Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[UnaBombaH]

Dave+reundo?
I'll read with that in mind tomorrow.

[nonny]

At this point I’m exchausted readying all this and want to see a post form Dave, a real post from reundo, and una’s promised post work post.

Una is town to me the remain 4 are fuzzy. And I want more from the quiet ones.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I have a question Tchill, can you explain what you think happened on night 2? Did the scumteam know about Gamma through a rolecop or was he killed purely for the sake of WIFOM to frame the PR claims?

[The Mighty Ducks]

vote count 4.02

nonny

(0) :

UnaBombaH

(0):

davesaz

(0) :

Completly Trustworthy

(0) :

Reundo

(0) :

Tchill13

(0) :

not voting:

nonny, UnaBombaH, davesaz, Reundo, Tchill13, Completly Trustworthy

with 6 duckies alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

day three will end with no lynch in (expired on 2018-10-27 10:30:00)

mod notes:
- quack

[Tchill13]

I have a question Tchill, can you explain what you think happened on night 2? Did the scumteam know about Gamma through a rolecop or was he killed purely for the sake of WIFOM to frame the PR claims?

You don't get to ask questions until you give answers. Stop side stepping.

[Tchill13]

The role cop would have had to have hit gamma night 1. Which isn't impossible but they had an equal chance of hitting anybody else.

Idk what happened n2. To me what happened last night phase is much more important.

Boon can claim 3 times in one game as a VT. So as scum I wouldn't be worried about a boon claim.

Had YOU NOT FAKE CLAIMED this wouldn't be an issue at all in my book. So I appreciate you causing nothing but confusion.

Don't ask me to explain situations involving your selfish acts. That's not on me. That's your fault.

[Tchill13]

If I was scum you would have been killed immediately. The only reason I can think of as to why they didn't do that is scum already decided Dave's fake claim would have been a loud doc. Had they killed the doc they would have had to find something dii.

Even then they could have held out until lylo then cc'd you.

That's my point though. If Dave really was a doctor and didn't want to outright CC you, don't you think he would have aggressively, consistently pushed you?

You're going to give him a pass for not CC'ing a fake claim when he could have had scum dead to rights?

[Tchill13]

Not only have you fake claimed due to ego but now you refuse to change your mind.

CT has egotistical town written all over him una.

[Tchill13]

Also, I claim even night doctor.

I've had my butt kicked this week by work and family obligations. It's lurking by the "not posting much" standard, but not by the "choosing to let the thread slip by as long as you can" standard. Don't make me break out the huge text that says I don't lie about RL stuff.

FL points out that I switched off Profii -- hardly surprising for someone who loathes lynching claimed PRs when there isn't anything suggesting it's fake.
Even night doc in a game with a novice vig? I'd call that one about 2/3 likely to be town but yeah scum is a possibility.
If there is a(nother) doc, especially modified like n-shot or odd night,

don't counter

. I was just in a game with an even/odd pair of the same role.
I think this is trying to solve the game Flavor Leaf. I believe I've seen scum FL fake that but I'm inclined to TR it with so many in the game who know him.
Kinda happy we don't have the gambit multiple times in one game FL. Or at least I hope we don't.
Gonna need to re-read stuff, I caught up quickly given the short deadline, now need to do it slowly.

Going mostly from memory because I didn't get time to do that deep re-read, and most of this is low quality unless stated otherwise.

nonny - lurker
FA_Q2 - weak scum
Unabombah - saw a couple things I thought probably came from town
davesaz - role pm says town
Completly Trustworthy - Doesn't seem to be stretching for scumreads quite as much as the last game we played together, probably town
TheHolySpirit - I copied and pasted the list from the OP and when I got to this one I went WTF? Is this player even in the game? replace by someone? I don't want to open another tab so I'll figure out where the issue was later.
Reundo - lurker and scummy
Flavor Leaf - town for the gambit
Carcalilly - vengeful claim, don't have an independent read on the slot
Tchill13 - isn't doing the normal leaping about and jumping to conclusions that I normally scumread him for when he's town. I see the post explaining that. I think I'll wait for some replies to decide
wilky - dunno, scum side of null I think

Somethings's wrong with my list because too many of the possible scum are lurkers.

