Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[davesaz]

VOTE: wilky

[davesaz]

Are you talking about the one where you say there is a scumtell but don't act on it yourself?

[davesaz]

@FAQ, I am creating content, look at all the content I am creating! I want people to use their brains, and how they do so will tell me things!

Seems like an oversell to me.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Carcalilly

OwO do I know u

OH MY GOD ITS TCHILLY

WHAT UP MAN ITS BEEN FOREV

Yup, I caught you and Tchill as the scum team once, and then got swooped by Fykus.

I think I was probably on Boonskiies there, though.

This was the post that made me rep in btw

I was going to ask what you did with the time between replacing in and posting, but then realized it was actually only 6 hours.
Though it's only 3 pages so what did you do with the time?

[davesaz]

@Gamma fair enough, the lolsmiley was there for a reason.

Before someone pops off with the pot/kettle thing, I've had a couple medium-hard work days and I'm better at responding than initiating.

[davesaz]

Probably...

Nonny wagon at 4 wasn't bad at this point in the game, we kinda need some vote movement for analysis later.
From just quick glances, I think they were mostly independent reasons, though that's not saying much with so few posts in the game.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Profii
Coasting in the form of bleating about activity while adding basically nothing to the discussion.

Pedit: Eh, if you're suggesting a NL it doesn't sound right to me.

[davesaz]

This is killing me, I want to ask people questions on why they do things and there isn't enough stuff to ask about.

[davesaz]

Reundo seems like town
Carcalilly also seems Town
We should look elsewhere

Couple town reads but the reason for posting them seems random to me. Granted I'm doing ISO focus right now and not so much context.

Nonny is too quiet
He should come to the party
We should hear his side

Too quiet is accurate but doesn't that go for almost everyone?

Still many lurkers
They should all speak up right now
Revealing nonnys side?

Translation: the lurkers are lurking because they're aligned with Nonny? How does this make sense. They're not aligned with Nonny? I'm having trouble getting what the actual point is.

Does anyone else think people jumped on that nonny wagon way too opportunistically

I do not think so
It was the first wagon today
Next up, the counter!

Straightforward point, yes -- but avoiding saying anything specific to move the game forward beyond that point other than moaning about it.

Maybe I'm being influenced by the gimmick, but to me it's missing the motivation to get answers from all these observations.

[davesaz]

@CT do you think 125 is continuing the same angle as 117?

[davesaz]

Correction, 104

[davesaz]

Profii's posting just feels wierd and off to me, and it's not the haiku's. I'll see if I can explain this more later. I also don't like the sequence of reads and votes and when they happened.

This has way less foundation than mine. If profii is town this is a good candidate for scum sheeping me.

[davesaz]

@tchill, gonna want to know later what your motivation is for voting profii. I think my guess is probably right and it isn't urgent just yet. Won't bother me if you do answer now but it might defeat the purpose.

[davesaz]

@tchill, gonna want to know later what your motivation is for voting profii. I think my guess is probably right and it isn't urgent just yet. Won't bother me if you do answer now but it might defeat the purpose.

This approach is why I think I’m town reading carcalilly overall

I think you're scum (for a lot more reason than you acknowledged) but there is a chance I'm wrong, in which case it would really help to understand your reads.
I'm not following you on this. I made a comment to tchill about a vote on you, and you quoted it but commented on Carcalilly.
The disconnect in this read isn't helpful at all. Does it mean you think tchill is scum?

[davesaz]

Am I reading this right?
Someone joins the wagon you're voting. You ask them why.
If they said sheeping you would have asked why not one of the other wagons.
This makes me wonder if you believe the wagon you're voting.
Please explain.

[davesaz]

I'll be V/LA until Sunday afternoon, camping and don't know if there will be cell service

[davesaz]

Haven't left yet, loading car next.
Gotta say, that's what I'd do in that situation. I'm willing to save profii later.
VOTE: TiphaneDeath

[davesaz]

Ok I’ll wait.

[davesaz]

No action.

[davesaz]

Had some family things yesterday and heavy work day today, more family tonight. I've noticed what has happened but have not had time to put serious thought into it.

