS people in the Newbie game you played together?

[Incognito]

At this point, I think we're dealing with an Erg0/PF scum team mainly due to PF's treatment of Tarhalindur during Day 1, Erg0's extremely late D3 deadline push of a PF-wagon (probable distancing but just late enough to not result in a lynch and not be considered bussing), and PF's general lurkiness. His inability to commit a vote to Glork or Tarhalindur despite mentioning his pro-Glorkscum stance and then eventual switch to a Tarhalindur-scum stance is also pretty telling.

Vote: PokerFace

[Incognito]

I'm sure a prod will do the trick.

[Incognito]

My take on scot's investigation choices are as follows.

Night 1's target was likely Tarhalindur despite the fact that scotmany12 ended Day 1 with his vote on hasdgfas. I say this mainly because of what happened during Day 3 which I'll get into below but here's what we have at the start of D2:

I have no idea what to make of the bouncer thing at this moment. I would like elmo to comment on it. Right now I am most suspicious of Tar and Hasgdfas

Vote: Tarh

I reread his case on elmo, and I don't see what the problem really is. I don't get what the problem is for asking questions; it is a part of scumhunting. His long post isn't jsut summary either, he does have some of his own opinions in it. And then, in relation to elmo's second long post, he says this:

and he suddenly claims to be "unmoved" by has's claim despite never showing any strong feelings about has previously.

This is not true. Elmo says that his deadline vote most likely goes to cow, and it isn't like he totally ignored cow when he made his first longer post.

Then I have problems with his other attacks...he attacks cow for pushing for an ssk lynch, when he also has ssk in his scumgroup. First he forgets to put cow in his analysis, and then he makes a bs reason to be suspicious of him. Right now I think they are scumbuddies together. Also, he attacks incog for attacking glork simply cause he is the player the scum would want dead. And I'm still not satisfied with his early vote on ergo.

I re-read overnight, and your scumgroup is Tarh, Cow, SSK.

I agree with you on cow and tar, but I'm still unsure about SSK. Until he actually provides something to this game I don't have a read on him.

At the bottom of the above quote, scot does mention something about being uncertain about SSK but ends it by mentioning that he has no read on him. My guess is SSK wasn't his investigation choice N1. He voted for Tarhalindur immediately after Glork placed the first vote on, and I placed the second. It seems likely that scot was trying to first gauge reactions to his comment about Tarh and hasdgfas and second conceal his role by making sure to nicely time the placement of his vote to not make his role so obvious. He then never removes his vote but at that point, he would have been pretty certain that Tarhalindur was lying since it would seem unlikely to have two FBI agents within the game.

Start of D3 we have this:

Vote: hasdgfas

It seems likely that scotmany12 investigated hasdgfas during N2 and Erg0-Framer chose hasdgfas as his frame-job target. He then followed that a few posts later with the following:

To answer cow, Mizzy and Ergo. However, you most likely will not flip town, but I will still be looking at those two the most.

Again, scotmany12 seemed absolutely certain that hasdgfas would flip scum upon a lynch. At this point, he definitely wouldn't have known a Framer was in the set-up.

D4 dawns and we get this:

Vote: ergo

Very likely that scotmany12 investigated Erg0 as guilty during N3. One thing I'm somewhat curious about is this though:

There is also his activity issues, his vote on elmo, and yes, I believe it was a slip when he referenced Incog as town when they were discussing the opening flavor.

Based on the above quote, I'm kiiiinda, sorta wondering if scot might have investigated Elmo N1 and me N3. It seems more likely that he investigated Erg0 N3 but still, just something I was wondering about.

@Incognito,

you seem to think I am scum due partly to how I interacted with Tarhalindur. You do realize that, that is one reason Erg0 sited for voting me on day3, correct? You are using reasons known scum had for voting me, in order to vote me yourself?!

Yes, I do realize that, but I don't see why that's problematic. Is it not plausible for scum to attempt to bus one of his buddies?

Basically, here's where I'm at right now:

• Elmo is town. Both Erg0-scum
  and
  Tarhalindur-scum pushed a D1 wagon on him when a wagon on hasdgfas-town was readily available for them to pounce on.
  
  
• Mizzy is town. Obv.

By process of elimination, that would leave you and eldarad. My town read of eldarad is mainly based on his late push of Glork during Day 2 when the tides were clearly shifting towards Tarhalindur at that point (scum would likely just bus at that point instead of attempt to push a late townie wagon), MafiaSSK's comment in that other game thread that I mentioned in one of my previous posts, and a previous Ether-post which made a good amount of sense to me as well:

I noticed the reference, but I don't think that's a tell either way. He didn't appear to have any better examples he could cite.

Also, on Glork, he seems to be scum trying to act like town by not paying a lot of attention to me. He didn't do that much suspecting of me at the beginning-now of me. So I'll do a

FOS:Glork

At this point, after doing the conversation with Glork in-thread, I'm inclined to believe his more.

This switch,

because

it required prompting every inch of the way, just feels genuine to me.

But Eldarad still needs to post.

By process of elimination, that would pretty much leave you.

[Incognito]

Btw, I'm thinking we should mass claim at this point. Does anyone agree or disagree with this?

[Incognito]

Now, here's a question. Why do you think it took them so long to kill Scot? Do you think he was roleblocked at all or do you think the scummers don't have a roleblocker? If set-up speculation is unwanted, please let me know. I'm just pondering things.

I don't think the scum have a roleblocker. I think they kept scot alive for so long because a Framer is a powerful scum role especially since Tarhalindur announced to the entire world that scotmany12 was the cop. This meant at least two things:

1) The scum knew that the town would be keeping an eye on scot to see how he voted and who his likely investigation targets were.

