SUPP 2017 MAFIA: COMPLETE


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Post Post #2551 (isolation #0) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:47 pm

Post by Krazy »

Hi we're in day?
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Post Post #2554 (isolation #1) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:49 pm

Post by Krazy »

unvote


Cool. What's up guys? Do we have an estimated scum count? Seems like a lot of good guys are dead.
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Post Post #2558 (isolation #2) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:50 pm

Post by Krazy »

Well this looks like a mess.

Vote Vaxkiller


Why do people think Shepherd is better than this?
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Post Post #2560 (isolation #3) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:58 pm

Post by Krazy »

Unvote


Ok let me understand a bit more. What is even possible in large theme? There's so much wacky nonsense, we're thinking mafia/sk is not immune to det?

Well there's three others anyway.
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Post Post #2561 (isolation #4) » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:06 pm

Post by Krazy »

Vote DeasVail
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Post Post #2580 (isolation #5) » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:11 am

Post by Krazy »

So I have seen why maria thinks vax is a bad lynch but why is shepherd a good lynch. Hi Deas! Do you feel lucky or unlucky that you rolled mafia this game?
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Post Post #2602 (isolation #6) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:23 am

Post by Krazy »

So is there no sk or did one of them hit NI? Also what happened to all those vigs?

Hoping I didnt lowkey throw by not joining cshep wagon yesterday. I foolishly did not accept an extension right when I joined and didnt get caught up.

Anything ln change anyones thoughts on cshep?
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Post Post #2607 (isolation #7) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:51 am

Post by Krazy »

Deas you don't like cshep today anymore?
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Post Post #2616 (isolation #8) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:01 pm

Post by Krazy »

So yeah, yesterday I was worried that CShep was SK with a mafia train on him, but now that Maria flipped I think he's just scum. This pretty much nukes my reading of Deas too, so I'm hoping I didn't throw last night. At the time I was thinking I could prevent an organized mafia quickhammer today.

Is there any chance that Vax is both nightkill and detection immune as GF? IMO seems unlikely. Vax is SK or Vax is town, either way he does not get lynched today. Mafia is too far in the lead.

Then again I basically don't play large themes so maybe setup speculation like that is wrong.
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Post Post #2617 (isolation #9) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:03 pm

Post by Krazy »

Vax is Shoshin GF or mafia roleblocker?
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Post Post #2624 (isolation #10) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:26 pm

Post by Krazy »

Yes. It's my thing. It's a weird role and I'm pretty sure I'm playing it wrong, but it seems... interesting.
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Post Post #2626 (isolation #11) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:32 pm

Post by Krazy »

I get to choose someone and the next day we have to vote together.
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Post Post #2628 (isolation #12) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:51 pm

Post by Krazy »

I'll say some more about it later. I'd like to hear from Deas about his thoughts on CShep.
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Post Post #2631 (isolation #13) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Krazy »

Vote CShep


Spoiler alert that's L-2.
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Post Post #2633 (isolation #14) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:24 pm

Post by Krazy »

That this day isn't over already strongly suggests to me that C.Shep is scum.

I've already half-claimed, which is as much as I'm saying right now.
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Post Post #2638 (isolation #15) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:57 pm

Post by Krazy »

This large theme involves way too much math.

Why is C.Shep not scum?
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Post Post #2639 (isolation #16) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 6:59 pm

Post by Krazy »

We're also behind in the race. Why are you not shooting him during the night and lynching higher ranked scum?
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Post Post #2641 (isolation #17) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:15 pm

Post by Krazy »

I'm convinced that you don't think he's scum but I'm not convinced that you're not some third party bullshit. This fucks up my reads some, but not quite enough to change votes.

Your roleclaim is way too convoluted to be entirely fake. But at a glance it kinda seems way too dope to be town-aligned.
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Post Post #2643 (isolation #18) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:23 pm

Post by Krazy »

Sheeping Maria.

Wish I had a more compelling reason, but I'm pretty lost in this game, and Maria's reads were the only thing that at any point made sense to either me or my predecessor.
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Post Post #2647 (isolation #19) » Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:50 pm

Post by Krazy »

I guess Chara was skeptical of the speed of hammers but I kind of don't think scum let Shepherd not get lynched yesterday if he's town. That's probably not very good reasoning though.

At some point I need to sit down and work up a flowchart of wtf is even going on in this game. Right now feeling better about Shepherd than anyone else though.
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Post Post #2656 (isolation #20) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:02 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 2650, Commander Shepard wrote:
In post 2647, Krazy wrote:I guess Chara was skeptical of the speed of hammers but I kind of don't think scum let Shepherd not get lynched yesterday if he's town. That's probably not very good reasoning though.

At some point I need to sit down and work up a flowchart of wtf is even going on in this game. Right now feeling better about Shepherd than anyone else though.
If you’re feeling better about me why are you voting me?

Wouldn’t you feel worse about me?

*confused*

Second off there is 11 alive likely 4 scum 1 SK and I doubt Vax is truthtelling but if he is then whatever he is.

This means 3 deaths possible overnight.
Lynch correctly or lose range

Shoshin if you have an explanation for why the fuck you are alive I wanna hear it.
Feel better about you = feel better about you (being the lynch for today)
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Post Post #2657 (isolation #21) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:06 am

Post by Krazy »

Mostly because I went to sleep and you were not hammered. Not very good but it sure does seem like there is real resistance to your wagon.

Although there also arent just a ton of people diving on fire. Still. In this gamestate hanging at l-2 for a day with this many scum seems telling to me.
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Post Post #2659 (isolation #22) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:17 am

Post by Krazy »

if theres no sk then is punreader gf?
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Post Post #2660 (isolation #23) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 11:20 am

Post by Krazy »

the worst do you have another option other than vax today?
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Post Post #2663 (isolation #24) » Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:49 pm

Post by Krazy »

Well we have 11 players and at least two claims so who you waiting on?
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Post Post #2712 (isolation #25) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 6:07 am

Post by Krazy »

Still on board with shep.
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Post Post #2718 (isolation #26) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Krazy »

Posting to show that I'm online and not quickhammering Shoshin.
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Post Post #2725 (isolation #27) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:52 pm

Post by Krazy »

Hottake: Shoshin is SK, Pun is Maf, Vax is town. C.Shep is scum roleblocker which is why Shoshin is voting him.

Why am I wrong? I mean I'm sure I am I just don't know why yet.
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Post Post #2727 (isolation #28) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:58 pm

Post by Krazy »

What's your flavor and role name again?
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Post Post #2728 (isolation #29) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by Krazy »

Why does Shoshin not claiming a killing ability mean she is not SK?

Pun is confirmed killing role but I don't see how that removes him from being GF.
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Post Post #2780 (isolation #30) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:52 pm

Post by Krazy »

Is this a good time to mention that I'm commuting with DV tonight?

No?

Ok nevermind.
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Post Post #2782 (isolation #31) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:53 pm

Post by Krazy »

You seem like a bad guy.
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Post Post #2785 (isolation #32) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by Krazy »

Is you the maf?
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Post Post #2799 (isolation #33) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:18 pm

Post by Krazy »

Guys, I think C.Shep might be maf but this is just a working theory, hear me out tho ok?
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Post Post #2801 (isolation #34) » Mon Jul 30, 2018 5:20 pm

Post by Krazy »

Pun probably really is NI. We lynch him tomorrow if this game isn't over from whatever fucking bomb just went off.
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Post Post #2820 (isolation #35) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:53 am

Post by Krazy »

Huh, Fire Assassin bussed. Dope.

LOL DV we are still alive!

Image

So Espeonage claimed vig? Esp what has been going on with you and night actions?

Sho why is the worst best lynch today?
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Post Post #2827 (isolation #36) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:45 am

Post by Krazy »

Maybe just say them?
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Post Post #2828 (isolation #37) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:51 am

Post by Krazy »

So Shoshin, I spent the entire day bussing instead of hammering you? After I had spent the previous day not on the bus and having no stated intention of getting on it?

Maybe you should work on a theory that doesn't involve me throwing the game as scum.

Why is Guac and Esp town?
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Post Post #2841 (isolation #38) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:56 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 2832, Shoshin wrote:
In post 2718, Krazy wrote:Posting to show that I'm online and not quickhammering Shoshin.
Like, why even make this post if you're town?
Why wouldn't I? I was a slot that could double vote in what was probably lylo. To make it abundantly clear that I was damn near role-confirmed obvtown so I wouldn't have to deal with bullshit like this today. Of everyone, you are the one I do not get thinking I'm scum, since this game would literally already be over if I was and you are not. That this game is even still going when I had a double vote in probable-lylo is pretty strong fucking evidence that I'm not scum.
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Post Post #2850 (isolation #39) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:33 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 2545, Dunnstral wrote:vax is cop checked
espe is cop checked
I'm cop checked

None of these are viable by mechanics right now - we wait a day and then we sort out the cops. This is why I want to lynch CommanderShepard
Not Voting (8): Punreader, Krazy, DeasVail, Espeonage, the worst, Shoshin, guacamole, Vaxkiller

DeasVail could not have done the scum nightkill because I roleblocked him last night.

Guac and the worst were off the bus, have no cop checks on them, and were not roleblocked last night.
In post 2803, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 2750, Shoshin wrote:Hey Dunn, what're your reads?
Espe Town, Punreader Town, Vaxkiller Town, guacamole likely town by role, krazy seems towny too

Maybe I should take another look at DeasVeil
Sheeping Dunn on TRs leaves me to conclude the worst is likely scum through PoE. What is the defense of the worst at the moment?
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Post Post #2856 (isolation #40) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:04 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 2852, DeasVail wrote: Krazy, I am also slightly confused by your approach to me over the last couple of game-days. Obviously you came into the game suspecting me, which is fair, yet seemed to be questioning that read from the beginning of Day 4. seems to imply that you think I am town? However then you revealed that you roleblocked me, which I find to be a strange choice given that I believe you had reason to think that I would not be performing the night kill as scum. This is also unconfirmed, but I actually don't believe I was successfully roleblocked last night? This will become more clear later.

Although I'm not sure how much you understood what happened, I was thinking you were basically locktown when you did not fight me on C.Shep vote or try to get things going on Shoshin. But it is possible you didn't even know you could control the vote? I honestly have no idea how clear the mod explanation was, because I was pretty fucking confused the first time I read it. I would not have targeted you if I had understood how the role worked LOL. Thankfully my replace-in reads were bad enough that it worked out by accident.
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Post Post #2857 (isolation #41) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by Krazy »

Did anyone get a cat last night?
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Post Post #2866 (isolation #42) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:23 pm

Post by Krazy »

lol I didn't even know that you were confirmed visiting role.

Listen, I had no idea what the fuck was going on in this game. I looked at a town that hadn't flipped anything good and was like, "well that wagon is probably scum, so DV is scum, ez." So my plan was to deny your vote (because I thought we both had to agree, rather than both controlling each other's), and also roleblock you. Let's not overestimate my sense of the game state before Maria flipped and I realized Chara had a waaaay better read of the game than I did.

