Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!

Keyser Söze
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Post Post #1475  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:08 am

In post 1463, Nauci wrote:
In post 1186, Keyser Söze wrote:@Eragon - why is your vote not on me?
You have just listed many (bad) reasons why you strongly think I am scum.



Btw, I never said I was "god like" - I'm a below-average mafiascum player with still lots to learn. However, my reads have been on point so far this game. If Dunnstral and tora flip town, I'll feel even better about my developing game :giggle:


You're below-average, but your reads have been on point?

But you pushed Reundo, my slot (which I know is town, of course), and e, and pushed volxen a little. How do you make that statement with just 2 flips?

I have not been fixed/tunnelled in my reads though (caught in confirm bias)

Yes, I scum read Reundo at one point on D1 but you have failed to see the development of my town read of them.

I feel my revised reads are getting closer to the real picture.

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Post Post #1476  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:17 am

There were a few moments I townread TW but that felt like 30 pages ago

it's not out of character for TW to dance on a scum buddy's grave and he took no part in swinging the momentum on that lynch IMO, so there's not much to rule out tw being scum against me yet again except statistical craziness

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Post Post #1477  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:19 am

In post 1335, the worst wrote:
In post 1333, Keyser Söze wrote:TW demonstrating his unreadable tone,

quoting for memes post-game


If you're scum again I'm going to have to buy my cat a rubber ducky for a new avatar

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Post Post #1478  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:19 am

In post 1471, Nauci wrote:WTH is WIM

WIM = 'Want It More. Refers to the attribute of extreme passion and desire to win that Keyser Soze possess.'


You would be hard to find WIM permeating Dunnstral's ISO.

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Post Post #1479  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:20 am

In post 1337, Toranaga wrote:
In post 419, Eragon wrote:
Irrelephant11 wrote:we've got a couple hours might as well use 'em

Anyone else around?

@Huntress, what would you say if I told you scummy word choices were a reason to townread Keyser?

pedit: whatever you're thinking



Spoiler:
Image


i mean, there 4 posts dont really have much to read off, tbh id read them more off the flips.

If volxen is town then i might look at them/sesq a bit more, but if Volxen is mafia i think huntress is going to be quite towny.
i know bussing is a possibility, but how easy is it to just come in, state intent to hammer, and vote sesq?
Instead, they came into the thread, gave a few starting reads, then said they dont want a sesq lynch and voted Keyzer.
then said they're fine with volxen, but preferably not sesq, so more defending sesq, who was at (L-1 was it?) and a few more reads.

so if i had to make a read right now i think id give them a town lean for their posts


I find the excessive associatives with the volxen flip quite alarming, especially considering eragon had just subbed in 2 hours ago. this feels very unnatural from a recent replacement.


That eragon post struck me as towny; I'm not seeing what the scum motivation would be for this?

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Post Post #1480  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:21 am

In post 1476, Nauci wrote:There were a few moments I townread TW but that felt like 30 pages ago

it's not out of character for TW to dance on a scum buddy's grave and he took no part in swinging the momentum on that lynch IMO, so there's not much to rule out tw being scum against me yet again except statistical craziness

If you take out your hard scum read of me from your D2 lynchpool, our reads/or PoE aren't too far apart actually.

How are you reading Eragon currently?

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Post Post #1481  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:23 am

In post 1349, Keyser Söze wrote:just for fun I'm gonna post every time Eragon has shaded something NAI I've written or expressed suspicion over something I've posted:

"So lynching Keyser should end the game"
"i think the most likely scumbuddy would be Keyser"
"agreeeeed. but add Keyser there"
"can I have 10 of what your smoking?"
"I definitely see you and Dunn flipping scum more often then Ausuka."
"IMO we Lynch Dunn > Keyser > NSG/Ausuka > NSG/Ausuka and thats a wrap."
"p.much hard pocketing of Reundo right here"
"This is reachy, incorrect, and wolfy"
"Nice deflection my dude, by not one that will get you far."
"on top of the fact a Keyser/Dunn Scum team could actually make sense"
"i was saying you twisting and misinterpreting her words was bad"
"ahh, the self-deprecation, always the distancing from yourself being scum, because scum isnt likely to point out where they did bad"
"so dont try to twist their words to make it seem like you are doing as much as everyone else and that they are wolfy reaching."
"this is subtly shading dunn and subtly saying "I'm town""
"probably the scum"
"yes i know theres three of them but i could see them all flipping scum"
"honestly fucking stop saying this BS"
"how is there nothing scummy about keyser?"
"its just a way to deflect the attention IMO"
"but i havent seen much presence from you recently either, i know you've had a lot of posts, and probably just RL stuff(understand) but you have lost activity"
"probably the scum"
"if both scum arent in {Dunn, Ausuka, Keyser, NSG, maybe Reundo) i need help."
"also what i mean by this is that this post is super scummy."




...still waiting for him to vote me. All I know is he has my lynch lined up after Dunnstral's (who he's still not voted...)


I need advice from a neutral party:

Does this look like confirmation bias? Or someone suspiciously chaining misslynches / linking a townie-to-scum?


feels like a pretty natural suspicion of you to me

but you probably don't count me as a neutral party

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Post Post #1482  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:25 am

In post 1360, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1355, Keyser Söze wrote:@Dunn - why do you suspect Eragon?


feels kind of detached from the game


...wat

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Post Post #1483  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:27 am

If Dunnstral flips town/scum does that effect your read on me?

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Post Post #1484  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:37 am

(@Nauci - in regard my lack of ISO analysis style posts, I’ve been trying to sort players in real time this game instead of digging up ISO’s.)

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Post Post #1485  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:58 am

Before I finish reading since dunnstral is the lead wagon

Here are some scum games

and here are town ones

They feel similar for the most part. Seems like town Dunn is a bit less passive and makes confident/town leading posts and more responses, while scum dunn makes a lot of question format surface commentary ones, and/or asks people about their scum reads of him like here. He seems to keep teammates at standard distance of half hearted bussing or largely ignoring, and does make inconsistent pushes like hypocritical ones or inconsistent logic.

I'd say this is more scummy than town dunn, based on the lack of engagement, confusion about who was scum/town reading volxen, and questioning people asking him for content?

Idk I have a hard time reading Dunn.

Nauci
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Post Post #1486  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:07 am

In post 593, Eragon wrote:19999999999999% confirmed town{Nauci}
Spoiler:
kidding.



{Irrelephant, The worst, Keyser}
{toranaga, nauci}
{Ausuka, NSG}
{dunnstral, Reundo}


right now Im not very confident on the reads themselves, because I haven't had ISO dive time yet.
Basically this is just the strength of my reads, so the top bracket is my strongest town reads(but not, like, confirmed town, or "IMO never ever flips scum town")
second is town reads, but could sort of go either way
Ausuka and NSG are basically null
And dunn and Reundo are both small scum reads, but not very confident in them

In post 938, Eragon wrote:TOWN CORE
-Nauci
-Toranaga
-Eragon
-the worst
-Irrelephant11

PoE Bracket
-northsidegal
-Ausuka
-Keyser Söze
-Dunnstral
-Reundo

Probably the town
-Reundo
-NSG

probably the scum
-keyser soze
-dunnstral
-ausuka

In post 1393, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1385, Eragon wrote:and if you think they're pockety, can you explain which posts and why?

the piggy backing.
the unsupported top town read of nauci in your town core.


Between 593 and 938 I'm pretty sure I threw down a lot of obvtown posts so I don't see what's so "unsupported" here? Like, town-lean to town-core in that time seems like a reasonable progression

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Post Post #1487  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:07 am

In post 1396, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1390, Eragon wrote:you very well could be hard-defending dunn.

Scum-keyser busses both Volxen and Dunn and sails to easy victory 100 times out of 100.

I wouldn't put myself through all this bullshit.