2) The scum could also observe scotmany in an attempt to figure out which townies he might investigate during the night, and they could go ahead and frame that person the same night.

Just look at what happened to hasdgfas. In fact after hasdgfas came up town, I was at first paranoid that maybe scotmany wasn't who I thought he was (hence, I didn't vote for Erg0 right away at the start of Day 4) and then I figured that maybe scot really was the cop after all but the scum might have a Framer and that's why hasdgfas flipped as town even though he was likely investigated by scot as guilty. After Erg0 claimed Miller, I pretty much knew scot had to be the cop, and I knew Erg0 was lying since I thought it very unlikely that a mini-normal set-up would have

two

roles (a miller and a framer) to mess up cop investigations. That would seem insanely imbalanced against town. Erg0 probably would have been better off claiming Vanilla haha.

[Incognito]

So. El and el, how's that reread coming along?

Mizzy, you can probably either decide the claim order, or we can just randomize.

[Incognito]

Loooooooooong post. I'll respond to the immediate concern and maybe comment on the other stuff when I get more time.

Just look at what happened to hasdgfas. In fact after hasdgfas came up town, I was at first paranoid that maybe scotmany wasn't who I thought he was (hence, I didn't vote for Erg0 right away at the start of Day 4) and then I figured that maybe scot really was the cop after all but the scum might have a Framer and that's why hasdgfas flipped as town even though he was likely investigated by scot as guilty.

After Erg0 claimed Miller, I pretty much knew scot had to be the cop, and I knew Erg0 was lying since I thought it very unlikely that a mini-normal set-up would have

two

roles (a miller and a framer) to mess up cop investigations. That would seem insanely imbalanced against town.

Erg0 probably would have been better off claiming Vanilla haha.

Hey wait a second... Look at what I bolded there. If you are saying you thought/knew? there was a framer

and a miller?

then either..
A) You just made a slip implying you knew of a framer (that would make you scum)
B) You must have actually meant to say Jail Keeper
C) I am reading wrongly.

Here's what I'm saying: I think scotmany12 investigated hasdgfas as "Guilty" during Night 2 and that's the reason he chose to vote for him at the start of Day 3 with the level of certainty that he used. After hasdgfas was lynched at the end of Day 3 and flipped town, I figured that somewhere within the scum team there had to be a Framer since I still believed that scotmany12 had to be the cop just based on his actions. Just from reading what scot had written, it looked to me like scot had investigated hasdgfas the night before and found him "guilty" but yet hasdgfas managed to flip innocent thus implying some sort of a frame-job.

You just quoted Glork where he mentioned that he would be Jailkeeping scotmany12 during Night 2. I don't think Glork followed through with that. Reason being: If Glork thought everything through and convinced himself that scotmany12 really was the Cop, his ideal play would have been to NOT jailkeep scotmany12 and instead to try and use the roleblocker functionality of his role to hopefully block the scum kill. Why? Because he would have realized that scum probably wouldn't take the risk of attempting to kill scotmany12 when there was the possibility of him being protected by Glork (thus if the scum had taken this route and tried to kill scot while he was being protected, that would have completely confirmed both Glork and scotmany12 as town), Glork would be allowing scotmany12 the chance at gaining an extra Night's worth of investigation instead of having scot's abilities jailkept, and considering how much praise Glork was receiving throughout this game, he would have realized that scum wanted to get rid of him exponentially more now that they realized that he was practically confirmed town due to the Glork/Tar showdown, he held a power role, and he had that good scum-hunting reputation.

Simply put

: Glork would have known that unless he roleblocked the scum, he was going to die that night and there was no way scum would even think about killing scot.

When Erg0 claimed Miller, I knew he was lying because like I said above, I knew there had to be a Framer somewhere within the scum team. When he claimed, I thought that if we assumed he was telling the truth that would basically mean that two whole roles (a Framer and a Miller) could eff around with cop investigations thus making the Cop practically useless. That wouldn't make sense and would be way too imbalanced against town. Thus, that's why I felt Erg0's Miller claim looked beyond bogus especially coupled with all of the evidence against him.

[Incognito]

PF, 3 of 5 people agree to mass claim which makes a majority already. Time to step up to the batter's box.

[Incognito]

I still call a Tar-Erg0-Incog scumteam. PF is second choice for a lynch Today by default.

eldarad, please comment on this comment from Erg0 in response to me:

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

[Incognito]

PF:

I'll try to respond to your longer posts hopefully tomorrow or Tuesday. I'm in the process of moving so I only have time for little side comments right now.

elly d:

Um. Do you not get it?

Also, if you can find flavour in the first post then I'm pretty sure that scum could find it too.

Well yeah. This was in response to you supporting Tar's claim somewhat on the basis of the flavour. Personally, I'm taking the flavour with a pinch of salt since Glork's flavour doesn't really make sense. I didn't take flavour into account at all when I weighed up the competing Tar-Glork claims.

Erg0's statement was

a slip

that practically confirms me

as town

. I'm not bringing that statement up in reference to flavor; I'm bringing it up because if you're town, then you should pretty much accept me as confirmed town. If you are unwilling to do so, then I'll have to assume that you're scum and that my vote is in the wrong place right now.

[Incognito]

Mizzy, the only way that quote makes literal sense is if the person who it was directed to is town. "If

you

could find flavor in the first post, then I'm pretty sure that

scum

could find it too." If you look back, I FoS-ed Erg0 for it, and he immediately covered his tracks saying the following:

Meh. Everyone other than Glork and Tar is assumed town until tomorrow.

scot himself saw it as a slip as well:

There is also his activity issues, his vote on elmo, and yes, I believe it was a slip when he referenced Incog as town when they were discussing the opening flavor.

