Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over


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Post Post #325 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Fink »

Quick and dirty that turned out to not be that quick but is probably pretty dirty
Spoiler: math
Assume we No Lynch:
Vig shoots randomly in
7 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
2 Mimes

Vig has a 2/12 = 1/6 chance to hit a Mime = 17%
Mafia shoots randomly in
7 VTs
2 PRs
2 Mimes

2/11 = 18%

Chance of one or the other hitting Mime
2/11 + 1/6 - (2/11*1/6)
Roughly
18 + 17 - 3 = ~32%

Assuming we lynch VT (54%)
Vig Shoots
6 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
2 Mimes
2/11 = 18%

Mafia shoots
6 VTs
2 PRs
2 Mimes

2/10 = 20%
20 + 18 - 4 = ~34%

Assuming we lynch Mafia (15%)
Vig shoots
7 VT
1 Watcher
1 Mafia
2 Mimes
2/11
Mafia shoots
7 VT
2 PR
2 Mimes
2/11

18 + 18 - 3 = 33%

Assuming we lynch Mime (15%)
Vig Shoots
7 VTs
1 Watcher
2 Mafia
1 Mime
1/11 = 9%

Mafia shoots
1/10 = 10%
10 + 9 - 1 = ~18%

And like 16% we make a PR claim and do one of the other things, so really it’s very roughly
Lynch VT 62%
Lynch Mime 19%
Linch Mafia 19%

Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching Mime 19% * 18% = 3%
Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching Mafia 19% * 33% = 6%
Chance of Shooting Mime and Lynching VT 62% * 34% = 21%

~30% overall with random lynch vs. ~32% with the No Lynch

Given that scum will be PR hunting and Mimes will be PR/scumhunting for their RB, we should definitely lynch. (Plus the fact that lynches generate more interactions than no lynches.)
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Post Post #326 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:22 am

Post by Fink »

And for the record, that's the first setup spec I believe I've done.
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Post Post #327 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:40 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote Count

Sesq - 5 - RockyHorror, lane0168, innocentvillager, GuiltyLion, FA_Q2
Nero Cain - 3 - Fink, Thor665, Almost50
Almost50 - 1 - Eragon
GuiltyLion- 1 - Sesq
Eragon - 1 - Nero Cain

Not Voting - UnrealSeal, Aristophanes

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

UnrealSeal will be replaced unless he returns before a replacement is found.

Lane0168 is being prodded.

Deadline is suspended. A new deadline will be announced when the replacement that is currently needed is found.
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Post Post #328 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 3:59 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

I should mention...

V/LA Friday through Monday


Yay Toronto Meet!

I'll see what I can do for a catch up tho.

V/LA noted
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Post Post #329 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by lane0168 »

I PROMISE I will say something that I think is useful tomorrow. Or at least say smelling that I hope will be useful.

Pedit. Hi Ari. Long time no see
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Post Post #330 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Aristophanes »

Howdy Lane!
How've you been??
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Post Post #331 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 4:14 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

In post 329, lane0168 wrote:I PROMISE I will say something that I think is useful tomorrow. Or at least say smelling that I hope will be useful.

Pedit. Hi Ari. Long time no see
Does it really take you that long t think of something?
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #332 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 5:39 pm

Post by Sesq »

In post 300, Nero Cain wrote:I agree that Sesq is p scummy but I'm also a little worried that she's a mine. Like the whole "it takes a wagon on me to get me going" just seemed so telegraphed. Would a mine say that to get wagoned or would mafia say that to appear like a mime?
because it accurately represents my playstyle, flaws and all


In post 304, Eragon wrote:Sesq-
its hard understanding a lot of the context of this post, I don’t really get the comments on Wagons in RvS, it just sounds like a way to get stuff thats seemingly “content” out there that means nothing. Says “I’m not good town” Says DT is just shitposting, yes, I see it, and I agree, but the way they are saying it is kinda defensive. Calls themselves stupid. Calls DT not scum again, twice in the same post. And then says their vote on Lane is real, after only being their second post.
IF you dont mind me asking, what about Lane’s amazing 3 posts(1 RvS) made you think hes scum?
another self-deprecating post.
30-something post gap, comes in with “Really”
another 30-something post gap after “really”, and its just a fluff with artistic value. They call someone mime? Im not sure if its A50 or IV, but they then say “Idk why my votes still on lane, but I dont see any other scum” after calling someone mime…
again calls Almost a mime and scum, even though they said they dont see any other scum.
another self-deprecating post, then going on to say DT isn’t one and almost could be mime again. This is the third post in a row saying Almost!Mime, showing they truly think he is mime, but in 166 they said they dont see any other scum. They also asked for a wagon on them to kick them into gear???
calls their wagon “Epic” and says that even though they promised content with a wagon, just kinda lazy and ehhh…
calls Thor town because “reasoning makes sense, flows naturally, and contributes” The only thing here somewhat town-telling is the naturality. This seems almost like trying to pocket Thor.
Shades Fa_Q’s post(Sorry if I mistyped your name)
Suddenly calls GuiltyLion scum for fluff posting and “OH I didnt see it earlier this is like obvious scum” which, in context of this game is BS, because plenty of people have low-posted, fluff-posted, and yet you focus solely on GL without bringing anything else up. Also, if GL is scum for Fluffposting, where do you stand?
is openly admitting your not putting in effort good? I think thats just a reason to “Excuse” your frozen-ness as a wolf, then after shading FA_Q for kinda making them look like scum, says “That’s not necessarily a town move or a scum move” also, then says that their reasoning is exactly what GL said, even though GL disproved the case…
defends DT again
i dont really understand first part of the post, then uses self-defense with “I cant be mime because im too honest” and says they dont want to vote DT because “I dont want to throw town under the bus to live” but I see three problems with this.
You cant be 100% positive they are town unless you are scum, so you would rather kill them than die yourself.
They are the Counterwagon so voting them decreases your chance of being lynched.
It seems like you want to get lynched here
says their case on GL is “fluffposting and then some” whats and then-some??? I havent seen you say anything except fluff posting.

