Secret Hitler (Game Over)

[inspiratieloos]

Well then...

The first vote hasn't even happened yet and it already looks like someone burned down the parliament.

[inspiratieloos]

Haven't really had the chance to read in detail and I haven't played the game before, but it seems to me that even if you do have a voting policy it would be bad to say you have it, especially an 'always no' policy if it's dominant since fascists would just follow it, burn a presidency for no info and get closer to passing randomly.

Then I'm glad we could reach a compromise WITHOUT descending into toxicity (^∇^)

Now for more game relevant thoughts, I am going to initiate working on a little simulation so that we can see the PROBABILITIES of certain outcomes in this game. I desire some form of verification that my mental calculation that 3 red cards is unlikely is accurate! Stay tuned o^_^o

I think it's (11 nCr 3)/(17 nCr 3) =~25% chance of randomly getting 3 fascist cards. So you'd expect it to happen ~1-2 times during the first 5 rounds before reshuffle.

[inspiratieloos]

Why were you against mallow anyway BuJaber? The only thing you noted as far as I can tell is that you were unsure about him, not that you thought he was scum, that does't seem like a reason to disqualify someone in round 1.

[inspiratieloos]

Why not?

Plenty of other people to choose from. A small suspicion that excludes someone is still better than random chance.

Ah, I think you never actually said you were suspicious of him, just that you weren't sure, hence my confusion.

Or did you just have a town read on everyone else?

[inspiratieloos]

This looks a bit like a fascist slip.

（ ಠωಠ）

ANYWAY so YEAH it is blatantly OBVIOUS that mallow and reck are BOTH aligned with the LIBERALS (ﾉ^ヮ^)ﾉ*:・ﾟ✧

I will NEIN all elections with Vijarada and Mitillos, the reads I would TEST are BuJaber and Northsidegal, I have BAD townreads on N_M and NicoRobin for DIFFERING reasons but they are SHAKY at best, and my TOWNBLOC is Reck/Me/Mallow/Inspiratieloos (*•̀ᴗ•́*)و ̑̑

NOT MAFIA whom are you looking at to ELECT?

Not really, for fascist!mallow it would have been pretty bad to pick the fascist policy at this point.

Fascist!Reck seems less likely, he probably would have given mallow FF or LL instead of F/L and no one would be able to prove he sabotaged.

So Reck is likely to be a liberal, mallow could still be either.

[inspiratieloos]

NM made sure we don't have any info on nsg, so we still have 4 unknown players in a row. I'd go with Vijarada or Mitillos.

[inspiratieloos]

I don't think I'd go so far as calling inspi fascist, but I am currently inclined to libread n_m.

It's defenitely arguable both ways what the best liberal play is if drawing 2l/1f, guaranteeing a liberal vs. getting more information, I think in this situation it would have been better for lib!NM to pass 1l/1f for the information and he claims to disagree. There are town motivations for either choice, however looking at it from the other perspective, assuming nsg is liberal, what would fascist!NM have done? Regardless of what he passes, liberal!nsg would play the liberal policy so he might as well give her 2l and deny us the information that nsg played a liberal while having a choice. So NM's actions would have been the same as either liberal or fascist, so this result is not an indication of NM being a liberal.


Anyway, if we're going with electing the most reliable person over electing someone new I agree we should pick Reck.

PEdit: Hey SS, good to have you.

I disagree that there's nothing to read in the first two votes, they show that the fascists either all or all-but-one voted in favour of these governments.

[inspiratieloos]

Inspir or Mitillos IMO. Difficult to read and very good to have as conftown.

I'm the next president I'm not sure whether that makes me a good or a bad investigate target. Mitillos seems like a decent investigate too.

[inspiratieloos]

So, yeah obviously I know BuJaber is a Fascist now but everyone else doesn't know that, so neining whatever I do is the sensible thing.

I'll just wait a day or so to see if anyone has anything relevant to say and then pick a random person.

[inspiratieloos]

So, yeah obviously I know BuJaber is a Fascist now but everyone else doesn't know that, so neining whatever I do is the sensible thing.