[Incognito]

~Responding to PF's large post~

I agree with you on Elmo and Mizzy being town BUT you cannot forget that Me and Patrick were also on Elmo's wagon. If you believe I am scum, then you must now also be willing to believe that all 3 scum were willing to be on the same day one wagon with Patrick at deadline. A wagon that would therefore be 3/4's scum driven and would ineventably end in a townie mislynch with the assumption Elmo is town.
(Talk about being on a suicidal scum fail boat!)
http://failblog.org/tag/failboat/

This defense hinges completely on WIFOM though. I agree with you that an entire scum grouping

typically

will not all pounce on the same player at the same time, but it's not a possibility that can be completely ruled out. I just modded a Mini Normal where the Day 1 lynch had all three (3) members of the scum team (Oman, Gamma, and Goatrevolt) on the Syrial-town wagon and that very same scum team went on to win the game. Mind you, my deadline lynch rules were different from this OGML-mod game but nevertheless, it still happened. And if Elmo really is town, then the choice to NK Patrick could have been used for this very purpose - to attempt to "clear" one of the scums as town through a WIFOM defense like you are using right now.

As far as why I see that as problematic and could not possibly be Erg0 bussing me consider the following, from the mafiascum wiki:

Bussing

is the act of distancing yourself from your partners, usually by helping to lynch them. The term comes from the phrase "to throw under a bus", i.e. sacrificing them to gain credibility.

It is almost always done by Mafia, and is a common suspicion when someone is suddenly lynched for what seem like minor or spurious reasons, and yet turns out to be Scum.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Bus

Now look at the second paragraph there incognito, and ask yourself when is the best time to bus and or distance yourself from a scum buddy? The best time to do that is when your scum buddy is facing a lynch. Erg0 had an "amazing epiphany" [/end sarcasm] and then bussed Tar because:
1) The tide had shifted in a lynch Tar fashion, meaning there was a signifcant amount of people that would undoubtably succeed in lynching Tar.
2) He wanted to be far from Tar (provide distance) with the bus.

Now like I just said to Mizzy. I was in no danger of being lynched on day 3. So point one above here does not exist. There was no significant tide coming toward me that would succed in my lynch. There were not further, two more, players willing to vote me over Cow. Now without the first point, you can not say the second point here even exists. And why is that? Because bussing means you want and there will be a lynch. Since there wasn't going to be a lynch the distance and therefore point 2 is also null in my opinion. So therefore Erg0 could not have believied or been following a position that would bus a scum buddy. And if he is not attacking a scum buddy, then what is he attacking? a member of the town.

Yes, PF, I know what bussing means. This is why I asked if it's implausible to believe that scum might

*attempt*

to bus one of his buddies. Obviously if the attempt doesn't result in a lynch, then it can't actually be considered bussing.

eldarad and Mizzy: Fair enough. I feel like my play in this game should be enough to demonstrate my alignment but if there was ever any doubt, I figured pointing something like that out would at least make it a bit more obvious.

[Incognito]

I'm Vanilla.

If you think I am scum, then you must believe Me, Tar and Erg0 were willing to push a wagon on Elmo practically all by ourselves on day 1 with the deadlines rules and everything. Do you believe it Incognito, yes or No? And if that's what you believe, then what all did we have to gain from such a wagon? If scum is going to do something they must have a purpose or goal in mind worth earning. What goal would we we have as apposed to sitting back and allowing another claimed vanilla(cow) to be lynched on day 1 instead?

PokerFace, the fact that I'm still voting for you should pretty much indicate whether or not I believe it. If Elmo's town, then the gain would be lynching a townie obviously. As for your second point about why choose Elmo over cow, I really don't know. Cow was fairly active throughout Day 1 while Elmo became active closer to deadline, but Elmo never really had any interactions with players or asserted his own opinions about people during "real time". That in and of itself could have been a major potential benefit.

What would Erg0 gain from lynching me "IF I was scum with him" day3 or 4? Well he would be all alone by himself. I assume he would loose his framing skill, since all games I ever played had each mafia member only able to do one action a night which would mean he couldn't frame and kill someone anymore on the same night. And Erg0 would gain possible credibility from pushing my lynch. Would that give Erg0 enough credibity to survive days 4-6 all by himself with the players he'd be against and the roles they may have?

I don't think the dynamics of the situation were as simple as you've written them out above. My main issue with Erg0's push on you and why it looked so bad to me was his timing -- the D3 deadline was on the 14th, but he chose to finally summarize his case against you and finally vote for you on the 12th when a hasdgfas wagon was already well-established and you only had one vote on you (Elmo's). It would seem very unlikely that people would suddenly make the switch to your wagon especially since eldarad had mentioned he would be voting for hasdgfas, me and Ether kept reasserting that we were cool with hasdgfas's lynch, scotmany12 wasn't moving his vote anytime soon, and you yourself had mentioned that you would be hammering him.

The rest is speculation but since this kind of discussion calls for it: if scotmany12 had chosen to investigate someone other than Erg0 during Night 3 (like for example you assuming that you're scum), Erg0 could have easily once again opened up Day 4 with a vote on you, pushed for your lynch, and looked extremely good come the next day (see? I

told

you guys hasdgfas wasn't a good lynch and that PF was scum!). Then Day 5 and beyond would have probably been a walk in the park,

especially

for a Framer who would be less likely to draw a Cop investigation in light of his push on you. And if he could both kill and frame in the same night then the game might have been in the bag for him.

