OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[AP]

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

[AP]

VOTE: AP

No comments on anything else? Is that RVS or

What does it look like to you? A case???

[AP]

Last night I dreamt of San Pedro
It all seems like yesterday, not far away

I didn't know you were a Ciccone!

[AP]

You know...
If she were scum pgo..

She'd probably play it the same way. The scum motivation is to do whatever you want when posting as you can see.

That said ruru, please if town use your limited time alive to share actual insight because I for one am pro-policy lynch for roles like pgo and miller etc.

Why would scum PGO claim PGO though? Isn't the idea to lure TPRs and have them killed??

[AP]

VOTE: skitter

Only one besides me who hasn't posted yet.

Wait, this can't be true.. Ausuka's posted?

Hushshsh! Ausuka is my scum p, so I didn't want to get her in the spotlight.

Spoiler:

VOTE: Bujaber

VOTE: Enigma

[AP]

@Skygazer: Just a yes/no, please. Are you an alt of an existing MS user? Because the way you post doesn't strike me as a newbie at all.

[AP]

Why wouldn't town pick an investigator role first or at least pretend to be one with the low keyness and then pgo.

Because they'd be a prime target for the NK anyway. If you're #1 in the picking order and you're town, scum will always assume you picked Cop, Role Cop or JK/Tracker. However, TPRs don't know who's town and one of those might be inclined to investigate the person who picked first, hence the claim. (Otherwise it would have been great if she didn't claim and just obv!towned enough to guarantee she gets targeted by the NK on N1).

[AP]

but why claim now? the plan falls apart completely and it serves town no purpose.

I wouldn't have claimed tbh, since PGO is "Active" (i.e. you pick which night to activate it). If I was PGO I'd lay low, give the TPRs a chance to check me if they wanted to, and then activate on N2/N3 when I feel like I'm globally TR'd and likely to be NK'd.

That said, ruru might have thought she's a prime NK target becaise she picked first, and -in that case- if a Doctor existed they'd be inclined to be on her. HOWEVER, Doctor may not be in play (it's Doc or RB), so it's better to self-protect and let the "possible" Doctor protect elsewhere.

Like brass, I'm not saying ruru played it the optimal way, but I sure do understand where she's coming from.

[AP]

You don't have to. She made it easy with pgo claim. Policy lynch tomorrow.

PGO gets PL'd at the day before LyLo.

[AP]

Also, I'm keeping my reads confidential for now. I have a certain slot that's getting on my nerve right now and I'm not quite sure what to make of it.

[AP]

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

[AP]

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

is this just a sheep?

Nope. That was the slot that actually got me pulling my hair off. Al he seems to do is nitpick anything that anyone else says. It looks like he wants to stand out as "doing something different" but -at the same time- nothing productive. He's spewing doubt in every single case or line of reasoning anyone else tries to build upon and that's it.

[AP]

Looks like I missed something a long ago:

@ap: is this a fair assessment of scum!cj given jungle republic? (from skitter)

Yes, more or less. He plays well in-thread but doesn't talk much in the scum PT. However, I was caught on N1, so didn't even have enough time to talk to him much myself.

[AP]

what are you referring to here?

Being persistent on shading ruru despite the fact (from my own PoV) it's clear she's town and her pick and claim came from a townie mindset.

But is there town motivation?

Again, beating a dead horse. If there's no

scum motivation

it's a town action. There are plenty of town motivation that are best kept hidden and it gets on my nerves -in general- when people persist on dwelling over a certain point to no end. (ex: I was once a Cop, and I got a clear on someone, and the town Vig was persistent on either shooting me or shooting my innocent regardless of the flip of the day lynch. I eventually burst and replaced out after telling them how stupid their play was. It was D2 and I was defending just ONE player. Isn't this reason enough to take a breath and consider the possibilities? Would scum stick their neck this far out to defend a buddy?)

Anyway..

Why wouldn't town pick an investigator role first or at least pretend to be one with the low keyness and then pgo.

People do not think alike nor do they act alike. This is trying to force his own way as the only correct way.

Why wouldn't town pick an investigator role first or at least pretend to be one with the low keyness and then pgo.

Because they'd be a prime target for the NK anyway. If you're #1 in the picking order and you're town, scum will always assume you picked Cop, Role Cop or JK/Tracker. However, TPRs don't know who's town and one of those might be inclined to investigate the person who picked first, hence the claim. (Otherwise it would have been great if she didn't claim and just obv!towned enough to guarantee she gets targeted by the NK on N1).

but why claim now? the plan falls apart completely and it serves town no purpose.