A very "aware" notion imo.. while good, I havent seen anything like this from you ever before, so feels a bit weird though?

But I'll try to turn this into a question now -

in this specific game, don't you think we could actually, for once, have a full lurkerteam of scum?

I have my own thoughts on this, and will share them in full if dave first gives his in-depth answer..

I think I question my own reads often, if that’s what you’re talking about in the first part.

It’s seeming more likely that at least 2 scum are lurking. We don’t see anywhere near as much agenda pushing as normal imo. No time for a wagon switch, my candidates for venge if it’s real would be nonny and wilky I think.

VOTE: carcalilly

Work day don’t know if I’ll be back before eod.

vote count 2.11

nonny

(0) :

FA_Q2

(1) : Gamma Emerald,

UnaBombaH

(0):

davesaz

(0) :

Completly Trustworthy

(0) :

Gamma Emerald

(0) :

Reundo

(0) :

Flavor Leaf

(0) :

Carcalilly

(6) : FA_Q2, wilky, Tchill13, davesaz, Completly Trustworthy, Flavor Leaf, UnaBombaH

Tchill13

(0) :

wilky

(1) : Reundo

not voting:

nonny, Carcalilly

with 11 duckies alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

day two will end with no lynch in (expired on 2018-10-09 09:00:00)

mod notes:
- wilky v/la until 8/10/2018
- quack

dave actually seems to hard TR CT when he claims doc.

Dave wants carca, wilky and nonny dead. He SR'd FA and Reundo but said wilky and nonny should be venged.

This is a scum claim imo. Someone has claimed a variant of your role. You TR them for it.. Then 2/3 ppl you choose to put up for death are conftown as of this moment.

let me check one more thing.

[Tchill13]

I have a confession to make Unabombah. I'm a vanilla townie, not a PR. I'm admitting this now because I feel like its unlikely I'll be nightkilled soon and the chance of accidentally outing a PR is too high at this moment. Also, I feel like the scum may try to push me now due to my claim being uncomfirmable, so its better to come clean now rather than later. Around the time when my wagon was forming, I started to feel frustrated because so many people seemed to be suspicious of me and all of those on my wagon were trusted more than me. Also, I had seen Flavor's quickhammer earlier and had a game recently where every day phase ended with a quickhammer, so the risk of that was on my mind. I started to believe my lynch was almost impossible to avoid and thus tried to get attention off me so a member of the scumteam could hopefully get lynched instead and end up killed at night instead of an actual PR. I chose doctor to claim because I know actual doctors try to avoid claiming at all costs and figured there probably wasn't one in the game due to Profii dying N1 and three PR's being outed around that point (vengeful, vigilante, investigative). That meant there was likely only one, perhaps two PR's remaining. I figured that since strongman is uncommon to see in mini normal, that mean a doctor capable of acting N1 wasn't in this game. I've rarely seen even night or novice doctors, so I thought it was likely I wouldn't be cc'd if I said that or they would wait until later to try and get me lynched. My plan was either to get saved by another protective and then argue I was targeted or die off without my lie hurting anyone. Gamma's death threw a wrench in my plans because I didn't anticipate that at all. It was why I wanted to figure out what scum power roles there were, I wished to understand why they felt comfortable leaving two PR claims alive. I know all this may be hard to believe, but we have more than six days to talk, its best to make the most of it. In retrospect, this gambit was a bad idea, and I won't be trying anything like this again anytime soon.

CT's assumption that scum knew Gamma's role is horrible. We have no information suggesting that's the case, and it's a totally valid strategy to kill someone who is townread. FL carried some scum equity from the gamibt so if he's town I could see scum leaving him alive. I'm very much a possible ML target for lurking so scum have no reason to kill me. Lurkers in general are ML targets if they're town, so leave out Reundo and Nonny too. Once you start identifying kills that are potentially worse than Gamma, the more it seems unlikely that scum knew his role and more likely he was just a priority to NK because there are better mislynches available.