---

Feelings for you aside, I have to admit that I do find it odd that eldarad hasn't really laid down a case against me or fully explained why he thinks I'm scum

or

even voted for me yet. He's just repeated the same thing over and over again: "Incog is scum. Incog is scum." as if parrot cries will suddenly make it a reality. The "case" that he keeps citing as his explanation seemed more like an attack on Erg0 coupled with a piggyback argument against me using phrases like "opportunistic vote" and "wiping hands of town blood", which are very strong misrepresentations of my actions. With 135 game-related posts, it's not like I have an absence of content to build a case on if he truly believes I'm scum.

[Incognito]

PF: I'll try to do something more elaborate like PBPAs of both you and MafiaSSK/eldarad if I can get my internet access up and running at home just to make it more likely that we close this game out today instead of going any longer. But like Elmo said, this really does feel like a forced town win anyway at this point.

[Incognito]

Hum, reading though: Incognito, in 734, you said that you'd rather not put Erg0 because "he himself might self-vote to prevent us from gaining any additional information from today". That was the day

after

hammering Tar, where in 597 you said that "It doesn't really matter when the hammer happened; we derived enough information from today to figure things out from here". Can you describe what changed between those two? When do you currently consider it germane to end the day?

Sure. On Day 2, everyone's actions and reactions surrounding the Glork/Tar bout had already been measured as best and as genuinely as they could be. For example, judging by Ether's reaction, it seemed like she genuinely believed Tar over Glork at first but then switched over to believing Glork over Tar when she realized how lurky Tarhalindur became. This seemed like a very town reaction to me, and I pretty much had Ether checked off as obvtown from that point on. Another example was Erg0's "epiphany". His epiphany looked more contrived and looked more like a way to ease his way away from Glork and onto Tar to try and appear pro-town when the tide's were shifting, which was part of the reason I questioned him about it. Therefore, he looked more like scum at that point. hasdgfas's actions around the Tar/Glork stuff looked weird to me too, but he turned out to be town. Basically, I felt like any additional reactions after Tar admitted to being scum wouldn't be very alignment-revealing, so I didn't have a problem hammering at that point. Admittedly, I guess another part of it was nerves though: I felt pretty stupid believing the wrong side between Glork and Tar and felt like I had to at least redeem myself by hammering the scum.

On Day 4 there were two separate things going on:

1) After hasdgfas flipped town when it seemed likely that scotmany12 had investigated him during Night 2, I was a bit paranoid that maybe scot wasn't who I thought he was. I hinted at that here when Mizzy questioned me about it:

Cross-posted.

Incog, your post #719 and #722 have some pretty good points against Erg0, which thus far he has failed to defend against effectively, but I don't even see so much as a minor FoS. Why is that?

Consider my vote to be on him already. I didn't want to place an immediate vote on him like I did last time with hasdgfas because I held an assumption about someone in this game that I'm not really sure holds true anymore so I'd rather wait before placing my vote.

I wanted to wait and see what else scotmany12 and Erg0 would have to say to figure out if scot really was to be trusted even though I felt pretty sure that Erg0 was scum.

2) The day was fresh, and we still had plenty of time before deadline. I also wanted to wait to see if any additional information would come out of Erg0's reactions to others, other's reactions to him, and so on.

[Incognito]

Oh and I still won't have any home access 'til next Friday

(stupid ISPs),

but I'll probably be at the library tomorrow to work on those promised PBPAs.

[Incognito]

~At the library, responding to questions~

Incog, why did you vote so early Today? What was the PF vote intended to achieve?

Um, dude. If you look back at the post/quote that I quoted when I placed my vote on PF today, you would know why I voted for PF right off the bat. I didn't think that you/MafiaSSK were scum based on a number of reasons I cited within thread, and I thought that PF was. See below:

QFT. I still don't think eldarad is scum though. His semi-attack on me is a bit strange, but I think it's more misguided than scummy at this point. I don't usually link people together before seeing alignments revealed but since

some

people seem to want to link me all over the place, I'll reveal what I'm thinking: At this point, I think we're dealing with an Erg0/PF scum team mainly due to PF's treatment of Tarhalindur during Day 1, Erg0's extremely late D3 deadline push of a PF-wagon (probable distancing but just late enough to not result in a lynch and not be considered bussing), and PF's general lurkiness. His inability to commit a vote to Glork or Tarhalindur despite mentioning his pro-Glorkscum stance and then eventual switch to a Tarhalindur-scum stance is also pretty telling.

As for what it was meant to achieve: Nothing more than the obvious. With the likelihood of there being only one scum left, I obviously wanted to see PF lynched today since I thought he was scum.

@Incognito,

How often do you see a framer in a normal game? I seem to remember Adel ranting about its rareness in MD, and yet you said you knew it was here and miller could not be?

Actually, on my old website where I played Mafia games, Framers were pretty commonplace. Lol, in fact, I was framed by one once while I was a Stalker (Tracker variant), and I ended up stalking the Framer who was framing me and saw him doing it to me haha.

So right here you say dropping the hammer was in a sence done in order to redeem yourself. Were you trying to make up to Glork the person, for your persistance/mistake or did that part of you want to make things up to everybody? Honestly Admitting something, scum tend to avoid. But why would a townie want to make up for something?

It was more to redeem myself to my own self. I dislike being wrong in general so the fact that I was so off in my stance on Tar/Glork after convincing myself using logic that a Lepton's Gambit simply wouldn't be pulled in this type of game really bothered me.

