Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Thor665]

That is an aggressive amount of votes without anyone doubling up.

Vote: Sesq

Would also vote Lady Angel, Guilty Lion, or FA_Q

[Thor665]

Would also vote Doubting Thomas.

[Thor665]

you don't like good music??

I may or I may not - I definitely don't like bad noise to content ratios in posting.

I remember your avi lane. Been awhile.

VOTE: eragon

Cats - cats are terrible. Dogs are WAY better. Everyone knows cat people are always scum.

I do believe this person just claimed scum.

This game EZ

If you believe that - why aren't you voting them?
If you don't believe that - why do you think the joke is worth posting?

[Thor665]

And what’s with the “I would also vote [4 people]”

Are those actual thoughts or RvS

Those are actual thoughts if you note that I express lack of joy in seeing people not start creating wagons and that I specifically cited all the posters who had come in at a certain point and continued empty RVS instead of trying to get something going - and also the empty poster who is, functionally, part and parcel of the same issue.

Why did it not come across clearly to you?

Would you like to move your vote to sesq?
If no - why not?
If yes - please do so.

[Thor665]

Becuase it’s RvS and the votes mean nothing?

The votes mean as much as they ever do unless we're not allowed to lynch someone yet, which isn't a rule I'm aware of

The so-called “continuing RvS” is pretty much through post 15-16(not sure exact), and it’s just the way to start the game.

WHy do you think they were doing it in a pro-town way?
If you don't - then why try to talk me down from taking it as scum indicative?

And why did you not call me out for RvS’in or the other person you didn’t mention?(I forget)

Because you were early enough it was less certain that you were intentionally avoiding creating wagons.
Were you intentionally avoiding creating a wagon?

I’m not moving my vote to Sesq Becuase I see no reason to see them as scum,

Why do you see them as less scumm (or A50 as more scummy) than your current vote?
If you find them equal why not move?
If you think the votes are meaningless - why not move?

[Thor665]

I also feel goos about Thor (one of the most dangerous scum players in multi-ball)

If you think I have a rep as dangerous scum, why in the world are you town sorting me and buddying this early?

[Thor665]

Also, hi Thor. Any particular reason for sesq over the others?

Burden of proficiency.

Unvote: Sesq
Vote: Doubting Thomas

[Thor665]

Basically the same Q goes to thor though - why vote there when there is a decent case (at least for this early) that he is the mime? It feels like you just want to jump on any wagon at all....

Presuming it's a decent case (to which I actually reply 'meh') why do you oppose the Mime wincon exactly?
I do want to jump on any wagon I support right now, and this is the largest one in current existence and I don't town read him, so why shouldn't I be voting him?

Random votes hold the same power as regular votes, but not the same meaning
A vote in post 14 /=/ a vote in post 73, one random and he other with reasoning

And yet they are more alike than different. ::shrug::

I don’t think it’s scum indicative or pro-town. RvS is purely NAI, and I can’t see why RvS would be AI ever.

If RVS is never alignment indicative how do we ever get out of RVS to where votes have more meaning?

Early enough is just based on timing getting to the thread.
I don’t think anyone voting in RvS is trying to avoid creating a wagon, it’s jsut voting someone randomly, hence Random. Voting. stage.

I agree it is timing - that is immaterial to my tell. The people whose timing gave them greater info should have reacted to that info if they are playing pro-town. Failure to do so makes them a valid lynch option at this point. Hope this is making sense to you.
I agree that is one way to consider RVS - I think it is a pro-scum/poor town play mindset however and do not support town players playing that way.

Becuase why would I put a third vote on someone that’s had 1 RvS vote, that is NAI, and no reasoning?

Because you have an equal scum read to them as someone you are voting - so what's the difference? Is your goal *not* to apply pressure with your vote? What are you doing voting if you need a case?

And the first RvS vote is always meaningless, becuase its random.

There are varying levels of random.

[Thor665]

Because you have an equal scum read to them as someone you are voting - so what's the difference? Is your goal *not* to apply pressure with your vote? What are you doing voting if you need a case?

@Eragon

[Thor665]

If it's because they didn't vote, wouldn't it only make sense to vote the last one? I'd assume the longer it goes on the more scummy in your eyes. And not exactly sure why sesq

Someone already asked me this - my answer remains the same; burden of proficiency.

Is there something about that answer you don't grok?

Because you have an equal scum read to them as someone you are voting - so what's the difference? Is your goal *not* to apply pressure with your vote? What are you doing voting if you need a case?

@Eragon

@Eragon

[Thor665]

That being said, the possibility of lynching a mime actually makes me kind of scared to lynch. How viable would no lynch be as an option?

The fear of lynching a Mime Day 1 is so tiny it should barely be considered - the only danger comes on a day *after* we lynch a Mime and no Mimes are nightkilled.
Since we're not in that situation I fail to see the issue - can you describe why no lynching is beneficial in catching the Mimes and Mafia? If not - that sort of answers your question for you, yeah?

If you think the case is meh then do you think it is a better or worse case than 'did not create a wagon with first post?'

I would consider it roughly equivalent.

[Thor665]

Well I don't know what grok is...

http://www.letmegooglethat.com/?q=grok

But burden of proficiency eh? Do we know each other? Have we ever played with each other? Should I know you? I don't know what burden of proficiency has anything to do with it. Explain that.

Yes.
I don't think we know each other.
I don't think we've played together.
I don't know if you should know me - should you? Have I suggested you should in any way? This is weird.
Here's an explanation of burden of proficiency; http://www.letmegooglethat.com/?q=burden+of+proficiency
tl:dr - he's a good enough player I hold him to a higher standard than players I am less familiar with.
Make sense to you now?

[Thor665]

I literally explained how I was using it.
Are you intentionally trying to be dense or did my actual explanation translate to what you're saying here?
I don't mind explaining myself, but if you're playing dense for reactions I'm already bored.

[Thor665]

there is no difference from changing an RvS vote to a vote that isnt my, so why would i do it?

To create more pressure, elicit stronger reactions from people for or against the wagon, and to advance the possibility of a lynch.
Why wouldn't you move?

As far as I can tell you explained it as "burden of proficiency". So please, explain it again because I seem to misunderstand how sesq not finding scum yet makes him scum.

To repeat myself;

tl:dr - he's a good enough player I hold him to a higher standard than players I am less familiar with.

To restate the original question you asked me;
"Why are you voting Sesq over some people who did lackluster non-wagon votes later, wouldn't doing it later make them more suspect than him?"
Taken together - I consider the lackluster voting potentially scummy because they're not advancing town wincon.
BoP on Sesq is a base standard of - I believe moreso about him than the others that he should know better.

Make sense now?

[Thor665]

okay so I think A50, Thor, DT, probably Eragon, maybe lane all town

Lane?

[Thor665]

okay so I think A50, Thor, DT, probably Eragon, maybe lane all town

Lane?

you have your vote on me. you dont want to ask him why he town reads me?

You came in terrible and then reacted with coverup activity.
I can understand someone deciding the coverup activity is legit though I would disagree with the conclusion.
I am honestly left with no idea why anyone would see Lane as town.

Do you think I should be honestly left with no idea why someone could see you as town? If so - start playing better?

[Thor665]

okay so I think A50, Thor, DT, probably Eragon, maybe lane all town

Lane?

yes Lane - why is he scum?

