Micro 825: Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires VIII GAME OVER

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hello friends

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I think the decision of whether to play things civilly or not is ultimately not a collective decision.

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Yeah, people need to not assume that scumreading the forest is scummy. That said, I don't think discussing reads strictly is the most productive thing anyway, unless you have particularly compelling reasons, just because prevention is an individual action; ultimately we have to make ourselves readable in terms of being town or scum, while being indiscernible between being forest/smokey/you.

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I think the preventing mechanic is supposed to be a killing mechanic, so it's supposed to kill the forest, i.e. YOU shouldn't prevent the forest.

Nico what do you expect to happen when a YOU prevents the forest? If it's something other than dying or Smokey effect it gives the forest away to scum anyway.

Okay, if you have any other idea how to prevent scum from winning 9/10 times, please do share. Cos this setup has a ridiculously high winrate for scum as it is. I am trying to do something to reduce the likelihood of scum wins......

Yeah I don't understand why YOU preventing the forest makes sense; either it kills the forest, it kills the YOU, or it has some other effect in which case the forest is now confirmed publicly.

The setup being really scumsided isn't a horrible thing; the setup itself a neat novelty, kind of like the fortnight.

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No, Smokey most likely shouldn't claim. If the setup is scumsided, then the town should be risk-loving; Smokey introduces additional randomness. This could be panned out really easily with some mathematical analysis that I'm too lazy to do. Easier would probably be a monte carlo simulation.

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Spoiler: Math that I actually did ugh why did i do this

D1:
1/8 prevent Smokey
2/8 prevent Pyro
5/8 prevent You


D1 prevent Smokey, N1 Smokey is known and 4 You are alive:
1/5 scum win
4/5 D2
D2, 3 You + 1 outed Smokey + 2 Pyro + 1 Forest alive:
2/4 prevent Pyro, N2
2/4 prevent You (Pyro win, as they guaranteedly have enough ignitions to find Forest)
N2, 1 outed You + 1 outed Smokey + 2 You + 1 Pyro + 1 Forest:
1/3 scum win
2/3 D3
D3, 1 outed You + 1 outed Smokey + 1 You + 1 Pyro + 1 Forest
1/2 for You to prevent Pyro, 1/2 for Pyro to ignite You, so 1/4 town win.

Multiplying all that together, if Smokey is prevented on day one, it's a 1/15 town win and a 14/15 scum win with random play.


Let's compare the case where Smokey claims d1, and assume that a you prevents another you, which is the new worst case.

Then we go into N1 with 1 outed Smokey + 1 outed You + 3 You + 2 Pyro + 1 Forest
3/4 for town to make it through N1
D2 has 1 outed You, 2 other You, and 2 Pyro. If outed You prevents a You then it's over, so 1/2 for town to make it through, in which case:
N2 has 1 outed You, 2 other You, 1 Pyro, 1 Forest. Smokey is basically a nonfactor the entire game. 2/3 for town to make it through the night.
Then the same 1/4 chance for town to win on the last day (prevent Pyro, pyro must ignite the unclaimed You).

Total town win rate in this case is now 1/16 if my quick multiplication is right.

Tl;dr: I very probably fucked something up in all this but the town winrate if a You prevents a You after Smokey claims is *lower* than the town winrate if a You prevents Smokey. Very nominally lower (1/16 vs 1/15) but lower. This is because the pool for Pyro to find Forest becomes very significantly smaller.

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They aren't random, but organization has strong potential to be detrimental in a game where town is actually the informed majority and scum is the uninformed minority. Say, if a You gives reasoning for why they've chosen to prevent a specific person between three potential targets (one of which is a Pyro, one of which is an unclaimed You, and one of which is the Forest) then if they're right, the pyro can scumhunt within that reasoning to find the Forest.

And the town doesn't need Smokey as a leader; it gets a leader for free in the form of whatever You or Yous (ideally singular) choose to prevent.

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It is probably better because it's sort of equivalent to a double day; it's hard to extend past a double day though, and it doesn't help if a YOU is about to prevent Smokey. And it might depend on some kind of parity.

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Also probably depends a lot on the status of whether Smokey is known yet; if Smokey is public info, then it's significantly better, because there's no way that it accidentally outs smokey before pyros ignite smokey.

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doesnt this argument go down a slippery slope? If A wants to prevent B, and B is willing to prevent C, then C should prevent before B, before A

The problem with this is that B isn't a confirmed YOU, so them saying that they want to prevent C doesn't prove that they can.

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I was always curious on this point: if you are YOU but someone else prevented first, and the first preventer wants you dead. Would it be better for you to prevent before he could do so?

I was assuming based on the part where someone else prevented first that A is a confirmed YOU.