Get the picture yet? Thats why I want elderad to hammer me. I'm a super saint! Well my theme name is

Obnoxious Drunk

.

I was actually going to question you about what you seemed to be hinting at when I was gonna do my PBPA of you and eldarad today. I figured you might be trying to hint to something when you mentioned that eldarad should hammer and when you questioned Mizzy about her role's details. Did you breadcrumb at this role at some earlier point within the game? If you're really a supersaint and you don't receive the number of votes required for a full majority's lynch today, does the person who placed the last vote on you still die along with you?

The way I see it is if PF is scum fake-claiming SS and eldarad refuses to hammer, then PF might choose to not self-hammer to try and draw a pardon from Mizzy to live another day as she's left wondering whether or not he's telling the truth or if he's lying about his role. And with eldarad insisting that I'm scum, I could see him refusing to hammer which makes this a pretty good scum fake-claim at this point. Bleh. If PF is town and telling the truth, then eldarad has to be scum, and he'll still use his "insistence" that I'm scum as reason to not want to hammer PF. The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

Oooor if we do decide to go through with PF's lynch, PF, will you definitely be around at deadline? If so, then if you're town and eldarad is scum refusing to hammer, then I'd say self-hammering, like you suggested above, would be the way to go since that would at least prevent the last person to vote for you from dying. If you don't self-hammer, then Mizzy should not pardon you, and she should allow your lynch to go through. We just need your confirmation that you'll be around at deadline, or we could probably do this well before deadline if someone else votes for PF right now so that no uncertainty about the plan of action exists.

[Incognito]

If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

If we agree to this plan of action, and I'm not chosen to be today's lynch, then yeah, I will hammer PF tomorrow if I'm still around.

[Incognito]

I still think you're being thick, eldarad, but meh.

[Incognito]

(I bought myself a damn 7 dollar sandwich from f-ing Panera Bread just so I can sit down and get some wireless access for this game.

That's

dedication. )

Um, wow... There's like a few things that really don't make sense here. PF, you've repeatedly insisted that eldarad is the final scum and that I am town, you voted for him and pursued a case against him, and now you claim that you pulled this SS gambit to try and weed out the final scum but after claiming that both mine and eldarad's reactions seemed town, you've backed off and given up? You even claim that you realized that if we didn't lynch the scum today, the scum would have to basically NK you tonight and attempt to go up against Elmo and Mizzy tomorrow in order to stand a chance. If you're really town, then isn't that what you would have wanted from this gambit in the first place? I mean, both me and eldarad were content with dying today - if you truly believed that either me or eldarad (namely eldarad since you've

repeatedly insisted

that he's scum) was the final scum, then you would have been happy to continue on with this gambit realizing that if eldarad (your top scum choice) got lynched today, we would be dealing with a town win anyway and not even have to get to tomorrow, no?

On the flip side, eldarad, if you really had a scum read on me and a town read of PF therefore making you believe his SS claim, then shouldn't you of all people have realized that a hypothetical Incog-scum's best move would have been to NK PokerFace in order to avoid an auto-lose situation? I thought PF was scum fake-claiming SS, so I figured he would definitely be around tomorrow if we went through with the plan but if you're town and you believed he was a supersaint, then shouldn't you have expected him to die tonight if I didn't get lynched today?

[Incognito]

In response to your question, I called him thick because I still thought he was misguided town for still believing that I was scum even after he

agreed

with my plan of action, and his partial case(s) against me really don't/doesn't make much sense to me. I mean, I guess I could see the point he might have been getting at about me being off the Elmo and hasdgfas wagon during Day 1 and why he might think that might make me scummy but in order for him to truly believe that it made me scummy, he'd have to believe that Glork's actions during Day 1 weren't questionable enough to warrant a vote or that my reasons for voting for Glork were weak or something. Considering the fact that I still pursued a Glork-lynch during Day 2 and eldarad himself pushed for a Glork-lynch upon entering the game during Day 2, then obviously he couldn't possibly believe that my Glork vote during Day 1 was unwarranted and therefore he shouldn't be thinking that I was using it to simply hide off-wagon - the vote would truly be justified from his view.

Oh and you asked about my PBPAs earlier: I never bothered to write them because after you claimed SS, that kinda changed things from my perspective.

And yeah, Panera Bread is expensive as hell. If I can tap into one of the neighbor's wireless thingies later, I should be able to respond to anything new today. Otherwise, it'll have to wait until tomorrow when I'm at work unfortunately.

[Incognito]

Post #882 has the gaurantee plan which is a town reaction, but it also has you actually making some push comments towards elderad when I thought you thought he was town. You say you can see a scum him refusing to make a hammer and what not and you leave the option of me self hammering around. Scum would begin to push on him then to get him lynched today or tomorrow while leaving the option for me to self hammer and be gone today. At least thats what I think with how much it looked like you believed me. You refered to Elderad in a manor that made me think you were considering him as scum and so that kinda looked like you were flip floping unless you honestly thought post 881 made him scum. Did you honestly think that? and why did you leave the comment about me self hammering still and not running out the possibilities of the gaurantee plan?

Eh? The first scenario I mentioned in Post 882 was that you were scum fake-claiming SS. I still believed that and still

do

believe that. I presented the other scenario about the possibility that maybe you were telling the truth and that eldarad was scum simply for the sake of completion to show what a hypothetical eldarad-scum's reasoning would be that he would use to maneuver himself away from wanting to hammer you today. I'd hardly call that a flip-flop. I still thought and still do think he's town. Previously misguided, yes, but still town while you're mafia.

