Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Jingle]

Pretty damn sure that fink is not mime though, so that’s nice.

[Eragon]

I hope your right jingle,

I sure as hell hope your right.

[Aristophanes]

Sorry again guys

[Kmd4390]

A Lynch wasn't reached before deadline which results in a no Lynch!

Vote Count

Fink - 3 - Jingle, Guiltylion, Fink
Jingle - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Aristophanes

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline for night actions is Monday October 1 at 1:30pm EST

[Kmd4390]

Aristophanes was killed Night 4. He was a

Vanilla Townie

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Jingle, Guiltylion, Fink, Eragon

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST

Day 5 starts now. Sorry for the delay. Busy day yesterday.

[Fink]

So shooting for the townreads apparently.

Feel like the extended night again is going to just hurt morale even more, but if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.

[Fink]

VOTE: Thor

This is the only play

[Jingle]

So...

We lynch Thor.

Mafia has to shoot for mime or the game becomes unwinnable.
Mime has to try to stop mafia or the game becomes unwinnable.

Tomorrow we've got 3v1v1 (Successful Mime Block), 2v1v1 (Town Kill), or 3v1 (Mime Kill).

If a townsperson dies the game goes to Kingmaker/Draw scenario, which everyone wants to avoid, which means Eragon is off limits for shooting tonight.

Does anyone need the reasoning for why any of that is objectively true?

[Jingle]

Feel like the extended night again is going to just hurt morale even more, but if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.

KMD will let us shorten night phase by unanimous agreement. I have already sent my approval to shorten the next night phase. I would like to ask that all of you do the same. Neither scum will have a partner to discuss things with. Today affords no additional information. There is literally no point in extending the night phase. We know the lynch, so anyone with a night target can just pick now. And that way KMD just has to resolve actions and we don't have to wait for another 2 RL days before doing something.

[Thor665]

If I'm lynched I promise the Mafia shot is on the Watcher.
Mostly because Mafia isn't dumb.

[GuiltyLion]

Does anyone need the reasoning for why any of that is objectively true?

yes? 2v1v1 (or 1v1v1 for that matter) isn't "objectively" a kingmaker/draw scenario... if town lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch mafia or mime. If mafia lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch town or mime. It's a kingmaker if everybody openly claims but I highly doubt that's how either mime or mafia would play that out.

I agree on lynching Thor today but mafia would be dumb to shoot anywhere outside of Eragon as that leads to insta-loss if they're caught. What Thor said ^

I kinda think this might be a townslip on Jingle's end

[GuiltyLion]

if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.

I almost feel insulted by this but hard to see it as anything but AtE

[GuiltyLion]

IV - Mime
Fink - Mafia
Jingle - VT
GL - VT
Eragon - Watcher

[Jingle]

yes? 2v1v1 (or 1v1v1 for that matter) isn't "objectively" a kingmaker/draw scenario... if town lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch mafia or mime. If mafia lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch town or mime. It's a kingmaker if everybody openly claims but I highly doubt that's how either mime or mafia would play that out.

Except... 2v1v1 is a scenario in which only the mime can be lynched.

[GuiltyLion]

Except... 2v1v1 is a scenario in which only the mime can be lynched.

this isn't really true

it's true only if mafia refuses to lynch and mime successfully roleblocks mafia at night, otherwise it turns to 1v1v1 (or 2v1 if mime NK'd)

so therefore mafia cannot play as if they are openly mafia with 4 alive, otherwise they are opting into the draw and guaranteeing that they can't win

which means mafia has to act like town which means mafia has an incentive to entertain the idea of a vote/lynch which means a mislynch is in play

it's only a draw if mafia decides to settle for a draw

and I guess additionally town can either no lynch or lynch and hope to hit anyone but mime (if you hit town, hope for successful mime-block). both factions have hope with a no-lynch, once mime knows who mafia is then the jig is up and mafia has to try to lynch two successive townies. but in any case they are going to want to disguise their alignment and play as town, which means it's definitely not a simple kingmaker.

[GuiltyLion]

actually wait, I keep getting the 1v1v1 lylo wrong, mime never votes elsewhere in 1v1v1 LYLO so at that point it's a draw

[GuiltyLion]

oh and I guess the argument is town or mafia will never vote themselves in 2v1v1 LYLO and so it requires the Mime vote if it's not the Mime, which you're arguing Mime won't do it

ehhhh let me think about how a Mime would want to play that

[Jingle]

Okay, I'll break it down.

2v1v1:

Mafia will not vote mafia, because it is an instant loss.
Town will not selfvote, because it becomes 1v1v1 and town can't win from there.
Mime will only lynch self, because if they lynch mafia they lose the game and if they lynch town they can't win the game (See: Kingmaker/HEA).

Therefore, we go to night. Scum will shoot for mime, because 1v1v1 is Kingmaker/HEA. The only problem is, Mime knows who scum is.

Because today, we lynch Thor. 3v1v1 Mime picks someone to roleblock that isn't Eragon. Eragon dies. Mime has a conftown result. Mime can now narrow down the scum through PoE and prevent the next night's kill. Dawn breaks. We have a 2v1v1. We can't lynch, so we go to night.... And the game ends in a draw. Or one faction picks a different faction to win.

But wait! Why won't mafia just no kill tonight to avoid the watcher guilty? Because, friends, that puts us into the 3v1v1, meaning they have to dodge two lynches while ensuring the mime isn't lynched the first day and gets shot the first night, giving Eragon an even better chance at catching them. Mafia can choose to no kill here, but it actually helps town and harms mafia.

But wait! Why wouldn't mime just let the mafia kill go through tonight? Because friends, not being able to narrow down the scum makes it less likely they'll be lynched, because they want as many no kills as possible.

[Jingle]

ehhhh let me think about how a Mime would want to play that

Protown behavior is to no lynch. Promafia behavior is to no lynch. Promime behavior is to lynch self. Lynch self is impossible, therefore, the game will no lynch.

[Jingle]

I kinda think this might be a townslip on Jingle's end

BTW, the townslip on Jingle's end is that if I were mafia, Thor would have 100% shot Eragon last night. Whoopsie.

[Jingle]

I realized there's literally no point in keeping this to myself.

Fink isn't mafia. He might be mime, but he isn't mafia.

[Jingle]

Like, 90% confidence there.

[Jingle]

VOTE: Thor

[Eragon]

I kinda think this might be a townslip on Jingle's end

BTW, the townslip on Jingle's end is that if I were mafia, Thor would have 100% shot Eragon last night. Whoopsie.

What?