I'm not really sure why you made this post.
And, to answer the later posts about it being obvious that Alonzo did RB Preformer, yea, this post does make it obvious.
Why Irrel?
In post 2988, skitter30 wrote:so i was looking through anti's (admittedly short) iso and i noticed that he was kinda protecting sky (now performer)
more interestingly he was chainsawing sky by attacking a50 when a50 called her a traitor
he also scumread a50 for finding mwnn (not_mafia) scummy for being on vla
so overall i think this is slightly +scum for performer
i haven't gone through bujaber's iso yet
Tbf, I also agreed that it was a bit scummy that A50 was trying to SR MWNN for being on V/LA. I consider it null, but, I'd like to see why you think that's important.
In post 2989, ruru wrote:bujaber kept defending sky's slot for being too scummy to be scum
I thought it was dubious in terms of his own alignment but I'm not sure how much that says about the slot: it might mean he was traitor-reading it (which doesn't necessarily mean it's actually traitor), it might mean he was trying to leave a weird associative (and I know bujaber likes to mess with associatives as scum), it might mean he had tmi on a townslot, etc.
And so what do you make of this?
In post 2990, skitter30 wrote:both bujaber + antihero defending sky on that basis is a little strange tho
ruru if you were scum and took only one mod, what would you take?
Ik I'm not ruru, but, daytalk. That's the lesser of the two evils for me. I'd rather be able to coordinate better than to have an extra player I'm worried about accidentally outting, plus lose out on a chance to fake attempting to SR a player, (who I thought was the traitor).
Wdym? And what do you think it means Sky was?
In post 2993, ruru wrote:do we think mwnn+antihero take daytalk though?
mwnn was busy irl, antihero was either busy or stopped wanting to play the game because his partner was afk (doesn't seem too unlikely, I've experienced that feeling)
I feel like that's not a pair that values daytalk above giving town a pr
If MWNN was active
before
the game started, I think daytalk is viable, (assuming the IRL stuff was emergency).
However, I don't really feel like that's the case, and I feel like they took recruited traitor. We know that it can't be {Recruited Traitor + Anything Else} only because we have 3 TPRs.
In post 2999, ruru wrote:does it even matter what order we lynch in
I guess it does, if scum want to nk then we get an inno on someone in the scumpool
so I guess theoretically we should lynch whoever is least useful to gamesolving? which is probably performer since he hasn't read the game
but then there's also that irrel is the player I'm most worried about convincing everyone he's town after I'm shot, and I'm also scumreading him most
I don't think it matters who we lynch first.
I also think that between all the scummy players, that smart-scum would want to leave them alive to draw suspicion off of them. I think {You, Alonzo, Me, Skitter} would certainly get NK'd before {Preformer, Irrel} do, only because our flips don't really confirm a whole lot.
In post 3000, ruru wrote:so, the thing I thought was a traitor-or-town-slip could also come from recruited traitor
after rereading it I'm actually not sure I believe groupscum wouldn't write it anymore (mostly because in his 2nd post he's talking about a pair, he never really heavily implied 3 people were involved in the decision)
I still think the siteflake is a serious towntell though
Is this from MWNN? If so, I don't really see it as AI.
In post 3002, ruru wrote:also performer's felt pretty present and bold for a scum replace-in and his scum meta is lurky
Once again, he hasn't played in 2 years. Does that change anything?
I feel like there's the possibility that he purposefully did try that only to throw us off of his meta.
Alright, added you to my foes list. :^)
In post 3008, Performer wrote:
I agree with this, as he was also roleblocked on n2. So, rb on n2 & bujaber's ending vote on enigma, make it likelier enig is town.
@alonzo I can't target anyone , I'm a vt.
