OPEN 732 : PICK YOUR POWER X/Y (GAME OVER)

[Enigma]

VOTE: brass

Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.

1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.

I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.

But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?

But I know I'm town, so probability says...
VOTE: BuJaber

[Enigma]

VOTE: brass

Hahaha we all played ourselves. Nobody picked 7.
Okay if Oka is town he makes a good point about coordination.
I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

That said not sure why he'd assume they picked 1.

1 is a ballsy pick. It's like picking 7 and we were all too cowardly to pick 7. I think ruru is town because he wasn't afraid.

I don't know how useful this is, maybe later on if massclaim becomes a thing, but each of us knows for sure that:
- if we got our choice it means nobody above us in the order picked the same X/Y pair.
-if we didn't get our choice it means somebody above us has one of the X/Y pair we picked.

But I picked the same number as you? By your logic (if you were town) that scum would all pick different numbers, why wouldn't you be suspicious of me since there is a higher (random) likelihood I could be scum?

But I know I'm town, so probability says...
VOTE: BuJaber

This post is pinging me.

It's like you were just looking for an excuse to jump onto the BuJaber wagon.

I don't really understand how you got to the conclusion that he's scum just from your post.

I think we can safely assume that no two people with the same number are scum together.

let's not

Is this how you normally are?

Because your tone rubs me the wrong way. I feel dismissed and belittled.

Uh if I'm understanding this correctly, you scumread ofrhz because he dismissed you and belittled you?

Yes

My assumption is backed by reasoning.
If he/she is town who thinks my reasoning is flawed he/she could have argued his point of view.

He/she did not and simply disagreed.


Pedit - what?

No two people with the same number can be scum together =/= no two people with the same number can be town together.

We could be both town or you could be scum. You aren't automatically scum just because I'm not scum. Because whether you are scum or town you did not coordinate with me about the number.

If you like probabilities so much you should be agreeing with me more than anyone else. Because you know for a fact that we did not coordinate so if you are town you'd know that at least for the number 6 my assumption is correct.

The same applies to ausuka and brass. If either of them are town they know that at least for their number my assumption is correct.

Yeh, but if I understand, your going assumption is that scum chooses three different numbers? This makes it more likely for them to end up choosing the same number as a townie, since scum have coordinated to choose different numbers.

Though if they were smart enough to choose the same numbers for WIFOM fun then I might go sit in a corner after this game

[Enigma]

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i am confused?

if you're PGO i'm not really sure why you would announce this unless you were trying to like purposefully not get visited. although if you're town i guess that's probably be the point

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

[Enigma]

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i am confused?

if you're PGO i'm not really sure why you would announce this unless you were trying to like purposefully not get visited. although if you're town i guess that's probably be the point

Not sure why one would pick a PGO if you were town anyways, considering likely more town PRs than scum PRs. Wouldn't town just choose 1 shot vig?
Plus wtf would ruru, as first seed, choose from that pair?

Ruru could always be vengeful scum and trying to get us to pl her?

Uh I sorta understand.

Town!ruru being on top spot means mafia will prioritize killing her because they think she has this powerful role. Now that she claimed, I'm sure they'll have second thoughts on if visiting her is actually a good idea.

Now we just have to know if this is scum!ruru or town!ruru.

TBH, scum would likely want to pick one from that pair (PGO or one-shot vig) since it's an extra night kill for them essentially. So this means they would have a good chance to know if she is bluffing or not. Plus several town PR to protect/negate/mitigate/watch/etc. Keep in mind town PRs are less likely to know if she is lying or not.
So ruru's whole play has been decidedly anti-town by either wasting a good town PR opportunity, or calling for herself as a town PR to likely be killed.

Anti-town vs scum vs noob hrrrmmmm...

[Enigma]

Ruru, if town, was assured to be a town PR. Why wouldn't she likely be killed?

If she's town, she is literally the only assured town PR.

I'm confused by this all.

Because of town PRs such as watcher, jk, doc, commuter, etc. This is a town heavy PR setup. Some WIFOM for scum to deal with as well. Plus scum are likely to hit PRs regardless of targeting number 1, just not targeting number 14 jaja.

[Enigma]

Scum picks in drafts (I did this before I remembered someone had already done this I want my 30 minutes back )
Open 427: 1, 4, 8
Open 472: 1, 3, 7
Open 486: 1, 10, 22
Open 506: 1, 5, 6
Open 518: 5, 12, 42
Open 542: 1, 2, 6
Open 579: 2, 3, 8
Open 593: 4, 9, 15
Open 630: 2, 2, 6 (scum lost lol)
Open 649: 6, 11, 13
Open 675: 1, 3, 10
Open 701: 1, 3, 5

[Enigma]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75474

i'm having a lot of trouble seeing the person who kept posting to herself 'i am town' in her scum pt (i'm pretty sure this is last scumgame on site barring a marathon game last week) trying to pull any of these things off as scum tbh

Ok her scum play is sooooooooo very different to what we see here. As scum she posted meaningful discussions and fake analysis. Here, it sounds like she has a posting restriction ... it is so different that it seems almost forced.

[Enigma]

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

It's game theory ... its not weird!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory
The name sounds much more exciting than the theory itself btw...

[Enigma]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75474

i'm having a lot of trouble seeing the person who kept posting to herself 'i am town' in her scum pt (i'm pretty sure this is last scumgame on site barring a marathon game last week) trying to pull any of these things off as scum tbh

Ok her scum play is sooooooooo very different to what we see here. As scum she posted meaningful discussions and fake analysis. Here, it sounds like she has a posting restriction ...

it is so different that it seems almost forced

.

you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?

Yep.

[Enigma]

Quack

[Enigma]

VOTE: Enigma

blatantly sheeping two early town reads (agree with the tone looking weird in 109 and with CJ's point as well)

but mostly BuJaber's latest posts made me not like my vote on him

Are you are blatantly sheeping onto this new wagon?

[Enigma]

you're saying she could be purposefully trying to play differently to throw us off her scumgame?

Yep.

Have you played with ruru as town or read any of her towngames?

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=75474

i'm having a lot of trouble seeing the person who kept posting to herself 'i am town' in her scum pt (i'm pretty sure this is last scumgame on site barring a marathon game last week) trying to pull any of these things off as scum tbh

Ok her scum play is sooooooooo very different to what we see here. As scum she posted meaningful discussions and fake analysis. Here, it sounds like she has a posting restriction ... it is so different that it seems almost forced.

she wouldn't post as scum without like re-reading and re-checking each of her posts; it was all super planned and coordinated very very carefully. i just don't see her being ... carefree enough to post like this as scum. it's too lolcrazy to come from her as scum!imo.

like she's too worried about how she's percieved to try something like this i think

i also played a towngame with her - brass's open; i think open 721 maybe? and she was just a lot more ... spontaneous is prob a good word

Yeh just read 721 she is spontaneous, but helpful at least with content. Here i feel is quite different - more random: no content here ... plus awkward non-town-beneficial choice/claim/play for no1 seed.

No games with anyone here .. haven't been on site for a loooooong time

[Enigma]

VOTE: Enigma

blatantly sheeping two early town reads (agree with the tone looking weird in 109 and with CJ's point as well)

but mostly BuJaber's latest posts made me not like my vote on him

Are you are blatantly sheeping onto this new wagon?

what do you think about ruru's and ofrhz's votes on you?

Gut says one of the three who jumped on are scum.

I don't think there is (for myself, at least) any point in trying to rationalise ruru for now. I think I'll just ignore her and her claim until later in the game where it will all unravel if she's scum.

Also I was just waiting to see if ofrhz would feel like explaining himself later. He asked a few qs, I responded but he didn't say end up reasoning in thread but rather just jumped on the wagon. Though I imagine it was due to my attention on ruru, and given the controversy and difference of opinions there - leaning the suspicion towards sky.

[Enigma]

@skitter - not exactly. I was saying that the fact that I said I predict that 1 scum is among the researchers doesn't necessary mean I didn't research. It just so happens to be true but since it was just a prediction on something nai (research) the next time I predict something similar I might be among the pool. In this case the fact that multiple people have researched past games points to one f them being scum simply because I find it highly unlikely that all those that researched are town. Especially since scum benefit more from the research in this setup imo.