Who did you give a cat to last night?

@Shoshin, if you don't want to get mislynched please explain why the worst is better than you atm.
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Post Post #2871 (isolation #43) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:30 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 2870, Shoshin wrote:I don't think the worst is scum.

Last scum is among Krazy, Guac, or DV. I need to figure out who it is, though.
OK, I'm only interested in your case on Guac in that case.
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Post Post #2874 (isolation #44) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:34 pm

Post by Krazy »

I'm convinced DV is not the scum that made the nightkill last night because I roleblocked him last night. While this doesn't make him locktown, it makes him not a viable lynch option for today.
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Post Post #2879 (isolation #45) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:47 pm

Post by Krazy »

My roleblock is both fucking delayed and limited to two shots. If it can also be denied then this setup is shit. I am choosing not to believe that right now so DV is off the table for today.

I have yet to hear someone say they got a cat last night.
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Post Post #2880 (isolation #46) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:52 pm

Post by Krazy »

This is is really fucking weird because I almost feel like Shoshin is trying to talk me into concluding he's the GF.

Shoshin, you're saying: The worst is town, Espe is town, and Screen/guac are town. Pun killed FA? DV didn't make the nightkill. And I didn't make the nightkill. So who the fuck is the scum that made the nightkill, Shoshin?

Either you're wrong about one of Espe/Screen/the worst, Vax is a godfather, or you just hardclaimed scum. (From my pov)
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Post Post #2884 (isolation #47) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:06 pm

Post by Krazy »

Moreover, it's all one action. The roleblock is a consequence of the same action that merged our votes. So I already have confirmation that the night action targeting DV worked since our votes were merged yesterday.
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Post Post #2886 (isolation #48) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by Krazy »

is u da maf?

If not, who made the scum nightkill. Choices are: Shoshin, guac, espe, (Vax?).
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Post Post #2888 (isolation #49) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:13 pm

Post by Krazy »

Are you saying the scum is John Wilkes Booth?
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Post Post #2931 (isolation #50) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:14 pm

Post by Krazy »

My body is ready.
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Post Post #2934 (isolation #51) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:22 pm

Post by Krazy »

I am on the edge of my seat for the worst claim.

Image
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Post Post #2942 (isolation #52) » Fri Aug 03, 2018 5:57 pm

Post by Krazy »

As of yet I have no problem with the worst + guac for scum team but I do want to see the worst's claim before I start trying to make associations.
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Post Post #2950 (isolation #53) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 8:06 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 2948, the worst wrote:I'm a flavour cop of sorts--I don't get alignment indicative results tho.

Full details following those 3 fullclaims because my claim is actually a bit spicier that I thought it was.
How are you confirmed if everyone fullclaims before your flavor cop results?

It seems like you have to claim before some people otherwise there is no way to confirm you.

Your logic seems backward.
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Post Post #2964 (isolation #54) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:55 pm

Post by Krazy »

I have yet to hear a logical reason of why a flavor cop needs a mass reveal before they claim results.
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Post Post #2969 (isolation #55) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:44 pm

Post by Krazy »

Esp, so you think worst is killing scum?

Can you expand on this reasoning?
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Post Post #2971 (isolation #56) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:45 pm

Post by Krazy »

Also, I understand that DUNN gambles, but Espe, what was your role aside from Dunn's bet? Isn't the bet more a function of Dunn's role than of yours?
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Post Post #2979 (isolation #57) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 1:56 pm

Post by Krazy »

Not gonna lie, considering how much swingy garbage is in this setup, I feel like Espe's claim is too boring to be real.

Still want the worst to stop stalling though.
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Post Post #2982 (isolation #58) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:00 pm

Post by Krazy »

That being said Dunn's reads are usually not total shit so if he didn't kill Esp on n2 maybe it was convincing enough for him.

Worst, I'm not ignoring you. I refused. Right now, you are my top suspect, so if you can hard-clear yourself, that is more valuable to me than knowing I'm hard-cleared to you.
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Post Post #2985 (isolation #59) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:03 pm

Post by Krazy »

I have one part of my role already mod-confirmed through the vote combination and another part de facto confirmed through the lack of a cat reception. You claim flavor cop, so cop some flavor.
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Post Post #3015 (isolation #60) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:27 pm

Post by Krazy »

I feel like guac probably has some second part to his role too. He can't just be connector in a setup this wacky.

Vax, who do you think made the nightkill on Dunn?

I'm about ready to hear the worst's results and I'm getting tired of his bullshit AtE.

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Post Post #3024 (isolation #61) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:35 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3020, Vaxkiller wrote:
In post 0, Errantparabola wrote:3. Punreader *
5. DeasVail
6. Espeonage
9. the worst
11. Shoshin
14. Krazy *
15. guacamole *
16. Vaxkiller
Err oh, there isnt much of us alive. I need to buckle down I guess. Dunn...... I dunno outta this group dunn is a good player (no offense) i can see anyone killing him
Right, but I roleblocked DV, and Punreader shot FA (who is not in your list for reasons?). So excluding yourself, that includes Espeonage, the worst, Shoshin, and guac. Four possibilities; who do you think is most likely to have made the night kill on Dunn?
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Post Post #3027 (isolation #62) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 2:40 pm

Post by Krazy »

I mean in terms of PoE. Which of those players do you believe to be town and therefore not scum. Who would you eliminate as a possibility if any? i.e. Do you think Shoshin bussed yesterday?
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Post Post #3040 (isolation #63) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:19 pm

Post by Krazy »

So "NOVICE" was enough from Vax for you?
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Post Post #3056 (isolation #64) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by Krazy »

So, let me get this fucking straight.

You have results on all of jack and shit people alive.

But you NEEED a fucking massclaim first?

Your role sounds like horseshit and your play seems like horseshit.
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Post Post #3063 (isolation #65) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Krazy »

I haven't been stalling shit. You wanted an unnecessary massclaim on FLAVOR after I have already CLAIMED MECHANICS. THE ONLY VALUE POSSIBLE FROM YOUR FUCKING FLAVOR COP CLAIM WAS TO SHOW YOU HAVE CONFIRMABLE NIGHT MECHANICS. WHAT ABOUT THIS DO YOU NOT FUCKING GET? ANYONE CLAIMING BEFORE YOU WOULD BE DENYING THE ONLY CONCEIVABLE FUCKING VALUE FROM YOUR FUCKING CLAIM.

This slot dies today. At this point I don't even care about his results.
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Post Post #3083 (isolation #66) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:32 pm

Post by Krazy »

The worst is scum, so this is fine.

I am a two-shot befriender, which is a stupid fucking name for a very swingy and hard to play role. I found it very stressful and did not like replacing in to this slot tbh.

It has three mechanics.
1 -- It combines your vote with someone else the next day
2 -- It denies BOTH of your next night actions
3 -- It makes all night actions the next night target both of you

When I shot DV, I did so on the hope that if he was scum I would A) prevent a badhammer in near-lylo, and b) prevent a nightkill on myself, since he would know he would be taking me down with him.

Chara apparently shot Maria, which he thought was null at the time I guess, which seems incredibly risky since he both blocked one of her joat shots and also risked generating a free scum double kill. But whatever, wasn't my choice.

I was VERY INSISTENT that the worst claim first, since if he claimed targeting me OR DV last night, that would have effectively CONFIRMED BOTH OF OUR ROLES. I NEVER mentioned the third consequence of my night action so there is no way he could have anticipated this and it would have been a very hard confirmation.

When I started thinking DV might be town, this is also why I was worried I gamethrew by targeting him when I did, which is why I also said I was commuting him, to hopefully avoid a free scum double kill.

In terms of FLAVOR, which I thought the worst was saying he cops, I also noticed that the image used did not match the avatar of the player it is based on, which I thought would be another way to hard confirm the worst if he had targeted me. (It's some pokemon shit, but the avatar of the player it's based on is that same pokemon shit but with glasses)

Summary: The worst's role is unconfirmable horseshit that dies today.
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Post Post #3084 (isolation #67) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:33 pm

Post by Krazy »

Point 3 was mistyped.

It makes all night actions that target either one of you target both.

This role is so fucking weird I can't even explain it right.
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Post Post #3089 (isolation #68) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:37 pm

Post by Krazy »

Exactly. If you had flavor copped me OR DV, you would have gotten confusing fucking results, which is why I wanted you to claim first so that you could be hard confirmed as having a real visiting role.

My role would be hilariously overpowered from a scum perspective.
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Post Post #3091 (isolation #69) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:40 pm

Post by Krazy »

Vote manipulation that is not affected by lylo/mylo, that can both deny vig kills and also bring down townies in event of a vig target?

I mean you can say that's not overpowered for scum, but if so I wouldn't want you on the design team.
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Post Post #3094 (isolation #70) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:41 pm

Post by Krazy »

So you're saying you received a cat?
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Post Post #3097 (isolation #71) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:43 pm

Post by Krazy »

This is great.

Either: A) We lynch the worst today, and kill the killing scum.

Or B) We lynch me, and then lynch the worst, followed by DV, for game win.

Nice.

Today is now deadlocked between me and the worst, have fun guys.
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Post Post #3100 (isolation #72) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 4:55 pm

Post by Krazy »

Just to be clear, the worst is accusing me of hardclaiming scum, locking us into a 1v1, because I am claiming I roleblocked a role which I knew had already visited me with a cat and therefore had a confirmable night action.
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Post Post #3104 (isolation #73) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:03 pm

Post by Krazy »

DV, is there any explanation for the worst claiming to have received a cat other than you two both being a scumteam together?

Like, I don't understand how a fruit vendor can be un-roleblocked. Maybe there is a mechanical out or some other wacky bullshit. This is a large theme. But it sure seems like you two both claimed scum together, which seems way too easy.

@DV, I chose to target you when I had read about 10% of this game and had zero idea what was going on. I literally did not even understand how my own role worked. I only realized you gave me a cat and weren't a killing role when I saw the cat gifs.
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Post Post #3107 (isolation #74) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:10 pm

Post by Krazy »

Dude, I thought Shepherd was serial killer and Vax was Godfather. I thought Maria was scum and that scum-Maria had found the serial killer. Since there'd been no nightkill, I assumed scum had a scum roleblocker and had targeted Shepherd and confirmed as the SK.

Let's just say my reads in the first 12 hours of entering the game had very little relation to reality.
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Post Post #3119 (isolation #75) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:40 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3108, Shoshin wrote:Okay, sure. They clearly didn't have much relation to reality. But then why'd you believe that? Like, explain how you arrived at those conclusions.
OK, you want a trip into "Krazy has just entered his first large theme in half a decade" fantasy land?

