Secret Hitler (Game Over)

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10^12*e

Nice, except that the space was actually supposed to be the decimal point. Apparently, periods were not allowed characters and I did not think of using an _ instead.

If the 3rd fascist policy gets passed and the same chancellor who chose the policy is hitler it's not an auto win for hitler?

No, there already have to be 3 fascist policies at the moment he is elected.

I just got here. Why exactly do you think that either me or NicoRobin is fascist?

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Well, I noticed that there are three people who intend to

nein

whatever I pick. So I think we know that

BuJaber

and

inspirwhatever

are not both liberal, and

Something_Smart

and

Mitillos

are not both liberal (we think that SS is fascist?)

I just got here and kind of want to get some content going rather than just immediately pick randomly and be neined.

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I read the whole thing, but it is always difficult to get your bearings after 19 pages. So here is my questionnaire for everyone to answer:

1. Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
2. Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
3. Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

I ask the third question because I am not sure if the mod locks the thread or not when the president decides who to execute. If the thread is locked, then we should clear that up well in advance so that liberals know who they can shoot and fascists cannot fake "But I didn't know who to shoot!"

@mod: Is the thread locked between the passing of Fascist #4/#5 and the execution?

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let mitilos be president.

Nobody, not even Mitillos, should be in support of this.

Except that you could be lying and Mitillos could actually be liberal.

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I only have 3 confirmed neins and I want to see what some of the other six players think (Not_Mafia, inspi, Something_Smart, mallow, northsidegal, and NicoRobin).
I will then decide if I want to try to be in a government (picking Mitillos, probably) or just pick the worst possible person and hope that a fascist accidentally votes ja and self-outs...

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Spoiler: visual table

Liberal board		L	L	L	...	LIBERAL GOAL
Failed Votes			{..}	{..}	{Draw}
Fascist board	F	F	F	Execution	Execution	FASCIST GOAL

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Well, we

have

to either
(1) let me be president, or
(2) let Mitillos be president, or
(3) let NicoRobin be president, or
(4) draw a random policy.

I think the consensus is to trust Mitillos but I am not sure why and from the looks of things I am supposed to not trust NicoRobin.

Something_Smart, did you answer my three questions?

1. Do you think I am on the liberal or fascist team? Why?
2. Are there any people I could pick as chancellor that you would ja? If so, who?
3. Who do you most want to get executed (either by me or the person you eventually ja)?

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I replaced Vijarada. What is your opinion on him?

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If it is really true that two of {me, Nico, mallow} are fascist, then why would Something_Smart ja a gov with me and Nico? One of SS and Mitillos must be fascist.

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Wait, I

know

that one of SS+Mit is fasc due to the inv result. But either way, I want to ask this to Something_Smart:

From your perspective, who do you think the fascists are?

(I am not sure how much of Mitillos' fasc list to trust and I want the alternative viewpoint on this situation.)

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What if you are lying? Here is what I could gather from the combined perspective of Something_Smart and myself.
This is the playerlist and order of presidents from that perspective:

1. xRECKONERx
2. Not_Mafia

3. BuJaber

4. inspiratieloos

5. Something_Smart

6. mallowgeno

7. northsidegal

8. 2 718281828459

9. Mitillos

10. NicoRobin

One of the whites would be the last fascist.

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I am just hypothesizing what the field would be like if Something_Smart were liberal and BuJaber and Mitillos were fascist.
It's like when you are solving a Sudoku, and you are stuck, and you make a guess on some important square, and either get to a contradiction or the answer. The consensus of people that post indicates that Mitillos and BuJaber are right, but I want to explore the alternative option since remember,

I just got here

.

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I think I will nominate xRECKONERx, but I am not sure about that just yet. We can either ja or nein depending on what the town thinks.

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Where is mallowgeno in this? Why does his/her/their/its/eir opinion not really matter? (I seem to get this idea that mallow is supposedly fascist?)

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For Hitler to win by being elected chancellor, he at least needs to fool 2 liberals (unless some have been executed).

NSG... has been not very active compared to some of the others, so I am not sure on this.

(Also in what world do I force a fascist through and then 1v1 somebody as Hitler?)

is not claiming that S_S dropped a liberal policy... in fact it seems like the opposite. I kind of think that BuJaber is overreacting in 543.

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V/LA for three days.

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I think I have an understanding of what is going on.

I officially nominate Something_Smart.

I think this is the best pick, anyway.

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I neined myself after trying to imply I wanted the gov to pass, in order to try to trick fascists into voting ja. Of course, I may have tricked a

liberal

...

S_S could be hitler and Nico could be a fascist.

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It is very unfortunate that I had to lose my chance to be president to help convince you that I am a good pick for president...

I will not insta-nein Mitillos, but I have varying levels of suspicion on anyone except xRECKONERx and one other that I forgot (I think it was nsg/Klick); those two I think are liberal.

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I still think that S_S has a decent chance of being hitler.

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Well, the consensus

was

that I would be neined, and in all honesty I expected 10 neins. So, the chances of all four fascists voting ja was pretty low, and even then, it would still require two liberals, who are supposed to follow a plan not to elect me at least for now.

inspiratieloos, I did not say "S_S is definitely hitler! Everyone try to assassinate S_S asap or else I call you fascist!" I said "S_S has a decent chance of being hitler". And I have played enough secret hitler to know that hitler can certainly accuse a fasc and try to gain trust by appearing to be on the "liberal side" of a FvF argument. Not saying that it necessarily

is

happening, but it definitely

can

.

