Mini Normal 2021: Game Over

[Krazy]

Hi!

Did I miss anything that actually matters other than the mason claims? I'll try to read some of this tonight but probably won't have a vote until tomorrow night.

[Krazy]

Hey Tchill, are you a big game of thrones fan? What did you think of the last season?

Also, mini normals have 3 scum in a 12 player setup right? I haven't played on this site in a while and don't remember the meta of these setups, but I remember it tended to be light on power roles. Are we assuming that if there's 2 masons that there's nothing else on the town's side and Lalendra is definitely dead tonight? So basically if we mess up today we are at mylo thereafter?

Just trying to get back in the swing of things. I've been playing on a site that goes a lot heavier on power roles so trying to remember the general patterns of this site.

[Krazy]

I was leaning the worst/boris but I'm not caught enough to commit to a vote yet.

[Krazy]

What happened to osuka? "I'm back!" ... never posts again

Impossible to read a slot with no posts.

Working my way through, Mumble looks bad. I really don't like the worst's fake dayvig but I have mixed feelings on whether its scum. Need to reread Yuu tomorrow. Think I have like 15 more pages or something.

Not really on board with the Tchill/Oath thing so far. Neither is in my top 2 for scumreads.

Tchill's avatar makes me want to put Light of the Seven on loop. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS-gbqbVd8c

That last season was so all over the place... I can't say I dislike it turning into a more typical fantasy adventure show but it definitely doesn't have the edge of the first three seasons.

On a side note, I left the site before because I started to feel like mafia as a game just isn't a 'healthy' game... it is hard to really feel like you're making friends when so much of the interaction is tinged with hostility or uncertainty, so I'm just going to keep talking about fluff while we're playing if you don't mind.

Probably not making it through 15 more pages tonight, and I need to reread Yuu in iso before I vote anyway.

[Krazy]

Sure, I *could* take this reason and hang my hat on it b/c

it

DOES

reinforce my belief that you are scum

but I mean, come on....you're so panicked after two votes on you that you feel the need to react and discredit.

ppl get REALLY offended when you call them scum

-regardless of alignment. Its a maturity thing and depends on the playerlist I guess.

?????

[Krazy]

You called him scum and then in literally your next post insisted it's rude to call people scum. Just seemed weird man.

[Krazy]

Ok, still re-reading stuff, but I wanted to address this tchill/oath thing, since my reaction to that has to deal more with general principle than specific evidence.

1. I feel like the only useful information to be gained from their interaction is that between the two, one is definitely town.
2. I feel like the likelihood it is two town tunneling on each other is 8-10% more likely that one is mafia and one is town.
3. Therefore, I think that lynching between the pair of them is statistically the worst decision we could make today.

Oath began tunneling tchill day 1, and at that time, Oath had pretty much no real information. Oath's chances of randomly tunneling on mafia at that point was 1/4. Therefore, let's just say for the sake of argument, the chance of tchill being mafia was objectively speaking 25%.

So, let's consider:
tchill: Initially 25%

And between tchill and oath, I would say the chances of both being mafia is 0%.

This may sound strange, but to me this says that the chances of tchill being maf today is actually 12.5%. I might come back to this number because it seems low but I believe that's what my premises have left me with.

Now, from there, if you are a regular player, you are looking at three populations:

Known town:
Lalendra
"Krazy" [replace "myself" for you]

The tchill/oath pair, of which one is definitely town, one of which was initially 25% chance to be maf:
Tchill13 -- 12.5% mafia chance (because we are using oath's initial chances rather than today's, and then dividing by 2 since among the 2 at least one is town)
Oath -- 3/8 --> / 2 = 18.7% mafia chance (because we are using today's chances divided by 2)

The rest of the population: 37.5% chance
Sergtacos
Mumble
Yuurei
Nero Cain
ofrhz
Boris
osuka

When I get back from work, I will begin working on my case against Mumble. But in the meantime, I would like you guys to seriously consider the possibility that lynching between Tchill and Oath is the worst possible idea for today.