Point of evidence: Town has lynched nothing but town for the entire game and I just replaced-in to a townslot that for all I knew gave up hope on figuring out this game. This led me to suspect most of the town had no idea what was going on in this game.
Possible conclusion: The leading wagon is probably scum-led at this point

Point of evidence: There is a wagon on CS.
Question: Why is there a wagon on CS?

Point of evidence: There is a missing SK nightkill.
Possible conclusion: Scum have found the SK?

Point of Evidence 2 : There is a missing shot on CS
Possibility 2: The scum think the SK is NI so they have to kill it through lynch for gamewin

1-Hour of Large Theme Conclusion: CS is the SK, has NI, was roleblocked, and therefore this wagon is a mafia-led wagon lynching the SK so they can use their roleblocks elsewhere

Premise 2: Town needs SK alive, since this might be lylo, or very close to lylo. At this point, SK aims for scum. At the very least, SK continues to be roleblocked and votes with town.

Wild guess: The GF is the person who doesn't have many/any votes on him

Bear in mind you are interrogating a vote I cast having literally been in the game for 1 hour and trying to make sense of one hundred pages of large theme nonsense. I didn't even see Maria's inno at that point. Vax seemed like a decent guess for GF for a first impression.

[Now leaving "Krazy has just entered a large theme fantasyland"]
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Post Post #3120 (isolation #76) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:54 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3112, guacamole wrote:So the funny thing is, I didn't target anyone last night.

Someone else has a similar role?
TW and punreader have some other kind of communication?
punreader was testing me and TW decided to go along?
punreader and TW are both lying?
So if I understand this right.

The worst claims that he received a cat from a roleblocked cat vendor (DV)
The worst claims that he communicated with Pun through Guac
Guac says he did not connect Pun and the worst
Pun says he did receive a message from the worst.

Like, I don't even

I don't know what fucking bullshit is going on today, I should probably unvote, but right now I'm still so angry at the worst that I'm keeping my vote where it is. But there had to be some sort of night action bullshit.
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Post Post #3121 (isolation #77) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:56 pm

Post by Krazy »

to be clear, the worst still has not fullclaimed with flavor or indicated his actual results on pun
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Post Post #3123 (isolation #78) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 6:52 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3122, DeasVail wrote:Because there was no way of a hypothetical DV/worst scumteam knowing that I had been roleblocked at that stage
At the end of my action it says "Your target will be informed of this."

"Your target will be informed of this" -- this here is a bit unclear, but I read that as to mean that you should have been aware that you would be roleblocked.

As far as I know, you were aware you would be roleblocked and could have communicated with the worst that you would be roleblocked last night. What exactly did the mod say about the consequence of my shot on you?
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Post Post #3126 (isolation #79) » Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:01 pm

Post by Krazy »

unvote
until I know what that means
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Post Post #3133 (isolation #80) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 8:32 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3130, the worst wrote:hold on fam.
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Post Post #3135 (isolation #81) » Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Krazy »

OK, so DV is not the worst's buddy. Or at least, not automatically. I want to say... probably not? I feel like that is unlikely at this point based on the way real-life yesterday went.

The ongoing mechanical question is how we account for the worst connecting with pun when guac denies doing that.

I'm still inclined to say the worst has a better than average chance to be scum and we still need his results on pun.

But it's not impossible guac bought into the confusion of real-life yesterday to incriminate the worst even more. So idk.

Feel like today is now guac vs. the worst.

the worst, what do you make of guac saying he didn't connect you?
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Post Post #3146 (isolation #82) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:01 am

Post by Krazy »

So the worst had already been targeted by it once. I find it odd that guac would target you twice with his ability.
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Post Post #3148 (isolation #83) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:44 am

Post by Krazy »

That's weird, then I should have gotten your connection too.

(Although, at this point... mod error possible?)
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Post Post #3149 (isolation #84) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:45 am

Post by Krazy »

No wait, Chara shot Maria N1, so N2 I would have received it, N3 I would not.

K nvm
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Post Post #3154 (isolation #85) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:38 am

Post by Krazy »

So you are an everynight connector. Why would you not connect every night?

Trying this on for size.

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Post Post #3167 (isolation #86) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:23 pm

Post by Krazy »

Can you expand on why you think Shoshin is town? What do you make of Pun's theory?
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Post Post #3168 (isolation #87) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:35 pm

Post by Krazy »

Also, I don't know how weird this question is, but what type of cat did you get before you did not receive a cat? Or can you not say since now you didn't receive it?

Who else got cats again? Did they ever say what type of cat they got?

DV do you get to choose the cat type?
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Post Post #3171 (isolation #88) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:15 pm

Post by Krazy »

Shoshin, what type of cat did you receive N2?

DV, why did you not send a cat N1?
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Post Post #3172 (isolation #89) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:19 pm

Post by Krazy »

I find it weird that two every-night visitors would both skip N1, and that Guac would skip both N1 and N4. I just don't see how a town-aligned connector doesn't use his ability every night. And I have 0 clues as to why a town-aligned DV would not send a cat N1. In what world does a cat fruit vendor not vend cat fruit N1?
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Post Post #3173 (isolation #90) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 6:20 pm

Post by Krazy »

Like the whole point of fruit vendor would be to demonstrate tracker sanity. So not vending cat fruit would be lowkey gamethrowing... if you're aligned with the town.
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Post Post #3183 (isolation #91) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by Krazy »

Oh, so Chara got super lucky then, since Maria would not have been able to use her ability that night anyway. The delayed roleblock from Chara stacked with the delayed self-roleblock from getting the cop result. Dope.

@DV, I forgot about your Nahdia bit, I was looking at the more recent summary of your night actions.

I only mention it because I received a black cat. A very stupid and minor pet theory was that the town roles tended to be more cute and the scum roles tended to be more brawny or
spooky
. So while cats are cute, maybe black cats are spooky and would fit the scum aesthetic better. But I was mostly trying to get a better sense of whether you actually got to choose different cats for different people, since if different people were receiving different cats maybe that indicated you were not actually just a cat vendor.

I guess DV has been cat vending each night then, in which case Guac is the one whose night actions just make no sense to me whatsoever.
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Post Post #3189 (isolation #92) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:19 pm

Post by Krazy »

Can everyone remind me why Espeonage is a TR?

Looking back at his day one, I can see a MASSIVE INCENTIVE for him to have been scum and played that the way he did.

A) He spent an unusually large part of the day saying how scummy FA was, ignoring a large chunk of the other players, which would make sense since he KNOWS there is a chance Dunn just straight up kills him and that his flip would probably make FA look like an intended mislynch (if Esp is scum)
B) He basically spends the whole day hard buddying Dunn with the weird confusion over the roles, which makes sense since he needs him to not kill him if the bet goes for Dunn

I strongly dislike going over my graveyard sheeping of Dunn on one of his stronger TRs, but Espeonage's role just seems weird in relation to Dunns. Why would Dunn be able to vanillaize what is already a VT after d1? Not even a neighborhood?

Tomorrow I'm going to reread the thread, but if anyone wants to explain why Espeonage is obvtown that would help.
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Post Post #3191 (isolation #93) » Mon Aug 06, 2018 8:51 pm

Post by Krazy »

Well yeah they had already committed to cross-bus because Espeonage had a 15% higher mortality rate than any other scum slot, if so. I mean Dunn's role was real and they knew it. So the #1 priority for Espeonage D1 would be cross-bussing imo. This whole game mode highly incentivizes early game cross-bussing.

Like is Espeonage known for having dope-ass reads and singling out a scum on d1? Or have some other meta grudge against FA? Cause that seems super targeted at a glance.

But yeah, rereading tomorrow.
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Post Post #3197 (isolation #94) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 8:43 am

Post by Krazy »

Going through some rereading. I'm going to do some wall-ish posts mostly for my own notes. Sorry if they are cluttering the thread. I'll spoiler.
Spoiler:
In post 60, TehBrawlGuy wrote:For the record, I highly suggest we do not claim the scummer our role is based off of. Set-ups in this style often have things that operate based on role identities.

I do kind of wonder whether the worst's fake flavor cop grab had a mechanical incentive.
In post 63, Fire Assassin wrote: Town-
The Worst
Chara
Shis
In normal day 1 Krazy logic, I would say scum doing a list of three like this means all three are town. But this is large theme. Esp's suspicion of FA seems based on this post/list.
In post 135, Dunnstral wrote:Hi, this is a thing.

For my role, I need Fire Assassin to be rated highly today
It occurs to me that it would be fucking weird for Espeonage to have a day one objective be to have his ally rated lowly, but weird seems like the exact kind of thing this setup is going for so idk maybe it's NAI.

Also, my late night thoughts last night... OF COURSE ESP is focused on FA, because FA is the focus of his BET.

This bet nonsense makes day 1 practically unreadable. OK great.

End of page 11 and I slightly want to go back to the worst for today's lynch.

***

Holy shit Taly is the most obvtown that ever obvtowned.
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Post Post #3199 (isolation #95) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Krazy »

Through the 20s and I can see why Chara ranked Screenplay lowest. I am way okay with Guac's slot dying either by lynch or shooting, so if Pun won't confirm he'll shoot we might want to just lynch it.

I'm still thinking about Espeonage's slot. If you're designing a large theme, do you design a the bet to give two otherwise VTs something to do? Or do you design it as a 4D chess challenge for a mafia goon, to try to get their buddy voted lowly, but not SO lowly that they get killed N1 during ranking elimination? I'm inclined to read the role as NAI, and if we are going by play Esp has been pretty active-lurky.

Going back and forth between the worst and Espeonage. I forgot that Chara actually ranked Espeonage below DV, so if I am sheeping Chara rather than Dunn Espeonage might actually be the better lynch for today.

But the worst's fake rolecop bullshit still has me so suspicious because now I'm really worried he had a mechanical reason for wanting to do that.

Probably gonna take a break before I tackle the 30s and on again. Sorry that I'm doing stream of consciousness rather than big conclusive posts but posts like this really help me get my thoughts straight.
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Post Post #3203 (isolation #96) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:15 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3201, the worst wrote:feels omgusy but I kinda think {guac, Krazy} contains the last scum
Why are you assuming only one more scum and why is Espeonage not in that list?
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Post Post #3204 (isolation #97) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:25 pm

Post by Krazy »

I've reread enough to shift to this.

Vote Espeonage


Current proposal is lynch espeonage, shoot guac.

Pun are you on board for this?

Shoshin, if you think the worst is better lynch than Esp please explain why.
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Post Post #3206 (isolation #98) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:07 pm

Post by Krazy »

DV is town because:
1) Chara is better at this game than I am and Chara decided he was town.
2) Dunn is better at this game than I am and Dunn decided he was town.
3) He almost certainly did not make the night kill which makes his overall likelihood to be scum significantly less.
4) If DV is not town, he would be arsonist, in which case, EXPLODING CATS ARE A HILARIOUS GAME END and I want to see it happen regardless of who wins as a result.

