Open 737: Stack the Deck (Game Over)

[ofrhz]

VOTE COUNT 3.14

Alonzo (0):

Performer (0):

ruru (0):

BuJaber (3):

Irrelephant11, skitter30, Alonzo

(L-2)

Enigma (1):

BuJaber

Irrelephant11 (0):

skitter30 (1):

Performer

Korina (0):

No Kill (0):

Not Voting (3):

Enigma, Korina, ruru

With

8

alive, it takes

5

to kill.
Day 3 ends in (expired on 2018-10-16 07:30:00)

Other:

- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays

[Korina]

@Preformer Tbf, Skitter and I were TRing Enigma earlier on.
I'll post more substancial things later.

[skitter30]

This series of posts is strikingly like scum agenda. Hard defends enigma, uses the same easy-go-to reason to tr me too (tonally). Wanted tw/me, alonzo, buj, irrel dead at various points of ISO. The posts plain point to that - scum agenda. And what do you know, the ones she wants dead are alive (except for GE), and she’s jumped at the opportunity to kill buj.

Compared to enigma’s ISO, buj is townier. Skitter interactions regarding and with enigma & buj, are bizarre too. Something I’ve been contemplating is why would scum buj vote enigma after I reanalyzed enigma’s scummy ISO with a strong push – that doesn’t make sense given the way buj has posted about enigma on other days. I think it’s enigma & skitter.
enigma said At this stage for scum:
Elephant prime candidate. Alonzo/Buj solid maybes.

Korina – buj & irrel, skitter – buj & who else??, buj – irrel & I if not enigma (I don’t think scum would be this bold to be stating sr on irrel & I of all people since irrel & his predec ejinami have been quite town in their interactions…in fact I think he’s saying this because he had me as a 3rd possibility largely due to my predec tw and irrel’s big case on buj).

After a bit of rereading ISOs, I find it very interesting that korina, skitter, and enigma don't sr one another strongly . In fact, I’ve seen multiple times they tr each other while being ok with other people being lynched.

a) not entirely sure why most of these things are independantly scummy (besides for you reading the two of us as scum pre-flip and seeing associatives)

b) i feel like if i was scum with enigma (and knew he was scum) i would have bussed him for the cred a while ago already (although after seeing how i'm being read after hard-defending him eh maybe i wouldn't. i don't think i could be this stubborn about not-lynching him if i was scumw ith him tho)

c) i'm literally never getting lynched today; i think you'd have more luck pushing enigma tbh

d) "Something I’ve been contemplating is why would scum buj vote enigma after I reanalyzed enigma’s scummy ISO with a strong push – that doesn’t make sense given the way buj has posted about enigma on other days."

why wouldn't scum vote there?

[skitter30]

Those quotes further my case posted.

i think 1133 makes a lot of sense coming from him immediately after that game ended (it was posted hours after that game was declared to be over and after he watched me in the dead pt for like a month and a half)

[skitter30]

@skitter maybe I should have said “what are the odds BuJ PR claims at L-1?”
Probably not very high either way so meh

Agreed that Enigma might be scum, but proooobably not with Enigma based on how oddly and regularly she’s defending him? At least based on the fact that she’s apparently great at scum

@anyone who has me in their scum pile (skitter, BuJ, idk who else) can you please summarize the case? Even if it’s on my preds, I’d like to know what about their play was scummy

i wouldn't defend anyone if i thought it would be put me in a bad spot after they flipped as scum; i'm very good at reading gamestates and tabulating everyone's reads and figuring out what i need to do/say when in order to get the effect that i want (and to get the effect taht i want down the road); like i can capitalize on a bussing vote and make it look very natural and non-bussing-y for a month down the road when peope look back and do vca; i know who my audience is and i track what they think and can cater to that appropriately;

as town idk what they'll flip so i just post what i think

i think ejji's vote on nm was a bussing vote; like he was trying to get on wagon

frank was bad; look at 646 and read the next few pages to get a feel for why i didn't like him

[BuJaber]

@Preformer Tbf, Skitter and I were TRing Enigma earlier on.
I'll post more substancial things later.

Do you still TR him? If so could you give a case on him now giving all we know and the role claims?

[Performer]

Ok, based on skitter scum play I saw in another game with ofrhz and ruru and buj and enigma , ruru's account of skitter town meta, and the reactions, I'm going to go back to enigma. That catchup is simply ridiculous.

I'm finding it hard to believe irrel and buj are scum.