In post 2999, ruru wrote:does it even matter what order we lynch in
I guess it does, if scum want to nk then we get an inno on someone in the scumpool
so I guess theoretically we should lynch whoever is least useful to gamesolving? which is probably performer since he hasn't read the game
but then there's also that irrel is the player I'm most worried about convincing everyone he's town after I'm shot, and I'm also scumreading him most
Have you been paying attention? I actually have caught up with a lot of the game & read the ISOs. I'm starting to doubt you're town here, due to no nk from n3 & that you suggested this extremely horrible reasoning for lynching.
So you think Scum!Ruru decided to risk faking TPR for what reason? I'm not seeing why Scum!Ruru would want to when she was already getting TR'd.
In post 3010, Irrelephant11 wrote:Just to make sure it's said, ruru can mechanically be the traitor here, and we shouldn't forget that.
We're just waiting on Alonzo at this point I'm guessing?
How can Ruru be traitor here? I'm not really seeing it. Why would Ruru not nightkill anyone last night? Ruru is the last person who would've gotten RB'd, and Ruru could've easily gotten rid of someone else, (namely me or Skitter), so Ruru deciding to not NK for gambit doesn't really make sense to me.
In post 3011, Performer wrote: In post 3006, Irrelephant11 wrote:VOTE: Performer
I've detailed why I think tw/sky make sense as the traitor to BuJ's groupscum, & Performer is literally playing to his scum meta imo
I don't know what the first part is about, but the latter is a terribly huge reach of an accusation.
Waiting on Korina to catch up & provide thoughts . We got plenty of time here so no need to rush things.
Fos: ruru for the aforementioned.
If ruru is somehow town though, she needs to keep bg on alonzo the rest of the game. This is a good situation of 1v6 because we should have a good chance at winning here.
If there are continued no kills, no lynch could be considered the following day in the future. Continued nights without kills, also increases suspicion of ruru.
1) BG!Ruru has to be on Alonzo, otherwise its throwing. Scum!Ruru can't kill Alonzo, because its throwing.
2) Once again, why would Scum!Ruru refuse to kill here when there are targets that don't reveal a whole lot, and Ruru isn't going to get RB'd in the first place, because that'd mean if Ruru is Town, and Alonzo is Town, he just threw the game?
In post 3014, Alonzo wrote:FMPOV we should nolynch this out, I could then Pick either the same target as last night or a different player and see the results then.
Im not 100% sure Scum didn't no kill last night to force a mislynch today. I'd like to run it twice.
Alright, apart from that, who do you think is the scummiest rn?
In post 3017, skitter30 wrote: In post 3003, Enigma wrote:Now these were the two slots that got to decide on the mods, keeping in mind that they do/did not know who the traitor is/was pregame.
Why would they give scum PR mods to the traitor rather than themselves? BP/JOAT/RC is useless for traitor as a single mod
.
we technically could have lynched a recruited traitor; they flip as mafia goon
i think the bolded is lowkey a townslip because he doesn't seem to know how giving out mods work (ie who gets the mods amongst goons is randomized; scum don't get to choose)
Ngl, on inital read, I thought this was a scumslip, but then I realized that Ruru has played these setups before and would know that.
In post 3025, Performer wrote:Skitter’s post about irrel yesterday – exactly, irrel's behavior at eod 3 was suspicious as I called attention to it as well yesterday .
night action summary, more for future reference than anything else:
Ruru no bg on n1 & n2, bg on alonzo n3, bg alonzo n4
Alonzo rb enigma n2, rb me n3, rb ? n4
The problem with this is if alonzo switches to another person &
suddenly there’s an nk, then people will think I did the kill. Essentially scum is framing me
. This along with irrel’s hilarious accusation, actually makes me more convinced on irrel & outer chance of Korina, with fos of ruru.
Another problem is if he switches onto someone else and there is still no kill, that’s alarming too…because what if scum just keep no killing to frame people?
The good thing is even if we go 7-5-3 from d4 to d6, with poe we should be able to ultimately win this. Of course, this heavily relies on if ruru & alonzo have been telling the truth.
I don’t see a no lynch helping us more than a lynch does, for this phase.
