Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[skitter30]

Scum! Ruru could easily claim bg safe in the knowledge I can't rb her tonight.

she isn't getting mislynched tho and she's ultimately going to have to explain why she isn't dead if she's in lylo

or if you die

[skitter30]

or maybe daytalk? idk

i feel like scum in most scenarios doesn't want to take a lot of prs

[Irrelephant11]

@skitter you've already said this game the only modifier you'd take is daytalk..?

What will this town do re:Alonzo's slot if ruru dies tonight and then Alonzo lives to mylo? Just trying to think how believable I think his claim is, especially since only two players claimed after him (few enough that even if both ruru and skitter were PRs it would sound reasonable for him to also be a PR)
Oh wait I see the hole in this logic already... Scum!Alonzo knew only one of them would claim PR but not what they'd claim, and definitely not that one of them would claim BG, so claiming roleblocker was pretty risky there if scum

Still, though, the question remains: what will happen if Alonzo is alive in mylo? I don't want to let him coast there off this claim.

pedit: lol skitter I guess that sort of answers my original question

[Irrelephant11]

I don't want to let him coast there off this claim.

eh maybe I do

ruru's claim is definitely fishier if she's alive to mylo - scum!her knew there was no BG and she could claim it

[skitter30]

so, if scum is faking a pr here, they know:

-> there's only two pr's (since we're assuming scum is faking the third claim)

-> one of them is ic

-> there appears to not be a vig or bg

-> and scum!alonzo thinks that someone after him in the list is an unclaimed pr, one of {gc/tracker/rb}

so from his pov he has a 2/3 chance of picking one that isn't the game, which idk for me is kinda risky, because if he's wrong it's an immediate 1v1

i'm going to worry about scum!alonzo after ruru dies and after todays flip - like if we end up with a nk he's very very very likely town and we have a 1v1 to resolve

but for now it's not super relevant imo since he isn't getting lynched or nk'd in the immediate future so i'll figure it out then

[skitter30]

pedit: lol skitter I guess that sort of answers my original question

yeah idk i guess i changed my mind

it would def be traitor or daytalk

[BuJaber]

i feel kinda :/ about you using the pyp x|y reasoning to townread me cuz it feels kinda angle-shoot-y. i guess i should have been more careful about that but it's not something i meant to do on purpose

I mean... I brought it up a lot earlier.. this was just for the benefit of performer.

I don't feel great about using it... but like it happened and it's not something you should feel bad about at all because it's not your fault.. it was a private mafia thread and it's pretty unreasonable to expect anyone to consider how it could affect an entirely different game. But like I can't exactly ignore it and I had you as a townread before this just helped relieve any paranoia and help me locktown you.

[Korina]

@Skitter Personally, I'd rather take JOAT over Daytalk. If I knew my partner was really good at scum-play, I'd consider taking it, however, I'd rather save it for a scum PR and to help prevent a possible guilty from a GC. Daytalk is just a free PR for town.

@skitter you've already said this game the only modifier you'd take is daytalk..?

What will this town do re:Alonzo's slot if ruru dies tonight and then Alonzo lives to mylo? Just trying to think how believable I think his claim is, especially since only two players claimed after him (few enough that even if both ruru and skitter were PRs it would sound reasonable for him to also be a PR)
Oh wait I see the hole in this logic already... Scum!Alonzo knew only one of them would claim PR but not what they'd claim, and definitely not that one of them would claim BG, so claiming roleblocker was pretty risky there if scum

Still, though, the question remains: what will happen if Alonzo is alive in mylo? I don't want to let him coast there off this claim.

pedit: lol skitter I guess that sort of answers my original question

I'd disagree. RBer is actually the safest claim that Scum!Alonzo could make without bringing up questions, gambitting or shooting himself down the line. I didn't get into details on why I would've thought about fake-claiming RBer in #2715, but, my logic would've been that only scum or another PR would know that I lied about it.
It's actually a pretty safe claim.
The only way it could be disproven is if:
a) someone is actually RBer
b) Alonzo claimed to have RB a GC/his RB is proven to be false

[ruru]

alonzo's claim would look like a 67% play for scum (assuming he thought there's no bg/vig) to not get cc'd

the slots it could potentially un-conftown in the current situation aren't very mislynchable, and scum would be expecting {tracker, gc, rb}, meaning if they wanted to try to mislynch an un-conftowned {skitter, me} they would also be planning on leaving an investigative alive overnight

since that's not a good motivation to fakeclaim, probably the only way alonzo is scum here is if he innoed his partner which feels pointlessly risky to me when alonzo wasn't in the lynchpool anyway

[skitter30]

i feel kinda :/ about you using the pyp x|y reasoning to townread me cuz it feels kinda angle-shoot-y. i guess i should have been more careful about that but it's not something i meant to do on purpose

I mean... I brought it up a lot earlier.. this was just for the benefit of performer.