I'm not sure if he is - but thus far the extent of his efforts have been a very aggressively pedantic and misrepresentative series of questions/attacks on me and then kind of awkwardly stepping back on it when called on the issue.

I would think, at the very least, the question of whether it was an intentional misrep would keep him in the null category and am at a loss as to why you have him in a town lean category.

Clarify?

[Thor665]

Just to walk you through his posting, here's a quick summation;

You don't have to respond with "I got us out of RVs didn't I?" But I think your questions on the way there were just.... I need to find the words.

Here's his explanation of his vote on me which, based on his later explanations, is pretty suspect to begin with.

Well I don't know what grok is... But burden of proficiency eh?

Do we know each other? Have we ever played with each other? Should I know you?

I don't know what burden of proficiency has anything to do with it. Explain that.

This is a strange non-sequitur which kind of acts like I'm up to something but that I literally did nothing to trigger (and when I asked him about it he ducked the question)

This logical fallacy is based on the assumption that renowned players are expected to find scum. The attacker asserts that because the player in question has not yet found (enough) scum, they themselves are more likely to be scum...

So because he didn't find scum by the 4th post... He's the most likely to be scum?

I honestly thought you were confused about what burden of proficiency and were using it incorrectly

The bold is a direct misrep - especially considering in the post he's responding to I explicitly described how I was applying the tell.
The line immediately after the misrep acts like this is something he's been analyzing for a while (even though he was the second person to ask me the same question and needed to have th eanswer repeated to him - which looks to me like a fake scumhunting tell.)

As far as I can tell you explained it as "burden of proficiency". So please, explain it again because I seem to misunderstand how sesq not finding scum yet makes him scum.

He's called on the misrep and then asks me to explain again rather than offering up his reasoning to have reached the analysis conclusion of me not understanding the tell (never mind that if he had decided I was dense and was using the tell name wrong that there is no evidence to suggest that is remotely scummy)

It's not a pretty progression of thought. It reads like he found something he thinks he could paint as "wrong" and attacked it rather than finding something he thinks is scummy.
Now, yes, he may just be sloppy town, I am debating that - but to have him as town anything at this stage boggles my mind.

[Thor665]

innocentvillager replaces ldkldldldkdkdkdklllkkk

Straight upgrade.

[Thor665]

innocentvillager replaces ldkldldldkdkdkdklllkkk

Straight upgrade.

you're going to be disappointed im super rusty and terrible at this game

Straight downgrade

This is where I thought you were confused about what it was... I thought you were applying it to you and I?

Why did you think that?
There's literally nothing either you or I said to draw that conclusion from.
I asked you about that earlier and you never responded.

When you said you already explained it, I thought I'd find it in the posts where you talked about burden of proficiency. I didn't know you were referencing our conversation.

It was exactly in that post - I quoted it for you in our last exchange.

But my vote isn't about that. It was your early game. Which I haven't addressed yet. I understand it looks as though i had attempted to "find the words" so I can't fault you for thinking that. But I haven't.

Okay.
Guess it won't matter now that you're leaping onto Sesq.
But then I don't think you're likely to convince me you're scumhunting anytime soon either, so...

So, we play to "read".. yet when there's nothing to read it is scummy to say so? We play to "find scum", what when nobody's been posting anything of substance and/or AI it is still my job to find scum based on "void"??

I'll be damned if this doesn't flip scum. My vote is stuck here until this slot is dead "one way or the other".

Almost, could we please not go down this rage tunnel thing again - haven't you moved past this habit yet? You and I both know there are sloppy and skillful town who are going to act that way and I rarely see the rage wagon trigger particularly useful feedback - I know it's happy to go down that pah and I still do it too much myself, but I actually like his alignment's odds to be town for calling out one of the more active and generically town read slots at this juncture, yeah?

[Thor665]

@Thor: I'm not at all angry. It's a legit read.

Sure, but you know I've seen you go into a hard tunnel based on standards before - it doesn't always end well.
You have straws - the straws might mean something, sure, but you're extroverting their meaning at a level way beyond what they deserve.

This is more or less where I am eight now, so make a case on someone I'm not Mime reading and I'll follow.

What's your take on my Lane case?

since for some reason Almost doesn't want to push my wagon despite me being his most confident scumread, can you explain his argument to me? It seems like you kind of understand where he's coming from but I don't

Where do you get that he's not pushing it? He is absolutely pushing it - maybe not in the most efficient way humanely possible, but he's pushing it as much or more than basically anyone else is pushing their cases at the moment. This feels like an empty attack, yeah?

I would say the quickest way to explain it is to say "go do a search for games where Almost is town, and just read how he plays" Yes, he does the same as scum, but that's beside the point. The core revelation is that he tends to (much like myself, which is why I'm sympathetic to his position) get a burr up his backside when people "are not playing right".

You did something he considers inherently poor play, so the working theory from that is you're scum.
It seems like a fairly clear case even if you don't agree to it - why is his stance coming across as confusing and not being pushed to you?

also your post gives me the shudders but people are townreading you for some reason I'm probably just not seeing so i'll let that go

If my case gives you shudders then address me about the shudders - otherwise you're not scumhunting and certainly avoiding trying to sort me.
I'm pretty sure people are towning me for a mix of activity and me being willing to state some opinions clearly.

honestly idk what's going on i'll revisit this tmr

Sesq seems like an easy lynch.
I'm personally more down for DT or Lane at this stage, but I'll admit to not hating the Sesq lynch because...hey, it's an easy lynch for a reason.
Most of the deadness is lack of activity and people not really planting on cases. I support you helping to combat that.

[Thor665]

Thor, I'm a bit confused. You've been pushing lane pretty hard recently, but your vote is still on DT*, and there isn't a whole lot save for a few passing comments about in your ISO to explain that read.

*Who by the way is apparently V/LA until deadline? Come on...

I actually haven't been pushing Lane overly hard - and indeed the extent of my push is based off;
1. A person offering a town read on him and me explaining why I question it.
2. A person expressing disinterest with a DT vote and me asking about his opinion on my other prime read.

So, I fundamentally disagree with your core concept that I'm pushing pretty hard on Lane and dismiss the aspect of your question based on that premise.
That leaves your question at a slightly attacky "hey, explain your read" question. Since you're the first person to ask here;

In short, it can be summed up as "everything people are calling him a Mime over except that you should apply my expressed indifference towards the idea of Mime hunting as a concern"

To unpack that a bit; I'd expand my core issue to his kind of apathetic lackluster entry paired with a flurry of activity as soon as he got heat over it (and now paired with potential strategic lurk as soon as heat moved off him). Basically he's playing in a way that seems more based on surviving till Day 2 than in finding scum and lynching them.

Make sense?

Also - why do you think I was pushing Lane hard exactly? There is basically nothing to support that idea in my posts or actions.
Also, would you vote either Lane or DT over Sesq? I would happily argue that the extent of the case on Sesq could be applied to either of them by simply changing the names, and then I've presented other aspects against both of them in addition to the Sesq case - so wouldn't that make my push on both of them superior to the Sesq one?

[Thor665]

So far, based off tone I have like IV, but I’ll take a look later when I acually have time to read the posts

Can you describe your process a bit? Not sure how you're getting tone but still need to read the posts.

