Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!


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Post Post #2225 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:54 am

Post by Eragon »

Honestly, let’s just end this

Reundo has 1:41 left on his prod, its unlikely he’ll pick up
And i would rather not bother some poor soul to eonpletely replace into a scummy slot at this point in he game and have to catch up with the people we have left.
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Post Post #2226 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:55 am

Post by Eragon »

If you want to wait for a replacement, I’m chill with it I guess, it just doesn’t feel like it’ll help much or at all
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Post Post #2227 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:27 am

Post by Reundo »

Going through Toranaga's ISO, I realized he had a lot less scum equity than I originally suspected, especially in comparison to Keyser. His D1 is honestly pretty underwhelming -- I didn't like how long he held onto his vote, and he didn't really do much other than throw out a couple of weak reads -- but his volxen vote was surprising, especially with regards to the timing. He could've easily lynched Sesq there, but instead he decided to rebuild momentum on the volxen wagon. While I could see him doing it as a grab for town-cred, I still feel the optimal play would've been to vote Sesq if he were scum. His reasoning for voting him and not voting Sesq also seemed sound, so it didn't feel like a fake or forced read/vote.

Torananga's D2 is considerably stronger than his D1. Compared to D1, he seemed a lot more passionate about game-solving, through his VCA analysis and in-depth casing. I especially liked his case on northsidegal -- I didn't think her play was scum-indicative as a whole, but I could follow along with his thought-process and how he'd personally come to the conclusion that she's scum. His flip-flopping on Dunnstral is of course something to take into consideration considering he flipped scum, and while there are a few iffy spots I think as a whole it's not that suspicious. He starts out D2 scum-reading Dunnstral, but he soon switches to town-reading him instead. The reason why this isn't scummy to me is that it doesn't feel influenced by anyone else's reads or thought process -- he seemed to arrive to the conclusion of town!Dunnstral through his own means, and I really don't see why as scum he'd suddenly switch from bussing his partner to hard town-reading him when no one even hinted at a town read of Dunn. A lot of his reasons for town-reading Dunnstral aligned with mine, and I even unintentionally pocketed him with my semi-readslist halfway through D2. There are a few moments when he admits some of the things Dunn has done was scummy, but I think that's pretty towny of him since it shows he's willing to rethink his biases. He was on the Dunnstral wagon at the end of the day, but like with volxen he easily could've jumped on the Eragon wagon, and it seems like he thought more of Dunnstral as a null read ("I'll be unsurprised whatever dunn flips tbh") than a scum read, which shows he didn't do a complete 180 read on his Dunnstral town-read.

There certainly are a lot of things bothering me about Toranaga's play, mostly his lackluster D1 and his hesitance to vote volxen, but it looks a lot better when compared with Keyser. With the volxen wagon, I could see why town!Tora would want to hold onto his vote until he ISO'd sesq and volxen -- I don't think it's a great reason, but it's at least plausible. Meanwhile, I don't see why Keyser would respond immediately to pretty much everyone's D1 entrance yet ignore volxen's entrance until much later, especially when it should've pinged him through his own scum criteria, especially with regards to bringing up irrelevant points (admittedly, it would be a bit weird how scum!Keyser would respond to Dunn's entrance yet ignore volxen's, but thinking over it it'd be equally weird if he straight up ignored both of his partners). Both Tora and Keyser flip-flop on their reads of Dunn throughout D2, but Tora seems to have a lot more forward momentum compared to Keyser. Toranaga was one of the first to populate the idea of town!Dunn, and as scum he would've known he would be suspect as soon as he flips red, which makes it less likely he'd actually do it. Contrast that with Keyser, who pretty much just pocketed Toranaga on his Dunnstral read, which also makes a lot of sense as scum -- someone was bound to town-read Dunnstral immediately, so by waiting until someone did just that, Keyser holds a lot less responsibility when Dunn does flip red, and if no one comes to his defense then he could just be free to hard-bus Dunn, which would give scum!Keyser a lot of options. As a whole, I find it much more believable that Keyser would bus his partners than Toranaga, and Toranaga's play as a whole feels more like genuine game-solving whereas Keyser just feels like he's going with the flow most of the time and changing his reads to fit the status quo, even if it goes against what he originally considers towny/scummy behavior.

I'm not sure if I'll be able to get to other ISOs, but imo it's not really necessary. Nauci for one is always town, firstly because I don't see both scum-partners deciding to bus Sesq D1, and partly because her game-solving feels genuine and I find myself agreeing with her points more often than not. Irrelephant has sort of a "post whatever comes to mind" playstyle, and there's certain moments would it'd actually hurt him as scum. Like, at the end of D1 for instance, he was reluctant on volxen and ended up unvoting and calling him "lynchbait", and as scum it would be a needless way to burn town-cred, whereas as town I could see how he could've fallen for volxen's defense. There are a few weird Dunn interactions, but they're definitely not as weird as Keyser or Tora. He also did a townslip D1 when he thought that scum had day-chat -- but he also did point that slip out himself so ehhhh -- but really as a whole I'm just getting a strong town vibe from him. Eragon's been playing very similar to the last game I played with him, and in that game a lot of people were calling him out for being "surface level towny" too (it was actually more LAMIST, but it's basically the same concept), so I don't feel the accusations made against him this game were just. I don't really see how Eragon was flip-flopping on Dunnstral tbh -- it just felt like he was strong scum-reading him the whole time with only a few blips of "well, maybe he could be town", but it's towny to doubt yourself once in a while and it definitely wasn't excessive in the vain of Keyser.

