Micro 827: The Team Odds - Game Over
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I had the odds typed out but im on mobile so ill copy and paste soon but
VOTE: Dunn- Skygazer
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Code: Select all
A Wh4t 28/272 10.3% B northsidegal 33/272 12.1% C RadiantCowbells 35/272 12.9% D Carcalilly 33/272 12.1% E schadd_ 31/272 11.4% F Performer 36/272 13.2% G Skygazer 00/272 00.0% H Dunnstral 38/272 14.0% I Eragon 38/272 14.0%
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ur canadian i needed a way for u to understand- Skygazer
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just a quick note that i fully intend to quickhammer dunn if he hits L1- Skygazer
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hey rc i havent played with nsg extensively why is she town?- Skygazer
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nah but if there's a player that RC is willing to locktown then i wanna have a locktown- Skygazer
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ill give reads when im done playing/trolling ToS with RC- Skygazer
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RC not willing to give me townpoints for things makes sense from him bc he's told me a little bit in the past that he can't read me
im willing to locktown nsg unless RC flips scum at some point
also i think ive heard that nsg is more active as town? possibly?
i haven't played with that many people here but im hoping i can figure out eragon early and schadd later on but ive only seen schadd play on a roleplaying alt- Skygazer
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im conftown to myself, that changes the odds of every other player involved to me differently than it does for someone elseIn post 121, Eragon wrote:how do people get different maths
Why are you taking that post at face value when I was already voting for Dunn?In post 121, Eragon wrote:wolfy.
why the hell would you want to quick hammer this early?
claiming that you will just gives you the space to not get lynched tommorow if you do and Dunn flips town.
because RC knows nsg well enough to make that call and I trust RC's judgement for the most part when he's town. how is that possibly a bad thing?In post 121, Eragon wrote:????????????????????????
why would you just blatant follow someone saying someone else is locktown
????????????????????????
-yesIn post 121, Eragon wrote:your willing to lockdown NSg because RC says so?
then won't change until they flip scum?
what is this progression?
you dont think NSG is being active so far?
-possibly unless i get an independent read of nsg but if RC is town then NSG is very likely town
-what progression? are you just throwing buzzwords around?
-i mean i was kind of implying nsg has been active by saying that so
gut pings/reaction testing but your wall made my read strongerIn post 122, Eragon wrote:
can you explain how thats scummy?In post 120, Skygazer wrote:100% scummy entrance- Skygazer
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@nsgIn post 44, Carcalilly wrote:WE ARE NOT LYNCHING ON PAGE 2
these pinged me tbhIn post 46, Carcalilly wrote:there is no benefit of quicklynching
none
so hold down your horses and schad please stop being scummy so I can Unvote you
rc why don't you agree with me
a lot of his posts feel awkward in a way i havent figured out so i might dig into some meta- Skygazer
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okay, lets say RC can read nsg with wild accuracy. wouldn't it be optimal to trust that read to inform my own read rather than rely on my likely less accurate thoughts?In post 137, Eragon wrote:because you should at least try to make your own reads, especially early game when thoughts of alignments are easily subject to change
-i mean i do have a read of NSG, it just happens to be heavily informed by RC's read (:In post 137, Eragon wrote:-why dont you try and make a read of NSG then?
-your progression of "Oh, Rc might be town so because they say NSG is town NSG is town too" I dont see any towny influence of sheeping someone that from your point of view has a fair chance at flipping mafia, 25% from your point of view, if you are town. so your willing to bet a 75% possible town read thats correct on another 75% chance Read? just going off numbers here, but its more helpful if you actually put effort into the game and try to solve
-thats not how it came off as
-RC has like a 13% chance from my point of view actually. besides, he's very likely to eat a nightkill and i have town pings from how he's been reading me
-well then you made a bad inference especially when you consider that i was townreading nsg
i mean gut ping implies its very weak just based on the specific wordingIn post 137, Eragon wrote:how does a entrance comment saying "wow this game is fast, gonna go catch up" ping you as scummy?
and can you explain why my wall is scummy?
your push on me was weird esp considering you didn't back it up with a vote but i just remembered not voting much is your thing
your three scum reads seemed kind of safe (schadd, me, dunn)- Skygazer
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iirc town eragon was still verbose but less so than scum eragon- Skygazer
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srry there were a lot of typos everyone except me and one other lovely person is at 0%- Skygazer
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HAH u fell for my trap this game is actually MOUNTAINOUS way to scum claim- Skygazer
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@schadd: you feel kinda town and relaxed except for maybe the comment on ur lurking meta?- Skygazer
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RC lets not ruin our 1/180 chance of rolling scum together lets just talk about this in the scum chat- Skygazer
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AB
AE
AF
BF
BG
CG
CH
DH
DI
EI
1/18 chance that one of these is our scumteam- Skygazer
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@schadd: it felt a little unrelaxed to bring that up preemptively but i also realized u were talking mostly about ur play as cardi- Skygazer
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1. my success rate through smart-sheeping is better than my success rate when figuring out my own reads so actually i think ill actually just sheep from here on outIn post 150, Eragon wrote: 1. take it into account for all I care, but sheeping without having any read on the target means nothing
2. ok, just forget about the numbers and actually think aboutreads.
