Heroes Wanted! (Game Over)

[Drixx]

I mean ... the other test is to lynch gamma today. Tora can't act tonight and a Gamma scum flip basically locks Math as scum and math can't be leader tomorrow so...

[Drixx]

So here's an interesting thought:

Nero was definitely voted for by: Ausuka, Sakura

That means it took 3 votes to make math leader. We now know Nancy was one of those votes. So let's look at the assigned + claimed Nero voter group again:

{

Ausuka

,

Sakura

,

Nancy

, Toranaga, Gamma Emerald}

Tell me why the answer isn't Tora + Gamma again?

[Drixx]

drixx, nothing is that easy, right? there's no way scum would just hand the game like that

mathblade got nancy drew outed by YOLO making himself leader. she played a great, very participative game and deserved better than to get mechanically outed by math.

if math isn't scum, what nancy drew is completely nonsensical. she just threw a great scum game for no fucking reason.

you're just... I mean it's so obvious math is scum. you just work through weird logical waves to get there and I have no patience interacting with it. I will flip town and then you will resolve math so it's fine.

There's nothing weird about reason and logic friend.

We know for sure that Nero got two votes. This is true if:

1.) Ausuka and Sakura voted Nero
2.) Sakura and one of {Gamma, You (Tora)} voted Nero

Because Nero absolutely got two votes in 100% of possibility spaces, that means that Math needed three. The voting rules make it very clear that Nero would have won a tie.

The simplest explanation is that remaining scum is {You, Gamma} and your team decided to roll the dice. I already pointed out how a conservative worst case could have made tomorrow game over if we had screwed up today. And it's not like there wasn't adequate lynchbait around. I kept going through Nosferatu's ISO looking for a rational case. Creature hasn't exactly shined this game.

Mechanically it makes the most sense to leave you be since you are power expended, but you aren't at all clear. Logically you can only be town if:

1.) Scum had some unknown ability to impose leadership out of accordance with the stated rules (which is borderline bastard since we were given very specific rules for how leader is determined, not to mention bad design and against the theme).

OR

2.) Ausuka forgot to leader vote

AND

Gamma is scum who voted for Mathblade

AND

there's a townie/scum who has yet to fess up to also voting for Mathblade.

Rationally speaking, it's really hard to even run with the premise that you're town right now. The evidence is pretty heavily stacked against you. It takes the moderator lying to us about how leader is determined OR a lot of low probability things all happening to clear you.

[Drixx]

@Nero - I think it's exactly what it looks like. Scum throwing a frame up on Math. It nearly worked.

Tora wants to live too badly and if he's alive I am forced not to act tonight for fear that my BP or FG gets echoed onto him and he can blow another town up without himself dying.

I think Tor is the lynch. If he does somehow flip green, then Gamma is the lynch tomorrow.

Leader votes should be split between you and whomever you trust the most.

[Drixx]

Drixx just gonna restate that there is a far greater than 0% chance of Ausuka missing the vote there. but I agree there's literally a logical probability that there's two scum on the leaderwagon

It's definitely a nonzero chance but ... let's assume Ausuka didn't vote. That still means there's a scum in {Tora, Gamma} because otherwise Nero would be leader.

While we don't know what the scum factional abilities are (if they even have any besides kill), we DO know that the moderator went into great detail about how the leader is determined. Any ability to bypass that would mean the mod went to great effort to lie to us. That's kind of the primary reason I've discounted it as a possibility so heavily.

If Ausuka DID vote Nero, then supposing that Toranaga also did means Math would have needed FOUR votes. That would require a town player to have voted Math and decided not to tell us that. That would be gamethrowing.

QED - I think this is GG. Lynch Tora, Lynch Gamma.

[Drixx]

I prefer Drixx and will vote there

I guess it doesn't matter but I hate your biasness.

Come on Nero. You can't possibly have any doubts. I brought it hard today.

[Drixx]

"nancy convincing us of no lynch" lel if scum believed that'd be a thing

you know my original plan was pretty great, we'd have so many kills today, and then nancy tried her hardest to mess with it and we came up with sub par agreeable stuff

sucks to suck I guess

This looks an awful lot like a surrender post.

