Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over


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Post Post #370 (isolation #0) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 4:51 pm

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: a50

Aggressively serious vote, am caught up, can discuss when not mobile.
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Post Post #383 (isolation #1) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:00 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 379, Almost50 wrote:
In post 378, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 373, Almost50 wrote:Do you have any suggestions?
umvote me or I'll join Jingle.
Now, I know you know me as much as I know you. Do you think that was the best way you could have phrased it??

And
you still haven't given me an alternative target
to vote for, so I am on you because I -at least- know you're not a Mime (bc DT replaced out while being wagoned).
This post is the perfect explanation of why A50 is mafia, btw.
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Post Post #384 (isolation #2) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:03 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 378, Nero Cain wrote:
In post 373, Almost50 wrote:Do you have any suggestions?
umvote me or I'll join Jingle.
Do it. Do it. Do it. Do it. Do it.

Just think of how much more towncred you'll get when you join me
before
I explain myself.
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Post Post #386 (isolation #3) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:17 pm

Post by Jingle »

Okay, I can't remember and it isn't made explicit in this game's OP, so I'll ask here.

@mod: Do Mimes endgame town if both mafia and the vig die? If not, what is the resolution?


Town would win in that case.
Last edited by Kmd4390 on Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #4) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:19 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 385, Almost50 wrote:
In post 384, Jingle wrote:Just think of how much more towncred you'll get when you join me before I explain myself.
And you have an explanation too!! SWEET! :P
Aye.

What are your townreads?
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Post Post #389 (isolation #5) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 6:53 pm

Post by Jingle »

Excellent.

Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?
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Post Post #393 (isolation #6) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 7:06 pm

Post by Jingle »

A50, btw, is scum because he's a setup speccy player who is actively spouting plans that are only viable for town if scum plays along. Town doesn't expect scum to act in it's best interest. Further, A50 isn't looking for scum, he's looking for mimes despite being one of the most active players. Looking for mimes is a waste of time D1 for all but 3 players. The two mafiates and the vig. The vig, of these three wants to search for mimes without making such obvious. A50 on the other hand is very very clearly only threatening the less important scum faction. The faction we can defeat literally 100% of the time in this setup.
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Post Post #398 (isolation #7) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:00 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 395, Almost50 wrote:@Jingle: Mimes are the "less important" faction of the two? Tell me more. Also, tell the crowd something they don't know already, because I already said I was explicitly hunting for Mimes on D1.
Setup spec with Jingle time!

First of all, the mimes, like in actual Paris, are a distraction. Their faction literally cannot win with an intelligent playerlist. (Whoops, broke the setup. Sorry!)

If we lynch one mime, we then stop lynching and rely on Vig v Mafia. Annoying as this setup is, it's much better EV than risking an entire game loss on a single mislynch.

Now, as for the threat that mimes would present had I not just invalidated their wincondition (Don't worry, I intend to fix that with a hotfix suggestion to the mod so that we can still play an enjoyable game) it is lesser than that of mafia. Mimes cannot kill, but can roleblock. Mafia can kill. That means mafia has more opportunity to trim the accuracy of town's reads. Further, Mafia actively want to Mimehunt while Mimes don't give a shit about Mafia hunting. This means that there are more voices to be heard looking at who not to lynch than who to lynch.

Mimes, additionally, have the hamper that once their wincondition is a real threat (one of them has been lynched) we can mine that player's ISO for hints as to the other mime. It's not quite the same skillset as associative tells with a flipped mafia player, but similar enough that we will be working from a position of increased information BEFORE there is an opportunity for them to win.

Further, there are players in this game that if town will just be shot by the mafia at some point because of their reputation and scumhunting ability. (Thor, me, GL) Remember, mafia doesn't know those players aren't town, so if any of us is a mime a win is virtually impossible to pull off anyway.

tl;dr Mimes winning is A. Not even possible given the playstate we have right now and B. Incredibly unlikely even without me cracking the setup.


@mod: I would like to suggest you append the rules to disallow no lynching, on the basis that it becomes a breaking town strategy that invalidates the wincondition of an entire faction and kills the fun of the setup. You could do so by simply lynching a random player if there is no wagon at EoD and instituting plurality lynching otherwise. If you are uncomfortable making such a large change to the setup mid game, I would suggest that you take a poll of the players by PM so as not to contaminate the game with this discussion. I would bet that the players themselves would be more than happy to agree to this change, small though it may be.
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Post Post #399 (isolation #8) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:10 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 361, lane0168 wrote:Thank god for true hero's like jingle
I am the Hero that Arkham deserves.
In post 367, Almost50 wrote:
In post 360, Kmd4390 wrote:
Jingle replaces UnrealSeal.
Here's for hoping this is a Town slot though (otherwise, we're in deep deep trouble).
The super funny bit is: This post is going to be used to justify a scumread on me in 3... 2... 1...
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Post Post #402 (isolation #9) » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:54 pm

Post by Jingle »

I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.
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Post Post #410 (isolation #10) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:26 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 402, Jingle wrote:I was gonna post the deadline after rocky, but the mod beat me to it. Instead I’m just going to point out that Rocky himself would make a better avatar for that account.
Reading this again this morning, I see that it has a different connotation than intended. I don't mean to imply that you're a sex crazed brainless creation of a mad scientist, only that your name is Rocky and thus you should have a picture of Rocky. :oops: I apologize for any unintended insult

If I decide you're a sex crazed brainless creation of a mad scientist and I determine that to be the case later, I will outright tell you, not hide it in clever wordplay. I do kind of wish the clever wordplay had been intentional though, because that is the kind of snark I can appreciate.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #11) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 403, Thor665 wrote:
In post 359, Nero Cain wrote:Is is strange that ppl want to lynch scum over Lane? Also, you seem content sitting on a not scum wagon so your whine that we aren't lynching Lane seems odd.
It is not strange that people want ot lynch scum over Lane and I never said anything of the sort - what I did say was that Lane perfectly matches a large number of cases people are pushing, yet I'm the only one looking at him and *that* is suspect (which it is). Want to debate my actual statements instead of a straw man?

You haven't done mch to convince me you're not a scum slot - your predecessor was scummy and this has been very lacksidasical Nero play thus far. Are you claiming I should have a town read on your slot for some reason? Why?
In post 389, Jingle wrote:Thor, my wagon has just as much steam as yours, a loud mouthed asshole who actually cares about pushing it through, and managed to destroy two vanity wagons. Can I interest you in the sweet smell of actually progressing the game?
I like the idea of progressing the game, but the A50 run is pretty weak.
Do you actually townread Nero and/or Lane right now? If so - why?
I could find my way onto a Lane wagon or an Eragon wagon at this point, but neither had any steam when I subbed in and we're kinda at deadline. If you build it I will come though.

I do think Nero is likely town, although it's a weak read at best. 1st, his jump to A50 reads as a genuine scumread. 2nd, his reads progression about a50 matches up with mine fairly nicely. 3rd, the posts in which he does content (particularly 299) feel like they're actually going somewhere. Regardless, I think that my A50 wagon is clearly superior to your Nero wagon.
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Post Post #416 (isolation #12) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 6:54 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 411, Almost50 wrote:
In post 398, Jingle wrote:If we lynch one mime, we then stop lynching and rely on Vig v Mafia. Annoying as this setup is, it's much better EV than risking an entire game loss on a single mislynch.
And the Mafia shoot the Vig and then they decide the outcome of the game. Great idea. Next.
:thorface:

Mafia has the ability to both discover and kill the vig and discover and not kill the mime in this scenario, both reliably. If discovering the mime is that easy, then we are in no risk of lynching them. If discovering the vig is that easy then the watcher sits on the vig, and provides hard guilties that cannot be mimes. (Hard guilties that, you know, we can still lynch.) If we hit one mafia before the mime, they can't afford shooting likely vigs, because a single watcher guilty ends the game for them.
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Post Post #421 (isolation #13) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:27 am

Post by Jingle »

A. Wrong. This is about the scenario of "After we lynch one Mime." Mimes literally don't matter until that point, because they can't win until we lynch TWO mimes.

B. Wronger. Your premise is that the mafia will be able to determine the identities of both of our power roles and the remaining mime. If they accidentally hit the mime, Mimes can't win and we have vig and lynch again. If the vig accidentally hits a mime, we have vig and lynch again. If the watcher gets a result on the mime, we have vig and lynch again. In none of these scenarios does the vig actually have to out. Therefore, No Lynching (after hitting one mime) is giving scum the advantage if and only if both scum are still alive AND scum have better PR reads than our PRs have scum reads. The remaining mime will be aiming to roleblock both scum and vig equally because they only care who is likely to shoot them.

C. Wrongest. This game is balanced with the thought that town will be distracted by the presence of mimes and unable to scumhunt effectively. The trick to defeating that is to ignore the mimes and look for players who are likely to be scum. Mimes only matter if we lynch one.

Which leads us back to the point. Mimes are a distraction until they have already achieved half of their wincondition. Then, we can literally invalidate their wincondition without throwing the game if they become the larger threat. Therefore, focusing on Mimes is scummy as fuck.

In hindsight, I was wrong that their wincon is fully invalidated (if scum manage to find both PRs and shoot them before mimes exit the game we have to begin lynching again, which means they CAN win, although it remains incredibly unlikely.) It's just so unlikely that it really doesn't matter.
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Post Post #422 (isolation #14) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:35 am

Post by Jingle »

Point. I'll stop engaging in setup spec for now. I do tend to let it bog me down. :P
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Post Post #423 (isolation #15) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:37 am

Post by Jingle »

Hey, GL. What made the A50 wagon bad back in the day? Are you more interested now that it has Jingle?
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Post Post #448 (isolation #16) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:35 pm

Post by Jingle »

443 is a really tempting post. REALLY tempting.

UNVOTE:

I need to think when I'm a little less drunk, but I may actually be in favor of forcing the no lynch over either of these lynches at the moment.
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Post Post #449 (isolation #17) » Sat Sep 01, 2018 5:50 pm

Post by Jingle »

I'll be around most of tomorrow, btw. Probably not double checking the thread every ten minutes, but around.
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Post Post #463 (isolation #18) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:24 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 462, Almost50 wrote:Jingle has not only shown awareness of this, but has explained why the Mafia shooting an outed Vig was a bad idea (I maintain I would totally sacrifice myself in exchange of both TPRs if I was Mafia and my p was still alive though), and while being aware of the mechanics isn't scummy in itself it's the way he explained it to the masses that makes me iffy. I mean, WHY draw the Mafia's attention to it even if there was as little as a 5% chance of them not realizing it already? I mean, it could be argued that Jingle was talking precisely of the Vig, but saying it like that even the least competitive Mafioso would realize it applies to any "known" target of theirs.
First. Yes. I did see that post. It's a scum post.

Second, selective meta.

The game A50 knows me from we were both scum. And I made it very clear to him in that game that my scum strategy is to argue correct play.

As far as why I drew the attention to them targeting the town's choice of Night Kill target being a terrible idea (Which, yes, I did), it was because of one thing. A 5% chance of catching incompetent scum is not worth a 95% chance of not being able to use our PRs effectively. Aiming the watcher (and to a lesser extent, the vig) is a terrible idea, because publicly aiming a watcher means scum know exactly who not to shoot and the mimes know exactly who not to roleblock.
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Post Post #464 (isolation #19) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:29 am

Post by Jingle »

Sober me agrees with drunk me regarding not wanting either wagon to go through, btw.
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Post Post #466 (isolation #20) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: Lane

We presumably also have support from both A50 and Thor, so this is already a better wagon than Sesq.
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Post Post #471 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:06 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 467, Thor665 wrote:So basically the town read is mostly predicated on the value of your A50 read?
That's a silly stance.
Oh, btw, this is incorrect. It would be more accurate to say that because he is hearing hoofbeats and thinking horse and I'm hearing hoofbeats and thinking horse that we're based in more or less the same cultural and geological setting.