[davesaz]

I've had my butt kicked this week by work and family obligations. It's lurking by the "not posting much" standard, but not by the "choosing to let the thread slip by as long as you can" standard. Don't make me break out the huge text that says I don't lie about RL stuff.

FL points out that I switched off Profii -- hardly surprising for someone who loathes lynching claimed PRs when there isn't anything suggesting it's fake.
Even night doc in a game with a novice vig? I'd call that one about 2/3 likely to be town but yeah scum is a possibility.
If there is a(nother) doc, especially modified like n-shot or odd night,

don't counter

. I was just in a game with an even/odd pair of the same role.
I think this is trying to solve the game Flavor Leaf. I believe I've seen scum FL fake that but I'm inclined to TR it with so many in the game who know him.
Kinda happy we don't have the gambit multiple times in one game FL. Or at least I hope we don't.
Gonna need to re-read stuff, I caught up quickly given the short deadline, now need to do it slowly.

[davesaz]

The yard sale yesterday earned us a little money, but I got basically nothing else done which spilled over into a busy day today.

[davesaz]

Reundo threw shade at me that whole post then voted someone else lol.

So what do you actually think about it?

[davesaz]

<snip> I hate slow games with tons of lurkers. I'll stir the pot if need be.

TBH I have to agree with this, and I know I'm part of the problem due to work last week. I don't like to replace out merely for activity reasons, especially because it's a crapshoot on whether you'll get someone else worse.

[davesaz]

Not gonna lie, I’m pretty pissed about that night kill.

But it makes sense.

Which is why this next part is gonna be fun.

I’m an odd night watcher. 2 people targeted Profii last night.

I am disappoint. Very disappointed.

You don’t have to say names but do you know which two?

This could be scum trying to check whether it's safe to lie or not.

[davesaz]

Reundo threw shade at me that whole post then voted someone else lol.

What's your point here? Is voting you a requirement for "throwing shade at you"? I can point out things I don't like from players without automatically placing them as my #1 pick for scum. There's other players I'd much rather see lynched today that are also much more likely to actually be lynched today.

Yes but do you have an actual reason for your vote? More to the point, you say other players but it's not clear who they are.

[davesaz]

I don't think it should be her choice.

Why?

If she really is town vengeful then why give scum the opening to try and control the shot? What scenario do you think it is better that a revenge shot completely controlled by town should be not be so?

This is a good point, but I have a question about it -- do you think there is scum you think is trying to direct the shot? Or is this just a general principle you're talking about?

[davesaz]

Going mostly from memory because I didn't get time to do that deep re-read, and most of this is low quality unless stated otherwise.

nonny - lurker
FA_Q2 - weak scum
Unabombah - saw a couple things I thought probably came from town
davesaz - role pm says town
Completly Trustworthy - Doesn't seem to be stretching for scumreads quite as much as the last game we played together, probably town
TheHolySpirit - I copied and pasted the list from the OP and when I got to this one I went WTF? Is this player even in the game? replace by someone? I don't want to open another tab so I'll figure out where the issue was later.
Reundo - lurker and scummy
Flavor Leaf - town for the gambit
Carcalilly - vengeful claim, don't have an independent read on the slot
Tchill13 - isn't doing the normal leaping about and jumping to conclusions that I normally scumread him for when he's town. I see the post explaining that. I think I'll wait for some replies to decide
wilky - dunno, scum side of null I think

[davesaz]

Ah, Gamma replaced TheHolySpirit. Townish feels there.

[davesaz]

Somethings's wrong with my list because too many of the possible scum are lurkers. Gotta go do another thing for my wife, hopefully someone's awake to post while I'm doing that.

[davesaz]

In reply to Gamma Emerald, you haven't taken any of the weird stances that make it harder for me to read you. So far this game is an exception to the general rule that I can't figure out where you're coming from.

Carca and Profii: you should be voting

Where should I vote

I’d like it if you’d vote TiphaineDeath
But you should have a vote SOMEWHERE.

Okay
I was figuring you were going to say sheeping, I was gonna ask why not one of the other wagons if that was your answer

I want everyone to vote in their next post with a one sentence explanation of why they’re voting who they are voting

I think these are town motivated. In a game with short deadlines it's essential to get votes out there sooner rather than later.

[davesaz]

Somethings's wrong with my list because too many of the possible scum are lurkers.

