Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!


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Post Post #975 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:34 pm

Post by Eragon »

In post 956, the worst wrote:good morning

VOTE: Dunnstral
fun
In post 957, Dunnstral wrote:Go back to sleep ducky you're wrong
spicy
In post 958, Irrelephant11 wrote:hey dunnstral please please post five more times before leaving
each with substantial meaning

it would be v towny of you and also helpful
he didnt do this... what does it mean to you?
In post 960, Dunnstral wrote:I started rethinking Ausuka on recent postings

I think I'd prefer to get Keyser Soze and I think he's been kind of awkward around the Ausuka vs Me Dynamic
can you elaborate on why its "awkward"
and what about Ausuka makes you rethink
In post 962, Nauci wrote:
In post 950, Irrelephant11 wrote:yeah I'm actually pretty interested in a Nauci flip
No you're not
spicy
In post 972, Toranaga wrote:there's nothing creepy about monty python

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Post Post #976 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by Eragon »

In post 915, Dunnstral wrote:UNVOTE: ausuka
In post 960, Dunnstral wrote:I started rethinking Ausuka on recent postings

I think I'd prefer to get Keyser Soze and I think he's been kind of awkward around the Ausuka vs Me Dynamic
ill go deeper on a read tommorow(yes, i know ive said this a million times) but on a surface level, either Ausuka and Dunnstral are SvS and dunn would rather get lynched than ausuka

or dunn is town

because i dont see Dunnstral backing off of his SR on the only other wagon with good traction(Ausuka) if he is scum and ausuka is town. IT just makes no sense from a scum PoV and preservation.

thats only surface level
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Post Post #977 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:58 pm

Post by Eragon »

i go to sleep now
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Post Post #978 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:02 pm

Post by the worst »

nsg's posting is so good when she's posting tho it's just like when she's not.... I worry

is this washed upfulness?
is this a red role pm?
ヽ(`⌒´)ノ
her activity is so low site wide tho
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #979 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:24 pm

Post by Toranaga »

I agree dunn backtracking on his ausuka scumread is towny of dunn, idk what that means re: svs tvs svt or anything. it's a good look for him regardless and I think based off d1 the way dunn shaded ausuka doesn't really happen as a svs interaction at all.
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Post Post #980 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:27 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 972, Toranaga wrote:there's nothing creepy about monty python

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Post Post #981 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:32 pm

Post by Nauci »

Okay sorry for the delay; I've had so many things pop up unexpectedly lately

Spoiler: musings and ramblings and notes and reactions for posts 200-399
- irrelephant - I read that as him accusing you of not being willing to engage with him directly because ???, but if your interpretation is correct then it’s a great catch

-That feel when I realize I forgot during my previous catch up (which happened in several phases/days when I could find time) that e and volxen were already flipped

- Reundo continues to make posts that have the organic town thought processes that would be incredibly difficult for scum to make; I am about as confident about this town read as I was on day 1 skitter in American Presidents; I don’t think I’ve *ever* been wrong on one of my very strong early town reads all the way back to my first newbie game, to the point where I play later days as a matter of convincing my strongest town read of my other town/scum reads

- need to check if town Keyser sheeps like this, so late on a wagon (and something about :twisted: rubs me the wrong way)

- feels like Town Kop based on what little research I did during a recent game; 226 even better. IIRC Kop is less opinionated and less active in his scum games, and certainly not with these sorts of opinions

- etc. I keep being paranoid that scum nsg is sitting in my blind spot or something but no, these posts are almost certainly town nsg (there’s a certain… righteous indignation in the way town nsg writes, and she applies shrewd thinking to details other players wouldn’t ever think of that town nsg has, while scum nsg tends to be very lurky and have more shallow views because she struggles to fake it as scum). My notes app really needs to stop autocorrecting me to “msg” lmao

- the only thing that has troubled my gut scum read of Keyser is the way volxen repeatedly championed his cause lol; it feels crazy that scum would chainsaw this hard on day 1 but that doesn’t seem like a solid argument so much as something I could never imagine doing

