Micro 827: The Team Odds - Game Over

[RadiantCowbells]

A: 24
B: 32
D: 34
E: 31
F: 37
G: 43
H: 45
I: 42

VOTE: H

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[RadiantCowbells]

NSG you're up.

[RadiantCowbells]

This is, I think, the first time I actually wanted to roll scum in a game this year

[RadiantCowbells]

im already kinda vibing schadd/gazer

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Skygazer

[RadiantCowbells]

your own odds being low with certain people don't make them optimal lynches

[RadiantCowbells]

why would you apologize for being town

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Dunnstral

Dunnschadd or dunngazer maybe

[RadiantCowbells]

dunnformer even

[RadiantCowbells]

u should vote yourself then

[RadiantCowbells]

ok

[RadiantCowbells]

.|.

[RadiantCowbells]

Am I the only one who thinks dunnformer r buddies

[RadiantCowbells]

schadd what was ur great rxn test

[RadiantCowbells]

i don't sheep u

u sheep me

[RadiantCowbells]

don't be carcasilly

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm good looking, I don't have to tryhard in mafia games

[RadiantCowbells]

carca is town

i'll go do the thingy soon

[RadiantCowbells]

why are you scumleaning carca?

[RadiantCowbells]

performer is

not

vonflare in fact.

[RadiantCowbells]

nsg what are your reads on everyone besides carca

[RadiantCowbells]

damn um

nsg might have been right

tempted to sheep her

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean

performer I'm wavering on

but I think dunn has been objectively scummy

[RadiantCowbells]

rc I haven't played with you in a shit of a long time but can you not have your natural homeostasis state as scummy tysm ily no hetero

Pedit schadd is way scummiest than Dunn

what's this supposed to mean

[RadiantCowbells]

I would buy lillyformer as well

tldr stop being a scum

I don't think what you're trying to do is scummy. I just think your methods in a couple of posts were very ineffective.

ok
every time i've said i should sheep nsg i've talked myself out of it then regretted it

VOTE: Carcalilly

[RadiantCowbells]

i can't read skygazer.

[RadiantCowbells]

i always thought former was scummy
I kinda trust NSG's reads and i see why she has hers on you, so.

[RadiantCowbells]

Wh4t 23
Carcalilly 26
schadd_ 24
Performer 36
Skygazer 42
Dunnstral 40
Eragon 33

[RadiantCowbells]

i don't really need a case from you

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Performer

[RadiantCowbells]

can we leave it at that's my read?

[RadiantCowbells]

i don't think it's a towntell at all

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean the general idea of 'hey rc can townread nsg' doesn't really need exposition and I feel like seeking exposition here is not a towntell

[RadiantCowbells]

u were mean to me so sure

[RadiantCowbells]

do u rly scumread that

[RadiantCowbells]

damn okay

how do I babysit you to make that happen NSG

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm kinda townreading our eragon

[RadiantCowbells]

with eragon as town all the probabilities are pretty close

[RadiantCowbells]

NSG can I ask why you're leantown on me

[RadiantCowbells]

actually maybe im not townreading eragon

why is everyone in this game so damn scummy

[RadiantCowbells]

Am I the only one who thinks dunnformer r buddies

You always sr me....

there is no benefit of quicklynching

none

so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you

rc why don't you agree with me

yeah carca is likely town. Good to see we're town again!

this was a terrible townread

possible svs

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean im hard scumreading performer and you're scumreading carca and I like vaguely agree enough to support it so

maybe this is just an easy game

[RadiantCowbells]

difference in philosophy as relative to what game?

[RadiantCowbells]

ye happy with my eragon townread

RC/Eragon/NSG town

[RadiantCowbells]

i would like

seriously consider leading NSG to my partner then underplaying in a way she'd catch if i was scum here

[RadiantCowbells]

actually maybe not tbh

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm seeing dunnformer and lillyformer > dunnlilly

[RadiantCowbells]

like performer is my real scumread

i'm support carca because I think NSG is a Skilled Player (TM)

[RadiantCowbells]

whatdo you mean 5poosted

[RadiantCowbells]

so u mean that ur not really scumreading him?