DV is most likely town, possibly third party, but unlikely to be scum. If he is third party, he has not given out enough cats for game win yet.

Conversely. Espeonage is scum because:

1) Chara saw Espeonage's D1 play as among the worst of the remaining living players.
2) Taly only warmed up to Espeonage because of the role claim bullshit with Dunn, and I think that was misguided because the role seems highly suspect to me.
3) Espeonage's play with FA makes more sense for bussing scum than town, and that goes both ways, especially considering both were incentivized to cross-bus by the game setup.
4) I have seen nothing that makes me think he's town.
5) His claim seems inelegant for a game setup that spent months in QA and therefore is likely fake.

To be clear, Guac is still scummier than espeonage, and if pun will not shoot him, he is a better lynch over Esp. I'm only focusing on Espeonage because I am hoping Pun will get on board with shooting guac.
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Post Post #3213 (isolation #99) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:13 pm

Post by Krazy »

I wait with hushed breath to be released from the forest of confusion and thrust into the sunny fields of enlightenment.
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Post Post #3234 (isolation #100) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:36 pm

Post by Krazy »

Sho makes a pretty good point about Esp, but what the fuck is with people and always wanting to say "oh but there's one more thing but I'm not going to mention it."
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Post Post #3240 (isolation #101) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:43 pm

Post by Krazy »

So is your working theory still the worst + guac then?

If so, basically I'd want you to explain why Taly was so wrong on the slot. I mostly moved off the worst because I reread Taly.
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Post Post #3241 (isolation #102) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by Krazy »

Vote Guac
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Post Post #3248 (isolation #103) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:52 pm

Post by Krazy »

Yes, but scum already had one redirection ability, and town has multiple NIs. It's not unlikely scum has some additional ability that we are unaware of. If guac is the strongest lead, then we should just lynch it.

I reread the first 60 pages so far and realized Taly's reads were the thing I had least accounted for in my previous analysis. I am actually still working through my reread but looking over Taly's PoV on the worst was enough to make me consider changing my vote until I finished my reread.
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Post Post #3251 (isolation #104) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:02 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3088, DeasVail wrote:I’m a loved fruit vendor.
[stuff]
The loved part is that it takes one extra vote to lynch me if it’s not LYLo/MYLO which I think is not compatible with a scum role??
Sho what do you think about the loved modifier on DV?
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Post Post #3261 (isolation #105) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 6:50 pm

Post by Krazy »

Pun, Sho made an interesting point. Can you explain how scum would choose to rate Vax 0, thus increasing chances that Esp gets nightkilled by Dunn n1 by 15%? Like, you're thinking that scum create the scenario where Dunn can nightkill Esp just for the value in distancing?
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Post Post #3270 (isolation #106) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:11 pm

Post by Krazy »

So, just to be clear, you find it more likely that FA and Nahdia both rated their ally as a 10 than it is that they distanced themselves from Espeonage by not voting Espeonage himself, but rather by ensuring he loses the bet?

Also, and this is an important point--think about the 0 point Vax argument very carefully. What does that require the scum to know? That requires the scum to know that Espeonage and Dunn are both real and telling the truth on Day 1. Remember--Punreader certainly lied about his claim on day 1. If you are scum, do you believe the claims of two members of the town in a large theme game?

The only way scum know the bet is even real is if Espeonage is scum and tell them it's real. For all scum know otherwise, Dunn and Espeonage are two masons. It only even looks like it would have to be a bus in retrospect because we know NOW that Dunn's claim is real. Think about that. Really think about that.

You are giving Espeonage a HARD PASS based on the assumption that scum 100% believed two day 1 claims.

How's that for flawed reasoning?

At the same time, you're assuming that a scum team that spent the entire last day cross-bussing BOTH rated a member of their scum team a 10.

If you are a scum team, do you rate Chara a 10 when there are as many townreads on him as there are? What value does that gain you?

Your current line of reasoning means Fire Assassin rated basically his whole scum team as 10s. Like holy shit, that's a pretty bold assumption for a team that has played the way they have this game.
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Post Post #3271 (isolation #107) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:16 pm

Post by Krazy »

This townread of Espeonage is totally ignoring his play this game and is based on a single extremely tenuous piece of evidence. His roleclaim is fake. His play is not town. He is scum.

Scum played day 1 on the assumption that Espeonage was the most likely to be eliminated during the ranking stage and then proceeded to spend the rest of the game hard bussing him to have a strong endgame. Scum WANTED a flip on scum espeonage because this game has NI towns, vigs, and cops. They had to hard bus. Fire Assassin legitimately wanted to lynch Espeonage because that is HOW HE DOES NOT GET VIGGED. Why else do you think he bussed C.Shep?!

Vote Espeonage


You really need to re-evaluate this slot.
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Post Post #3274 (isolation #108) » Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:30 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3272, DeasVail wrote: Also, I did consider the 10s from FA as well, but it really just boils down to WIFOM, which doesn't hold MUCH strength considering the reasons to see everyone as town here. This stuff DOES make me hesitant, but I also feel like I have more reason to feel hesitant lynching Espe than I have reason to feel hesitant lynching you.

Right, but you literally just said Esp would be higher but you are giving him a hard pass because of WIFOM BULLSHIT.

Read the slot. Evaluate the slot. And when you do, vote the slot.
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Post Post #3275 (isolation #109) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:28 am

Post by Krazy »

You know what else

Look at everyone in this thread going into this game day.

Literally everyone was lost and confused. The worst, you, me, and shoshon have been flipping reads on and off. Dv has no idea. Guac has no idea. Vax has no idea.

Pun has a really strong idea, but pun is like on some other planet. Whatever.

Only esp comes in and is comfortable voting me and calling it a day. No second guessing. No analysis. No puzzling over what all these flips mean

Esp cant fake being confused and he cant fake second guessing because the setup is so confusing he doesnt know how to get into detail without slipping.

His reads are fake. His certainty is fake. His role is fake. His lack of confusion is unbelievable in that I literally see no explanation other than that he is scum.
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Post Post #3304 (isolation #110) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Krazy »

You can say im wrong on esp but case on me is highly implausible.

I was not getting shit for sitting on vax. If you think I use my ability to gain dvs vote and my scumteam doesnt lynch shoshin yesterday... you must think Im way confident in my ability to endgame.

According to your theory I:
Join the game
Sit on a vanity wagon
Theres no lynch
And then spend the entire next day forcing a lynch on a bus target
On the confidence of my ability to endgame as scum

Like im flattered, but you have clearly never played a game with me as scum. This is not something krazy does.

You can say its super implausible that esp is scum. Fine. This is a confusing setup and a confusing situation. But id also say that FA faking a guilty on esp is also highly suspicious. Why would scum go 1 for 1 on a vt? That doesnt make any fucking sense either.

You can say I havent played with esp, but maybe thats a good thing. Im not relying on him having a shitty town meta. Im just looking at my townblock, doing poe, and seeing who us even possible. Right now esp still seems more possible to me than anyone else and him being scum just explains a looot of this game.

Keep thinking about it. The lightbulb will come. This is the piece of the puzzle you have been missing.
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Post Post #3321 (isolation #111) » Wed Aug 08, 2018 7:42 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3304, Krazy wrote: Keep thinking about it. The lightbulb will come. This is the piece of the puzzle you have been missing.
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Post Post #3335 (isolation #112) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 8:42 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3325, Espeonage wrote:Hmm ok 8 alive. Most likely scenario is 5/2/1 if pun is sk.

Say scum gets lynched 5/1/1, say two town die which would make sense.

3/1/1 scum gets lynched, town dies to sk. 2/1 and that's a dead sk in lylo.

If town gets lynched it's 4/2/1, sk can shoot town 2/2/1 which is kingmaker, either sk gets lynched and scum win, or town gets lynched and either scum win or it goes to 3 player kingmaker or some shit. Or scum gets lynched 2/1/1 and there's a few permutations for how that plays out but town isn't winning.

Basically thinking about it, if you believe there's an sk, they have a vested interest in lynching town.
This is a pretty good explanation of why SK!Pun would want to lynch scum today. SK!Pun does not want to go into 2/2/1 kingmaker because he likely loses based on the uncertainty of a closed setup. Scum argues "oh, well with an SK there's probably only one maf left, so it's safer to lynch the SK" or some bs like that. They only need one vote at that point to win. SK!Pun has much better chances in 3/1/1 than he does in 2/2/1, because at that point there's two players who basically 100% know his alignment and are both actively working against him, rather than 3 people who are lost in a confusing clusterfuck of a setup.

If Pun is SK, he wants to lynch scum today. This is a pretty weak case of discrediting, and it does nothing to indicate who you think is scum, why, or what makes you town outside of a) your fakeclaim, and b) the cross-bus with FA, which the cross-bus is the best explanation of why it took so long to lynch C.Shep. You sit on Fire Assassin and never have to contribute to a lynch on C.Shep while still trying to look towny as a result, because your bus target flips scum. It also explains why FA fakes a cop guilty on you, because YOU FLIP SCUM and then he's confirmed cop. This is a setup that highly incentivizes cross-bussing due to the nature of the ranking phase eliminations and the one-shot vig targets, so heavy distancing from the scum team in the ranking phase and cross-bussing later on would all make sense.
In post 984, Fire Assassin wrote:I have a cop guilty on Espeonage.
Fire Assassin
does not write this post if Espeonage is town.
The only explanation for this cop guilty is ESPEONAGE BEING GUILTY. Fire Assassin wanted to be a CONFIRMED COP, because that was his strongest ENDGAME.

Like, I know this is odd, but I actually just reread a game that was EXACTLY like this. Scum cross-bus because they NEED TOWN PROTECTIVES to protect them from an SK. So they HEAVY COMMIT TO EARLY GAME CROSS-BUSSING. They cop guilty one of their own so that they can ENDGAME VS THE SK while drawing TOWN PROTECTIVES.

ESPEONAGE IS SCUM.
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Post Post #3340 (isolation #113) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:16 am

Post by Krazy »

Were those large theme games Sho, with a significantly higher number of power roles?

Is your meta assessment of fire that he is a weak player that would accept a 1 for 1 on day 2?

Espeonage more than anyone else I feel like is lying about his role.

Guac and NoName I never got a strong read on, which in a town that looks towny, seems scummy by comparison. I'm not sure what to do with the denied action on the worst.

I do somehow feel like it's significant that the worst and Taly were targeted by guac, that the worst claims being targeted again, and that guac denies it. I kinda wonder about what abilities scum have that might involve duplicating the effects on Taly the night he was killed. But I don't know with certainty that guac ends up being implicated as a result.

My uncertainty on guac makes me look at slots that seem genuinely scummy in and of themselves, and that leaves me primarily with Espeonage, who I do believe is the scummiest person in the room by any metric.