In summary, I'd like to repeat my main points:
-The strongest conclusion from the tchill/oath interaction is that at least one is town
-As a sub-population of the town, this means both are statistically less likely to be mafia than anyone else
-The chance that they are both town remains quite possible
-Therefore, we should focus on someone else today

Thank you for your time.

[Krazy]

Can you reiterate which actions you find particularly scummy? If I understand your argument so far it amounts to "literally everything" and "just look at him." All I see when I look at tchill is someone who tends to flail around. That's more a null to me with maybe a soft townlean. I feel like I have seen a lot more scum try to lynch flailing town than I've seen flailing scum, personally, but there definitely have been exceptions.

But, OK, say you're right. If tchill is mafia, I'd really like to see his attitude toward Mumble. If we keep this entire conversation deadlocked around two players--neither of which I personally have a very strong scumread on--then we are learning very little today and weakening our chances in the endgame.

From the perspective of pure statistics, though, I maintain that we are more likely to hit mafia outside the tchill/oath duo than we are inside it. Since I also don't have a strong scumread on either one, I am opposed to today being focused on them two despite their insistence today's lynch must be between the two.

[Krazy]

That was @Nero

[Krazy]

mumble has a bit of a lurker meta. He lurked to a win against me once im still irritated about.

I'd love to see him lynched, right after oath.

Compared to osuka's self-vote and whatever is going on with taco, why of the three lurkiest lurkers (iirc) do you prefer Mumble?

[Krazy]

they'd all be lynched if i had it my way. In fact i said if we lynch all the lurkers town probably wins and made multiple statements saying town will find scum regardless of the fact scum are actually posting or not. As in town are determined to see scum no matter who are participating.

You don't see any significant differences among those three slots?

[Krazy]

So I'm still at work so I can't really do a fancy post with lots of quotes and stuff, but tchill still strikes me as null. The scummiest thing I think I've seen is Mumble's unvote on Gus yesterday. I see literally nothing townish at all in anything Mumble has done and the unvote seems way scummier than tchill and oath tunneling each other.

Vote Mumble

Tacos, osuka, tchill, what do you think about unvotes generally, and Mumble's in particular? Do you feel like town in that situation has any good reason to unvote Gus without pursuing a new lead or pushing in a new direction? Do you see anything else in Mumble that makes him seem like he isn't the scummiest player here? Because all I see is active lurking, terrible votes, and defensive play.

[Krazy]

So I'm still at work so I can't really do a fancy post with lots of quotes and stuff, but tchill still strikes me as null. The scummiest thing I think I've seen is Mumble's unvote on Gus yesterday. I see literally nothing townish at all in anything Mumble has done and the unvote seems way scummier than tchill and oath tunneling each other.

Vote Mumble

Tacos, osuka, tchill, what do you think about unvotes generally, and Mumble's in particular? Do you feel like town in that situation has any good reason to unvote Gus without pursuing a new lead or pushing in a new direction? Do you see anything else in Mumble that makes him seem like he isn't the scummiest player here? Because all I see is active lurking, terrible votes, and defensive play.

youll have to pardon me because i actually havent read the whole thread but do you mean real world yesterday or game d1?

I mean game day 1, the only time anyone in this thread had unvoted without voting someone new iirc

[Krazy]

Ladies and gentlemen of the town, I would now like to present: Krazy's Case against Mumble

Please, put on some relaxing music, and enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPWVfCtnGyg
If you are like me, and have just gotten home after work, then perhaps blend yourself a smoothie. I recommend blueberries and oranges.

Now, let's summarize my main points against Mumble:
-Suspicious unvote
-Active lurking
-Unusually bad vote history
-The nightkill

These are in order of what I personally regard as most suspicious to least suspicious

Suspicious Unvote

We have seen a lot of anti-town behavior in this game already, all of which I put on a spectrum of "anti-town but not scummy" to "anti-town and scummy."