[RadiantCowbells]

oh so u mean his 5 posts are convincingly his scumgame

[RadiantCowbells]

D,G,H with offchance of E on perf scumflip

carc,sky,dunn with schadd as minute and wh4t as v unlikely

[RadiantCowbells]

wh4t

is up

my dog

[RadiantCowbells]

I mean she's statistically the least likely person to be scum + there's relaly bad intearctions elsewhere

[RadiantCowbells]

wait a second

skygazer's chart has other people's probabilities of being scum adding up to 100%

that must mean that she knows that she's scum

[RadiantCowbells]

i know but maybe she mistyped her own as 0% instead of 100%

[RadiantCowbells]

spewed me scum

[RadiantCowbells]

well skygazer scumclaimed for both of us

VOTE: RC

gg

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Performer

[RadiantCowbells]

i have an inno on galsidenorth

[RadiantCowbells]

gr8

if you bus me no one will suspect we were scumbuddies all along

you should vote me so it seems real

[RadiantCowbells]

everyone knows we aren't scum together already because I would have powerbussed you with that 1/180.

[RadiantCowbells]

all the C groups are IMPOSSIBLE

i am le obvious town

[RadiantCowbells]

NSG can I ask why you're leantown on me

-shrug-

call it a difference in philosophy this game, i guess. or maybe it's just wishful thinking. i don't really have any real concrete answer to give you.

this was a terrible townread

possible svs

same thought occurred to me, although there's no need to get ahead of ourselves. just something to keep in mind, i suppose.

still looking for follow up on tihs

[RadiantCowbells]

can we just all be town and none of you be horrible people who would roll scum in this game tyia

[RadiantCowbells]

1. my success rate through smart-sheeping is better than my success rate when figuring out my own reads so actually i think ill actually just sheep from here on out

ur not voting with me

[RadiantCowbells]

feels vaguely town idk

[RadiantCowbells]

linklinklink

[RadiantCowbells]

saw reckoner, stopped reading sry

[RadiantCowbells]

yea that was an obvtown reaction

absence of it doesn't make him scum here though

[RadiantCowbells]

yea i'm not really townreading eragon

[RadiantCowbells]

Aaaaa

I'm scared

[RadiantCowbells]

i really wish this game had less lynchbait

[RadiantCowbells]

are you flattered?

[RadiantCowbells]

just for the record my reads are typically p all over the place right when I start out
it takes me time to get somewhere where my reads are properly fleshed out

if you were to vote on your own reads, who would you be scumreading?

[RadiantCowbells]

you can't ask that question like I don't know from past experience that I have to.

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm down to like

a very small number of potential scumteams at this point lol

[RadiantCowbells]

if you claimed scum to me like a good girl it'd be a lot easier

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Eragon
VOTE: Skygazer

/me leaves thread

[RadiantCowbells]

game was just too easy sry

[RadiantCowbells]

list of games that were just too easy:

this game
games where I rolled this alignment

[RadiantCowbells]

let's add this game

[RadiantCowbells]

is your backup plan to try to get people to think I'm bussing?

[RadiantCowbells]

probably not given the whole 1/180 thing

[RadiantCowbells]

hint: it's town

[RadiantCowbells]

are u rdy for my readslist

RC: town
Dunnstral: town
Performer: Town
NSG: town
Carcasilly: town
Schadd_: Town

Wh4t: Implied town

Skygazer: scum
Eragon: scum

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

sure, it's the I-slot and they have massive equity with a lot of people and are highly likely to go down before endgame either way. why not try to look towny from their flip.

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean it could be dunn for third

but i think carca and performer are both town and wh4t is statistically town so

[RadiantCowbells]

like

{RC, NSG}
{Performer}
{Schadd_}
{Carcalilly}
{Dunn, Skygazer+}
{Eragon}

with wh4t as unplaced.