-Activity
-Arguments
-Reads
-Role
-Associations

Everything points to Espeonage for me. He hard lurks except when called out. His reads seem fake and uninterested in the game state. His role seems fake. I can see why scum would bus him. The ranking phase votes seem to require scum 100% believing his roleclaim is real, which they would only do if they know it is real. Everything in this game makes a lot more sense if Espeonage is scum.

That guac is voting him makes me unsure who Espeonage's buddy is, but Espeonage himself is definitely scum.
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Post Post #3344 (isolation #114) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:38 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3341, Shoshin wrote:Espe's role isn't fake... Dunn had the same role...

If you want to make a case on the worst I am open to your arguments.

But no, Espe did not have the same role as Dunn. Dunn had a hood or something. So if Esp won the bet, he could vanillaize him. Remove the hood.

If Dunn wins the bet, and Vanillaizes Esp... nothing happens. He is already VT.

The entire bet mechanic then has one of its main outcomes being... do nothing?

For a setup that spent months in QA?

No fucking way.

The bet was real. But there is no way there's NOTHING else to his role. Since he claims there is, I call bullshit. He is lying.
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Post Post #3347 (isolation #115) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 10:44 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3345, the worst wrote:Krazy can you talk to me for a sec? what the fuck do either Espe or Fire gain from this exchange if it's a crossbus? it just feels too messy to be like an actual plan which two people planned.

- your suggestion that his claim is bullshit doesn't feel considered in more than two dimensions bro. he's claimed Dunn's role sans the neighbour thing. if he was scum with Dunn's role + x ability why would he not just claim Dunn's role + an ability? like this would just be pants on head as either alignment. I'd fucking bet you if we flip Espe, his role flips as Dunn's role without the extra ability.

- I know the mechanics thing is kinda whatever but suggesting the betters are t/s and the bettees are t/s is kinda..... eh. I'd believe t/t + s/s before I'd believe that. going t/s + t/s basically forces scum to play a particular style, which is grossly unfun. having a mafia role who is like, forced to bus a particular team mate? I personally hate bussing and would instantly replace out. Can't see a game which was in the review process so long being approved with a role which is just blatantly unfun.
Interesting points about the unfun potential. It's worth thinking about. So right now are you saying Sho is more likely than Esp?

Esp and Fire gain the confidence of the town and likely protective shots. If either flips scum, it gives them open range on the rest of the town. Are you seriously asking me to explain the appeal of a cross-bus? It's not rocket science.
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Post Post #3363 (isolation #116) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:17 am

Post by Krazy »

Honestly I'm starting to think Shoshin is either playing the worst or the worst is playing Shoshin but I'm not sure which is which at the moment.

You two need to take a step back and stop playing around your shitty previous game as the sole basis of meta. Unless you both are going to agree 100% it's DV+guac. In which case you need to start explaining why you reach that conclusion.
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Post Post #3366 (isolation #117) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:47 am

Post by Krazy »

So I did start this day with the assumption it was best to find the scum who killed dunn.

And none of you... NONE OF YOU FUCKS POINTED OUT THE OBVIOUS

Fire killed dunn.

So yeah effectively my roleblock on dv did nothing for helping us find scum today.

I did previously rule out the worst + dv as a scum team.

The other problem I have with dv being scum is that he was on cshep for two days. Thats a lot of commitment to that bus.

Especially when he had my vote and could have lynched sho instead.

Like you can say esp is unlikely because esp was nearly lynched by fa, but then you are ignoring the ACTUAL LYNCH of cshep when it comes to dv.
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Post Post #3368 (isolation #118) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:50 am

Post by Krazy »

Considering there was a no lynch the previous day?

More than zero. More than a not-actual-lynch between fa and esp thats for sure.
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Post Post #3370 (isolation #119) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:58 am

Post by Krazy »

Also, I want to say every time I have seen someone claim their role is a "red herring" in a large theme it has flipped scum. This vanillaize shit really bothers me.
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Post Post #3373 (isolation #120) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:30 pm

Post by Krazy »

The double 0 on vax is what bothers me even more. If im in a large theme, I do not believe the d1 claims. Pun was lying. That they believe it and act accordingly makes it seem like they know it is real, which is only possible if esp is scum. The 0s point to esp scum not to esp town.
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Post Post #3374 (isolation #121) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:31 pm

Post by Krazy »

Like when was the last time you saw a bunch of d1 claims and were like yep 100% believe all that shit, better adjust my votes
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Post Post #3375 (isolation #122) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:32 pm

Post by Krazy »

Like did you adjust your votes based on puns claim?
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Post Post #3380 (isolation #123) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:22 pm

Post by Krazy »

I won't rule out the possibility that I am conf biasing, although I think we are looking at this point from different presuppositions about scum behavior. I am assuming a strategy of risk mitigation whereas you are assuming a strategy of opportunism and aggression. While you may disagree I think your disagreement hinges more on scum interpretations of day 1 claims. I think it is interesting that you totally believed the bet and not mason shenanigans or something else. That says a lot about how you are approaching this game.

The worst, did you believe the bet was as it was said to be?
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Post Post #3383 (isolation #124) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:38 pm

Post by Krazy »

lol I'm not defending guac, I'm trying to get a read on your slot, and this sense that you generally believe claims from the town is really interesting. I kinda don't even care about the Esp argument right now, I need to mull over that for a bit.

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Post Post #3384 (isolation #125) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Krazy »

Sho why did you give Dunn a 6 and Esp a 3?
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Post Post #3388 (isolation #126) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:07 pm

Post by Krazy »

I think it's safe to say that Guac's slot is objectively hard to read.

Mostly what you said pinged me because I am still alive while claiming in twilight that I was commuting DV. So you kind of explained:
a) why you, as scum, would direct FA and Shep to 0 Vax
b) why you, as scum, would kill Dunn over me last night
c) why you, as scum, would kill Dunn over DV last night

I think I get what Dunn meant by a lot of what you say pinging him. For someone who mostly seems very towny you say a lot of shit that makes sense from scum POV.

BTW, you had no passives or second abilities? The other ranking townie had a passive right? So you have the most vanilla role in the entire game?
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Post Post #3389 (isolation #127) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:09 pm

Post by Krazy »

For someone who knows there are two ranking townies in the game, you seem to think the scum would be very confident in their ability to manipulate the bet
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Post Post #3396 (isolation #128) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:54 pm

Post by Krazy »

vote the worst


Compelling points for why I am wrong on esp, shoshin is plausibly the one being played, the main problem being that we need other people on board.

I think shoshin even explained why he is scum early in the dayphase before he started hard buddying her.

PoE and VCA both say the worst has a solid chance to flip scum. Hopefully I don't make the wagon uncool by being on board.
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Post Post #3414 (isolation #129) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:21 pm

Post by Krazy »

3 + 3 = 6

QUICK MATHS

Votes needed to lynch yesterday = 6

Shoshin wagon = 3 votes

A theoretical scum team including Krazy/DV, with Fire off the Shoshin wagon, means Krazy+DV+Fire can lynch Shoshin instead of a Shepherd bus.

NOW

LETS BREAK IT DOWN

Image

Shoshin logic:
Esp is town because scum would not do a bus that doesn't win them the game

GOOD LOGIC, A+, CONVINCING

KRAZY WRONG FOR MOST OF DAY, I ADMIT

But once you get that, Shoshin, YOU SOLVED THE GAME

Image

Shoshin is town. Vax is town. Pun is whatever the fuck pun is. Esp is TOWN (this part is important). DV is town. Krazy is town.

ALL OF THAT IS BASICALLY FUCKING LOCKED, by the fact, and hear me out on this, THAT YOU ARE FUCKING ALIVE AND NOT LYNCHED YESTERDAY

Esp being town was the question, FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW. FROM YOUR POINT OF VIEW, if Esp is town, Krazy and DV are also LOCK TOWN
From my point of view, ESP and YOU being town is the question

IF ESP IS TOWN, THE WORST IS SCUM

Shoshin, YOU SOLVED THE GAME

SPOILER ALERT: It is the worst + guac

Vax is right, we can lynch either fucking one, there's really nothing interesting left to say

YOU DID IT

VAX DID IT

EVERYONE DID IT

WE ALL WIN

I literally don't care which of the two we lynch anymore. All I needed was an explanation of why Esp was lock town, and you convinced me.

Vote Guac

Vote the worst


One, the other, it doesn't fucking matter.

This game is solved.

We lynch the worst, BAM

We lynch guac, BAM

We lynch PUN if the game is still going, BAM

GG
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Post Post #3416 (isolation #130) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:24 pm

Post by Krazy »

You wanna lynch Guac first? I'm fucking down. Just talk to Vax.
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Post Post #3418 (isolation #131) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:26 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3415, the worst wrote:Krazy after we lynch you and win the game can I please frame that post? hoooolyfuck I love it
Lynching me does seem to be the wincon you have been working toward over the course of this day, but, and this is important, it is YOUR wincon, not town's
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Post Post #3420 (isolation #132) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:34 pm

Post by Krazy »

lol, the worst, do you not get that if you are wrong, the ONLY PLAUSIBLE TEAM is fucking Shoshin+Guac? Like, you get, from YOUR POINT OF VIEW, the ONLY CONCEIVABLE FUCKING TEAM, is Shoshin+Guac? You get that, right? You do understand maths?

I do NOT understand why the fuck you have spent all day trying to get shoshin off you when, if you are town, the ONLY FUCKING EXPLANATION FOR ANYTHING is that Shoshin is scum.

Like, if you are town, you need to go reread fucking Punreader and his explanation for shy Shoshin is scum. Because THAT is YOUR ONLY CONCEIVABLE OUT

There is NO FUCKING WAY scum busses on the day they use a DOUBLE VOTE ABILITY

ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR FUCKING MIND? LOL

That you even fucking bothered to vote me shows the only following possibilities:
a) you're a dumbass that can't do math
b) you're scum that is desperate as fuck

Take your fucking pick dude
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Post Post #3422 (isolation #133) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:38 pm

Post by Krazy »

the worst logic: Espeonage is lock town, because scum would not do a stupid fucking bus that doesn't win them the game

The worst point of view:
Espeonage is lock town. Krazy/DV are lock town (because bussing C.Shep yesterday would be throwing the game--this is YOUR LOGIC for why ESP is town YOUR LOGIC. NOT MINE.). Vax is lock town. Pun is whatever the fuck pun is. QED, only logical point of view from the worst: Shoshin+Guac scumteam.

You yourself have spent all day explaining why Espeonage is lock town. In doing so, you have explained WHY ME and DV are BOTH LOCK TOWN.

THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE VOTE FOR YOU TODAY IS EITHER SHOSHIN OR GUAC

Do you not get that?