The answer to his question is within the very post he's quoting.

I don't think Engima was scumreading BuJaber

Explain 39 in light of Oka's statement. Also, why don't we ask Enigma himself rather than declare reads on his behalf?

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

So he does SR BuJaber. Or are his probability calculations indicative of intent to propose for marriage? And how can a vote based on the

probability of being scum

be considered a RANDOM vote?

What I am saying is that ruru may have not played it optimally for town but maybe she did play it optimally for scum.

The phrasing is still pinging me. "If it's not optimal town play then it maybe scum play!"

SCUM PGO DOES NOT CLAIM. They simply lurk and lure a TPR or two to drop by and BOOOM! That's it. Also PGO doesn't live to LyLo (unless we are lucky enough to have 2 scums down by then already), so ruru is asking to be lynched before LyLo. WHAT is the scum motivation there?

Let's assume the worst. ruru is a scum Vig. She claims to keep the investigatives away. Now why the hell does she do that (thus condemn herself to being lynched) when she could've just used up her vig shot on N1 anyway, and played to live longer?

Maybe I am a bit biased? Maybe it's a playing style thing? I dunno. But being skeptical is one thing ad spreading the seeds of doubt about most everything even the obvious is totally another.

Just my humble opinion.

[AP]

AP, are your reads still confidential?

Most of them are, but I guess it clear I hard TR you and SR Oka.

[AP]

Idk what to do with invis. I'll just call him null. Oh well. Back here I guess

VOTE: Enigma

Pedit naa naa naaa i dont hear youuu

OK. This looks like a bad vote to me, but I want to gave an explanation before I make a push. Please explain in you own words what was going through your mind when you posted this.

[AP]

@ruru: Why is brass scum? I kinda have a slight TR on him. Help?

[AP]

I don't think Engima was scumreading BuJaber

Explain 39 in light of Oka's statement. Also, why don't we ask Enigma himself rather than declare reads on his behalf?

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

So he does SR BuJaber. Or are his probability calculations indicative of intent to propose for marriage? And how can a vote based on the

probability of being scum

be considered a RANDOM vote?

Oh come on. You just mentioned why do we ask me, then you go on to make a conclusion of my scum read....

It was a semi-RVS vote for picking the same number as me, I would have done it regardless of what had happened before I posted. The probability stuff is true. Go read game theory and cooperative/non-cooperative game play.

So, it was a semi-RVS and not a SR, yet your vote is

still

on BuJaber because?

Hint: You better amuse me, cuz I actually typed the vote then decided not to put you @L-1 now

[AP]

And I'm policy lynching you if you don't,

even if you're an international man of mystery

Oh, behave!

[AP]

@ruru.@Oka: Can we like.. shut this conversation about claims off? If I was scum I would have loved you both for the amount of ideas you're giving me.

P.S. I am now leaning town on Oka, I'm more inclined to believe it's his argumentative playstyle that's annoying me, but I can certainly see the town motive behind his play, and I think it bad for scum!him to do this.

UNVOTE:

[AP]

i was kinda wondering if he was just waiting for someone else to vote so he could sheep them
--

Come on, skitter. You know me better than that. I do not "sheep" as scum, unless I wanted to appear like I had nothing to do with the lynch. Here I clearly said I was seeing something that bothered me, so I'd be taking he initiative and vote first if I was scum (yeah, self-meta sucks.. whatever)

[AP]

LOL.. I shouldn't be playing Mafia today, really!

I can't get over the "fact" that Sky is the SK, CJ is the RB and Sando is Mafia (in the game that just ended), and it's affecting my interpretation of every single post I read today.

TTY 2moro

[AP]

- Ausuka.... AP...... I turned my back for 1 minute and you guys stole my pagetop. rawr.

When light goes down
I see no reason
For you to cry
We've been through this before
In every time
in every season
God knows I've tried
So please don't ask for more

Don't mind me, folks. I'm jut warming myself up to get in the mood

[AP]

anyway now i can do this
UNVOTE:
VOTE: AP

And hello to you too, my friend. Any questions you want to send my way?