A very "aware" notion imo.. while good, I havent seen anything like this from you ever before, so feels a bit weird though?

But I'll try to turn this into a question now -

in this specific game, don't you think we could actually, for once, have a full lurkerteam of scum?

I have my own thoughts on this, and will share them in full if dave first gives his in-depth answer..

I think I question my own reads often, if that’s what you’re talking about in the first part.

It’s seeming more likely that at least 2 scum are lurking. We don’t see anywhere near as much agenda pushing as normal imo. No time for a wagon switch, my candidates for venge if it’s real would be nonny and wilky I think.

VOTE: carcalilly

Work day don’t know if I’ll be back before eod.

[davesaz]

I had customer meetings all day yesterday 7am-9pm (yes that's a long time).
More meetings today but at least they aren't all day.

Flavor Leaf seems to be saying he was targeted by a loud something. Regardless of what the loud something is, that doesn't preclude having also been RB'd. He did say investigative which might draw scum RB if there is one. The shenanigans might draw any number of town roles wanting to verify he isn't deep wolfing by being himself.

Accordingly I don't think Tchill is mechanically cleared.

[davesaz]

@Tchill, I've been totally open on how crazy the past couple weeks have been. Wednesday was a 14 hour work day. Yesterday was a little shorter but sill more than 8.

[davesaz]

CT's assumption that scum knew Gamma's role is horrible. We have no information suggesting that's the case, and it's a totally valid strategy to kill someone who is townread. FL carried some scum equity from the gamibt so if he's town I could see scum leaving him alive. I'm very much a possible ML target for lurking so scum have no reason to kill me. Lurkers in general are ML targets if they're town, so leave out Reundo and Nonny too. Once you start identifying kills that are potentially worse than Gamma, the more it seems unlikely that scum knew his role and more likely he was just a priority to NK because there are better mislynches available.

What would take more reading would be finding out

why

CT's making that assumption. The stated reasons don't make a lot of sense to me.

I do dig the idea of VT trying to draw a nk for a possible watcher / tracker. And claiming to attempt to avoid lynch is something that I can see fitting CT's apparent personality from the previous game. So if the even night doc -> VT claim is real it's likely to be town motivation. Not enough to conftown but likely.

[davesaz]

I liked 546 and 548 from Una.

[davesaz]

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

[davesaz]

I don't think Reundo answered the question in 475 but he's VLA so guess I'll probably be waiting on that.

[davesaz]

Yes, it was 474. I had asked that question to find out if "other people" were the ones you had voted (Nonny, Wilky) or someone else. I probably glazed the block of text in the post that Tchill was replying to.
Do you still SR Tchill btw?
I too thought Flavor Leaf's reply was a little shallow but he's my strongest TR. But here's a followup on that topic, I'm curious whether you're taking FL's word for what I've been doing or if you actually know yourself.

[davesaz]

The feeling that Tchill is just grasping at any available mislynch is growing by the hour.

[davesaz]

That’s gone on long enough though I was asleep so couldn’t post earlier anyway. Loud 2-shot

doc

.
Crumbed, it is.

[davesaz]

I'm willing to save profii later.

[davesaz]

Didn't expect scum to do the novice n1, thought they'd go for someone more obvtown.

[davesaz]

Like i said at the time, i was just in a game with an even odd pair. On phone so it's hard to quote. The post where I say don't counter. Two half roles is all the rage rn.
I'm less sure about ct post retraction. Can't think of a reason to retract with no pressure unless he was concerned about possible rolecop.

[davesaz]

As a 2-shot and with the only claimed PR a novice, I holstered N1. Better odds of saves N2 and N3.

At the time we switched wagons was there even time to start a different one? I got the impression that Tiphane was just an end of day alternative to the PR claim. I could take a closer look at that if you think I'm wrong about it, though I think we're running out of time today.

[davesaz]

Hmm, tchill just revoted the same wagon he was on, and switched without announcing the l-1. We’re really late in the deadline. If this flips town then tchill and ct might be distancing though it likely wouldn’t matter unless we have another pr hidden. On a scum flip I’m thinking awkward bus from tchill. In either case giving intent in case fa has anything to claim.