His thoughts mirror mine, therefore his intentions likely also mirror mine. Mine are from a town perspective, therefore his are likely to be from a town perspective. And yeah, it is admittedly fairly weak.
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Post Post #475 (isolation #22) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:10 am

Post by Jingle »

CFD?
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Post Post #477 (isolation #23) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:16 am

Post by Jingle »

I disagree. If someone has the same reasons as me for thinking something when I haven't made those reasons well known, it stands to reason that they are more likely to be approaching the problem from the same angle. The inverse tell is infinitely more valuable (Someone agreeing with you for made up or insane reasons is a pretty good indication that they are in fact not the same alignment as you, and rather that your original read is simply convenient to them), but weak evidence is better than no evidence in a vacuum.

In either case, this particular line of discussion seems fairly useless at the moment.
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Post Post #480 (isolation #24) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:32 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 462, Almost50 wrote: There was also this little gambit I had set (albeit it being of a small chance of succeeding) which is assigning the Mafia target. It was in hopes the Mafia duo are both inexperienced or not paying enough attention and would somehow forget about the Watcher when they think of the NK. The Watcher would have automatically been on the Mafia target to catch one Mafioso if that's the case.
In post 478, Almost50 wrote:
In post 463, Jingle wrote:Aiming the watcher (and to a lesser extent, the vig) is a terrible idea, because publicly aiming a watcher means scum know exactly who not to shoot and the mimes know exactly who not to roleblock.
Except I didn't aim the Watcher? In fact I deliberately "forgot" to make a mention of them at all! For all practical purposes an inexperienced/inattentive Watcher would have missed this "option" far more likely than the Mafia would have missed the existence of a Watcher!
Ftr, I still think the potential beauty of 443 is worth keeping you around for a day. But wow.
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Post Post #485 (isolation #25) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:55 am

Post by Jingle »

Ah, project pinecone. The game where I replaced into a town slot in a PoE-able game because Pine asked me to, refused to actually read the thread (not only the part before I subbed in, but the play of people after I subbed in) and buddied the serial killer until he shot all of the scum before lynching him on balance arguments. A shining example of how I generally approach games.

As far as knowing about how I think, I've waxed poetic about it in many of my games, including the postgames where I had no real reason to lie. Probably the best way to get into my head so to speak is to read one of the Newbie's I've played, because I go out of my way to educate people on my ideas about how to play mafia in said games or to look at one of the games I reviewed. If anyone wants links, I keep them around, but my standard scumplay is to literally forget who my partners are and setup spec in the most protown manner I possibly can. And what's more important is that you know that firsthand.
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Post Post #486 (isolation #26) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:57 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 482, Almost50 wrote:
In post 480, Jingle wrote:
In post 462, Almost50 wrote: There was also this little gambit I had set (albeit it being of a small chance of succeeding) which is assigning the Mafia target. It was in hopes the Mafia duo are both inexperienced or not paying enough attention and would somehow forget about the Watcher when they think of the NK. The
Watcher would have automatically been on the Mafia target
to catch one Mafioso if that's the case.
In post 478, Almost50 wrote:
In post 463, Jingle wrote:Aiming the watcher (and to a lesser extent, the vig) is a terrible idea, because publicly aiming a watcher means scum know exactly who not to shoot and the mimes know exactly who not to roleblock.
Except
I didn't aim the Watcher
? In fact I deliberately "forgot" to make a mention of them at all! For all practical purposes an inexperienced/inattentive Watcher would have missed this "option" far more likely than the Mafia would have missed the existence of a Watcher!
Ftr, I still think the potential beauty of 443 is worth keeping you around for a day. But wow.
:yawn:
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Post Post #492 (isolation #27) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:18 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: Lane

:yawn:
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Post Post #496 (isolation #28) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:29 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 493, Almost50 wrote:
In post 484, Fink wrote:
In post 483, Almost50 wrote:So, my vote now decides which of the MIMES is the counter wagon to mine! :lol:

For all practical purposes it's all the same to me since I believe them both to be Mimes, so I'll wait for one more vote on either to decide where my vote should be.
Your reads are equally strong? I thought your mimeread on Lane was just based on interactions with Sesq. If that's true, that ought to be a weaker read since we don't have a Sesq flip.
I had them linked together as early as the top of page 2:
In post 26, Almost50 wrote:Sesq is good scumm but she hasn't yet done anything scummy (well, a far fetched idea is that she is scum with lane and they're distancing already).
I was "more to it" on page 8:
In post 186, Almost50 wrote:Anyway, having thought it over..
IF
lane flips Mime, Sesq would be his likely p. I don't trust their cross voting of each other and I could see that as coming from a Mime team (obviously to get half the job done) or from a Scum team (merely distancing).
So, I think I had a "semi-conviction" that the two are of the same alignment way before I decided Sesq was a Mime because of the way she fought (or rather didn't) against her wagon. They're like "interchangeable". If X is Mime then Y is Mime where X is either and Y is the other in no particular preference.
As much as I despise this train of thought and argument, look at the effort Lane is putting into defending himself.

This reads more like "Scum caught for the wrong reasons" flailing than "Oh yeah, I WANT to be lynched but need to disguise that". The frustration is real. Funny, but real. Therefore, Lane is probably not a mime. So vote him.
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Post Post #497 (isolation #29) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:30 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 495, Almost50 wrote:Like, if I'm the Vig and either of them flips Mime I'm definitely shooting the other. I'm probably gonna get blocked for this declaration though.
:wink:
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Post Post #505 (isolation #30) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:39 am

Post by Jingle »

Nope, but you're damn close.

I'm saying that you scumreading me for 'suboptimal setup spec' is just as bullshit as townreading me for 'optimal setup spec'. Which is why, had you expressed a scumread on me when I queued it up for you, I would have immediately dropped the line of questioning and assumed you were town. The fact that you didn't showed more concern for how you were seen than what you were seeing, and is why I'm still pretty sure on you being scum.
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Post Post #509 (isolation #31) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:43 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 504, lane0168 wrote:
In post 500, Almost50 wrote:
In post 496, Jingle wrote:look at the effort Lane is putting into defending himself.
I don't see it. All I see him doing is arguing with Thor and ONLY Thor.
YES! thank you for paying attention
I had a sudden and aggressive urge to make a meme alt named ONLY Thor and ask kmd to replace this slot with that player. I'm not going to, because I have too many alts as it is, but I felt like sharing.
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Post Post #514 (isolation #32) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 508, Eragon wrote:claim at L-2?

or L-1...

i mean we only have ~5 hours left
I mean... If we want claims at all they should be PR/Not PR and done at L-1. Doing them at L-2 is playing around mimes, which... There aren't words.
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Post Post #519 (isolation #33) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 9:55 am

Post by Jingle »

Lane, you gonna self hammer and give A50 a heart attack?
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Post Post #524 (isolation #34) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Jingle »

See you in the dead thread on D3.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #35) » Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:07 am

Post by Jingle »

Nope, I'm too obvtown for scum to shoot N1 with a watcher in play.

:WIFOM:
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Post Post #532 (isolation #36) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:11 am

Post by Jingle »

Hats off to lane. That was played well.

VOTE: No Lynch.

I need to consider the utility of hypoclaiming compared to just outing incriminating watcher results.

I'd like to apologize to A50 for not realizing his plan until way later than I should have.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #37) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:28 am

Post by Jingle »

Not necessarily. Explanation to follow.
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Post Post #546 (isolation #38) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:44 am

Post by Jingle »

There's a very good chance that both the mafia and the mime were on A50 last night, in which case the information is mostly useless to us today anyway. Hypoclaiming there gives us the option of maybe getting another night of useful results out of the watcher without outing them before they can lead us directly to the lynch. Town players in this case would ideally be roughly split between 1 result on A50, didn't target A50, and 2 results on A50. The actual watcher can choose to hypoclaim early to allow others to double up on his claim, wait until later to see if someone guesses his results correctly, etc, which means scum wouldn't be particularly likely to guess who is right. On the other other hand, mime might be able to guess who the watcher is from this information, but they can neither aim for the watcher (two KPN hurts them WAY too much) nor communicate this to the scum (Scum want to kill the mime too).

On the other hand, if the watcher outs results now, vig has a pool of 2 people to shoot from, meaning we either hit mime tonight (Yay, we're playing a game with a vig vs. 2 scum, one of which is guiltied!) or we hit mafia (Yay! Mime is a known quantity and thus can't be lynched!)

I'm leaning hypoclaim myself, because regardless of claims we should be no lynching today and this leaves more room for Watcher survival without giving us the opportunity of Watcher dying to an accurate scumshot/inaccurate vigshot without giving us information.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #39) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:46 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 537, Almost50 wrote:
In post 531, Kmd4390 wrote:
Almost50 was killed Night 1. He was a
vanilla townie

Sesq was also killed Night 1. She was a
Vanilla townie


Day 2 starts now


Deadline is Wednesday, September 12 at 5:30pm EST.
A
l
m
o
s
t
5
0
d
o
e
s
i
t
a
g
a
i
n
!
Sorry, didn't realize you were VT crumbing until superlate. 443 was super nice though. ;)
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Post Post #550 (isolation #40) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 481, Almost50 wrote:@Jingle: while you replaced in after I was NK'd in Pine's "Project Pinecone" I was still following that game until it ended. There's also a 3rd thread we share where I can see your posts and thus can get a feel about your thoughts from your arguments. It's not a "game thread" but I sill am not sure if being more specific is still breaking the rules, so I'll stop at this.
BTW, in case anyone cares this was about the spoilered dead thread of a game that just ended AFAICT (I was the backup mod, it was Mastina's Lynch the Wolves Large). Unless A50 has access to one of the game review threads I stick my head into and I don't know about it. No we couldn't talk about it at the time (non public information about the other game, etc) but since the game is over now you all can go and look if you care.

Pretty sure it has nothing relevant to this game unless you want to try to figure out how I balance games.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #41) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:52 am

Post by Jingle »

No
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Post Post #556 (isolation #42) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:55 am

Post by Jingle »

A50 was right. Trading one mafia for the entire town PR group is pro mafia. More so when that trade relies on us correctly guessing between a mafia and a mime. Leaving the vig hidden is protown because (protip) the vig isn't going to shoot the vig.
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Post Post #557 (isolation #43) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:56 am

Post by Jingle »

Spec about who may or may not be vig is literally the least town thing you can post in the thread at the moment.
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Post Post #563 (isolation #44) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:00 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 559, GuiltyLion wrote:but if Vig just openly claims I don't think that's bad for town

it's just vig being deduced with no guaranteed watcher protect that's worst case scenario
No.
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Post Post #565 (isolation #45) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:05 am

Post by Jingle »

Okay, so there's three scenarios to consider if the vig claims.

1: Mafia kills vig. Mime RB's vig. Congrats, we're now at a 50% chance of instant loss because eventually we have to choose to lynch the mime or the mafia.
2: Mafia kills vig. Mime doesn't RB vig. Congrats, we're now a vanilla town against a mafia and a mime, meaning we HAVE to lynch to have a shot at winning and the mime is a legitimate threat.
3. Mafia doesn't kill vig. The watcher can't find mafia and is functionally a VT.