Here's the thing: If I'm scum, I'd have tried to kill Alonzo, but most likely flipped Ruru instead. I wouldn't have holstered. I don't think I would've gotten RB'd, and if someone gets confirmed, guess what? They just die next.
Why do you think scum would frame you in this case as well?
Wdym?
In post 3031, Performer wrote:It's obvious that Alonzo targeted me regardless of if he gave a straight answer. Anybody could tell from his reply, though I'm still town .
If I'm somehow the lynch today, lynch irrel tomorrow.
Still , waiting on Korina before voting.
Yea, that seems to be the general consensus.
Why?
In post 3035, ruru wrote:I mean if scum is in {you, enigma, performer} then lynching those three wins the game even if alonzo literally goes afk
skitter is 99% town
korina is 95% town
if alonzo is scum he gamethrew
if I'm scum I gamethrew
I get how Alonzo going afk is a throw, however, how do you throw in this situation? I'm not seeing it.
In post 3036, Irrelephant11 wrote:yes hello
@game
I'm not scum so if you're just settled on me at least do some work to sort for tomorrow's lynch. I would've shot last night, btw. There were good odds I'd be targeted based on what people told Alonzo to do, so what would be the point in holstering?
Anyway, performer slot case incoming
See, I agree on this post. Nobody really has any reason to try to holster, unless they really wanted to try to gambit it out, but even then, that's a huge risk on them.
In post 3038, Performer wrote: In post 3036, Irrelephant11 wrote:yes hello
@game
I'm not scum so if you're just settled on me at least do some work to sort for tomorrow's lynch. I would've shot last night, btw. There were good odds I'd be targeted based on what people told Alonzo to do, so what would be the point in holstering?
Anyway, performer slot case incoming
Honestly if we're both town....then......someone like Korina or one of the prs, have fake claimed.
Thing is, I would've shot last night too if I was scum.
Starting to wonder if really should no lynch in this case, though I suggested no lynch is better in a future phase.
I explained that I was considering fakeclaiming TPR to draw away a NK from the actual TPRs. Why would Scum!Me try to pull the same logic and gambit it out when I'd be putting my team down a member, and hurting them horribly if it backfired? Town!Me would certainly gambit that, only because my death doesn't really matter a whole lot—I drew away the NK which was my goal. ReasonableTown!Me wouldn't, only because I know that hurts Town more than it helps.
In post 3049, Irrelephant11 wrote: In post 3047, Performer wrote:Maybe tw played with buj in the past so he called him a friend. But yeah, point is obviously
we can go speculate about what anti said about sky, or what tw did and the meaning of his posts,
but I wouldn't know why the two of them played like that. Clearly those 2 have different playstyles.
I mean I'm not asking *you* to *speculate* about your preds, I'm asking everyone else to evaluate your slot.
I'll get to it in a bit.
In post 3050, skitter30 wrote: In post 1200, Almost50 wrote: In post 1198, BuJaber wrote:The only thing we know now that we didn't know before the game started is that creature is IC and therefore scum didn't pick 0 powers, they picked at least 1.
False assumption (Coming from BuJ I'd say it might be a Town slip, but don't quote me on that just yet.)
Town start with 2 PRs, then gain an additional one for every modification the scum pick.
This means we have at least one other TPR in addition to Creature if the scum team is 2 Goons + a Traitor with no daychat. If they picked one modification then we have 2 more TPRs in addition to Creature. If they picked two modification we have 4 TPRs in total, and if they picked 3 modofication (maxed out) we would have FIVE TPRs.
so i was looking at the tail-end of a50's iso and found this post
it looks like bujaber thinks here that town started at 0 powers and they get one pr for each mod scum take. and he says we know that scum picked at least one since creature is an ic
he's wrong at town starting at 0 powers but i think this points to him knowing that scum picked at least one (massclaim seems to indicate exactly one) which leads me to believe both pr claims are real (i mean i thought that already but this is just another piece of information pointing to that)
I agree, but a part of me keeps thinking what if he did it to try to throw us off.