No brass scumread is based on the meta thing I mentioned. I wasn't thinking about him or anyone else in particular when I made the prediction.

I dunno I kinda felt that oka's posts seemed like active participation for the purposes of scumhunting. But given the wagon on him it'd be worth reading his ISO to see all his posts together and assess his total contribution to the game so far.

I dunno about scum benefitting more from research into this setup - they have the benefit of being in the informed minority so they can already work together to make sure that their drafts choices are cooperative with each other and the scum team in general. Town don't have anyone to bounce reason, strategy and logic off pre-game and they are also going into it blind (and competing with more than scum), so why not try to make an informed and rational decision by looking at past games?
Or meh ... maybe I'm just a nerd

[Enigma]

Gut says one of the three who jumped on are scum.

This is objectively most probable if you're town though

Do you specifically think it's more likely than random?

I don't think there is (for myself, at least) any point in trying to rationalise ruru for now. I think I'll just ignore her and her claim until later in the game where it will all unravel if she's scum.

Also I was just waiting to see if ofrhz would feel like explaining himself later. He asked a few qs, I responded but he didn't say end up reasoning in thread but rather just jumped on the wagon. Though I imagine it was due to my attention on ruru, and given the controversy and difference of opinions there - leaning the suspicion towards sky.

If I'm unreadable to you then why is sky PoE scum and not me? Are you actually scumreading her?

So if more people jump on my wagon today or if something otherwise happens to me and I flip or whatever, then the VCA for the wagon will definitely be interesting and worth pursuing.

Less PoE sky, and more scum reading:
1. She townreads you immediately after your introduction post
2. Doesn't show curiosity when voting me, despite being curious when posting earlier votes
3. Ignores and is not surprised by your whole distracting PGO debacle

[Enigma]

So if more people jump on my wagon today or if something otherwise happens to me and I flip or whatever, then the VCA for the wagon will definitely be interesting and worth pursuing.

This doesn't really answer the question

Do you think a redflip in {sky, ofrhz, ruru} makes the others less likely to be scum?

Also if you know you're town then shouldn't reading the votes be equally interesting to you now?

Less PoE sky, and more scum reading:

Can you explain why your previous post sounded like a PoE scumread?

1. She townreads you immediately after your introduction post
2. Doesn't show curiosity when voting me, despite being curious when posting earlier votes
3. Ignores and is not surprised by your whole distracting PGO debacle

Why are these scum-indicative?

0. Where did this new ruru come from? pls stay
1. Do you think 2 of 3 scum are on my 5 person wagon. I think less likely but not impossible.
2. If I have not been reading the votes currently, then what have I been doing???
3. Check my previous posts if it wasn't subtle enough before I wrote it out
4. Because it can suggest not being in the non-informed majority ...

What are your thoughts on PL on a PGO claim before LYLO?

[Enigma]

I'm too obvtown to pl

Then why is a good percentage of players debating about pl you??

---

Tbh, this is how I see your earlier actions on pgo claim:

1. Town and true claim
IMO not town-optimal play but w/e not beating a dead horse. There is a high chance scum tried to go for that role, and probably failed. So scum likely know you are telling the truth, and wouldn't be so surprised - you would know this and afford extra scrutiny to those who are less surprised when you are scum hunting (which is not what is happening rn).

2. Town and false claim
There is a high chance scum tried to go for that role, got that role, and know you are lying. So they'll just kill you and any town docs, jk, watcher, busdriver etc wouldn't touch you. Someone knows your are lying risking counterclaim, so terrible choice and highly illogical. Put into improbable basket.

3. Scum and true claim (on vig/pgo pair)
Claim obv town, actually choose 1-shot vig over PGO knowing town PRs unlikely to target you following claim. Shoot someone on night near end-game to win. Maybe scum-buddy took veng, so you might choose to kill night 3 to hold your cover as PGO by riding the obv town wagon.

4. Scum and false claim (on vig/pgo pair)
Why? If pair in town you would get CC and die. Unless the vig/pgo pair is also in scum ... but risky. Illogical.

---
TLDR: PL ruru doesn't seem like a bad idea.

Will respond to other stuff tomorrow when have more time later

[Enigma]

quack

You sniped me quack

---

dont even try to steal my pagetops >:C
~ tw

[Enigma]

1. Do you think 2 of 3 scum are on my 5 person wagon. I think less likely but not impossible.

Right but the whole reason I'm questioning you about this is that you could say that based purely on probability

"2 players are unlikely to be scum in a random sample of 3" is a much different statement than "if one flips scum, the others are less likely than (2/whatever) to be scum"

The latter involves some sort of correlation or associative read

I'm asking if knowing one of our alignments would affect your read on the others

3. Check my previous posts if it wasn't subtle enough before I wrote it out

Okay I just reread your iso

The first couple times I read 176 I don't think I understood it

I read sky's post as saying that

she's

blatantly sheeping her townreads onto you

I'm now reading your post as you thinking sky was accusing you of sheeping onto a wagon (bujaber), and you thinking it was hypocritical of her?

4. Because it can suggest not being in the non-informed majority ...

Do you think town specifically wouldn't townread my entrance?

Do you think town specifically wouldn't vote a scumread without asking a question?

What are your thoughts on PL on a PGO claim before LYLO?

I'm too obvtown to pl

Its not probability. I don't think scum would so blatantly all jump at the same time onto my wagon. So if one flipped red, I would be less suspicious of the others.

Tbh there are still those who are still grasping at straws over my first (semi-)RVS vote. I don't know any plauers in this game. I had thought of voting bujaber to start of with anyways even before the game started for picking the same number as me ... w/e the explanation of probability theory (which i still stand by) came off badly and it was barely a "wagon" in a sense it was RVS. If I wanted to slip under the wagon (as scum would) I would just do a single "random" vote post and disappear.

I don't know town ruru, I don't know scum ruru. I read the scum PT posted and your entrance play seemed so weird. It was just that I though (and still do) that your play was non-town optimal. But whatever, it's distracting and I already mentioned previously that I was going to ignore the whole PGO debacle until later in the game.

I would like to think a town player would want to confirm for themselves a scum read suspicion before voting? Unless they are that cocky about their play/reads ...

[Enigma]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

Soz real life, it was one day ... and if I were to flip (town) what would you say about the counter wagon then?

[Enigma]

I don't think Engima was scumreading BuJaber

Explain 39 in light of Oka's statement. Also, why don't we ask Enigma himself rather than declare reads on his behalf?

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

So he does SR BuJaber. Or are his probability calculations indicative of intent to propose for marriage? And how can a vote based on the

probability of being scum

be considered a RANDOM vote?

Oh come on. You just mentioned why do we ask me, then you go on to make a conclusion of my scum read....

It was a semi-RVS vote for picking the same number as me, I would have done it regardless of what had happened before I posted. The probability stuff is true. Go read game theory and cooperative/non-cooperative game play.

[Enigma]

his statistics based scumhunting makes v little sense tho and resulted in an opportunistic vote on a wagon and even tho he's making an effort to look like he's scumhunting since then he hasn't taken his vote off the wagon

There was no wagon and it was page 1. It makes very little sense cause you don't understand and then stubbornly sit there beating the same (first) post over and over again. Here, go enlighten yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

Don't need to take my vote off, it's not doing anything bad where it is right now, don't like the Oka wagon, and spending more effort defending myself than scumhunting.

[Enigma]

Oh yeah and I'm also skeptical of people already trying to counterwagon enigma when I'm like still questioning him and he's close to getting prodded

Soz real life, it was one day ... and if I were to flip (town) what would you say about the counter wagon then?

Also, its 14 game days. I disappear for one night (which I will do whenever I want to), IMO it's perfectly fine and even beneficial for people to keep playing the game and not just tunnelling and waiting for my availability.

[Enigma]

341: Yes, it was a wagon, and your vote was the fourth one in it

I don't see how someone stating that two people with the same number can't be in the same scum team (which is false btw) automagically means someone with the same number as you is likely to be scum. That's not game theory, it's a bad leap of logic and you're not even backing it up with actual odds/statistics. And now you're calling me stubborn and telling me to enlighten myself by linking to a broad wikipedia post on game theory? Like what are you even trying to accomplish? Do you think I'm going to read that and somehow throw all logic out the window?