I'll just wait a day or so to see if anyone has anything relevant to say and then pick a random person.

this is a pretty muted response to learning that bujaber is a fascist

What else is there to say? This isn't like Mafia or the Resistance where you absolutely have to know people's alignment by the end game. It's basically a 5v3 game now.

[inspiratieloos]

you could give your thoughts on anyone you think is a fascist with bujaber

Vijar seems like a possibility, he's the only person BuJaber expressed suspicion of before so I would have expected an investigate on him if BuJaber was actually a Liberal looking for Fascists.

He also mentioned SS as an alternative to investigating me, which makes me think SS is likely to be a Liberal too.

He voted Nein for the first government and Ja for the second, so probably the first was two Liberals, second could have been that there was a Fascist on it, could also be that BuJaber saw his buddies voted for the first one and fell in line.

N_M and Reck are townreads because they could have burned liberals and lied about it.

Uhm, that's a non sequitur.

Though I agree Reck is likely a Liberal because there are defenitely more pro-Fascist plays he could have made regardless of whether his third card was Liberal or Fascist.

Pick mallowgeno for chancellor

[inspiratieloos]

@S_S: I think Reck and N_M are lib-reads for pretty much everyone. This means that we will be nominating them a lot as chancellors. As such, I would recommend checking one of them, in case they happen to be Hitler playing the long game (like Yoshi did last time). If we get another fascist policy (fairly likely, once the shuffle happens), and then Hitler becomes chancellor, we lose.

We'd have to gamble at some point anyway, might as well investigate an unknown and gamble on someone who is either Liberal or Hitler than investigate a probable Liberal and then have to gamble on someone who could be any of Liberal/Fascist/Hitler.

Also, mallow is probably Liberal too and I'm still not sure how NM passing a Liberal policy when passing a Liberal policy from his position was almost certainly inevitable anyway makes him better than neutral at best.

[inspiratieloos]

Pretty sure we played LLFF so far.

It's an about 6% chance of 6 Fascist policies in a row after the first two turns, assuming everyone was honest, so pretty unlikely.

Also, BuJaber's post seems to me like he expects a Fascist policy, given that there should be three out of five Liberals left in the pile it probably means he expects at least two more were secretly buried. He himself accounts for one, so that would mean there's at least one more Fascist among the other presidents so far.

And Reck is the obvious choice for chancellor.

[inspiratieloos]

There's nothing wrong with nsg, it's just that Reck is actively Liberal.

Picking someone unknown might be good though.

[inspiratieloos]

Here's the thing, if you didn't bury a Liberal it's practically impossible for the situation to even come up, so the fact that you were even thinking about it indicates to me that you did indeed bury a Liberal.

[inspiratieloos]

I'm all for it.

[inspiratieloos]

SS, how likely do you think it is mallow is a Fascist?

[inspiratieloos]

BuJaber, you might want to try pretending you're a Liberal?
Remember, you're saying you buried a Fascist, not a Liberal. From your POV SS should be Fascist and Mitillos Liberal, not the other way around. There's not a single scumteam that makes sense with what you said unless you're a Fascist yourself.

As for Reck's alignment, if he's a Fascist Reck/BuJaber accounts for up to 3 buried Liberals. Any other combination of BuJaber/someone only accounts for up to 2, though that still allows for a Liberal being at the bottom of the pile or there being 3 Fascists among the presidents.

[inspiratieloos]

Pass presidency to BuJaber

I'm liking what I'm hearing from him

Seriously? Even if you don't think he's scum for some reason he's still obviously wrong.

All his arguments either make no sense or only makes sense if written from the knowledge that he himself buried a Liberal card.

[inspiratieloos]

Real life scumclaim?

[inspiratieloos]

Doesn't matter. Point was to have confirmed scum one way or another. Take the investigations for example. I know inspi is a fascist but unless somehow that is proven to everybody it doesn't do me much good.
And no inspi, If SS is liberal then NM or reck could have buried a liberal if they went with hitler or are hitler themselves. I'm not sure about SS's alignment, but I don't understand the Ja votes last round which is the only thing outwardly suspect about him. And how do you know that mallow didn't throw a liberal?

Ah, yes, I completely missed the part where you think that Reck or NM are scum...

No reck we need you and 1 other person we all agree on to be the 2 chancellors that we rotate until the end of the game.