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The "consensus" thing was because you, Mitillos, and BuJ were (from my view) dominating the conversation (in a way I only take offense to if a fasc does it), and I figured that most of the quiet people would just go along with the plan that supposedly had a 90% chance of working. I kept going back and forth between trusting the plan and not trusting it.

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I think I trust Reck, but I am not sure about Mitillos. This will be a tough one.

flips coin

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Well, do not shoot Not_Mafia or xRECKONERx unless you

really

think one of them is a vanilla fascist.

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Reck, if you were really just trolling, you should have suggested to shoot Ausuka.

Mitillos, we

also

have selection bias in play here which makes it literally impossible to figure out actual hard probabilities.
Like, as a simple example, you can say that the probability of drawing 3 reds from a 6-blue 11-red deck is about one in five, but if someone claims it to excuse a fascist policy, then that de-weights several possibilities (e.g. clearly LLL did not happen, and neither did FLL unless both in the gov are fascist and wanted to burn liberals), and those probabilities are immeasurable. So the FFF claim is much more likely than one in five purely because you know that someone dared to claim it.

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I will say a few things:
1. Your opinion to shoot inspi comes from your POV; we need inspi to think of the opposite viewpoint.
2. A shoot of NicoRobin does seem to be fine with me. Nico seems to be the common enemy; everyone else is in weird arguments that I am struggling to untangle.
3. If Mitillos is exposed, then we also lose all credibility in the people that Mitillos reads as town, and those that Mitillos reads as scum will suddenly seem very liberal (or at least some of them).

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Hold it... how does Mitillos being fascist confirm SS as liberal? You will probably say that the other 3 fascists are accounted for, but we do not know that for sure and "confirmed" is a strong word.

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Mitillos

, answer the following questions:
1. What, in your view, is the probability of NicoRobin being Hitler?
2. If not, is there any chance that Nico could be vanilla Fascist?
3. Is the probability of instantly winning the game versus being down to 5v4 better than the certainty of shooting a fascist but then still having to work for a liberal win?

Personally, I would suggest that the remaining 9 players (or as many of them as possible) should informally vote on who to shoot, and Mitillos should agree to shoot the one who gets the most votes.
VOTE: NicoRobin

Votecount 1

NicoRobin (1) - 2.718
Not Voting (8) - all others

With 9 alive apart from Mitillos, a majority is 5.

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(Before you say anything: I do not think SS is certainly fascist -- I simply addressed the question to someone who does.)

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How could S_S know that Nico is not hitler, unless S_S is fascist? Ausuka had not updated the game until after S_S made that post.

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I thought it was subjunctive thinking and forgetting to write "if" because you were so focused on the not-hitler possibility (because if NR was hitler, the game would be over).

I lost a mafia game due to similar thinking.

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Unofficially Prodding Everyone

(expired on 2018-09-07 20:15:29) until... nothing happens except for this countdown showing that it expired.

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The fascists could bluff. That is the textbook example of WIFOM unless Reck commits to shoot someone no matter what (or at least commits to shoot based on the policies).

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...ok

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I feel like someone lied and the deck is 0L3F.

Score is 4-4 right? And the two no-chancellor people are ineligible.

Do we think that Klick/nsg or mallowgeno might be safe? Or was there some other plan we had that I now cannot remember?

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If we pass 3 times and flip a red then the entire deck is shuffled and it will be 2L6F.
And not picking Hitler is crucial which is why we are having this entire discussion. I am not trusting someone purely because they claim not to be a likely hitler.

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Actually, I want you to nominate Klick because inspi could be fascist but we all seem to think that Klick is town.

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Unofficially Prodding Everyone

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Klick was

fascist

?!?

So what was the whole deal with the deck early on? Who dropped blues?

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I kind of want to do this again, but this time:
1. We need to prod inactive players. Like, you have to post once in five days or something.
2. I want to start from the beginning. I replaced into the worst possible slot: a townie who was suspected by several people.
3.

We should have the opportunity to discuss the game between nomination and voting

!! I voted JA because I trusted the president, and we had no chance to discuss BuJaber's possibilities of being hitler. In the real game, the only communication restriction is that you cannot talk during the legislative session.
Votes should still be finished within a week, though.

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3. We should have the opportunity to discuss the game between nomination and voting!! I voted JA because I trusted the president, and we had no chance to discuss BuJaber's possibilities of being hitler. In the real game, the only communication restriction is that you cannot talk during the legislative session.
Votes should still be finished within a week, though.

Is this true?

Because I always thought the president can say "I'll pick x" as many times as they want, but as soon as they officially pick players hsve to vote. Either way live game is different because it's much more fluid.. there's a lot of overlap sort of between the 'phases' because people can't talk and place votes in perfect unison.

In the live game, you can say "Bad pick! Bad pick! Vote nein!" or "Oh, that was unexpected. Do we trust ___? Ok, I guess I will ja." right after the president makes the nomination.

@mitillos - I didn't want to investigate a fascist. Was hoping for liberal. However when I saw it was fascist I figured it's best to create TvS wifom. ESPECIALLY that I thought for sure whoever investigated the 2nd time would pick either me or inspi. If I called him a liberal and they investigate one of us that would expose BOTH of us.[/quote]

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If I have not already said this: I would definitely be willing to play again.