Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

BuJaber · Post Post #2350 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:26 pm

There weren't any sando moments in this game for me to react to.

Reality is I'm not good at repping in yet. It's a new experience. The foundation of my reads usually lies within the early pages. But I wasn't here for them. Like because of my timezone I generally start actually posting around 6+ pages in. But then I immediately start pointing stuff out that happened in RVS and subsequent pages and I get real time reactions to my early reads and that helps me sort the whole playerbase eventually, in a way that is rooted in much more information so I'm more confident.

The only thing I'm sure of here is that skitter and Vex are town. But korina has since really dropped his posting and enthusiasm which is meh but like I really don't think he can pull of the townspamming as scum. Particularly the parts where he's so sure he's on par with creature on the NK-attractiveness scale.

Skitter's posts seem townie enough and like she's not trying to subtly move the game in any particular selfish direction. But really my confidence in that read is based purely on the out of game stuff so I have nothing to talk about there.

I really haven't played enough with ruru to know how well she plays as scum and our playstyles sort of clash naturally from what I saw in X/Y. Like I still don't understand what the fake claim was hoping to achieve.

Enigma is an early game read which I kinda trust.

I don't like tw's posting at all recently because he feels like he's just sort of going with the flow. Only thing he got passionate and motovated about was defending himself. No obvious effort in sorting people. But he's my hypo inno.

Don't know how to read Alonzo which is why he was my first hypo inno.

I mean there's like only 3 choices for me: enigma, phantismo and ruru. Ruru my gut says town and nobody apart from elephant exoressed a scumread on her... If she's scum here she probably just wins

ruru · Post Post #2351 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:10 pm

zzz

I kind of just want to lynch the worst even if he's probably not groupscum

I feel like his "I'd rather be lynched before lylo even if you think a traitor flip could clear me" reaction is really traitor-indicative too

ruru · Post Post #2352 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:20 pm

nsg would say something like "I've found my scumreads on players who

lack town

to be me more accurate than my actual scumreads" and then she would lynch bujaber and he would flip red.

ISO · Post Post #2353 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:43 pm

hey ruru wanna know a secret

Spoiler:

ISO · Post Post #2354 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:44 pm

why would a traitor flip clear me??

ISO · Post Post #2355 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:44 pm

this is way outside the realms of being like a good read anymore I don't even think you think I'm scum??

BuJaber · Post Post #2356 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:30 pm

Why are you so sure ruru's town?

ISO · Post Post #2357 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:17 pm

In post 2356, BuJaber wrote:Why are you so sure ruru's town?

believe me I haven't given the read out easily

BuJaber · Post Post #2358 (ISO) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:48 pm

I'm not arguing against the read I want to know your reasons if you please.

Because from my pov he's been given a case for you being scum but not really pushing it and like I expect you to be suspicious of him for that.

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2359 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:50 am

In post 2319, Alonzo wrote:
In post 2314, Alonzo wrote:
In post 2312, Irrelephant11 wrote:VOTE: Alonzo
Dogshit
my reads are also dogshit. Lets talk.

Oaky, talk to me about ruru, enigma and BuJaber

In post 2321, Alonzo wrote:skitter yours is the only iso I 'v not read, will i find you swimming upstream or going with the flow?

curious to hear what you find, marking for myself

In post 2333, skitter30 wrote:does anyone have a strong read on irrel's slot either way?

me
am town

In post 2334, skitter30 wrote:ok this'll be a ramble-y type thing

-> still kinda feel like the pagetops thing in rvs exhibited a townie type tone

-> also 77 i feel is a kinda unstilted response to someone (presumably fake-claiming) traitor

-> just feels kinda townie and non-agenda-y tonally and just very guileless

-> noting that he's kinda defensive of sky

->
In post 1553, Enigma wrote:VOTE: NM
Trollylololol

HURT: duck
still don't think this is a bussing vote tbh

-> still think 2062 feels townie

idk and nothing realy feels scummy from him imo

Did you read the things I called out from enigma when he talked multiple people out of lynching the red-flipped slot the first time, instead suggesting the slot should be vigged? If he knows there's not likely a vig it was a pretty good defense. Even later he kept saying "I'd rather lynch Frank" as the NM wagon built up and he definitely only voted NM after it was inevitable and there was no more time left to get momentum elsewhere

In post 2337, ruru wrote:Ugh

so, gamma being mislynched is probably a loose indicator of his reads being accurate (not necessarily enigma though, maybe just the worst) and me not being shot is probably a loose indicator that I'm wrong about at least one of {tw, bujaber} or that I have an inno on scum because creature was being useless and his reads on both lynches were wrong.