What would take more reading would be finding out

why

CT's making that assumption. The stated reasons don't make a lot of sense to me.

I do dig the idea of VT trying to draw a nk for a possible watcher / tracker. And claiming to attempt to avoid lynch is something that I can see fitting CT's apparent personality from the previous game. So if the even night doc -> VT claim is real it's likely to be town motivation. Not enough to conftown but likely.

I don't really understand how FA is forming their reads. For instance, they initially said I was null in 462. Then they said that it was suspicious that I was still alive in 577. However, explanations were eventually offered for that.

There was a lot more than just you staying alive that was at issue. Your claim, retracting it and most of your 'reasons' you gave around all this are scummy.

Now I don't get why they are so confident that I am scum and not null. Also, their read of Una is confusing. They claimed they didn't like 498, but I don't really see anything scummy in that and Una addressed it. Also, they said it was scummy that I wasn't being pushed on surviving the night(even thought I think I was), then claimed one of the people pushing me was a teammate. Basically, they claimed that the scum were simultaneously distancing themselves from me and trying to keep the attention off me, it just doesn't make much sense.

That post screams scummy to me. There is no real town reason to do it. it is just to out of place. Una's recent posts have thrown me a bit though.[/quote]

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

FA doesn't seem to be following through on anything.

Like?

Dave.....


I mean, it is awfully ironic that your shade on me was not following through and here you are, not following through.

VOTE: Completly Trustworthy

so dave begins to TR CT EVEN MORE after CT admits he lied lmao.... gotta love rewarding toxic habits. Anybody think Dave pocketed CT this whole game?

the thing i noticed is FA talks to Dave and CT in his last few posts. i doubt scum would be brazen enough to distance from BOTH of their partners before flipping.

[Tchill13]

either way its evident that dave was determined to TR CT regardless of what he did. Take that for what you will.

[Tchill13]

CT's assumption that scum knew Gamma's role is horrible. We have no information suggesting that's the case, and it's a totally valid strategy to kill someone who is townread. FL carried some scum equity from the gamibt so if he's town I could see scum leaving him alive. I'm very much a possible ML target for lurking so scum have no reason to kill me. Lurkers in general are ML targets if they're town, so leave out Reundo and Nonny too. Once you start identifying kills that are potentially worse than Gamma, the more it seems unlikely that scum knew his role and more likely he was just a priority to NK because there are better mislynches available.

What would take more reading would be finding out

why

CT's making that assumption. The stated reasons don't make a lot of sense to me.

I do dig the idea of VT trying to draw a nk for a possible watcher / tracker. And claiming to attempt to avoid lynch is something that I can see fitting CT's apparent personality from the previous game. So if the even night doc -> VT claim is real it's likely to be town motivation. Not enough to conftown but likely.

umm thats an explanation of the NK right there. Plus he argues the existence of a role cop, which boon and i believe Dave might be, Dave calls himself Mislynchable ALONG WITH REUNDO and nonny.

[davesaz]

I'll do the bit that requires some external links first. I'm no stranger to games where there are two town players

claiming

the same role.
NY 215 - I'm a claimed odd night vig, there is an even night vig who

doesn't counter claim

.
Fallout Commonwealth - I'm a miller, Wilky is also a miller, we don't treat each other as counter claims. Even with several players yelling that one of us has to be scum.

Yes, I tried to save FL.
Whomever FL visited is scum.

Clearly scum think I'm lynchable.
Have a look at my lynched / NK'd ratio and it's crystal clear. I don't actually keep track of it (too depressing) but I wouldn't be surprised if it's 3:1 or higher.

FL said outside the box.
Boxes are square.
Reundo sounds like round, which is outside the box. That's my best guess on the crumb.
I'm out of shots which makes it mylo unless we have another role. I think it's unlikely we do given balance considerations. In retrospect maybe I should have kept the shot.

[Tchill13]

So I should cast my vote thinking that scum either targeted flavor pt they just didn't kill correct?

