Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[UnaBombaH]

To format my thoughts into two separate parts, while still keeping the logic same:
I'm thinking that if we lynch CT/Chill = 100% scum.
Therefore (obv. assuming 3 scum) lynching in FA/nonny/dave/reundo is 25% to me.

I'm obviously leaving myself and my top townread in Boon out of this all, and

I'm gonna narrow this just a little more.

I think I've heard just enough of dave to sort them as town (I'm thinking Boon agrees?), and out of nonny/reundo, nonny has the latest scummy post, and more tie-ins with my top scumreads as well, leaving reundo out.
FA has been suspected by multiple players so far, and was one of Gammas top scumreads as well (if I remember correctly). Their D3 has also felt very much empty as well, so no trouble seeing scumpotential there.

..leaving me with a good feeling about having one scum in FA/nonny, so a 50% there.
Combine that with CT/Chill and it's 3/4 -> 75%.

I'm starting to feel like there isn't much more I can say at this point, but I feel like I'm ready to lynch anyone in that group of four IF Boon agrees with my logic.
If we are lynching in CT/Chill, I don't even care who's on the wagon because I'm certain we'll hit scum.

So leaving the mic open for anyone else to take it now.
I'll be checking the thread every day, but don't feel like spamming anymore until something actually gets done by someone else.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Tchill started out pushing me/Flavor Leaf by saying we shouldn't have survived, then began to claim Dave was likely scum once that push stalled. After Flavor discouraged people from voting Dave, he then went and said Una was scum(while agreeing with FA), only to backtrack when Una asked for a case. Then he started to appease Una by naming a scumteam he wasn't in and keeping me out of it despite his prior stated suspicions of me, that was a blatant attempt to make Una think we in a scumteam together. At this point, Tchill is pretty much obvious scum.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Una, can you comment on the cases I've made for a FA/Nonny/Tchill scumteam in 640 and other posts? Also, I feel like you are indeed being influenced by confirmation bias slightly. You said that a member of the scumteam has no need to put both their partners as scumreads in 637. On day three I've consistently scumread Fa, Nonny, and Tchill13. You're currently suggesting I'm teammates with Tchill and one of FA/Nonny, wouldn't it be odd for me to do that then? Also, all of three of those players have pushed me throughout the day, do you think the scumteam would spend a significant time bussing in MYLO with nobody in their team dead? Overall, I think FA/Nonny's tendency to townread Tchill and not target each other while Tchill finds reasons to vote everyone except them is much more suspicious.

[UnaBombaH]

Also, I feel like you are indeed being influenced by confirmation bias slightly. You said that a member of the scumteam has no need to put both their partners as scumreads in 637. On day three I've consistently scumread Fa, Nonny, and Tchill13. You're currently suggesting I'm teammates with Tchill and one of FA/Nonny, wouldn't it be odd for me to do that then?

These kind of reads and interpretations are always formed one way or another (the opposite).
Unless it wasn't clear before - a singular scum who isn't/hasn't been widely scumread so far has no reason to try and "distance" from their teammates beforehand. (as they won't likely be the lynch themselves)
Especially if it might risk their buddies becoming the lynch for the day. (and scum potentially needs only one more mislynch to win)

The thing is obviously upside down for someone like you, who has been mentioned as a potential lynch candidate for a while now.
You would need to try and distance from your teammates at this point, especially considering that you have previously been too tightly knit together with Chill.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I think Nonny is pretty much universally scumread at this point and has more votes than anyone else right now. I don't see why you think she is likelier to have both of her scum teammates as townreads than scumreads, but also think I've probably been bussing throughout this day. In addition, Tchill's push of me on day 2 would be highly unnecessary bussing if we were scumpartners by your standards since anyone in the FA/Nonny/Davesaz/Reundo group could have been pushed by Tchill due to his hatred of lurkers, but wasn't. He actually initially suggested I should be lynched in 291 before any votes were cast on me, I'm not sure my wagon would have even happened if he hadn't suggested it and followed up with a vote. If you think that could have been bussing, can you please explain why its more likely than him trying to mislynch me?

[Completly Trustworthy]

Can other people comment on recent posts? I think that nobody other than me, Una, and Tchill have talked since 636. We have roughly two days and six hours to make a decision on who to lynch, so we have to hurry.

[davesaz]

The feeling that Tchill is just grasping at any available mislynch is growing by the hour.

[The Mighty Ducks]

vote count 3.04

nonny

(2) : Reundo, Completly Trustworthy,

FA_Q2

(1) : Flavor Leaf,

UnaBombaH

(0):

davesaz

(0) :

Completly Trustworthy

(1) : Tchill13,

Reundo

(0) :

Flavor Leaf

(0) :

Tchill13

(0) :

not voting:

nonny, FA_Q2, UnaBombaH, davesaz,

with 8 duckies alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

day three will end with no lynch in (expired on 2018-10-18 13:30:00)

mod notes:
- Reundo v/la until 16/10/2018
- FA_Q2 has been prodded
- quack

[Tchill13]

The feeling that Tchill is just grasping at any available mislynch is growing by the hour.

I'm really gonna have to get in here ain't I? Definitely not the most effort I've ever put into a game.

Let's see...