[Thor665]

On that note though, I do disagree that you haven't been pushing Lane. 132 was a response to Lion's townread, but you make comments like "I am honestly left with no idea why anyone would see Lane as town." in 125 and "But then I don't think you're likely to convince me you're scumhunting anytime soon either, so... " in 161, and you even just referred to it as your case on him in 173. It read as more aggressive than you're indicating, but that may just be a play style difference?

You have succesfully argued that I expressed a scumread and described it.
I am not sure why you consider that aggressive either.
If you puzzle it out, let me know.

Sesq gets more scumpoints for this imo:

not changing my vote [on lane] because its real this time

no idea why i kept my vote on lane. this is why i should keep a notes document. dont really see any reason to move it though and no other scum

I don't know how much I see town with this level of apathy towards the game - this is about as empty of a vote as possible.

How do you compare that from Sesq with, for example the nearly identical behavior of Lane who voted me for reasons he can't describe, attacked me for reasons he couldn't support, went back to the non-describable reasons, then hard moved to Sesq in support of your basically unexplained case there?
Are you seriously considering that not even similar to your expressed Sesq issue here?

I'm a little conflicted about a DT wagon at the moment considering he's V/LA for the rest of the day phase according to the Activity Overview page. This bugs me for a few reasons. If he's town, then he's an inactive and scummy looking townie at best, meaning that if he survives the day he would be an easy mislynch wagon to push Day 2. Buuuuuut I also don't want to give him a free pass just because he's not around. At the very least, there are other people around here that would actually be able to respond to pressure votes and I think that would be a much better use of our time considering the slower gamestate right now.

Considering the slower gamestate I'm waaaaaaay past votes for pressure myself.
I think we'll be lucky to get off one wagon and claim at this rate.

Ok.. just checked my notes and lane is totally null. He

could

be a goon, a mime or a townie with no "extra points" for me to favour one over the other. But -of course- that's in a vacuum and ignoring all other reads, because if IV is scum I don't see lane as his p and if DT is mime I don't see lane as his p either.

I would note that you could bump DT to three votes, and you at least think he's not town aligned.
You could bump Lane to three votes because I'd obviously move to make that happen - and your best argument for not lynching him is based off Day 1 suppositions about theory partners...so I'm pretty sure that's a wet noodle argument, yeah?

It's either that or REALLY stepping up your advancement of the IV case, a player that at least myself and one other have expressed either directly or indirectly town vibes on - which means you need to be kicking it into overtime, yeah?

[Thor665]

huh??

Can't really clarify unless you hone in on where I'm losing you.

^^ that is a "fairly clear case even if I don't agree to it"?? are we reading the same thing thor

Okay, let's babystep it (because my answer is 'yes, it is fairly clear')
Where is his vote on you being lost exactly? Are you claiming you have no idea at all what his issue is?

what I mean by not pushing is basically just empty voting and proclaiming im scum but (1) not caring about other people voting/not voting me and (2) not explaining/refusing to explain to others why I'm scum. If he does either one of those I'd call it a push but if he's doing neither then imo it updates negatively for him

I'll agree he's doing 1.
He's not doing 2 unless I've missed something - I'll note that I just got dinged by Rocky for not describing a case when literally no one had asked me to yet, and might suggest that there is a noted lack of interest in people this game to ask questions prior to hurling suspicion, yeah?

I don't know where you're getting that from. I specifically said that I was okay with a lane vote because of his lack of activity, and even mentioned that I saw him potentially buddying me with his sesq vote. I just think my vote is better positioned as is at the moment.

I was being fairly clear I thought - I quoted you describing your primary Sesq suspicion and made a direct compare/contrast of it to Lane's play and asked why one was a primary suspect and the other was kind of a "meh" read by your own words.
It's great that you suspect him, I think you *should* suspect him. What I want to know is why I can't get your vote on him when the case is basically identical to your other case - and the extent of your answer is "my current vote is better positioned" which is nonsense because the best you've argued for that is "pressure to get content" and, frankly, Lane could do with that just as much as Sesq could, so again - what's the point in not moving if asked?

Do you have an issue with my vote being on sesq instead of lane right now?

Clearly I do, I've expressed a case on Lane, have called Lane one of my prime scumreads, and have suggested that the case on Sesq could be applied to Lane (or DT) whole hog.
Do you have an issue that locks you to Sesq so hard that can actually be described?

you have a good reputation for scum which obviously makes me slightly more skeptical when everyone townreads you. but everyone else also knows that, but they're still townreading you anyway, and I assume they know your meta better

I've actually not played with a fair chunk of this player base.
I would like to think I also have a rep as decent town, no?

that one post you wrote that I felt weird about felt oddly manipulative but im not sure i have more than that gutshot. Maybe you're coaching Almost or something although i hate positing these low probability scenarios.

What did I try to coach Almost on outside of advising him not to rage tunnel you?
And wouldn't that suggest I'm as much potentially your partner as I am his?

[Thor665]

also what. and yeah there was a weird buddy vibe to it

Well, feel free to have my admission I did exactly that for your case needs.

what i mean is im less inclined to TR you from everyone else TRing you, like you're pretty null for me rn ill keep you around for now

Very hipster

Do you dislike the DT or Lane wagons particularly? Or do you like the Sesq one for some reason I'm missing?

[Thor665]

Look... FMPOV this is a tvt back and forth, Thor. Unless you're townreading sesq (at which point I would really need to know why), there shouldn't be an issue with me pressuring her. We still have over 4 days to deadline - I should be on and fairly active for at least 3 of those days. *Just to clarify again - I don't disagree with your lane read and I'm not against his vote/lynch, but Sesq is a top wagon right now, and I'm okay keeping my vote here.*

Considering I would like to have us already have someone at L-1 at this stage, and considering that I don't think pressure announced as pressure = pressure.
Yeah, I'm not thrilled with your current vote.

To people who have played with Almost50 before, especially Thor,
Are posts like this, particularly the tone of them pretty standard coming from him? Or is this more confrontational than you'd expect?

I would be worried if Almost wasn't being confrontational.

[Thor665]

Sesq - 4 - RockyHorror, lane0168, innocentvillager, GuiltyLion
DoubtingThomas - 3 - Fink, Thor665, Almost50
Almost50 - 1 - Eragon

lane0168

Guilty Lion - 1 - Sesq
Eragon - 1 - FA_Q2

Not Voting - DoubtingThomas, Lady Angel, UnrealSeal

Lady Angel needs replace and Unreal Seal owe everyone an apology (and, frankly, needs a replace).
Rocky needs to learn what using all the time means.

Eragon - seriously, what do you think your useless Almost vote is doing right now with two days left? You should hop onto Sesq, DT, or the new Guilty wagon.
FA_Q2 - same thing, you're sitting on this boring Eragon wagon and I can't even remember the last time you called him scummy and if you offered me a million dollars right now I couldn't describe your case. Your vote and your play is doing nothing with two days till deadline.

Both of you should move your votes.
Sesq gets a pass because at least he's, in theory, pushing a new angle, but he really needs to be aggressive on that one to have it matter.

To be frank, Lane, IV, and Fink aren't doing much for their wagons either. But at least their votes are in a power position, so that's something.