As for chancellor I think we have to hedge our bets and go with NM.

Wait.

That's the problem here, we know there are almost certainly 2 (possibly 3) Fascists in {Reck, NM, Bu, SS, mallow}, with them most likely being among the last three that actually passed Fascist policies. Your play is completely inconsistent with someone who genuinely believes two other people buried a Liberal. You can't at the same time say "I didn't bury a Liberal", "I think Reck and NM are trustworthy enough to make Chancellor" and "SS is likely a Liberal."

Btw, mallow who do you think buried the Liberals if you trust BuJaber enough to make him President?

[inspiratieloos]

It's a game of coin flips. We know for sure that 2 out of NM SS and mallow (or reck but that's very unlikely) buried a liberal. (I don't get how you and SS are coming up with 3 buried liberals if there are 2 liberal policies achieved already and we haven't drawn all the cards yet.
We also know that 1 of SS & mitillos is a liberal.

There are 6 Liberals. Two have been played. NM and nsg are vouching for the third one and there's no sane scenario in which that didn't happen. That leaves 3 Liberals unaccounted for.

There are 0-2 Liberals on the bottom of the deck, the 2 Liberals in the deck scenario is possible but very unlikely, so unless you have very strong Liberal reads on all but one of the Presidents it's not really a scenario that you should be considering in determining the President/Chancellor, which leaves us with 2 realistic possibilities, there's 1 Liberal on the bottom of the pile and 2 people buried a Liberal or there's no Liberals on the bottom of the pile and 3 people (or the specific teams Reck/Bu or Reck/mallow) buried 3 Liberals. (and technically all four Fascists could be among the Presidents if one genuinely got FFF)

So therefore: "we know there are almost certainly 2 (possibly 3) Fascists in {Reck, NM, Bu, SS, mallow}"

I'm not though. You're the one who's been trying to paint me as having hardreads on people when I've been advocating for a more strategic approach which should give us some confirmed libs or fascists.

I'm not pretending you have strong townreads that make you suspicious. I'm pointing out your lack of strong scumreads is suspicious. You're supposed to be trying to find 2-3 scum out of 4 people and somehow end up with 3 quantum townreads (strong enough to suggest them for governments but apparently not 'hard') and a 'no comment'.

I think NM is more likely to be liberal than SS and less likely to be hitler if fascist so after reck he's the safest pick for chancellor. SS we can afford to have as president even if I'm wrong because if he is scum he is forced to play in a way that doesn't conftown mitilos which means he's predictable.

Yeah... No. SS is Chancellor material if anything, accusing someone else after an investigate makes it much less likely to be picked, so he's either a Liberal or a non-Hitler Fascist, for the same reason I'm pretty confident you're not Hitler as well. If he's Fascist President he can just pass FF, get the execute, and shoot Mitillos. (we probably shouldn't pick him as Chancellor either unless desperate, but that's a different argument).

So I'm picking NM or nsg. Which one will people vote ja for?

I'm sure this comes as no surprise, but I'll vote Nein for either.

[inspiratieloos]

So, mallow, why did you decide to vote in favour of this government when you said you thought NM was a Fascist?

Similarly, Reck, I'd really like to know how you switched from saying you'd downvote any government from BuJaber to voting in favour of this one.

SS, it's about the number of Liberal policies available, not who played them. If hypothetically Fascist!Reck and Fascist!NM had both buried a Liberal and one was on the bottom of the deck, BuJaber, you and mallow would have completely genuinely all drawn FFF. So eliminating everyone with some suspicion means eliminating Reck and NM too, leaving you with 7 eliminated players, while eliminating anywhere from 2-4 Fascists, that isn't any better than just randomly picking people to eliminate.


As for this turn, NM seems the most obvious candidate for Chancellor, I'm pretty sure everyone downvoted the last government over BuJaber, not him.

[inspiratieloos]

Probability states that it's more likely the liberals were burned by people who claimed to not draw any.

Yeah sure, a bit, but we're talking about 25-40% probabilities here, that's not really 'unlikely to ever happen' territory.

Similarly, Reck, I'd really like to know how you switched from saying you'd downvote any government from BuJaber to voting in favour of this one.