I think out of all the players gamma was sheeping my case on tw most and I'm hesitant to drop enigma down to lynchable just based on gamma's reads when it's quite possible he was lynched for that reason too.

it's definitely possible that skitter and I have a positive feedback confbias loop on enigma; we've done this before, but I still think it's more likely he's just town. nothing about his posting seems scum-indicative (compared to his town meta) to me and I would expect someone who hasn't played scum in a long time to be more nervous and exhibit more scumtells in a game with people he just played with.

I kind of wanted to roleplay nsg and just lurk and see what happens rather than pushing stuff today to try to figure out if I'm just wrong about everything but I'm not nsg and I feel like I need to interact with the game and I'll feel like a gamethrower if I do that and it doesn't lead to a win so whatever I will be actually playing the game now

I feel like there's multiple times in this post where you say "huh this points to scum!enigma but I'd like to just ignore that", correct me if I'm wrong
I think you and skitter are both hanging on to town ~feels~ about enigma even as I scumcase him
Like you're both just ignoring the substance of my and others' scumreads of enigma and then being like "wEiRD hoW EniGmA geTS VOteS bUt noT IrrELEpHaNt riGHt? makes enigma town"
Also wasn't it you who said either Alonzo or Gamma was likely scum? Why are you ignoring Alonzo now? (maybe it wasn't, but if not, please direct this question in the right direction for me, thanks)

In post 2348, skitter30 wrote:i guess one of the things i'm worried about is that there's a bunch of people in my 'i can't read super well rn' zone and gamma/enigma keep on drawing votes, and alonzo a little bit too, but irrel and bujaber haven't really much at all

also i'm a little bit worried about irrel because both of his preds are bad and he's supposed to have a good scumgame so like idk if i'll ever really catch him doing anything scummy

bujaber is kinda like lacking the passion/stubbornness from pypx/y. like he's just kinda around but not really *pushing* anything; in pypx/y he got into a massive fight with sando and kept trying to draw people's attention back there; he doesn't really have any strong scumreads here

at the same time i don't know if i can blame him because i don't have super strong scumreads here either

skitter please see above
also BuJ is definitely getting votes and in previous phases I was nearly the lynch it just so happens to be the pushes on those slots are coming from you and ruru so like fypov it seems like "oh no one is voting them" but fmpov it's like "why is enigma so hard to lynch, the only towny thing about him is his tone"
Which isn't to say I have to be right here and you have to be wrong I'm not 100% confident on enigma and I do scumread BuJ to some extent I just think you and ruru are using fairly weak reasoning to arrive at the townread on enigma

In post 2351, ruru wrote:zzz

I kind of just want to lynch the worst even if he's probably not groupscum

I feel like his "I'd rather be lynched before lylo even if you think a traitor flip could clear me" reaction is really traitor-indicative too

Please explain why it's traitor indicative

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2360 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:54 am

ruru isn't expecially towny to me at this point, I think her consistent "I don't feel like playing this game/we're gonna lose" attitude (check her ISO, it shows up every game day) is anti-town
At the same time her vote on NM is less buss-y than most, and she has done a fair amount of real work this game to get things sorted

@ruru if you want the worst lynched please give me a bulleted list of reasons why because I'm not seeing it, and though my inno isn't like a 100% clear (I don't think those exist in this setup anyway) I really don't get your case on him from an objective pov so I'm not super interested in voting my inno

ofrhz · Post Post #2361 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:27 am

VOTE COUNT 3.3

Alonzo (1):

Irrelephant11

the worst (0):

ruru (0):

BuJaber (2):

the worst, ruru

Enigma (1):

BuJaber

Irrelephant11 (0):

skitter30 (0):

Korina (0):

Not Voting (4):

Alonzo, Enigma, skitter30, Korina

With

8

alive, it takes

5

to kill.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-10-16 07:30:00)

Other:

- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2362 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:39 am

VOTE: enigma

skitter30 · Post Post #2363 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:44 am

In post 2350, BuJaber wrote:There weren't any sando moments in this game for me to react to.

i can understand that

you just feel a little bit lacklustre in comparison to what i'm used to if that makes sense. like you're just kinda lacking that *opinionated* feel. and kinda less nuanced too now that i think about it