All of these scenarios are terrible for town. All of them.
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Post Post #570 (isolation #46) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:13 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 564, GuiltyLion wrote:Jingle no one elected you town leader

vig being deduced with no guaranteed watch protect is pretty clearly worst case scenario, objectively. vig claiming with watcher protect is far better. so you can disagree with the utility of a vig claim but nothing I said is wrong at all
Yeah, but posting No. Is literally the least letters I have to type to convey the message: "This is an objectively terrible idea and the vig shouldn't claim until I have a chance to explain why."
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Post Post #571 (isolation #47) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 566, Eragon wrote:4. mime rb's vig and we find the mime.
5. mafia and mime dont do anything and vigi can shoot

the good sides
4. We're now in 2v7 mountainous which is ridiculously scumsided.
5. Which is less useful than no lynching and letting the vig shoot for mafia.
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Post Post #572 (isolation #48) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:19 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 568, Eragon wrote:and what you forget is that mafia doesnt want mimes to win either so,

if 1 happens, and we catch both, mafia will probably out and hope their partner can win, to make sure the mime doesnt.
or, mafia should'nt kill vigi because then they will have to waste a NK to kill mime
Nope. Both will say they're mafia. Because neither of them wants us to lynch the other. It's literally a 50/50 lose.
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Post Post #577 (isolation #49) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:32 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 567, GuiltyLion wrote:the mime is now literally always a legitimate threat in this game specifically because you all lynched lane - we're absolutely not just no lynching until endgame. I want the hands of town's win chances in consensus and information driven by votes/wagons, not one town killing power. and you're completely ignoring advantage of a vig claim w/ watcher protect is a conftown. and 50% of instant loss is also 50% of instant win if we lynch the other mafia first
Vig has a 2/9 shot of hitting mafia, a 1/9 shot of hitting mime, and a 1/9 shot of hitting watcher.
Mafia have a 1/8 shot of hitting vig, a 1/8 shot of hitting watcher and a 1/8 shot of hitting mime.
Lynch has a 2/8 shot of hitting mafia, a 1/8 shot of literally losing the game outright, and a 4/10 shot of outing town power. Which we need. To deal with the mime.

No Lynch is clearly superior today.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #50) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:35 am

Post by Jingle »

The night 1 kill was pretty much always going to be one of {GL, me, Thor, A50} because of player hype.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #51) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:51 am

Post by Jingle »

For clarity, I'm not saying we're better than everyone else. I'm saying we have reputations as being particularly scary town players (deserved or not) and current site meta is "Shoot people who are good at town early."
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Post Post #583 (isolation #52) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:43 pm

Post by Jingle »

We do still have to come to a consensus over the three possibilities Watcher wise.

Watcher outs if they have useful information.
Watcher hypoclaim.
Watcher holds cards close to chest regardless and we pray for mafia to miss.

I oppose option three, personally and endorse option 2, but it is theoretically a valid course of action. Very high risk, possibly very high reward. If we commit to one of the courses, everyone needs to agree to abide by it.

Otherwise, we should no lynch until mime or vig dies. Watcher outs guilties on mafia immediately after tonight, because tonight is the only night where there is likely to be such an obvious vig/scum split on the kill. Watcher outs guilties on mime if the vig dies. Boring game, but it should go fast considering there's little to talk about during the day and KMD supports ending nights early with unanimous agreement. Also, I'd like to request that scum plan their choices of kills and RBs during the day so we can have as short a nightphase as possible, just for the sake of town player's sanities.
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Post Post #584 (isolation #53) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:44 pm

Post by Jingle »

If we go with my plan, mafia won't be mime shooting, they'll be watcher shooting. The hilarious thing though is that mime/PR/mafia all play to be bad nightkills, so telling the difference between them is notoriously hard, increasing the chance that mafia accidentally kill the mime.
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Post Post #604 (isolation #54) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:05 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 593, Thor665 wrote:The theory benefit of choosing option 2 over option 1 is that, if Mafia kill the Watcher we still get info if they have useful info.
The reality negative of option 2 over option 1 is it increases the ability of the Mafia to locate the Watcher regardless of the Watcher having useful info.
Wouldn't that make #1 the better option hands down? The only benefit requires the info to be useful to begin with, yeah?
What am I missing.
The possibility of a double visit. If mafia and mime both visited A50 then the intelligence isn't really actionable today. Hypoclaim then serves exactly the same purpose as your pseudolynch target bit. For town/mime it's a chance to help aim the vig at the player(s) they believe to be mafia. For watcher, it's a chance to out the information without necessarily dying.

In hindsight, yeah, a single result on A50 is probably just immediately out, because trading the watcher for one of the scum is great for us.
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Post Post #606 (isolation #55) » Wed Sep 05, 2018 4:10 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 597, RockyHorror wrote:I don't like hypoing right now. It gives way too much information to mafia for pretty little reward as an inno at this point only confirms someone as not being a mime.
Watcher isn't here to get innos; that's not what watchers do. Watcher is here to find mime/mafia.
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Post Post #616 (isolation #56) » Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:33 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 605, RockyHorror wrote:Looking off the wagon, I honestly forgot Aristophanes was in the game until now - is it normal for him to do nothing in a game like this?
Yes. Also, he was away at a scummeet for a large portion of the day. Doesn't make him town, but activity is expected to be low from Ari regardless of alignment.

Also, @Thor: A50's softclaim means only a terrible vig shoots him N1, because PR softclaim. On the other hand, both mafia and mime had good reason to suspect he was a high threat slot (PR softclaim). Also scum were almost certainly shooting for a watcher because a watcher is the biggest threat to them as me and A50 discussed yesterday.

Sesq on the other hand was suspected as both mafia and mime and had already claimed VT. He was literally the perfect vig shot.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #57) » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:25 pm

Post by Jingle »

In order:
Hypo claim means we all claim who we would have seen targeting whom last night.

:neutral:

:neutral: :neutral: :neutral:

Goddammit man, why do I always want to lynch you?
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Post Post #646 (isolation #58) » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:01 am

Post by Jingle »

Eh. It’s a weak scumread reason, more indicative of not paying any attention to the thread than anything else imo. The response is dumb (why avoid claiming NAI tells as scum) but I don’t think it’s so much scummy as lazy here. And lazy has pretty much been established.
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Post Post #651 (isolation #59) » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:28 am

Post by Jingle »

The problem is that there’s no incentive for people who don’t have strong reads to join wagons since they’re largely meaningless so you’re really only going to get input from people with strong reads at the moment.

I’m intentionally posting very little, on the other hand, despite being around to avoid calling attention to any pr tells I see.

If needs must I can share a little though. I doubt GL is scum for two reasons: 1. Scum gl has a partner to discuss with last night, meaning he knows there’s a good chance he is aware that no lynch is at least a possibility. He came into the thread assuming a lynch was the plan, but seemingly hadn’t read my arguments. Fakeable, but my gut says genuine. He DOES have a a lot of mime potential, given that what he was arguing was literally their best chance at winning, but the suddenness in dropping it seemed pretty town to me.

Thor, you and me had the worst interactions with the lane wagon. I think that means mime #2 is probably one of you two or voting sesq at EOD. Possibly a sheep vote onto sesq because mime doesn’t have to worry about lynching mime.

Era gin gives me the feeling that he’s sleeping, which normally makes me think scum but probably means not mime.

I want to lynch ari exactly as much as I did in grey flag, which means he’s probably town. I would still follow a compelling case there though.

And, I think no lynching and seeing what flips earlier than later while we’re all still somewhat invested in this game is high utility.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #60) » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:30 am

Post by Jingle »

Eragon sheeping. Sorry, I’m phone posting and the new phone doesn’t understand mafia yet.
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Post Post #655 (isolation #61) » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:46 am

Post by Jingle »

A big part of the analysis here is going to be about when people want to end the day, methinks. Waiting for full consensus seems less viable than simply voting no lynch when YOU think the day has gone on long enough. Arbitrarily long or short days hurt us. People taking stances, even if that stance is nothing is happening so we should go to night gives us something to consider.

I’m fine with ending the day now. If anyone is interested in pursuing a specific topic, they should do so. If I think that topic is compelling, I’ll even invite while we talk about it. Sitting around waiting for low activity posters to contribute doesn’t get much done, especially when you consider that low activity posters are likely to get shot sooner than later anyway in this kind of low information setup.
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Post Post #657 (isolation #62) » Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:00 am

Post by Jingle »

Between 1 and 3 for sure.
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Post Post #694 (isolation #63) » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:53 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 691, Fink wrote:Jingle. Are you just not reading longer posts?
That can't be it, I owned up to it with a one liner.

This has been Jingle, reading along and seeing nothing worth calling out.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #64) » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:57 pm

Post by Jingle »

I also wish we could somehow trim the playerlist by putting bullets into players who aren't obviously town. If only there was some way of doing that...

:roll:

And I agree that Nero isn't really doing anything. I disagree that that is inherently scummy. Hell, in this particular set of circumstances, it might not even be antitown.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #65) » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:34 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 699, Thor665 wrote:
In post 697, Jingle wrote:I also wish we could somehow trim the playerlist by putting bullets into players who aren't obviously town. If only there was some way of doing that...

:roll:
It's almost like my point was I wanted to do it faster than the slow grind we are getting to look forward to.
:roll:
It's almost like my point is that the way to make flips happen faster is to no lynch and look at the thread again after flips.
In post 697, Jingle wrote:And I agree that Nero isn't really doing anything. I disagree that that is inherently scummy. Hell, in this particular set of circumstances, it might not even be antitown.
If he didn't waste time by attacking Fink over it I could see your point.
But since he did...what are you smoking?
We agree he isn't paying attention. The disagreement is whether that is likely to mean he is town or scum.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #66) » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:43 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: No lynch
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Post Post #729 (isolation #67) » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:45 am

Post by Jingle »

In case watcher has useful information to out.

Also of note, KMD allows people to PM him saying they're fine ending the night early each night. We can get through nightphases faster if people do so.

Speccing whether mime hit vig/mafia is bad, especially when there's also the chance that both vig and mafia hit FAQ2.
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Post Post #737 (isolation #68) » Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:59 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 733, Aristophanes wrote:Meh? Night play games are less interesting in general, which is something I've come to appreciate when making setups of my own. It took me some time to understand it, but I niw try ti make games that are more day oriented bevause nighttime fun is solely for the mid and spectators, not the players.
/offtopic

Neighborhood oriented and role madness games can mitigate this severely. As long as everyone has something they can be doing during the night they're less likely to get disengaged and not care, even if that something is just having another player to talk about the thread with.

Additionally, rulesets like KMD's where a unanimous agreement by PM to shorten nights can help if the players take advantage of it, as can short night deadlines.

Mountainous, on the other hand is crazy boring and ALL about dayplay. Fun setups are all about balance between the two.
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Post Post #742 (isolation #69) » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:38 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 740, Thor665 wrote:Mountainous is my favorite setup.
I agree with everything Nero said in 739 outside of the 'slightly' though :lol:
Maybe in F2F.

And to be fair I said
can
mitigate this, not that they’re the only or even best answer.