[AP]

This game's a disaster

Just because I'm not using my mojo yet doesn't make it a cat-astrophe

[AP]

im not sure

i

understand my own thought process

Good one

[AP]

AP

keeps talking about self meta

?? I only did it once in response to skitter!!

[AP]

@Oka: I know my playstyle is probably puzzling you, but there's always a way to solve your dilemma and end your confusion: ASK me about my alignment.

Now if I'm town I will tell you so, and will be

telling the truth

If I'm scum though I'd still be telling you I'm town, but then

I would be lying

See? Easy. I'f I'm telling the truth I'm town and if I'm lying I'm scum, and it works 100% of the time.

I hope that helps.

[AP]

NOT VOTING: AP, Enigma, ceejayvinoya, vulcan logician, Skygazer,

We need 2 more

unvotes

here. Let's get a claim, shall we?

[AP]

Seriously though

ruru is 100% town to me.
ofrhz and Oka are next level town
I think Enigma might be town

Everyone else is more or less "in the mix", and while I don't have an explicit scum read yet I might be inclined to pressure the lower numbers (outside of those I think are town already), so Sky > Vulcan > Vizzy > Skitter ... etc

[AP]

AP what are your reads?

There are pros and cons to everyone playing how they play having picked what they picked as either alignment.

That is to say, I can see Sky playing the way she does as either alignment, and it's almost a given she got her PR of choice regardless of her alignment. (Unless she sent for Vig/PGO ) and so on. In the previous run of this setup I did try a similar approach and it backfired because I assumed those who picked the lowest numbers were scum and those who had duplicate picks had one scum in then at most .. etc, which made my reads based on the draft numbers alone a mess.

[AP]

PS: if he flips red, me feels SvS with AP.

I concur. I never trusted that AP guys. He's so cheeky and smug too. I'd much rather Jackie Chan in The Tuxedo, tbh. (Well, the bonus is JLH is still in The Tuxedo)

[AP]

VOTE: Vizzy

[AP]

Why would I? He put himself @L-1, so he's not a TPR. He's either a VT or scum in my book.

[AP]

*Gulp!* I thought VIZZY self-voted. It turns out CJV put him @L-1. Yikes!

Anyway, you do you, I'll do me. Let's see if you can lynch me tomorrow regardless.

[AP]

I haven't watched Austin Powers, are you roleplaying?

Not really, baby. But aside from the role part, I love to play all the same.

[AP]

I don't know if confirming invis would be that helpful to town vs more active players

Then why did you bloody vote him yourself??

[AP]

I mean wasting a town investigator on him for a night.

We flip him because he is unreadable

OIC. I kinda misread it as you being skeptical of why we flipped him over the more active players. My bad.

Little furry toothless creature; I summon thee. (He's probably busy watching a dream where he actually grows some feathers and -maybe- learn to fly?? Hmmm.. I never got ask him if he was a domestic duck or a wild one! I mean, I know he's wild.. but how wild is the question! )

[AP]

If duckling doesn't show up soon enough I'm gonna "ducktape" both his feet together.

[AP]

- AP: why did you hammer?

I mistook CJV's vote for an Invis self-vote, which in my mind translated to either scum gambitting to look like they didn't care or a VT (in which case it was still a better lynch than one that leads to a TPR claim).

Obviously ot was a mistake but one that paid off anyway, so I'm not sorry.

[AP]

-Can someone help me understand what ruru's strategy was? I don't get the town fakeclaim. A townie who knows she's lying will counterclaim and ruru likely gets lynched. And scum who know she's lying will NK her. And I think that's what happened. It's the most likely explanation in my mind.

I am one to claim I perfectly understand ruru's gambit (and I acknowledge I did from the very start too).

First off; PGO/1-shot Vig is rarely ever picked anyway, much less so by the #1 draft. ruru obviously was claiming a strong TPR that needed to try and evade the NK. If a Townie had the role they would not have CC'd if they knew what they were doing (and/ot if they knew ruru well enough). Scum would have also known she was lying if they did have the role, so I'm slightly leaning they do, but not ruling out someone in the scum team knows ruru well enough and called her bluff.

[AP]

Another possibility is that Enigma is mafia, and it wouldn't have mattered which wagon they jumped on. (I lean town on Enigma, so I think this second option is unlikely, but it's still worth mentioning.)

But it did. Unless you think Enigma is also a GOON. I think this is the key to solving the case

IF

Enigma is scum here. You would sacrifice your pawn to save the queen every single time it gets offered to you.