- I don’t think I have any chance of reading toranga w/o meta diving :/

-- feels town from Dunn; I think scum don’t question a fast wagon on town OR a fast wagon on scum because it can be an obvious associative, but town with genuine interest in game solving will hit the brakes on a potential early mislynch

- was super paranoid about irrelephant as per usual but I’m leaning town; break down the psychology of my read post catch up. Disagree on Keyser’s vote but obviously I’m “biased” since I’ve seen sesq’s role pm say town

- is so hilariously shallow that I have to dive volxen to see how far he goes into underlying nefarious associations as scum. But this just seems like standard panic-scum BUT THINK OF THE LURKERS

-town reading ausuka because of the timing of her volxen vote

- whaaaaaaaaaaaa? Who :o :o :o Ducky I hate when you bluff secretive knowledge it feels so scummy when you do that; I don’t actually know what you do as town though lmao

- nsg is basically lock town for me at this point

- based on how scum tw has treated teammates in the past, tw being scum with any of those 3 is highly plausible if anyone in the set flips red

- nsg calls e town (pre flip obviously) when the slot could easily have been pushed for mislynch for somewhat weird activity, and far easier than many other players in the game

-/ agreed here

- I like this analysis post though I don’t quite agree

- I feel good about; I’ll give Keyser some room to breathe for the next 200 posts

- totally off topic from what Ausuka is saying but Ghandi used to sleep naked with teenaged women and give them enemas I wish I was making this up

- tbh I have no explanation for my gut feel but this seems like a town post

- is another great post. Reundo is my new Skitter. This post absolutely nailed it and I couldn’t have written up the case on Volxen and his apparent motivations better myself. 392 is also MathDino level

- Huntress is awesome and so were these reads

- based on vc 1.13 I want to say that I don’t know how I feel about the sesq wagon but am going to re-skim for who became complacent/quiet after the cw popped up (sadly, this is most relevant to Volxen)


omg there's a button to add [post] tags I'd been manually typing them for all of my stuff before (though that was on desktop where I wrote them up in Sublime; currently having to juggle back and forth between my laptops and phone via Google Keep so shit's a mess sorry)
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Post Post #982 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:33 pm

Post by Nauci »

I'll finish the next 200 tonight but no promises on the rest sorry
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Post Post #983 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:49 pm

Post by Nauci »

Spoiler: hot takes and notations from 400-599
-400-403 makes me lean town on toranga; swung momentum on volxen more than tw did

-413 oh man I wanted to town lean irrelephant for this but this is also precisely the kind of towny sounding bit that irrelephant can contrive

-reundo did so much of the heavy lifting from beginning to end on volxen I don’t understand how anyone has him in their possible-scum piles

-418 I extremely want to see Irrelephant’s explanation for this one

-419 I like this from dragon

-425 eragon I realize people apparently disagree with me here but from my memory, it’s definitely not how Keyser posts typically and felt off for me

-429 Keyser wat

-430 oh okay

-438 irrelephant I feel like the words you scum read him for in that game were much less meaningful and syntax based, while this is different

-446 lmao volxen I’ve never seen anything that made me want someone lynched as much as this post

-457 lmao ducky

-472 Lordy you younguns have too many Pokémon these days

-491 eragon this is good stuff

-508 is this trying to wifom bait to take reundo down with him? Hmm

-532 irrelephant it depends on how much resistance there was to the wagons, among other factors, IMO

-540 lol toranga. Nobody on this site *except* TW would be enthusiastic like that about bussing d1. But bluffs and extravagantly WIFOM actions are where Scum Worst eats.