Personally my favorite games to play are closed multi ball with almost no power (vig or cop or doc, but that’s about it), or arbitrarily complicated messes where pretty much no one has any clue what’s going on. I’ll admit the latter probably aren’t fun for a lot of people though.
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Post Post #744 (isolation #70) » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:14 am

Post by Jingle »

Yeah, rocky has hammer here.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #71) » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:11 am

Post by Jingle »

Interesting. I don’t think gl is likely groupscum, though it is possible he’s a mime.

Do you have reasoning for rocky scum you care to share?
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Post Post #756 (isolation #72) » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:40 pm

Post by Jingle »

Considering he was prodded two days ago and hasn't responded? No. Probably not.
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Post Post #771 (isolation #73) » Thu Sep 20, 2018 1:31 pm

Post by Jingle »

Okay. Thor gets lynched today. We kind of don't want to rush this day phase though, because now we don't have any town information to hide.

Play wise, mime should still attempt to stop the mafia kill tonight, because the longer it takes the mafia to shoot the watcher the longer before the mime can be shot. Therefore, Eragon, you should hail mary watch someone scummy tonight despite the fact you're probably a dead man walking.

I'll reread tonight/tomorrow and see who makes the most sense as scum and as mime. I also want to check thor's ISO.
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Post Post #816 (isolation #74) » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:25 am

Post by Jingle »

Okay, so plan A is shot out of the water.

Time to consider if a plan B works.

Currently we're at 4v2v1. After tonight that becomes 3v1v1.

I will 100% kingmake mime in 1v1v1, and any town player should do the same, mechanically speaking, therefore mafia needs to find the mime to win.

808 is valid with the exception that we definitely lynch in 1v1v2. We cannot win a 1v1v1 LYLO, but mime still has to pretend to be town in 1v1v2.

Alternative math to Lynching Thor.

No lynch today:

Thor can shoot, watcher can target Thor. Watcher is 0% threat to scum, because the only antiscum result he can get is that Thor is mafia, which we already know. Therefore, mafia has no reason to target watcher and can mime hunt. Thus mime should block mafia, but can't because watcher will be on Thor. Thor will shoot in {Not thor's partner, Not Eragon} Meaning in an absence of reads they have a 25% chance of hitting mime. I'm clearly not the mime, so that increases to 33%. Tomorrow is either 4v2 or 3v2v1. Mime will help lynch thor, so it becomes 3v1v1 going into night. Either 1v3 MYLO or 2v1v1 MYLO.

We lynch NotThor today:

Lynch mime: Autolose. 20%
Lynch Scum: Autowin. 20%
Lynch Town: 3v2v1 going into night, with the same caveats as above. No point in shooting Eragon tonight, so they shoot for mime. 33% chance. If we lynch not-me town, that's a 50/50. Next day is either 3v2 with one conftown and one confscum, which becomes 2v1 LYLO, or 2v2v1. 2v2v1, mime needs to lynch Thor to win, so will vote with town. At which point scum needs to shoot the mime to not rely on town picking scum over mime (lolnope, explained below), and we have a 2v1 with a confirmed town.

Explanation of 1v1v1:

Mafia wins by lynching town or going to night.
Mime wins by lynching self.
Town wins by lynching mafia.

Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.

Pick this post the fuck apart, because I don't want to lose to a gap in my logic.
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Post Post #817 (isolation #75) » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:41 am

Post by Jingle »

Suspicions of me boil down to three things:

I'm still alive.
Why does Thor kill?
Bad associatives with Thor.

There's three reasons I'm still alive. I accidentally VT slipped on D2 in a way that mafia almost certainly caught, two I was an obvious watcher target for most of the game, and three I was very very clearly not the mime since pretty much the page I replaced in.

Assuming Thor made the kill because he was the less townread of the two assumes two things: 1. The missing kill was not due to the mime hitting the mafia and 2. The mafia weren't using their less suspect member to avoid the roleblock. If I had been scum I would 100% have been making the kills because I would assume I wouldn't get roleblocked. Again, because I was an obvious watcher target. In b4 WIFOM, but it's really not a difficult leap to make.

The associatives with Thor bit I really can't argue down, except to say that I don't think they're half as damning as you think they are when you step back from the red colored lens of me already being suspicious.

I'm so bleeding heart town in this game that it's actually kind of sad I have to make this post.
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Post Post #818 (isolation #76) » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:02 am

Post by Jingle »

Wait. Wait. Wait.

808 is wrong.

1v1v4 going into night.

Mime has a 1/4 to target mafia (eragon confirmed not mafia).

Eragon has a 1/5 to target the same mafia.

That's a 1/20 that we find the last mafia and win. In the case that that is true, we'd probably lynch the mafia over the mime anyway, so mime is already screwed.

On the other hand, there's a 4/5 that Eragon targets not the mafia. That's a 4/20 for Eragon to get a confirmed Not-Mafia. This leaves us with 1v1v4 with two people who can't be lynched. Mime has a 25% chance of being lynched there, but no chance of being shot, because mafia has to kill Eragon. We also can't no lynch for the rest of the game, meaning the mime can just stop the kill. This maximizes the number of times we have to lynch, which is 100% the goal of the mime. And almost certainly worth the 5% chance of both Eragon and the mime targeting mafia.
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Post Post #819 (isolation #77) » Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:06 am

Post by Jingle »

Oh...

And as far as reads go, I could make a mime case for literally any one of the five and believe it. GL and Ari prolly not mafia.

Tell me again why IV isn't Thor's partner, cause the interactions look pretty bad FMPOV.

I think Fink might be a really good mafia choice, but I'm scared as fuck to lynch the guy who started the shift onto the mime off of No Lynch D1.
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Post Post #825 (isolation #78) » Sat Sep 22, 2018 10:02 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 822, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 816, Jingle wrote:Town has Kingmaker position here, but if we instead agree to vote any self votes in LYLO, Mafia has to obscure the identity of the mime and play for a no lynch. Therefore, voting a selfvote in LYLO is the only possible way to win as town.
I'm not really following this part - why wouldn't town and mafia both just agree to a no lynch and end the game on a happily ever after draw (assuming Mime blocks mafia every night)? Why should we kingmake a mime win instead?
I forgot about the Mime block and thought a no lynch ended the game in mafia favor.

Still would hammer self votes because to my philosophy is that a tie is a loss, and I'd honestly rather lose to the mime team than the mafia team.

What do you think of 818 GL?
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Post Post #830 (isolation #79) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:23 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 828, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 825, Jingle wrote:What do you think of 818 GL?
I don't really follow 818 or how it contradicts 808

I think you're assuming mime tries to roleblock in the world where we lynch Thor whereas I believe Mime's best play is to not roleblock and assume mafia is killing Eragon
818 addresses why the mime should roleblock.

Assuming the case where the mime doesn't roleblock:

Mafia kills Eragon. We are now at 3v1v1. Mime has either a 1/4 or a 1/3 chance to stop the nightkill, depending on if we lynch. Mafia has the same odds of correctly shooting the mime, which they want to do. That means mime has a 3/16 or a 2/9 chance of outright losing the game (odds mafia hits mime and mime doesn't hit mafia).

Assuming the case that mime DOES roleblock:

Mafia attempts to kill Eragon. Mime attempts to stop mafia. Mafia has a 100% chance of correctly targeting. Eragon has a 1/5 chance of correctly targeting. Mime has a 1/4 chance of correctly targeting. (They know Eragon isn't the mafia.) That means mime has a 1/20 chance of autolose. Note, this is lower than the chance of autolose if they holster their roleblock, it's just an autolose to town instead of whichever faction plays better. If Mime successfully blocks, they allow one shot to hit Eragon the next night and then the game is nightless until either they win or lose. If Mime unsuccessfully blocks, it doesn't matter if Eragon has the same target as them, because then Eragon dies and can't tell us anything anyway. What does matter there is that it changes their 1/4 and 1/3 to 1/3 and 1/2. Which means, for the next day that mime has a 1/12 or a 1/6 chance at autolose. Much lower than the initial chances of 3/16 or 2/9. (Greater than 10% lower in the former case and greater than 5% in the latter.)

Simply put, holstering the shot increases the chance that mime loses to being shot by the mafia by more than the chance town wins off of a hail mary investigation. So mime has literally no reason NOT to take the chance on roleblocking mafia. Thor was just presenting the situation in a way in which the pro mafia choice of actions seemed like the pro mime set of actions when it really wasn't, but when one looks at the math it becomes obvious that that is the case.
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Post Post #834 (isolation #80) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:18 am

Post by Jingle »

No, 818 is about if we lynch Thor. No lynching was always an alternative plan in response to 808. If mime is going to roleblock tonight (which I just explained why they should if we lynch Thor) then lynching Thor gives us the best shot. We're more likely to lose to the mime than if we no lynch, but less likely to lose to the mafia.
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Post Post #835 (isolation #81) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:21 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 831, Thor665 wrote:I think I'm still more active than most of the playerbase.
Probably means you should all vote 'no vote' roll over, and let me win because I'm the only one who cares about the game.
Also I've got a sexy beard, I'm hard to resist.
Sadly, this is not an inaccurate representation of the situation. Unfortunately, your beard isn't sexy enough to prevent your lynch on the grounds that you shot a dancing Jesus, so you have to hang eventually.

And also, I very clearly care about the game more than your scumbuddy, so really your scumbuddy should just claim in order to hand me the win. ;)
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Post Post #836 (isolation #82) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:33 am

Post by Jingle »

If we no lynch, Eragon is 100% watching Thor. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mime faction.

If we lynch Thor, Eragon is 100% watching not Thor. This gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mafia faction. Additionally, we could have Eragon choose his watch target publicly to incentivize the mime to roleblock further (because a negative result from the watcher with no kill means that the person who got targeted by the watcher was not mafia, benefiting town), but given my previous post that shouldn't be necessary because strictly numbers wise, the mime wants to find the mafia TODAY when there is no risk of them being shot over tomorrow when there is a high risk of them being shot.

If we lynch for Thor's partner, Eragon is 100% watching Thor and unless he's incompetent (a trait Thor is not known for) Thor is shooting for the mime. This gives us a moderate chance of beating both factions and the only chance of Eragon surviving to LYLO, with the risk of instant loss to lynching the mime right now.

All three are viable courses of action, and I want everyone not named Eragon to weigh in on them before Eragon makes the choice, because that should give us information to look at to determine who is mime and who is mafia.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #83) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:39 am

Post by Jingle »

Of course, IV is MIA and probably being replaced, Fink is V/LA (which should end today!) and Ari is due a prod, so... I'm stuck just clarifying for you until they come back.
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Post Post #838 (isolation #84) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 10:40 am

Post by Jingle »

And now I'm going to stop spamming the thread, because really, trying to get my post count above Thor's is a horrible use of my time.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #85) » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:10 pm

Post by Jingle »

It's okay, Ari. We love you despite your lurkeryness. Come talk about me and who you think is mafia.

Also, for the record, Thor talking about how sexy his beard is while I'm proposing a plan of action involving setting up a player whose sole job is to stare longingly into Thor's eyes all night every night is at least as laugh worthy as what you bolded, Eragon.
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Post Post #853 (isolation #86) » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:58 am

Post by Jingle »

For the record, I am currently in support of "Lynch Thor">"Lynch Thor, Eragon claims watch target in twilight">"Lynch for Thor's Partner">"No Lynch".
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Post Post #855 (isolation #87) » Tue Sep 25, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by Jingle »

If mafia is known to the mime, 2v1v1 is unwinnable for town (and also mafia), regardless of whether mime is a known quantity.