conclusion:
I think Sesq is scum, but more likely a mime.
who else is fluffposting?

also @ 267 response: that's a really good point about probability that i didnt notice before

VOTE: Nero Cain

sorry... you're probably town.....
In post 322, Fink wrote:Sesq:
In post 286, Fink wrote: Also, what did you mean by this?
In post 240, Sesq wrote:please vote for guiltylion too, as i think it would help us all to see the results of that.
dont remember. i tend to go through my posts a lot and re-edit them as im writing so it might be some weird grammatical remnant. honestly have no idea
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Post Post #333 (ISO) » Thu Aug 30, 2018 7:57 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

OH NOES, I'M BEING GOADED INTO VOTING SESQ!.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #334 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:50 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 277, innocentvillager wrote:can you state your scumreads based on that reasoning? sounds like you're ruling out quite some teams with that
I don't rule out teams Day 1.
If I had scumreads I felt were remotely worth sharing I'd do so, I'm content with the three I've already offered. And considering I'm only offering two (and both of them pretty soft) town reads I really see little value in discussing who I'd be willing to lynch.
In post 278, innocentvillager wrote:okay he addressed this self-case thing I think but whats your read on sesq, given the bolded that you said?
Sesq is basically a scum read with a slight "hurm" based on him deciding to panic push GL.
Generally I'm thinking he's a Mime right now. It explains a lot.
In post 287, Almost50 wrote:The downside is if Mafia decide to hunt for TPRs instead, but that can be dealt with by assigning the kills, and if Mafia do not shoot the proposed target then I'd be alright siding by the Mimes over them (it's like "I came to you first and you refused to cooperate, so it was your choice").
I rarely support no lynches - but let's at least be honest with ourselves that this is a laughable threat to try to leash Mafia with.
If you're endorsing a no lynch you have to recognize Mafia are going to shoot for a PR just as likely as they are to shoot for a Mime because both matter to them roughly equally at this stage. You also assuredly don't have my support in the idea of game throwing for the Mimes if Mafia on Night 1 shoots somewhere random.
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Post Post #335 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:58 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Oh lol so I just read the setup. Mimes are an Antitown Roleblocking Jester faction?? That's madness!
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Post Post #336 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:00 am

Post by Aristophanes »

Also holy shit, i love this playerlist! =D
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Post Post #337 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 5:42 am

Post by Aristophanes »

In post 35, Fink wrote:VOTE: Doubting Thomas
Page 1 Mime claim more likely to come from Mafia than Mime I think.

Also, hi Thor. Any particular reason for sesq over the others?
In post 36, Almost50 wrote:We can -of course- lynch DT, and if he flips Mime we shoot both Fink and Eragon (Mafia will agree to shoot there as they also don't want the Mimes winning).

So,
if DR flips Mime, Town Vig shoots Fink and Mafia shoot Eragon.
Umm...Vig shoots a Mime claim. Always.

Lynching a Mime claim is idiotic XD
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Post Post #338 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

yeah it's feeling more and more like Sesq is more likely a mime with scum!FA_Q2 voting it

honestly I'm still fine with lynching the slot, if it's a Mime flip that's not the end of the world
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Post Post #339 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:28 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 281, Fink wrote:but those first silly posts seem like a bit of a "please lynch me" Jester thing, and I think that's more likely to come from Mafia than Town or Mime.
I just don't think those posts were all that "please lynch me", like it's literally just RVS song lyric posting. this feels like a reach and you haven't done anything beyond this vote
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Post Post #340 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:14 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 334, Thor665 wrote:You also assuredly don't have my support in the idea of game throwing for the Mimes if Mafia on Night 1 shoots somewhere random.
I wasn't gonna "game throw". All I was going to do is hunt for Mafia before I hunt for the Mimes. Right now I was more concerned about
not lynching a Mime
. By choosing to "side by Mimes" I would lynch anyone scummy, and you know what that means? It means I'd be forcing the Mafia to shoot for Mimes in subsequent nights lest we get them lynched.

