Open 735: Watchmen Wanted - Game Over!


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Post Post #2500 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:07 pm

Post by Toranaga »

I skimmed through volxen but there isn't really anything he says about either Kop or irrelephant. his interactions late d1 with irrelephant, coming from both sides, point strongly to volxen not being scum with irrelephant. irrelephant seems interested in volxen's alignment and open minded to the things volxen is saying, while volxen seems to be legitimately trying to get irrelephant to townread him. also fair to note, irrelephant was the one in the thread asking volxen to claim. there's more from irrelephant side, but just reading volxen's ISO you can already see the unlikelihood of him being scum with irrelephant.
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Post Post #2501 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:11 pm

Post by Toranaga »

something odd I noticed:
Spoiler:
In post 288, volxen wrote:Welcome, The Worst. Long time no see... :P
In post 352, volxen wrote:
In post 350, Huntress wrote:Hi everyone!

Starting to read through now.
Welcome, Huntress.
In post 383, volxen wrote:
In post 381, Eragon wrote:Aye this playerlist is lit AF.

That’s literally the reason I joined even though schools starting.

Driving home from the airport, so will maybe do stuff later
(Or just meme with teh wurst and tora)
Welcome, Eragon.
In post 385, Dunnstral wrote:tinfoil theory: Eragon is scum and his partner(s) felt the need to welcome him in thread to try to seem like they're not talking in pt

Not a serious theory jsut something to consider I guess


I don't know if that's coincidental but the only possibly SvS "welcome" post by volxen was the one dunnstral decided to put a tinfoil hat on.
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Post Post #2502 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:14 pm

Post by Toranaga »

I'm not gonna read the whole game or irrel/eragon ISO's, so this is my final work in this game. scum spew points to eragon being scum in my interpretation. I'm not moving my vote so if I'm wrong I'm wrong.
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Post Post #2503 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:23 pm

Post by Toranaga »

you know what, I owe it to you guys. lemme start by ISOing irrel cause it's shorter.
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Post Post #2504 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:39 pm

Post by Flicker »

Votecount 5.04

Eragon (1)
- Toranaga

Not voting: Eragon, Irrelephant11, Nauci

The deadline for Day 5 is 11:54 am CT on Thursday, October 25, in (expired on 2018-10-25 12:54:10).
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Post Post #2505 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:03 pm

Post by Toranaga »

Impressions through ISOing irrelephant:

I like the way he is pushing keyser around #5 in his ISO. Irrelephant is trying to figure out if keyser knew what hypoclaiming was before post #13 in the game, which by the looks on how that conversation progressed, keyser didn't. #12 is a pretty good early suspicion on dunn. In fact the whole progression on dunn is very towny of irrel, both in general and in a circumstance where dunnstral is actually scum which is the case.

1) Irrel is casing dunn before it's cool to do so
Spoiler:
In post 73, Keyser Söze wrote:I merely acknowledged and thanked him for his recommendations (to basically only claim if you have a guilty). This sentiment was echoed by a couple others.

I did not want to chat about all his formulas, that’s not mafia to me.
In post 74, Irrelephant11 wrote:Yeah that's fair
I'm pretty much over it as much as you are
Talk to me about Dunnstral
In post 75, Keyser Söze wrote:Can remember playing with him (he was town I was scum I believe) and he obliterated me. Could be on MS or other mafia website. Super quiet start so far from him... he hasn’t ‘arrived’ yet.. I thought town him would take lead today.
In post 78, Keyser Söze wrote:
In post 74, Irrelephant11 wrote:Yeah that's fair
I'm pretty much over it as much as you are
Talk to me about Dunnstral
Was your vote for him not RVS? Didn’t realise there could be more meat to it? Guy’s only made one post
In post 79, Irrelephant11 wrote:No my vote was RVS but I can't decide how to feel about his one post being a response to Burger's game theory stuff. He didn't participate in RVS, or correct Burger on the definition of hypoclaiming, or suggest anything was AI

It's the lack of content from a player that has shown up that I find interesting


points at irrelephant being town in no uncertain manner, doesn't it? not only as he is swaying his attention from keyser to dunn as a potential scumread, but he is bringing town!keyser into this conversation about dunn and then giving a very reasonable, nuanced explanation on why dunn's start is possibly scummy. this is really good.

and then... this actually gets kinda worrysome. oh my.

so.

all this talk about dunn being maybe scum because of one post, but he doesn't re-vote dunn and then rather inexplicably says:
In post 195, Irrelephant11 wrote:Dunnstral is town
Toranaga is town but I believe in your ability to step it up
Agree that Volxen might be a scum too
and this boring ISO just became kinda spicy. alright. there's nothing before this post that even indicates irrelephant is townreading dunn, so I'm sure he'll get to explaining it later on. and there's nothing on volxen, but now "he might be a scum too", which is fucking weirdly phrased enough that I think it's a SHROOP, and ALARMBELLS.JPG to a guy who is shrooping in a sentence about a scum player being scum.

but then his other posts are pretty good. slots of small towny things but I like him bugged about GNB in #34 of his ISO, and I think it's very pertinent to be worried about that post GNB asks him if he is "distancing" from GNB. it really is odd. #35 is a good conclusion to metadiving sesq, as I did the same and concluded the same, so it shows he is doing some real work.