-543 the last bit feeds into my pet theory of the POV narrative for Keyser which I’ll explain in my eventual case

-554 it’s like Reundo is presciently pocketing me :o

-564 keyser this is such a weird request I don’t even know how to process this

-567 keyser pls

-582 lol reundo ty but I think I have a surprisingly strong sort just after reading day 1

-583 TW hahahahhaahaa <3

-592 I have to go do some chores but I am salivating to read this case oh gee oh boy

Damnit reundo ARE YOU IN MY HEAD because you said a lot of the stuff I am preparing in my case possibly better than I could have

Like Keyser was unbelievably careful to not interact with Volxen while Volxen was non stop chain sawing. Like it was clearly beyond the point of “woah why are you scum reading this hard it seems implausible” and beyond even “I think keyser is town so I disagree with this read” but fully into actively trying to undermine points against keyser for motivations that make no sense at all. It seemed too ridiculous to be true but since he is a low experience player, it’s not that insane.

It makes no sense to me why keyser wouldn’t call him out on his obsession or, at the very least, blatant attempts to pocket, OR the issues with his posting that town keyser 100% would have called out based on my experience with him. If this was town keyser I seriously couldn’t fathom in the slightest how he doesn’t call out the gross pocketing

Plus, he was voting volxen when it was a good way to not be on the town wagon, but volxen’s had lost steam. But when Toranga threw the momentum back on it and other players joined, it would have been completely weird for him to switch off for almost any reason he could think of at the time, when only maybe 2 players in the game were plausibly lynchbaity and not enough so to explain the move. Giving himself credit for not moving off wagon day 2 was just open wolfing at this point I can’t take this seriously any more lol

I’ll go into more detail later but like literally 97% of Keyser’s posts fit into a completely cohesive narrative of navigating this game as scum Keyser. Like I can build a post by post narration of the thought process I am 96% sure of as of post 543, and will probably take the time to grab some bits from his previous games to round out the thesis.

I am so ecstatic that the player I had declared lock town by his 3rd post (not even jokingly) has thrown down almost exactly the same case that I have been accruing omg. From here on I’m basically searching for the 3rd scum, who right now is plausibly irrelephant to me right now with a couple of other longer shots like TW


Looks like the next 200 aren't that substantive so I might be able to finish catching up tonight? But it's already like 1 AM. I've been sleeping at a normal schedule when the sun is down every day for like 2 weeks now for the first time in literally >5 years but lord am I tempted to fuck that up by deep diving Keyser games until 5 AM like an idiot
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Post Post #984 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:55 pm

Post by Nauci »

Quick and dirty reads list before I head into the 600s

Skitter Tier
:

Reundo - Bellaphant of the ball
nsg - this is so outside of scumsg range and definitely in burned-out-townsg range

You know what? You's alright
:

Toranga
Eragon
Ausuka

Wouldn’t bet on these
:

Dunnstral
The worst

Naughty little boys and well actually just boys
:

Keyser
Irrelephant
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Post Post #985 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:12 pm

Post by Toranaga »

that just feels wrong to me

I'll read the game later but irrelephant and keyser as scum? wow

maybe I'm a dumbass but that's completely opposite to my reads
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Post Post #986 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:14 pm

Post by Toranaga »

is burnt-out-town range nsg not in nsg's scum range?

is she that easy to read?

I mean she a style that's suitable for wolfing, you know

oh well
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Post Post #987 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:19 pm

Post by Nauci »

Everyone who is/was scum reading Reundo: why? tl;dr me?
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Post Post #988 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:20 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 986, Toranaga wrote:is burnt-out-town range nsg not in nsg's scum range?

is she that easy to read?

I mean she a style that's suitable for wolfing, you know

oh well
honestly yeah nsg is really easy to read lol; she just puts in way more effort as town than scum and hate hate hate hates scumming

and this is the most effort I've seen her put into a game in the last several months (there's like at least one scum pt where like her only post is a "why can't I ever roll town" complaint
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Post Post #989 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:21 pm

Post by Nauci »

I was in a newbie game with NSG and have seen several of her town games after that. She escalates towniness with a fury so scumlurking isn't her meta, except that all of her games are relatively low energy right now
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Post Post #990 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:25 pm