I was tired of stagnation and can barely remember who should be in charge of what

Plus I sort of wanted to see what NM would do/claim

Honestly, I have no idea what to say to that.

[inspiratieloos]

Can we get a prod on nsg?

[inspiratieloos]

I read the whole thing, but it is always difficult to get your bearings after 19 pages. So here is my questionnaire for everyone to answer:

1. Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
2. Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
3. Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

I ask the third question because I am not sure if the mod locks the thread or not when the president decides who to execute. If the thread is locked, then we should clear that up well in advance so that liberals know who they can shoot and fascists cannot fake "But I didn't know who to shoot!"

@mod: Is the thread locked between the passing of Fascist #4/#5 and the execution?

1. I think it's most likely that one of you and NicoRobin is a Liberal and the other is Hitler, though there are other possibilities. I think that out of the previous presidents BuJaber and mallow sabotaged, that would make SS and NM Liberals and Reck either unlucky or Hitler, Liberal SS means Fascist Mitillos. nsg seems Liberal after the last election, which leaves you and NR as the final two unknowns, Vijar and NR have both been in the background while the other Fascists have been much more active, which makes me inclined to think one of you is Hitler.
2. I'd vote Ja on myself or SS. Probably Reck too if I had to. My other Lib reads (NM and nsg) are unavailable this election.
3. I'd prefer for you to shoot NR or pres!NR to shoot you for a chance at executing Hitler. Otherwise BuJaber to take out a Fascist vote.

[inspiratieloos]

I am just hypothesizing what the field would be like if Something_Smart were liberal and BuJaber and Mitillos were fascist.
It's like when you are solving a Sudoku, and you are stuck, and you make a guess on some important square, and either get to a contradiction or the answer. The consensus of people that post indicates that Mitillos and BuJaber are right, but I want to explore the alternative option since remember,

I just got here

.

Honestly, the opinions that really matter are NM, nsg and Reck.

We have two real disputes, SS/me vs. Mitillos/BuJaber and you vs. NicoRobin and given that our only president options are you, Mitillos and NR we can't really move on without resolving one of them and the people who need to resolve them are those not involved.

[inspiratieloos]

Yeah, I just realised the obvious solution, we're guaranteed to see at least 1 Liberal if we skip.

There's 3 Liberals in the deck out of 9 cards, so skipping + 2 governments sees 7 cards, even worst case scenario that is 6F1L.

Skipping 2.718, Mitillos and NR, then going Reck/NM -> NM/nsg, means that absolute worse case scenario where there's 2 Liberals on the bottom of the pile we're still alive with 5F and 4L passed, so it's basically a LYLO between me/SS and BuJ. Even in the worst timeline where Reck is the last Fascist and he gets to bury a Liberal and NM/nsg get FFF they can veto.

In anything else apart from the worst case scenario we just win.

[inspiratieloos]

It only assumes you and NM are Liberal (and that Reck is probably Liberal), and I'm personally pretty sure about those.

[inspiratieloos]

Well, it should also still work if Reck is Liberal and one of nsg and NM is Fascist.

[inspiratieloos]

SS/me vs. Mitillos/BuJaber

Interesting grouping.

I don't know mitilos' alignment. Neither should SS know yours if he is actually a liberal.

It's BuJaber vs. Inspi, SS vs. Mitilos.

That's what's actually known.


Also if it skips all the way back to Reck reck can't choos Nm on his turn so let's say he picks nsg. NM would be president next but wouldn't be able to pick reck or nsg. Who does he pick that people will agree on? You say 5/4 is worse case but isn't it 6/3 snd a loss? (3 skips, random fascist policy for 4/3 then 3 F policies drawn by Reck, for 5/3, then the random policy by skipping 3 again draws F and we lose)

Yes that's unlikely but that's the worse case scenario and it's pretty darn bad. Especially if one of reck/nsg is playing the long con.

Mitillos has made it really obvious he's your buddy and it's not me/Mitillos because if you and SS are both Liberals we wouldn't have that many Fascist policies passed, even though yes, technically we don't know for certain that it is not you/SS.

And Reck can choose NM, because after 3 skips the repeated chancellor rule doesn't apply.