[Drixx]

Drixx/Nero obvious leaders tonight.

Drixx/Nero/Sando/Creature/Kokichi for powers? We need to leash Math imo still.

With 1 scum alive I think they can still petrify+kill potentially?

Drixx voters - Sando, Nero, Math, Creature, Gamma
Nero voters - Drixx, Kokichi, the worst, Nos

Drixx and Nero should both take goo and use it I think, no-one else does anything.

I agree to powers list

I plan on SS suicide bombing whoever of Tor/Gamma isn’t lynched since that should be gg
I plan to vote Drixx

Can I go to bed now?

Excuse me, why are you considering bombing me?

Simple math. Nancy flipped red. So this is what we have to work with:

Math would lose any tie with Nero due to the rules. Math was on the mislynch and nero was not, so that's the first tiebreaker and Nero would be leader if the votes were equal.

People assigned plus claiming to vote for Nero are: {

Ausuka

,

Sakura

,

Nancy

, Toranaga, Gamma}

Sakura confirmed voting for Nero.

If Ausuka voted for Nero, then it's literally not possible that two of {

Nancy

, Toranaga, Gamma} did. Even if ONE of those voted for Nero, that would mean 3 votes. How could Math get 4 votes? There were only 3 scum.

So basically Ausuka had to have forgotten to vote for to actually have voted Nero, Gamma. I think Toranaga is always scum here and he already made a surrender post complaining that Nancy persuaded the team to go with a subpar plan so he eats rope. You get blown up because you put yourself into that PoE and we have no way to clear you.

Make sense?

[Drixx]

This is super easy, Tora.

If you somehow flip green after

literally

making a post where you claimed to have had a better plan than Nancy, AND then also Gamma flips Green (Math is locked into doing that tonight or eats rope tomorrow), then we have hard evidence that scum can bypass the leader vote rules (which would make the post concerning how leadership is acquired a mod lie, but that would be something to address after the game).

But let's just think about that potential for a moment. Sakura definitely voted Nero. You say you did too. Gamma claims to have done so also. If you were to both flip green, that's 3 confirmed Nero votes and thus is proof that Math was elected via some hidden ability the scum team has. I'll just list the possible worlds here:

1.) Ausuka, Sakura, Tora and Gamma all voted Nero - In this world we know scum can bypass the leader mechanism and Math becomes tomorrow's lynch presumably.
2.) Ausuka forgot to vote. Sakura, Tora and Gamma all voted Nero - Same as #1

Because of the above, if we see both you and Gamma flip town, we know for certain that a scum ability put math in leadership. Then the weak evidence against Math would outweigh the numbers because we would know the numbers of votes were irrelevant. Right now the certainty that the mod provided an ironclad explanation for how the leader is selected, without any disclaimers other than M/LYLO and no lynch, far outweighs.

3.) Ausuka, Sakura both voted Nero. Nancy, Gamma, Tora voted Math. -- This world requires no assumptions other than that the mod was completely honest with how leaders are selected, which is why it's the most rational and most likely correct world. (Again: GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW)

4.) Ausuka forgot to vote. Sakura voted Nero. One of {Nancy, Tora, Gamma} also voted Nero. The other two and a 3rd scum not in this list voted Math in as a frame. In this case you should be happy to die because you already expressed a desire to leave the game, and your death would be a trade for scum 1:1 which we always win.

5.) Votes are irrelevant. The mod's very thorough explanation of leadership mechanic is false and the leader votes tell us nothing. In this world Math is almost certainly scum.


So ...

@ALL: If both Toranaga and Gamma flip green and I get killed tonight, then math eats rope tomorrow.

-- The reasoning is pretty simple: Precog was incorrect.