#38 is long and I might have a lot to parse through so I'm stopping this now and continuing later.
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Post Post #2506 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:37 pm

Post by Eragon »

In post 2497, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 2496, Irrelephant11 wrote:
Eragon
Reasons to Scumread:
> Dunnstral and volxen both treated him consistently with the way they treated each other
---> Dunnstral soft defended both him and volxen d1 and was otherwise pretty quiet (sidenote: dunnstral did this for tor D2)
---> volxen ignored both the dunnstral and kop/eragon slots entirely
> lolposting as late into the game as last game day. Post count probably decreases dramatically if you remove every joke-y post
> Very careful with his votes
> Kop and Eragon both got prodded before this game day, unlike Tor

Reasons to townread:
> Always felt pretty reasonable
> Townread Kop

Toranaga
Reasons to scumread:
> Flip-flopped on Dunnstral D2 in an opportunistic way
> Scumread Poseidon
> NSG thought Tor was scum, and it's NSG
> Ausuka was really sure of it too for all of d2 (sidenote: was also willing to vote Eragon by EOD2)
> is pretty scummy after starting that game day with "irdk who it is"
> is also pretty scummy on its own
> Huntress kill makes more sense as a Toranaga/dunn team kill than an eragon/dunn team kill

Reasons to townread:
> volxen and Toranaga wanted each other dead before it was certain either of them would get a wagon
> Toranaga shifted wagon movement onto volxen near EOD
> Highest post count in the game for a player which a meta skim says post count is AI
>
>Swung his votes wherever his reads moved
> is towny in retrospect, given he was either protecting *only himself* (not Dunnstral) or was accurately aiming at *both scum*

Question marks????
> , votes dunnstral after Ausuka and Keyser already had done so with the caption "scummy posting imo"
> Started this game day with "I think it's Nauci"


@Nauci quote and add things until we have all the puzzle pieces filled in
1. volxen only made 1-2 posts after i replaced in, so i dont think you can get much "treatment" from those
2. i do see a bit of the soft defense for kop, but for the same reason i see the reasons? if i saw someone being called out for something with commas, i would A) laugh; B) laugh; C)chainsaw/defend them as any alignment.
3. kop had about 14 ?content? posts and volxen only made 2 posts(or something small like that) after i replaced in so again i dont think that you can get "entirely ignored" that slot from that.
4. lol-posting is NAI. in Micro 827(granted i was scum) NSG called me out for lol-posting and i got super tilted and pretty much quit on the game because it was so retarded. I play FM to have fun, be happy, do cool things, and hopefully lynch scum. Im not super serious or uptight like some people, i like to post gifs/memes/cute pictures and p.much anyone who legit scumreads me for that should stop playing FM/makes me want to punch them.
5. i am normally careful with votes, i view votes as a weapon not a tool.
6. Life sux m8. i get prodded as town too.
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Post Post #2507 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:39 pm

Post by Eragon »

In post 2480, Nauci wrote:
In post 2477, Toranaga wrote:so you guys do the reading, I'll sit back and enjoy not having to do that

:sunglasses:
So you both lock town Irrelephant11? Why?
im pretty sure ive explained that if irrelphant is actually scum, they deserve the win for playing perfectly, and without suspicion, and also i just have townread 85% of their posts, and those 15% that i dont are because i either didnt read them or didnt think about them.
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Post Post #2508 (ISO) » Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:40 pm

Post by Eragon »

In post 2487, Nauci wrote:Sorry I'm like ultra busy right now will post tomorrow

I want to see Eragon and Tora actually case each other instead of POE :p
ill do it tommorow if i have time on the bus, i only have a few minutes rn, so no time
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Post Post #2509 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:48 am

Post by Nauci »

I'm leaning eragon thus far

Oddly enough I think Tora being paranoid I'm scum was rather town
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Post Post #2510 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:50 am

Post by Nauci »

Irrelephant, what did you think about Dunnstral's treatment of NSG when she was talking about Kop's posts having an odd cadence? Potential chainsawing?
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Post Post #2511 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:09 am

Post by Eragon »

In post 2509, Nauci wrote:I'm leaning eragon thus far

Oddly enough I think Tora being paranoid I'm scum was rather town
i mean, once you were confirmed watcher its not really good to SR you, and by the time i got back to the thread the only 2 people to claim were us, meaning you were confirmed watcher already.

if you werent confirmed watcher i probably would have been suspicious as well.