VT claims -- clearly anti-town and bad for town-sided power roles. But some people do genuinely find VT boring and I want to say this is NAI.

Fake dayvigs -- In principle, I see this as a sign of boredom and on the whole is NAI, albeit a bit anti-town since I think it's needlessly distracting. But I didn't particularly like the way that the worst did the fake dayvig... it seemed more like fake scumhunting/grooming on tacos than it did even a genuine expression of boredom. Still, I put this closer to NAI than other things on the spectrum.

Self-votes -- In principle, I feel like self-votes are anti-town and start to lean scummy. I don't know what was going on with osuka, but while town does sometimes self vote, I want to say in a game where it's 25% for a player to be mafia, I'd say a player is ~10% more likely to be scum after a self-vote. Not a huge scum-tell but on the scum side of anti-town.

Unvotes -- I feel like this is the scummiest of anti-town behaviors we've seen this game that you can do, particularly in early game. To sit with no vote from the 12th to the 16th means he was providing 0 pressure and 0 associations. Unvoting, particularly if it is starting to look like a wagon is forming on someone, can be a way to avoid major associative tells going into day 2. It's the type of behavior someone would make if they KNOW they will be alive on day 2. There are a lot of reasons for scum to unvote and a lot fewer reasons for town to do it. It draws little attention (usually) while also doing nothing for the town. Yes, sometimes town unvotes. But I want to say that I feel like scum unvotes early game and sits with no vote a solid 20% more frequently than a poorly playing member of the town.

Active Lurking

4 of his posts on the 8th were all fluff, which is a lot. While parking his vote on Ender, he asks ohfrz a really weak question in 221.
491 is weak, and 493 is really weak.

Is the worst just going to be class clown the entire game?

<--I'm a bit at a loss as to how town writes a post like this. So the fake dayvig is anti-town, but he's willing to accept the reaction from tacos as a sign that tacos is town?
Nothing he posted on the 17th, (Iso41+) has any use whatsoever.

Tommy is town, or two scum are on the wagon...though not a fan of Tchill's unvote right after.

Confused about Gustavo's vote switch and comment 764 769

Kinda want to lynch Gustavo 775

What is an "illegal claim" 776

Now I want to lynch the worst 777

Boris could be scum 824

833 Real?

Done trying to fully read 12 pages.

Gustavo is obviously town. Tchill is obviously town.

I'm fine lynching ceejay or osuka. Why is Boris strong town?

1078 is the most involved post for the slot so far, and despite having done a placeholder vote for the worst and thinking boris could be scum refuses to really engage him any more. If Mumble flipped town, I would look at boris since a lot of this feels like distancing without any real attempt to get a wagon going on what seems to be his top suspect. Despite having these fresh reads he does nothing with them and is okay lynching osuka? (who has his own vote as half the wagon for the entire day) or ceejay, conftown. The more I look at this post in context the less town it looks to me.

Unusually Bad Vote History

Vote 1 -- the worst. This is just a placeholder and is NAI. Maybe even distancing?
Vote 2 -- Conftown Enderphoenix. What I dislike about this is that there's no explanation given and so it seems like just another placeholder vote; this isn't meaningful scumhunting. Refusing to engage the new target means the target has nothing to respond to.
Vote 3 -- Votes Tommy for the sake of getting a wagon? And to sheep tchill? Tommy's slot didn't have a lot going on, sure, maybe getting some votes might provoke a reaction, but even to accomplish that this still seems weak. But to be clear, from my perspective, he has by this point done a placeholder and voted 100% conftown.
Vote 4 -- After parking his vote on Tommy for 3 days, without really doing anything with that vote to gain more information, he switches to conftown Gustavo. From my POV this is a placeholder and 0/3, and from anyone else's it's 0/2 + ?/1.
Vote 5 -- An unvote! On day 1, with most wagons floating at half steam, like he's afraid of having been too early on a town-sided lynch and wants to just sideline.
Vote 6 -- Conftown Ceejay. Now 0/4 for me and 0/3 + ?/1 for anyone else.