Irrelephant or I would spot that play from miles away though

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Post Post #1488  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:09 am

In post 1410, Toranaga wrote:
In post 461, the worst wrote:I'm not the watcher.... I'm a duckling



duh

I'm impressed you weren't NKed n1 with the amount of TMI posting that volxen was scum at that EOD


I don't understand: why would TW be NK'ed for that N1

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Post Post #1489  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:12 am

In post 1415, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1412, Toranaga wrote:
In post 491, Eragon wrote:Literally the only play is to kill volxen.

If we lynch him and he’s watcher, then someone else takes his place and we get their results N1

If we lynch him and he’s scum, GREAT!

If we don’t lynch him and he’s watcher, and he’s town, he dies tonight and we don’t get results for N1

If we don’t lynch him and he’s scum, we’ll then we lynch him tommorow, which is a day later than we should

this lacks nuance

My confirmation bias says it’s a bus post.

Perfect timing to try to get t/cred just as the lynch has all but been delivered.


this makes no sense that post was just a game mechanics point hours before deadline just after volxen claimed and people thought about backing off but it wouldn't have made any sense to so the post was very pro town to ensure a lynch based on sound logic

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Post Post #1490  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:13 am

In post 1414, the worst wrote:
In post 1410, Toranaga wrote:
In post 461, the worst wrote:I'm not the watcher.... I'm a duckling



duh

I'm impressed you weren't NKed n1 with the amount of TMI posting that volxen was scum at that EOD

was silently praying for it tbqh


Ducky I worry about you

You're like a WIFOM-BS cannon when you're scum

@Eragon why do you town read TW so much

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Post Post #1491  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:14 am

In post 1411, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 428, Flicker wrote:Votecount 1.15

volxen (6) - Reundo , Sesq , Keyser Söze , Toranaga , the worst , Ausuka
Sesq (3) - Dunnstral , northsidegal , volxen
Keyser Söze (1) - Huntress
Toranaga (1) - Irrelephant
Huntress (1) - Eragon

Not voting: N/A

The deadline for Day 1 is 1:52 pm CT on Tuesday, September 4, in (expired on 2018-09-04 14:51:53).

Who else said DUNN-NSG-VOLXEN are unlikely scum team based on all three sat on Sesq/Nauci slot at EoD?


IIRC, Irrelephant

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Post Post #1492  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:19 am

In post 1446, Toranaga wrote:
In post 1432, Eragon wrote:
In post 1410, Toranaga wrote:
In post 461, the worst wrote:I'm not the watcher.... I'm a duckling



duh

I'm impressed you weren't NKed n1 with the amount of TMI posting that volxen was scum at that EOD


why would he be killed for giving off TMI??

isnt TMI bad?

knowing volxen is scum requires one to be the watcher, or scum.


are

are you a time traveler

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Post Post #1493  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:22 am

In post 1475, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 1463, Nauci wrote:
In post 1186, Keyser Söze wrote:@Eragon - why is your vote not on me?
You have just listed many (bad) reasons why you strongly think I am scum.



Btw, I never said I was "god like" - I'm a below-average mafiascum player with still lots to learn. However, my reads have been on point so far this game. If Dunnstral and tora flip town, I'll feel even better about my developing game :giggle:


You're below-average, but your reads have been on point?

But you pushed Reundo, my slot (which I know is town, of course), and e, and pushed volxen a little. How do you make that statement with just 2 flips?

I have not been fixed/tunnelled in my reads though (caught in confirm bias)

Yes, I scum read Reundo at one point on D1 but you have failed to see the development of my town read of them.

I feel my revised reads are getting closer to the real picture.