I think DT is an okay lynch due to the case I've already described
Sesq I'm a bit leery on because the last minute activity at least feels...unique, usually unique thoughts trend towards being town thoughts in my experience. Certainly if the goal was survival a DT vote would be smarter at this stage and I don't think Sesq is dumb.
I'd also be not uninterested in a lol-fast UnrealSeal wagon, the fact he's not up for replacement and has contributed what he's contributed curls my toes.
The mini wagons sadden me.
Whoever told me two days ago how we had so much time still saddens me.

[Thor665]

@FA_Q - you can disregard some of the abuse in my above post, on this read through I realize you did move.
All other abuse is still factual and deserved

[Thor665]

Null

[Thor665]

Since you're obviously trying to be king of this town though, please educate me about time management in Mafia.

You're being hurt and confrontational.
It's a simple reality - has town used its time well?
If you think the answer is anything other than 'no' I can't help you.
We should have put someone to L-1 days ago.

[Thor665]

3 players are either up for replacement or about to be and there are 3 others that were MIA over the weekend. Obviously town hasn't used its time well.

Agreed, so the annoyance at me pointing out the issue and acting like I'm trying to take some sort of weird leadership role is what exactly?

I really don't want to lol lynch a slot that has 0 AI content like Lady/Unreal, and the DT slot is being replaced. I'm still okay with my sesq vote.

Why not?
I would lay dollars to doughnuts that at least two scum are in the bottom third least active posters.

also, why havent people unvoted dt? i want people voting dt to answer this individually.

Well, for starters - there hasn't exactly been any argument to suggest he should be unvoted.
Second up, the only place I'd move off him at this exact moment is to vote you, and I expressed my reasoning there already.
Am I missing something?

[Thor665]

You would unvote with 2 days left and the only other wagon of note being yourself?
If you're town, you're playing iffy.

[Thor665]

@thor your asking what my vote does?

Shows who I think is scum

Do you think all the other wagons with more votes are on town?

[Thor665]

Also, if you think he's scum - what are you planning to do to get him lynched?
Because unless you do something - he won't be lynched.

[Thor665]

id rather someone just Smurfing respond to my read on guiltylion. nobody has. not even him

Generally it helps when you ask some*one* to do something.
Group asking, or not asking and then being annoyed at lack of response to either situation is strangely common.

I stand by my previous commentary - I find him null. I don't see much meat in your case, and frankly considering how I could flip your name into his name and have the case make just as much sense I'm worried that you do find meat in it.

I would lay dollars to doughnuts that at least two scum are in the bottom third least active posters.

sold

wait but also why

Even taking out the people who I think are lurking for legit reasons this game's pace is glacial.
There is a strategy at play here, and it's called lurk.
I am also of the opinion in two player scum teams generally there is a active/active enough teammate and one who opts to lurk. Expand that with two teams and you've got a solid explanation for why this game is extra slow soup.
The only bother is the number of town helping to occlude it.

can the three voters restate the case on him because I really don't think he's done anything scummy and I'd like a fresh take on why he's the best place for your vote

viewtopic.php?p=10406398#p10406398

[Thor665]

can you state your scumreads based on that reasoning? sounds like you're ruling out quite some teams with that

I don't rule out teams Day 1.
If I had scumreads I felt were remotely worth sharing I'd do so, I'm content with the three I've already offered. And considering I'm only offering two (and both of them pretty soft) town reads I really see little value in discussing who I'd be willing to lynch.

okay he addressed this self-case thing I think but whats your read on sesq, given the bolded that you said?

Sesq is basically a scum read with a slight "hurm" based on him deciding to panic push GL.
Generally I'm thinking he's a Mime right now. It explains a lot.

The downside is if Mafia decide to hunt for TPRs instead, but that can be dealt with by assigning the kills, and if Mafia do not shoot the proposed target then I'd be alright siding by the Mimes over them (it's like "I came to you first and you refused to cooperate, so it was your choice").

I rarely support no lynches - but let's at least be honest with ourselves that this is a laughable threat to try to leash Mafia with.
If you're endorsing a no lynch you have to recognize Mafia are going to shoot for a PR just as likely as they are to shoot for a Mime because both matter to them roughly equally at this stage. You also assuredly don't have my support in the idea of game throwing for the Mimes if Mafia on Night 1 shoots somewhere random.

[Thor665]

yeah it's feeling more and more like Sesq is more likely a mime with scum!FA_Q2 voting it

honestly I'm still fine with lynching the slot, if it's a Mime flip that's not the end of the world

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

@A50 - Sure.

@Lane - I'm amazed that there is difficulty getting a wagon on you.

[Thor665]

But honestly you can't be that amazed considering the quality of game being produced so far by most.

Considering the relative willingness most other wagons have felt for reasons that basically describe what you're doing - yeah, I'm a bit amazed.
Are you *not* noticing that? Like, you're amazed that Sesq has a wagon on him and is pushing a wagon on Guilty both of which can be described as 'meh, low content posting' while you sit there openly admitting you're low content posting with me being the only one bothered by your play?
Honestly?

I can't proceed until I find something that I think is concrete evidence of scum thinking. That is when I get aggressive, but I don't see it. I just don't see it. Why?

Considering that, if you're town, that there are two Mafia as well as two slots that should be actively trying to get you to scumread them...well, that just goes back to my reason for wanting to lynch you

[Thor665]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you here; how do Sesq's Mime status and FA_Q2's scum status connect in your mind?

They're both not showing me any evidence of being town

Sesq is aggressively playing scummy whereas FA_Q2 looks a lot more like he's trying to avoid the spotlight while sheeping onto the convenient wagon

It's not a connection between the two necessarily, it's just how I feel about assessing their slots and a possible explanation for the gamestate

What makes FA_Q2 stand out from the other lazy voters on the lazy wagon?
I mean, basically half the game is lazy votes, so why him over, say, Fink doubling down on an RVS position, or IV voting Sesq because Sesq gets reads when voted, or me sticking to cases I last described eight pages ago?

[Thor665]

I most certainly am noticing that. But what's not amazing to me, is people not jumping from a leading wagon to a non wagon for essentially the same case.

Yeah, but that they chose Sesq over you is a thing.

[Thor665]

Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.

It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?

I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?

[Thor665]

what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is).

Ah, fair enuff. Whats the case on Lane?

viewtopic.php?p=10406398#p10406398

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

I think the possibility I'm currently seeing is you're arguing the point from emptiness just to try to beat it down. Bringing up counterpoints youc can't support is not an interesting or pro-town conversation.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere.

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

It certainly is in size and support...for...some reason.

@Sesq

- hi, I think A50 is town and you're a Mime.
I'm stating Mjolnir intent on you.
Please claim.
I'm also willing to take non-presence as a scum claim, so keep that in mind.

[Thor665]

You think sesq is a mime but just stated hammer intent?

(I understand not worrying about the mimes until we actually lynch one, but still hammering someone you think is mime is weird

Considering I straight up said in the hammer intent post that I townread A50...

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

I think the possibility I'm currently seeing is you're arguing the point from emptiness just to try to beat it down. Bringing up counterpoints youc can't support is not an interesting or pro-town conversation.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere.

So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.

Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.

It certainly is in size and support...for...some reason.

@Sesq

- hi, I think A50 is town and you're a Mime.
I'm stating Mjolnir intent on you.
Please claim.
I'm also willing to take non-presence as a scum claim, so keep that in mind.

What's my counterpoint? I simply asked what is suspect, and you keep not answering it. Twice in fact. Now you're just throwing shade for no reason.