In my mind, lynching a Mime on D1 makes the game virtually unwinnable for Mafia because they'd have as much pressure to shoot the other Mime as they would regarding the two PRs. It also makes the game harder for Town because we also don't want the other Mime lynched. So, I'm being nice to the side "we know how to deal with" and offering a "temporary truce" until we get rid of "our mutual enemy" before we turn on each other as usual. Them breaching the truce doesn't actually work in their favour at all is all I'm saying, and was hoping they'd realize that themselves.

Anyway, let's see what happens and then talk about it on D2.

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Post Post #341 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:43 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 154, Almost50 wrote:
In post 151, RockyHorror wrote:A50's push on the obviously fake vig claim is so bad it almost has to come from a mime.
OMG! I'm soooooo busted. I dare you (or your partner) can shoot me tonight to confirm it. :P
This, among other posts, feels like acting.
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Post Post #342 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:47 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 161, Thor665 wrote:
In post 135, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 133, Thor665 wrote:
In post 131, Kmd4390 wrote:
innocentvillager replaces ldkldldldkdkdkdklllkkk
Straight upgrade.
you're going to be disappointed im super rusty and terrible at this game
Straight downgrade :(
In post 134, lane0168 wrote:This is where I thought you were confused about what it was... I thought you were applying it to you and I?
Why did you think that?
There's literally nothing either you or I said to draw that conclusion from.
I asked you about that earlier and you never responded.
In post 134, lane0168 wrote:When you said you already explained it, I thought I'd find it in the posts where you talked about burden of proficiency. I didn't know you were referencing our conversation.
It was exactly in that post - I quoted it for you in our last exchange.
In post 134, lane0168 wrote:But my vote isn't about that. It was your early game. Which I haven't addressed yet. I understand it looks as though i had attempted to "find the words" so I can't fault you for thinking that. But I haven't.
Okay.
Guess it won't matter now that you're leaping onto Sesq.
But then I don't think you're likely to convince me you're scumhunting anytime soon either, so... :lol:
In post 145, Almost50 wrote:So, we play to "read".. yet when there's nothing to read it is scummy to say so? We play to "find scum", what when nobody's been posting anything of substance and/or AI it is still my job to find scum based on "void"??

I'll be damned if this doesn't flip scum. My vote is stuck here until this slot is dead "one way or the other".
Almost, could we please not go down this rage tunnel thing again - haven't you moved past this habit yet? You and I both know there are sloppy and skillful town who are going to act that way and I rarely see the rage wagon trigger particularly useful feedback - I know it's happy to go down that pah and I still do it too much myself, but I actually like his alignment's odds to be town for calling out one of the more active and generically town read slots at this juncture, yeah?
Idk... It was just the way I interpreted it. I can't explain why that's where I applied your burden of proficiency. It doesn't make sense to me either.
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Post Post #343 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:52 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 169, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 151, RockyHorror wrote:A50's push on the obviously fake vig claim is so bad it almost has to come from a mime.
oh i should've iso'd you first. but like this to me seems as plausible from goon as mime, like lion said there's too much interchangeable wifom.
Is it so bad is has to come from mime? Or so bad it has to come from scum trying to be like mime? That's where the wifom comes in and you just lynch who you think is not town.
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Post Post #344 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:56 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 338, GuiltyLion wrote:yeah it's feeling more and more like Sesq is more likely a mime with scum!FA_Q2 voting it

honestly I'm still fine with lynching the slot, if it's a Mime flip that's not the end of the world
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

@A50 - Sure.

@Lane - I'm amazed that there is difficulty getting a wagon on you.
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Post Post #345 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:22 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 344, Thor665 wrote:
In post 338, GuiltyLion wrote:yeah it's feeling more and more like Sesq is more likely a mime with scum!FA_Q2 voting it

honestly I'm still fine with lynching the slot, if it's a Mime flip that's not the end of the world
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

@A50 - Sure.

@Lane - I'm amazed that there is difficulty getting a wagon on you.
Not everyone likes being wrong, now back to me reading.

PS a50/thor
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Post Post #346 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:23 am

Post by Nero Cain »

I rather not lynch a mine today but if it comes down to me vs. her then I
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #347 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:24 am

Post by lane0168 »

@mod, approximately how long will deadline be after a replacement is found


Was thinking approximately 48-72 hours but it depends on some things with my own RL schedule
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Post Post #348 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:36 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 262, Eragon wrote:@thor your asking what my vote does?

Shows who I think is scum
I get the impression that eragon had this long elaborate response typed up, then got concerned about how it would look, deleted it, and came up with this.
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Post Post #349 (ISO) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:01 am

Post by lane0168 »

In post 330, Aristophanes wrote:Howdy Lane!
How've you been??
Really good

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