Mini 2014: Succinct Mafia (Over)

[Ankamius]

Heya

I'm going to be doing my own investigation and see what it comes up with, but I have a couple questions also:

1. How did we lynch our PRs day one and day two
2. How did we lynch two scum immediately afterwards
3. What are the most important parts of the game to read through to have an idea of where to start?

[Ankamius]

I found some interesting stuff

Can everyone here point to around 2-4 posts indicating roughly why your reads are the way they are (or more if it requires it, I'm actually not too picky about that) so I can cross-reference with my own thoughts?

The extent of my 'reads' is just a single strong townread and that's not quite enough for me, as well as not being a confident-type read that I'd be willing to lock.

[Ankamius]

This game is fun

[Ankamius]

Thanks Hiraki

I appreciate the help

[Ankamius]

Cool

Your thoughts will never impact my vote when they're stuck in your head

[Ankamius]

uh... I forgot about this game

Pine you need to get on eevee

I don't vote for people I think are Town, and I don't appreciate the implied threat there.

intent

Pine you need to get on eevee

I don't vote for people I think are Town, and I don't appreciate the implied threat there.

intent

Sigh

You fuckers

I'm the doctor. Back off

not buying it

@Ank I would look here and then MafMen’s (now Trinity’s reaction)

Dunn + Pine doesn’t make sense here. Between the posts that don’t happen with daychat this doesn’t either.

Pine was widely scumread at this point in the game. I don’t see scum going “Hey do intent so we can get the protective out of your lynch”

I was still arguing rather loudly I didn’t think Pine was scum and there was a lot of motion towards other wagons.

There was a lot of wagoning of Eevee (the protective) as well. That helps to influence my read.

Therefore Dunn is a townread. As I said earlier Lycanfire doesn’t throw that hissy fit as scum.

So to me it’s between Trinity and Hiraki and I will respond to the rest of the posts later tonight or tomorrow

this seems sound on the surface but I'll need to confirm it myself, it's not entirely impossible to me that it was a sort of power play in order to solidify scum's position for later on if Pine was that significantly scumread

[Ankamius]

Just on recent stuff

Trinity looks townish
Mathblade looks townish
Dunnstral and Hiraki both don't look all that great

[Ankamius]

VOTE: TrinityNZ

Ank do something......

me replacing in was probably a mistake, tbh

my lack of presence is RL related... kind of, more of a ripple effect than an actual direct cause

I'm trying, though

I'm hoping to have some kind of read on the game by the end of tomorrow

[Ankamius]

nah it's Hiraki

UNVOTE: Hiraki
VOTE: Hiraki

[Ankamius]

Hiraki makes total sense as the last scum with these kills

the way Pine+Jingle's combined ISOs look combined with the kill targets/order points to Hiraki

I don't like his response to my entrance into the game and his ISO throughout day four or roughly there is unimpressive

if this isn't scum, then I think I need to really do a deep scrub on the game (which I... kind of dread tbh), but I think this has the highest likelihood of being scum.

at the very least, a Hiraki townflip would color the gamestate in a way that I believe I can read depending on who the nightkill is

[Ankamius]

you're right

deadline was productive

(#4 in 24)

[Ankamius]

why do I get the feeling that a mathblade kill confscums trinitynz

[Ankamius]

why does it have to be dunnstral and not me

[Ankamius]

Captains Log:

I think it's just me and a couple of corpses here today. Some kind of measures might need to be taken in order to ensure a fair and orderly trial for all participants.

I might need an ice cream at this rate.

[Ankamius]

do you think Dunnstral died during the night and the game hasn't caught up yet

[Ankamius]

Why Trinity

[Ankamius]

Can I just

[Ankamius]

Do I need to :EFFORT:

[Ankamius]

Mathblade is the only person here I would kill last night, yes

The problem is that he sort of objectively was about the only good kill without directly causing a mess of information to suddenly appear, the gamestate almost necessitated him dying

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Dunnstral

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Dunnstral

Made you look!

[Ankamius]

I'm just not motivated to hunt through the thread, honestly.

But I have a vacation coming up before too long so I don't have really any excuse not to have the game solved within around a week

[Ankamius]

Idk what you mean by strategy

Mine is to vote when I'm confident in a scumread

[Ankamius]

Read through the thread and note things as I see them, mainly

Idk, might need to ask questions but that's the general plan at least

[Ankamius]

Oh it probably is

[Ankamius]

Oh, general strategy for LyLo?

I don't have a lot of LyLo games, tbh. Most of the time as scum I'm caught long before then, and as town I'm generally nightkilled before LyLo unless I'm completely disengaged. BUT, I'm also the designated mislynch when I'm in that scenario, so it's easy to just look through the thread at the last scum and build a case on them. The one game I was in LyLo as town without being the designated mislynch, I had the last scum caught at day start and simply failed to convince the second other town to vote alongside me since I had burned all my influence with them beforehand.

But, general strategy for scum... well, that's hard to really answer since scum-me would never have pushed Hiraki down Day Five like I did.