Wagons in RVS mean nothing.
Well, maybe if you did maybe try to look a bit into it, you might understand where I'm coming from and my logic, rather than stubbornly dismissing everything I say and repeating the same arguments we've already touched on. Yes stubborn.

Let's not waste our time further.

[Enigma]

I feel like the "semi-RVS" vote is kind of a scumtell

and like simultaneously defending it as rational but also writing it off as not scum-indicative because it was RVS

As you wish, not sure any further explanation will convince a few people on the wagon otherwise.

There is rationality behind it as I explained, and it's not a scum indicative. It's the first post, and I'm also not sure what scum would achieve by jumping on the wagon .... were we going to quick lynch??

[Enigma]

I don't think Engima was scumreading BuJaber

Explain 39 in light of Oka's statement. Also, why don't we ask Enigma himself rather than declare reads on his behalf?

sounds like he was doing some weird probability calculations/rvs vote. I don't think that is inherently scummy at this phase of the game, it was like a semi-rvs vote. It's not like BuJaber is going to be lynched this quick in the game.

So he does SR BuJaber. Or are his probability calculations indicative of intent to propose for marriage? And how can a vote based on the

probability of being scum

be considered a RANDOM vote?

Oh come on. You just mentioned why do we ask me, then you go on to make a conclusion of my scum read....

It was a semi-RVS vote for picking the same number as me, I would have done it regardless of what had happened before I posted. The probability stuff is true. Go read game theory and cooperative/non-cooperative game play.

So, it was a semi-RVS and not a SR, yet your vote is

still

on BuJaber because?

Hint: You better amuse me, cuz I actually typed the vote then decided not to put you @L-1 now

his statistics based scumhunting makes v little sense tho and resulted in an opportunistic vote on a wagon and even tho he's making an effort to look like he's scumhunting since then he hasn't taken his vote off the wagon

There was no wagon and it was page 1. It makes very little sense cause you don't understand and then stubbornly sit there beating the same (first) post over and over again. Here, go enlighten yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

Don't need to take my vote off, it's not doing anything bad where it is right now, don't like the Oka wagon, and spending more effort defending myself than scumhunting.

[Enigma]

enigma lets say you are town,

who scum?

Ok, not normally super big fan of lists but lets add my contribution in case I go poof...

Let's just start with my wagon since 14 ppl are a lot and I've been skimming over quite a few posts/players. Will add more later if I have time and when I'm less hungry.
Town lean
lolwhatruru - The entrance just did not make any sense to me, perhaps I just don't know her play and from reading the one scum PT posted it was pretty overwhelming. But recent contributions, particular the questioning feels town.
Skygazer - I feel scum would not be this stubborn and push so hard on my wagon (a mislynch btw)

Null lean
orfhz - Makes logical assessments, looks at a range of posts to make conclusions. Feel like actively scum hunting rather than jumping and staying on an easy wagon. Though hasn't really tried to paint me as scum, nor try to validate that claim or consider alternatives.
skitter - too much text to read. her analysis seems to ping-pong places (e.g. liking the draft analysis by brass, but then also stating that draft speculation is bad). Also, things such as obvtown based on meta just don't feel the best sometimes - I feel town would be a bit more cautious.

Scum lean
CJ - Hasn't really put up a good reason to jump on an easy wagon (outside of the first post I made), jumped on/off my wagon, hasn't tried to look into the wagon more or even scum hunted .. just slipping under
Ausuka - Feel like she has just enjoyed riding this wagon after jumping on earlier, with no effort to validate her suspicions or make associations out others

Also, I feel new wagons (e.g. Invis) at this point are not looking good and a sign of disassociation with scum on my wagon. Will discuss later

[Enigma]

okay engima, what's the deal with your vote still? is bujaber still your top scumread? I'm not seeing any indication of you trying to figure out BuJaber. Are you doubling down?

No, don't think Bujaber is super scummy actually. Wasn't a fan of your wagon. I think it is a bit of a lost cause and a distraction starting a brand new wagon on others, especially in my position. I could be convinced about an Invisibility vote but to be honest, I got a bit busy trying to respond to questions and defend myself than actively scum-hunting (outside of those who were engaging with me).

Lets just do an UNVOTE:

[Enigma]

@enigma im getting the impression that orfhz doesn't want to get his/her hands dirty, you?

I feel that's the argument for several of the non-town reads on my wagon lol, not just orfhz.

[Enigma]

i commented on enigma a while ago
if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

Could you give an example of what I didn't respond to? Thanks.

Skygazer - I feel scum would not be this stubborn and push so hard on my wagon (a mislynch btw)

nice AtE

i've seen you're still not responding to my points

BuJaber is a townlean now btw

Appreciate if you could remind me which ones I haven't touched on? Points that I've already addressed (but we continue to fundamentally disagree on) do count as responded to from my perspective as I have nothing new to add.

[Enigma]

if i ask questions and i end up townreading people, i'm not going to push them
and a few questions, i haven't even gotten responses to

Your timeline on me so far:
You asked me two questions,
1. Could ruru be playing differently to throw us off her scum game - yes
2. Have I read any of town ruru games or played with her - no

Then you voted me without commenting on my responses

Then you havn't pushed me since

[Enigma]

@enigma how important is your role for town?

It would be nice to have a bit time before we start talking about my role (if I have one) ideally.

[Enigma]

Also, I feel new wagons (e.g. Invis) at this point are not looking good and a sign of disassociation with scum on my wagon. Will discuss later

can you elaborate on this please?

@engima please

Day 1 is already a mess, and will continue descending into more of a clusterfuck.
I feel like it is either a decide to lynch me, or don't and convince people to move onto another wagon proving good merit to do so.
New wagons which obviously won't move anywhere with limited/poor justification (or so we would have thought yesterday) are an easy way to keep a low profile and hide in future VCAs.

[Enigma]

at this point im reaching just lynch lurkers territory

It's gunna be hard to get 8 people on board with that tho (and they know that), the current decision is lynch me or not ... people should just TPR lurkers or something.

[Enigma]

VOTE: enigma

meh at this point we aren't going to figure anything without a flip. would prefer a lynch on vulcan but meh

Hey I meant discuss the merits of lynching me and if we want to do it, don't lynch me just yet!

[Enigma]

Someone post so I can quack pls

[Enigma]

[Enigma]

@Enigma

Appreciate if you could remind me which ones I haven't touched on? Points that I've already addressed (but we continue to fundamentally disagree on) do count as responded to from my perspective as I have nothing new to add.

1) You can't just say something is more likely and not back it up. That's what you're doing. I know what game theory is and you haven't done any mathematical models to actually back up your claims. I would not be surprised in the slightest if there's no significant changes in probability based on two players having the same numbers.

2) You're not even doing anything with this vote that you supposedly still like. You're not pressuring BuJaber at all and instead throwing shade at other people.

Finally you're trying to dismiss my arguments rather than respond to them by calling me stubborn and saying I keep dismissing your points. I touched on (1) before and you never addressed it. I've read your other points and they aren't backed by logic at all, you just keep saying "lol game theory." And a wagon on page two is still a wagon and if you're stating that it was "semi-rvs" then it wasn't even entirely rvs anyways. So your point about it not mattering doesn't stand.

Ok I acknowledge this may not stand up to maths/economic professor scrutiny, and probably flawed the more I thought about it (considering my early skim read to try and choose a draft number), particularly considering I'm not lowest but here is what I was yapping on about.

1. I was too lazy to do my own calcs so I stole someone else's. This is what we can consider at the Lowest Unique Positive Integer Game. With Game Theory and Nash's equilibrium, the probability of someone else picking 6 is about 0.08 ish (Figure 1i for N=11 where we are N=11 town). https://arxiv.org/pdf/1001.1065.pdf
2. Here is a terrible assumption, scum are logically playing and cooperating with each other not to choose the same number. So assuming they all choose three random numbers between 1-14 non-repeating (assumption for the 14 - but the likelihood of doubling above say 10 is almost non-existant assuming rational play). The probability of them choosing 6 the same number as me is 0.21 (3/14).

