Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[ruru]

do you have any completed apathy towngames?

[ruru]

okay whatever I'm afk for the night

I'm not sure if what tw did is really the towntell I think it is, also the evasiveness is fairly pl-worthy

nm seems to be playing his scum meta so far

{skitter, a50 (skitter)} - this is an actual hard tr based on her being out of her scum meta and not a day 1 "oh skitter's presence in this game is +ev" type of thing, I really mean it this time
{vex} - assuming the self-meta is accurate
{a50, enigma}
{gamma}
{ejji}
{bujaber, hws, nm, tw (a50)}
{tw, nm (a50/tw)}

I'm trying out a new readslist format so people can see both my personal reads and aggregate reads in case I'm shot and the people I was sheeping flip red; it should be pretty self-explanatory

[ruru]

please elaborate

[ruru]

doesn't he lurk every game?

[ruru]

also iirc he wasn't posting sitewide when he got force replaced so he was probably just busy

[ruru]

can you explain your tr on tw?

[ruru]

UNVOTE:

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

inno ejji

these flips don't really change my sr on tw, more on that in a minute

skitter and I would both stonewall an a50 lynch and he isn't a wasted shot if he flips vt

and he had decent pr equity (I think he made a point of giving himself high vig equity in particular)

I think the nk makes sense, it's probably what I would do as scum if I had no strong pr reads

[ruru]

I think tw's play has been results-oriented in a tmi way: he expects to deliver us a redflip and then not die as a result, without really scumhunting or doing anything else towny

ceejay wasn't being a valuable scum player in this game and tw is a valuable scum player and a willing busser, even in situations where there's a reason not to bus (such as being the least valuable scum PR and bussing the most valuable scum PR in 728)

ceejay inevitably gets lynched in this game the way he was posting and tw having recently played scum with him can't exactly try to hard defend him

tw has a mysterious meta "obvscum" read on ceejay that he won't explain and that required very little readable content from ceejay (which the absence of such is not scum-indicative for him) and no interaction with his slot to form

every game on ms people assume that scum wouldn't bus because XYZ and every game scum bus

I would really like to see examples of:
a) apathy town tw - which he refused to provide meta of when I asked and this supports the idea of him expecting to just get a free pass for delivering a redflip, which only scum could really be sure would happen
b) sacrificial scum tw - he might choose try to lynch town d1 here as scum but given the scumreads already on him that would probably lead to him never making endgame. I haven't seen sacrificial scum play from tw before, so I'm curious if it's a thing he does at all

because afaik he's currently still in his scum meta and out of his town meta.

back to getting red flips

similar language was used in 728 when he bussed jjh (who was scummy but not lockscum, similar to how ceejay was here) and nsg considered it noteworthy

if a vig exists I just trust the vig not to be stupid. if I could hammer I would :p

this post is disturbingly antitown and tw should know that and I'm not sure if town.tw tries to get the vig killed like this

[ruru]

well, more like he couldn't remember who he replaced; i think he'd know who replaced his partner

it doesn't feel faked to me, idk if i can explain that better

do you think hws is viggable? maybe lynch ceejay vig hws

unless you think we have enough time before ceejay replaces that we should be using that time

I would be down with this

VOTE: Not_Mafia
HURT: the worst

you know what, i think that works for me too

VOTE: notmafia
HURT: duckling

We all agree we’re trying to lynch people whose scumflip can give meaningful associations right? So why NM?

also these two posts don't read like a partner to me it's like he forgot they were even the same slot

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

I don't doubt 1523 looks bad by itself but do you really think he makes both those posts as a partner?

[ruru]

also like realistically what would that gamma post change if he's trying to save his scummy partner

95% of the time it does nothing and just makes him look bad

[ruru]

I would really like to see examples of:
a) apathy town tw - which he refused to provide meta of when I asked and this supports the idea of him expecting to just get a free pass for delivering a redflip, which only scum could really be sure would happen
b) sacrificial scum tw - he might choose try to lynch town d1 here as scum but given the scumreads already on him that would probably lead to him never making endgame. I haven't seen sacrificial scum play from tw before, so I'm curious if it's a thing he does at all

I would really like to see examples of:
a) apathy town tw - which he refused to provide meta of when I asked and this supports the idea of him expecting to just get a free pass for delivering a redflip, which only scum could really be sure would happen
b) sacrificial scum tw - he might choose try to lynch town d1 here as scum but given the scumreads already on him that would probably lead to him never making endgame. I haven't seen sacrificial scum play from tw before, so I'm curious if it's a thing he does at all

[ruru]

also like

I'd feel better if you jumped into the thread with a fucking fake guilty. seriously.

why would you feel good about this when it would result in two town lynches most of the time? this is just kind of a weird thing to say

stop tunnelling me and pay attention to the fact cjv and I were obviously not scum together.

it's not obvious at all and I'm not sure why you would assume that it's obvious here to me

actually fuck it this could be scum. will revisit later

(?)

[ruru]

> cjv then spewed antiassociatives and then flaked from the game because.....?? he didn't like my bus strategy? waht

for that matter this, as a first reaction (8 minutes after your previous post on a different topic) feels scummy also

if you asked me whether I'm a viable ceejay partner or if he spewed antiassociatives with me I'd have to go reread the game because I'm town and I don't read my own associatives with dead scum

[ruru]

also you can't have it both ways: if you want to argue that your interactions with ceejay should clear you, then you can't say that you would never bus him for towncred

[ruru]

like actual clearing interactions are interactions that are unlikely to come from scum because they're {anti-scum, difficult to fake} and I don't see anything like that here

bussing in a game with nightkills and limited town power isn't anti-scum

nothing between you two was difficult to fake; you practically didn't interact with ceejay at all

[ruru]

it's not my job to hold your hand thru my meta
you should not trust me to hold your hand thru my meta if you think I'm scum

why would I ever dignify this with a response? address it at someone who knows me better or dive it yourself?