I don't feel great about using it... but like it happened and it's not something you should feel bad about at all because it's not your fault.. it was a private mafia thread and it's pretty unreasonable to expect anyone to consider how it could affect an entirely different game. But like I can't exactly ignore it and I had you as a townread before this just helped relieve any paranoia and help me locktown you.

yeah idk i felt like acknowledging it would be confirming it kinda and i feel like it's a little wrong ethically to have written something in one game that could heavily imply my alignment here so it's bothering me a little bit. again not something i'd do on purpose. like i would maybe do something like 'look at what i did in this past game in a similar scenario and compare it to here' after the fact but like i wouldn't do whatever it was in the first game intentionally planning to cite it in another game when the first game ended.

on a different note i have a theory that scum tend to locktown people or like overstate townreads on them if they think the townie is unlynchable. like i'm thinking of a game where i was never getting mislynched and i then additionally got gunsmith-cleared; someone else got gunsmith-cleared too but i was called locktown by scum while the other guy was theorized to be a mafia doctor. or another game where someone was a friendly neighbor and scum called her mod-confirmed town when she had friendly-neighborized someone else; she wasn't actually mod-confirmed town to him

like kinda like scum know that the townie isn't lynchable so they find something to townread them super strongly, almost out-of-degree for what actually happened

and i'm low-key getting that vibe here with this

[BuJaber]

Yeah that's probably true of scum in general but I think it's usually to try to imitate townie confidence or something like that.

Here the impact of your surprise flip in pyp was distracting people from solving the game. I felt it was necessary to force focus on sorting other players.

[Performer]

Not sure what to make of bujaber suddenly putting irrel & I in his sr.

The more I read from irrel, the townier he feels . like his posts about what if alonzo makes it to lylo, then that would be absolutely alarming but I don't see how that can happen . If he's fake claiming , we lynch him, if he's not, he will be targeted.
I don't think ruru should protect anyone then in that case because if both are truth telling, 1 of them dies and that helps us get less paranoid, it clears up some chaos for improved scumhunting.
------------
Also just thought of something - if alonzo is telling the truth, that means enigma is cleared. 1 scum died already, the only other 1 who can do an nk already did one on n2....so alonzo blocking enigma = enig town.

I think it also makes sense if alonzo was fake claiming & was actually traitor, then his rb on enigma on n2 would've made sense as scum fake claim? So in that case, enigma is scum and alonzo = traitor? Because looking at enigma's ISO alone - you can say I'm insane but I'm an old school/traditional town player - his ISO is still very suspicious .

Alonzo flew from not changing his stance on enigma being scum, to tw/ruru, to bujaber.
Something isn't right here.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow what
there's so much in that post that doesn't make sense to me

-Ruru should 100% protect Alonzo, Alonzo death would then scumfirm ruru and Alonzo's the only useful PR here (in addition to the fact his claim is much more believable than ruru's)
-Enigma isn't cleared at all? He could be traitor or there could be three groupscum
-Agreed that enigma's ISO has some suspicious parts but I'd love to see you elaborate on that especially given this post

pgs 102-103 make me tr enigma. The summary and reads provided, also help my read. But why was tw tunneling you?

Why ruru, do you sr enigma? Thanks for also providing a summary.
And you mentioned skiitter inno on you? As in...she claimed investigative, checked you, and said you were clear? Need to be sure what you're saying - if so, then you should be town.

town block so far: enigma.
reevaluating alonzo since he didn't go into why he has me & ruru as scum.

regarding skitter's question about my meta with alonzo - I played 2 games where he was town. He did alright. One of those newbie games I was a scum IC, they were lucky with a quick hammer type of player in their town ranks, and my partner and his replace in didn't do too well....anyway, I'm probably not that reliable in reading alonzo. His playstyle isn't exactly easy to read, and I would need to see more from him than many of his bare posts. I get that he has a family and probably phone posts a lot, but bare posting constantly is scummy.

Please do tell what "isn't right here"

[Irrelephant11]

also I'm just now realizing you're trying to call enigma locktown and your scummiest read in the same post??
I'm just actually really confused, tell me more

[Performer]

Here's a thought - we leash alonzo onto who he & us agree to be blocked. That should help us narrow things down.