I am being a dick, because if you are TOWN, you ARE GAME THROWING
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Post Post #3425 (isolation #134) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:42 pm

Post by Krazy »

Then fucking vote him. Vax is assuming you are scum because you are voting people THAT CANNOT BE FUCKING SCUM

Your vote on DV is bad

Your vote on me is bad

If you get lynched, and you are town, it is totally, 100%, on you
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Post Post #3428 (isolation #135) » Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:49 pm

Post by Krazy »

Actually, Sho's logic is significantly worse than yours, the worst. I apologize for rage capsing.

But you are not presenting the plausible scenario from your point of view. For me or DV to be scum, you would have to be pairing us with Sho. But this is important--Sho HAS to be scum, for you to even consider me or DV as a possibility.

For you the question is not whether Sho is scum, the question for Town!TheWorst is who is Sho's partner.

Town!TheWorst worries about a DV+Sho scum team in addition to a Sho+Guac scumteam. (as well as Krazy+Sho scumteam)

I did not have to deal with that scenario since from Sho's POV she knows she is town.

This game actually is significantly more complicated for a town!theworst than a town!sho because the worst was not at l-3 yesterday.
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Post Post #3444 (isolation #136) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:58 am

Post by Krazy »

My comments last night were mostly focused on a FYPOV for Shoshin, extrapolating on The Theory of Espeonage.

Shoshin's Theory of Espeonage:
When evaluating scum behavior, you must consider both the opportunity cost and the loss-risk of an action.

So, in the case of scum rankings for vaxkiller with the possibility of Espeonage as a scumbuddy, we need to look at the opportunity cost (losing Dunn as a free nightkill) and the loss-risk.
While tanking Vax's score with Esp as a scum buddy might work as buddying, scum would still not do this, because the opportunity cost (losing Dunn as a free nightkill) would be too high.

This is a solid metric, but what I have not understood throughout any part of this day, is why Shoshin applies the Theory of Espeonage to that slot but not to any other part of the game.

We can very easily apply the Theory of Espeonage to the Day 4 Vote

In the Day 4 Vote, there is the apparent value in a bus and distancing, but there is also the missed lynch on Shoshin.
In considering Day 4 vote, for Krazy or DV to be scum, and for Shoshin to be town, you would have to accept:
-That scum would take the value of a bus distancing over a guaranteed kill on a night immune townie
-That scum would take the value of a bus over a denied town lynch on scum
-That scum would take a voluntary loss to their numbers on the same game day that they know one of their team is going to be vigged

If you are even willing to entertain the notion that Espeonage is likely town because of the ranking votes on Vaxkiller, it becomes demonstrably absurd to consider that scum would give up a guaranteed lynch on a night immune townie.
Opportunity cost -- the costs are too high.

Again, this does not make my slot lock town to other people, unless you a) accept Espeonage is town, and b) know that Shoshin is town. If you do not maintain either of those positions, then you can entertain a suspicion of my slot.

However, if you believe my slot is scum, then your optimal play would be to lynch Shoshin, because while either me or DV could be scum, Shoshin definitely has to be scum for her not to get lynched yesterday.

Whether it was lylo or mylo is totally irrelevant. This is a two body swing--a lynch kill on Shepherd AND a denied kill on Shoshin.
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Post Post #3446 (isolation #137) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:22 am

Post by Krazy »

At this point, simply looking at VCA, you can at this point see clearly why Fire Assassin even put C.Shep to L-1. He believed C.Shep was actually going to finally go down, and he wanted there to be uncertainty as to whether Espeonage was or was not part of the scum team. If he does not bus, he risks the hammer on C.Shep coming from Vax + Espeonage, which makes the entire scum team off the wagon. At that point, you just look at the votes and you can see clearly that it is the worst + guac.

This is all assuming of course that you do not think Pun is actually scum and shot his own buddy. But I rule this out more because I find it unlikely that the scum have 2 night kills each night rather than 1, rather than because of anything from pun's play or reasoning.

I think Espeonage is actually right as well. I was wrong about Punreader. He really does want to lynch town today, and through VCA he is totally confident the worst + guac is the obvious scum team, but is trying to come up with convoluted reasons that we should lynch town today instead.

This game is actually much more simple than it seems. If you look at VCA, you simply say, scum is probably among Espeonage, the worst, and guac. If you can rule out Espeonage, it's the worst and guac. The game basically solves itself.

This explains why guac denies connecting the worst and pun, because they need distancing. There is no other secret mechanic. Guac just lied to distance himself from the worst.

This explains why Pun is trying to get a lynch on Sho or Esp.

I feel good about this.

Sho you can keep going around in circles if you want.
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Post Post #3450 (isolation #138) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:42 am

Post by Krazy »

This also explains why pun won't shoot guac by the way. If we lynch the worst, and he promises to shoot guac, then we fully eliminate the scum team and then he gets lynched the next day lol

You can answer your own questions from here Sho
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Post Post #3454 (isolation #139) » Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:16 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3452, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Krazy
Just to be totally clear, you currently find it more plausible that:
a) scum have a confirmed two-shot vote manipulator and that
b) scum used vote manipulation to force a bus
c) scum used vote manipulation to force a bus OVER a lynch on NI town

rather than that

a) the worst is scum
b) he didn't actually want to lynch C.Shep, because C.Shep is on his team
c) absolutely nothing remarkable happened yesterday in terms of how scum play and there were no unusual night actions

Just making sure we're clear on which scenarios you find to be plausible.
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Post Post #3484 (isolation #140) » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:15 am

Post by Krazy »

If I understood Pun, he shoots or no shoots depending on the color of the flip. He is just adamant about what he thinks will flip what.
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Post Post #3491 (isolation #141) » Sat Aug 11, 2018 7:51 pm

Post by Krazy »

Would like to hear your thoughts on the worst
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Post Post #3503 (isolation #142) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:06 am

Post by Krazy »

Atm thinking sho v dv is tvt and feeling good about the worst+guac tbh
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Post Post #3506 (isolation #143) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:29 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3504, Shoshin wrote:You think scum gave their partner two 0s?

the worst did not get 2 0s fam.

At this point I think I'm more likely to be wrong on guac than the worst. Hence my current vote location.

This wagon is giving me the exact same vibes as C.Shep wagon.
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Post Post #3509 (isolation #144) » Sun Aug 12, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by Krazy »

Yep, you could be right. If you prioritize rankings over all else, DV looks better as a buddy for the worst.

I can see a the worst + DV scum team. It's not impossible. I give you that.

But that does not make DV a better lynch for today.

I mean, Sho, FMPOV, the worst has three potential buddies: Guac, DV, and you.
You think tw's a little scummy and want to case DV. You seem likely town based on play.
DV wants to case you but accepts tw's a little scummy. DV seems likely town based on my feeling of the slot during day 4 but I could plausibly be wrong.
Guac thinks tw's a little scummy and wants to stay on Espeonage. The only reason right now to think Guac is town is because of some lowkey bussing during ranking phase.

Literally anyone right now works as his partner. The buddy wants to distance but not bus, the town can find no reason to explain why he's town but want to pursue their own leads. Town do town things.

Which is exactly how things were on day three, except the roles are all switched. Now you are Espeonage, and I'm Dunn, I guess. Kinda. Maybe the analogy doesn't work but it makes sense to me.

No one can explain why the worst is town because he's not. No one is defending because the partner has no value in buddying someone already on their side and the town can't find any evidence because there is none. They just want to finish sorting other players and be the dope carry that found the best scum.

This is what day 4 felt like for me. It's the same vibes. The scumbuddy just wants it to go away but can't make it.
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Post Post #3519 (isolation #145) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:42 am

Post by Krazy »

Together!

Image
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Post Post #3531 (isolation #146) » Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:55 pm

Post by Krazy »

Pun I'm not sure I understand your logic that the worst is town. I can at this point follow the reasons you suspect Sho. I think it's reasonable to suspect Sho if you are ignoring her playstyle.

But why is the worst town? I don't understand.

I also feel like I'm with you on some points for Espeonage, but I feel like it doesn't work overall. Sure, if it was just a matter of ranking phase lowkey bussing, I'd see Vax getting 0'd out. But I feel like the larger point was made that if they ensure Vax get's 0'd out then there's no way for them to get a free nightkill on Dunn. I mean, maybe scum bus, maybe they don't bus, but would they really value the bus over a free nightkill?

I feel like the argument that Espeonage is not basically locktown based on the ranking phase votes from FA and Shep/Nah is pretty suspect.

And if you accept that guac is not certainly scum, then why are you confident that the worst (FYPOV) is not Sho's scumbuddy (who you seem certain on?)
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Post Post #3534 (isolation #147) » Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:33 am

Post by Krazy »

In post 3532, Shoshin wrote:
In post 3526, the worst wrote:Welcome back! Finally might have someone who facepalms as hard at this gamestate as I do.
I suggest you work on convincing Pun to lynch DV, as well as convincing Pun that I'm town, because otherwise you're probably getting lynched today, and without you around, Pun's going to mislynch me tomorrow.
I thought tw was one of your top fos? Now he's locktown?
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Post Post #3541 (isolation #148) » Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:56 pm

Post by Krazy »

Scum Ratings

Fire Assassin:
Spoiler:
In post 840, Fire Assassin wrote:ehBrawlGuy - 8
Taly - 2
Punreader - 3
MariaR - 9
DeasVail - 5
Espeonage - 0
Dunnstral - 4
Nahdia - 10
the worst - 7
Pine - 4
Shoshin - 6
Fire Assassin - 10
Lovebird - 1
Chara - 10
Srceenplay - 6
Vaxkiller - 0
PenguinPower - 4
NicoRobin - 0


Nahdia/C.Shep
Spoiler:
In post 838, Nahdia wrote:Nahdia - 10
Chara - 10
Punreader - 10
Fire Assassin - 9
PenguinPower - 8
the worst - 7
Espeonage - 6
Shoshin - 6
Taly - 5
DeasVail - 5
TehBrawlGuy - 4
Pine - 4
MariaR - 3
Dunnstral - 2
Lovebird - 1
Srceenplay - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0


Living Player Ratings

The Worst:
Spoiler:
In post 842, the worst wrote:OK w/e
10 - the worst
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - Espeonage
8 - MariaR
7 - Nahdia
6 - TehBrawlGuy
6 - DeasVail
5 - Punreader
5 - PenguinPower
4 - Vaxkiller
4 - Pine
3 - Shoshin
2 - Dunnstral
1 - Fire Assassin
0 - Srceenplay
0 - ReubenWasFine
0 - NicoRobin


Shoshin:
Spoiler:
In post 942, Shoshin wrote:Here's my rankings:

10 - myself
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - the worst
8 - TBG
7 - Screen
6 - DV
6 - Dunn
5 - Pun
5 - Vax
4 - Nico
4 - Nahdia
3 - Espeonage
2 - Fire
1 - Pine
0 - Lovebird
0 - Penguin
0 - MariaR


ManWithNoName/Guac
Spoiler:
In post 1454, ManWithNoName wrote:10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP


Punreader
Spoiler:
In post 870, Punreader wrote:Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (10)
Dunnstral (9)
ActionDan/Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
ReubenWasFine/Lovebird (2)
Srceenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
PenguinPower (0)
Pine/TwoInAMillion (0)

I shot Pine.


