Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

Jingle · Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:22 am

In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!

Ffs. Not lynching today loses us a mislynch. Does anyone read what I type?

Jingle · Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:29 am

In post 999, GuiltyLion wrote:I still think Ari is playing a more logical mime game than IV

but the IV activity fall off is really becoming more and more of a relevant concern. I've played with town IV a few times before and I cannot remember him ever being this non-engaged

Hence why I’m saying lynch the slot. If it’s not mafia, it’s either mime or so antitown that the game is unwinnable.

If Thor leaves not mafia IV alive, he’s gambling on it being not mime. And it’s top contender for mime.

Jingle · Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:32 am

We lynch the slot tomorrow, for the record.

Jingle · Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:33 am

Oh, hey. I have more posts than Thor.

Jingle · Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:46 am

In post 1002, Jingle wrote:We lynch the slot tomorrow, for the record.

Or, I guess, the day after tomorrow.

If we no lynch for deadline, I have at least one theory post to make tomorrow, so don’t rush the Thor lynch.

Jingle · Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:51 am

In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!

Rank the four possible lynches in order of most likely to least likely to be mime.

Aristophanes · Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:52 am

GL
ICV
Fink
Jingle

Probably

Jingle · Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:55 am

Also, @mime: at least two members of town have offered to mimeside and kingmaker you in 3p. Outing yourself by blocking Thor isn’t the worst plan ever, especially if you’re a likely nightkill.

Eragon · Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:55 am

In post 1007, Jingle wrote:Also, @mime: at least two members of town have offered to mimeside and kingmaker you in 3p. Outing yourself by blocking Thor isn’t the worst plan ever, especially if you’re a likely nightkill.

I’d only advocate that if mafia breaks their deal

Eragon · Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:56 am

In post 994, Thor665 wrote:
In post 988, Eragon wrote:its cute that you think i couldnt lynch your ass right now if you wont help us
I fully believe you could - but it would be anti-town to do so.

In post 988, Eragon wrote:ill even give you the third option of GL

so literally just dont shoot me/aristophanes and your fine
I agree not to shoot you if I'm alive come night.
You can decide to lynch me either now or then - but lynching me before the Mime is dead is signing your own death warrent and basically handing the game to the Mime or Mafia faction so, y'know, whatevs. I can't control who town lynches or doesn't today, all I can say is the likely result of any given action.

Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game

Eragon · Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:57 am

In post 1005, Jingle wrote:
In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!
Rank the four possible lynches in order of most likely to least likely to be mime.

Thor > Thor > No lynch > Eragon

/s

Legit anyone could be mime rn

Jingle · Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:09 am

In post 1006, Aristophanes wrote:GL
ICV
Fink
Jingle

Probably

And you think I’m just straight up town? So if Fink is mafia, we have to lynch him before we run out of possible mimes or we lose the game or we lose.

Not taking the chance today means relying on mafia to have more accurate mime reads than you. Id rather lynch the person who is both unlikely to be mime and likely to be mafia than give up a shot at lynching mafia. If either fink or I are mime, odds are we’re not getting shot today and we’re in this same place tomorrow. Taking the leap now versus tomorrow or the day after is the same. No lynching for fear of mime is scumsiding when the game can’t resolve itself via vig.

You should vote between me and fink, because in the situation that fink is town, or that you lynch me, we need both of our mislynches to win the game.

Jingle · Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:13 am

In post 1010, Eragon wrote:
In post 1005, Jingle wrote:
In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!
Rank the four possible lynches in order of most likely to least likely to be mime.
Thor > Thor > No lynch > Eragon

/s

Legit anyone could be mime rn

So every player is identically likely to be mime? There’s no spectrum at all?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:14 am

I need to think about Ari's motivation for insisting on calling me a mime from his POV... best I can come up with is to discourage the idea of his own slot being mime in GL/Fink/Ari 1v1v1?