If town and failed = he dies since scum kills him
If town and succeeded = that's great, likely confirmed scum target
If he succeeded but the block target flipped green after lynch = lynch alonzo next day with prejudice since that means he lied

In my case on enigma , he included irrel, me, buj, and alonzo in his ISO of people to lynch/sr but didn't include nm. Alonzo NOT looking at enigma this d3 phase with no reasoning afaik, is alarming by itself.
-------
On a related note, I have a bad feeling about buj , as in I don't think he's scum here.
Him voting enigma after I posted my case on enigma, actually makes sense from a town perspective because enigma pushed for buj AND my death, and I absolutely am town here. So buj's vote on enig makes sense as a town process.

[skitter30]

performer's either town or groupscum without a traitor imo because i feel like he doesn't really understand the whole 'recruit traitor' notion

[Performer]

also I'm just now realizing you're trying to call enigma locktown and your scummiest read in the same post??
I'm just actually really confused, tell me more

trying to think of all realities here.

Regarding ruru & alonzo, basically my idea is ruru doesn't bg anybody and alonzo works with us to do an agreed roleblock on a coordinated target. I want to hear thoughts from ruru, alonzo, everyone else about this. I think this is the safest route because I myself am suspicious of 1 or both of them end up somehow getting to lylo.

[skitter30]

1 scum died already, the only other 1 who can do an nk already did one on n2....so alonzo blocking enigma = enig town.

sorry, i meant groupscum with a traitor there

like the implicit asssumption here is that there can't be 3 groupscum and that enigma can't be traitor

[Irrelephant11]

Why does that preclude Performer being traitor?

[Performer]

performer's either town or groupscum without a traitor imo because i feel like he doesn't really understand the whole 'recruit traitor' notion

Going by what the setup says, there's IS a traitor. And I was saying alonzo could be traitor and enigma could be the groupscum with nm, who flipped red. Anyway, that's just my hypothetical .

At the same time I don't see what you mean by "recruit traitor." I'm under the impression that if scum chose that, they can recruit the traitor?
Well in that case couldn't alonzo still have possibly fake claimed with enigma no matter who is who?

Despite anything else, enigma's ISO alone is the scummiest of anybody's. Combined with everything else that's happened along with poe, my vote is still staying on enigma.

[Performer]

also I'm just now realizing you're trying to call enigma locktown and your scummiest read in the same post??
I'm just actually really confused, tell me more

trying to think of all realities here.

Regarding ruru & alonzo, basically my idea is ruru doesn't bg anybody and alonzo works with us to do an agreed roleblock on a coordinated target. I want to hear thoughts from ruru, alonzo, everyone else about this. I think this is the safest route because I myself am suspicious of 1 or both of them end up somehow getting to lylo.

to expand on this, I don't know if anybody has much experience with games where scum fake claim, but it absolutely is a reality in some games I've played in or observed. So, that is also why I am suggesting this idea.

[Irrelephant11]

On a related note, I have a bad feeling about buj , as in I don't think he's scum here.Him voting enigma after I posted my case on enigma, actually makes sense from a town perspective because enigma pushed for buj AND my death, and I absolutely am town here. So buj's vote on enig makes sense as a town process.

Regarding ruru & alonzo, basically my idea is ruru doesn't bg anybody and alonzo works with us to do an agreed roleblock on a coordinated target. I want to hear thoughts from ruru, alonzo, everyone else about this. I think this is the safest route because I myself am suspicious of 1 or both of them end up somehow getting to lylo.

this is scum right

[skitter30]

i'm pretty sure he can't be a traitor because he'd know that there's so much wrong with that statement (ie that enigma shouldn't be cleared for being rb'd with living group scum)

and if he's groupscum with a traitor i think he'd know that the traitor can be rb'd without confirming alignment either way with living groupscum

and if he's groupscum without a traitor i think he'd know that there are two people who could do the nk, so enigma shouldn't be cleared

maybe the second one i'm a little uncertain of because it's possible he hasn't thought through the implications of there being a traitor but i don't think he's a traitor and i don't think he's groupscum without a traitor

sorry i needed to talk that out to myself

[Irrelephant11]

But like
If he's traitor
Then fhpov it's just

true

that enigma getting roleblocked means enigma is conftown

[skitter30]

Role Modifications
During pre-game, mafia have 72 hours to select which (if any) of the modifications they want to their team. A maximum of three modifications may be selected:

- Bulletproof
- Role Cop
- JOAT (1 shot Strongman, 1 shot Ninja)
- Daytalk (passive ability)
- Recruit Traitor as Mafia Goon

if this last option happens there's effectively 3 mafia goons (with the possibility of any of the three getting a pr if they choose them) and no traitor in effect once the game starts

scum know whether or not that's a thing but town doesn't