[Tchill13]

I'm not even questioning the existence of 2 doc claims (which is incredibly stupid imo)

But all you explained is your lack of push. You never explained why you TR'd for the fake claim, then TR'd for the retraction.

You don't explain why I should believe that scum are incredibly stupid or incredibly smart here.

[davesaz]

At the point of the (now known to be fake) claim, I believed it and TR'd it because I tend to believe claims in the absence of evidence to the contrary. It's hard to be totally certain unless I left notes, but I think I TR'd CT off meta before the claim.

At the point of the retraction I didn't see a scum motivation .

The real question should be what do I think of it now. Is there now a possible scum motivation for CT having retracted his claim? Yes, I think my original assessment of the retraction might have been wrong. Maybe scum!CT did have a good reason for retracting the claim. Docs that live tend to be questioned on why they live. I'd need to read it again to see if there are additional things to see there.

I don't know how to answer the smart vs stupid question other than to say I hope they don't succeed in manipulating you into voting me.

[nonny]

Seems like Dave, CT, and Tchill(?) are still questionable. Question mark only becuase the only Tchill SR I recall came from CT and Tchill saying Una has an SR on him.

Is there any debate that this stage on reundo? Haven’t really seen any TR or debate about the read on him.

[davesaz]

Tchill could be scum trying to manipulate town into mislynching me, if he isn’t the one being manipulated by events.

[Tchill13]

Nonny please take some stances of your own. Geez.

Dave, I've already brought up the fact CT retracting his fake claim was problematic. You seemed to town clear him at the moment.

Now you're gonna walk that back and SR him because you have to if you want to win the game as scum.

Dave is scum ppl. Don't make this more difficult than it has to be. There is no manipulation going on. Nobody protected flavor. Flavor was simply shot by scum. It's not hard ppl.

You, your mother, and your mother's mother can blame me if town loses here because Dave is town.

[Tchill13]

What's more likely out of the 3

Scum shot boon when Dave said he was gonna protect him anyway.

Scum didn't shoot anyone in an attempt to create wifom.

The claimed doctor is actually scum, which means boon wasn't protected and that scum shot him. Since boon had already claimed weak visitor scum knew they would be able to hide behind "I protected boon but boon visited scum"

Whats the most likely scenario people?

[nonny]

I have made my stances. I’m not going to continue to post 40 more posts. I prefer to keep asking questions to see where others heads are to continue narrowing the field. You choosing not to answer the questions just keeps making it difficult to sort. I doubt scum would do such a long diatribes to get one person lynched when there are much easier lynches around. I’m down to CT, Dave, and reundo. But with less to look at from the former two this game day I’m resorting to questions to see associations. You can look at as me trying to steal others stances if you like but this is how I sort:

[Reundo]

I'm having doubts that davesaz is town. At first I thought he leaned town because he'd have to consistently crumb his role, but then I realized if he was a loud mafia role then he'd be forced to claim eventually anyways. With the recent 2-shot roleblocker flip I wouldn't be surprised if there were two 2-shot scum PRs, maybe even 3 but that might be a stretch. I don't think it's useful to try to view the kill from a WIFOM perspective. I could see scum no-killing and hope Flavor targets scum (or maybe even trying to kill Flavor and hoping davesaz overthinks it and tries to save someone else), but there's also the risk of him targeting town and clearing someone, so overall it doesn't seem like the best play for scum.

Dave's entrance into D4 is also really weird. He seems far too eager to explain himself and doesn't give his take on what the heck actually happened if Flavor actually was killed. Also, his convoluted reasoning for painting me as the visit is probably one of the worst things I've read this game, and that's including the bazillion times Tchill couldn't even remember who was alive or in the game (and the saying goes that squares can't fit into circles, so his whole theory was backwards to begin with). It just feels he's finding any opportunity to hop onto the scum!me trolley that's been running around recently.

