Open Setup Autopsies (HELP)

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mith
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mith
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Post Post #107 (isolation #0) » Tue Sep 04, 2018 10:55 am

Post by mith »

In post 5, Mathdino wrote:
POLYGAMIST4 Mafia Lovers (1 set)
8 Town Lovers (4 sets)

- Nightless.

Now if lynches were random (which people say is against site rules but I can't find this), you'd get 60%, but suppose the town agreed on a single lover pair as a town king (to just decide or dice roll 2 lynches). This leads to a winrate of 70%. Town's optimal strategy is just to find one pair that's being townish and have them roll 2 lynches. Done.
True (and provable) randomness is discouraged (and banned in some rulesets). Mostly because there's no point playing the game at all if you are going to do that. (Also, the 70% winrate is only if the "town king" is actually town. 60% is the actual EV for this setup.)

It is true that on this site towns tend to get worse than random results in Vanilla games, though I don't think this is universally true; it's not (generaly) true even here for Nightless, but this setup is short enough (and has a high enough scum ratio) to prevent town from getting much of an advantage. Anyway, Polygamist is a gimmick game, and should not be run frequently (just run two games of Nightless Lovers 2:4 instead). It's fine if town would do better lynching randomly when that isn't a real option (lynching randomly becomes a real problem when there are named roles to potentially confirm innocent - then you have the "town king" for real and if lynching randomly would get you better results because you're terrible town, you have a way to do it).

Specific setups should be discussed in the subforum - regardless of how many people use it right now (and typically the ones that do comment on setups are prolific in reviewing such setups), that's what the subforum is for and the more use it gets the more people will look there.
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