It also probably is worth at least SOME discussion about where the final scum is located if it's not just {Tora, Gamma}

[Drixx]

oh NOW precog being incorrect is meaningful lol

sure

I'm flipping town obviously

I never said the precog being partially wrong was meaningless. I simply weighted other evidence higher than that. If; however, we arrive at a gamestate where that evidence simply cannot be correct, then it has zero weight.

you don't even read the game drixx

I made that plan where the towncore would get sui bombs

nancy was ITT arguing against it

this didn't happen in our WOLFCHAT. at the very least stop wanting to be right. you're wrong and I'm dead, it's fine.

That was a pretty confusing post you made. I'm going to quote it again because you didn't say in THAT post what you're saying in this post. Also ... you self-voted which is literally never playing to wincon as town. So if you're town, you are playing against wincon and need to stop doing that.

[Drixx]

This isn't hard Tora. You're a threat if you're scum and we don't lynch you right now. You will be able to get another bomb off and I have to use no FG/IP tonight while you live for fear it gets echoed onto you. It's simply the correct move in the current game state.

So if we show up tomorrow and Gamma wasn't killed, then obviously Math eats rope. The reason Math would go before Gamma should be REALLY obvious.

[Drixx]

like you live in such a dream land, that you think wolves would all vote math instead of nero. the only wolf that did this was nancy. me, ausuka and sakura are town, and you and sando wanted to nuke the entire pool of players regardless of how they played or how little it makes sense. it's bad. also, it's very clear gamma and I cannot both be scum but you're with your head so down mechanics you don't even fully know about that you can't see it.

Explain to me how you and gamma can't be scum together.

Also: just so you know ... any argument that boils down to "Scum wouldn't do that" is worthless. There's literally NOTHING that scum won't do. You should go look at my solo scum game in SMITE and the in hydra Reasonably Rational scum game in Steven Universe 2.

In SMITE, I literally told someone I knew was town exactly where to look to out me as scum and that player and the rest of the game believed my claims because "Scum wouldn't tell us exactly where to find evidence they are scum". At the end of that game, I put a coup de grace on the game by withholding my vote when it seemed that it would win the game for me because making that vote would not have been sticking with my story. Instead, I got town who had been flipped and resurrected to completely buy my story and vote where I wanted so I got the win by eliminating the SK with the lynch instead of having to deal with a re-direct issue during the night to finish the win. There's a whole bunch of "scum would never..." there.

In SU2, Cerberus and I literally played the game as if we were town. We chose a LYLO that nobody believed we would ever choose as scum, and the player with the deciding vote literally spent two weeks trying to find ANY reasoning for scum us and ultimately just decided that she would rather lose WITH us than TO us and voted us. That game also features a gigantic pile of "no fucking way scum would..." shit.


And here's the kicker: Neither Cerb nor I consider ourselves to be particularly good scum. If we have the balls to gambit that hard ... why not players better than us?

[Drixx]

you missed the part where I'm much more useful for town when I'm town, cause you don't even want to consider that possibility

and I'm bleeding town for ages now. I'm such an easy read. you're incompetent, drixx. sorry.

If I had any reason to actually be confident that you are town, then you would be super useful. The problem is that you think you're obvtown because of a bunch of emotion and ATE posts, but that's not enough. You were far to flip/floppy earlier. The "narrative" of your play from start to finish is really messy and while it's possible for town to produce the kind of ISO you have ... there's much more in there that appears to be scummy narrative slips.

Please do feel welcome to make a rational argument. Note I haven't voted yet and I'm not trying to hurry the day up. I'm putting in the time like I said I would and trying to game solve. A town you should be doing everything you can to help instead of hurling insults.

Also to address a couple things you said:

1.) The power echo would be used on me to copy my night action onto you. That means that while you live I cannot afford to use Force-field Generation or Impenetrable Skin because that would give a scum!Tora the ability to bomb another townie without also dying.

2.) There's literally no way for me to know that you would bomb who you say you will. That's meaningless fluff.

3.) If Math doesn't bomb Gamma in the night, then math eats rope tomorrow. It's that easy.

[Drixx]

so there you go

"scum wouldn't do that" is a worthless argument to you

therefore the reasoning being, gamma would only out himself to frame me doesn't work in your brain

we've been there before

You can't have it both ways. Either scum DID out themselves (Nancy and Gamma, according to you), or they didn't. You can't have 1/2 the argument to argue we should lynch Gamma and then reject the idea when it puts you in the POE.