[RadiantCowbells]

aaaaand

carca only makes sense with gazer which heavily spews her town on top of that being the read

8,9,10 on each of the dunn,skygazer,eragon permutations so feeling pretty good

[RadiantCowbells]

also this thing where people know u long enough to read u is so weird
there's people who have played with me for 5 and a half years and still got bupkiss

[RadiantCowbells]

schaddgazer I guess needs to be in contention too

[RadiantCowbells]

i guess I am kinda getting ahead of myself though I do have good feelings about what I've done so far

{RC, performer, NSG}

then team wise in the remainder

{Carca/Dunnstral}
{Carca/Eragon}
{Eragon/Dunnstral}
{Eragon/Gazer}
{Gazer/Dunnstral}
{Schadd/Gazer}

don't think I"m missing any high equity teams

[RadiantCowbells]

i should say

skygazer is by far the highest equity lynch right now

[RadiantCowbells]

like

well over 50% scum equity mathematically and I'm not comfortable with my read on her.

[RadiantCowbells]

in fairness that is dependent on some assumptions but

[RadiantCowbells]

but yeah I could cosplay as ruru or dino and make the mathematical play

[RadiantCowbells]

* A D E G H I
A 0 3 1 4 9 5-------22
D 3 0 7 5 1 1-------17
E 1 7 0 9 3 1-------21
G 4 5 9 0 8 10-------36
H 9 1 3 8 0 9-------30
I 5 1 1 10 9 0-------26
---------------------130-------65

[RadiantCowbells]

so

Wh4t is scum 33% of the time
Carcalilly is scum 26% of the time
Schadd is scum 33% of the time.
Skygazer is scum 55% of the time
Dunnstral is scum 46% of the time
Eragon is scum 40% of the time

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm curious if there's a really optimal way to lynch taht 6 that allows us to win against anything but 1/130 teams

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm sure there is if we get one more townclear but I'm trying to do it NOW!

[RadiantCowbells]

Or just, like, the highest % lynch order possible with just us 3 as clears

[RadiantCowbells]

yeah there's no way because there's bullshit like Skygazer in that scumpool that has good odds of being scum with every other person

[RadiantCowbells]

yea kinda cuz i'm counting teams twice

[RadiantCowbells]

actually no

i' mright ur wrong

[RadiantCowbells]

jk no I know mine is wrong

[RadiantCowbells]

like I thought summing every pair twice would cancel in the end but life isn't that easy

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm supposed to be good at math

[RadiantCowbells]

0.2894736842
0.2236842105
0.2763157895
0.4736842105
0.3947368421
0.3421052632

same order

[RadiantCowbells]

it's altogether unintuitive to me how to approach different probabilities of people being scum

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm genuinely literally half the thread rn

[RadiantCowbells]

not literally but, like, close to it you feel me

im gonna go to bed and see what people do

don't lynch anyone that I woulnd't lynch

[RadiantCowbells]

umm

@mod am I allowed to provide a link to a google spreadsheet in the game thread

[RadiantCowbells]

eh

I think carca's town

i'll do one more without her

[RadiantCowbells]

0.3220338983 Wh4t
0.2372881356 Sch4dd
0.5254237288 Sky
0.4915254237 Dunn
0.4237288136 Eragon

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

* A E G H I 0
A 0 1 4 9 5-----19-----0.3220338983
E 1 0 9 3 1-----14-----0.2372881356
G 4 9 0 8 10-----31-----0.5254237288
H 9 3 8 0 9-----29-----0.4915254237
I 5 1 10 9 0-----25-----0.4237288136

[RadiantCowbells]

still vibing that gazer/eragon more than anything else

[RadiantCowbells]

dunn's 'all in all' is giving me bad vibes but I can't actually search his post history to see if it's indicative because the search isn't working