Tora conf!towned you after you were confirmed watcher as well.


i dont think that is AI at all.
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Post Post #2512 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 3:11 am

Post by Eragon »

In post 2510, Nauci wrote:Irrelephant, what did you think about Dunnstral's treatment of NSG when she was talking about Kop's posts having an odd cadence? Potential chainsawing?
i gave a response to it, already, but why not again?

i do see the defense, and i can see where you are coming with the read, but what i also know is that i would have done the same exact thing as town or scum, because it was stupid. I find anything being pushed about semantics or how you say it is normally being pushed by scum or really bad town. I would have defended kop just the same if i felt that NSG was kinda thinking that kop was scum based on commas or some shit.
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Post Post #2513 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:42 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

In post 2509, Nauci wrote:I'm leaning eragon thus far

Oddly enough I think Tora being paranoid I'm scum was rather town
I had the same feeling
But when I think about it more deeply it's like

Scum!tora wanted to kill the person least likely to get watched
In killing Reundo, he probably thought you were least likely to be watcher, because you were the only one who would watch him
Therefore his calling you out as scum might have just been him saying "oh Irrelephant isn't the watcher? Then it's eragon, and nauci is scum"

But there's some assumptions in there so idk
In post 2510, Nauci wrote:Irrelephant, what did you think about Dunnstral's treatment of NSG when she was talking about Kop's posts having an odd cadence? Potential chainsawing?
I mean it might be
lol for so long I WIFOM'd myself into thinking it'd be too obvious to be chainsawing
But that might be why eragon is here

I think the fact that eragon was treated similarly by dunnstral/volxen as they treated each other is pretty damning overall, though
Like if this game were just D1 I would 100% lynch eragon over toranaga, actually
I keep trying to think of magical new perspectives to have to figure this out
Like "which of them would be more likely to watcher!read Reundo??" or "Can I glean their alignment from the consistency of their reads" but whoever is scum seems to have covered a lot of bases
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Post Post #2514 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:40 pm

Post by Nauci »

I think the reundo kill was the same as the ausuka kill: least likely to be watched because most likely to be mislynched. I think it shows that the last scum definitely had no idea who was likely to be the watcher, personally.
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Post Post #2515 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:41 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 2512, Eragon wrote:
In post 2510, Nauci wrote:Irrelephant, what did you think about Dunnstral's treatment of NSG when she was talking about Kop's posts having an odd cadence? Potential chainsawing?
i gave a response to it, already, but why not again?

i do see the defense, and i can see where you are coming with the read, but what i also know is that i would have done the same exact thing as town or scum, because it was stupid. I find anything being pushed about semantics or how you say it is normally being pushed by scum or really bad town. I would have defended kop just the same if i felt that NSG was kinda thinking that kop was scum based on commas or some shit.
But making it about commas is specifically a misrep that is the reason it really became a point of discussion
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Post Post #2516 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:43 pm

Post by Nauci »

In post 2511, Eragon wrote:
In post 2509, Nauci wrote:I'm leaning eragon thus far

Oddly enough I think Tora being paranoid I'm scum was rather town
i mean, once you were confirmed watcher its not really good to SR you, and by the time i got back to the thread the only 2 people to claim were us, meaning you were confirmed watcher already.

if you werent confirmed watcher i probably would have been suspicious as well.

Tora conf!towned you after you were confirmed watcher as well.


i dont think that is AI at all.
He briefly suspected me yesterday, not today...

Both of those posts are odd, like you've forgotten what happened this game :O
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Post Post #2517 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:43 pm

Post by Nauci »

Still waiting for you to case/ISO Tora. I think having insight to your insights would be invaluable here.

I appreciate Tora's post a lot.
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Post Post #2518 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:44 pm

Post by Nauci »

If you're the last scum and made it this far, don't give up now! :D
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Post Post #2519 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:46 pm

Post by Nauci »

@MOD
I'm V/LA from Thursday the 18th to the 23rd or so because I'm not supposed to look at screens for several days. But starting the 20th I'll make an effort to check in a few times.
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Post Post #2520 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:06 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

ISOing Eragon today
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Post Post #2521 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:08 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Nauci do you have much experience in lylo situations?
I'm curious how good you are at lylo in a general sense/how much I should sheep you
I've failed in lylo once, and I think that's it in terms of being town in lylo

I did learn though that when you get to lylo, you should probably lynch the one you've more strongly townread for more of the game, because that's why they made it to lylo
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Post Post #2522 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

Specifically I'm referring to replacing into The Arena
lylo was me/Dunnstral/Something_Smart
I had been leaning on a town!dunnstral read to form a lot of my other reads
I made the mistake of continuing to townread them in lylo, when situationally I should have known that made them scum

Who has been in town's blindspot since d2?
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Post Post #2523 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I'm sorta leaning Eragon, but I'm keeping it in mind as I go to re-read
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Post Post #2524 (ISO) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:11 am

Post by Irrelephant11 »

I don't. super? townread Tora's casing me in the last couple pages, kinda just looks like busywork meant to look towny
I guess the same could be said about Eragon just being defensive in the past couple pages so w/e ISO time
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