[Enigma]

Enigma's still ignoring me

What did u say

[Enigma]

Enigma's still ignoring me

What did u say

I was too busy waiting to quack rather than write ... but you ruined it anyways.

[Enigma]

@Enigma what's your math background?

Engineering, but its been nearly 10 years since I've tried to do maths so it's probably all wrong and quite flawed ... was my own little game for choosing a draft. Additional credentials are I watched the movie a Beautiful Mind (about the fellow Nash who's theory lets you solve this) last year.

[Enigma]

sorry whats the point of enigma doing all these calculations?

Sky training me and claiming I made up the numbers (well I did in a sense to reach the conclusion, but there was some mathematical attempt there...). Plus half my wagon's continued obsession still with my first post (where I put a vote on a "wagon" claiming probability), despite all my other lovely contributions to the game and attempts to quack page tops.

[Enigma]

okay my question is what are the odds that scum!bujaber picked 6 and what are the odds town!bujaber picked 6

How the theory works (as I understand it) is that as town, you can't coordinate/communicate with each other and that your behaviour is influenced by how you think the others will act, and their behaviour is influenced by how they think you will act etc., i.e. game theory.

So from reading about 5% of the article, I understand their graph is saying the probability that someone else will pick 6 (assuming you are trying to pick the lowest number, not just a number high enough to get a draft) with N=11 blind players is 8% ish.

Its hard to guess odds for scum as they can coordinate with each other, so I did a primitive assumption as I explained earlier, but the % is higher.

Pls lets not continue with maths for evidence on who to actually lynch, because the above requires rational participants and we are not rational people here.

[Enigma]

Sky, what's the point of asking about the point of asking about the point of ruru's question?

[Enigma]

What kind of engineering?

Mech

[Enigma]

quack. good night

[Enigma]

I actually find it a bit surprising that a MechE would ever have believed picking the same number as town is scum-indicative

Probably why I haven't done any engineering for several years. Meh it made sense in my head when I saw the draft, and searching for and reading the theory and graphs were interesting so

[Enigma]

Sorry, been really busy with friends staying over - quick catch up post.

617 is a really townie train of thought so town points to skitter.

But he didn't even present the paper until after being pressed for it and he doesn't fully understand it and hasn't even brought up the paper until now iirc so I'm inclined to believe that Enigma just wanted on that wagon so he made up shaky statistics and then tried to back it up after the fact when pressed. If he had that paper ahead of time why would he wait until now to present it after all of this pressing on him? Why not just show it early to get rid of the suspicions early? Instead he just kept saying game theory over and over.

Probably because I suspected it was somewhat flawed, and didn't expect people to continue tunnelling me on it as well. And then I just played the lalalala game, then realised it would like be byebye me and bad for town if I continue so I thus I present this to you and everyone involved.

Also, agree with you on the townie train of thought for skitter with extra +++ and sprinkles on top.

@cardi are you an alt?

Duckling didn't post the replacement request publicly, so this is not some random. Probs a duckling's lover's RP alt. And then after writing this, I read 20 questions from Oka for her ... give up already. She ain't interested in you, but maybe interested in being vigbait.

So you think he just googled that paper when he was pressured to defend his vote?

The thing is that I'm kinda seeing those underlying assumptions all the way from the beginning of his iso, like all the way from his first posts - he def was thinking about this along these lines since like his first post imo

I guess with daytalk I kinda imagine what I would do and I would def have discussed my strategy with my partners, but yeah you have a point wrt uglyduck

Also okay maybe that doesn't make sense either

How about these scenarios

1. Enigma googles the paper primarily to try to find out what number

he

should pick, which would, like, make sense
2a. Enigma votes based on incomplete understanding of the paper (I still think the vote is kind of scummy because it's a way to look like you're scumhunting without actually scumhunting, remember my rvs vote in 1859?)

or

2b. Enigma votes because he wants to join the wagon, then makes up the link between his vote and the paper he already read because his vote was receiving negative attention

And regardless of which case it is I don't think the information contained in the paper is more interesting to town than it is to scum, so at best it's nai that he voted based on it and like he's still scummy in general

Porque no los dos (1 y 2a).

[Enigma]

To be honest, the vote I would get behind today would be Invisibility. The lack of association with other players, ignoring my wagon (scum buddies already on it) completely, posting votes with zero meaning or significance to slip under the radar, no scumhunting effort really, entire read of players being null + voting AP despite reading him null, etc. etc. the list goes on.

I don't like BuJaber, SkyGazer or Oka directions (for today). Cardi B lynch will provide no useful information at all today. Vulcan a null. Could be convinced on AP.

VOTE: Invisibility

PS: if he flips red, me feels SvS with AP.

[Enigma]

quacking quack quack quacking

[Enigma]

[Enigma]

why the bolded?

i think your argument with bujaber is indicative of a difference in playstyles tbh; i think he legitimately found you agreeing with brass to be scummy which is why he kept on harping on about it; it kinda reminded me of when i get tunneled on something and won't drop it and just keep arguing it do death even

and wrt ap's jovial nature i'm honestly kinda reminded of jungle republic here where he did very little for most of day1 and didn't really push anyone; most of his posts that day were jokes or memes or just kinda being there

Because it's a self serving vote from Enigma.

If you think that you're not reading my argument. I'm saying BuJaber has manufactured a situation where literally no matter what I said, he'd find me scummy. As part of that he thinks me agreeing with Brass was scummy, which I think is wrong. What's blatantly scummy is the manufactured scenario.

Jovial nature + 277 is why I'm TRing him, it's a combo deal.

Yeh probs self serving. Though I reckon any vote is self serving after being the prime lynch target earlier in the day. And not voting is a "wyyyy u no votz" scenario ... the suspicions won't dissipate as quick as the vote, but I'm fine with that.

@enigma - brass lynch is more informative than you think. There is definitely at least 1 scum that made up a fake reason not to vote for brass. If he flips town you look for ones that sound like they knew he was town and if he flips scum you look for ones that sound like they knew he was scum.
Also I'm town so if brass is town also they don't want to seem too eager to join the wagon, they'll take it slow because they want to try and spin it later to get me lynched too. If brass is scum they don't want to bus too early and attract attention or encourage town to join and risk him getting hammered.
And then there's the sando association. I know everyone who talked about it has disagreed so far but I believe it applies. Brass flip gives me info on Sando, and that is valuable because we are disagreeing on stuff I didn't even know people can disagree on.
Funny you say that about brass wagon while jumping on Invis. You really think invis has enough content that he's a more informative lynch than brass???!

Why do you not consider this the CardiB wagon? There is no CardiB wagon and hasn't been one yet. No one has voted brass this whole game but you, so that's like 10+ people you will need to POE for flip associations ... Plus I don't mind CardiB for now she got some mad lyrics.
There have been people voting invisibility on/off before this new wagon including your good mate brass, so some information there ... and well was hoping Invs would also pop back and comment as well

To be honest, the vote I would get behind today would be Invisibility. The lack of association with other players, ignoring my wagon (scum buddies already on it) completely, posting votes with zero meaning or significance to slip under the radar, no scumhunting effort really, entire read of players being null + voting AP despite reading him null, etc. etc. the list goes on.

I don't like BuJaber, SkyGazer or Oka directions (for today). Cardi B lynch will provide no useful information at all today. Vulcan a null. Could be convinced on AP.

VOTE: Invisibility

PS: if he flips red, me feels SvS with AP.

who do you think is scum on your wagon? why do you think AP + vizzy?

and yeah the bolded is basically the problem that i'm having with vizzy - i feel like he's lolvoting and setting down random votes that don't really seem to indicate an intent to sort the vote-ee; i feel more like he's looking for places to vote that won't cause super much controversy; he's like voting nulls but isn't interacting with them in anyway otherwise and he changes them at a drop of a hat without following up with the people he's voting

AP's post 351 felt a bit off to me, and he didn't really engage me at all during my whole wagon debacle or discuss otherwise. This was after he questioned CJ's vote CJ's lackluster, to which I thought CJ's response was somewhat lackluster but then AP overlooks/doesn't comment, but instead posts 351 to me. But mainly, there is quite a bit of subtle interaction with AP and invis but they haven't really properly engaged, which I find quite intriguing. A few other posts, but will discuss later since I just noticed hammer.

