Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[RockyHorror]

Oh sweet Jesus thank you Jingle for giving me a townread to work with.

Just popping in for a second to say I'm busy but reading and staying mostly caught up. I should be around most of tomorrow and Sunday with more.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Sesq - 5 - RockyHorror, lane0168, innocentvillager, GuiltyLion, FA_Q2
Nero Cain - 3 - Thor665, Almost50, sesq
Almost50 - 3 - Eragon, Jingle, Nero Cain
GuiltyLion - 1 - Fink

Not Voting - Aristophanes

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is Sunday September 2 at 10pm EST

[Jingle]

I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.

[Thor665]

Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.

It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?

I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?

[Nero Cain]

what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is).

Ah, fair enuff. Whats the case on Lane?

Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

I'm claiming you are wrong. I really don't care how you read me; just know that I'm town.

[Thor665]

what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is).

Ah, fair enuff. Whats the case on Lane?

viewtopic.php?p=10406398#p10406398

[lane0168]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

I don't see what is suspect that you're the only one. Why are you so concerned that people switch to me, which is a case that you've admitted is essentially the same as any other?

I don't exactly know what you mean by suspect. You can't suspect anything from something everyone is doing. What is more suspect would be your insistance that the case on me is the same, and therefore I should be voted. Which makes no sense.

[lane0168]

I'll put it this way, if you are a car salesman, would you try to sell a customer the exact same car they already own, and then complain to them because they don't want the same car they already own? Because thats a bad salesman.

Feel free to explain how this is different

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

[lane0168]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

[Jingle]

I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.

Reading this again this morning, I see that it has a different connotation than intended. I don't mean to imply that you're a sex crazed brainless creation of a mad scientist, only that your name is Rocky and thus you should have a picture of Rocky. I apologize for any unintended insult

If I decide you're a sex crazed brainless creation of a mad scientist and I determine that to be the case later, I will outright tell you, not hide it in clever wordplay. I do kind of wish the clever wordplay had been intentional though, because that is the kind of snark I can appreciate.

[Almost50]

If we lynch one mime, we then stop lynching and rely on Vig v Mafia. Annoying as this setup is, it's much better EV than risking an entire game loss on a single mislynch.

And the Mafia shoot the Vig and then they decide the outcome of the game. Great idea. Next.

[Almost50]

Like, if I was Mafia and positively identified the second Mime after one was lynched I wouldn't shoot them until we're in a 2-1-2 situation or something.

[Almost50]

Mimes, additionally, have the hamper that once their wincondition is a real threat (one of them has been lynched) we can mine that player's ISO for hints as to the other mime. It's not quite the same skillset as associative tells with a flipped mafia player, but similar enough that we will be working from a position of increased information BEFORE there is an opportunity for them to win.

I'll reiterate. Assume the Vig got shot. You then did identify the second Mime. Who says Mafia will have to shoot the Mime in this situation? If Mafia keeps shooting Town they'll end up winning anyway, even with that Mime still alive at endgame.

[Almost50]

Thank god for true hero's like jingle

I am the Hero that Arkham deserves.

Jingle replaces UnrealSeal.

Here's for hoping this is a Town slot though (otherwise, we're in deep deep trouble).

The super funny bit is: This post is going to be used to justify a scumread on me in 3... 2... 1...

Nah! I'm just going to watch you burn yourself.

[Jingle]

Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.

It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?

I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?

I could find my way onto a Lane wagon or an Eragon wagon at this point, but neither had any steam when I subbed in and we're kinda at deadline. If you build it I will come though.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere. Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

[Jingle]

If we lynch one mime, we then stop lynching and rely on Vig v Mafia. Annoying as this setup is, it's much better EV than risking an entire game loss on a single mislynch.

And the Mafia shoot the Vig and then they decide the outcome of the game. Great idea. Next.

:thorface:

Mafia has the ability to both discover and kill the vig and discover and not kill the mime in this scenario, both reliably. If discovering the mime is that easy, then we are in no risk of lynching them. If discovering the vig is that easy then the watcher sits on the vig, and provides hard guilties that cannot be mimes. (Hard guilties that, you know, we can still lynch.) If we hit one mafia before the mime, they can't afford shooting likely vigs, because a single watcher guilty ends the game for them.

[RockyHorror]

And for the record, that's the first setup spec I believe I've done.

I think this was in response to my comment, which may have been mis-worded. By "setup spec" I meant I had seen more talk about from you mimes in the setup than attempts at scumhunting.

VOTE: Nero Cain

sorry... you're probably town.....

wtf is this

A50's push on the obviously fake vig claim is so bad it almost has to come from a mime.

oh i should've iso'd you first. but like this to me seems as plausible from goon as mime, like lion said there's too much interchangeable wifom.

Is it so bad is has to come from mime? Or so bad it has to come from scum trying to be like mime? That's where the wifom comes in and you just lynch who you think is not town.