I know it's probably too late to stop myself from being lynched, and honestly with how inactive I've been I'd probably want myself lynched too, but if I do get lynched today I want Keyser to get lynched tomorrow 100%. I honestly feel he has more scum equity than everyone else in the game. Toranaga is a distant second, and while I'd want you guys to think over things in LyLo I strongly feel that Keyser is the most likely to be scum this game. There has been a few towny things Keyser's done this game, but literally everyone still alive has done ton of towny things, but I feel Keyser is just pretending to be town whereas everyone else has towny, natural reads and progressions, and while others do flip-flop on their reads there's almost always a clear progression from how they got from point A to point B whereas with Keyser he almost seems to just flip his reads at a snap of the finger. I'm confident saying that Keyser is scum this game, and there's nothing that would change my mind on that.
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Post Post #2228 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:33 am

Post by Eragon »

welp we are here again

chill
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Post Post #2229 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:39 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Well if you’re scum you’ve lost.

And if you’re town you’re gonna die too: while your read on Volxen was glorious on D1, since then your pro-active urgency to find scum and reads have been hideous.

I’m not scum.
I was hoping you could turn the game on it’s head. You have invested too much “equity” into one player and not enough looking at the whole playerlist - something that you should have done today as you have been such a distant figure.


FYI: Flip flopping isn’t scummy. And it’s especially not NAI if I keep flip flopping to lynch scum.
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Post Post #2230 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:40 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Especially NAI*
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Post Post #2231 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:42 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Are we ever going to lynch Nauci/ Tora/Eragon/Irrelephant?

If not, lynch me today, then force Reundo to look at everyone.
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Post Post #2232 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:06 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

..............................................
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Post Post #2233 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:07 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

on another note I laughed out loud at tor casing himself
I never thought tor was scum I just wanted to see if Reundo would take advantage of my "strongest scumread" and suddenly find tor to be scummier than keyser

@reundo can you explain why you've been so quiet overall?
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Post Post #2234 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:20 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Yeah Tor’s post was inspired.
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Post Post #2235 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:31 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

VOTE: Reundo :twisted:
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Post Post #2236 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:33 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

Reundo’s ‘Tora re-read’ became the ‘even more reasons why Keyser Söze is scum re-read’ :giggle:
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Post Post #2237 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:35 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

... I don’t know what that is, but it’s not someone I want alive with the town win con on the line.
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Post Post #2238 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:48 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

@Eragon is Keyser ever the lynch here?
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Post Post #2239 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:48 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I still believe Reundo is either scum or is right
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Post Post #2240 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:50 am

Post by Reundo »

In post 2229, Keyser Söze wrote: I’m not scum.
I was hoping you could turn the game on it’s head. You have invested too much “equity” into one player and not enough looking at the whole playerlist - something that you should have done today as you have been such a distant figure.
How much would be "enough" for you? I already cased my biggest scum-read and explained why I think my second biggest scum-read probably isn't scum, and I've been commenting on other people's play numerous times throughout the game. Really, I just think you're using this whole "not looking at the whole playerlist" excuse to try to get me off of you.
In post 2229, Keyser Söze wrote: FYI: Flip flopping isn’t scummy. And it’s especially not NAI if I keep flip flopping to lynch scum.
You can't just keeping saying that X isn't scummy like it's always just black and white, and the same goes for your "defensiveness isn't scummy" point too. It's less about what you do and more about the way you do it, and I've explained numerous times how I thought why these specific instances of defensiveness and flip-flopping are scum-indicative to me.
In post 2233, Irrelephant11 wrote:on another note I laughed out loud at tor casing himself
I never thought tor was scum I just wanted to see if Reundo would take advantage of my "strongest scumread" and suddenly find tor to be scummier than keyser
To be fair, this would still be pretty bad play if I were scum. If I were scum, I'd probably just leave Torananga at #2 and hope that a Keyser -> Toranaga lynch-chain goes through. Putting Toranaga first doesn't chance the ultimate lynch path and just makes me look needlessly scummier imo.
In post 2233, Irrelephant11 wrote: @reundo can you explain why you've been so quiet overall?
I'm not really sure. I guess on a subconscious level I care more about how I come off than I really should, and I think that plays into why I don't post that much. I also think my drive for playing mafia is kind of waning a bit. Like, if I get started on posting then I'd probably spend a good few hours straight analyzing the game, but finding the motivation to actually get started writing something is kind of hard for me. Whenever I try to post something it takes me way longer than it should, like I'd pop in hoping to whip up a quick post in 10 minutes and it ends up taking me an hour for some reason, and the sheer time sink required from me just steers me away from posting in general, and I've had a lot less time on my hands overall than I used to.
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Post Post #2241 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:03 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I think reundo is more likely to flip scum
I think leaving scum!Keyser for mylo is the scarier option
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Post Post #2242 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:29 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

@Reundo

Have you attempted to look at the game in the chance that you are wrong about me?
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Post Post #2243 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:56 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #2244 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:57 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

In post 2242, Keyser Söze wrote:@Reundo

Have you attempted to look at the game in the chance that you are wrong about me?
Please do this (for me), and let that be your lasting legacy for this game.
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Post Post #2245 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:22 am

Post by Toranaga »

reundo's post about me is so fucking good
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Post Post #2246 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:50 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

In post 2245, Toranaga wrote:reundo's post about me is so fucking good
Reundo's post about me you mean?
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Post Post #2247 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:55 am

Post by Toranaga »

no, his post about you isn't really good at all
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Post Post #2248 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:02 am

Post by Keyser Söze »

I knew what you meant ;) I was being sarcastic.

(His re-read on both you and Nauci ultimately ended up being about me)
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Post Post #2249 (ISO) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:34 am

Post by Nauci »

In post 2231, Keyser Söze wrote:Are we ever going to lynch Nauci/ Tora/Eragon/Irrelephant?

If not, lynch me today, then force Reundo to look at everyone.
OK

VOTE: Keyser Söze
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