Chara/Krazy
Spoiler:
In post 888, Chara wrote:Chara
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Nahdia
Punreader
the worst
Shoshin
MariaR
Dunnstral
DeasVail
Espeonage
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
Vaxkiller
Pine
Srceenplay

i'm just upset about this list now with the night results. :<


DeasVail
Spoiler:
In post 846, DeasVail wrote:10 - Taly
10 - Punreader
10 - DeasVail
9 - the worst
8 - Shoshin
7 - Screenplay
6 - Chara
6 - Vaxkiller
5 - Nahdia
5 - Fire Assassin
4 - Pine
4 - Dunnstral
3 - TehBrawlGuy
2 - Espeonage
1 - Lovebird
0 - NicoRobin
0 - MariaR
0 - PenguinPower

But I'm not really happy with these as a reflection of my reads, and I regret having Lovebird and NicoRobin so low, but obviously that's affected by having the information that they are town so idk.

Anyway, I want rankings from everyone and ideally a bit of insight into your thought process behind the rankings.

From re-reading overnight, I'm back to being suspicious of the worst. MariaR remains a pretty big suspect for me, along with Espeonage. I also don't reallllly know what to think of PenguinPower but my suspicion was scum.


Espeonage
Spoiler:
In post 849, Espeonage wrote:10 - Myself
10 - Vaxkiller
10 - Dunnstral
9 - TehBrawlGuy
8 - Taly
7 - the worst
6 - Deas Veil
6 - Penguinpower
5 - MariaR
5 - Chara
4 - punreader
4 - Nahdia
3 - Shoshin
2 - Srceenplay
1 - Lovebird
0 - Nico Robin
0 - Pine
0 - Fire Assassin


Vax
Spoiler:
In post 891, Vaxkiller wrote:Vaxkiller
Pine
Nahdia
Fire Assassin
PenguinPower
Punreader
Srceenplay
DeasVail
the worst
Lovebird
Espeonage
Shoshin
Chara
Dunnstral
NicoRobin
MariaR
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
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Post Post #3543 (isolation #149) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:35 am

Post by Krazy »

Just went to sleep for 9 hours and woke up to no new posts but if I miss a daily post I get modkilled reeeeeeeeeeeeee
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Post Post #3558 (isolation #150) » Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:11 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3547, Espeonage wrote:Hi all, I've been prodded, I should have some time tonight.
Good talk, please vote the worst before this incredibly dull two week clock actually runs out
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Post Post #3577 (isolation #151) » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:24 am

Post by Krazy »

A named visiting role in a game with multiple role that have night action modification (delay, combine, or redirect). Since the fruit vendor can simply ask who received the cat it could have acted as a quasi-investigative role in the event of an early game mass-claim.
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Post Post #3582 (isolation #152) » Fri Aug 17, 2018 1:13 am

Post by Krazy »

I am going to sleep now, and I won't be waking up before timer is out.

So basically we would need Espeonage to hammer. Guac was online and didn't. Not sure I can say that definitely makes him the worst's buddy. But if this ends up defaulting to a no lynch after a two week day cycle, it's safe to say I'm /outing as soon as the night phase begins. That's not meant to be an ultimatum for Espeonage, since I'm not even sure he's going to log in to see it.

Anyway, I hate to inflict 144 pages of this thread to some poor replace-in. I'm not sure if this game is even winnable. I know Errant had like, proposed a draw at one point. I wouldn't be opposed to that since apparently even two weeks isn't enough time to actually get this town to vote someone.

On the assumption this game isn't just over after this night cycle... haven't done the math out there all the way. Depends on if Pun shoots and if he does shoot whether guac is scum. I mean it seems like he should be at this point. But who knows.

Anyway here's necessary info for a replace in.

Roleclaims for easy reference. (sorry about including all the nonsense with the worst but it's a pretty big part of why I was voting him so I include it for reference)

Spoiler:
Shoshin claims bulletproof:
In post 2653, Shoshin wrote:Maybe I didn't die because of role, not sure. I'm a ranking immune townie, which I thought meant I couldn't die from rankings but apparently it might extend to all roles based on rankings.
Guacamole claims connector who did not target the worst/pun last night, even though the worst was connected to Punreader:
In post 3112, guacamole wrote:So the funny thing is, I didn't target anyone last night.

Someone else has a similar role?
TW and punreader have some other kind of communication?
punreader was testing me and TW decided to go along?
punreader and TW are both lying?
In post 3138, guacamole wrote:N3 I targeted punreader and Maria. If that doesn't take effect until D4 and the messages pass N4, then the N3 targeting of Maria was redirected onto TW.
In post 3153, guacamole wrote:Confirm that N2 MWNN submitted Pun & Dunn.
In post 1468, ManWithNoName wrote:The people connected by Screenplay were the worst and Taly.
Vax claims one-shot vig who tried to kill C.Shep and C.Shep redirected:
In post 2040, Vaxkiller wrote:@Commander

Why? After calming down and reading the situation his actions made sense. Claiming a fake BP makes sense as town. So I thinks Puns town now.

Also his vig was very conditional. Mine less so. I'm a novice vig.
In post 2008, Vaxkiller wrote:OK, so im town, I shot commander last night and hes still alive.... wtf
Punreader basically claiming SK:
In post 665, Punreader wrote:I have content to respond to, which I will in circa 12 hours.
DO NOT END THE DAY BEFORE I CAN EXPLAIN WHY I AM DOING THIS AND GIVE RESPONSES TO THE RESPONSES TO MY READS.

Claim: Conditional Bulletproof/Conditional Vigilante; the conditions are inverses.

I actually lied.
I DO have a conditional bulletproof, but it only protects me from those who are ranked HIGHER; I was aiming for an ungated Vig, with the illusion of being bp.

To explain, I can kill people ranked lower than I am, but they can kill me; I can't kill people ranked higher than me, but they can't kill me.

This is why PenguinPower is literally a punclaim.

Details for everything in 12 hours.
DeasVail claims fruit (cat) vendor:
In post 3088, DeasVail wrote:Sure.

I’m a loved fruit vendor.

The cat thing is just a fruit vendor role. It doesn’t do anything else. I generally targeted people whose alignment I was very unsure of/people I felt I could interact with as a way of possibly using it to assist in reading how people reacted to the cat nuzzling. At first I thought Shepard might be town because of how they openly suspected me despite knowing that I sent them a cat (I would have expected scum to buddy with me more in that circumstance) but obviously this didn’t hold up for very long.

Targeted Shoshin N2, Krazy N3, the worst N4. Assumed that he’d received the cat when he posted a meow at daystart but it seems not?

The loved part is that it takes one extra vote to lynch me if it’s not LYLo/MYLO which I think is not compatible with a scum role??
My claim:
In post 3083, Krazy wrote:The worst is scum, so this is fine.

I am a two-shot befriender, which is a stupid fucking name for a very swingy and hard to play role. I found it very stressful and did not like replacing in to this slot tbh.

It has three mechanics.
1 -- It combines your vote with someone else the next day
2 -- It denies BOTH of your next night actions
3 -- It makes all night actions the next night target both of you

When I shot DV, I did so on the hope that if he was scum I would A) prevent a badhammer in near-lylo, and b) prevent a nightkill on myself, since he would know he would be taking me down with him.

Chara apparently shot Maria, which he thought was null at the time I guess, which seems incredibly risky since he both blocked one of her joat shots and also risked generating a free scum double kill. But whatever, wasn't my choice.

I was VERY INSISTENT that the worst claim first, since if he claimed targeting me OR DV last night, that would have effectively CONFIRMED BOTH OF OUR ROLES. I NEVER mentioned the third consequence of my night action so there is no way he could have anticipated this and it would have been a very hard confirmation.

When I started thinking DV might be town, this is also why I was worried I gamethrew by targeting him when I did, which is why I also said I was commuting him, to hopefully avoid a free scum double kill.

In terms of FLAVOR, which I thought the worst was saying he cops, I also noticed that the image used did not match the avatar of the player it is based on, which I thought would be another way to hard confirm the worst if he had targeted me. (It's some pokemon shit, but the avatar of the player it's based on is that same pokemon shit but with glasses)

Summary: The worst's role is unconfirmable horseshit that dies today.
The worst's flavor cop fakeclaim:
In post 2948, the worst wrote:I'm a flavour cop of sorts--I don't get alignment indicative results tho.

Full details following those 3 fullclaims because my claim is actually a bit spicier that I thought it was.
(he is not a flavor cop)

The worst fakeclaim continued:
In post 2999, the worst wrote:I know for a fact at least one person is bullshitting about their role and actions right now.
also got one near full mechanical clear.

so fmpov anyone not willingly giving their full role here is basically claiming scum.
(he did not have proof anyone was bullshitting about their role)

The worst fakeclaim Part 3:
In post 3011, the worst wrote:I haven't fully claimed the nature of my results, and I will not since it almost clears someone else.


pedit: don't even try this bullshit, this is far too on-the-nose
(he could not clear anyone else)

The worst "real" claim:
In post 3042, the worst wrote:actually I changed my mind lmao
I've claimed privately to both Taly and Punreader it's not like I'm making shit up on the fly

I have results on:-
PenguinPower
Dunnstral
myself
Punreader


riddle over that
(total unconfirmable garbage)

The worst 'real' claim:
In post 3065, the worst wrote:I haven't asked for flavour claims dude. And where did you claim your role's mechanics?

I'm chevre--I can check players' positions in the scoring, but only whether they are higher or lower than my previous target. you all might have noticed my repeated insistence that we would find out if scum had been fucking with the rankings, and how much work I put into collating information originally.

Penguin < Dunnstral < myself > Punreader

I didn't really realize until Guac paired us up but I'm actually almost certain that my role's existence spews Pun as town.
Other relevant claim information:
In post 2079, MariaR wrote:Vax is my cop inno Shepard you vote me before you vote my inno.
Espeonage claims betting townie and the inverse of Dunn's role as stated here (except without neighborhood)
In post 2817, Errantparabola wrote:
BipolarChemistWelcome, Dunnstral.

You've bet SleepyKrew that Errantparabola will do better than Papa Zito.
You are
BipolarChemist
, the
Betting Townie
.

Image
Alignment: Town
-- You win when all threats to town are dead, and there is at least one member of town alive.

Passive: Avatar Bet
-- You know that [REDACTED] is "SleepyKrew", [REDACTED] is "Papa Zito", and [REDACTED] is "Errantparabola". If Errantparabola is higher-ranked than Papa Zito, you can choose to do one of the following things to SleepyKrew during Night 1 (they will be informed at the beginning of Day 2):
Vanillize
: Remove all of their Active powers.

NK-Immunize
: Make them Nightkill Immune.