The REAL kicker here is that the only ways that either you or Gamma can even be town are:

1.) Ausuka forgot to leader vote (tantamount to game throwing)
2.) The mod literally gave us an elaborate lie about how leaders are selected

That's the entire possibility space.

I literally have to assume that either Ausuka failed to put in a leader vote

OR

that the mod lied in the setup info in order to come to the conclusion that you are town.

So sure ... the Ausuka forgetting is a definite possibility. You haven't done a lot today except attack people personally. I would expect scum you to be ATE and flailing (which is what I see).

I would expect town anyone I've ever played with to be putting in effort to make sure that after they die and are confirmed to be playing for town wincon they have left as much of a legacy as possible to the rest of the team.

So like I said already: if you're town ... then show us.

[Drixx]

Tora you seem to be missing the point I'm making. If you're town you can't argue me into believing that. You should be focused on what you claim makes you town: scum hunting.

Even if we suppose that Math is scum ... there's still one other out there. Who is that?

And while we're assuming for a moment you are town ... you being town doesn't make you right about Math. So ... you should also be assuming Math is town and giving your evaluation of that possible scenario.


If you are town here, you are literally just being spiteful and hoping the rest of us fuck up so you can insult us post game. That's not pro town man.

[Drixx]

I kind of think that Math needs to use precog actually. The reality is that I don't think it's reasonable to assume Math will be able to blow anyone up tonight. As much as I'd like to assume that Math can blow up Gamma so we eliminate the current POE before tomorrow starts ... there's way too many scenarios where we show up tomorrow and Math and Gamma are both alive.

@Math: We have breathing room. You need to precog. At that point (assuming you're town because that's the highest probability atm) scum will add more evidence to you being town by using extra actions that shouldn't happen or else they will not be able to or choose not to in order to keep your status in doubt.

At this point with 2 scum left, we have every reason to use mechanical advantages and no reason to YOLO it up in here.

[Drixx]

"Nero didn't get elected b/c a unknown scum ability."

While that's clearly possible it makes sense to lynch from my supposed voters.

B.S. went to an awful lot of trouble to

very thoroughly

outline how the leader is selected. There are disclaimers in there for all sorts of things. Honestly I view it as a mod error already that there isn't a disclaimer that says "Powers may or may not be able to impact the leader selection process." or something similar, but it's not like a super obvious mistake. If anything it's a reason to ask someone good at mechanics and breaking things to look at setup and try and break it.

The fact that it's missing implies that B.S. either didn't consider giving scum that possibility or decided against it and then felt like such a disclaimer was unnecessary.


P-Edit: Generally speaking, scum are allowed to do their factional kill plus another ability. It's not a 100% absolute but it's almost an absolute in large themed on site.

[Drixx]

Precog is the play Math. Trust me. If you don't precog, you're going to end up eating rope tomorrow and there won't be anything I can do to stop it.

[Drixx]

Furthermore assuming Tor flips red that is a second. Gamma would necessarily be the third.

If Tor somehow flips town which I find extremely unlikely we need to have that check of me to everyone.

So respectfully no I shouldn’t precog Drixx.

the check on you is by you voluntarily flipping yourself with gamma tomorrow. that's what sakura did today. that's the townplay.

No it fucking isn’t. I 100% know scum is between you two.

Therefore I kill you ASAP.

I understand you guys don’t know that but I do.

I am not precogging.

If there IS a scum ability to force install a leader, then it's actually quite possible for there to be zero scum in {Math, Tora, Gamma}

So no you cannot proceed as if it's a certainty. It's highly probable but that's not the same thing as certain.

[Drixx]

ausuka or whoever it was actually
point is MY VOTE CHANGES THINGS

noting that gamma emerald actually retracted that he voted nero

You are incorrect. See below.

you don't understand how math being leader incriminates you? that's rather incredible.