Regardless of whether dave is scum, I know at least one scum is between {nonny, CT} since nonny was never quick hammered last day phase, and I'm torn for the most part. I'm kind of starting to double-think myself regarding CT. It almost feels like he knows too much about the scum team -- he cited that scum probably had both a roleblocker and a ninja, and they ended up having both. He does consistently push FA_Q2 but he also doesn't vote him, and if he is scum then he'd know that pulling off a nonny lynch would've sealed the game for him, but if the pair was FA/CT, then why wouldn't FA try to help to push it along? The team would seem pretty disorganized, especially considering they had daychat. But then again there's CT whole doctor gambit, and while I could a world where he'd want to do it as town there's no questioning that his doctor claim saved him D2, and as town he should've have prioritized him living over lying about his role and trying to outguess scum. A lot of his play has been consistently towny, but just taking a skim through his last scum game I feel he's more than capable of faking it, though I'd probably have to read it more indepth at a later time.

On the other hand, I feel there's a lot of classic scum distancing between FA_Q2 and nonny. FA hardly mentions nonny at all or even engages with her. Nonny has been consistently town-reading FA_Q2, but there's basically no explanation as to why. Not once in her catch-up post does she reference FA's posts, yet at the end of it she town-reads him because "his posts tend to align with what I see"... but if that was the case, then why wouldn't she include any of this in her catch-up? It just doesn't make any sense to me. On the other hand, she's been consistently dumb-telling this game, and some of the tells would suggest she'd be town (such as her being unsure if there were 3 scum in a 13 player game), but she could easily be playing dumb on purpose. As a whole she's been much too complacent with game-solving.

Dave fake-claiming doctor and killing Flavor is the most straightforward explanation for what happened last night, so that's the one I'm leaning towards the most. Still, if he is fake-claiming, that would mean there's no town protective unless one's hiding, which would be a bit weird but it could make sense with a vig in the game. I just can't make sense of the night kill any other way. I think nonny and CT could both be valid partners with dave, but nonny has more cohesion overall since they both push the same reads for the most part. If I had to call a team right now I'd say nonny/dave/FA, but there's a lot of little things that irk me about CT that bring me doubt.

I know I haven't been pulling my weight this game, and I get why people are scum-reading me. Tchill is my strongest town-read atm and Una is a town-lean, but I'm still trying to resort everyone else for the time being. I probably won't have the time to dedicate to this game until Monday/Tuesday, but I'll try my hardest to keep up.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I'm abandoning the no kill theory for now. I initially thought the scumteam might have included someone who figured out what Flavor's crumb meant and therefore knew that he was probably visiting scum. Since nobody, even Una, is entirely sure what Flavor meant at this point, I think that's unlikely now. So at this point, I think there are two real possibilities. Dave is scum or the scumteam have a second power role.

Dave, why did you select Wilky and Nonny as vengekill targets in 491?

[nonny]

Reundo: saying I’m scum becuase I wasn’t quick hammere is an easy out. The most I got to (official vote count wise) was L-3, so where would the quick hammer even come from?
I personally don’t like to just include a post I flat out agree with, it’s lazy and not helpful. Before my catch up I had already reference FA’s post in day 2 (on day 2) that I agreed with. I have not played a 13 player game since hiatus and didn’t think about the set up, that’s also what happened when I thought I was L-1 day one. Read as a gambit if you want but this game is making me feel dumb and inadequate *shrug* I am legitimately trying to do my best and did flake a little previous days becuase it got overwhelming. I regardless do not post every little thing I think, maybe that’s not best practice but that’s me.

Your post is not overtly scummy, I still am on fence if your tunnel day 1-3 was scum being lazy or town thinking they’d figured it out.

I agree the most likely night action from scum was a kill.

Dave did you ever say who you target? I’ll go back and look Incase I missed it:

[UnaBombaH]

I agree the most likely night action from scum was a kill.

I doubt anyone is disagreeing with this?
Even I feel certain that scum DID post a kill, but was Boon the target?
That is my question.

I've done my reading with the given mindset of dave+reundo being the scumteam.

I have no reason to think the two of them could not be the two remaining scum.

However, I ran into a twist during my reading.
I have no trouble believing CT+reundo or Chill+reundo is the team either.
I do not see an alternative for daves assumed teammate however.

Does this mean that I should consider reundo conf.scum then?