In post 2350, BuJaber wrote:but like I really don't think he can pull of the townspamming as scum.
Particularly the parts where he's so sure he's on par with creature on the NK-attractiveness scale.

this is kinda pinging me and tbh kinda feels like it comes from scum who thinks they aren't nk'ing korina any time soon. like you're calling him town for believing something so different from reality

In post 2350, BuJaber wrote:I mean there's like only 3 choices for me: enigma, phantismo and ruru. Ruru my gut says town and nobody apart from elephant exoressed a scumread on her...
If she's scum here she probably just wins

i mean yes i kinda agree but you're kinda like just resigning yourself to this and seem to be writing her off as hard to read:

In post 2350, BuJaber wrote:I really haven't played enough with ruru to know how well she plays as scum and our playstyles sort of clash naturally from what I saw in X/Y. Like I still don't understand what the fake claim was hoping to achieve.

==

In post 2359, Irrelephant11 wrote:Did you read the things I called out from enigma when he talked multiple people out of lynching the red-flipped slot the first time, instead suggesting the slot should be vigged? If he knows there's not likely a vig it was a pretty good defense. Even later he kept saying "I'd rather lynch Frank" as the NM wagon built up and he definitely only voted NM after it was inevitable and there was no more time left to get momentum elsewhere

like i read it but i just don't see your point to be that convincing really?

i don't really think he talked people out of lynching cj; more giving his opinion that he found the slot hard to read (ie i odn't remember him actually convincing anyone not to lynch cj because of that). suggesting the slot should be vigged is still +town to me; he doens't know if there is or is not a vig unless he's like actually the vig; i'd only really be suspicous of people pushing for someone to be vigged instead of lynched if the red flip was bp in someway but cj didn't flip that so i still think that asking for him to be vigged on day1 when we odn't know if there is a vig is kinda townie

like idk townies can also be wrong initially about a read/flip and like the things you're pulling out don't feel siginficaly more likely to come from scum to me

like i wasn't really ignoring you, more noting it and just kinda thinking that it wasn't super convincing really

In post 2359, Irrelephant11 wrote:Which isn't to say I have to be right here and you have to be wrong I'm not 100% confident on enigma and I do scumread BuJ to some extent I just think you and ruru are using fairly weak reasoning to arrive at the townread on enigma

like i basically feel like this except i think you're using fairly weak reasoning to arrive at the scumread on enigma

ruru · Post Post #2364 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:16 am

In post 2359, Irrelephant11 wrote:Did you read the things I called out from enigma when he talked multiple people out of lynching the red-flipped slot the first time, instead suggesting the slot should be vigged? If he knows there's not likely a vig it was a pretty good defense. Even later he kept saying "I'd rather lynch Frank" as the NM wagon built up and he definitely only voted NM after it was inevitable and there was no more time left to get momentum elsewhere

do you think enigma should have known ceejay was scum?

do his posts read like svs?

otherwise, why is this scummy?

I feel like there's multiple times in this post where you say "huh this points to scum!enigma but I'd like to just ignore that", correct me if I'm wrong

I feel that there are still more things pointing pointing to scum.bujaber / scum.tw than there are to scum.enigma.

Also wasn't it you who said either Alonzo or Gamma was likely scum? Why are you ignoring Alonzo now? (maybe it wasn't, but if not, please direct this question in the right direction for me, thanks)

Reads change

He's nulltown to me by posting and I have an inno

also BuJ is definitely getting votes

he was my first choice for yesterday's lynch and it was a vanity wagon.

In post 2351, ruru wrote:I feel like his "I'd rather be lynched before lylo even if you think a traitor flip could clear me" reaction is really traitor-indicative too
Please explain why it's traitor indicative

because only the traitor would know they can't get cleared by a flip; town would be actively looking to flip the traitor

I've seen scum make the same type of mistake after fakeclaiming in 2d3 and I think it's super scummy

ruru · Post Post #2365 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:35 am

In post 2360, Irrelephant11 wrote:ruru isn't expecially towny to me at this point, I think her consistent "I don't feel like playing this game/we're gonna lose" attitude (check her ISO, it shows up every game day) is anti-town
At the same time her vote on NM is less buss-y than most, and she has done a fair amount of real work this game to get things sorted

so, essentially, you're scumreading me over a personality clash. I suggest you stop doing that.