I think scum stuffed the ballot box to screw me over :/ I just started reading on my lunch break...and I am just ...fuck :/

It’s kind of a brilliant plan.

Use a scum factional to fuck with my precog and then another to make me leader.

Then town mislynches the only healer and scum coast forcing me to have to vig scum tonight.

Like damn.

This is where I'm at tbh

Like the initial plan had me on Tor, but I voted Nero.

So it's practically impossible for math to be scum right?

ausuka or whoever it was actually

point is MY VOTE CHANGES THINGS

[Drixx]

There's really not a lot of reason to prefer a Gamma lynch over a Tora lynch. Gamma handed us the POE we have by saying he voted for Nero.

We kind of have to lynch both of them. Of the two, Tora presents the most threat if he's scum since he has the suicide bomb power. This is especially true if I were to use FG or BP tonight and scum were able to copy it over to him.

The worst case situation right now is if Math is leader due to some scum ability which is able to contravene the normal leadership selection rules. In that world, it's actually possible for our entire current POE to be town. That's another reason to rope Tora first. He showed today that he's reckless with power. I'm not sure I trust him with a bomb, even if he were to obvtown the shit out of himself right now.

[Drixx]

Thanks for modding. You are probably being too hard on yourself. I would be happy to give specific feedback if you want it, either privately or publicly.

@Math - At what point did you realize I was on to you?

@Sando - Great job obvtowning at the right time. I felt like I was taking a huge risk with the team selection but I also thought that if it worked and got us through the night, it should also leave enough info for the win. What in particular made you trust the worst in the end?

[Drixx]

other than nancy was obvscum d1 etc.

(that's not me bragging about a read, that's me hating the fact that I gave up a very strong correct scumread for shitty reasons)

Just to point out,

Nancy actually played really damn well this game, having a playerlist of this caliber and not only surviving for most of the game but also being locked town for a good chunk of that survival time is a very impressive feat for sone's first ever scumgame. I'd be very proud of this game.

Going to mostly agree except for her usage of personal attacks as a way to get people to back off. The faked confusion about things was really good though. It took awhile before she slipped up and outed that as being fake, and at that point she knew she was a sinking ship I think.

[Drixx]

So yes, TW just correctly hit a 50/50 between Creature/Sando, and Sando gambled on Creature when Creature should've been confscum to him.

I was 100% legit and not testing when I offered it to Creature as well

Second game I've said to scum "here, please have the game", and they've turned me down.

I didn't have any way to talk to you besides whom I chose to give powers to. I thought you reasoned it out in the end, lol.

[Drixx]

setup was loltownsided so we had no reason to rush

mathblade was saying like "if we can't find a single wolf in the towncore we deserve to lose!" which, yeah

in hindsight it's easier to see those things but the scum agenda was rolling off his tongue more than it's reasonable and you guys managed to miss all of that

You're saying the same stuff I was saying back when people were going along with the idea of many bombs. No reason to speed it up, etc...

As far as Math goes: if you thought I was townreading math any time past the Pre-cog "challenge" with Titus and the very obviously faked "fighting" between Titus and Math (who always fight so had to "fight" in this game), then I'm glad I fooled you at least. I was trying to fool Math though. Math knew for most of the game that I knew. I think we probably both dropped subtext into our posts.

[Drixx]

setup was loltownsided so we had no reason to rush

mathblade was saying like "if we can't find a single wolf in the towncore we deserve to lose!" which, yeah

in hindsight it's easier to see those things but the scum agenda was rolling off his tongue more than it's reasonable and you guys managed to miss all of that

You're saying the same stuff I was saying back when people were going along with the idea of many bombs. No reason to speed it up, etc...

As far as Math goes: if you thought I was townreading math any time past the Pre-cog "challenge" with Titus and the very obviously faked "fighting" between Titus and Math (who always fight so had to "fight" in this game), then I'm glad I fooled you at least. I was trying to fool Math though. Math knew for most of the game that I knew. I think we probably both dropped subtext into our posts.

I was pretty sure you were scumreading me most of the game and the verbal chess was pretty enjoyable. Then when you townread me when I scumclaimed then I didn’t know what to think.