You're literally quoting posts that contain me explaining why I think it's scummy.
To restate it for the third time for you - I think running up one person for 'Case A' while ignoring another person that 'Case A' exemplifies is very questionable for both parties involved.

What *did* happen was you tried multiple times to try to handwave my suspicion by making up cases that *YOU* didn't back up.

I'm very happy there's wagon interest in you now though, so I can do this;

Vote: Lane

Feel free to quote me avoiding answering your questions.
I'll wait

[Thor665]

I most certainly am noticing that. But what's not amazing to me, is people not jumping from a leading wagon to a non wagon for essentially the same case.

Yeah, but that they chose Sesq over you is a thing.

Here's me "avoiding explaining my issue" to Lane.

[Thor665]

Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.

It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?

Here I am explaining it to Nero when he asked.
Gosh, I am working so hard to avoid explaining my thought here.

[Thor665]

@thor, why is it suspect that either A) people disagree with you or B) people agree that the case is equally strong as several others and don't see the point in starting a new wagon that is equally likely to flip scum?

Who is doing B?

Couldn't tell you. Is there another possibility of why people aren't following you? If you think it's exclusively that people disagree with you, why is that suspect?

Here's Lane hard dodging me questioning his defense of himself - for anyone not keeping track.

Lane then claimed that I'm not explaining my case and that he isn't trying to make a point against it?
Seriously now.

[Thor665]

@Jingle - That tell is as valid as saying 'people that agree with me are town and people that disagree are scum'.
It's a stance, sure, but I don't think it's less silly than the above.

[Thor665]

We do still have to come to a consensus over the three possibilities Watcher wise.

Watcher outs if they have useful information.
Watcher hypoclaim.
Watcher holds cards close to chest regardless and we pray for mafia to miss.

I oppose option three, personally and endorse option 2, but it is theoretically a valid course of action. Very high risk, possibly very high reward. If we commit to one of the courses, everyone needs to agree to abide by it.

The theory benefit of choosing option 2 over option 1 is that, if Mafia kill the Watcher we still get info if they have useful info.
The reality negative of option 2 over option 1 is it increases the ability of the Mafia to locate the Watcher regardless of the Watcher having useful info.
Wouldn't that make #1 the better option hands down? The only benefit requires the info to be useful to begin with, yeah?
What am I missing.

I'd advocate doing a faux vote where we can at least provide info on who we would lynch today if we were to lynch.

I'd probably be looking to lynch FA_Q today - I think lynching on the wagon makes immense sense and think any Vig and Mafia shots targeted at the wagon would benefit town.

[Thor665]

Got a good laugh out of that, sesq. Thank you.

Also good with a no lynch today as well. No one should out anything at this point.

What if I was a Watcher and had a result - why would you oppose outing that today exactly?

[Thor665]

If you read the sentences before that one wherein I state my intent to discuss who I would hypothetically lynch today then maybe you'd disagree with it less.
Considering I didn't vote...just saying, reading is tech

[Thor665]

I'd advocate doing a faux vote where we can at least provide info on who we would lynch today if we were to lynch.

I'd probably be looking to lynch FA_Q today - I think lynching on the wagon makes immense sense and think any Vig and Mafia shots targeted at the wagon would benefit town.

This was confusing?
You even had to cut out the first part of what you quoted because by including it you would have needed to reference why I was saying 'probably'.
Condescension holds methinks - it was either an intentional misrep or the fault is in you not reading properly.

[Thor665]

If you were able to lynch the mime safely who would you want to lynch?

[Thor665]

In hindsight, yeah, a single result on A50 is probably just immediately out, because trading the watcher for one of the scum is great for us.

Unless the scum are daft they shot for Mime - what makes you think A50 is the Mafia shot as opposed to Sesq?

Aside from the thing from yesterday, the fact that he thinks he'd be an NK target seems like a standard assumption that's easy to have as mafia. I think if he were as good as people seem to imply and he'd been trying to solve the game, he'd be thinking about things like A50 potentially being Vig and Thor being a more likely Mime candidate.

I would be confused by anyone thinking A50 is the Vig at this stage.

[Thor665]

I think thor's actions yesterday make him a prime candidate for the other mime.

Is there any reason for that outside of me scumreading a slot that was intentionally trying to be scumread and pointing it out?
If it's just 'Thor is on the wagon' yeah, I get the point, though singling me out seems awkward - but is there more to this case you're trying to sell here?
Because I don't think there is, and would challenge you to prove me wrong.

[Thor665]

I think thor's actions yesterday make him a prime candidate for the other mime.

Is there any reason for that outside of me scumreading a slot that was intentionally trying to be scumread and pointing it out?
If it's just 'Thor is on the wagon' yeah, I get the point, though singling me out seems awkward - but is there more to this case you're trying to sell here?
Because I don't think there is, and would challenge you to prove me wrong.

From the moment I replaced in you were shading me for keeping my vote on sesq when you wanted it on lane instead. The simple explanation of "I find sesq scummier even if you don't" wasn't good enough.

Your explanation was far weaker than that at the time since I asked 'why' and you responded with nothing - and I was shading you for the weak explanation and unwillingness to move, not specifically for where the vote was.
How is any of that not me scumhunting exactly?

[Thor665]

Frankly, as I recall, I was willing to get you onto DT too - is he my other Mime partner?

[Thor665]

If that case represents your best argument I'm fine with dropping it also.
It's pretty laughable.

[Thor665]

Dead thread is dead.

[Thor665]

How do you know I'm not dead?
Sounds like you have a kill power - mafia found.

[Thor665]

I'll expect my Scummie noms to start rolling in.

[Thor665]

I'm not really caught up, but Thor, do you think that case by Rocky makes him scummy or makes him just laughable?

I didn't really want to say till he had a chance to respond to me calling it laughable - that he doubled down on it reads as scummy to me.
Basically his case is 'Thor is scum more than other people voting Lane because Thor tried to get me onto Lane"
Which is all well and good as a theory case - except, as I pointed out in my defense, i also tried to get him onto DT.
He then counters it by quoting me doing *exactly what I said I did* but then handwaves it by pointing out that in debating him I used Lane as my example as opposed to DT as my example which...somehow means really I was clever Lane Mime partner, mwah-haha...?
It's really bad and shows blindness/not actually caring.
I think he's probably some value of scum for that play.
Do you read that interaction as town from him in any particular way? I'd have a hard time outside of arguing he's really blind and tunneled town for no reason, yeah?

So does anyone have any thoughts at all on what I'm saying about GL?

I would tend to pack it in very similar to my personal response towards IV and Eragorn for their non-responses as justified from who died.
I didn't like any of it, but I'm not sure it's a clear indication of scum mentality over the already apparent lazy mentality of this game state.

[Thor665]

I think thor's actions yesterday make him a prime candidate for the other mime.

Is there any reason for that outside of me scumreading a slot that was intentionally trying to be scumread and pointing it out?
If it's just 'Thor is on the wagon' yeah, I get the point, though singling me out seems awkward - but is there more to this case you're trying to sell here?
Because I don't think there is, and would challenge you to prove me wrong.

You were not simply on that wagon - it existed because of you. You were always willing to go back to it no matter what and constantly trying to get people to switch to lane who were on other wagons with the same reasoning that you applied to lane.

IOW, we had several posters that fit the same bill as lane as YOU were pointing out several times but you always preferred the lane wagon.