Does that change anything for you if that's the case?
In post 3052, skitter30 wrote: In post 3034, Irrelephant11 wrote:If you can prove mechanically that town always wins this with me dead, and if you'll hear me out on Performer before I go, I'm still fine with that.
I have a long draft regarding Performer but I have to go afk so I'll post it & more tomorrow
you feel a little bit survivalistic to me :/
How so?
In post 3058, ruru wrote: In post 3044, Irrelephant11 wrote:enigma pretty much has to be town for the same reasons I am regarding night actions + BuJ wanted him dead for most of the game.
also I also feel like this is another low-nuance "scum lynch town, town lynch scum" type read (I do think enigma is probably town, but your level of certainty is doubly strange to me considering you scumread enigma on night actions + posting alone and I don't, and I still haven't reached it after bujaber's flip)
I even mentioned a couple times that bujaber likes to mess with associatives as scum
his d1 case on enigma was "policy lynch for pagetopping" which is never ever going to get someone actually lynched so at least some of it could be distancing without necessarily having intent to bus either
I don't really get that vibe from Buj that he would try something like that as scum. I think it's more of him trying to mess with associations rather than distancing.
In post 3066, ruru wrote:I use it extremely literally in my own case: yes, in theory, I could hard bus bujaber and fake claim bg because wifom and then make the game nightless (sacrificing the most overpowered ability in the game) and then drive lynches on town like 4 times in a row or something but I only do that if I'm extremely confident in my ability to towntell which is never the case when I roll scum and if I'm not then it's actually just gamethrowing.
alonzo and I were both generally townread already so there's no point for either of us in poeing the game further; fakeclaiming only really makes sense for either of us if we planned to stop the bujaber lynch so as to make rb/tracker innos remain ambiguous (and I already knew there's an rb when I claimed bg)
alonzo had a 1/3 chance to instantly lose to a cc considering I would never let bujaber live to endgame, and he wasn't lined up to be lynched, so that's objectively townreadable as well
alonzo would also be expecting an investigative role above him in the claim order; if someone had useful n1/n2 gc/tracker results (for example, tracking alonzo doing nothing) the game could also just be mechanically solved by his claim
so like basically it's not impossible but it's just exceedingly unlikely
I do actually really agree with this post. It does make logical sense to me, and really, like, the only person I feel like would try this is Skitter. Everyone else I don't think would even bother attempting that.
In post 3075, Irrelephant11 wrote: In post 3056, ruru wrote: In post 3036, Irrelephant11 wrote:I would've shot last night, btw. There were good odds I'd be targeted based on what people told Alonzo to do, so what would be the point in holstering?
?
My point here was just that scum!me would mean dead!ruru
I haven’t thought through all the steps of scum strategy here but I’m pretty sure since I didn’t get blocked the no kill is a slight town point for me
Maybe scum had to no kill to have a chance here idk
@ruru imagine tw’d rep out was NAI. Who would you want to lynch/how would you read the slot?
Thinking about it, yea, there's literally no reason for you to holster if you're scum. If you're RB'd, kill won't go through, but if you don't kill and you weren't RB'd, you wasted the night, and I don't really think you're that confident in your scum-play to do so.
I'd still wanna lynch you/preformer. I treated the TW rep out as NAI.
In post 3084, ruru wrote:I want to know if you agree that town!me means scum!Performer
also about this, I think it's scummy that you keep insisting on performer being scum but you haven't really bothered much to argue your idea that enigma is locktown after I criticised it.
if you're dying town the former isn't changing anything lynchpool-wise (except possibly getting you off the hook today) but the latter should, from your perspective, be a big deal because it increases the probability of you winning against {korina, me}.
I'm not following here. Care to explain?
I think Irrel/Preformer.