[AP]

How does that give Sando townpoints?

G

A

M

E

S

O

L

V

I

N

G

Shoulda said "gamsolving brooooooooooo".

Anyway, I have this townlean on both Oka and Sky.

ROTFL. Now I

demand

to be referred to as "the airhead" or something similar for the rest of the game.
My first impression when I saw the avi was "Why is the already lynched guy still posting"

I SWEAR IT'S TRUE! An I don't even know why. I mean, the avatars of the two aren't even similar!!

[AP]

- AP: why did you hammer?

I mistook CJV's vote for an Invis self-vote, which in my mind translated to either scum gambitting to look like they didn't care or a VT (in which case it was still a better lynch than one that leads to a TPR claim).

Obviously ot was a mistake but one that paid off anyway, so I'm not sorry.

Hint: You better amuse me, cuz I actually typed the vote then decided not to put you @L-1 now

This is hard to believe. A townie (playing invs style) could put themselves at L-1 regardless of PR or VT, so it is a weak excuse here. For someone who took the time to deliberate voting me, it seems awfully convenient to slip accidentally on the invs wagon for the town cred. Invs was 90% sure to be lynched at that stage anyways ... a bit of LAMIST.

Trust me, if I was scum with him I would've instructed him to claim COP to bait a CC before we lynched him.

[AP]

Also, if I was scum with him I'd know the vote count already.

[AP]

ROTFL. Now I

demand

to be referred to as "the airhead" or something similar for the rest of the game.
My first impression when I saw the avi was "Why is the already lynched guy still posting"

I SWEAR IT'S TRUE! An I don't even know why. I mean, the avatars of the two aren't even similar!!

This post rubs me the wrong way. You had no way of knowing his alignment so why would you be surprised that he's posting post-hammer? Townies post after the hammer all the time to release information that they hitherto were keeping close to the chest.

Dude, the post I'm quoting has been done TODAY (i.e. after both the Invis and the ruru flips)

[AP]

A town JK could also protect ruru, and it is an option (though not as ideal as a doc). You could have flagged the possibility of that?

Oh, you got me! I actually picked JK and when I didn't get it I knew ruru was the one who beat me to it. Happy now??

I mean, seriously, mate. If you're going to point a finger at least make a reasonable case, and don't just talk to appear like you're all observant when the observation itself serves no purpose at all.

FTR: JK does NOT target a townie who ended up to be ON TOP OF THE DRAFT, thus guaranteed to have a PR. You just don't block the top of the pile. The Doctor protects w/o blocking, so they would have been suitable to protect ruru and

not

the JK.

[AP]

3. scum don't have pgo/vig + town!pgo and/or town! vig exists (but didn't shoot her) - that would imply that scum thought she was a pgo but decided to risk it on the chance that she wouldn't activate - i think this is kinda unlikely given that scum had just lost a member; i feel like they wouldn't want to take a chance on this.

That's a good point. We've been discussing the matter as if the PGO was a passive ability in this game. It's not. The PGO has to activate on a specific night of their choice, and scum must've figured even if her claim was true she's unlikely to activate on N1. It's a bit WIFOMY, but I see your point.

[AP]

OK.. so assuming Ausuka's town here makes that lynch pool ideal. Even if she is scum (I don't think she is) and is telling the truth about going for Vig/PGO and not getting it means scum would have believed ruru = Ausuka cannot be scum AND killed ruru.

But what if Ausuka did land Vig/PGO and is now gambitting? That would be a very good way to keep the PRs away AND doe her to survive unsuspected for a couple more days.

DISCUSS before we do anything hasty. We are alead already and we don't want to give scum back the grounds that we had won.

[AP]

How does the neighbor thing work? From what I gathered in the wiki, if the neighborizer targets scum, they die. Doesn't that confirm Ausuka as town? It seems that's not the case going by what you guys are posting.

I dunno what you read on the wiki. To me a Neighborizer will only die of targetting scum if they have a Weak modifier attached to their role.

[AP]

Music replaces BuJaber

So instead of reading posts we're gonna hear them now??

[AP]

since he knows Invis doesn't have a night action anyway.

He would have been assigned the KILL, since scum can't use their action AND kill at the same night!

Nice try though.

[AP]

What are you trying to say there, Ceej?

I think he's trying to defame all the slots he can.

[AP]

What are you trying to say there, Ceej?