I've been debating whether or not to share this information, but I can't imagine mime not figuring it out when it comes to fruition.

Mafia won't lynch mafia. Mime also won't lynch mafia. (Mime loses if we lynch the second mafia player). 2 votes is not enough to reach the threshold. Mime will roleblock mafia, meaning no nightkill. That means the only possible lynches are on town or mime. Mime wins if mime is lynched. If town is lynched, we come back to the 1v1v1 where no one is willing to vote. Talking to KMD, he would end a string of No Lynches/No Kills as a happily ever after. (Which is NOT a win.)

That means if we No Lynch, we have one more lynch attempt to find Thor's partner AND Mafia needs to kill the mime in their next two shots in order for town to win.

If we lynch Thor, we have 1 more lynch attempt to find Thor's partner unless mafia shoots the mime OR the mime successfully roleblocks, in which case we have two attempts to find Thor's partner.

If we lynch notThor, we have 2 lynches to find Thor's partner before the mafia endgame us, for sure. Two successful roleblocks increases that number. This option objectively gives us the best chance at beating specifically the mafia team, because Thor has no reason to shoot for Eragon while he's still alive. He needs the mime dead just as much as we do, but with an outed scum player, the watcher gives no additional danger for scum.

I am now leaning lynch outside of the Thor/Eragon dichotomy, lynch Thor, and no lynch in that order.

@Everyone: Assuming we decide lynch outside of Thor/Eragon who is your preferred lynch.
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Post Post #862 (isolation #88) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:47 am

Post by Jingle »

Preferred lynch if not Thor is definitely Fink atm though, 854 feels like a bussing post.

+1.

Tbh, a big part of my willingness to lynch fink is that I’d feel the least bad losing there if he’s a mime.

You mentioned earlier that you were pr telling to draw the kill. Do you have examples?
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Post Post #864 (isolation #89) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 856, innocentvillager wrote:whats going on in this game lol
2 days to deadline, Thor has a watcher guilty, at least three slots have done nothing today, and you’re a serious contender for a lynch based on associations with Thor and a severe lack of game-solvey-ness.
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Post Post #865 (isolation #90) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:51 am

Post by Jingle »

GL
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Post Post #867 (isolation #91) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:56 am

Post by Jingle »

Also, sale sushi sounds dangerous.

I had a nice chicken Marsala that was pretty easy to make the other night.
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Post Post #870 (isolation #92) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:41 pm

Post by Jingle »

So, ummm... 868. Mime post? Or super mime post?
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Post Post #872 (isolation #93) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:28 pm

Post by Jingle »

I can't tell if you're serious, or if this is an amazing troll. Either way, A+ for effort.
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Post Post #876 (isolation #94) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:34 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: Fink

I’m going to lynch the fuck out of IV if Thor doesn’t shoot him.
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Post Post #977 (isolation #95) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:04 pm

Post by Jingle »

Still town. Fairly certain on GL town at this point with an outside chance of mafia if Fink town. I'm trusting Eragon on Ari town.

Fink is probably scum. IV is either the best bet for mime or scum, and if he doesn't die tonight you should lynch him.

Ari, lynching Thor before his partner gives us 0 additional information and kills the conftown. The argument isn't that we shouldn't lynch thor, it's that we shouldn't lynch Thor today. Thor's lynch nets us NOTHING today. Leaving him around means the conftown isn't the largest threat to scum, meaning we get to keep Eragon and scum will INSTEAD shoot for the mime because the scum.

We're in exactly the same position tomorrow if you lynch me. Lynch for Thor's partner, not Thor, unless the mafia shoot the mime, in which case, normal game rules apply.
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Post Post #982 (isolation #96) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:10 pm

Post by Jingle »

FWIW, I will be around to self hammer if necessary before deadline.
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Post Post #983 (isolation #97) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:31 pm

Post by Jingle »

Btw, GL doesn’t white knight me here as mafia. Letting my lynch go through and then coasting on being townier than fink and IV means he’s town.

Fink is scum, not mime BECAUSE of the push on me. He doesn’t want to die and it shows. He’s putting forward any alternative when the logic leading to a conclusion that I’m scum discounts literally everything I’ve done today, and ignores crucial information. IV is the most obvious mime candidate, which means if he doesn’t get shot he’s probably mafia (this in the case I’m wrong about Fink.) mafia won’t leave him alive because if he’s not mafia he’s going to eat a night kill and is probably scum.

And trusting the read of a confirmed town player on someone you can’t read well is not only not scummy in the slightest, but also simply common sense.
M
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Post Post #984 (isolation #98) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:33 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 983, Jingle wrote:Btw, GL doesn’t white knight me here as mafia. Him not Letting my lynch go through and then coasting on being townier than fink and IV means he’s
Ftfm, kinda. Phoneposting, but y’all get the drift.
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Post Post #985 (isolation #99) » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:45 pm

Post by Jingle »

Also, would like to point out that everything fink has said about why I’m scummy has already been answered in the post GL linked, yet he’s avoiding acknowledging that.
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Post Post #1000 (isolation #100) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:22 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!
Ffs. Not lynching today loses us a mislynch. Does anyone read what I type?
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Post Post #1001 (isolation #101) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 999, GuiltyLion wrote:I still think Ari is playing a more logical mime game than IV

but the IV activity fall off is really becoming more and more of a relevant concern. I've played with town IV a few times before and I cannot remember him ever being this non-engaged
Hence why I’m saying lynch the slot. If it’s not mafia, it’s either mime or so antitown that the game is unwinnable.

If Thor leaves not mafia IV alive, he’s gambling on it being not mime. And it’s top contender for mime.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #102) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:32 am

Post by Jingle »

We lynch the slot tomorrow, for the record.
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Post Post #1003 (isolation #103) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:33 am

Post by Jingle »

Oh, hey. I have more posts than Thor.
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Post Post #1004 (isolation #104) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:46 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1002, Jingle wrote:We lynch the slot tomorrow, for the record.
Or, I guess, the day after tomorrow.

If we no lynch for deadline, I have at least one theory post to make tomorrow, so don’t rush the Thor lynch.
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Post Post #1005 (isolation #105) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!
Rank the four possible lynches in order of most likely to least likely to be mime.
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Post Post #1007 (isolation #106) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:55 am

Post by Jingle »

Also, @mime: at least two members of town have offered to mimeside and kingmaker you in 3p. Outing yourself by blocking Thor isn’t the worst plan ever, especially if you’re a likely nightkill.
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Post Post #1011 (isolation #107) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:09 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1006, Aristophanes wrote:GL
ICV
Fink
Jingle

Probably
And you think I’m just straight up town? So if Fink is mafia, we have to lynch him before we run out of possible mimes or we lose the game or we lose.

Not taking the chance today means relying on mafia to have more accurate mime reads than you. Id rather lynch the person who is both unlikely to be mime and likely to be mafia than give up a shot at lynching mafia. If either fink or I are mime, odds are we’re not getting shot today and we’re in this same place tomorrow. Taking the leap now versus tomorrow or the day after is the same. No lynching for fear of mime is scumsiding when the game can’t resolve itself via vig.

You should vote between me and fink, because in the situation that fink is town, or that you lynch me, we need both of our mislynches to win the game.
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Post Post #1012 (isolation #108) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 7:13 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1010, Eragon wrote:
In post 1005, Jingle wrote:
In post 992, Aristophanes wrote:I've been convinced this is a bad idea so
UNVOTE:

I would rather nolynch than take a chance today I guess.
What a ride!
Rank the four possible lynches in order of most likely to least likely to be mime.
Thor > Thor > No lynch > Eragon

/s

Legit anyone could be mime rn
So every player is identically likely to be mime? There’s no spectrum at all?
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Post Post #1018 (isolation #109) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:09 am

Post by Jingle »

Thank you, I was trying to bury that lead, GL, to convince mime to townside here. :facepalm: GL still probs town, ftr.

I'm frankly torn between self hammering or not should I hit L-1 for deadline. Like, I shouldn't ever be considered an option for a lynch at this point. I'm so town it hurts. I've done the most gamesolving of any slot, have the most protown content, and have been consistently trying to screw over both antitown factions using theory. On the other hand, if I have the option, it means there is credible suspicion on me and I'm at best a distraction to the town, plus a green flip from me means that EVERYTHING I'VE SAID IS TRUSTWORTHY.
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Post Post #1019 (isolation #110) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:30 am

Post by Jingle »

Ari here are the numbers.

In the event of no lynch, scum is going to shoot for mime. There is no use in trying to target their shot, because it is the best use of their night action for their wincon, and Thor doesn't play antiwincon. Tomorrow we lynch Thor, regardless of outcome. Thor's partner will then need to shoot for the mime again assuming they didn't kill the mime the previous night, so Eragon will stay alive, because 2v1v1 is a situation that cannot end in a town win via lynch. This means Eragon will stay alive. So our odds at winning in a No Lynch are the same as a 3v1 MYLO if mime is shot tonight (25% chance of hitting mime tonight), a 50/50 if mime is shot tomorrow (75%*1/3 or % chance of hitting mime tomorrow(But actually less because of the RB, which isn't getting considered atm to simplify math)), or 0% if mime is never shot (the remainder). Weights there mean collective town EV from a no lynch is 20.8% assuming that you don't discount the possibility of me-mime in the shots.

If we lynch, we have a 20% chance of hitting thor's partner. Which is an autowin. It also makes the scum shooting the mime more likely, pumping up our odds of lynching right down the road, if we lynch one of the townies, 60%. I think the vastly increased odds of town win here speak for themselves. Even just confirming someone as not mime and then not lynching them helps if they're town, because then mafia won't want to shoot them. Because they're not mime, and shooting for mime is the only correct play if Thor is still alive.
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Post Post #1020 (isolation #111) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 8:33 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1015, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1009, Eragon wrote:Legit just don’t shoot me or Aristophanes,

Everything else is fair game
Not sure I'm seeing the game quite like you are.
I stand by my previous statement - not gonna shoot you if I'm alive tonight.
Hey thor. Shoot whoever you think is mime because that's how you win this game. :roll:

Alternatively, shoot your mafia partner, claim vig and hope that town is super incompetent. Who knows, it might just work.
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #112) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:48 am

Post by Jingle »

2.5 hours.

Currently it’s a no lynch, because no plurality
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Post Post #1030 (isolation #113) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:49 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1028, Fink wrote:It's not plurality, it's majority. If IV is town we can't win without Mime voting Mafia.

If we no lynch we lose a mislynch, so better to self-hammer, same as with MYLO vs. LYLO. I will self-hammer if I'm at L-1 and it's deadline. I think Jingle should do the same if he's town.
So... no response to “your case is baseless?” Cool.
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Post Post #1032 (isolation #114) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:08 pm

Post by Jingle »

Or... Thor performed the kill to dodge the roleblock. Or Thor performed the kill because the night two mafia kill was stopped. Or Thor performed the kill because he was setting up for a vig claim. And literally all of those have been brought up, this dayphase, with no mention by you as to why they are any less likely.
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Post Post #1034 (isolation #115) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 12:41 pm

Post by Jingle »

Yes.
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Post Post #1037 (isolation #116) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:19 pm

Post by Jingle »

If you are town, I’m sorry that you were the best option today and I promise to re-evaluate after we lynch Thor and get flips. If you’re mime, I don’t feel at all bad about you winning. You deserved it. If you’re scum, we’ll played, but not well played enough. I support the hammer, regardless of from whom it comes.
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Post Post #1038 (isolation #117) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:24 pm

Post by Jingle »

7 minutes, ari. If you’re gonna hammer, hammer.
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Post Post #1044 (isolation #118) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 1:36 pm

Post by Jingle »

If IV is Thor partner this could be tactical as well, but yeah, if he’s town this game is never gonna be a town win. Honestly I hope you’re town and we win together, but I’m not gonna bet the game on it.
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Post Post #1049 (isolation #119) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:05 pm

Post by Jingle »

This probably doesn’t flip. Ari hammered two minutes after deadline.
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Post Post #1050 (isolation #120) » Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:08 pm

Post by Jingle »

Pretty damn sure that fink is not mime though, so that’s nice.
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Post Post #1058 (isolation #121) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:00 am

Post by Jingle »

So...