I feel bad to Drixx and Kokichi especially about making you play while not talking. My original plan had everyone playing and that part didnt happen

You were supposed to think you had me pocketed so I didn't end up dead and unable to finish the game, LOL.

I'm super glad that The Worst realized exactly what I was going for. The only way I could communicate to people was with my team selection. Even so, I needed a lot to go right for it to work. I'm not sure if BS told the dead thread, but I only submitted one team and I took my time doing it... I think he even asked me if I was going to or even was still playing before I did.

1.) I needed the Worst to realize what not being given a team spot meant.
2.) I needed Creature to assume I was duped and act accordingly.
3.) I needed Sando to freeze Creature
4.) I needed all of that to result in a no kill
5.) I needed the worst to immediately claim not being given powers so that Sando could
6.) Put it all together.

I should have asked BS for a PT to talk to myself in since I was stuck playing but unable to post. I tend to be amusing when I'm alive by myself with nobody to talk to (See: SMITE scum chat).

[Drixx]

Yeah mainly I had to pick which of you of and Nero was getting petrified leader and which was dying

Nero’s power made him a bit too risky plus I thought it would hurt him more as a person to be in that spot

I hated I had to say Brian made a mod error publically at that point (I still think he made a few but those horses have been beat to death so not rehashing) and I hated what I did to you or Kokichi

If I turned off my emotions I should have made Nero petrified leader

I mean ... you guys played well. Nancy stayed hidden for a long time. I only caught on to her near the end when she was in the suspect pool and I had reason to look closer and realized she had faked confusion. Creature did a fantastic job.

I'll put it a different way. You knew I knew you were scum for almost the entire game, but I didn't push you because I was trying to figure out the hidden scum and viewed you as a lynch I could get any time I wanted.

That very nearly resulted in a mass kill/petrify game win for your team. It probably should have.


So ... while I appreciate the hell out of the Worst and Sando figuring it out and especially the worst for realizing what I was trying to communicate ... I should be sitting here taking the blame for a town loss instead of getting some credit for a miracle win.

The lesson for me: take the scum you know and then move from there. Don't try and be too fancy.


Also: I already covered the point with BS in private, but I re-iterate the assertion that when rules are made so precise, disclaimers need to be present, whether any actual scum factional abilities exist or not. The disclaimer keeps the possibility space as wide as possible and thus prevents mod explanations or rules from being leveraged into figuring out alignment information. It also allows the mod to say nothing. And it's really picking nits anyway.

I'm pretty excited because I think BS did an amazing job and I think we'll be co-modding a game I've wanted to run for years so ... win win win

[Drixx]

Also also, I was very confident I could figure out if she was more or less likely to be scum once the VCA came out, so wasn't a priority. *shrug*

So what did I miss that I should have done? I'm sure you have a list of things.

[Drixx]

Like I still dont get any of the muffin/theta scumreads.

I scumifyied him to save Drixx as the scum PT said to save Drixx

Actually this reminds me. Why did you guys let me live at all? I understand the petrify decision but I don't get why I was left alive most of the game. I mean ... you even acknowledge that you know I had you figured out early (that also is something I'd like to know; how you figured it out... did I tip my hand or?) so why leave me in play?

I mean ... you guys dropped Cerb like a bad habit night one, lol.

[Drixx]

NGL, the only thing I remember from Drixx is he thinking i somehow mind controller people irl to suggest me as leader.

LOL. We knew there was a hidden scum. I was just observing a short time frame narrative arc that looked like it was planned out.

You should work on that facet of play. You can figure out someone is town a lot by realizing their "story" in the game is natural and makes perfect sense and likewise find a lot of scum because things they were setting up have to be mangled and bent out of shape to fit the narrative they need to push for their "story" to make sense.

[Drixx]

Oh btw if anyone wants a good read, check out Not Your Sidekick by C.B. Lee. It actually is behind one of my jokes I made

If we're sharing good reads:

http://www.hpmor.com

http://parahumans.wordpress.com