[davesaz]

I'll do the bit that requires some external links first. I'm no stranger to games where there are two town players

claiming

the same role.
NY 215 - I'm a claimed odd night vig, there is an even night vig who

doesn't counter claim

.
Fallout Commonwealth - I'm a miller, Wilky is also a miller, we don't treat each other as counter claims. Even with several players yelling that one of us has to be scum.

Yes, I tried to save FL.
Whomever FL visited is scum.

Clearly scum think I'm lynchable.
Have a look at my lynched / NK'd ratio and it's crystal clear. I don't actually keep track of it (too depressing) but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 3:1 or higher.

FL said outside the box.
Boxes are square.
Reundo sounds like round, which is outside the box. That's my best guess on the crumb.
I'm out of shots which makes it mylo unless we have another role. I think it's unlikely we do given balance considerations. In retrospect maybe I should have kept the shot.

[davesaz]

At the point of the (now known to be fake) claim, I believed it and TR'd it because I tend to believe claims in the absence of evidence to the contrary. It's hard to be totally certain unless I left notes, but I think I TR'd CT off meta before the claim.

At the point of the retraction I didn't see a scum motivation .

The real question should be what do I think of it now. Is there now a possible scum motivation for CT having retracted his claim? Yes, I think my original assessment of the retraction might have been wrong. Maybe scum!CT did have a good reason for retracting the claim. Docs that live tend to be questioned on why they live. I'd need to read it again to see if there are additional things to see there.

I don't know how to answer the smart vs stupid question other than to say I hope they don't succeed in manipulating you into voting me.

[davesaz]

Tchill could be scum trying to manipulate town into mislynching me, if he isn’t the one being manipulated by events.

[davesaz]

Which of Flavor or me was more dangerous to scum in a mylo/lylo -- hint, it's not me.
Who was most dangerous to scum in the whole game? I'd say Flavor without question.
I protected the player scum was most likely to try to kill. They don't ever kill me in that situation because

I'm perennial lynchbait

. Tchill in particular

knows

this.
Whether it's a no-kill + visit on scum or a kill+protect+visit on scum, it's still a visit on scum no matter what.

Re: CT -- false dichotomy alert: I'm scum if my stance doesn't change, I'm scum if my stance changes under pressure. Missing 3rd option: my stance changes because I'm town and that's what town does.

Pedit: Una, are you suggesting that we have another role that's undeclared? Don't see how a kill attempt could have gone somewhere else unless there was another role available to stop it. And Flavor still would have had to visit scum right?

[davesaz]

I have a few minutes between meetings. Going from the last thing I remember that needed a reply...

In response to CT asking why I said nobody should counter. I'm a town half-doc. Someone claims half-doc. If I counter and they're scum it outs me and doesn't help town because from my POV I'm more likely than not to be lynched in any given game, probably more so in a 1v1. If I counter and they're town it outs both of us and doesn't help, and worst case it's still a 1v1 and we lose a town doc either way. If someone else counters I can be fairly certain it's a SvTvT (unlikely to have same role 3 times) but I don't know which is which. From my POV if the earlier claim is scum and there is another town half-doc it's better for them to stay hidden and we deal with the first claim without outing everyone. This is of course not taking into account how I'm reading the person who claimed. If I think the claim is fake I can push it without reference to whether a counter should be made or not.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Reundo

[davesaz]

I'm going to say something absolutely true about rl. I stopped going apeshit when people scumread me because I started getting worried I'd have an actual stroke from the high blood pressure. My new style is to play my role and put in the available time if any. I just haven't had the time. My vote is where I think our best hope of staying in it. I have very little confidence in my reads. This is what I do when I'm out of the zone. It hasn't been a good game for me.

I'm sitting in a campground. Thought day would end yesterday and night (if any) would be while I was out here. I barely had signal to phone post, hope this goes through. If we lynch scum it will still be hard to figure out the partner. Hope there's another day to come back to.

[davesaz]

I have no objections to PT release.

[davesaz]

The loud applied to all actions, not just the doc.
I was surprised it wasn't announced public -- that's how loud worked the last time I saw it. That difference in assumption changed how I played N1.

[davesaz]

FWIW I'd never look back that many posts to find your crumb of target.
What we actually thought you might mean was think <- my avatar.