Post by Toranaga »

oh ok

I felt she was more effort heavy than this as town but if you say so, I really never played against scum nsg before and only played with town her twice

one of the games she posted so much so hard she was still top poster d3 and died n1

and it was a lot of... meta diving people, making very deep reads

this... I haven't read to any depth, but it's one of those slots where I don't townread anything too hard and I scumread some posts

like when she clears ausuka d1, it's a little hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Post Post #991 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:27 pm

Post by the worst »

like her posting so far has been fine depth wise irs just low on energy which imo is probably like net exhaustion indicative
who's scum? i haven't read up yet but like, it's me
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Post Post #992 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:32 pm

Post by Toranaga »

yeah I'm probably wrong :shrug:

who we lynching then

are we townreading ausuka now?
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Post Post #993 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:32 pm

Post by Nauci »

I realize it was a while back, but just check out this ISO

versus scum nsg:

Subject: Micro 817: Mafia PT
northsidegal wrote:i just want to be town :cry:
replaced out

viewtopic.php?p=10367782&user_select%5B ... #p10367782

Subject: Mini Normal 2024 Mafia Thread
northsidegal wrote:uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuggh why cant i just be town
Shallow reads/lurking into replace out

Subject: American Presidents, the War Room Mafia PT
northsidegal wrote:sigh
lurk then replace out :< :< :<

Man, NSG, I'm sorry about this crap luck rolling scum so many times in such a short time.

I think her town games aren't nearly so high effort right now but, as seen above, her scum games are far lower still.
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Post Post #994 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:34 pm

Post by Nauci »

In 2024 she kinda weighed in a little on a lurker discussion, threw out a town read on me based on previous games/events/discussions, and showed no hint of really reading the thread/thinking about each post, which she definitely does here
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Post Post #995 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:34 pm

Post by Toranaga »

I mean tbh dunn townreading ausuka there can be seem as opportunistic fake towny stuff

I do that a lot as scum in faster games where this won't be read into super hard, like, playing like shit then becoming top wagon and then coming townreading the counterwagon? it's really effective before people know the things you can do as scum

so there's this side of it, but otoh dunn's read there feels a little organic and within reason cause ausuka's posting was probably easily read as towny around those pages
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Post Post #996 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:36 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 985, Toranaga wrote:that just feels wrong to me

I'll read the game later but irrelephant and keyser as scum? wow

maybe I'm a dumbass but that's completely opposite to my reads
I think that I'm only able to come to these reads because I know the two players and read everyone on a narrative/psychological basis. If I didn't, I'd absolutely have them in my town basket because they are very good and very active players who have all the usual hallmarks of town mannerisms.

My case on Keyser will expound on Reundo's but I think I'll hold off on Irrelephant because there's a whole lot more interaction I want to do there to test my hypotheses
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Post Post #997 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:43 pm

Post by Toranaga »

man irrelephant iirc cased the fuck out of volxen d1

it just feels not svs
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Post Post #998 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:48 pm

Post by Nauci »

If you want to see the breadth of Irrelephant's scumrange, read our 17 page scum pt for a 9 player newbie game lol (I was a jerk and lurked out because I also struggle with motivation when I roll scum but fortunately it's been super rare)

He purposely makes typos, very super softly scum reads but then defends me because he's hyper aware of associations and pocketing opportunities, specs out every possible role claim and fake claim and optimal night kill, and cases tons of players in the game thread with such expertise that it carried the lurking of me and all of my replacements through to a flawless victory without ever having to even bus my slot. Everyone swore up and down that he was their only sure town read until the very end, when he backstabbed his biggest supporters lol.

In American Presidents I poked and prodded Irrelephant for like 80 pages before I finally stopped scum reading or being paranoid about him and town read him, but even after that I had to neapolitan check him just to be totally sure (and more importantly to assuage the paranoia that I fed to Skitter early on about Irrelephant). But it does mean I do think I can read him fairly well, and that declaring so actually makes his responses more telling. :o

Irrelephant are you tired of me joining your games and putting you through all this yet
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Post Post #999 (ISO) » Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:53 pm

Post by Toranaga »

nauci is town as fuck
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