VOTE: enigma

[Enigma]

I was just thinking if we lynch scum today, we will mechanically win this. Assuming Alonzo and ruru are not lying, we have a lynch pool of six today. Alzono lives another day, assuming ruru actives bp tonight. Alzono can hard clear two slots before he is killed if there is only one scum remaining. In that case, we mechanically win even if we mislynch the next day.

Spoiler: if we lynch correctly today

town:scum ratio
6-1 (2 conf town) lynch scum
5-1 (2 conf town) nk ruru, alonzo confs 1 town
4-1 (2 conf town) mislynch
3-1 (2 conf town) nk alonzo, alzono can confs 1 town even if he dies by telling us who he is targeting
2-1 (2 conf town) gg scum, town wins

If we mislynch today, we should no lynch tomorrow as it is mylo. But this still means Alzono gets two shots at rbing, with a successful hit preventing the NK and getting a hard guilty.

[Enigma]

Catch up not over - I went and got drunk last night so I'm still on pg 106 somewhere and am planning on catching up more tonight.

[Performer]

Deadline is less than 48 hours away and you're talking about hypotheticals in an iioa way, as well as not even having caught up. What kind of mindset is this? Definitely doesn't strike me as town. doesn't sound like any sense of urgency.

[Korina]

@Preformer Tbf, Skitter and I were TRing Enigma earlier on.
I'll post more substancial things later.

Do you still TR him? If so could you give a case on him now giving all we know and the role claims?

"...were TRing Enigma earlier on."

I'm not. Enigma has sorta slipped under the radar for me, and just hasn't seemed to be that interested in solving atm.
Some of their posts have been alright, but, combined with (now) constant stalling, I don't really see Enigma flipping town.

[skitter30]

I'll lynch enigma if i absolutely have to at deadline (didnt realize it was two days from now) to make a lynch happen, but i dont think he's flipping scum tbh

I would much much prefer bujaber

[ruru]

rb guilties should be taken with a grain of salt (especially if the target is claimed in advance)

rb innos are the useful result

[ruru]

After a bit of rereading ISOs, I find it very interesting that korina, skitter, and enigma don't sr one another strongly . In fact, I’ve seen multiple times they tr each other while being ok with other people being lynched.

what does this mean to you?

[ruru]

also @performer I'm interested in who you think is the enigma partner because lynching alonzo's semi-inno today is questionable at best

[Enigma]

Why would you suspect there would be an investigative to protect? What if there wasn't??

I consider dying for creature negative utility, period, because I don't get mislynched either and he wasn't playing the game

it's not about saving my bg ability it's about not dying for a player who isn't doing anything.

Reading through pg109 I just want to comment that I see reason in ruru's targeting. Like creature wasn't being a particularly useful TPR, the conf!town is not so useful early game with there is a larger number of unknowns. Plus creature didn't die N1 so probs indicative of how scum saw him as a threat/useful.

On that thought chain, creature's scum reads EOD1 were:

leaves Almost50, Gamma, ejji and NotMafia

A50 town
GE town
NM scum
Ejj/elephant ??

Actually gives elephant +town a bit from that now.

[Enigma]

Also just thought of something - if alonzo is telling the truth, that means enigma is cleared. 1 scum died already, the only other 1 who can do an nk already did one on n2....so alonzo blocking enigma = enig town.

I think it also makes sense if alonzo was fake claiming & was actually traitor, then his rb on enigma on n2 would've made sense as scum fake claim? So in that case, enigma is scum and alonzo = traitor? Because looking at enigma's ISO alone - you can say I'm insane but I'm an old school/traditional town player - his ISO is still very suspicious .

Alonzo flew from not changing his stance on enigma being scum, to tw/ruru, to bujaber.
Something isn't right here.

This doesn't clear me btw (if Alonzo isn't fake claiming). Plus Alzono fake claiming doesn't make sense - it has essentially signed his death warrant if he doesn't get NKd and he was not under pressure to claim since he wasn't in today's lynch pool and I don't really expect him to be the player who has made such a gambit.

I actually started to TR your slot a bit earlier, but considering how you (and your predecessor) are training me so much when it is quite vital for scum to drive a mislynch today makes me retract that read.