We lynch Thor.

Mafia has to shoot for mime or the game becomes unwinnable.
Mime has to try to stop mafia or the game becomes unwinnable.

Tomorrow we've got 3v1v1 (Successful Mime Block), 2v1v1 (Town Kill), or 3v1 (Mime Kill).

If a townsperson dies the game goes to Kingmaker/Draw scenario, which everyone wants to avoid, which means Eragon is off limits for shooting tonight.

Does anyone need the reasoning for why any of that is objectively true?
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Post Post #1059 (isolation #122) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:03 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1056, Fink wrote:Feel like the extended night again is going to just hurt morale even more, but if even one of GL or IV is town we basically can't win anyway. And that feels depressingly possible.
KMD will let us shorten night phase by unanimous agreement. I have already sent my approval to shorten the next night phase. I would like to ask that all of you do the same. Neither scum will have a partner to discuss things with. Today affords no additional information. There is literally no point in extending the night phase. We know the lynch, so anyone with a night target can just pick now. And that way KMD just has to resolve actions and we don't have to wait for another 2 RL days before doing something.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #123) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:19 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1061, GuiltyLion wrote:yes? 2v1v1 (or 1v1v1 for that matter) isn't "objectively" a kingmaker/draw scenario... if town lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch mafia or mime. If mafia lynches they have a 50% chance of winning or losing depending on whether they lynch town or mime. It's a kingmaker if everybody openly claims but I highly doubt that's how either mime or mafia would play that out.
:mrgreen:

Except... 2v1v1 is a scenario in which only the mime can be lynched.
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Post Post #1068 (isolation #124) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:49 am

Post by Jingle »

Okay, I'll break it down.

2v1v1:

Mafia will not vote mafia, because it is an instant loss.
Town will not selfvote, because it becomes 1v1v1 and town can't win from there.
Mime will only lynch self, because if they lynch mafia they lose the game and if they lynch town they can't win the game (See: Kingmaker/HEA).

Therefore, we go to night. Scum will shoot for mime, because 1v1v1 is Kingmaker/HEA. The only problem is, Mime knows who scum is.

Because today, we lynch Thor. 3v1v1 Mime picks someone to roleblock that isn't Eragon. Eragon dies. Mime has a conftown result. Mime can now narrow down the scum through PoE and prevent the next night's kill. Dawn breaks. We have a 2v1v1. We can't lynch, so we go to night.... And the game ends in a draw. Or one faction picks a different faction to win.

But wait! Why won't mafia just no kill tonight to avoid the watcher guilty? Because, friends, that puts us into the 3v1v1, meaning they have to dodge two lynches while ensuring the mime isn't lynched the first day and gets shot the first night, giving Eragon an even better chance at catching them. Mafia can choose to no kill here, but it actually helps town and harms mafia.

But wait! Why wouldn't mime just let the mafia kill go through tonight? Because friends, not being able to narrow down the scum makes it less likely they'll be lynched, because they want as many no kills as possible.
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Post Post #1069 (isolation #125) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1067, GuiltyLion wrote:ehhhh let me think about how a Mime would want to play that
Protown behavior is to no lynch. Promafia behavior is to no lynch. Promime behavior is to lynch self. Lynch self is impossible, therefore, the game will no lynch.
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Post Post #1070 (isolation #126) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:37 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1061, GuiltyLion wrote:I kinda think this might be a townslip on Jingle's end
BTW, the townslip on Jingle's end is that if I were mafia, Thor would have 100% shot Eragon last night. Whoopsie. :wink:
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Post Post #1071 (isolation #127) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:45 am

Post by Jingle »

I realized there's literally no point in keeping this to myself.

Fink isn't mafia. He might be mime, but he isn't mafia.
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Post Post #1072 (isolation #128) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:46 am

Post by Jingle »

Like, 90% confidence there.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #129) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 11:47 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1076 (isolation #130) » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:13 pm

Post by Jingle »

I'd have shot you. (Or rather, vetoed any shot Thor wanted to make that wasn't you).

It's objectively the right call to make last night from scum me. Yesterday post lynch it became obvious Thor was the lynch today. If thor is roleblocked, then you out the mime and I immediately have a path to victory. If thor isn't roleblocked, I have to shoot for mime tonight to make the call, but I'm more likely to dodge the mime roleblock than any other living player. Ari and GL were in "Never gonna vote Jingle" mode which means I can afford the no kill and guide the lynch away from myself strategy to narrow down mime reads.

/inb4 WIFOM, but it's very obvious I'm town here.
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Post Post #1079 (isolation #131) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:05 am

Post by Jingle »

Only if IV is town. In which case town lost a long time ago, we just didn't realize it until now.
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Post Post #1080 (isolation #132) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:37 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1, Kmd4390 wrote:7. Activity- I will send out prods to any player who hasn't posted in 48 hours (not including weekends). I will also prod by request from another player. I will replace anyone who doesn't respond to a prod within 72 hours (not including weekends). I understand this is generous. By signing up, you commited yourself to playing this game. Please treat the game that way. If you get replaced, do not join my games in the future.
So, uhhh. GL, Fink and IV.

Also, can we get confirmation that IV responded in some manner to his last prod?

Yes.
Last edited by Kmd4390 on Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #133) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:39 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1083, GuiltyLion wrote:Though I do think Jingle's reversing on his positions from yesterday in terms of NK strategy and Fink's alignment is a little weird, and the self-imposed WIFOM about who he would have NK'd is extra weird.
Weird how?

I'm going to type up a post about the 'why's of what I've done, but I would love clarification here first.
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Post Post #1089 (isolation #134) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:48 am

Post by Jingle »

Draft typed and saved.

Hey Fink, would another math post be useful or meaningless filler at this point? I can't decide.
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Post Post #1092 (isolation #135) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 10:22 am

Post by Jingle »

:facepalm:
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Post Post #1104 (isolation #136) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:51 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1097, Eragon wrote:GL if you could give a basic list of what you think and why

Not a huge time-consuming ISO shit

Just straight up a sentence or two in everyone except me/Thor and the most notable AI things you see
Waiting on GL before I talk about GL/Fink.

IV on the other hand:
In post 135, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 133, Thor665 wrote:
In post 131, Kmd4390 wrote:
innocentvillager replaces ldkldldldkdkdkdklllkkk
Straight upgrade.
you're going to be disappointed im super rusty and terrible at this game
Possible signaling, especially since no daytalk in this setup.
In post 396, innocentvillager wrote:ope will get to this
In post 634, innocentvillager wrote:sorry im pretty behind but basically i have no reads since sesq and a50 died and they were the ones i had reads on
In post 738, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: no lynch
In post 856, innocentvillager wrote:whats going on in this game lol
Not town, especially given: viewtopic.php?t=77211&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

He had ten game relevant posts in one day in that game on the seventh. During the timeframe where he was "not caught up" here. He had no other obligations on site at the time. The fact that he hasn't been shot by mafia gives this huge credibility as a mafia player.
Eragon wrote:when is it gonna be harder to Lynch mafia?

when we have 6 people looking at a PoE of 4 people, with a confirmed town?
or

when we have 4 people, with everyone unsure bout everything
The answer to the question you wanted to ask is that they are equally unlikely, because both scenarios require the mime to vote a player who gives them an instant loss if lynched.

Our options today are: Lynch Thor, Lynch Mime (And lose), and Lynch town.
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Post Post #1105 (isolation #137) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:53 am

Post by Jingle »

I'm going to explore the option of no lynch now, because honestly I hadn't considered it as viable for today.
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Post Post #1106 (isolation #138) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:54 am

Post by Jingle »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #1109 (isolation #139) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 9:43 am

Post by Jingle »

No Lynch: Night 2 mafia, 1 conftown, 2 town, 1 mime. 33% chance of hitting mime assuming absence of reads.

Hits town: 2v2v1. Have to Lynch Thor. 1v2v1 going into Night. Mafia has to shoot for Mime in order to win, Mime has to shoot for mafia in order to not die. 75% chance of HEA, 25% chance of 2v1 LYLO.

Hits mime: 3v2. Lynch Thor, Thor kills Eragon. 2v1 LYLO.

So in a no lynch we have a 7/36 chance of winning without taking into consideration reads.
Mafia has an 11/36 chance of winning without taking into consideration reads.
Mime has a 0% chance.
HEA is 50% chance.

Lynch Thor:

Shoot Eragon:

Kill Stopped: 3v1v1 with potential watcher results condemning specifically the mime. (1/3 for the kill stop, 1/4 for mime catch). Mime has a chance at winning, town has 1 lynch guaranteed and a second .
Kill Goes Through: 2v1v1: Probable HEA, possible 2v1 with no conftown. Mime can't win.

Shoot for Mime:

Kill Stopped: 3v1v1, same as above.
Kill hits town: 2v1v1, same as above but with a conftown. Probable HEA, possible favorable LYLO. Mime can't win.
Kill hits mime: 3v1 MYLO with conftown, same odds as a 2v1 with no conftown. Mime can't win.

No Kill (Also new to consideration):

3v1v1:
1/4 watcher outs mime. (Mime can't afford to no block)
Town has majority.

Not even gonna consider the Lynch Town option.

Mafia has the best chance of winning if we No Lynch. Town has a lower chance of losing to mafia if we lynch Thor. I'm way more interested in lynching Thor than no lynching.
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Post Post #1111 (isolation #140) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:05 pm

Post by Jingle »

The best play for Mafia is definitely to lynch a town player today.
Lynching Mafia today remains nigh impossible.

The rest of that is fairly accurate.

The reason lynching mafia today remains nigh impossible is that there are 3 people in the thread whose win condition is invalidated by lynching non Thor mafia. One of them has to vote with town to get a hammer. Alternatively, if town runs up mime, mime will selfhammer. If town is run up, Thor will hammer if he is reasonably sure that the town player is not Mime. It's an extension of the logic of 2v1v1 leading to No Lynch. Attempting to lynch the Not-Thor mafia today probably just loses us the game, and is definitely the highest chance for scum to win outright.
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Post Post #1112 (isolation #141) » Sat Oct 06, 2018 8:13 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1110, Thor665 wrote:If I was to try to be totally honest - for town I would suggest the best play is actually to lynch someone who isn't me or Eragon, that would be a 1/4 chance to lose, a 1/4 chance to guarantee win, and a 2/4 chance to end up in a similar situation to a no lynch.
This is actually a 3/4 chance to lose and a 1/4 chance to win, FWIW, assuming that I'm wrong and it's even possible to lynch the Mafia player.