I am not disagreeing with any of this, nor is it what Rocky is advancing as his case.

[Thor665]

It's quite laughable that Thor thinks he was

actually

trying to get people to switch to DT yesterday.

You literally quoted me asking you to switch to DT.

[Thor665]

It's quite laughable that Thor thinks he was

actually

trying to get people to switch to DT yesterday.

You literally quoted me asking you to switch to DT.

You asked me once on page 8. You were trying to get everyone else on lane for the rest of the day.

If you think you were pressuring or pushing DT in any seriousness for a majority of your play yesterday, I don't know what to tell you.

Let's see, I attacked DT in;

Post 125
Post 173
Post 177
Post 181
Post 204 (where I bring DT up to you again as *you* keep discussing Lane to me)
Post 209
Post 244
Post 254 (though I'll agree it's a slant attack)
Post 276
Post 403 (it's Nero in the DT slot now)
In Post 467 some people make the Lane wagon viable and I move to Lane.

Now, I'm not going to say I wasn't pushing Lane.
But to act like I wasn't talking about the DT case and not trying to attack town reads on that slot and not asking for vote moves to it is a straight up lie.
Back up your lie with evidence please?

[Thor665]

How about you state your top three scumreads and a sentence why you suspect each of them.
I don't think i could do that right now if someone offered me $1000 to describe your stances.

[Thor665]

You're pointing out the point that Fink was making - that a net was being cast fairly ridiculously wide.

[Thor665]

Why is this Rocky laziness scummier than GL laziness? I think you're saying that it's manipulative and so more of a scum mindset, right? But why is GL not pinging you as manipulative?

I would counter that question with one of my own - describe the GL goal if his current manipulations.
Therein lies my answer, I don't see a goal beyond being lazy, which makes the best case on him one I can apply to a lot of the game. Is there meat to it? Maybe, sure. Is it unique enough to stand out to me - not so much.
Also, Rocky is intentionally twisting actual provable facts - which always feels more like scum to me than someone just apparently signing up for a game they don't care about.
How is Rocky not pinging you?

Like you put GL on the level of IV and Eragon and I don't get it.

I at least think IV is town.
Eragon is assuredly being as lazy and useless as GL - he couldn't even handle a 'describe your top scumspects' question.
But then there's also posts like this;

Jingle. Are you just not reading longer posts?

That can't be it, I owned up to it with a one liner.

This has been Jingle, reading along and seeing nothing worth calling out.

Hey, look, you and Jingle just discovered that the DL/Nero (I'm combining them so Rocky might notice) isn't doing gak and is being scummy.
Wow.
Shock.

I wish I was a Dayvig with five shots right now - we might not win the game, but at least we could trim down to the people playing it.

[Thor665]

I also wish we could somehow trim the playerlist by putting bullets into players who aren't obviously town. If only there was some way of doing that...

It's almost like my point was I wanted to do it faster than the slow grind we are getting to look forward to.

And I agree that Nero isn't really doing anything. I disagree that that is inherently scummy. Hell, in this particular set of circumstances, it might not even be antitown.

If he didn't waste time by attacking Fink over it I could see your point.
But since he did...what are you smoking?

I'm not sure why me missing/not understanding part of the game is causing such a big upset.

Yeah, you'd think they would have listened to me yesterday and saved time.
Maybe Rocky is right - I must have only had those thoughts in my head and am hallucinating them when I look at my posts

[Thor665]

Why are we no lynching wgen it is likely we can avoid a mime hit? We only increase the chances of it each day.

VOTE: Rocky

We're no lynching because a Mime lynch equates to a loss for Town and Mafia - and we can flip basically two people each night until we kill the last scum at which point we can start lynching again.

[Thor665]

It's almost like my point is that the way to make flips happen faster is to no lynch and look at the thread again after flips.

It's almost like that wouldn't be an issue if people were playing the game.

[Thor665]

I think I'm currently just going to tell Mafia and Vig to roll ruddy RNGs and shoot whoever the hell. Seriously now. (but, shoot on the wagon)

[Thor665]

Am I missing something? What does my statement in relation to rocky's case have to do with anything?

[/quote]
I thought you were trying to chime in to support it.
Quite frankly if you think the Lane wagon exists because of me and not someone else - I'm fine with that.
But you're objectively wrong, as any glance at the thread to see how the wagon formed would prove.

[Thor665]

So did mine hit the mafia or the vigi?

I think if the mime hit the vigi they should be claiming now, or else the vigi is basically a VT

If the vigi wasn’t roleblocked by the mime, and FA_Q was their kill, then stay silent

Vote: No lynch

[Thor665]

Why join in on this game if you believe that though? It's a pretty heavy night play game to begin with, compounded sharply if a Mime is lynched.

[Thor665]

There is nothing preventing scumhunting - only lynching.

[Thor665]

Mountainous is my favorite setup.
I agree with everything Nero said in 739 outside of the 'slightly' though

[Thor665]

There is nothing preventing scumhunting - only lynching.

Sure there is! If we scumhunt wothout lynching we either let scum guide the Vig or show our hands and get NK'd.

How are scum guiding the vig? The vig is guiding the vig.
If you're fine with the idea of lynching, I fail to see why you're scared to 'show your hand' without a lynch. Express scumreads if you want them to be considered, or stay quiet - but don't act like only a lynch would allow you to express reads.

[Thor665]

It all would have worked lovely for my Vig claim except Nero had to go and be the Vig. I weep sometimes.

[Thor665]

@Eragon - not sure claiming was optimal play for you though. You should have just crumbed. Theoretically town (and Mafia, for that matter) want to find the Mime and you were the optimal tool for that. I think you should have just hard crumbed on me. Mime can't afford to tell town if they find the Mafia (or clear town), and Mafia does want you dead.

[Thor665]

...

if I had tried to Lynch you without claiming what would've happened??

The point is, you shouldn't have tried to lynch me, and you should have kept hunting for the Mime. If you had left me alive until a Mime had been shot or you had died with a solid crumb on me what would have changed from what's going to happen after tonight besides potentially more info?

[Thor665]

@Mod - "fake" v/la for the rest of the game, but let's be honest, literally Eragon is the only player I'm going to interact with today until I'm dead, so if I go quiet for a while it's 100% strategic and I shouldn't be penalized for that. Besides, who would want to replace me at this point

V/LA noted

[Thor665]

@Mod - "fake" v/la for the rest of the game, but let's be honest, literally Eragon is the only player I'm going to interact with today until I'm dead, so if I go quiet for a while it's 100% strategic and I shouldn't be penalized for that. Besides, who would want to replace me at this point

who do you think is mime?

Someone other than you and I.

[Thor665]

To clarify the above - you are basically asking me to try to help locate 1 team I'm playing against in order to aid a second team I'm playing against, and in offering a legit read all I'd be doing for both teams I'm playing against is narrowing the potential pool to find the one team I'm playing for.

Now, I *could* answer your question tricksily - and include my scumbuddy in any theory Mime discussion, and trollololol. But I actually don't like playing scum because I don't like lying, so it's easier to just, y'know, not try to help the two teams I'm playing against?

I mean, basically my buddy already has my (doubtless brilliant) thoughts. And unless the Mime finds them and locks them down with roleblock (or we get to lylo) there is no world where we are lynching my partner before the Mime dies, so it's actually anti-wincon to me to help town locate a Mime, much less to be honest about it, y'dig?