Delayed Kill
: Kill them on Night 2.


Passive: Chip Represent!
: (
Man, it feels good to be on top.
) -- You have access to a nightly neighborhood that consists of "BipolarChemist", "Equinox", and "Cheetory6".

5. Dunnstral
(TOWN)

Average:
5.78
Number of 10s:
3
Number of 0s:
0


Ranking Phase Results:
In post 3541, Krazy wrote:
Scum Ratings

Fire Assassin:
Spoiler:
In post 840, Fire Assassin wrote:ehBrawlGuy - 8
Taly - 2
Punreader - 3
MariaR - 9
DeasVail - 5
Espeonage - 0
Dunnstral - 4
Nahdia - 10
the worst - 7
Pine - 4
Shoshin - 6
Fire Assassin - 10
Lovebird - 1
Chara - 10
Srceenplay - 6
Vaxkiller - 0
PenguinPower - 4
NicoRobin - 0


Nahdia/C.Shep
Spoiler:
In post 838, Nahdia wrote:Nahdia - 10
Chara - 10
Punreader - 10
Fire Assassin - 9
PenguinPower - 8
the worst - 7
Espeonage - 6
Shoshin - 6
Taly - 5
DeasVail - 5
TehBrawlGuy - 4
Pine - 4
MariaR - 3
Dunnstral - 2
Lovebird - 1
Srceenplay - 0
Vaxkiller - 0
NicoRobin - 0


Living Player Ratings

The Worst:
Spoiler:
In post 842, the worst wrote:OK w/e
10 - the worst
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - Espeonage
8 - MariaR
7 - Nahdia
6 - TehBrawlGuy
6 - DeasVail
5 - Punreader
5 - PenguinPower
4 - Vaxkiller
4 - Pine
3 - Shoshin
2 - Dunnstral
1 - Fire Assassin
0 - Srceenplay
0 - ReubenWasFine
0 - NicoRobin


Shoshin:
Spoiler:
In post 942, Shoshin wrote:Here's my rankings:

10 - myself
10 - Taly
10 - Chara
9 - the worst
8 - TBG
7 - Screen
6 - DV
6 - Dunn
5 - Pun
5 - Vax
4 - Nico
4 - Nahdia
3 - Espeonage
2 - Fire
1 - Pine
0 - Lovebird
0 - Penguin
0 - MariaR


ManWithNoName/Guac
Spoiler:
In post 1454, ManWithNoName wrote:10. Srceenplay
10. Taly
10. TheBrawlGuy
9. Chara
8. Shoshin
7. The Worst
6. vaxkiller
6. Dunnstral
5. Fire Assassin
5. Nahdia
4. pine
4. pun reader
3. lovebird
2. nico
1. mariar
0. deasvail
0. espe
0. PP


Punreader
Spoiler:
In post 870, Punreader wrote:Punreader (10)
Chara (10)
Taly (10)
Dunnstral (9)
ActionDan/Nahdia (8)
Shoshin (7)
MariaR (6)
Espeonage (6)
the worst (5)
Fire Assassin (5)
DeasVail (4)
Vaxkiller (4)
NicoRobin (3)
ReubenWasFine/Lovebird (2)
Srceenplay (1)
TehBrawlGuy (0)
PenguinPower (0)
Pine/TwoInAMillion (0)

I shot Pine.


Chara/Krazy
Spoiler:
In post 888, Chara wrote:Chara
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Nahdia
Punreader
the worst
Shoshin
MariaR
Dunnstral
DeasVail
Espeonage
Fire Assassin
Lovebird
PenguinPower
NicoRobin
Vaxkiller
Pine
Srceenplay

i'm just upset about this list now with the night results. :<


DeasVail
Spoiler:
In post 846, DeasVail wrote:10 - Taly
10 - Punreader
10 - DeasVail
9 - the worst
8 - Shoshin
7 - Screenplay
6 - Chara
6 - Vaxkiller
5 - Nahdia
5 - Fire Assassin
4 - Pine
4 - Dunnstral
3 - TehBrawlGuy
2 - Espeonage
1 - Lovebird
0 - NicoRobin
0 - MariaR
0 - PenguinPower

But I'm not really happy with these as a reflection of my reads, and I regret having Lovebird and NicoRobin so low, but obviously that's affected by having the information that they are town so idk.

Anyway, I want rankings from everyone and ideally a bit of insight into your thought process behind the rankings.

From re-reading overnight, I'm back to being suspicious of the worst. MariaR remains a pretty big suspect for me, along with Espeonage. I also don't reallllly know what to think of PenguinPower but my suspicion was scum.


Espeonage
Spoiler:
In post 849, Espeonage wrote:10 - Myself
10 - Vaxkiller
10 - Dunnstral
9 - TehBrawlGuy
8 - Taly
7 - the worst
6 - Deas Veil
6 - Penguinpower
5 - MariaR
5 - Chara
4 - punreader
4 - Nahdia
3 - Shoshin
2 - Srceenplay
1 - Lovebird
0 - Nico Robin
0 - Pine
0 - Fire Assassin


Vax
Spoiler:
In post 891, Vaxkiller wrote:Vaxkiller
Pine
Nahdia
Fire Assassin
PenguinPower
Punreader
Srceenplay
DeasVail
the worst
Lovebird
Espeonage
Shoshin
Chara
Dunnstral
NicoRobin
MariaR
Taly
TehBrawlGuy
Summary:
Vax has a cop inno in a setup with only a single one-shot cop for hard confirm, making him likely a true inno
The two dead scum made sure that Espeonage lost the bet. While they might not have thought he would die, it seems unlikely they would want to give up a free kill on Dunn.
DV's fruit vendor ability is cross-confirmed by me and Sho but there's no indication that this hard clears him.
Punreader has confirmed kills on Pine and Fire Assassin

That leaves us with the worst, guacamole, Shoshin. Since guac claimed he did not connect the worst, but the worst claimed he was connected, the current working theory is that guac lied about not connecting the worst.

There's 0 hard evidence that Sho is town but I'm inclined to think she's townyish. At some point this comes down to a straight gamble between Sho, guac, and the worst, and I chose to gamble on the worst, since his flavor cop fakeclaim seemed scummy and the rest of his play isn't very towny to me.

Voting observations:
Spoiler:
In post 2547, Errantparabola wrote:
Votecount 3.10


Commander Shepard
(4): Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller, MariaR, Espeonage
Shoshin
(2): Punreader, the worst
Fire Assassin
(1): guacamole
MariaR
(1): DeasVail
Vaxkiller
(1): Commander Shepard

Not Voting
(3): Chara, Dunnstral, Shoshin

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to achieve a majority.
Deadline in (expired on 2018-07-22 13:08:00)


Looking to replace Chara.
Activity rules will go into effect after the end of this day phase. As for now, no prods will go out until then.
In post 2812, Errantparabola wrote:
Votecount 4.4 - FINAL


Commander Shepard
(6): Dunnstral, Shoshin, Krazy/DeasVail, Fire Assassin, Vaxkiller
Shoshin
(3): Vaxkiller, Commander Shepard, guacamole
Fire Assassin
(1): Punreader

Not Voting
(2): Espeonage, the worst


Obviously you can look at Errant's iso for the full vote counts but these are the most significant. Day 3 ends in no lynch, day 4 ends in scum lynch. The worst is on Sho or not voting at the end of both day phases. Guac is on FA d3 (but alone), and on Sho on d4. DeasVail is on Maria at end of d3 (which is why I shot him and brought him back to C.Shep for d4), but my thoughts on DV during D4 was that he acted in a very similar manner to Maria. He never tested the vote and our vote actually didn't change through the day cycle. So it's not totally clear he even knew how the mechanic work, but if he was scum wouldn't he at least test it? Anyway that was my thought. Both Maria and DV looked at a forced combo vote and were like "well this seems fine" which strikes me as a towny response, particularly considering it resulted in a D4 scum lynch. For this reason I see DV as an unlikely scumbuddy.

Now, there is Punreader's theory that there was a three-way crossbus on Day 3 and Day 4 between all the scum. This strikes me as complete horseshit. I find it totally implausible that scum would not push some sort of lynch on town between the two days, which is why Shoshin seems likely to be town. Punreader sees this as proof Sho is scum... because he thinks C.Shep plays 4D chess... but this furthers my suspicion that Pun is an SK and is just saying random shit.

Here's the case against each main suspect:
The worst fakeclaimed flavor cop and spent the day trying to lynch people who are likely town, and has never voted scum basically.

Guac says he didn't connect the worst and punreader, and that sounds like horseshit, and he was off the scum-lynch wagon yesterday.

There is no mechanical proof Shoshin is town or any way to confirm her role at the moment.

Of those three cases, the case on the worst seems strongest, the case on guac second best, and the case on Shoshin least best.

You can of course add in DV if you think he could not coordinate with Fire Assassin to lynch Sho on d4, or if you think he saw a better win condition in lynching C.Shep I guess... or you can add in Espeonage if you think scum would really choose the bus over the lack of a nightkill on Dunn. But I see both of those as long-shots. And if a one-shot cop on Vax doesn't actually mean he's town then I think this setup was f'd anyway. While I wouldn't put it past Pun to shoot a buddy, I don't think scum have a second nightkill, so he's probably just SK. You can decide tomorrow whether you want to lynch him for that.

Anyway you probably won't have to worry about sorting vax since he almost certainly dies tonight. The only real question is whether guac gets shot by Pun.

That might be enough. Anyway, good luck guys, if this game is even still winnable after tonight.
vote conspiracy
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Post Post #3773 (isolation #153) » Sun Aug 26, 2018 4:01 pm

Post by Krazy »

Errant, great job moderating and cool setup. GG everyone.
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Post Post #3794 (isolation #154) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:29 am

Post by Krazy »

Yeah, I think this was a bit unwinnable for you though. I had a strong suspicion that the worst had hardclaimed scum to you in the PM and almost certainly lynch you right there with Sho and DV (if Vax gets killed). While you might not think you 'sided' with the worst, putting so much of your main case of the day on Sho and reading so transparently as 'SK talking to scum' that there is no way I believe you after the worst gets lynched.

I think that you made it to endgame as basically claimed SK is, if not a win, then at least a serious credit to your third party play
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Post Post #3797 (isolation #155) » Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:20 pm

Post by Krazy »

In post 3796, Punreader wrote:Not even after I laid out explicitly that he did in fact claim to me and laid out exactly why I did the things I was doing? How the plan was to make sure I lynched the unknown pun so that I had the opportunity to lynch the worst at any time if need be?
Well I was dead at that point so I don't know how living me would have responded.
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Post Post #3798 (isolation #156) » Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:21 pm

Post by Krazy »

@Errant, was there any objection to scum PT? I'm not like dying to see it but I am a bit curious
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Post Post #3802 (isolation #157) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 12:05 pm

Post by Krazy »

Fun stuff, thanks for finding the links Pun
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