I left the comment about you self-hammering because like I said, I still thought you were mafia who might suggest that eldarad's refusal to hammer was scummy. Let's suppose Mizzy placed the second vote on you - she might have pardoned you out of fear that you might truly be a supersaint and that eldarad really was scum refusing to hammer. The only person who had been fairly certain that you are the final mafiate has been me. Both Mizzy and Elmo seem torn between you and eldarad, and eldarad was insisting that I was scum. You hammering yourself would at least allow Mizzy to not have to worry about dying due to an SS fear and decide more calmly to pardon you or not.

Anyway, I feel like I owe this game a song in the spirit of Ether (R.I.P.). Sing this to the chorus of "Genie in a Bottle".

♫ If we wanna be happy
Then let's hammer PF-scum
I just wanna watch some dancing girls
In peace the right way! ♫

[Incognito]

Mizzy, if he's a supersaint and

anyone

who is town hammers, that's an auto-loss. This isn't even just about your power role anymore; this is about the game in general.

[Incognito]

Technically with the deadline lynch rules in this game, no unvoting or revoting really needs to occur. eldarad's current vote is sorta like a pseudo-hammer already.

I'm guessing Elmo will be rounding out parts 2 through 4 of his four-part series within the next six hours?

[Incognito]

Oh nvm he unvoted.

[Incognito]

My 'net is still down. I'm outside my house robbing internet from the neighbors probably about to be gunned down by a shotgun or something, so I'll most likely be doing it Panera Bread style this weekend unfortunately.

Interesting proposition. When I saw your name as a reply to this thread, I figured I'd come in with your vote on me already with either Elmo readying the hammer if he did happen to be the last scum or Elmo checking in and not hammering thereby leading me to believe that you are indeed the last scum. What gave you the change of heart about me from pre-PF yesterday into today, eldarad?

[Incognito]

~While I'm waiting for an answer to that question~

Town reads on both of you yesterday. PF wasn't scum so clearly that wasn't right. Deep analysis time.

eldarad/MafiaSSK PBPA

(includes all posts made by both, along with interesting posts related to both)

Post 6: MafiaSSK is happy for the chance to play with me again. Last time we played together, we were Mason buddies in Mini 539. Also includes a forewarning about his playstyle. I don't think many people knew the reference to this. I'm pretty sure MafiaSSK was doing this in reference to Ythill in Mini 539 who didn't believe in random voting and felt like early game was time better spent on bringing up meta-bad habits.

Post 34: Erg0-scum places what he eventually cites as a non-random vote on MafiaSSK for "making excuses already".

Post 41: MafiaSSK mentions that he doesn't understand what random voting is meant to accomplish. This was a minor inconsistency that I questioned him about in my next post since I realized that SSK did happen to random vote in 539. Erg0 responds to him in the next post and then SSK places an arbitrary vote on Erg0. Not really a tell but if Erg0 and SSK were scum together, this would mean that they chose to random vote for one another.

Post 61: Erg0 chimes in that his vote wasn't particularly random and then answers on behalf of SSK that his vote didn't seem random either. This seems like a weird post to me for some reason.

Post 68: Again Erg0 answers on behalf of MafiaSSK to mention that his vote couldn't have been based on solid evidence of scumminess. Yeah, possibly, but why has Erg0 decided to answer on behalf of MafiaSSK for a second time already?

Post 78: MafiaSSK asks a decent, scum-hunting question to Tarhalindur. So far, MafiaSSK's posts have been directed at me, Erg0, and Tarhalindur. Both Erg0 and Tarhalindur were scum, and I of course knew him from 539. Not sure if this necessarily means anything.

Post 148: MafiaSSK re-enters the thread after being prodded about once or twice and gives an update on his feelings. He mentions that he's receiving pro-town vibes from Erg0, Mizzy, Glork, and Patrick but is curious about me in particular along with everyone else. He doesn't really explain why this is so initially. This was a point that PF brought up a few times with respect to why he thought eldarad might be scum. MafiaSSK found Erg0 to be pro-town but hadn't removed his vote from him. Not sure if this is actually scummy or just inattentive.

Post 154: SSK explains what he meant by him being curious about me after I questioned him about it. He explains that "I'm playing differently from 539", which even

I

will admit was a fair point as I hadn't really gotten a grasp of the game yet or determined who I thought was very likely to be scum up until that point. I still felt kinda flat-footed. In 155, his very next post, he mentions that he "re-read the thread and got those vibes from the protown people". I brought that post up later on during Day 2 as a possible slip from him but since Erg0 ended up being scum here, that clearly couldn't have been a slip after all.

Post 170: SSK just says hi to Elmo. Nice gesture lol. =)

Post 181: hasdgfas switches his vote from PF to MafiaSSK mainly for doing pro-town lists that don't cite specific reasons for why he finds them pro-town.

Post 184: Erg0 creates a link in this post citing that hasdgfas and MafiaSSK could be scum-buddies based on the timing of has's vote on SSK. hasdgfas was town though. Was Erg0 attempting to link a scum buddy with town? At the end of this post, he votes hasdgfas. Clearly Erg0 knew that if hasdgfas was lynched, he would flip town and this "connection" would be non-existent. Scum sometimes attempt to do this kind of stuff as an attempt to "clear" their scum buddies as town.

Post 186: MafiaSSK responds to a few questions I asked him mentioning that his pro-town reads are based on vibes and that he agrees with Patrick's comment about me seeming passive in early game. In his next post, he cites that school is taking up a lot of his time and that's why he can't reread. Eh? But wasn't this playstyle linked to a town lurker playstyle that he said he was trying in this game?

Post 197: SSK asks a decent question to Ether about why it's scummy for Mizzy to be emphasizing meta-gaming.