[Thor665]

Hell, in a certain sense with my death, the Mafia should be trying to shoot town for a day or two, yeah?
As long as no one is lynching and we control the kill that's pretty baller for my faction.

[Thor665]

Well, currently it's 1v2v4
You'll lynch me - 1v1v4
Mafia will, yeah, shoot you because derp - 1v1v3 (unless Mime blocks mah partner, in which case it gets hilarious)
Then town has to no lynch and give Mafia another shot leaving you at;
1v3
or
1v1v2

In both cases town will probably no lynch again, leaving;

1v2
or
1v1v1

So, pretty much the game is set until lylo barring Mime roleblocking Mafia with town not getting any lynches.
Have fun with that

[Thor665]

At least if you get to 1v1v1 the Mime will without fail know who the Mafia is at that point unless they play really badly.
Oddly, at 1v1v1 basically town's best play is to just no lynch forever to try to force a three way draw, or to lynch Mafia and then no lynch forever to force a two way draw.
Hurm, mod may need to figure out his plan for that one.

[Thor665]

I don't fancy town's odds this game.
Literally looks like your best prayer is getting to 1v3 with the Mafia and then having a 33% chance to win.

[Thor665]

actually, if mime wants to win, they SHOULD be blocking the mafia

because if im not alive, then the mime wont be lynched because town wont be lynching for fear, and they have no good info to go off of

IF i am alive, i can try to find the mafia, and get them lynched, then its just up to the mime to get lynched, with getting lynched being the only way to die

Literally you can't find the last Mafia (since they'll be shooting you), all you can do is clear people from being Mime or Mafia - which neither Mime nor Mafia want to happen.
If Mime roleblocks tonight, Mime is being really silly and risky.
If Mime blocks the kill tonight and then roleblocks the Mafia again the next night - Mime is basically playing against their wincon aggressively at that stage.

Optimal Mime strategy tonight is to not target anyone and let you die.
If Mime knows for a fact who Mafia is - their optimal stratagy is to start blocking them the night after you die.
The only reason to block tonight is to try to accelerate learning who the Mafia is (which is helpful) but at the added potential risk you watch their target and call them out to the Mafia which would create a good potential chance for town to win - but creates a functional no win for the Mime and the Mafia.

So I'd advise Mime to no target, frankly.
Though I admit that does help the Mafia wincon, it is also the only real path to Mime wincon as well.

[Thor665]

I think as exposed Mafia I'm still going to have more content and posts today than most of the player set.
Almost makes me feel bad for the hand town was given in this game.
Almost

[Thor665]

I think I'm still more active than most of the playerbase.
Probably means you should all vote 'no vote' roll over, and let me win because I'm the only one who cares about the game.
Also I've got a sexy beard, I'm hard to resist.

[Thor665]

@Thor

Do you agree with that plan of action?
I feel it is the best way to confirm a win between either the mafia or the town, because if you kill me, there is no way you will find the mime until late game, and by then, it will be too late as your dead and then your partner will need to be king made over the mime.

If we no-lynch today, you take the kill, and I watch you, we absolutely confirm a non-mime win.

I've got no problem with that plan. It basically assures me of killing either a town or a Mime which benefits my wincon.

[Thor665]

Plus it will give me an extra day to keep my post count above Jingle's

[Thor665]

I made myself chocolate avocado pudding the other day, it was really excellent and had a very lovely texture as well. Wasn't expecting that.
Now if I could just figure out what I'm going to cook the fiancee' for dinner tonight...
I suppose I'll just see whatever's on sale.

[Thor665]

Sushi.

Sushi is always on sale

Sushi is one of my favorite things, though if I want to make it myself it generally helps to plan it out 24 hours in advance.
I should take her out for a nice sushi dinner date night again soon though. Maybe the weekend after my bachelor party...

I had a nice chicken Marsala that was pretty easy to make the other night.

I hit the store and am potentially making either chicken livers or braised pork belly. I'm going to let her decide.
That said, I've never made a chicken marsala, and though she's normally against sauces she does love mushrooms, so that sounds like an excellent backup plan.

I had a nice chicken Marsala that was pretty easy to make the other night.

I forgot to cover a pot of pasta I made the other day and it's made my noodles really hard. Gonna try reboiling them and seeing how that goes![/quote]
That initially sounded insane to me, but according to Google it's actually apparently a perfectly functional solution.
The suggestions seem to advise a fairly quick reboiling - I suppose there's still a chance of making it too mushy.

[Thor665]

Also we can have Thor kill targets we want

For example

@thor

Kill between (Fink/IV) tonight please
I'm leaving this open so you don't insta-confirm your buddy
If one of these doesn't die tonight we will probably lynch you

It's cute that you think you have that level of control over me.
How about I just shoot whoever I think is most likely Mime? I think that sounds good - town is narf to think it's pro-town to lynch me today as I already spelled out in the post some people are claiming wasn't true. I'm willing to bet it was true - just saying.

[Thor665]

i'll even weigh in and say that I don't support the idea of lynching anyone today.
But that's because it's in my best interest for my faction to control all deaths because we prevent Mime wincon, so I'm kinda anti-Mime in my theory.

[Thor665]

its cute that you think i couldnt lynch your ass right now if you wont help us

I fully believe you could - but it would be anti-town to do so.

ill even give you the third option of GL

so literally just dont shoot me/aristophanes and your fine

I agree not to shoot you if I'm alive come night.
You can decide to lynch me either now or then - but lynching me before the Mime is dead is signing your own death warrent and basically handing the game to the Mime or Mafia faction so, y'know, whatevs. I can't control who town lynches or doesn't today, all I can say is the likely result of any given action.

[Thor665]

I just don't want to pretend that you threatening to lynch me is an actual threat.
I'm going to be lynched this game barring some really brilliant *and* lucky play on my part, so a threat of lynching me is a :shrug: and let's not play act otherwise.

[Thor665]

The only way I don't get lynched is if I manage to get the game down to a;

Eragon/Thor/Thor's partner/Mime final four.
Which isn't very likely.

[Thor665]

Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game

Not sure I'm seeing the game quite like you are.
I stand by my previous statement - not gonna shoot you if I'm alive tonight.

[Thor665]

Oh goody, I have permission to do what I was going to do regardless

[Thor665]

If I'm lynched I promise the Mafia shot is on the Watcher.
Mostly because Mafia isn't dumb.

[Thor665]

Ah, look, town is giving up on getting to their wincon.

[Thor665]

I'm pretty sure the Mime will be voting me before the end of the game - Mime's wincon is aggressively advanced by getting me lynched.
Let's see if the town notices, Cotton.

[Thor665]

Yeah really nothing to say while waiting on Eragon to give last reads/any night results. We should definitely wait for that.

Methinks if there were night results he'd have offered them already, yeah?

[Thor665]

Town is so gonna win this, I see all the brilliant plans coming together in a way that *totally* stops Mime wincon

[Thor665]

Same goes for everyone actually

(Thor is excused :3)

I’m probably gonna sleep then come back tommorow

Wheeeeeee!