"link me a game where you've done X" is never an unreasonable request.

[ruru]

elaborate on the first point.

I only remember the cjv reaction because he was giving off "hahahahahahafuck" energy which made me think he was scum even more. I don't catch scum d1 and successfully get them lynched often, sorry for being prideful

like, sure, his reaction was scummy, but from a third person perspective, is there anything about his reaction that precludes it from being svs? how do you think ceejay reacts to scum.you there?

awkwardly non-reacting to your scumread doesn't seem particularly unlikely to be svs to me, especially coming from a low-effort scum player, and especially considering scum might not have daytalk.

I'd feel better if you jumped into the thread with a fucking fake guilty. seriously.

why would you feel good about this when it would result in two town lynches most of the time? this is just kind of a weird thing to say

any thoughts on this?

[ruru]

one question tho: where is your awareness of your history of misreading me?

I mostly townread your posting in 721 except for the mathdino vote I think? and I didn't actually put you in my scum pile for that iirc

I had you as null and then scum during 728

the reason you were lynched in sky's jester nightless wasn't scum equity

and I don't think I've ever pushed a strong scumread on you like this before?

[ruru]

are you looking for a game where I've had a hard time getting / staying engaged?

mostly examples where you've acted like this as town:

idrk what I'm waiting for. just feels like we're succumbing to cliche low energy/charisma lynches and I'm not really seeing anyone I want dead more than the NM slot and everyone is being stupid and using that slot to vigtest when
1) we might not have a vig
2) it might be bulletproof

whatever I actually don't think I'm into this game enough to be upset about being mislynched

not AtE btw. just a heads up I don't think I have the enthusiasm to react to pressure

[ruru]

also games where you've played a sacrificial role on your scumteam

[ruru]

that was george lol I was fred

[ruru]

so, I believe this was the extent to which I expressed a scumread on you in sky's game:

On d1 I was reading tw as anything but jester and George was reading him as mafia and he’s also a difficult lynch in a nightless game and he’s scumreading us

All of which make me want to lynch him more

Acting like an obvious partner is likely to come from jester here. And it’s also less likely to come from last living mafia because they would often get lynched for it d4+.

we do think tw could be scum

george scumread you, I didn't consider you obvtown, and I was actually somewhat paranoid you could be jester

I also just have no issues in general with lynching people who scumread me especially in nightless

[ruru]

also hi alonzo, any first impressions other than a50?

[ruru]

giving awkward reasons for a survivalistic deadline hammer on scum is towny fmpov: town are afraid if it flips green they'll be next, whereas scum know it will flip red

[ruru]

@tw

so, if I'm biased on you, the actual sources of bias are:

- sky ellitell
- I've seen you roll scum much more than random

the former isn't really relevant to my ability to read your slot as a whole because it's a real thing that happened

the latter could cause me to see things as scummy because you did them as scum when they're actually nai

[ruru]

(and that's part of the reason I've been asking for apathy town meta)

[ruru]

Thank mafiajeebus there's no PRs so I can keep yelling at people

possibly relevant, 733 is the most aggressive I've seen tw as scum

tempted to say cjv is our strongest scum play just via being utterly difficult to read. I also didn't factor in that I couldn't immolate as scum this game.

hmm this is interesting, actually this weakens my sr

[ruru]

I find it weird that ruru is able to push tw for bussing cjv which seems rather reachy. Like I don't think tw is obvtown here by any means, but I don't think the way he pushed cjv was scum-indicative. It only makes sense if you go into it thinking 'what would tw do if he repped into a scum slot' it doesn't feel like the correct order of thoughts. Unless ruru genuinenly looks at that and says oh that looks like bussing. If someone other than tw did the same thing would you also think they're bussing ruru? At least then I could understand. Just feels like an awkward attempt at bussing and if he is as good at it as you say I'd expect a smoother attempt.

so, if you don't want to read my posts, it's a combination of:

- sky ellitell
- tw not playing like his town meta
- tw making generally scummy posts
- tw making posts that remind me of his scum meta
- tw making posts that remind me of his bussing meta (results- rather than process-based scumhunting)
- {tw, cj} interactions not being particularly clearing
- cj being a disposable scum slot; if he kept playing like that, he would've earned a pl anyway
- tw being familiar with cj and so he might feel like he's expected to read the slot correctly eventually anyway

none of these things should be taken alone

Also coming from the same person the gamma tr is weird. You are prone to believing that scum!tw had this elaborate bussing strategy, but don't believe scum!gamma could fake forget his partner? Particularly someone who flaked from the site and wasn't talking much he's easily forgettable for real even.

there's nothing elaborate about bussing d1

I don't really consider gamma's interactions clearing either for the record, I just think they're less likely to come from a partner and I already have a weak tr on gamma

[ruru]

1588

I feel like scum probably wouldn't make these posts together and that the inconsistency in treatment of a scum slot is something scum would be super self-aware about and it's much more likely to come from town who isn't paying much attention to the game and possibly even forgot ceejay and nm were the same slot

[ruru]

*shrug*

do your thing, I'll stop posting about you

[ruru]

I don’t see how this equals me forgetting who’s in the same slot
Was ceejay interacting with the other slots in a meaningful way?

I feel like scum would be hyper-aware of their partner's existence and try to fake a progression from "I would be down with this" to "why this low info lynch?"

it's more to do with that and less to do with whether or not ceejay and/or nm were low info lynches

I don't necessarily think you actually forgot they were the same slot, hence "it's like he forgot"

[ruru]

[ruru]

VOTE: Alonzo

[ruru]

Though I'm more that HWS wouldn't replace out as scum.

I don't think replacing after being told to replace or die is town-indicative

[ruru]

everyone's so uninterested in doing stuff that it's rubbing off on me.