[Ankamius]

popping in before work to specifically not hammer

[Ankamius]

okay so I'm going through the thread now while I have some time and have any modicum of motivation (I've had basically zero motivation for mafia at all in weeks, so I'm abusing this while I can)

if either of you would like to case each other or detail why it doesn't make sense for you to be town (with quoted reasoning attached), then that would be very helpful

otherwise I'm hoping to have the entire game read and a decision mostly made before I go to sleep tonight

...because if I don't, it'll be weeks again before I want to...

[Ankamius]

I'm over halfway through (up to the eevee lynch) and one slot is looking fairly scum while the other is looking fairly town (both fairly consistently too)

I think this game is close to a wrap but I still will take into account what either of you want to say over the next 12ish hours if there's anything I might be missing regarding thought processes and the like

[Ankamius]

alright I'm here and both posts have been taken into account, lemme think on it briefly before I cast my vote

[Ankamius]

(and don't worry I'm not going to give a deadline and miss it by another twelve hours again like I did today like a grade A chump)

[Ankamius]

Okay, so even though I don't have a whole lot of experience in LyLo (predominantly when I'm in LyLo, it's more I'm the designated mislynch due to being heavily disengaged), I should in theory have the correct type of mindset for solving games that reach this point.

First of all, just looking back throughout the first couple of in-game days, there's a big discrepancy between SirCakez and Dunnstral in how they post. Dunnstral throughout the game hasn't had very many particularly impressive sounding posts and he has had one of the worst track records in the entire game with activity (only beaten by myself), but I've been able to roughly piece together what his thought processes are when he does post. SirCakez, however, doesn't have an underlying thought process behind what he posts, his posting is weirdly jagged and all over the place.

With interactions, I'm ignoring Kokichi entirely because I'm pretty well convinced by this point that trying to analyze anything that Kokichi does is just a waste of time in pretty much every context. But, Pine has some really interesting interactions. Mainly, his interactions with Dunnstral don't strike me at all as a SvS mindset, it strikes me more as a "Dunnstral that doesn't know that Pine is scum" and a "Pine that knows Dunnstral is town" type interaction. The way that they interact doesn't really gel with how I'm reading Pine playing through the game. The Cakez slot... has interestingly few interactions with Pine, which makes me wonder if it's on purpose.

Regarding kills, I think a lot of them were targeted at the more active people in the game. Momrangal is the only one that I don't quite get under this umbrella, but that can be explained away by Kokichi being replaced out on Day Two, since... well, it's Kokichi. He probably has drastically different priorities in scumkills than most other players. The rest I don't remember especially having great reads from what I saw. But Umlaut was highly engaged, Wisdom was highly engaged, LuckyOtter was highly engaged, and Mathblade was highly engaged. I firmly believe that scum were looking to bank on apathy and general disinterest to hide the last scum, which could even have been as a result of Pine having to claim doctor on day two. This indicates to me that the last scum's scumgame is likely weak. This in turn makes me think that it's unlikely I'm having the wool specifically pulled over my eyes in order to be manipulated into this situation. It doesn't feel planned enough for that to be the case, so I'm more confident that the reads that jump out to me are more likely to be correct than the ones I would probably get from deeply analyzing the game.

Now, the last thing that really jumps out to me is the responses I got when I reaction tested both slots today. Both slots... honestly had disappointing results. However, Dunnstral's response was more town than Trinity's was. Dunnstral pushed a point I made and didn't take the bait I laid for him. I think scum-him would've been warier with the language I was using to describe my read, primarily, although this is kind of weak and isn't very convincing as a town tell. However, I laid a different trap for Trinity at the start of the day, which she set off squarely in a scum-mindset way. It was a deflection of my suspicion rather than an attempt to sort me or an effort to actually convince me that Dunnstral was scum over her.

That's ultimately what I think is going on here. Dunnstral, while his content by itself isn't particularly impressive, shines as a reasonable town slot in a game where he just got put under a lot of fire as one of scum's designated winning mislynches. SirCakez/TrinityNZ (I'm not counting Magna's... threeish posts) both had weird thought processes, bad interactions with flipped scum, and overall just don't match with the game as town. Everything I'm seeing points to Trinity being the last scum.

Fingers crossed.

VOTE: TrinityNZ

[Ankamius]

well this is why I'm going back to retirement

[Ankamius]

tbf Cakez kinda ruined your slot for me

his day one was really really sketchy

[Ankamius]

I'm sorry guys

I felt it would've been cruel to both Trinity and Dunnstral regardless of alignment for me to replace out with the type of situation the game ended up in, but my general motivation towards the game overall basically destroyed my ability to analyze it like I should have. I did skim through the entire thread while I had the motivation to do that much, but... :/

One thing I will mention is that I did oversell my Hiraki scumread by a good amount, I actually wasn't very convinced about a Hiraki scumflip at all. I mainly pushed it through both because it's easy to towncase myself making that move as well as removes the biggest distraction from hitting 3p LyLo. I was expecting to use the nightkill as a scumhunting tool mainly to sort Mathblade, so it was... kind of weird to see that he died.

Either way, this was a fun novelty mechanic, even if the most fun part about it was breaking every single rule the same post that I made the hammer vote. I'm disappointed that there weren't a bunch of infraction posts before the flip

[Ankamius]

I also had it in my head for some reason that the Mathblade kill was an inexperience tell even though the grounds for that assumption are kind of nonexistent in a Jingle+Pine scumteam game

like I used it as a reaction test and then started actually believing it

???