[inspiratieloos]

We are not skipping three times, because we are not potentially burying two of the three available liberal cards out of our reach, and we are not giving up one of our two chances to execute Hitler. After a couple more governments, if we know that all the liberal cards are gone, we can consider the merits of skipping three times, particularly since by then we will be getting close to the (BuJ, inspi, S_S, mallow) region, where we will be forced to skip, anyway.

After a couple of more governments the game is over anyway. And the choice is simple. Either we take a 50/50 deduction gamble on 2.718 and NR now and risk losing if we're wrong and they execute an important Liberal or we take a 90+% chance of just winning off the cards with trusted Liberals and then take a 50/50 deduction gamble on me/BuJaber if that fails.

It's objectively the best Liberal play regardless of whether you think BuJaber or me is a Fascist, because we'd probably win before it becomes relevant anyway.

[inspiratieloos]

Mitillos has made it really obvious he's your buddy and it's not me/Mitillos because if you and SS are both Liberals we wouldn't have that many Fascist policies passed, even though yes, technically we don't know for certain that it is not you/SS.

And Reck can choose NM, because after 3 skips the repeated chancellor rule doesn't apply.

Thanks

That's all we needed.

Now with just 1 election we can prove the alignment of 4 people.

When Reck is president he can choose 1 of us 4 . If an F passes 4 people's alignments are confirmed and reck gets the bullet shot. And we don't have to skip my presidency as I would be proven liberal.

If an L passes it most likely means the chancellor is liberal but even if they are a fascist and do that that's a free liberal policy. You can then skip to nsg's turn.

About the skipping rule: is that really the case? I don't think my board game group play like that in real life. Seems like an easy way around the chancellor rule when you have elections to spare.

I'm pretty sure we've established your playgroup doesn't exactly follows the official rules. Bottom left of page 4, under the heading Election Tracker.

And yes we can prove the alignment of four people with one election, but we should only do that after we've had trusted people pass as many Liberals as possible. Why take the risk of being wrong and losing when we can probably win the game already before it becomes relevant?


Anyway 2.718, you should probably nominate someone at some point, I'm going to be neining anything you do anyway and I think every Liberal should.

[inspiratieloos]

You said you trust Reck, N_M drawing three liberals is astronomically unlikely, so it just leaves me and mallow anyway.

BuJaber has had trouble the entire game with reasoning from the perspective he didn't discard a Liberal. He's 'unsure' about you because from his perspective it's perfectly reasonable that there's only one Fascist in Reck/NM/you/mallow because he knows he's the second one.

[inspiratieloos]

Uhm, we have 3 Liberals passed and we need 5, Reck/NM pass a Liberal and NM/nsg pass a Liberal and we're done, no guessing between us required, as a bonus the deck might be nice and randomly give us a Liberal off the top and we can win during Reck's presidency.

[inspiratieloos]

I still think that S_S has a decent chance of being hitler.

I get thinking he's a fascist, but why Hitler? Accusing Mitillos as a fascist is guaranteed to eliminate him from governments until at least the later stages of the game with a high chance of getting in a situation like this where we'll probably not even have to bother figuring out which of them is fascist. That might be acceptable to a normal fascist, but as Hitler it's almost game throwing.

[inspiratieloos]

@BuJ: I believe that your plan involved Reck picking someone between the four people involved in investigations. This doesn't mean we skip three times, and get a random policy first. That would have been a waste of an execution, something desirable only to fascists (*cough* inspi *unconvincing cough*), since it reduces the likelihood of a liberal wincon. The plan can still happen, now that it doesn't take 3 neins in a row to carry out.

Yes, we'd lose an execution in exchange for not running the risk of getting an execution in the hands of a Fascist or of it turning out Reck was Hitler and auto-lose. I took it as a given that no one would vote for you as a president (that didn't go as expected...), Fascist!2.7 or Fascist!NR could have just shot Reck or NM while you're a lot more constrained because open sabotage would make SS conf!Liberal.



Overall I don't think it actually matters

that

much who gets shot here.

You shoot Reck or NM -> SS is Conf!Liberal, you shoot anyone else -> we still probably win off Reck's and NM's presidencies even if you buried a Liberal*, if we don't win off those it's still a 50/50 between BuJ and me, if you shoot me it's a 50/50 between BuJ and SS.