PS: The other slot I could be convinced to vote today - CJ

[Enigma]

VOTE: Vizzy

Where did this come from, and why not wait for Invs to respond to this wagon (that appeared rather quickly!) and give a chance to defend/explain himself?

[Enigma]

*Gulp!* I thought VIZZY self-voted. It turns out CJV put him @L-1. Yikes!

Anyway, you do you, I'll do me. Let's see if you can lynch me tomorrow regardless.

Ahh well, let's see the flip and deal with it tomorrow.

[Enigma]

[Enigma]

day one will end in 3 days, 8 hours, 47 minutes

How dare you

[Enigma]

If a town vig shot ruru, this might be useful information to share? No judging
Could help understanding reactions to the PGO claim, and also make a bit of sense of the night actions.

[Enigma]

i would have shot ruru if i was town vig

Sky pls judge Oka

[Enigma]

If a town vig shot ruru, this might be useful information to share? No judging
Could help understanding reactions to the PGO claim, and also make a bit of sense of the night actions.

I disagree with this. If a town vig did shoot ruru, they're effectively a VT now and this would narrow the pool of possible TPRs for scum.

On the other hand, potential TPRs could get caught out by a scum PGO activation - so this might also balance the risks involved. And I feel claiming would add some more certainty for everyone in interpreting D1 and N1 activities, rather than second guessing what ifs.

[Enigma]

PS: if he flips red, me feels SvS with AP.

I concur. I never trusted that AP guys. He's so cheeky and smug too. I'd much rather Jackie Chan in The Tuxedo, tbh. (Well, the bonus is JLH is still in The Tuxedo)

I am still suspicious of AP following Invs flip.

Spoiler: These Invs posts were why I got the feeling of something between AP and Invs.

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one. I think I want to sheep skitter for now.

VOTE: Oka

is this just a sheep?

VOTE: Oka
iso'd and actually im getting a gut ping here

anyway now i can do this
UNVOTE:
VOTE: AP

And Invis kept his vote on AP for the rest of D1.

---

Sando - leantown
skitter30 - town
AP - null
brassherald - slight townlean
BuJaber - townlean
Ausuka - town
Skygazer - null
vulcan logician - siteflaked?
ceejayvinoya - null
ruru - townlean actually
ofrhz - town
OkaPoka - townlean
Enigma - null

{AP, Skygazer, Ceejay, Enigma, vulcan}

VOTE: vulcan logician

I bet there is at least one scum in the bolded (hint, it's not me).

---

VOTE COUNT 1.9

Enigma (6)

~ Ausuka, Skygazer,

ruru

, ofrhz, skitter30, ceejayvinoya,

I imagine there is at least one scum on that wagon, just too easy of a reason not to.

VOTE COUNT 1.22

Invisibility (8)

~

ruru

, skitter30, Enigma, OkaPoka, Cardi B, ofrhz, ceejayvinoya, AP,

I also suspect there is at least one scum who jumped onto the Invs wagon, probably late when they realised my wagon was a no go for D1.

So my FOS from this early stage: AP, followed by CJ; then maybe Ausuka or ofrhz

[Enigma]

So yes, I'd say if mafia end up not having the pgo slot then we can probably start looking pretty hard at Skygazer.

On the other hand, if scum have the PGO/vig pair and if a townie somewhere mid/top of the draft went for the same pair and rolled VT - then it is possible from PoE to also get an idea of possible scum near the top of the draft.

[Enigma]

quack

[Enigma]

Trying to make sense of N1 (using PoE) and discussing hypo scenarios is pure fiction and time could be better invested looking at D1 play at this stage - considering we have no certainty of who killed town ruru.

[Enigma]

quack

[Enigma]

- AP: why did you hammer?

I mistook CJV's vote for an Invis self-vote, which in my mind translated to either scum gambitting to look like they didn't care or a VT (in which case it was still a better lynch than one that leads to a TPR claim).

Obviously ot was a mistake but one that paid off anyway, so I'm not sorry.

Hint: You better amuse me, cuz I actually typed the vote then decided not to put you @L-1 now

This is hard to believe. A townie (playing invs style) could put themselves at L-1 regardless of PR or VT, so it is a weak excuse here. For someone who took the time to deliberate voting me, it seems awfully convenient to slip accidentally on the invs wagon for the town cred. Invs was 90% sure to be lynched at that stage anyways ... a bit of LAMIST.

[Enigma]

-Can someone help me understand what ruru's strategy was? I don't get the town fakeclaim. A townie who knows she's lying will counterclaim and ruru likely gets lynched. And scum who know she's lying will NK her. And I think that's what happened. It's the most likely explanation in my mind.

I am one to claim I perfectly understand ruru's gambit (and I acknowledge I did from the very start too).

First off; PGO/1-shot Vig is rarely ever picked anyway, much less so by the #1 draft. ruru obviously was claiming a strong TPR that needed to try and evade the NK. If a Townie had the role they would not have CC'd if they knew what they were doing (and/ot if they knew ruru well enough). Scum would have also known she was lying if they did have the role, so I'm slightly leaning they do, but not ruling out someone in the scum team knows ruru well enough and called her bluff.

Well scum could perfectly understand ruru's gambit from the very beginning if they knew she was lying based off their own draft choices.

That said, ruru might have thought she's a prime NK target becaise she picked first, and -in that case- if a Doctor existed they'd be inclined to be on her. HOWEVER, Doctor may not be in play (it's Doc or RB), so it's better to self-protect and let the "possible" Doctor protect elsewhere.

A town JK could also protect ruru, and it is an option (though not as ideal as a doc). You could have flagged the possibility of that?

[Enigma]

I'm neighbourizer and through PoE from my neighbor's claim we discovered that there has to be a Vig/PGO in AP/Skitter/Oka/Vulcan which means that one of those players would know that a ruru kill would be safe

We think that Oka and Vulcan are town, though, and that AP would've used their one-shot last night

Could I ask, why did you feel you needed to have to claim to be able to state the PoE thought process? Why not just let Ausuka claim VT and allow her to push this logic without your claim?

[Enigma]

Ahaha once you breadcrumbed (or dropped an entire tray of bread, better to say) ... it was essentially your only option to follow through.

we realized that if AP had the role he would've likely taken the shot out of fear of being lynched

What does this line mean?

[Enigma]

It could have been a PGO role and not vig role, so no option to use vig regardless?

[Enigma]

Knowing what I know about the game given my role, this could really help

a lot

with game solving.

Did anyone vig ruru last night? Please answer honestly; I likely won't live into tomorrow given my role in the draft so I need to figure this out today.

But if you were so worried about dying, it didn't cross your mind just not to drop this huge crumb - and instead let the VT claim?

[Enigma]

Ahh but maybe scum has the RB (or no town doc for whatever reason).

Suppose, best to just wait to see what others/skitter say now. I wouldn't eliminate a few others from PoE at this stage, though I believe Oka would not have been able to contain himself if he knew it was a fakeclaim lol.

[Enigma]

I'm not convinced on the PoE of the draft pool really.
Skitter was one of the early ones onto the Invs lynch ... I mean she could have voted somewhere else as there was a complete lack of lynch targets late into D1. I feel there were three of us which got the Invs wagon going: skitter, myself and oka. Before that stage, it could have been feasible to start another wagon due to a complete absence of other counter wagons following my wagon crashing.

Skitter had the opportunity to drop back at L-4, but continue to insist Invs was a good lynch target. That's some good bussing if it is. Shortly after this (793), there was a rapid succession of lolvotes onto Invs leading to the lynch.

Oka was (still is) just throwing around votes everywhere and just seems generally confused and clueless ... and is easily influenced by the masses, something less likely as scum.

Still not sure on Vulcan and AP. I wouldn't not rule them out of scum pool, particularly AP given his interactions with Invs in D1.

Also, people need to be a bit more conscious about things they write/share, as some of the carefree slips here and there can help scum map out TPRs.

[Enigma]

I can neighbourize anyone, however in this set up each neighbourization action creates it's own individual neighborhood apparently

Sorry trying to get my head around this a bit..

@Sky
Do you mind sharing your thought process on why you targeted Ausuka for the neighbour? Could you elaborate more on why you think she is conf!town based on the neighbourhood discussion?