I think he's trying to defame all the slots he can.

[AP]

I see that AP guy is at the prink of being lynched..

@TW: Let's see if you will take my offer this time. If I get lynched you let me live and I will not shoot you in the next game when I draw scum and you draw town.

So, aside from not liking my gut, why exactly am I today's best lynch?

[AP]

*Sigh*

I'm the bloody Doctor! I was on Sky last night because I also thought scum could fall for ruru's gambit and not target her, so I went for 2nd on draft.

[AP]

*Sigh*

I'm the bloody Doctor! I was on Sky last night because I

also

thought scum could fall for ruru's gambit and not target her, so I went for 2nd on draft.

Can you pls explain the "also"?

Obviously ruru thought they'd fall for it (or she wouldn't have done it)

[AP]

AP how did you know it was a ruru gambit?

Playstyle. I happen to know how ruru plays to a good extent and I know she would not go for PGO/Vig as town to begin with. Her claim though confirmed her as town to me because because scum PGO doesn't claim in my book. The idea is to be a prime investigation target on N1 and then BOOM. Her claim made that virtually impossible to happen, so she was not a scum PGO and certainly not a PGO as Town.

[AP]

Here I read it as he is unsure of Sky being town, yet he protected her?? And then zero comment on the whole neighbour issue?

Ut was the mechanically correct play for me, regardless of my reads. It was N1 FGS, so everything is a pure guess at best.

I did suspect Sky, but

only based on the draft order

(that's the explanation for "I have no scum reads but I would pressure the lower numbers). I didn't SR her

by play

. I thus figured if she was Town she would have been a prime target for the NK if scum did buy into ruru's fake claim. It's as simple and straight forward as that.

Now, if ruru wasn't shot and we had no NKs I would have assumed I saved Sjy, and thus she would be confirmed to me.

If ruru survived and someone else got shot, I would have suspected Sky more because that's where I would have shot if I was scum.

The fact that ruru's gambit failed left me unsure because if scum knew ahe was not a PGO then she indeed is the prime NK target over Sky, so nothing new in terms of my read on Sky there, but the Neighborizer xlaim is confirmed and Sky is Town regardless now.

[AP]

AP being scum would mean AP is most likely RB and scum could have safely killed ruru through PGO without caring about the fakeclaim aspect of that.

I hope I'm misunderstanding what you're saying. Otherwise, you have a big flaw in your mechanical analysis.

A PGO goes first. They kill everyone who targets them except for the likes of a BP assassin or something. In other words, if a RB/JK targets the PGO they would still die before they block the shot(s).

[AP]

Given no town-vig claim, I'm guessing not (b), but we know Sky didn't get blocked...so who did AP RB then?

GOOD question. Assuming I'm a scum RB I would have RB'd someone in the top. That wouldn't be ruru (why block someone you're shooting anyway) and not Sky (she did neighborize Sky). I am willing to bet neither Oka nor Vulcan were blocked either (the only way they would be blocked is if ruru herself targeted either, and I don't see her doing that).

But here's an idea: WHY are we assuming scum NK'd ruru by shooting her? Why not "ruru targeted the PGO who had activated the ability"? I mean, this way both scum

could

use their abilities on N1. The PGO activates and whatever the other role is does what they do.

[AP]

Definitely sure AP is lying tho. I'm not seeing anything at all from him that indicates he's the doctor.

Oh, you wanted me to have a syringe in one hand and a sphygmomanometer in the other with a stethoscope hanging down from my neck??

[AP]

Do you buy the 1 scum (PGO/vig) above Ausuka theory? If so, who do you think is the scum? PGO/Vig?
Any other scum reads?

Let me be honest here: As scum I would have had my team take Role Cop, Cop and Tracker. Not only do these picks deny town any source of substantial info, but they also provide scum with good info (the RC & the Tracker do).

PGO/Vig wouldn't be on my list to begin with.

That said, I don't know how others think and -obviously- people think the Scum RB is a better pick than the JK/Tracker

skitter and Vulcan are playing "too cautiously" for my liking, and especially with their votes, while Oka's unvote could be because scum now know whom to shoot tonight. Let's not forget he put me L-2 and skitter put me @L-1 so I was forced to claim.

[AP]

VOTE: Vulcan

L-2

Vulcan can claim and save us some time

[AP]

WELL DONE, SKITTER!

GGA

Thanks for modding, duckling