If we lynch town, we go to 2v2v1. With 2 Mafia. And the mafia can kill literally any player to win. Which means the mafia will attempt to kill Eragon and the mime will need to accurately guess which scum is making the kill as well as possibly needing to guess the identity of Thor's partner.
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Post Post #1117 (isolation #142) » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:07 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1114, Eragon wrote:forgot about this

IMO as I stand rn, we help mafia win if its impossible for town to win, as I feel they played good.
(I would have never guessed thor unless I caught him, and especially if the other mafia is jingle... they were easily the best 2 players)

if theres any way town can win, we need to explore that
I’m still not mafia. Very, very obviously. Thinking I am is starting to get insulting. Town doesn’t auto lose unless we lynch notThor today. If we lynch Thor, mime has to town side to have a decent chance at winning. And for mafia to avoid the draw they also are incentivized to town side.

Seriously, read my recent math posts and understand that if I wanted to win as mafia here I’d shut up and let Thor talk you into the course of action that gives mafia a literal fifty percent chance for the win.
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Post Post #1118 (isolation #143) » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:21 pm

Post by Jingle »

Oh, also we don’t win if we lynch not Thor mafia today. Thor shoots eragon because shooting anyone else might give town the majority. Mime lets it happen, because lynching Thor is a game loss there and if they stop the kill the game is over. 2v1v1 with an outed mafia is a HEA.

VOTE: Thor

Please, by all that is holy, let’s lynch the ever loving shit out of this. Mime will play to their only chance to win. Scum will play to their best chance to win. We might get stuck in a draw scenario, but at least we won’t be throwing the entire game away right now.
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Post Post #1135 (isolation #144) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:59 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1125, Thor665 wrote:Though, I'll admit I keep forgetting this, lynching my partner today actually just gets town into a 3v1v1 where Mime will always block me and I'll always be shooting at 'not Eragon' which will end in a tie. So, yeah, the gamble for lynching my partner ends in an assured tie if you hit him, Mime win if you hit Mime, or Mime/Mafia win depending on the result of my shot and the lynch tomorrow.

I think for town to win you have to both not lynch anyone, and pray I manage to shoot Mime tonight.
Everything else appears to be a tie or worse for town.
Uh... This is wrong, but still functionally what I literally just explained a couple of posts ago. It's a 2v1v1. Because you shooting not town loses you the game in that scenario (town has three players, you're confscum) and mime blocking you loses mime the game (town has three players, mime loses if they lynch the confscum). Therefore Eragon dies, we no longer have any lynch capability or nightkill capability, and thus draw.

Our literal best case scenario at this point is to lynch Thor and have the mafia No Kill/get blocked tonight. 1/4 chance to lose. 1/4 chance to win. 1/2 chance to hope for the mime shot and move to a possible continuation, which might be made better by the watcher outing the mime.

Look at 1109. Seriously look at it. If we lynch Thor, the mime CANNOT no block because any successful night kill makes it literally impossible for them to win. Any successful block puts us into a position where we can lynch again, we have our confirmed town player, and the confirmed town player might be able to successfully out the mime. Our worst case scenario becomes HEA, our second to worst case scenario becomes a 2v1 LYLO, and our best case scenario is a repeat of today with a possible guilty and an actual town majority. This isn't rocket surgery. It's barely even brain science.

Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw. We can't possibly be 3v1v1 tomorrow. We are still incredibly likely to be forced into the draw. All we do by no lynching is remove avenues for our own victory.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #145) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:10 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1130, Eragon wrote:im sad too ;_;

even though i didnt really play a good "reads-game" and activity-wise i was bad, i was kinda just trying to flow under the radar until i found a guilty.

thAt guilty just came slightly too late to truly help :/

also, lynching mime D1 really screwed people's WIM
/oog

FMPOV your slips in gameplay this game were missing the PR soft target N1 and not townreading me (Which, admittedly, I might be biased about). Literally everything else you've done this game was fine playwise, and I had a worse fuckup on D2 than you did N1, so you really shouldn't feel bad about that assuming you mean what you said about me and Thor playing the best game.

I think that objectively Lane played the best out of everyone this game, and I kind of feel bad for the guy to have played so well and had the game win stolen from him. If I could posthumously add any player to the winning team it would be him, regardless of which team wins.
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Post Post #1138 (isolation #146) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:40 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1137, Eragon wrote:1. No one visited you N1/N2, and you still haven’t died even though you are probably the best/second best player in this game is awkward IMO
Okay. Addressed in .

Why would I be a likely target in light of:

Mafia should have been targeting for watcher, which I pretty obviously was not, or mime, which I pretty obviously was not.
Vig should have been targeting for mafia, which given your own admission that I'm town by play, would mean I'm an objectively bad shot.
Mime should have been targeting for mafia, which I pretty obviously was not.
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Post Post #1141 (isolation #147) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:02 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1140, GuiltyLion wrote:5p (3v1v1) means mime knows who mafia is
Actually untrue. If mafia no kills (a viable choice) it hits 3v1v1 without mime knowing who mafia is. The possibility that mafia no killed means mime can't be 100% sure that their block targeted mafia if we get to 3v1v1. It's unfortunately also why the watcher can't REALLY guilty a mafia in 3v1v1.

If we go hunting Thor's partner today, it's literally a 75% chance at a game loss for town in the best case scenario (mime gamethrowing).
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Post Post #1142 (isolation #148) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:03 pm

Post by Jingle »

Lying as town to convince scum to use suboptimal nightplay is pretty much par for the course. Wanting to keep the conftown watcher alive as long as possible is also pretty much par for the course (as town).

Fink being not mafia isn't really a reversal. Lynching him yesterday wasn't really about him being the most likely mafia, but rather about him being the least likely mime and narrowing down the mafia suspect pool. My strategy there was pretty much: "Who would I mind losing to the least if it turns out they're a mime?" and then trying to get that slot lynched. Because the smaller the mime pool, the more likely mafia is to hit mime. I didn't convince myself Fink couldn't be mime, but on the other hand his self vote instead of simply shutting up right before deadline means he's probably not the mafia, especially as there was stated intent to hammer. As mafia, Fink would have no way of knowing that Ari wasn't going to be around to vote him, and his vote on himself made it so that he might be in insta-loss territory. Therefore, almost certainly not mafia, and if he is I'm not going to feel bad if he wins the game. Further, the post you said was sketchy actually makes perfect sense from town headspace Fink.

He *could* be the mime, but I already resigned myself to losing the game in the case that he is, either through a happily ever after or through lynching him yesterday.

This, btw, was my saved post.
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Post Post #1144 (isolation #149) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:30 pm

Post by Jingle »

Fair point, in that if you're town and Fink is mafia I'm wrong in my reasoning. If you're town and Fink is mime then my reasoning is solid and the gamesolve is that IV is Thor's partner. If I'm wrong in my PoE I'm pretty sure it's between you and Fink anyway, and we can burn that bridge if we don't get locked into HEA. I don't see a world in which IV is town. My hope is that Occam's razor is right and Thor isn't shooting IV because IV is mafia, in which case I really don't care which one of you is mime. But the first step to solving that is to lynch Thor or no lynch.

I honestly don't see a situation where I end up having to choose between the two of you outside of functional LYLO, though, so it's fairly academic unless we hit functional LYLO.

BTW, Thor aggressively doesn't want a 3v1v1 LYLO because it massively reduces his chances for a win. Mafia not only have to lynch town in the 3v1v1, they then have to duck the watcher guilty while killing the mime and survive the ensuing LYLO w/ a conftown.
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Post Post #1149 (isolation #150) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:50 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1145, Thor665 wrote:
In post 1135, Jingle wrote:Compare that to the No Lynch, where in all likelihood Thor actually just shoots Eragon because it removes the possibility of an unfavorable LYLO in exchange for a very slightly increased chance at a draw.
:lol:
I need Eragon alive to help me catch Mime - my path to victory is shoot Mime (or be blocked by Mime and shoot him eventually), after Mime death i get lynched, then (and only then) have my partner shoot Eragon, and then win via lylo.
Please make sure you understand that.
Point. I'm not sure why, but I was thinking there was some utility in killing the watcher then the mime for a minute there. Still irrelevant to: Lynching thor means the mime has to use their power in the way both most likely to out them to town AND most likely to give town the advantage, while not lynching makes mafia the single faction most likely to win the game, despite there still being a large chance of a forced HEA.
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Post Post #1150 (isolation #151) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1148, Kmd4390 wrote:
Innocentvillager is being prodded.
This is my surprised face: :neutral:
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Post Post #1153 (isolation #152) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:30 pm

Post by Jingle »

The optimal outcome for tonight for town is a 3v1v1 with a confirmed mime and a confirmed town.
The only way to reach this optimal outcome is to lynch Thor today.

Regardless of what we do, the most likely result of our actions is a draw. I want the chance for our best chance at actually winning.
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Post Post #1156 (isolation #153) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:32 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1154, Thor665 wrote:The optimal outcome for town is to end up in 3v2 with a dead Mime and a caught scum.
But, yeah, I'm sure you know math better than I.
It's really not.

Because this is the same as a 2v1 LYLO with no conftown. Mathematically, this is equivalent to a 1v3 MYLO with a conftown.

3v1v1 with a caught mime on the other hand, has the same odds of lynching scum as said 1v3 MYLO with a conftown, and a possible mislynch outcome of a 2v1 LYLO WITH a conftown.

And, if the 3v1v1's chance at happening fails (the mime doesn't correctly guess the scum AND the scum choose not to holster their shot) then there is still the chance at a 2v1 LYLO. Which is what your "optimal result for town" is.
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Post Post #1158 (isolation #154) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:28 pm

Post by Jingle »

Okay, I'm going to remove the possibilities of really stupid scumplay for a moment here, and only cater to optimal targeting, because hoping scum is dumb enough to suboptimally target based on what I say at this point isn't worth potentially letting this opportunity slip.

Lynch Thor:

1/12 chance for Autowin because scum no shooting is incredibly dumb.
1/4 chance for 3v1v1 with no outed mime. 1/4 chance of a town win, 1/4 chance of a mimewin. Scumwin functionally impossible, because scum no shooting is actually incredibly dumb so mime KNOWS who scum is and thus can force the HEA.
2/3 chance for 2v1v1. Half of that turns into 2v1 LYLO (33% town, 66% scum) and half of that turns into HEA.

So in summary:

Town Win: 1/12+1/16+1/6 = 31.25%
Mafia Win: 2/9 = 22.2%
Mime Win: 1/16 = 6.25%
Happily Ever After: The remainder.

If we No Lynch (Logic from earlier post stands):

Town Win: 19.4%
Mafia Win: 30.6%
Mime Win: 0%
Happily Ever After: 50%

This, all in absence of reads.

If, on the other hand, both Eragon and mime can correctly figure out that I'm not scum (which, holy shit), then these numbers increase for both town and mime while decreasing for mafia in specifically the case that we lynch thor. It becomes a 50/50 between 3v1v1 (Autoloss for mafia) and 2v1v1. 1/3 of 3v1v1 scenarios become confirmed mime territory, but mime still needs to shoot for them because (and this is hilarious) MIME CAN ONLY WIN IN A 3v1v1 SCENARIO.

2v1v1 is, funnily enough, also autoloss for mafia if they shoot Eragon in this case, because the mime knows who the ramining mafia is. (Not me, not whoever they blocked the previous night.)

This obviously means mafia is going to shoot for mime, not for Eragon. Eragon still has the same pool of three people to watch in, meaning Eragon could feasibly catch the mime or the mafia (or create a 50/50 between the two.)