[Flavor Leaf]

Nah, I don’t think you’re thecorrect lynch today.

[Tchill13]

I'm not.

UNA has aggressively tried to get me lynched today. Latched on to that suspicion immediately this day phase.

[Tchill13]

CT's assumption that scum knew Gamma's role is horrible. We have no information suggesting that's the case, and it's a totally valid strategy to kill someone who is townread. FL carried some scum equity from the gamibt so if he's town I could see scum leaving him alive. I'm very much a possible ML target for lurking so scum have no reason to kill me. Lurkers in general are ML targets if they're town, so leave out Reundo and Nonny too. Once you start identifying kills that are potentially worse than Gamma, the more it seems unlikely that scum knew his role and more likely he was just a priority to NK because there are better mislynches available.

What would take more reading would be finding out

why

CT's making that assumption. The stated reasons don't make a lot of sense to me.

I do dig the idea of VT trying to draw a nk for a possible watcher / tracker. And claiming to attempt to avoid lynch is something that I can see fitting CT's apparent personality from the previous game. So if the even night doc -> VT claim is real it's likely to be town motivation. Not enough to conftown but likely.

I liked 546 and 548 from Una.

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

I don't think Reundo answered the question in 475 but he's VLA so guess I'll probably be waiting on that.

Yes, it was 474. I had asked that question to find out if "other people" were the ones you had voted (Nonny, Wilky) or someone else. I probably glazed the block of text in the post that Tchill was replying to.
Do you still SR Tchill btw?
I too thought Flavor Leaf's reply was a little shallow but he's my strongest TR. But here's a followup on that topic, I'm curious whether you're taking FL's word for what I've been doing or if you actually know yourself.

The feeling that Tchill is just grasping at any available mislynch is growing by the hour.

Dave's last few post (the only ones with much in game reads not complaining about availability)

Throw shade at reundo and FA.

Seems to lean towards town clearing CT for his fake claim.

Pushes me and asks others to do so.

[Tchill13]

Also shows positive town vibes towards una.

[Tchill13]

If FA is scum. Kudos for the fake bread crumb. I'm not gonna let paranoia ruin this game for me. If he's scum he can be caught later but not this day phase. He has teammates.

FA is the first of a town lock for this day phase only for me.

[Tchill13]

Reundo will also probably be town locked for this day phase. The glimpses of the game I have seen I've noticed he seemed to be trying to solve.

Any suspicion of a tchill/nonny team is valid. But putting me with anyone else is a tougher task imo.

I started a new job. It's my first game back in a bit.

Lord knows I can't find a good middle ground. I'm either checking the game every 30 minutes with several replies each time or I'm checking it once a day and barely posting. Anyways, I'll give this game it's due diligence.

[Completly Trustworthy]

Tchill, what bread crumb are you talking about?

[Flavor Leaf]

If FA is scum. Kudos for the fake bread crumb. I'm not gonna let paranoia ruin this game for me. If he's scum he can be caught later but not this day phase. He has teammates.

FA is the first of a town lock for this day phase only for me.

Lol, yet if I had bread crumb more you’d push it as scummy

I even said I looked at FA’s scum game a lot early during my time on site here.

[Tchill13]

If FA is scum. Kudos for the fake bread crumb. I'm not gonna let paranoia ruin this game for me. If he's scum he can be caught later but not this day phase. He has teammates.

FA is the first of a town lock for this day phase only for me.

Lol, yet if I had bread crumb more you’d push it as scummy

I even said I looked at FA’s scum game a lot early during my time on site here.

DAMN IT I MEANT FL.

Boon. I'm talking about boon.

[Tchill13]

FL aka boon and reundo are my town locks this day phase and I will NOT be voting them today.

[FA_Q2]

I don't really understand how FA is forming their reads. For instance, they initially said I was null in 462. Then they said that it was suspicious that I was still alive in 577. However, explanations were eventually offered for that.

There was a lot more than just you staying alive that was at issue. Your claim, retracting it and most of your 'reasons' you gave around all this are scummy.

Now I don't get why they are so confident that I am scum and not null. Also, their read of Una is confusing. They claimed they didn't like 498, but I don't really see anything scummy in that and Una addressed it. Also, they said it was scummy that I wasn't being pushed on surviving the night(even thought I think I was), then claimed one of the people pushing me was a teammate. Basically, they claimed that the scum were simultaneously distancing themselves from me and trying to keep the attention off me, it just doesn't make much sense.

[/quote]
That post screams scummy to me. There is no real town reason to do it. it is just to out of place. Una's recent posts have thrown me a bit though.

[FA_Q2]

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

Like?

Dave.....


I mean, it is awfully ironic that your shade on me was not following through and here you are, not following through.

[FA_Q2]

VOTE: Completly Trustworthy

[Flavor Leaf]

Wait, why am I a town read now and not being scum read by you?

[Tchill13]

Wait, why am I a town read now and not being scum read by you?

You crumbed. You did a fake claim gambit.

If you did a fake claim gambit AND crumbed as scum on a separate fake claim. Well done.

[Tchill13]

I gotta sort FA and nonny.

I feel pretty good about Dave and UNA scum. Which means probably one of them is actually scum.

CT I can't really decide.

But I'm definitely working with BOON and Reundo.