Ari do you have time to actually lay out your case on me being mime

Aristophanes · Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:17 am

The problem I'm having is why I would lynch my townier reads

Ninja'd
I'm actually at work doing this illegally so not really

Thor665 · Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:18 am

In post 1009, Eragon wrote:Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game

Not sure I'm seeing the game quite like you are.
I stand by my previous statement - not gonna shoot you if I'm alive tonight.

Kmd4390 · Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:20 am

Vote Count

Fink - 2 - Jingle, Guiltylion
Jingle - 2 - Eragon, Fink

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Aristophanes

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday, September 28, at 8:30PM EST

GuiltyLion · Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:32 am

it's also worth explicitly pointing out that for Mime, the absolute worst case here is to lynch the Thor partner

so not wanting to lynch anyone but Thor today feels like the angle that Mime is most likely to take

fits into what Jingle was saying about Fink push on Jingle likely confirming that Fink is not Mime

Jingle · Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:09 am

Thank you, I was trying to bury that lead, GL, to convince mime to townside here.

GL still probs town, ftr.

I'm frankly torn between self hammering or not should I hit L-1 for deadline. Like, I shouldn't ever be considered an option for a lynch at this point. I'm so town it hurts. I've done the most gamesolving of any slot, have the most protown content, and have been consistently trying to screw over both antitown factions using theory. On the other hand, if I have the option, it means there is credible suspicion on me and I'm at best a distraction to the town, plus a green flip from me means that EVERYTHING I'VE SAID IS TRUSTWORTHY.

Jingle · Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:30 am

Ari here are the numbers.

In the event of no lynch, scum is going to shoot for mime. There is no use in trying to target their shot, because it is the best use of their night action for their wincon, and Thor doesn't play antiwincon. Tomorrow we lynch Thor, regardless of outcome. Thor's partner will then need to shoot for the mime again assuming they didn't kill the mime the previous night, so Eragon will stay alive, because 2v1v1 is a situation that cannot end in a town win via lynch. This means Eragon will stay alive. So our odds at winning in a No Lynch are the same as a 3v1 MYLO if mime is shot tonight (25% chance of hitting mime tonight), a 50/50 if mime is shot tomorrow (75%*1/3 or % chance of hitting mime tomorrow(But actually less because of the RB, which isn't getting considered atm to simplify math)), or 0% if mime is never shot (the remainder). Weights there mean collective town EV from a no lynch is 20.8% assuming that you don't discount the possibility of me-mime in the shots.

If we lynch, we have a 20% chance of hitting thor's partner. Which is an autowin. It also makes the scum shooting the mime more likely, pumping up our odds of lynching right down the road, if we lynch one of the townies, 60%. I think the vastly increased odds of town win here speak for themselves. Even just confirming someone as not mime and then not lynching them helps if they're town, because then mafia won't want to shoot them. Because they're not mime, and shooting for mime is the only correct play if Thor is still alive.

Jingle · Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:33 am

In post 1015, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1009, Eragon wrote:Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game
Not sure I'm seeing the game quite like you are.
I stand by my previous statement - not gonna shoot you if I'm alive tonight.

Hey thor. Shoot whoever you think is mime because that's how you win this game.

Alternatively, shoot your mafia partner, claim vig and hope that town is super incompetent. Who knows, it might just work.

Eragon · Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:50 am

In post 1020, Jingle wrote:
In post 1015, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1009, Eragon wrote:Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game
Not sure I'm seeing the game quite like you are.
I stand by my previous statement - not gonna shoot you if I'm alive tonight.
Hey thor. Shoot whoever you think is mime because that's how you win this game.

Alternatively, shoot your mafia partner, claim vig and hope that town is super incompetent. Who knows, it might just work.

perfection

fine thor, shoot anyone you want

Thor665 · Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:19 am

Oh goody, I have permission to do what I was going to do regardless

Eragon · Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:21 am

In post 1022, Thor665 wrote:Oh goody, I have permission to do what I was going to do regardless

*visible anger noises*

Eragon · Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:23 am

we take this chance we are given, to do something great.
This lynch decides the fate of the game.
if this flips as mafia, we win, if it flips as mime, then well... good game, if it flips town, we decide the best plan.

what better life is there than one filled with risk?