Post 199: PF actually raises some interesting points at the bottom of this post while questioning Erg0. There definitely was an inconsistency there as Erg0 seems to imply suspicion of both SSK and hasdgfas but then mentions that he opposes wagons on people like SSK while voting hasdgfas.

Post 200: SSK explains why he asked Ether his earlier question.

Post 223: SSK mentions that he's just having a hard time picking out someone scummy in this game because of its complexity. From my experience, I can think back to two separate games where Newbie-ish players simply could not form opinions about who might be scum in those games and in both instances, both of those players ended up being town. Patrick was in both of those games with me, and I think he referenced this in one of his posts also.

Post 248: SSK responds to PF's meta stuff by actually citing a game where he's been scum and telling him to look through that. He also cites another game where he was town but acted more scummy in that game also. He then concludes by mentioning he can't figure out what it was exactly that made the people he listed as town seem town.

Post 272: SSK responds to a question from Ether about learning how to read SSK by mentioning that even he himself can't figure out how to read himself. I don't understand his FoS at the end of this post.

Shit... I feel my attention span falling slowly as I read this and type so I'll continue later with more SSK/eldarad and then rolandgarros/Elmo. Got plenty of time even with deadline anyway.

[Incognito]

In between PBPA material...

I'd note that I've been saying Incognito looks town to me, and it'd be much easier for ScumEldarad to try and get him to vote me than vice versa; I don't see any other basis for that change in your position. Or is that another

epiphany

?

I'm not sure I follow this frame of thought. Why do you believe that it'd be much easier for a scum eldarad to try and get me to vote for you as opposed to you voting for me? I mean, yes, you did mention during Day 5 that in your mind, you're basically trying to convince yourself that I'm town so that even if we lynched wrong yesterday, we'd still be in good shape during Day 6 but do you not see a scum more likely saying something like "I told ya so" in this situation? Another question: Is your town read of me in any way based on meta-gaming? Also, what did you think of the Erg0 slip that I mentioned during Day 2 and re-pointed out yesterday?

Continuing with the long stuff tomorrow.

[Incognito]

Okay so nothing has happened since my last post.

My Status

: I still don't have internet access at home. Verizon DSL promises that my internet should be up and running tomorrow but they've been saying that day after day after day. The limited amount of time that I had at work I ended up using on WOMAFIA since I'm

way

behind on that, which leaves me behind on all my games including this one. I'm really sorry. Please bear with me.

[Incognito]

Proof that I'm town: I'm not hammering.

Elmo, I'd like for you to write up a case against eldarad explaining why he's scum.

My current gut-level feeling is that eldarad is town and that Elmo is scum, and I'll get into why later today. I feel like the post by post stuff is almost like a wasted exercise so I'll be pointing out certain areas of the game that I find to be the most alignment-telling instead of continuing with it.

[Incognito]

Okay, so first of all, we have the wagon that formed on Elmo during Day 1. The biggest problem that I can see with this wagon and why it may lead someone to believe that Elmo is likely town is the fact that 2 of the 4 people who were on the wagon are now known scum. My issue though is Elmo's follow-up post on Day 2 which addresses the wagon that was on him. Despite the fact that he did end up voting for Tarhalindur, I never got the feeling that he really

tried

to push for the reasoning behind other votes (namely PokerFace and in particular Erg0). Elmo specifically mentions at the bottom of that post that he would like for further explanation from everyone on his wagon but despite the fact that Erg0, Tar, and PF never provided that explanation, Elmo doesn't follow up with further interrogation for the remainder of Day 2:

I am suppressing the desire to make a big post. I think that's for the best. I would like all three people on my wagon yesterday to summarise why, and to state if they still want me lynched, and why.

I suppose his defense could be something along the lines of "well, with the Glork/Tar stuff going on, I didn't feel the need to comment", but I just get the feeling that an Elmo-town would have pushed the issue a bit more irregardless.

Other issues:

Vote

:

Tarhalindur

. Incognito: Metagame me, hey? Not sure I can be more specific than that. Gonna eat something, I'll read through again and post later; was expecting more from Glork, but I definitely come down on this side.

Elmo, this was a request you made for me in response to the following:

[*] I get an overall spectator-y type of vibe from Elmo that makes me uncomfortable. Glork, what is it about Elmo's play so far that you find to be pro-town?[/list]

Are you claiming that "being spectator-y" is something that is more likely to be found in your pro-town meta? Is this something that players have a tendency to call you out for when you're town? The only game that I've read of yours was Open 54 in which you were town and while reading that game, I never got the impression that you were spectator-y at all. Do you have a game in mind for me to read through?

Elmo, why did you wait so close until deadline during Day 5 to finally provide some kind of analysis? Why did you never bother to hammer PokerFace when you were clearly reading the thread right around the deadline?

~More later~

[Incognito]

Probably the biggest thing that I can see that leads me to believe eldarad is town has to be his reaction to my plan of action. Looking at the time stamps, I made my plan-of-action post on August 16th, at 1:21 P.M. and within minutes, eldarad immediately agreed with the plan and even went further to outline the plan's full potential:

The alternative to lynching PF for you guys I guess could be deciding which of the two (me or eldarad) is more likely to be scum and lynching one of us today. If we lynch wrong, then the situation can be evaluated tomorrow and a decision could be made about whether to believe PF or to believe the person who was not lynched today.

I agree with this if people are fairly happy with PokerFace's claim.

From my POV, if PokerFace is town then if I hammer the town loses since we lose 3 townies - 2 from the lynch plus a NK - which leaves 1 scum vs 1 townie at dawn.