[RadiantCowbells]

gut says it's gazeragon though

[RadiantCowbells]

plus my current biggest independent scumread is

eragon

and, y'know, highest equity and all

[RadiantCowbells]

this is what me in full tryhard mode with like 10 posts by every other player looks like

[RadiantCowbells]

yea tho

VOTE: Skygazer
VOTE: Eragon

pick one any one

[RadiantCowbells]

Think schadds town for now not super tr like my others though
If he is we're down to

Gazer/Era
Gazer/Dunn
Gazer/Wh4t
Dunn/wh4t
Era/wh4t

Based on me thinking it's +likely era/Dunn not buddies aorn


Tho probably it's just eragazer

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: skygazer

Higher equity scum plus I'll just enjoy it more

[RadiantCowbells]

People who say town until proven guilty essentially mean that if they don't scumread someone, no one else should be allowed to wagon them.

@wh4t, where's Skygazer on your readslist and why did you vote Eragon who I'm not voting?

[RadiantCowbells]

My carcalilly townread I'm somewhat uncertain of ftr

[RadiantCowbells]

Also what your readslist is my readist with skygazer nowhere to be found

[RadiantCowbells]

Sky is still rly scummy though

[RadiantCowbells]

0.2894736842 what
0.2236842105 carca
0.2763157895 schadd
0.4736842105 sky
0.3947368421 dunn
0.3421052632 era

same order

[RadiantCowbells]

rc are you still scumreading performer

because i'm not seeing it

Did u even read my posting

[RadiantCowbells]

It's me and Wh4t

[RadiantCowbells]

How did you get so GOOD at this game

[RadiantCowbells]

Nsg?

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm reporting you

NSG if I vote eragon will you powerlynch skygazer not before endgame but tomorrow?

[RadiantCowbells]

@wh4t, where's Skygazer on your readslist and why did you vote Eragon who I'm not voting?

I thought sky was next to shadd. Ive played with both sky and Era before. I think Era is awkward - almost too try hard for what I remember. Sky could easily drop down but his longer posts with good insight give me pause.

Can you explain the high odds you have for sky?

Pure math

She's also scummy as fuck and has bad associatives with my other scumread Eragon

Can see every other player as town pretty easily

[RadiantCowbells]

Carca is plausibly scum but I trend towards thinking she's just being bad

[RadiantCowbells]

i didn't say you were bad i said you were being bad

but sure

[RadiantCowbells]

unfortunately I can't take the risk on an eragon vote right now.

[RadiantCowbells]

I don't even want to case Skygazer because I don't want to give away the reasons for my vote there.

[RadiantCowbells]

hi

[RadiantCowbells]

hi sky

[RadiantCowbells]

she's scum

[RadiantCowbells]

ahem

nsg r scums

[RadiantCowbells]

maybe u underestimate sky

[RadiantCowbells]

no you should be lynched because you're scum

you being a potentially dangerous scum player isn't teh reason ur scum

[RadiantCowbells]

no

[RadiantCowbells]

because you're scum with eragon

[RadiantCowbells]

and you have to call me scum at this point because you lose in every other world besides lynching me today.

[RadiantCowbells]

and the idea that I cleared people to call you scum is laughable, NSG is someone who I autoclear and Performer is someone who several agreed was town at about the same time.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: RC

[RadiantCowbells]

i've caught both scum, if you don't lynch them when I'm gone you're outright gamethrowing.

[RadiantCowbells]

that's enough actually playing the game for me
let's discuss how I can have 155 posts of trying to solve the game and working through reads and I can still be scumread at this point in the game (by wh4t, I know Skygazer is scum) literally no one else ever gets scumread here. LLD doesn't get scumread here. FA doesn't get scumread here. No MU player, not their best as scum get scumread here. But when I do it? nah I'm still scum.

I have strong reads I believe in? scum with an agenda. I don't have strong reads? scum lurking. I have reads that are right? scum bussing. reads wrong? scum pushing mislynches.

but in the end it doesn't matter what I do at least one person is going to scumread me and if I get reads good enough to threaten scum, it doesn't matter because a bunch of stupid fucks who would never correctly scumread me a day in their lives will mislynch me with them and blame me because they clearly have something broken upstairs.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: wh4t

you're the problem here, not the actual scum, sorry.