Pedit:*and with presumably all Liberals voting for those it doesn't really matter whether it's 5v4 or 6v3.

[inspiratieloos]

mallow has made some obviously Fascist moves and out of [BuJaber, Something_Smart, mallow] there are probably 2 Fascists. Klick's slot passed a Liberal policy as Chancellor (though forced 2L) and another as President, so probably the most likely Liberal after the confirmed ones.

Anyway, since Mitillos got his hands on the deck, whether there is 1L2F or 3F is dependant on his alignment. Might as well pick one of BuJaber, me, SS or Mitillos now, none of us are likely to be Hitler and choosing wrong this turn isn't that much of a problem, in the hypothetical scenario that I or SS are Fascist we'd get 1F1L and are forced to openly sabotage, confirming BuJaber/Mitillos. Choosing Mitillos or BuJaber isn't a disaster either because the deck is 3F anyway, so after that we can just skip BuJaber and then chain presidencies with vetoes until we get the last Liberal. Even if Mitillos genuinely got 3F as a Fascist and you pick him/BuJaber they'd still be forced to sabotage and confirm me/SS.

[inspiratieloos]

So, pick me for Chancellor.

If it's 1L2F and I pass a Fascist you can just shoot me (making the jump from BuJaber to Klick possible), then keep cycling the presidency between BuJaber, Klick, Mitillos, Reck and NM until you draw a Liberal. If I pass the Liberal we win.

If it's 3F it doesn't matter who the Chancellor is anyway as long as they're not Hitler.

[inspiratieloos]

BuJaber whom did you think the scumteam was?

SS seemed really liberal to me at first but he also was one of the slots that could have thrown away a liberal (him and nsg and reck). Reck was obvtown though.
Couldn't really decide between SS and mitillos though after the investigation because of interactions with me and inspi. Could be that I was starting to believe my own fake associatives between SS and Inspi. Towards the end I was leaning towards mitillos being liberal to be honest. So that meant it had to be SS + maybe nico or mallow (who was pretty unreadable/unpredictable) with a slight possibility of nsg. But I knew if SS was liberal nsg would have to be the last scum.

This game just took way too long with people forgetting about it/not having anything to say. That sort of thing favors fascists in this game, unlike regular mafia, where town tend to be better off in longer games.

Ftr as a liberal I would have always investigated either me or inspi in SS's position.
As for my arguments for picking one of us 4 right after the investigation that I honestly believe is the optimal route for liberals. Nothing is really 100% in this game but that method gets you close to knowing the alignment of 2, possibly 4 people with some luck.

The main reason I was pushing the SS-me/you-Mitillos teams was to signal to you that Mitillos was a Fascist and of course due to the fact that we were literally playing WIFOM it didn't really matter who people believed as long as it was polarised enough to pick one of us.

The deck was the real MVP though, it was nice being able to just call out mallow as a Fascist and everyone kind of accepting it because there were 2 Liberals at the bottom, which conveniently covered up the gap of where the 4th Fascist went with us being in a 1v1.

[inspiratieloos]

Klick was

fascist

?!?

So what was the whole deal with the deck early on? Who dropped blues?

The deck dropped 2 blues BuJaber dropped the 3rd.

[inspiratieloos]

I was also a bit salty at nsg/Klick for not burying that one L card and grabbing an execution, but again it worked out alright in the end so I can't complain.

... My entire play after that presidency was based on the 'knowledge' that there was no way nsg didn't bury a Liberal there.

I guess we dodged a bullet with your presidency.

[inspiratieloos]

In many social deduction games you need to actually know the exact teams by the end in order to win, however in Secret Hitler you only need a few well positioned people, so a Liberal being eliminated in exchange for a Fascist being eliminated is perfectly fine.

Which is the reason your play was pretty bad, there's no particular reason to try and figure out which of the people in a 1v1 is the Fascist and which is the Liberal a lot of the time so you accusing me of being a Fascist eliminates both of us if everyone just ignored it, even if no one figures out the plan. We just got really lucky SS drew FFF and investigated a Fascist, which made a row of 3 1v1 people and forced the issue.