[ruru]

okay, so

the worst is not happening because skitter is waffling

let's try this

anyone not naked voting alonzo with me can be scum with alonzo.

[ruru]

I have solved the game

three scums in {alonzo, gamma, bujaber}

[ruru]

Just vote alonzo

[ruru]

How are me and Ejji a team here skitter?

do you think this pairing should be particularly unlikely from a third person perspective?

do you have reads?

[ruru]

i know that you probably meant this in jest and that it's rvs but i think this is slightly more likely to come from scum tbh

yet you don't opt to end rvs by voting me?

i mean, i think we're out of rvs at this point

why should i have voted you there?

Because from your point of view I'm more likely to be scum than ruru at the moment

A50/ruru/Creature/skitter/vex feel town imo

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=77029

[ruru]

[ruru]

What can I say that would make you care about winning

[ruru]

that post is in spirit addressed to like half the players here I'm not intending to single you out by the way

but like, yes, I think you should read the pt and draw your own conclusion since it involves two players in this game.

[ruru]

skitter's posts in that pt are

super

pockety

skygazer should have been paranoid here

I would expect something, anything other than a couple of questions and then "skitter feels town"

[ruru]

(but yes I'm pretty sure skitter is just town in this game)

[ruru]

that post is in spirit addressed to like half the players here I'm not intending to single you out by the way

but like, yes, I think you should read the pt and draw your own conclusion since it involves two players in this game.

*blinks slowly*
you realise I've had to be coy and aware of that for ages right

aware of what?

[ruru]

skitter's posts in that pt are

super

pockety

skygazer should have been paranoid here

I would expect something, anything other than a couple of questions and then "skitter feels town"

@bujaber does this affect your read on her slot at all?

[ruru]

Why or why not?

[ruru]

Hi I'm ruru I normally teach math but I'll be your substitute English teacher for today.

[ruru]

Please write at least one page, double-spaced, thanks.

[ruru]

Alonzo you didn't do your homework

[ruru]

@ofrhz gamma is due for prodding

[ruru]

I just still don't know how someone who puts that much effort into trying to win (she really stepped up as soon as she felt comfortable ausuka was town, their analysis of setup was really good, and she continued to try and utilize her neighborhoods), can roll scum and switch the attitude around completely.

what does this have to do with her alignment though?

like, replace the word "scum" with "town" in your sentence and we get this:

I just still don't know how someone who puts that much effort into trying to win (she really stepped up as soon as she felt comfortable ausuka was town, their analysis of setup was really good, and she continued to try and utilize her neighborhoods), can roll town and switch the attitude around completely.

do you think it makes more sense for her to not try as town after trying hard as town than it does for her to not try as scum after trying hard at town? if not, why do you think she's town?

[ruru]

btw, at least some of her lack of effort was definitely for out-of-game reasons (she

was

busy, and we had a long twilight in jester nightless that she was modding)

but I'm trying to evaluate the content she

did

post and it doesn't really match what I think she would be feeling as town

[ruru]

this is the only scum.sky meta I've read

viewtopic.php?t=76645&f=51&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

[ruru]

maybe it's just bujaber+tw

[ruru]

I find it weird that ruru is able to push tw for bussing cjv which seems rather reachy.

why is bussing reachy there and not bussing reachy here?

[ruru]

I'm fairly confident we've had a wagon on at least one scum today and the fact that the game is just stalling seems to point to scum not wanting to bus

[ruru]

tw apparently isn't an obvious lynch either.

[ruru]

I think tw is more likely to make endgame right now than ceejay was to make endgame even before tw claimed a guilty

[ruru]

yes, both of those are things that scum do.

[ruru]

yes, both of those are things that scum do.

So how did you decide it was scummy for tw to do it then?

If both options are things scum would do how do you determine when it's actually AI?

I believe I have several posts on this subject

[ruru]

let's talk about this:

That is more indicative of there being a wagon on scum right now.

If everyone, town and scum alike, are posting very little scum cannot bus and risk a quick hammer from the absent townies. They cannot aggressively push the counterwagon because as soon as a mislynch occurs the other player would be a prime suspect.

so, suppose this implies gamma is scum because your vote is there so I assume you mean him

the counterwagons of tw and alonzo have basically been aggressively solo pushed by me; one of them must be town

do you think scum would be displaying support when I push town?

[ruru]

@Alonzo can you give one-word reads on {tw, bujaber, gamma, ejji, enigma}? just post them asap if you can and explain later

[ruru]

Yes but when I read them earlier I got the impression it was specific to TW. Now that you are presenting it in this way it contradicts that notion. So it's not clear to me anymore why you thought TW was scum if this is a general thing that scum would do in that scenario.

scum sometimes bus and sometimes don't bus; calling either option reachy or implausible is odd without supporting evidence

my scumread on tw is specific to tw and his posting and not based on "ceejay was probably a bus so I picked someone random on his wagon"

[ruru]

Not without some town support first. One vote is not a wagon.

*shrug*

people have been voting with me

what do you think of their votes?

[ruru]

Even if I accept that you would scumread two opposite behaviors in the same game

I still don't understand why this is a thing

[ruru]

also, I don't really particularly read you as a duckling partner but I wanted to see what would happen

I'm thinking alonzo is probably actually just scum

[ruru]

SKOTTER

v/la is scummy so please stop being v/la.

love,
ruru

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

@skitter that’s probably because idk what to think either
The only think keeping me from replacing out is me being dedicated to see this game through
I honestly wouldn’t mind being lynched but I still won’t take it lying down

zzz actually I don't like this

[ruru]

why is everyone so hard to townread in this game

[ruru]

gamma, how are you reading bujaber now?