[Thor665]

if we Lynch today, and hit town, then we lose
IF we Lynch today, and hit mime, we lose, and so does mafia
If we Lynch today, and hit mafia, we win.

we are at 3 v 2 v 1, so we've already basically lost majority

a nolynch provides the least risk, and lets maf have more chance to kill mime
a Lynch is risky, but probably the only way we can win

If I was to try to be totally honest - for town I would suggest the best play is actually to lynch someone who isn't me or Eragon, that would be a 1/4 chance to lose, a 1/4 chance to guarantee win, and a 2/4 chance to end up in a similar situation to a no lynch.
The best play for Mime is to lynch me today (Mime functionally cannot win without me dead).
The best play for Mafia is for no one to be lynched today (this also *might* be the best play for town, or at least a slightly safer way).

People should probably vote accordingly.
I'm assuredly plotting kills based around these thoughts.

[Thor665]

Thor shoots eragon because shooting anyone else might give town the majority.

Nah, in that scenario I'd need Eragon alive in order to maximize my wincon.
Shooting him would assure my faction's loss.

[Thor665]

That said, the issue with lynching my buddy today is that the Mime's best play becomes blocking me even with Eragon alive and forcing the draw.

[Thor665]

Yeah, town's best chance still looks like leave me alive (which prevents Mime from blocking me) and pray I shoot Mime tonight.
If I don't town's best chance is a draw.
if I do then town gets to lynch me and play for the win versus my partner.

I still am looking at it and seeing lynching me today increases Mime wincon, but decreases town wincon.

[Thor665]

No - if you don't lynch anyone and I shoot Mime, you lynch me, my partner shoots town and then it's 3p lylo - which is literally the best town can hope for.
Every other option is town losing or town getting a tie unless you lynch my partner today.

Regardless, lynching me is not pro-town play.

[Thor665]

Though, I'll admit I keep forgetting this, lynching my partner today actually just gets town into a 3v1v1 where Mime will always block me and I'll always be shooting at 'not Eragon' which will end in a tie. So, yeah, the gamble for lynching my partner ends in an assured tie if you hit him, Mime win if you hit Mime, or Mime/Mafia win depending on the result of my shot and the lynch tomorrow.

I think for town to win you have to both not lynch anyone, and pray I manage to shoot Mime tonight.
Everything else appears to be a tie or worse for town.

[Thor665]

VOTE: No-lynch

I think that's a smart play for town, even if it's still derp risky.

If you had the ability to control the scum shot - who would you shoot as your top Mime suspect?

[Thor665]

Frankly, all the remaining living players should probably be stating that regardless.
Kind of sad the Mafia is having to think of it. C'mon guys, I'm playing more pro-town than everyone but Eragon.

[Thor665]

Probably going to need to read them again.
Sorry I can't magically add you to my wincon if I hit town tonight.

[Thor665]

Yeah, a Day 1 Mime lynch is pretty much a recipe to break this setup.
The Watcher trying to fly under the radar is at least justified play, and reads will be what reads are.
Yeah, if you'd pegged me a Day earlier it would have made the game a lot more interesting. I'm lucky it went down right when we zapped the Vig or I couldn't be dancing the dance I'm doing now.

[Thor665]

Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw.

I need Eragon alive to help me catch Mime - my path to victory is shoot Mime (or be blocked by Mime and shoot him eventually), after Mime death i get lynched, then (and only then) have my partner shoot Eragon, and then win via lylo.
Please make sure you understand that.

[Thor665]

The only world where Mafia shoots Eragon is a world after I get lynched.

[Thor665]

Because, y'know, as long as I'm alive Eragon's power *literally has no negative to my team since I'm already outted and can always make the kill*.

[Thor665]

Point. I'm not sure why, but I was thinking there was some utility in killing the watcher then the mime for a minute there. Still irrelevant to: Lynching thor means the mime has to use their power in the way both most likely to out them to town AND most likely to give town the advantage, while not lynching makes mafia the single faction most likely to win the game, despite there still being a large chance of a forced HEA.

You keep saying things, I'mma think you're not as good at math as you keep saying and are suggesting some rather oddball interpretations of optimal play for the various factions.

I'll agree that lynching me frees up the Mime to use their power.
I fail to see how that remotely helps town wincon compared to lynching me tomorrow whether I hit Mime or town.

[Thor665]

The optimal outcome for town is to end up in 3v2 with a dead Mime and a caught scum.
But, yeah, I'm sure you know math better than I.

[Thor665]

Oh, also, statistically my magical best outcome is vastly more likely to happen than your pipe dream outcome.

[Thor665]

I'll agree there is a "chance".
You're ignoring the actual likelihood of those assorted chances though.
I'm right.

[Thor665]

The odds for my 3v2 situation happening are actually about 16%
Your theory best happening is about 8%

it's not a matter of chance to win at the state - it's chance that the state happens.

[Thor665]

So, for the slow - my plan results in a town victory twice as often as Jingle's plan.

[Thor665]

Feels like I should shoot whoever of Fink/Jingle isn't my partner though, because that does look like votes for Mime wincon increase.

[Thor665]

Explain where you get the 25% win chance for town with no outed Mime in 3v1v1 and I'll accept that you know what you're talking about.

[Thor665]

Lynch Mafia: 25%

Town

Mime win.
Lynch Mime: 25% Mime win.
Lynch Town (x2): 50% Night phase: 2v1v1. Assumed HEA.

FTFY
Your math is ridiculously full of errors.
I stand by my original statement.

[Thor665]

I didn't realize that - that increases town's wincon in my version though.

[Thor665]

Frankly I'm amazed I'm still alive.

[Thor665]

Yeah, guess Mime can just target whichever of IV or GL they aren't and town can play for the tie.
Excitement galore.

[Thor665]

VOTE: No Lynch

Definitely *my* best wincon

[Thor665]

That's an interesting theory.

[Thor665]

The way a majority played the game for town was game throwing also

[Thor665]

Mafia shoots Watcher upon my lynch, pretty sure I explained that.

[Thor665]

I agree that my death generally leads to happily ever after.

[Thor665]

Wasn't aware I was arguing otherwise?
I mean, if town fully sheeps open claimed Mafia that's on town.

[Thor665]

My point was, Mafia failing to kill Watcher hands the game to town.
Ergo...

[Thor665]

Now you're just saying that you don't enjoy playing with us

[Thor665]

Mime's just scared to toss on a vote methinks.

[Thor665]

I watch everyone regardless of if they kill me.

[Thor665]

I stand by my strategy as dominant, despite it being unfun. I would like to point out that town very nearly won by following it, despite pretty much the worst possible outcome D1. Sorry if I made the game less enjoyable for anyone.

The issue with the strategy (though I agree after a Mime lynch Day 1 it was probably the best move town had available) is it required the hail Mary of a Watcher catching Mafia or Mafia/Vig shooting Mime *early* to really buy a town win back.
After a certain point it was just playing to avoid losing which is different from playing to win.
If Eragon hadn't caught me I submit this game would have been a very easy Mafia win.
Though I do think Mime and Mafia were aided by a distressingly large amount of the playerbase not bothering to look townish.

[Thor665]

In a vacuum, vig is more likely to hit mafia than mafia is to hit vig. Also, if either group hits mime before watcher, town is suddenly WAAAAAAY out ahead in the race.

Though as an addendum, Watcher is more likely to be shot than scum.
I'll agree that if GL had been shot before one of the town PRs it would have been a better situation for town.

[Thor665]

Watcher is equally likely to be shot as mime, in fact.

Yup, and more likely than Mafia.