My next step - depending on how Elmo and Mizzy reacted - was likely going to be:
"I'm not hammering PokerFace. If you think that makes me scum, lynch me instead"

If we lynch Incog Today and I'm still alive Tomorrow I'll hammer PF. I promise.
If Incog is willing to commit to the same then I'll be happy regardless of whether Incog or I get lynched Today.

and then again:

In fact, unless Mizzy or Elmo are scum, that guarantees a town win.

1) Lynch me Today, Tomorrow Incog hammers PokerFace;
2) Lynch Incog Today, Tomorrow I hammer PokerFace.

If one of us refuses to hammer PokerFace, just lynch us instead.

If PokerFace is lying scum then we will hammer him Tomorrow and win.
If PokerFace is telling the truth and one of {eldarad, Incog} are scum, then the scum will be killed either by lynching Today or by hammering PokerFace Tomorrow (or, more likely, refusing to hammer the Supersaint - so then everyone votes for the person refusing to hammer)

Have I missed something here?

eldarad, when you reacted to my plan, how likely (in terms of percentages or something) did you think it was that I would be chosen as the Day 5 lynch as opposed to you?

[Incognito]

BLAH.

This is my first end-game scenario EVER where I am the one making the decision between two players. Welcome to the wonderful world of WIFOM.

The fact of the matter is this is what I've got so far:

Logic

Elmo is town. Why would two scum bus their own buddy?

Gut

OMG ELDARAD'S REACTION JUST SEEMS TOWN ALONG WITH HIS OTHER PLAY HERE SO ELMO IS SCUM. DIESCUMDIE!

Conclusion

The fact of the matter is I agree with Patrick during Day 1. I can't quite articulate what it is that feels off here about Elmo. I had the same issue with Ether in Newbie 530 -- she hadn't done anything overtly scummy but SOMETHING felt off about her -- and then I went along with it, more was revealed, and yeah, she ended up being the

Mafia Roleblocker

.

All I know is that I've been reading game after game from the both of you and something about Elmo's play here -- SOMETHING -- is very different from his play in his town games when compared to here and this even goes so far as to accommodate for the games that he linked to that

aren't

part of that Circa Open 54 bunch. In short: This doesn't feel like Elmo in Dynamite Stick Mafia or those other town games that he linked to.

eldarad, on the other hand, feels natural. I've read through his scum games, and I've read through the town ones and this feels like eldarad-town. Hands down.

So I'm going with this:

Vote: Elmo

If I'm wrong, I'm sorry. I really hope I'm right though.

[Incognito]

<3

Not a lot left to say. gg

= YES?

[Incognito]

Well then I agree with half of eldarad's proposal -- the lynching Elmo part. As for the other half, I think PokerFace's gambit was actually QUITE good as it was ONE of the major differences between a town win and a scum one.

[Incognito]

eldarad, on the other hand, feels natural. I've read through his scum games, and I've read through the town ones and this feels like eldarad-town. Hands down.

Damn. I didn't think I was so easy to read

To be fair, you were actually quite tricky to read. Like I said, I literally read game after game trying to make sure I was making the correct decision. What made it easier was the fact that you were a combined read; I was referring to both MafiaSSK's completed games as well as your own. Certain things that MafiaSSK said in this game just seemed obvtown-ish too; I think I pointed out a couple. Your attack on me made more sense coming from a town eldarad rather than a scum eldarad as well.

Then the town decided I was confirmed innocent for no particular reason, and I sat on my ass doing nothing, which bored me to tears.

Meh, I don't think it was quite so easy as that. I was onto you for a good portion of Day 1 and even Day 2 when Glork and others were considering you town. I repeatedly kept questioning Glork about his town read of you because you just didn't seem very town to me at all.

[Incognito]

OGML: Thanks for the modding and the great flavor. =P I can't believe I ended up in a psychiatric hospital. x_x

Who was Patrick's wife? =O

[Incognito]

So, um, now that we won, we should totally watch some dancing girls.

[Incognito]

I was about to go nominate PF for a title for his necrophiliac comments, but

Patrick

thinks his supersaint gambit has better potential.

Superfeint? Dunno.

Yeah, I kinda, sorta think this title is probably better than "Too Useful", but I guess it's up to PF. =)

I inv tar night one (guilty),

ether night two (innocent)

, and ergo night three (guilty). On night two it was really between four people; ether, elderad, ergo, and mizzy (I was uncertain with all of them). Since I was not sure if I was going to get an inv that night I merely chose a name out of the hat. My night 4 inv, ftr, was elderad.

Hahaha... I find this hilarious. It was your quick vote of hasdgfas during Day 3 which led me to believe you had a guilty result on him. After he flipped town, I figured that you were still the cop but that a Framer was probably in the set-up who framed hasdgfas during that night. So essentially, I was right about a Framer but for a reason that couldn't have possibly been right. lol.

Incog's role PMs for the mafia included the link to the quicktopic thread:
http://www.quicktopic.com/41/H/dpQDwehgLi3

Blasphemy. I wrote no such role PMs. =P

That makes sence investigation wise on not checking cow. I just kinda wish everybody thought like you with respect to me. So I was a little surprised you, Pat, and Eld (originally) thought I was town while Mizzy and incog, Glork and Ether (Kinda) thought differently. Oh well. GG

Sorry, PF. I probably should have revisited your posts from Day 1 and beyond before placing that quick vote on you. But like they always say: everything happens for a reason, I suppose. Any other turn of events might not have led to that awesome SS-fakeclaim gambit and might have had the potential to cost us the game.

I really, really enjoyed this game a lot. =)