For day 1 fishing, this slot has come up with only town on its hooks. That's impressively bad luck if so.

The Nightkill

@mod: I retract replace out

I just won't be acknowledging any posts from Gustavo containing insults. I can manage that.

VOTE: Gustavo

Let's get a wagon going.

This is my weakest argument, I know, but I do think it's worth mentioning that if Mumble is scum it would be nearly 100% that Gus dies over Lalendra. Gus suspected Mumble, albeit at like a #2 or #3 spot, and I don't think it's impossible that Mumble would kill Gus for the sheer satisfaction of it, considering he was locked into Gus and Lalendra anyway.

[Krazy]

Like the vote, but also curious what you think Gus was getting wrong about Yuurei

[Krazy]

what's VC?

[Krazy]

Don't like the self-vote to l-2. There's a bunch of people who still have said literally nothing of use today. Mumble hasn't even responded to my fucking case.

And you already unvoted. OK.

Tchill, why are you listing 4 people?

[Krazy]

I'm pretty sure optimal play here is to lynch tchill, but I don't want to put him to l-2 in case he rushes a self-hammer.

[Krazy]

In the scenario that I am mislynched tomorrow, who do you think is most likely out of ohrhz, boris, and osuka?

You would rule out the possibility that I'm right on Mumble and that his non-committal support of the wagon was a weak bus?

[Krazy]

To be honest I've been a bit baffled why tchill sheeped my mumble vote while still insisting it was deadlocked between him and oath without really trying to convince me to go for oath instead. Mostly though this left me null on him because he just seemed desperate, and there was no reason for me to move my vote until Mumble responded. Tchill seemed null because his play makes no sense from any perspective to me. Honestly, a few of his posts did make me nervous that he was trying to get me mislynched tomorrow if he did end up flipping scum today, but I still wanted something from Mumble first.

P.S., I know I'm just coming back to the site and my meta is quite stale, but if you think I would try to save the tchill ship as his scumbuddy in the way that I did, you must think I am pretty trash at playing scum.

[Krazy]

Mumble counter wagon wasn't even l-2... just saying if you're really cop I don't agree with revealing to force a lynch on your guilty when some of the players have literally said nothing today yet

[Krazy]

So just breezing through some meta, this does not particularly strike me as Nero's scum play. For reference: viewtopic.php?t=75571&f=54&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

Nero do you have a game where you were a town-sided power role by any chance?

[Krazy]

Looking at viewtopic.php?f=54&t=75044&start=1275 it does seem like some of Nero's town power role claims come off as fake as shit.

Even so, this one still seems really early for such an experienced player. But I guess I just have to deal with that, because I would only believe the following scenarios:
Nero is real cop and tchill is scum. Nero claimed early for "reasons"

That's the only scenario that makes sense to me based on Nero's meta.

Tchill is 1000% mafia.

Nero is real cop. I still wish I had better leads for tomorrow.

[Krazy]

Yeah tchill what did you think of the sand snakes? I mean they were so hot but they didn't really accomplish much, you know. That whole subplot was a little ???

At this point I'm not sure what good associative tells we'll get cause it's really obvious you're going down. We get to watch who puts on the best show of bussing?

[Krazy]

At this point I'm not sure there's a point in hearing Mumble's response to me today. There is 0% chance he gets lynched today so he can say whatever he wants.

If Nero and Lalendra are good with tchill going down sooner rather than later I'm happy to put to L-1.

[Krazy]

Am I scum because I believe Nero's cop claim despite it being kinda shitty? You were already a top wagon, why on earth would scum fakeclaim to kill you?

[Krazy]

I will say that as scum you put maximum effort into this game and for that I commend you! Great job!

[Krazy]

I'm not going to bother thinking about tchill/nero scumteam unless we're in the world where either one is alive tomorrow, which right now seems to be in the ballpark of .01%.