You repeatedly talked about wanting to sort NSG (and TW) but didn't engage with her catch up posts at all

and I haven't seen you case TW either

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Post Post #1494  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:35 am

I think it would be absolutely mad to lynch Eragon today

<Dunnstral, TW, Keyser> is my lynch pool for today

-I'm clearing Toranga because newbscum Volxen wouldn't try to throw heat off of himself onto a teammate like that in his other-lurkers post (experienced scum do though, like Dunn)

-Reundo built the wagon on volxen from scratch day 1, even if he's been suspiciously inactive d2, and I completely grok all of his views, even the ones where I don't necessarily agree I see where he's coming from

-I thiiiink this is town Irrelephant, because I feel like scum irrelephant has bits of knowing the setup leak out in his posting or just hints of an agenda, but townrrelephant jumps all over the place trying to get reactions and vote momentum

-I honestly don't remember why I thought ausuka was town but I remember feeling that was the case quite strongly

-NSG is not scum here; I just don't think any of what she's post is within scum nsg range even when she's not burned out

-I thought eragon's posts about lynching scum OR claimed watchers was town-beneficial, as well as catching many of the things I found questionable about keyser before I did/post about them, which means he's not just sheeping me opportunistically. The things he noticed would be *really* hard to contrive as scum, even if Keyser is actually town. Funny enough I was paranoid about Eragon until Keyser's post summing up every time he shaded Keyser :lol:

Meanwhile, GNB was commented on by volxen in a very suspicious way, made a lot of town levels of effort posts but that were just commentary on mechanics and surface level game info. TW as scum is a WIFOM cannon who's just as prone to dancing on his scum buddy's grave as he is being outright friendly to his partners, and despite having a few informative posts, has been resting on his laurels since. Also, ducky, you sure as hell know I'm town here =P

I'm not sure if I mentioned in my previous catch ups, but it felt like Keyser was on the volxen wagon when it was only kind of building and wasn't a sure lynch yet, but by the time he checked again, it had picked up enough steam that it'd be really awkward if he switched to sesq without really really good grounds. His post evaluating sesq felt more like he was searching hard for a reason to vote there and save volxen, but couldn't come up with anything by the end of the case so he may as well post the effort in the thread for why he stayed on Volxen. I realize that this is some serious paranoia reaching level theorizing, but all of my gut feels about Keyser this game are a 180 flip of what I felt in the American Presidents game, where I defended him to irrelephant's paranoia. :lol:

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Post Post #1495  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:36 am

Not enough time to rally a keyser wagon so I'll just go here VOTE: dunnstral

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Post Post #1496  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:06 am

I’ll take it as a compliment you are scum reading me.

If Eragon is actually town who is trapped in confirmation bias / suffocating paranoia, so be it.

All my actions (even though innocent and NAI) are being scum read by Eragon and Nauci - but I’m ok with that. I like the content and rationale behind Nauci’s other reads though. If she opposes the Eragon lynch strongly there’s only one way to go and end today:

Dunn’s flip. the ultimate info lynch for D2. If he flips town, I’ll probably need to replace out though.

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Post Post #1497  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:11 am

In post 1359, Keyser Söze wrote:VOTE: Eragon

Probably gonna stay here for the rest of D2.

Dunnstral vs Eragon wagons competing makes most sense in my reads universe. Not going to give any town-scum, scum-scum association theory until we see a flip.

I may need to go back on my promise.

VOTE: Dunnstral

Sorry mate. I needed more tangible town motivation in your ISO to defend you with. In the end, I’ll have to concede and say WIFOM isn’t going to outweigh the surface level scummy actions in your D1/D2 behaviour. I hope to play again with you, but hopefully it’s in a game that engages/excites you.


Let’s end Day 2.

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Post Post #1498  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:41 am

In post 1492, Nauci wrote:
In post 1446, Toranaga wrote:
In post 1432, Eragon wrote:
In post 1410, Toranaga wrote:
In post 461, the worst wrote:I'm not the watcher.... I'm a duckling



duh

I'm impressed you weren't NKed n1 with the amount of TMI posting that volxen was scum at that EOD


why would he be killed for giving off TMI??

isnt TMI bad?

knowing volxen is scum requires one to be the watcher, or scum.


are

are you a time traveler


he claimed watcher, remember?

so if you're the watcher you might behave like TW

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Post Post #1499  (ISO)  » Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:49 am

NO ONE HAMMER DUNN I'M IN THE MIDDLE OF MY KEYSER POST

UNVOTE:

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