@Ausuka
Do you have any comments about how you feel on Sky's alignment/behaviour based on the neighbourhood PT?

[Enigma]

VOTE: Skygazer

there IS scum on enigma and the way she has tunneled the slot throughout the game feels icky. honestly getting townvibes from okapoka? {ofr, skitter} are still potential scum I suppose, gut says ofrhz is the townier of the two. ruru just feels obviously town, same with cjv if you count him.

Ausuka, particularly interested to know what made you changed since here?

[Enigma]

I think I'm here right now (town to scum):

skitter, bujaber, ceejay, ruru, okapoka
sando, AP
skygazer, vulcan, enigma
ausuka, cardi, invis

can you explain more of these reads ofrhz? specifically I'd want to hear the reasoning for your reads on me and cjv.

One more for Ausuka, why were you, after ruru flip, interested in ofrhz (+you/cjv) given she is the last one on the draft?

[Enigma]

probably the neighborizing

This is an invalid response

[Enigma]

I can neighbourize anyone, however in this set up each neighbourization action creates it's own individual neighborhood apparently

More detail/explaination required jaja

[Enigma]

I'm just be cautious about blindly following

[Enigma]

How does the neighbor thing work? From what I gathered in the wiki, if the neighborizer targets scum, they die. Doesn't that confirm Ausuka as town? It seems that's not the case going by what you guys are posting.

I dunno what you read on the wiki. To me a Neighborizer will only die of targetting scum if they have a Weak modifier attached to their role.

Yeah, I misread the wiki when it was discussing a variation of the role. That really doesn't help us as much as I was thinking. Either Ausuka or Sky could be scum (Sky possibly taking the role to seem towny... hence her being so obvious that Oka figured it out). Though I suppose this development pretty much eliminates the possibility of them being a team. That's something.

You would have to be pretty daft not to notice. She was busting to spill the beans.... Agree, definitely not a team, but some additional clarity on the relationship would be helpful to figure out where I want to stand.

[Enigma]

Sorry Sky meant why you were town reading Ausuka, but you've responded to that already
Just waiting to see what Ausuka says before I think I'll be able to figure out where I want to stand.

[Enigma]

I can give the gist of it if you don't want to wait since she's in Spain?

If you want to sure, but I also don't mind waiting. I'm in Spain ... but working ;( and it's so hot

[Enigma]

In post 1031, Enigma wrote:
Oka was (still is) just throwing around votes everywhere and just seems generally confused and clueless ... and is easily influenced by the masses, something less likely as scum.


why do you think this is less likely to come from scum?

Scum I would expect to have a strategy/goal and some idea of what is happening. Oka is just running around in every direction without a proper strategy or clue, and I really doubt (sorry) Oka could pull of such an elaborate scheme based on his current play style.

---

I'm happy to consider Ausuka and Sky out of the scum pool for now, based on their responses, thought chains and interactions so far.

Out of the remaining potential scum pool if we go by draft, this is where I think (based on gut and quick skim reading):
[likely scum] vulcan > AP >> Skitter >> Oka [likely town]
VOTE: vulcan

Bit time constrained to break down and analyse + write all of his interactions for the moment, but happy to put my vote here and as he said, get a counter wagon going to skitter

[Enigma]

duckling wants to modkill me for quacking, try me

QUACK

[Enigma]

how is voting everyone an elaborate scheme as scum?

I'm saying I don't think you could fake your current play (i.e. generally lost on where you want to vote/pressure and voting everyone without much logic/reason) as scum, and it would be elaborate if you did (well you would have me fooled...)

[Enigma]

Willing to hammer btw.

[Enigma]

-Can someone help me understand what ruru's strategy was? I don't get the town fakeclaim. A townie who knows she's lying will counterclaim and ruru likely gets lynched. And scum who know she's lying will NK her. And I think that's what happened. It's the most likely explanation in my mind.

I am one to claim I perfectly understand ruru's gambit (and I acknowledge I did from the very start too).

First off; PGO/1-shot Vig is rarely ever picked anyway, much less so by the #1 draft. ruru obviously was claiming a strong TPR that needed to try and evade the NK. If a Townie had the role they would not have CC'd if they knew what they were doing (and/ot if they knew ruru well enough). Scum would have also known she was lying if they did have the role, so I'm slightly leaning they do, but not ruling out someone in the scum team knows ruru well enough and called her bluff.

- AP: why did you hammer?

I mistook CJV's vote for an Invis self-vote, which in my mind translated to either scum gambitting to look like they didn't care or a VT (in which case it was still a better lynch than one that leads to a TPR claim).

Obviously ot was a mistake but one that paid off anyway, so I'm not sorry.

Hint: You better amuse me, cuz I actually typed the vote then decided not to put you @L-1 now

This is hard to believe. A townie (playing invs style) could put themselves at L-1 regardless of PR or VT, so it is a weak excuse here. For someone who took the time to deliberate voting me, it seems awfully convenient to slip accidentally on the invs wagon for the town cred. Invs was 90% sure to be lynched at that stage anyways ... a bit of LAMIST.

Trust me, if I was scum with him I would've instructed him to claim COP to bait a CC before we lynched him.

Uggg these two above posts tick me off following the claim. You knew ruru's gambit (how were you so sure?), and took a big risk (which failed) by not targeting her (would you not assume if she was lying, there was a good probability this would happen with the scum knowing she was lying by their drafts)...
---
Not sure what to think. The doc is a convenient claim ... since scum could have easily gone for RB.

Thinking this out loud for me:
AP scum RB
This means the scum vig/PGO is between

Oka, Sky,

Skitter (likely town) or vulcan (possible scum).

AP scum vig
Fake claiming to draw real doc out?

AP town doc
Vulcan likely scum, maybe Skitter but I TR her and the others.

AP, assuming you are town - who do you think is the scum (RB/vig pick) above Ausuka (your own reads pls)?
---

Seriously though

ruru is 100% town to me.
ofrhz and Oka are next level town
I think Enigma might be town

Everyone else is more or less "in the mix", and while I don't have an explicit scum read yet I might be inclined to pressure the lower numbers (outside of those I think are town already), so Sky > Vulcan > Vizzy > Skitter ... etc

Can someone interpret this for me? Is he saying Sky is town or scum?

AP what are your reads?

There are pros and cons to everyone playing how they play having picked what they picked as either alignment.

That is to say, I can see Sky playing the way she does as either alignment, and it's almost a given she got her PR of choice regardless of her alignment. (Unless she sent for Vig/PGO ) and so on. In the previous run of this setup I did try a similar approach and it backfired because I assumed those who picked the lowest numbers were scum and those who had duplicate picks had one scum in then at most .. etc, which made my reads based on the draft numbers alone a mess.

Here I read it as he is unsure of Sky being town, yet he protected her?? And then zero comment on the whole neighbour issue?
---
I also feel it likely scum goes for the Vig instead of the PGO ... I mean it is a guaranteed NK. Fucking role spec and assuming that: this would mean either ruru stopped a kill (great we don't know who it is), scum tried to kill Sky and doc save worked (maybe), or they didn't shoot (potential, because scum cannot do action and kill at the same time). To sum up this stupid role spec: I'm confused ahaha and not sure I can trust/distrust AP's claim.

[Enigma]

ap still might be scum because thats the rb slot

but

there is one other scum in here that we have to find

VOTE: skitter30

If AP could be scum, you still think there is a scum above Ausuka? I.e. in Skitter or vulcan?

[Enigma]

*Sigh*

I'm the bloody Doctor! I was on Sky last night because I

also

thought scum could fall for ruru's gambit and not target her, so I went for 2nd on draft.

Can you pls explain the "also"?

[Enigma]

Seriously though

ruru is 100% town to me.
ofrhz and Oka are next level town
I think Enigma might be town

Everyone else is more or less "in the mix", and while I don't have an explicit scum read yet I might be inclined to pressure the lower numbers (outside of those I think are town already), so Sky > Vulcan > Vizzy > Skitter ... etc

Can someone interpret this for me? Is he saying Sky is town or scum?

AP what are your reads?

There are pros and cons to everyone playing how they play having picked what they picked as either alignment.