[Krazy]

You never answered my question about the Sand Snakes. IDK. Play Overwatch? I main Symmetra.

[Krazy]

You dead son, and if you're town then you should be proud that you made Nero basically throw as scum lol. No framers in normal setups, there's nothing that's interesting to think about here. I'm basically switching to Overwatch at this point. I kind of want Lalendra to check in, although I don't know what anyone could say at this point that makes any difference whatsoever.

[Krazy]

I might upgrade ...

[Krazy]

tchill13

[Krazy]

Oh? Is bold name alone not enough? Need to reread rules it looks like.

Very well.

VOTE TCHILL13

[Krazy]

I completely understand, thanks for the heads up!

Here is your obligatory kitten

[Krazy]

Vote Nero Cain

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

Ugh... Oath... you're not scum and you're not getting lynched, don't claim. UGGH

[Krazy]

@Espeonage, please confirm accuracy of Tchill role PM. Are you sure it wasn't one-shot vengeful cop?

[Krazy]

Oath, any foses other than Nero? Bear in mind, I would believe you if you still said you thought Tchill was scum. Scumbuddy Espeonage. This makes sense to me too.

[Krazy]

Maria, the link in your signature is restricted. Also, who's the character in your avatar?

[Krazy]

It's safe to say it's confirmed I'm not a vigilante. Does that answer your question?

[Krazy]

The chances of me voting anyone other than Nero today are 0%.

[Krazy]

My reasoning is that I can't dayvig him so we have to lynch him instead.

[Krazy]

Today is kinda boring because there's 0% chance I vote anything other than Nero. Also, explaining why we have to lynch Nero is a little nauseating.

Basically, his meta is so bad that he could be a VT that fakeclaimed cop. But the problem is,

he knows

his meta is so bad it's plausible he could be a VT fakeclaiming cop. And this is why he's scum and must die.

Scenario 1: He is scum and rushed d2 because there was no need to have his lurker buddies say anything that would draw attention to them. He genuinely wanted Tchill dead because the activity level of the town would plummet and there would be less attention on the lurker scum. I thought this scenario was improbable yesterday because he seemed cocky enough he would not give up a sweep for a rushed d2 and probably d3. But he's SO COCKY he thinks he can actually survive as scum after a fake cop claim.

He fakeclaimed as cop yesterday just so he could say he has a scum win where he fakeclaimed cop and didn't get lynched.

<--this explains 100% of yesterday, and makes more sense to me than the idea that he basically threw as town. His partners aren't going to post much because they want to give him a bit of breathing room to actually try his ploy before they bus. If he wins, he has a dope trophy win. If he loses, eh whatever, he still succeeded in rushing d2 and d3 and town is still basically f'd d4. Like, we are probably not winning this game guys, but I'll be damned if we don't take scumNero down first.

Scenario 2: He gamethrew really hard as town. If so we don't deserve to win anyway with the amount of throwing this town has done. This scenario also includes Nero getting policy'd d1 in every game I play with him hereafter. I would be pretty salty if this is the case but at this point nothing in this game would shock me as far as anti-town behavior goes. This scenario also includes me siding with scum against him in lylo so the game is lost if we don't lynch today anyway (unless I get nightkilled, but that merciful reward is unlikely at this point). I would lynch him through a cop inno right now guys. The salt is real.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KquFZYi6L0

Okay. Yes, let's reasonably discuss the other potential lynches today.

Those lynches include:
Nero Cain
Nero Cain
Nero Cain

I miss any?

[Krazy]

Okay fam.

Story time.

Today I went out. I played some tennis. I got hit in the face with a tennis ball. It hit my glasses, and my glasses cut my nose. Tennis is generally a relatively chill game with low chance of injury, and I managed to get hit in the face and bleed from a game of tennis. This is not my week.

Nero is basically lock town. Today has been 100% policy and I just didn't want to say it because I actually wanted him lynched, and you never get someone lynched if you actually call it a policy lynch.