[RadiantCowbells]

wow

i wonder why i would have tried to emotionally distance myself from mafia games even knowing that it generally hurts my read accuracy when i do.

[RadiantCowbells]

if you were town you wouldn't have voted me in the first place.

[RadiantCowbells]

aww poor you

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

skygazer is still scum
wh4t might be scum as well right now

[RadiantCowbells]

sure

let's call it skygazer/wh4t

[RadiantCowbells]

note that i said skygazer/eragon mostly because, well, everyone else wasn't scum
and i think eragon is more likely to be town than wh4t right now.

they pulled this shit because they wanted to piss me off and discredit my read on skygazer in doing so.

[RadiantCowbells]

like this is such a garbage push on me I don't buy it coming from town wh4t ever in hindsight
or town skygazer

so I'm pretty sure both of them just scumclaimed.

[RadiantCowbells]

sure.

[RadiantCowbells]

hey Wh4t you should show up so i can sheep RC's read on you

this is what was said the first time I called her scum btw.

significance is my own for now.

[RadiantCowbells]

you being scum and it being your best play is a good reason, yes

[RadiantCowbells]

[RadiantCowbells]

diediedie

more blood for the blood god

[RadiantCowbells]

wh4t scumflip doesn't make skygazer town. literal opposite in fact.

[RadiantCowbells]

what fun!

[RadiantCowbells]

wh4t scumflip doesn't make skygazer town. literal opposite in fact.

also goes v/v

[RadiantCowbells]

haha suck it bnl

[RadiantCowbells]

hi smell funny im rc

[RadiantCowbells]

no its rly not

[RadiantCowbells]

this game was a lot more fun yesterday night.

[RadiantCowbells]

i thought we already were

[RadiantCowbells]

i should just not play mafia if even carefully curated playerlists aren't playable.

[RadiantCowbells]

although that's heavily dependent on flips here

i guess it's forgivable if you guys really are svs which I guess is also likely enough but

even if I'm right and I win this basically single handedly I won't feel good about it anymore.

[RadiantCowbells]

What is up with your defeatism? Noone is voting you anymore...

damage is done.

[RadiantCowbells]

feelings about it are heavily contingent on your flip.

i'll get over it if you're scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Skygazer

[RadiantCowbells]

You're both great people even if you're errantly scumreading me as town.

[RadiantCowbells]

jury's out on wh4t

sky is still scum and if she's not I need to know that for tomorrow.

[RadiantCowbells]

unfortunately I probably don't live to tomorrow but.

[RadiantCowbells]

not sure if my flash of eragon town was legit or just tilt from being voted, will verify that after I get some distance

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Carcalilly

[RadiantCowbells]

can't lose to scum carca here, she's too obvscum even if i know she's lynchbaity.

[RadiantCowbells]

i'm gonna make a real case on skygazer for her to respond to :shrug:

[RadiantCowbells]

town vibes on era are real
town vibes on performer are real
rc town nsg town

kinda thinking about schadd/carcalilly right now
wh4t/skygazer still possible i guess

dunn could be scum with anyone I guess?

[RadiantCowbells]

do you still scumread carca, NSG?

[RadiantCowbells]

idk how I read wh4t here, this isn't like either of his games as far as I've ever interacted with him before.

[RadiantCowbells]

Hi, I'm scaring me. who are you?

[RadiantCowbells]

yes

go ahead and yeet yourself into the sun

[RadiantCowbells]

wanna sheep me sheeping you or w/e you want to call it?

[RadiantCowbells]

hi down for a carcalilly wagon

[RadiantCowbells]

hi young and tired

[RadiantCowbells]

i mean i'm still down to lynch sky I guess because i have 0 town feelings about it but I'd feel bad if it flipped town