Therefore, not only is Lynching Thor optimal for town if we can't all decide I'm super obvtown here, but it's optimal for town if we can't.
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Post Post #1159 (isolation #155) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:29 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1157, Thor665 wrote:You're ignoring the actual likelihood of those assorted chances though.
Yes. I was. Aren't you glad I stopped long enough to actually work the math into percentages because you pissed me off by implying I'm bad at math?
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Post Post #1160 (isolation #156) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:33 pm

Post by Jingle »

Please forgive the typos in 1158.
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Post Post #1165 (isolation #157) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:20 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1163, Thor665 wrote:So, for the slow - my plan results in a town victory twice as often as Jingle's plan.
10% less as often actually.

Your plan happens in 33% of cases where we no lynch (You have a 1/3 to shoot the mime correctly, because one of the mime suspects is your partner and thus not mime). Town wins 33% of those cases. 11.1%. 11.1% of a town victory specifically through your best case scenario of a 3v2.

The 8% is specifically the odds that the 3v1v1 autowin happens. Not the odds that town wins, but the odds that town wins through that specific chance to win in my plan.

I could do this for all of the outcomes, but it makes the post really big. The combined percentages I listed are in fact the combined likelihoods of all possible outcomes leading a win by each faction and a draw, as weighted by the likelihoods of those outcomes actually happening.

If we lynch you, we have a ~31% chance of winning. If we don't, we have a ~20% chance. Not through specifically the best case scenario, but all resultant scenarios.

Keep flailing though.
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Post Post #1167 (isolation #158) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:58 am

Post by Jingle »

3v1v1 with no subjective values taken into account assuming optimal play.

5 players alive, one of which is confirmed to be town.
It is impossible to lynch the confirmed town, because to do so requires a town player to vote them violating the parameters of optimal play.

Remaining: 4 possible lynch choices, two of which are mathematically identical.

Lynch Mafia: 25% Town win.
Lynch Mime: 25% Mime win.
Lynch Town (x2): 50% Night phase: 2v1v1. Assumed HEA.

Admittedly I did some hand waving of the math for the 2v1v1, but I did so because any situation where the mime is not aware of the identity of the mafia in a 3v1v1 is predicated on the Mafia no killing, which is suboptimal play, and noted the fact that I was ignoring reads and the possibility of suboptimal play in my determination of probabilities. I can work out those numbers as well, if required, to show WHY mafia no killing is virtually game throwing, but I feel like the premise is fairly solid without a mathematical explanation.

Of course, subjective values like reads accuracy change those percentages when taken into account, but we can't use them in these determinations because they cannot be proven or disproven until the game is over, so we use random chance to model the lynches. If we ignore the information from the rest of the game the mime is actually slightly more likely to be lynched than any other player and the mafia is the least likely to be lynched (except the conftown), but the exact percentages of those likelihoods aren't something we can pin down with any degree of accuracy without running the trial experimentally repeatedly. :nerd:
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Post Post #1168 (isolation #159) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:01 am

Post by Jingle »

It's also worth noting that some of those percentages are rounded, because anything after the third significant digit really isn't relevant to the conversation. Mafia win was 22.2 repeating, if I recall correctly, but there's functionally no difference there and it's just not worth the trouble.
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Post Post #1170 (isolation #160) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:30 am

Post by Jingle »

You realize that if we lynch both mafia the mime is endgamed, right?
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Post Post #1171 (isolation #161) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:32 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 386, Jingle wrote:Okay, I can't remember and it isn't made explicit in this game's OP, so I'll ask here.

@mod: Do Mimes endgame town if both mafia and the vig die? If not, what is the resolution?


Town would win in that case.
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Post Post #1173 (isolation #162) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:13 am

Post by Jingle »

But we don't need the mime to lynch in 3v1v1. We need the mime to lynch in 3v2v1. Which they will do, because it is conveniently the only way to reach 3v1v1 which is the only way the mime even has that 6% chance at a win.

In 3v1v1, a town consensus is enough.
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Post Post #1175 (isolation #163) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Jingle »

Do you read my posts?
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #164) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:22 am

Post by Jingle »

Summary of 1158:

Lynching Thor gives us a 31.25% chance of a town win.
No Lynching gives us a 19.4% chance of a town win.

This is based entirely on objective math. Provable math. If you want me to explain why it's true, say so. If you're having trouble understanding the premise, say so. Just saying "It can't happen" and handwaiving away the posts I make where I prove that it can is entirely useless.
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Post Post #1179 (isolation #165) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by Jingle »

It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.
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Post Post #1180 (isolation #166) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Jingle »

Unless you want me to consider the odds that you or your partner gets shot by mafia.
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #167) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by Jingle »

If you're legitimately unable to play you should always replace out. If you can play stay in. As simple as that.

Basically, where we're at is that we should lynch thor, it's optimal play for mime to target in {you, Fink, GL} and it's optimal play for mafia to shoot whichever one of those three is their strongest mime read, assuming everyone agrees that I'm functionally confirmed town for dropping the mime wincon to 6% and arguing tooth and nail for the strategy with the best antimafia odds since yesterday.

If we can't all agree that I'm functionally conftown, mime should target in the same pool plus me, but mafia should be shooting at Eragon.
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Post Post #1183 (isolation #168) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:09 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1179, Jingle wrote:It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.
I guess the scenario in which mime roleblocks you tonight would also count, but again, that requires gamethrowing, so...
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Post Post #1187 (isolation #169) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:24 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1185, Eragon wrote:At least I’m done with this game

@mafia if you leave me alive I kingmake you over mime every time
If mime realizes I’m town then you’re still alive literally 50% of the time.

Target in your mafia pool. Which hopefully doesn’t include me, to increase the chances of auto win.
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Post Post #1188 (isolation #170) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1182, Jingle wrote:I'm functionally conftown
FWIW, if you suspect me to be mime it doesn't change the strategies away from what I described. It only matters whether anyone (the mime) actually believes I can be mafia at this point.
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Post Post #1190 (isolation #171) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:47 am

Post by Jingle »

Eragon, Mime, target for mafia.
Mafia, target for Eragon or mime, depending on whether you believe the mime believes me to be conftown.

Everyone, please tell KMD to shorten the nightphase so this game can end sooner.
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Post Post #1193 (isolation #172) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Jingle »

Oh, cool. Happily ever after. VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1195 (isolation #173) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Jingle »

Theoretically, if the mime thinks I’m mafia they could block me instead of the mafia and get nightkilled. Otherwise there is no way for anyone to win and it’s a draw. Regardless we vote Thor today.
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Post Post #1196 (isolation #174) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Jingle »

BSically vote Thor, there’s no point in putting it off
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #175) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:05 am

Post by Jingle »

Thor, you mind self voting to get the inevitability started?

I'd rather this go faster than slower and there's no way you're not the lynch today.
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Post Post #1202 (isolation #176) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:22 am

Post by Jingle »

Le sigh.
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Post Post #1203 (isolation #177) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:23 am

Post by Jingle »

I could go into how not voting you is literally gamethrowing for any faction other than yours, but honestly, I just don't care anymore.
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Post Post #1205 (isolation #178) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:32 am

Post by Jingle »

Pfft. I successfully screwed one scumteam the day I replaced in, and very narrowly failed to screw yours completely yesterday. Just because I made the game into a boring mass of shit doesn't mean I was gamethrowing.
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Post Post #1207 (isolation #179) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:21 am

Post by Jingle »

If we lynch Thor we draw 99% of the time. There is a tiny, little chance that we move to a three person lylo with you, me and the mafia.
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Post Post #1208 (isolation #180) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:23 am

Post by Jingle »

Otherwise, mafia wins right now.
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Post Post #1210 (isolation #181) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 am

Post by Jingle »

Which makes the mafia wincondition impossible to achieve, thus the same happily ever after that we're already expecting.
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #182) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:08 am

Post by Jingle »

I agree that no lynching wins you the game.

Glad we're on the same page.
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Post Post #1215 (isolation #183) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:29 pm

Post by Jingle »

I mean... I’m not confirmed. Your partner could try to lynch me in a 3p lylo. But yeah, pretty much just call it a draw if I succeed in lynching you.
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Post Post #1217 (isolation #184) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Jingle »

He watched Thor. No one targeted Thor. Or he targeted no one. And no one targeted Thor.
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #185) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:43 pm

Post by Jingle »

Seriously, vote Thor. Not voting Thor is a mafia claim.
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Post Post #1220 (isolation #186) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:45 pm

Post by Jingle »

Btw, mime should have targeted Thor last night.
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Post Post #1223 (isolation #187) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:22 pm

Post by Jingle »

I'm like 90% certain that it's GL Mime and IV Mafia. I can't see Thor not shooting IV before now if he's the mime.

Also, Eragon, you should totally agree to holster your shot tonight if the mafia shoot for the mime. It's the only way either mafia or town has a chance at outright winning after lynching Thor.

Also, GL should vote Thor.
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Post Post #1225 (isolation #188) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:54 am

Post by Jingle »

Your watch.
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Post Post #1226 (isolation #189) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:57 am

Post by Jingle »

VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1228 (isolation #190) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:16 pm

Post by Jingle »

A vote for Thor is a vote for this game not taking another month.

VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1230 (isolation #191) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:13 am

Post by Jingle »

A vote for thor is a president who will murder vigilantes in the middle of the night and shoot wildly into crowds of people hoping to kill mimes. Viva le France!

VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1231 (isolation #192) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 7:13 am

Post by Jingle »

is a vote for*
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Post Post #1233 (isolation #193) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:25 am

Post by Jingle »

Which is silly, because they outright lose if they don't.

Compared to the chance that town will choose to give them the Kingmaker based on play or the even greater chance of it being a happily ever after.

@
GuiltyLion
Mime- Not only is voting Thor the only way you can possibly win or draw, it isn't even a mime claim. If the mafia somehow get to the LYLO, they also have to pretend to be town to be able to try to convince Eragon (Seemingly the only person in the history of the world who isn't outright townreading me) to vote with them instead of against them.
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Post Post #1234 (isolation #194) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:26 am

Post by Jingle »

If Thor wins this by running down the clock on a No Lynch I'm going to run screaming headfirst into a wall repeatedly, then nominate him for a scummy.
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Post Post #1236 (isolation #195) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:00 pm

Post by Jingle »

I promise not to believe whoever hammers is mafia until at least daybreak.
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Post Post #1238 (isolation #196) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:41 pm

Post by Jingle »

I too will agree not to watch anyone if mafia doesn't kill me.
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Post Post #1239 (isolation #197) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:42 pm

Post by Jingle »

Thor, hbu? Will you watch anyone if mafia doesn't kill you?
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Post Post #1245 (isolation #198) » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:47 am

Post by Jingle »

Hey. That’s real dumb, but okay.

We have a 1v1v1.

I’m not going to kingmaker either faction. Unless either of you intends to lose to let the other (or me!) win then we should probably all just send kmd pms telling him to call it.
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Post Post #1246 (isolation #199) » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:53 am

Post by Jingle »

Here’s why, btw. If mime isn’t actively gamethrowing, they targeted me last night. Which means they know I’m town. Mafia can never kill successfully again. Mafia wants to lynch me. If we lynch me, me and mime lose. Mime wants to be lynched if we lynch mime, mafia and mime lose. I want to lynch mafia. If we lynch mafia, mime and mafia lose. Therefore it is impossible to win for any faction, because no faction can lynch and the mime should know for certain who is scum.
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