[ruru]

[ruru]

it would be pretty pointless for me to towncase my pred

wOlfY

[ruru]

can we focus on the game or

This is actually so bad

reading your slot is important to the gamestate and I don't know why you would write this as town

it's also all talk because you're not scumhunting, half your posts are talking about what you don't feel like doing or things you plan to do but aren't doing yet or just plain not doing (like providing the self-meta I asked about)

[ruru]

are you looking for a game where I've had a hard time getting / staying engaged?

mostly examples where you've acted like this as town:

idrk what I'm waiting for. just feels like we're succumbing to cliche low energy/charisma lynches and I'm not really seeing anyone I want dead more than the NM slot and everyone is being stupid and using that slot to vigtest when
1) we might not have a vig
2) it might be bulletproof

whatever I actually don't think I'm into this game enough to be upset about being mislynched

not AtE btw. just a heads up I don't think I have the enthusiasm to react to pressure

also games where you've played a sacrificial role on your scumteam

[ruru]

I'm asking about the opposite of bussing meta: games where you forced through scum agenda and got yourself lynched to set up your teammates to endgame

[ruru]

the reason I'm asking is that my impression so far of your scum meta is that you generally try to endgame as scum, even when it's not optimal strategy

the ceejay bus was probably a necessity given that playstyle and given the slot you replaced into, which is one reason why I don't townread it at all, but meta might soften my stance here

[ruru]

I have deleted a few posts here that referenced an ongoing game. -ofrhz

[ruru]

I just clicked on schadd in your egosearch, my bad

[ruru]

What

[ruru]

... how are you asking about being pocketed by someone you're crossvoting?

[ruru]

hi!

oh and @irrelephant @alonzo please give a hypo-inno as detailed here (after you finish reading the game, if you haven't done so yet):

Thing B

1. Please read this if you haven't

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... (by-Yates)

2. We're doing it starting tomorrow

And I'm policy lynching you if you don't, even if you're a cute baby monkey!

3. We're doing it right

How to pick cop/hypocop targets:

• Unlikely lynch
  
• Unlikely nightkill
  
• Useful if town
  
• Dangerous if scum
  
• Hard to read

DO NOT TRY TO LYNCH YOUR HYPO-INNO

GC can give false negatives but if you think someone is lockscum such that you will read them as scum PR or traitor despite a GC inno, you probably shouldn't be copping them which means you probably shouldn't be hypocopping them

Occasionally hypoclaiming "either I was roleblocked or I investigated a dead player" is also worthwhile as it could happen to the real GC (and scum don't know who was roleblocked anyway)

[ruru]

d1:
lots of bad setup spec

skygazer hypo-traitor-claims her scumteam and lurks/shitposts, some people think it's scummy but her wagon dies out

skitter/ruru tvt for a while
a50 acts lynchbaity and gets some questionable votes on him
vex/a50/skitter/ruru eventually elected townbloc

I try to policy lynch frank(ejji(you)), not really strongly scumreading him, get spooked by how easy lynching him seems

Sky ellitells, interest in lynching renewed
tw replaces sky, gets tunneled by me+skitter
tw pushes ceejay, a50 agrees ceejay is scum, ceejay gets lynched

half the game flakes out

a50 shot

d2:
nothing happens

[ruru]

Guys you know how hypo innos are a thing?

Why don't we do hypo scum teams? If I'm the traitor then my partners are ruru and A50 pls dont crosskill me guys

[ruru]

my towncase on enigma is basically that he looked like scum last game and made weird posts and he was town

and he looks less like scum in this game so he's probably town unless he has opposite meta

it's mostly gut/tone things and other players being scummier

[ruru]

can we prod BJ

His vote on A50 is useless and I want to see where he puts it and why by EOD

fairly anti-associative with cj

Wow BuJ thanks for the huge wall of text dedicated to me.
1. I steal page tops because its fun and would gladly do it as either faction
2. I can't make reads in the first 24/48 hours of a game ... in general my D1 play sucks
3. I'm very special thanks, so I can have all the RVS votes I want

towny last line (and last game showed he

does

rvs vote for like a week as town)

[ruru]

also I think the worst could have bussed ceejay, I have a lot of posts about it

viewtopic.php?p=10449639#p10449639

also in whatever assumptions underly your vca I would also note that hws slot flaked and wasn't playing the game when ceejay was lynched

[ruru]

Postcounts tell me skitter/ruru/the worst/vex are town

activity tell doesn't work on the worst

[ruru]

-I'd say "his vote on A50 is useless" could easily be said by a scum partner

it's in the context of the post asking for a prod that I think it's towny but actually I just reread the thread and "BJ" is bujaber so nvm lol

enigma is still gut town to me

I don't think the worst should be given lynch immunity 4ever for getting the scum slot lynched, but I see no reason to assume bussing is what happened. Town got a red slot flipped d1, so I'm going to assume for this game day that most high-functioning high-posting players are town in comparison to the rest of the playerlist, because a tw/skitter or ruru/vex team (or whatever combo you like) could probably have had any lynch they wanted

ceejay only got lynched because a50 was also hard scumreading him and he was like universally nullscumread and I thought his reaction to tw's scumread was also scummy

tw was not townread enough to just push through whatever no matter how many posts he made

Not sure why you're bringing up the fact HWS was absent during scum lynch

I just meant that if you're making assumptions like "scum would have piled on the wagon of their doomed partner" then hws couldn't have done so because he flaked from the game

[ruru]

I also think there's a strong motivation for tw to bus because both by meta and his own admission he doesn't play scum self-sacrificially even when it's optimal strategy to do so, and he was basically set to get lynched d1 or d2 before the ceejay flip

[ruru]

who plays scum self-sacrificially what

I mean that in his position as scum I'm probably doing whatever to get town lynched d1 and claiming a guilty on town d2

but tw kinda plays scum like a survivor so I don't know if him pushing ceejay is actually town-indicative

[ruru]

We could just lynch bujaber, I feel like he posts more as town

[ruru]

the d1 bujaber wagon was short-lived and unsatisfying.