@ruru if you want the worst lynched please give me a bulleted list of reasons why because I'm not seeing it, and though my inno isn't like a 100% clear (I don't think those exist in this setup anyway) I really don't get your case on him from an objective pov so I'm not super interested in voting my inno

emotionally, I want to lynch the worst because I have a strong scumread on him and I don't trust this town to lynch him later

intellectually I'm not convinced it's correct because a traitor flip makes him unlikely to be scum and so I'm not going to hard push it because it would be gamethrowing if it turns out somebody else was going to flip traitor first

fwiw, I don't feel like gc/rb/tracker innos don't really change his chances of being scum because I think he's just traitor

my iso has bulleted lists that you can read when I'm dead if you don't want to read them now; in addition to those there are a couple of meta based reasons I can't talk about but I think at least one of them is a fairly strong tell

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2366 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:37 am

In post 2364, ruru wrote:do you think enigma should have known ceejay was scum?
do his posts read like svs?

-what? I think he

did

know ceej was scum because they were buddies..?? at least that's what it implied when I say I scumread him
-yeah that's what I'm saying, he was subtly defending the slot in a way I think is scummy

In post 2363, skitter30 wrote:i don't really think he talked people out of lynching cj; more giving his opinion that he found the slot hard to read (ie i odn't remember him actually convincing anyone not to lynch cj because of that). suggesting the slot should be vigged is still +town to me; he doens't know if there is or is not a vig unless he's like actually the vig;

If scum took no mods then there's only a 1/5 chance of a vig existing, scum!enigma would probably rather take those odds than a lynch
If you go back and re-read enigma around the first time CJ was wagoned and you still feel that part of his play is towny I will re-evaluate

ruru · Post Post #2367 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:46 am

In post 2364, ruru wrote:because only the traitor would know they can't get cleared by a flip

actually I guess technically groupscum might know this too if they recruited traitor

in any case it's scummy

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2368 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:05 am

wow okay idk why but I had to re-read what you were saying about tw and "traitor flip" a LOt of times before I understood
So the worst would be "cleared" if someone else flipped traitor
But the worst, rather than aiming to find and lynch the traitor, is being WIFOM-y and saying he should just be lynched before lylo
So therefore, he's likely the traitor, because a townie would go about being in that situation differently

This is what you're saying y/n? I can sorta see it I guess

also "personality clash" is a little misreppy, though just a little I guess based on how I said what I said. I'm saying there's scum motivation to fake a lack of enthusiasm for this game to encourage others to feel the same. I do suspect I'm partially scumreading you (not that I have much of a read on you either way actually rn) for being at odds with my thought processes in general and I'm interpreting that as having an agenda, which on the whole means I should probably just townread you and see where we go from there

If tw is traitor I think BuJ is the other scum btw

In post 845, the worst wrote:VOTE: ceejayvinoya
if I'm wrong on this blow my mind, friend

In post 848, the worst wrote:FOS Buj as well but despite being a friend I don't have as strong a feel for his scumgame

skitter is pinging town on second impressions but I will only have a good read on her when I read the game chronologically T_T

ruru · Post Post #2369 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:23 am

yes, that's what I'm saying

I saw an experienced player fakeclaiming doctor in 2d3 do exactly the same thing and ask to be lynched before lylo or not at all (when a roleblocker flip would have cleared him)

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2370 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:32 am

Spoiler: Idk why I was keeping this to myself? Colored vcs for d1

Irrelephant11 · Post Post #2371 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:35 am

okay I have wrapped my head around it and I think that makes some sense
Waiting to hear from skitter re:enigma d1 but for now I'll UNVOTE:

ruru · Post Post #2372 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:40 am

oh, so in other news, we have different options today and I'm not sure which is best:
1. massclaim
2. no lynch, massclaim tomorrow
3. lynch, massclaim tomorrow (if green)

I'm not sure if #3 is that good actually

I tentatively like #1 I think?

ruru · Post Post #2373 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:42 am

like it's possible there are too many innos on lynchable players for us to effectively play the game today and that plus a few other things are making me interested in just massclaiming today

skitter30 · Post Post #2374 (ISO) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:46 am

In post 2371, Irrelephant11 wrote:okay I have wrapped my head around it and I think that makes some sense
Waiting to hear from skitter re:enigma d1 but for now I'll UNVOTE:

i reread those posts but idk i don't really see them as scummy? or townie really? like they don't feel much ai to me either way