[Enigma]

VOTE COUNT 1.28

Almost50 (0):

HeWhoSwims (1):

Almost50

the worst (1):

Not_Mafia

ruru (0):

BuJaber (0):

Not_Mafia (7):

the worst, ruru, skitter30, Vex Vience, Creature, Enigma, ejjinami

LYNCH

Enigma (0):

ejjinami (0):

Creature (0):

Gamma Emerald (2):

HeWhoSwims, BuJaber

skitter30 (0):

Vex Vience (0):

Not Voting (1):

Gamma Emerald

With

12

alive, it takes

7

to lynch.
Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-09-14 16:30:00)

Other

:
- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- HeWhoSwims still needs to be replaced

If we look at d1 vc, the only person still alive who didn't vote nm, is bujaber.
Looking at who's on the wagon, it doesn't make sense for enigma to be doing L-1 to a partner on d1....while eji is now irrel. I can't see it making sense for irrel to hammer a partner on d1 either unless really necessary.
So maybe it's 1 or both of skitter/Korina in the middle of the wagon??
Maybe scum wanted to cut their losses so they distanced via bussing - but I don't see how both partners would've been on nm to bus him on d1.

VOTE COUNT 2.13

Alonzo (0):

the worst (2):

Enigma, Alonzo

ruru (0):

BuJaber (0):

Enigma (2):

Irrelephant11, Gamma Emerald

Irrelephant11 (0):

Creature (0):

Gamma Emerald (6):

Creature, skitter30, ruru, Korina, BuJaber, the worst

HAMMER

skitter30 (0):

Korina (0):

Not Voting (0):

With

10

alive, it takes

6

to kill.
Day 2 ends in (expired on 2018-10-02 10:30:00)

Other:

- skitter30 V/LA Fridays and Saturdays
- BuJaber V/LA through Sunday
- Korina V/LA through Monday
- skitter30 V/LA through Tuesday
- Were you all impressed with how quickly I locked the game thread?

For d2 end of day vc, enig was getting enough heat for irrel & GE to voted him - not only that, but alonzo felt he was suspect enough to rb him. It's not outlandish to think that enigma perhaps realized that he was being suspected a lot and (if they have a 3rd goon) wanted his other living partner to do the nk on n2, on creature. This way alonzo would get a false clear on enigma.
What else I noticed was buj, skitter, korina - all claimed vts and all voted GE for d2 lynch, quite safely in middle of the wagon. What's worrisome is that GE a veteran player, thought someone else was scummier than any of the 6 on his wagon... wth?

I'm not sure if this is a tunnelling mentality or scum driving a mislynch.

Also, you could say this about your slot being scum:
D1 - duck bussed NM (a useless slot) for town credit
D2 - duck's hammer was terrible

[ruru]

enigma what do you think of tw's replace

[Enigma]

@ele: let's see...
Possible scum teams:

If enigma flips town:
- ruru + you
- ruru + alonzo
- you + alonzo
And by PoE performer with any of {you, ruru, alonzo}
If enigma flips town then ruru dies at night (pretty much confirms alonzo town):
- you + performer

If enigma flips scum:
- you
- ruru
- performer
And alonzo by PoE
If enigma flips scum and ruru dies at night:
- you
- performer


Without getting two mislynches in a row I'm not considering korina.. pretty confident TR there. And skitter is just town.

-1
(Also, this makes me rule out elephant BuJ based on how badly this post has turned out)
One more also, you don't consider the dimension of traitor recruited/not recruited which is key to understanding pairings - kinda feels faked bc of that.

- ruru + alonzo

this is probably a bit indicative of faked reads

+1

I think me not being included in that analysis is indicative of his read on me being faked (ie this is an example of abnormally strong reads, that he's considering you/alonzo as being more likely than me being scum at all)

+1

[Enigma]

Still waiting on enigma replies, he's lurked hard today. Mod can we get deadline extension or deadline pause until a replacement?

FYI I've been on 11 flights and 3 continents in the past 2.5 weeks for work. Like sorry for lack of posting, but really NAI and would have been the case regardless of my alignment.

[Enigma]

Enigma upon your return - I want to see reads list and your thoughts on what's transpired.

Probably you and BuJ
Lots of things here and there, but also the training on me (when scum need a mislynch) probably adds to it after reading the past few pages

[Enigma]

Enigma upon your return - I want to see reads list and your thoughts on what's transpired.

Probably you and BuJ
Lots of things here and there, but also the training on me (when scum need a mislynch) probably adds to it after reading the past few pages

enigma what do you think of tw's replace

I actually thought it was townie when it first happened, and I think I commented as such. But then I saw he replaced out of all his games not just this one (mini 2036 and another game where he was a hydra), and I don't know if the "I'm out af" is a ragequit or just I cbf exchanging with ruru right now.... so NAI I suppose?

[Enigma]

I didn't realise deadline so soon, so pls any other questions. Otherwise, happy to vote BuJ as I do scumread him a bit and I don't think a performer wagon will happen today

[Enigma]

^though it seems ill be around for at least a few more game days as no way im going to get NKd now...