[ruru]

VOTE: bujaber

[ruru]

alonzo I think is probably town pending another metadive

[ruru]

i don't especially scumread bujaber, but i'm not particularly against wagoning him to see if that'll help move the game out of this complacent/stagnating state tbh; my alonzo vote didn't really accomplish anything

VOTE: bujaber

okay for the record I feel like this is a way to guarantee your vote

actually

doesn't accomplish anything

[ruru]

gamma, thoughts on bujaber please

[ruru]

Who's scum

[ruru]

your progression on enigma feels kinda scummy, like you questioned a bunch of his posts before but never actually called him scum until he's getting pushed now

[ruru]

Enigma has felt lurky, I'd forgotten h was in the game until someone else mentioned him and he seems to have slipped back away.

like I'm not sure how I feel about this kind of mention of enigma in your iso now that I reread it

[ruru]

I could see that being svs actually, maybe all my reads are just wrong

[ruru]

(source?)

[ruru]

I feel like your posting didn't show any interest in actually lynching him

[ruru]

like you were on the a50 wagon that was never happening so why not just sheep creature there if you thought he was scummy?

[ruru]

Also his comment about the vig at EoD1 felt vig baity.

my issue with this is kind of the opposite for the record

it's that if there's any individual agency in the vig shot, scum will have an easier time vighunting - they get to base it off of both players' scumreads and also off of which players in the list might gt and ignore the vig plan

even if the vig

does

shoot tw it's still leaking information that the players who might have ignored the vote are less likely to be vig

also that the shot could hit a PR or whatever, probably not a big deal in this particular setup

anyway my vote on him at eod was like a kneejerk policy thing

I can see him doing it as town but it's really highly policy lynchable and slightly scummy too

[ruru]

speaking of which,

HURT: the worst

I think this is correct regardless of how people are reading tw; if a vig exists, he's probably scum

[ruru]

tw's posting on this page is weird but I don't really think it makes him a bp goon

like he's just talking about optimal play and I do think it's optimal because bp goon is just objectively unlikely to exist compared to traitor or even roleblocker

[ruru]

zzz maybe tw is town

[ruru]

tw do you fake townslips as scum?

[ruru]

actually I don't know if that makes him not traitor but I feel like it's kind of unlikely to be written by someone with pt access 6 minutes after my post here

[ruru]

plans to solve the game:
- [redacted]
- [redacted]

I can only devote time and energy to one maximum which should it be

[ruru]

I veto Enigma

you don't have veto power and even if you did I don't think you should be using it now

[ruru]

I was writing up a reads post and there's actually nobody I want to lynch today we lost

[ruru]

like, I want to lynch bujaber because I have no reasons to not want to lynch him but at the same time he's like v/la half the time and maybe he would be obvious town if he wasn't

[ruru]

so, I feel like the viable lynches are {gamma, bujaber, enigma} and enigma is a questionable lynch

I prefer bujaber to gamma because I think he's towntold less

[ruru]

gamma reminds me of a slightly scummier version of blackstar in 728, who was town, and while I do think some of his posts are individually

scummy

(like his interactions with enigma) I think the overall attitude of "whatever I'm not even reading the game" is more likely to come from town and it was nsg's stated reason for townreading him in that game

[ruru]

I don't really recall blackstar having individually

scummy

posts in 728 so the comparison isn't exact but his treatment of enigma today is also pragmatically survivalistic in a way that town can also be

[ruru]

actually I don't know if that makes him not traitor but I feel like it's kind of unlikely to be written by someone with pt access 6 minutes after my post here

i don't super follow how this conclusion follows from the beginning, but either way there may or may not be daytalk; we don't know

to clarify, I think it's a townslip if it comes from groupscum because on groupscum's mind would be the pre-game discussion which only had two players

I think groupscum are highly unlikely, over the course of 6 minutes, to fabricate a post talking about there being three players in pre-game discussion when they also have to fabricate the rest of the post and are probably thinking about other things and it wasn't a

planned

townslip

traitor on the other hand doesn't have two players in pre-game discussion on their mind because they never saw it so maybe they just make that post by accident

[ruru]

so, I'd like to treat it as a gc inno on tw or something

I still really want tw lynched at some point if and only if our 2nd scumflip is groupscum

irrel definitely tries hard as scum but I think he's decently towny in this game independently of my inno

{skitter}
{korina, alonzo}
{enigma, irrel discounting mechanical things}
{gamma}
{bujaber}
{tw discounting mechanical things}

- korina needs to post more
- if I'm shot and skitter lurks for the rest of the game, she's scum

[ruru]

I mean, he'd have read the thread after replacing in and saw that there were only two slots posting there

like the way pregame works would still be present in his mind as groupscum meaning unless he was specifically trying to townslip then any thought process he fabricated would probably start with the assumption of there being two scums in the pt

[ruru]

enigma is a questionable lynch

what's the question

Also your reasons for wanting to keep Gamma over BuJaber are weak imo

*shrug*

it's naturally going to sound weak because I'm sheeping the thought process of a player who's stronger than me from another game in a different context and I may or may not be misapplying her process because I'm a weaker player and don't fully understand it but I feel like nsg would not lynch gamma here and it's making me not really want to lynch gamma

and the question on enigma is that I think a lot of the scumreads on him are incredibly superficial (like for things like active-lurking that he also does as town, or based on out-of-context vca with implicit assumptions I don't agree with)

[ruru]

I'm willing to vote enigma today if you can show me he has opposite meta and he just looks completely innocent and "guile-less" as skitter would say as scum but I don't regard that as super likely and so I think my time is probably better spent reading other people's meta

[ruru]

okay so there's also another meta reason I'm scumreading bujaber but I don't want to say it right now

[ruru]

okay so there's also another meta reason I'm scumreading bujaber but I don't want to say it right now

Why not?

because he might invalidate or reaffirm it without me disturbing his behavior

[ruru]

I feel like the d1 lynch was mostly negotiated/decided by me/skitter/a50 at deadline and vca isn't going to reveal much more than that

for example, a50 didn't vote nm on policy but he was scumreading the slot

if a50 had townread the slot the lynch would never have happened

[ruru]

So scum like almost definitely bussed? Which is already the conclusion to make when they shoot off wagon...

like calling a50 "off wagon" is just misunderstanding how d1 went down.