"also i think ive heard that nsg is more active as town? possibly?"
I dont know how else to take this other than "isnt NSg more active as town?"
but I guess your explanation makes sense
3. so my SR's are safe, but what about everyone else that SR's Schadd, you, and Dunn?
are they safe as well?
2. i am thinking about reads, the numbers only give maybe like a 4% difference in probability at the extremes, like i specifically mentioned my read on RC in the point ur responding to here so
3. ur scumreads come with the context of a lot of other people pushing dunn before you and me and schadd pushed by RC- Skygazer
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scum: newbie 1879 and 1881In post 151, Eragon wrote:
can you point out which games your talking about?In post 144, Skygazer wrote:iirc town eragon was still verbose but less so than scum eragon
town: newbie 1882
im goin off memory here tho- Skygazer
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im worried because the last time i scum-read era when he was town he had a much more negative/flaily reaction and that didn't rlly happen here even though he's already scumreading me- Skygazer
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im not sure if im flattered
i would probs still be voting era but the lynchbaityness is kind of eh
same w Dunn
lilly feels awkward in a way that i could vote but again lynchbait potential and ive seen that kind of awkwardness from town before
why do you feel the need to explain why your reads are typically all over the place early on?- Skygazer
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god rc i was waiting for that hard bus to finally happen- Skygazer
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hey Wh4t you should show up so i can sheep RC's read on you- Skygazer
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hmm
do think i would actually come in scumreading the person who's scum-flip would put me at most likely scum here if we were scum together?- Skygazer
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man i cant wait until we've known each other long enough for you to be able to read me- Skygazer
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im goin to work on some composing and go to bed, night!- Skygazer
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well i realized just now that my math in my second post is def off
but im pretty sure straight up dividing the final number isn't right either?- Skygazer
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howd u arrive at that
im a music major i need some guidance- Skygazer
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if i can be scum with everyone then my flip provides little information either way
checkmate- Skygazer
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hey rc unvote me, update ur percantages with me as conftown, and go from there- Skygazer
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so what ur saying is,,, i should be lynched because im potentially a dangerous scum player?In post 375, RadiantCowbells wrote:maybe u underestimate sky- Skygazer
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@RC: does me flipping town change your performer read at all?- Skygazer
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it's interesting to me that after i asked this question RC went from hard scumreading performer to townreading them and in fact clearing them and others in a way that would point towards me being most likely scumIn post 219, Skygazer wrote:why do you feel the need to explain why your reads are typically all over the place early on?
im interested to see if it's because RC is scum and wanted to go after me after questioning him or if he thinks im so likely to be scum that he's clearing performer on associations
and RC went ahead and just answered that second one for me so
RC, why are you townreading performer?- Skygazer
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I've seen town-RC be willing to keep his reads close to the chest but like not to this extreme
all these changing reads seem super convenient and honestly it feels like he's setting up a mislynch on me and then the rest of his PoE pool feels like potential lynchbait that's super easy to push
like look at how he goes from TRing to SRing to TRing to SRing era
and then he goes and starts to waiver on his nsg read
he clears performer because ???
and like from what i've seen from Wh4t so far I have no idea why he's not looking into that slot rn
I've seen RC do a lot of these reaction-testy pushes but honestly the way this is super extended and still unreasoned is giving me rlly bad vibes
VOTE: RC- Skygazer
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so ur clearing ur previously biggest scumread because other people say so?In post 391, RadiantCowbells wrote:Performer is someone who several agreed was town at about the same time.- Skygazer
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nah i'm good at getting votes off of me and townspewing as scumIn post 390, RadiantCowbells wrote:and you have to call me scum at this point because you lose in every other world besides lynching me today.
im not gonna 1v1 a huge threat to me as scum if i were in a losing position like you think i'm in- Skygazer
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UNVOTE:
town reaction?
RC, help me out here. Why are you scumreading me? Seeing a tunnel on me when I'm town is always extremely frustrating and even more so when it's you and you're not explaining it.- Skygazer
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fine, lynch me, i flip town, you (if you're town) or nsg gets nightkilled
is that what you want? - Skygazer
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