That is to say, I can see Sky playing the way she does as either alignment, and it's almost a given she got her PR of choice regardless of her alignment. (Unless she sent for Vig/PGO ) and so on. In the previous run of this setup I did try a similar approach and it backfired because I assumed those who picked the lowest numbers were scum and those who had duplicate picks had one scum in then at most .. etc, which made my reads based on the draft numbers alone a mess.

Here I read it as he is unsure of Sky being town, yet he protected her?? And then zero comment on the whole neighbour issue?

Can someone pls give a second opinion on this?

[Enigma]

1) he wants to get the people who he hasn't marked town to start talking from top to bottom from draft order im pretty sure, so sky is the person he wants to pressure into doing stuff (ironic xd)
2) i share same feelings with u

Uggh this is making me dislike his claim, if he is town reading you and nulling Sky (just before end of D1 mind you), why did he not target you instead (as #3 draft, and likely to also have a TPR)? All his previous posts have not seemed to suggest he thinks Sky is prob town, yet he protects her?

Could others also please comment on this? Maybe it's just me from having suspected him as scum since end of D1, I'm reluctant to see the opposite.

[Enigma]

We should stop claiming or saying what we didn’t get. Good for scum to find town TPRs.
Pretty sure I feel like AP lynch for today anyways even without CC. Feels scum. Let’s see though if others CC for easy lynch.

[Enigma]

Are you sure it’s a good idea to put TPRs if there is potentially no town doc?

[Enigma]

Quack

[Enigma]

Quack isn’t he saying skitter Vulcan and him claim if no town doc CC?

[Enigma]

Yeh suppose we are just waiting on comments on AP lynch (and any CCs) from Cardi and vulcan, who are both needing prods now. And Music should be back from V/LA soon ...

[Enigma]

Not doctor

AP bein RB would prolly have targeted skygazer?

More catchin up at some point

But Sky's action was a success so not sure if this is the case.

[Enigma]

Can we just skip the mass claim bit (it benefits scum, especially if he has the RB/doc slot) and just lynch him?
Seems most of us are pretty sure he is lying.

DUCKLING HOW DARE YOU

---

try me I dare you I OWN this thread >:(
~ tw

[Enigma]

Suppose we let AP live in case he actually is the doc (he'll be screwed anyways tonight in that case, though hopefully we have a town watcher (who hasn't used their one shot)), who would you lynch if we didn't go down this mass claim route?

[Enigma]

Above is @Cardi

[Enigma]

*Sigh*

I'm the bloody Doctor! I was on Sky last night because I

also

thought scum could fall for ruru's gambit and not target her, so I went for 2nd on draft.

Can you pls explain the "also"?

Obviously ruru thought they'd fall for it (or she wouldn't have done it)

Ok,

assuming

you are telling the truth,
Do you buy the 1 scum (PGO/vig) above Ausuka theory? If so, who do you think is the scum? PGO/Vig?
Any other scum reads?

[Enigma]

I want vulcan to come back and add some clarity ahaha

[Enigma]

Well while we wait, should we have an honest discussion of a full massclaim?

Personally think it is a bad idea. With a potential doc exposed, scum will just be giggling about which PRs to kill off if we mass claim saying goodbye to any investigative roles in N3 onwards, assuming AP dies (which btw if he doesn't die today or tonight, he dies tomorrow day). Keeping in mind town has no RB and no JK either.

Maybe when there is one scum left and odds of losing are almost nil by PoE, but with two scum still in the play I think it can wait a bit. This also means we can't just get people to L-1, trust their (fake)claims and don't commit to lynch and move onto another target as it will become the equivalent of a mass claim anyways since so many PRs in this game.

[Enigma]

I'm just posting for the sake of posting

[Enigma]

Hello everyone, I have arrived back from my trip and I'm officially off of V/LA. I'll have to do other things beforehand, but feel free to ask any questions for me to answer before catching up.

Probs the main thing to look at is from from yesterday, AP was L-1 and then claimed doc and now we are trying to figure out if we want to lynch him or not haha through a very slow and dull process of CC (none so far, but he could be RB).

When you read, probs keep that in mind and try to share an opinion on what you think

[Enigma]

ahaha skitter is v/la during weekends. You'll need to think of something to do in the meantime.

@Vulcan and Music, thoughts on AP wagon/claim?

[Enigma]

and if you are vt skitter, i think its worth it for you to come out with what you submitted in order to verify claims and such

Don’t do this until we have a consensus on mass claiming pls.

[Enigma]

Skitter already mentioned she doesn’t CC

[Enigma]

You left AP out btw.

All you are going to do is expose potential powerful TPRs with potentially no or soon to be dead doc. There are other ways of scum hunting and we don’t need claims... you can lynch without claims and regardless of claims if you read and pressure properly ...
You’ve already dropped several times you have a shitty TPR or VT, so you might not care. But others might not be in the same situation.

Whatever we see what others say but this is not the best way IMO.

[Enigma]

Likely. There’s also the chance that no one picked certain slots (doc/rb, i.e. AP is the scum PGO/vig and is trying to fake claim and draw out real doc but that pair is actually empty) because we are too WIFOMy lol (not the first time see past games).

I don’t think anyone should claim, VT or PR ... it helps scum more than town (they can better POE) as we are in a bad spot with protective/rb roles.

[Enigma]

so what are you suggesting the game plan be then?

1. Discuss AP's claim. Figure out if we want to lynch him.
2. If we decide not to lynch him, read/vote/pressure/rationalise and scum hunt the good old way.

[Enigma]

There is also the huge WIFOMy potential if AP is left alive. Scum can try to snipe doc, and won't necessarily target him.
Additionally, assuming we don't get the lynch on the vig, we don't even know how many NKs are in place (so if we get one kill tonight, we don't know if that's because of a protect or what...)

I also own page tops kthx quack quavk

PEDIT: WHAT THE FUCKING DUCKING

[Enigma]

The rate at which the counter wagon has picked up is surprisingly sus...

[Enigma]

Oka wanna see something exciting?

[Enigma]

VOTE: AP

Thx for being patient y'all, sorry I dragged this out (actually not really). But I know 100% that AP is lying. Since I missed the hammer I thought I would play along a bit and it was also fun watch Oka get frustrated. Seems we have reached as much as we will, and going into claims will wreck the next part of my plan.

Before someone like Oka tells me to claim, I think this is a terrible idea. I am either essentially a VT (1-shot watcher) or still have PR powers (cop). This just adds a bit of extra fun to the last remaining scum to figure out if they want to target me tonight or not and essentially gives other TPRs a slightly better chance of surviving.

What we see from this past few rl days is:
1. AP is scum lynch him
2. Vulcan is very unlikely to be scum, no way AP would bus him in the position he is in having just escaped a potential lynch (or so he thought)
3. People who jumped on the vulcan wagon (thinking AP got away for today and hoping to push a mislynch) are good candidates to be scum (i.e. Cardi and CJ)
4. Those who critiqued his claim, hesitant to believe it and still intending to vote him get town points (Skitter, Sky)
5. Those who didn't know that he was lying and were trying to find the remaining scum in the pool above Ausuka get town points (Oka, Sando, Sky, Ausuka)
6. AP unlikely to bus last scum position that he is in so his suspect list get town points (Skitter, Oka, Vulcan)
7. AP likely to be scum PGO/1-shot vig slot (since town reads on the above slots) and thus lying about doc claim
8. Maybe there could even be doc with town who didn't CC, and they can add even more WIFOMy for the last scum for tonight (FYI: I don't wanna die tonight btw)
9. AP is scum btw if you forgot.

How to win this game:
1. Lynch AP
2. Lynch CardiB
3. Lynch CJ
4. If we haven't won by then, lynch Music/orfhz

I can't quite figure CJ or CardiB, people are giving CJ townreads - I don't agree with them necessarily. Also, there was likely a scum on my wagon D1 (i.e. CJ), otherwise it would be quite impressive if we got the wagon solo with townies.

This also means scum are screwed tonight if their last role is a PR, since they can't kill and PR at the same time. GLHF.

[Enigma]

Let's quick lynch this shit so scum don't get to plan and duckling can flip AP when duckling wakes up.