[ruru]

started

W A L L
O F
W I F O M
A N D
S E L F
M E T A

this is an odd response

I feel like 2136 was pretty town, somewhat reminiscent of zoronos in 728

also it's not wifom that he's posting more than he'd have to as scum on an anonymous alt

[ruru]

except that he constantly blurts that lurking is his scum meta?
?_?

I think that's the definition of WIFOm

why are you so scummy

[ruru]

like, first of all, I'm pretty sure you've heard nsg's "self-meta is a towntell" lecture?

let alone accurate self-meta, let alone outing your main and asking to be metaed

if someone like you or a50 or whoever is using self-meta then obviously I'm not going to just call you town for it but like I don't understand how you can possibly hold the viewpoint that korina's entire post is wifom

[ruru]

maybe tw should also be lynched in lylo if we don't have a 2nd scumflip

[ruru]

maybe tw should also be lynched in lylo if we don't have a 2nd scumflip

Why all the conditionals?

because I don't think he's groupscum so a traitor flip is a bit clearing

[ruru]

okay, speaking of lylo, before I forget: if it ever becomes clear that there's no living roleblocker or vig and the game is still in evens and I'm dead, please no-lynch.

[ruru]

random number generation

[ruru]

Lynch bujaber

[ruru]

I'm not totally sure abt Buj he feels like.. uncareful

interestingly I got the opposite feeling

[ruru]

Maybe we should just lynch gamma

[ruru]

whatever it's time for this.

VOTE: Gamma

[ruru]

my case on gamma is that he has okay scum equity and that he should be policy lynched for copping me.

I think it’s slow but bound to get something done right eventually

he's also done a few things that seem outside of blackstar-tell territory and this post is one of them

[ruru]

- Innoing me is anti-town because I'm easy to read
- Innoing me is pro-scum because it keeps all viable mislynches open to scum.you
- I'm really tired of this game where nobody is trying and right now I care more about winning future games by setting a precedent of being more likely to out cops who investigate me than about the 0.5% ev gained in this game by pushing bujaber instead of you because I really have no idea who scum is which pretty much means it's just time to policy lynch someone in the poe pool
- [redacted]

[ruru]

I'm townreading enigma

[ruru]

Also you're scum

[ruru]

Korina vote obvscum gamma please

[ruru]

v/la is scummy xd

v/la is scummy xd

v/la is scummy xd

v/la is scummy xd

v/la is scummy xd

[ruru]

mwnn+skitter+bujaber scumteam

[ruru]

Get me out of this game

[ruru]

inno alonzo

[ruru]

Look again at the D1 EOD vc. If Gamma was scum, all but three votes were on scum - and 2/3 of those votes were the two people being wagoned -- and the third was the nightkill! It just seemed really really unlikely and I'm bothered by how ruru discredited my point there

you'll need to explain this without "look at this it's so unlikely" (tw and jjh were scum in this game) unless you have statistics to suggest it is actually any less likely than the other options or statistics to suggest that I should just sheep your reads without question in general

[ruru]

so, funny story, when I started a super random push on gamma which I phrased in the most honest and non-rhetorical manner possible, I expected him to fight it if he was town

I wasn't sure if he was actually the lynch

then he just kind of blew it off and went to go post in other games

[ruru]

Not to be rude but I think your nsg thing sounds weak because it is actually just too weak to use here
At least if you want anyone to agree with you...

zzz

no more criticizing the gamma lynch please and if you wanted enigma to happen you should've read the game first.

[ruru]

I'm okay with lynching town in a setup with nightkills if they're going to play like that and it's higher ev than lynching someone who's slightly more likely to be scum, but won't fight their lynch as town, and that's just the reality of the nightkill being an overpowered ability

[ruru]

anyway I will be ISPing for now

[ruru]

If you think that linked game is somehow similar to what I am talking about you will have to show me, step by step, how it's similar at all.

My point here is that A50 would have to be the ONLY townie not voting scum at EOD1 if Gamma were scum (and then be the nightkill!!). That just. isn't. likely. It's obvious why - and the point bears out, Gamma flipped town. I'm not even asking for towncred here, I'm just expressing annoyance and you're telling me I'm wrong -

No I'm not

, he flipped town!

mafia is a game of randomness and incomplete information and one result does not prove or disprove a method

in a game theory sense vca gives no information at all; it's an exploitive line that relies either on general scum voting tendencies or specific players' meta-tendencies and it's not obvious to me at all why your point of view would be correct.

it's possible that you just know more than I do (which is why I'm asking if you either have statistical evidence of your ideas about vca or statistical evidence of your reads being extremely accurate)

[ruru]

"Well, it was his fault, not mine" is not a towny response. town says something like "huh wonder what other reads I've got wrong" or "I guess that flip means ___ is maybe scum"
Here you're answering the "why did ruru push a townie's lynch" pre-emptively, no one had asked it

it might just be I'm annoyed with you here but I'm seriously scumreading your entrance to this day
I've also thought since ISOing her that ruru could maybe actually be traitor

you're probably just annoyed with me.

[ruru]

Not to be rude but I think your nsg thing sounds weak because it is actually just too weak to use here
At least if you want anyone to agree with you...

zzz

no more criticizing the gamma lynch please and if you wanted enigma to happen you should've read the game first.