Here's what happened yesterday. Nero made a stupid fucking joke which he pushed way too far. Three town made serious fucking mistakes at this moment.

Nero made an unfunny joke at the wrong time.

Tchill flipped his shit because he thought Nero was outing himself as scum.

I had forgotten too much about site meta to remember that sane cop with masons is basically unthinkable in mini normal so I didn't just laugh off the claim and get us back on track toward Mumble.

When Tchill flipped, and I looked back over the claim, I thought to myself. Okay. There's a 5% chance that Nero is so aware of how shitty his town meta is that he would pull this. But actually, looking back at it, I think Nero actually thought Tchill would laugh. Nero has committed an unforgivable sin on the internet. He was genuinely unfunny.

Today, thinking about how stupid I was for believing it for even a minute, and so angry at Nero for making such an unfunny joke, I basically planned to death tunnel him today, get him lynched on policy, then make tomorrow (which was almost certainly going to be lylo, because Nero wasn't scum) between me and Mumble. Since Oath is also lock town, I would be 60% on Mumble, which is the highest chances this town has had thus far.

If town sided Mumble, I would be dead, the game would be lost, and we could move on.

If I was right on Mumble, I would get nightkilled, and wouldn't have to bother with anyone else. That's one of the main reasons I stopped caring about today. I was pretty sure that by forcing lylo to be between me and Mumble, there was 0% chance I would be alive at a point in the game where I would actually have to bother figuring out the rest of the scum team.

Basically, I had already written this game off as a loss and just wanted to policy lynch Nero before we went down in a steaming pile of shit.

So now I guess we have a choice.

We can policy lynch Nero, which I am fully on board for, but I am not at all optimistic he flips red.

We can lynch me, which would get me out of the game. I'm fully on board with this too.

I can /out. Not opposed to this, although I hate to inflict this thread on a poor unsuspecting replace-in.

Or we can lynch... I guess... someone else. Mumble preferably.

The problem is here that while Oath is lock town, I'm pretty sure she gave up on this game when she was wrong on Tchill.

Basically, Nero, your joke worked in getting tchill lynched, but literally you have made the rest of the town give up. I am not having fun anymore. I feel like I can't scumhunt because I'm too busy baby sitting.

I'm pretty sure I should just out.

Yeah. Let's do that.

/out

Keeping my vote on Nero because I still fully support a policy on him. The replace-in can decide if they want to move it.

[Krazy]

[Krazy]

Meme Man is hilarious. Seriously some of you people have no sense of humor

I was right on every read as always

This setup seems ???

[Krazy]

Masons died immediately, VT fakeclaimed cop guilty on another VT, and there were three consecutive mislynches on town, but town won

Look at this game and tell me town deserved to win

[Krazy]

Tchill as reasonable as you're trying to come off here you really shouldn't self-hammer as VT

[Krazy]

Yeah Nero, Osuka said your unvote made no sense because your unvote made no sense because YOU DIDNT RETRACT THE CLAIM

When you unvoted, that was the post where you were supposed to retract

[Krazy]

As bad as town play was, the worst's slip was pretty bad.

The nature of mafia is that scum are punished significantly more for mistakes than town because they have fewer people. That's the nature of asymmetric games.

While I still think this setup is definitely townsided, I guess I can see why it wouldn't be "broken bad". I still stick by my "???" assessment of it tho. It doesn't feel like something that belongs in NY to me. This setup feels closer to something that should be in Mayfair.

[Krazy]

I think garmr and gustavo need a marriage therapy pt where they can play out their fantasies in private.

[Krazy]

Espeonage explained multiple times that he was basically in the middle of a family emergency, his mistake was not contacting a list mod for a replacement sooner, the flake itself is forgivable.

[Krazy]

How town can be less bad probably would need its own thread and even that probably does not make a dent in the overall site meta

[Krazy]

This whole thing is basically: "I don't like 1447"

[Krazy]

I'm an even night commuter/odd night PGO mason with Ankamius and the worst.