VOTE: AP
VOTE: AP
VOTE: AP
VOTE: AP
VOTE: AP

[Enigma]

I don't see your vote on AP Sando

[Enigma]

Sure

[Enigma]

Quack, I know duck is online

[Enigma]

Quick lynch this pls Music, AP is locked out of scum chat as soon as duckling flips his scummy arse.
Scum is now L-1

[Enigma]

Not sure I agree with tomorrow's progression.

Let's see what role he flips as well. I made a few assumptions along the way

[Enigma]

Oh hi, I'm still alive ... interesting.

Vulcan you aren't supposed to claim yet! Btw, could you pls comment on AP lynch and his (fake) claim?

[Enigma]

Oh FYI pretty much 100% that last scum is RBer, and since there was a kill last night they didn't RB. So you didn't get RBd PRs, although you could have been jailed.

Scum cant kill and night action at the same time, so the last scum even with a PR is essentially a good.

[Enigma]

goon*

[Enigma]

Agree with skitter here. Eod vc yesterday says Vulcan has to be town. I think Cardi is last scum.

But skitter also says she thinks you are the last scum in the same bit

[Enigma]

yep; you're conftown mechanically if you neighborize someone the same night scum kills, as will be anyone else who has a confirmable result

i think we're pretty close to the place where we can solve tis mechanically

(you're kinda obvtown independently of that; i'm talking from a mechanics perspective)

I do town read Sky, but just want to point out mechanically this is not guaranteed for Sky as we can't confirm her neighbourizer going through last night. That being said, if there are people who have confirmable night actions from last night (if there is anyone), they are confirmed town.

[Enigma]

full disclosure now:

I'm not ready to go into full paranoia mode yet and I'm still townreading Ausuka but I think this is important for town to know down the road in case I die:
I tried to neighbourize Oka
Ausuka knew I was going to try to neighbourize Oka
I had pointed out how it appeared that Oka seemed to have softclaimed a weak investigative role

granted, Oka was still a really obvious choice for a NK considering their placement in the draft

Ahh tbh I thought Oka was doing the opposite of soft-claiming a weak investigative role.

oh great

we have a potentially have a weak town investigative sided setup for town

This is where I shouted at "the group" (i.e. Oka) to stop crumbing potential info to scum.

[Enigma]

Number one lesson/analysis from this mass claim is .... GG town sucks at drafting Though, we doing pretty good without solid PRs.
Shall I claim or can we just start lynching? Why is there no doc, and why am I alive?

Why is vulcan acting so scummy, despite game state suggesting he shouldn't be scum

[Enigma]

If I'm lyin and I'm secretly a cop or sommn I have an inno on Vulcan.

And wtf is this?

[Enigma]

Ok if I'm cop/TPR/something, I hypo inno skitter.
I think I want to vote CJ. I don't think there is any way to definitively find scum based on the claims?

[Enigma]

I think trying to scum hunt through draft and setup is gunna be difficult. I mean scum can easily claim VT and choose a safe failed pick. Can we just find the last scum through their scummy play/intentions instead?

I still feel CJ as potential last scum due to interactions on the vulcan cw yesterday - and feel there is likely to be scum on my wagon D1, with CJ being the logical choice from PoE.

cj is town

100%

Can someone help me understand this part?

[Enigma]

If I'm lyin and I'm secretly a cop or sommn I have an inno on Vulcan.

And wtf is this?

Im sayin if im lyin about bein VT, an Im actually a cop or a universal backup or summn, I know that vulcans town.

Cardi, if you are the JK through universal backup, pls confirm (it is not such a bad idea trust me pls).

[Enigma]

ruru - Jailkeeper (so no tracker)
Sky - Neighbourizer (so no fruit vendor)
Oka - Vengeful (so no N3 vig)
Vulcan - VT (attempted ???)
Invis - VT (attempted ???)
AP - PGO (so no 1-shot vig)
skitter - VT (attempted Neighbour)
Ausuka - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)
Cardi - VT
Enigma - cop/1-shot watcher?
music - VT (attempted N3 vig)
Sando - VT (attempted vengeful)
CJ - VT (attempted vengeful)
ofrhz - VT (attempted 1-shot vig)

Updated

[Enigma]

Brass picked n3 vig if Im not cop. If Im cop he took cop.

If you are cop can you give your second hypo-inno?

[Enigma]

Ya Girl's Toughts From Befo D2

• Invizzibility votes listed from most probly not partner to least probly: skitterskitter, engingma, AP, ofhrz, okapoka, C J Vinny. For bookeepin reasons Id put ruru at the front a that. CJVinnys the only one there I wouldnt say I thinka them more town after vizzy flip. Okapoka sticks out 2 me as the only one that seemed to be wafflin around the wagon a bit, a lotta other people on wagon were like "I think invis scummy les wagon yaak yaak yaak" whereas oka had some different minds about it around that time. I still thinks his vote comes from town a lil bit more offen, 784 basiclly means "lets all go head and lynch vizzy now" and it still wasnt a given at that point. CJs vote jus seems like a hop on to me especially seeins as I cant imagine him doin anything to fight the wagon. He seem like someone easy 2 meta read tho and I think people were talking abou that 2day but I forget.
  
• Brassheral had that shmoneymoneymoney vote that I took off when I walk in eoowww.
  
• 760 soundz like AP is town to me.
  
• 459 feelz like his full townreads woul all be town. Ausukas the only one Id be worried about but wit the neighborizer stuff 2day I seen thats less of concerned.

VOTE: vulcan dude is my preffence right now.

During D2 you vote vulcan, and you also put Oka on your scum read list ... come on

[Enigma]

woof

[Enigma]

V/C pls

[Enigma]

I don't speak/think Carbi, can someone tell me if the above makes sense - my brain hurts from reading her RP.
The read list from Cardi, as I read it - Oka is good candidate for partner with invs. Then she proceeds to say Oka behaviour is more town? Me confused help pls.
If as you claim N1 on Oka (i.e. ino result), then this is inconsistent and you bluffing gal.

I'm trying to figure it out because I wanna decide if I should vote Cardi or vulcan today.

[Enigma]

None of the cop reads/claims/targets make sense at all from rational town play.

Ofc, maybe Cardi is just an irrational gal, but I can we get her to L-1 and make her get her story straight

[Enigma]

The thing U think is a readlist is not a readlist. Its me listing the ppl who voted Invisibility and then giving my thoughts on each of them. Oka was toward the end of that list but I still thought he was town.

As I said, if Im cop, Its not in my intrest to act perfectly in line wit the results Im claiming, bc then I get shot.

I hypo-claimed and I am still alive...

The way I see it is:
Town Cardi = vulcan town (or really fail Cardi...)
Scum Cardi = vulcan town

[Enigma]

I still like my original idea of lynching CJ/Cardi in no particular order, but CJ will do for now.

VOTE: CJ
choo choo

[Enigma]

L-1 btw

[Enigma]

Well we can let CJ come back first and comment perhaps, particularly on 1435.

[Enigma]

I think Vulcan is a muchos better lynch than CJ at this point.

I’m just a bit less hesitant on Vulcan as I feel it would have been an impressive effort to bus Vulcan so hard with AP on L-1 yesterday. Though vulcan’s play has not been the most townie, I think there are scummier slots (and draft positions).

[Enigma]

So if it isn’t obvious, I’m the watcher not the cop. I’m not sure how much I buy her claim but yeh...
Cardi with her very obvious crumbing has kinda made herself a NK target anyways.

I suppose there are two ways tonight will turn out assuming we lynch CJ today.
If Cardi dies then we get rid of a suspicious slot and Vulcan is town if she flips cop.
If she doesn’t die, she should be lynched (at least before LYLO). However this means she gets to clear a few more town slots so we will have an overwhelming town block, assuming she is cop.

TLDR: It is hard for town to lose this regardless. I reckon flip CJ, if Cardi doesn’t die then lynch her tomorrow. If she does, lynch Vulcan.

[Enigma]

I’ve been very disappointed by the lack of vote counts at the top of the page this game. This mod.....
Good to hear duckling is healthy tho.

[Enigma]

Quack quack

[Enigma]

Quaxk

[Enigma]

set to public sorry

I will get PTs up I need to get to a PC that doesn't have mafiascum.net blocked!!!

*waiting*