Wow this is freaking rude and ignores how I've ISO'd most players and read most of the game
Like I did a crap ton of work for replacing in ~pg 70, somewhat close to deadline, and you're basically saying "Your read wasn't better than mine because you did the work or had good arguments," [sidenote: I

super

did both of these things] "it was just random, and also it's your fault he was lynched because you weren't around during sitewide v/la"
Is your goal here to antagonize me????
I'm so mad rn

so, I'm still net townreading you for both mechanical and play reasons, but shading my position on the gamma lynch after making 2139 is just really bad

if you don't want gamma lynched then realistically you should probably agree with my nsg defense (or say nothing) whether or not you think it makes sense and there is absolutely a scum motivation to make me doubt my main reason for townreading gamma without looking like you want gamma lynched

[ruru]

I have neither, except to say that I have never once seen a town so coordinated as to have 9/10 town voting scum d1

but this is fallacious:

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

the reason I've been blowing off your ideas about vca is that I don't feel like they're considering the full context of the game and the political situation that led to one thing happening or another rather than just looking at votes

[ruru]

I don't

also sorry for that post then, I didn't remember that was the order of events

[ruru]

I obviously don't feel that scum were successfully pushing town lynches on d1 and that's different than town functioning highly.

[ruru]

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

"I picked a random number, and it was 12349085"
"the odds of that are extremely low, I don't believe you"

[ruru]

Skitter who are we lynching

also like, mechanical things aside, have you thought about the possibility that enigma is scioness from pick your poison and we just saw him play an extremely scummy game as a tpr where he almost got mislynched and now he's townier than that game but he also isn't doing much that's hard for scum to fake or stepping on any feet and then he just randomly flips scum

like I've been fighting an enigma lynch because people's reasons for scumreading him are awful but he could actually just be scum by poe and gamma flipping town is kind of leading me there too

I need to actually sort bujaber somehow?

tw is still probably scum but I still don't want to lynch him while a traitor flip could still happen

[ruru]

Lynch the worst

[ruru]

oops I'm supposed to be ISPing today

bye everyone.

[ruru]

VOTE: bujaber

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

VOTE: ofrhz

I heard her move during the night.

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

Lynch the worst

[ruru]

Ugh

so, gamma being mislynched is probably a loose indicator of his reads being accurate (not necessarily enigma though, maybe just the worst) and me not being shot is probably a loose indicator that I'm wrong about at least one of {tw, bujaber} or that I have an inno on scum because creature was being useless and his reads on both lynches were wrong.

I think out of all the players gamma was sheeping my case on tw most and I'm hesitant to drop enigma down to lynchable just based on gamma's reads when it's quite possible he was lynched for that reason too.

it's definitely possible that skitter and I have a positive feedback confbias loop on enigma; we've done this before, but I still think it's more likely he's just town. nothing about his posting seems scum-indicative (compared to his town meta) to me and I would expect someone who hasn't played scum in a long time to be more nervous and exhibit more scumtells in a game with people he just played with.

I kind of wanted to roleplay nsg and just lurk and see what happens rather than pushing stuff today to try to figure out if I'm just wrong about everything but I'm not nsg and I feel like I need to interact with the game and I'll feel like a gamethrower if I do that and it doesn't lead to a win so whatever I will be actually playing the game now

[ruru]

so, I still think bujaber is scum

bujaber is regularly a highposter as town and even excluding the replacement and v/la timings his posts per day are just lower than expected and it feels like he's not really doing much

despite this, other people who also weren't doing much (gamma/enigma) had much more shade thrown on them which makes me think it's a scum agenda thing.

oh, and I guess gamma also attempted to cfd bujaber d1 so there's that

Spoiler:

Can't blame skitter for just sheeping.

Took a long time for y'all to see it.
VOTE: gamma
L-1

this is a scummy post

the bolded doesn't sound like town talking to a scumread

I feel like tw should be easier to townread by now. I'm getting paranoid because imo his strength lies in knowing how to not appear scummy moreso than trying to look townie. That's my impression from giyga's curse. He won because people didn't really have a reason to suspect him.

this post is dubious

I guess something along these lines:

{Creature, me}
{Vex}
{A50, skitter}
{Ruru, TW}
-----null line----
{Gamma, cjv}
{Enigma}
{HWS, Frank}

Lol who puts themselves in their own readlist

Did I hit a nerve?

this feels like an over-acted response, he had also called enigma a policy lynch iirc and enigma's post isn't scummy at all

it reminds me of some of the fake scumhunting I did as scum where I just threw shade on things in a way that isn't useful to sorting people

[ruru]

being wrong and not winning != gamethrowing imo

gamethrowing is doing something dumb like lolvoting in lylo

gamethrowing isn't 'i was wrong on this read and helped lynched him'. it might be a reason for a loss but it's not a gamethrow

I meant if I roleplayed lurk-nsg and then also didn't solve the game by doing so then the combination would be gamethrowing because non-interaction also leads to other people producing less content

[ruru]

there are a couple townish things bujaber did:

Sounds like you need a flip.

I guess my point boils down to you have a big scum pool that seems awfully coincidental. It seems strange that almost all of them are on the same wagon and one of them is the player being wagoned.

And then you're townpool in comparison is small but all of them are off the wagon with the exception of the IC.

So it's like you created a line that is gamma. But that would make sense if you townread gamma but you don't.

I know you didn't claim to arrive at that pool

because

we're voting for gamma, so that's what makes it strange. If it were for that reason it'd be natural to get the playerlist divide that you ended up with. But you seemed to end up with it completely independently and I guess I found it a weird coincidence and I don't trust coincidences in a game of reads, human intrraction, and deception.