I'm starting to get to this point myself with how much I've gone back and forth between mime and scumreads for some people.

I just read through. This is a very "careful" game. I'm noticing that every other page has a "there's not much to talk about so far" post. Which leads me to believe there may just not be much to talk about. Or every single one of them is scum. Doubt that. It's essentially a whole bunch of gut reads and "shit posting" reads.

I agree with this assessment tbh. People being afraid to lynch a mime has lead to a pretty generalized apathy among the town. The number of replacements hasn't helped either.

Jingle replaces UnrealSeal.

Hmmm.. this player list id getting stronger by the minute. Here's for hoping this is a Town slot though (otherwise, we're in deep deep trouble).?

wtf is this

VOTE: a50

Aggressively serious vote, am caught up, can discuss when not mobile.

Good vote! I also suspect this guy, but I've been a victim of conf!bias before so I'm reluctant to vote there myself.

wtf is this

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?

I love you.

I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.

No idea why I didn't think of that

I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.

Reading this again this morning, I see that it has a different connotation than intended. I don't mean to imply that you're a sex crazed brainless creation of a mad scientist, only that your name is Rocky and thus you should have a picture of Rocky. I apologize for any unintended insult

I mean brainless may be a bit of a stretch, but the rest is pretty accurate tbh. No hard feelings

Okay cool so I'm caught up and feel fairly comfortable doing this.

VOTE: A50

I need to get away from the fear of lynching mimes day 1 mentality and vote my strongest scumread at this point. I'm getting drunk off of the WIFOM.

[RockyHorror]

Also I'll be around for most of the day today if anyone wants to talk

[Almost50]

@Jingle: Why do I feel like you're being manipulative?? First; we're NOT discussing the scenario of "after we lynch one Mafia" here. This is about the game theory from the get go.. no one has been lynched yet.

As such, if I was Mafia and I identified the Vig I will shoot them. If the Watcher catches me then I'll be lynched and my p will shoot the Watcher the next Night. It would still be a win-win situation for the Mafia that way.

HOWEVER, if the Vig

claimed

I would probably consider not shooting them. Why? Because I would be counting on a Mime to block them. The Watcher will stay silent until we are about to lynch the Mime, and then they will out. We will shoot the Watcher first and keep one Mime busy blocking the Vig still. And EVEN if we manage to identify the other Mime the situation still works perfectly for us.

Like, it is OBVIOUS if we lynch a Mime today he game will become MAFIA sided from that point on, but

only if the Vig is outed.

If not, it becomes Mime sided, unless you do intend to go with the "we don't lynch from then on" in which case it becomes MAFIA sided. Why? Because the game was designed with the Town having TWO kills, one of which is by the lynch. We forfeit that for several days and we are giving the game to the side that started off with one kill of three and ended up with one of two.

Your game theory is seriously flawed I can't believe it's coming from you!

[RockyHorror]

[Jingle]

A. Wrong. This is about the scenario of "After we lynch one Mime." Mimes literally don't matter until that point, because they can't win until we lynch TWO mimes.

B. Wronger. Your premise is that the mafia will be able to determine the identities of both of our power roles and the remaining mime. If they accidentally hit the mime, Mimes can't win and we have vig and lynch again. If the vig accidentally hits a mime, we have vig and lynch again. If the watcher gets a result on the mime, we have vig and lynch again. In none of these scenarios does the vig actually have to out. Therefore, No Lynching (after hitting one mime) is giving scum the advantage if and only if both scum are still alive AND scum have better PR reads than our PRs have scum reads. The remaining mime will be aiming to roleblock both scum and vig equally because they only care who is likely to shoot them.

C. Wrongest. This game is balanced with the thought that town will be distracted by the presence of mimes and unable to scumhunt effectively. The trick to defeating that is to ignore the mimes and look for players who are likely to be scum. Mimes only matter if we lynch one.

Which leads us back to the point. Mimes are a distraction until they have already achieved half of their wincondition. Then, we can literally invalidate their wincondition without throwing the game if they become the larger threat. Therefore, focusing on Mimes is scummy as fuck.

In hindsight, I was wrong that their wincon is fully invalidated (if scum manage to find both PRs and shoot them before mimes exit the game we have to begin lynching again, which means they CAN win, although it remains incredibly unlikely.) It's just so unlikely that it really doesn't matter.

[Jingle]

Point. I'll stop engaging in setup spec for now. I do tend to let it bog me down.

[Jingle]

Hey, GL. What made the A50 wagon bad back in the day? Are you more interested now that it has Jingle?

[Sesq]

rocky, dont take my post out of context

also i think lane already alluded to this but i hope you all realize that anyone you mimeread could be scum posturing as such? just thought that was important

VOTE: almost50 because thats a good case. previously considered it to just be "part of the townplay" but that was a good job at deconstructing that, and even if it is just honest play its BAD play. his "defense" was meagre and that tipped me over