If I trust my townread on you then the logical conclusion is that you are being fooled by one or more of your townreads. Or I am wrong about you and this is a result of you unable to keep up with your lies and fake reads to keep them aligned/consistent. I'd rather play with the assumption that I'm right since it's easier and better for my ego.

this post is one of them

him reading meta is also somewhat townish but I think he's decently tryhard scum and like for example I definitely read meta as scum (including bringing new meta into the game after I saw that other townies were doing it) so basically I have no good reason to tr him either

[ruru]

so basically I expect more town-indicative things from him because his meta isn't like AP meta where he just looks like scum every game.

[ruru]

VOTE: BuJaber
forgot he was here
dats not a gud sign

dfasdfsasdf

[ruru]

VOTE: bujaber

[ruru]

zzz

I kind of just want to lynch the worst even if he's probably not groupscum

I feel like his "I'd rather be lynched before lylo even if you think a traitor flip could clear me" reaction is really traitor-indicative too

[ruru]

nsg would say something like "I've found my scumreads on players who

lack town

to be me more accurate than my actual scumreads" and then she would lynch bujaber and he would flip red.

[ruru]

Did you read the things I called out from enigma when he talked multiple people out of lynching the red-flipped slot the first time, instead suggesting the slot should be vigged? If he knows there's not likely a vig it was a pretty good defense. Even later he kept saying "I'd rather lynch Frank" as the NM wagon built up and he definitely only voted NM after it was inevitable and there was no more time left to get momentum elsewhere

do you think enigma should have known ceejay was scum?

do his posts read like svs?

otherwise, why is this scummy?

I feel like there's multiple times in this post where you say "huh this points to scum!enigma but I'd like to just ignore that", correct me if I'm wrong

I feel that there are still more things pointing pointing to scum.bujaber / scum.tw than there are to scum.enigma.

Also wasn't it you who said either Alonzo or Gamma was likely scum? Why are you ignoring Alonzo now? (maybe it wasn't, but if not, please direct this question in the right direction for me, thanks)

Reads change

He's nulltown to me by posting and I have an inno

also BuJ is definitely getting votes

he was my first choice for yesterday's lynch and it was a vanity wagon.

I feel like his "I'd rather be lynched before lylo even if you think a traitor flip could clear me" reaction is really traitor-indicative too

Please explain why it's traitor indicative

because only the traitor would know they can't get cleared by a flip; town would be actively looking to flip the traitor

I've seen scum make the same type of mistake after fakeclaiming in 2d3 and I think it's super scummy

[ruru]

ruru isn't expecially towny to me at this point, I think her consistent "I don't feel like playing this game/we're gonna lose" attitude (check her ISO, it shows up every game day) is anti-town
At the same time her vote on NM is less buss-y than most, and she has done a fair amount of real work this game to get things sorted

so, essentially, you're scumreading me over a personality clash. I suggest you stop doing that.

@ruru if you want the worst lynched please give me a bulleted list of reasons why because I'm not seeing it, and though my inno isn't like a 100% clear (I don't think those exist in this setup anyway) I really don't get your case on him from an objective pov so I'm not super interested in voting my inno

emotionally, I want to lynch the worst because I have a strong scumread on him and I don't trust this town to lynch him later

intellectually I'm not convinced it's correct because a traitor flip makes him unlikely to be scum and so I'm not going to hard push it because it would be gamethrowing if it turns out somebody else was going to flip traitor first

fwiw, I don't feel like gc/rb/tracker innos don't really change his chances of being scum because I think he's just traitor

my iso has bulleted lists that you can read when I'm dead if you don't want to read them now; in addition to those there are a couple of meta based reasons I can't talk about but I think at least one of them is a fairly strong tell

[ruru]

because only the traitor would know they can't get cleared by a flip

actually I guess technically groupscum might know this too if they recruited traitor

in any case it's scummy

[ruru]

yes, that's what I'm saying

I saw an experienced player fakeclaiming doctor in 2d3 do exactly the same thing and ask to be lynched before lylo or not at all (when a roleblocker flip would have cleared him)

[ruru]

oh, so in other news, we have different options today and I'm not sure which is best:
1. massclaim
2. no lynch, massclaim tomorrow
3. lynch, massclaim tomorrow (if green)

I'm not sure if #3 is that good actually

I tentatively like #1 I think?

[ruru]

like it's possible there are too many innos on lynchable players for us to effectively play the game today and that plus a few other things are making me interested in just massclaiming today

[ruru]

gc/tracker/rb are all almost the same role after a d1 groupscum flip

[ruru]

I guess I didn't talk about it in my post but I think it's implied that a tracker or rb would inno the person they targeted and claim any guilties

[ruru]

I'm not very certain on this being correct play so I'd like to hear from everyone before we do it etc. etc.

[ruru]

In the meantime

Lynch the worst

[ruru]

are you in favor of #2 or #3?

[ruru]

the main issue with no lynch is that if a roleblocker exists it's extremely bad.

Lynching today without a massclaim seems wrong

I'm thinking we should massclaim rb/vig at the very least

[ruru]

(this is not an invitation for the rb/vig to lolclaim right now btw)

[ruru]

Where's korina

[ruru]

Rel/ruru what are your reads on each other rn?

this was answered on like the last page unless you're asking for how I'm reading people post-massclaim discussion in which case I'm not answering yet

[ruru]

VOTE: the worst

[ruru]

ruru you've either given up on appearing competent or you have something you're not saying. fess up.

NSG is being surprisingly incompetent from my pov

[ruru]

I think you're scum trying to discredit my read on you

players better than me agreed 1095 was a scumtell in that game

[ruru]

here's a fun self meta question by retaliation.

why does town you refuse to jam with me and blindly tunnel me for this long? I'm gonna be quite candid, I think there are transparent signs that you do not believe that I'm scum anymore literally in the thread. does this come from town you before scum you?

the reason I'm not telling you my read on irrel right now is that I think it could be a rolefishing question

my response to him scumreading you in response to your scummy soft claim is probably more dependent on whether I believe irrel is a pr than anything else