In post 3082, ruru wrote: In post 3080, Irrelephant11 wrote:I don’t care if you lynch me first; I agree that might be the right strategy fypov and I’ve already WIFOM’d up my slot by saying as such
then why are you still ateing and making it annoying to lynch you? like I don't believe that you're actually ignorant of what you're doing here.
The AtEing is working a bit on me though :/
Like Performer feels much more survivalistic than elephant atm, IMO.
Performer's lack of any scum hunting today + the rb last night + general actions before that + duck/sky = my preferred lynch today[/quote]
I'm fine with a Performer lynch.
In post 3086, Enigma wrote:Not voting yet because it will be L-1 and still waiting on Korina. But I kinda feel more scum equity on performer than elephant rn.
If it happens to be a mislynch and you aren't around tomorrow ruru, I will (try to) sort elephant out and hopefully not let him get away if he is scum
I mean, I feel like the most optimal thing to do here is lynch Performer/Irrel today. If he flips green, Alonzo RBs {You, Irrel/Performer}.
If no kill, we hang whoever Alonzo RB'd, and if its green, we RB the other.
If no kills again, we hang the other, and if that's still green, I'm 100% certain its Skitter, because Skitter is reasonably the only one who would be
that
confident in their scumplay IMO.
If there is a kill, we know that whoever Alonzo RB'd is Town, and we lynch the other. If green, RB someone else, go from there.
In post 3088, ruru wrote:also the fact that you and skitter are townreading his policy-worthy ate is +++ for me to go allin on pushing irrel's lynch today
I'd really prefer to skip that part and just lynch him?
also performer's pred ate'd better if you want to townread ate, it's just not in the front of your mind
90% of irrel's ate is basically complaining that the game isn't fair in ways that could easily apply to either alignment
I'm not really seeing it. Care to explain?
In post 3090, skitter30 wrote: In post 3080, Irrelephant11 wrote:I’m real confused why anyone thinks I would have holstered my shot as scum last night but I don’t care to engage with ruru much at all anymore and I probably still win by dying so do whatever
if your'e scum and someone else got rb'd you can frame them; i'm not entirely following why it you think it should be obvious that scum!you wouldn't have shot last night?
I mean, do you think Irrel is that confident in their scumplay to take that risk, when they're already being SR'd, Performer/Enigma green flip makes them more suspicious?
In post 3088, ruru wrote:also the fact that you and skitter are townreading his policy-worthy ate is +++ for me to go allin on pushing irrel's lynch today
I'd really prefer to skip that part and just lynch him?
also performer's pred ate'd better if you want to townread ate, it's just not in the front of your mind
90% of irrel's ate is basically complaining that the game isn't fair in ways that could easily apply to either alignment
ate really really works on me
i need like several irl days distance in order to read it like unbiasedly
and yeah it's making me not want to lynch him today
i'm not entirely sure that it matters - from my pov lynching through {irrel/performer/enigma} wins the game nearly always and i'm like not dying before like n6 at this rate and i can make sure that happens
I agree on this. Lynching those three nearly always wins the game.
@korina: i know that scum!you is very wary about posting because you're worried about outing your partners
does scum!you's posting habits change when you're last scum?
I thought about this a bit more: Yes, my posting would change. This is something I'm not used to, so I'm obviously playing carefully and trying to figure out what I'm wanting to do. I'm playing more passively than I would early-game, (something I'm already used to living through).
I feel like Scum!Me in this situation would play passively for certain. Contrast to what I said, I don't think I would play very care-freely at this point. If I knew, (or felt like) I certainly had the game won and the only way I can lose is modkill, yea, I'd play totally care-free. However, I don't really see scum being able to have a guaranteed win at this point, so I think I would be playing more passively than I would be already. I think it would be more of an amplification of my normal scum-meta, not to avoid giving away partners, but, rather myself.
In post 3093, skitter30 wrote:idk was just wondering if your posting would change discernably
also wondering if i'm letting you coast cuz of an early townread from literally weeks ago
My posting would. There's no way around that. Final-Scum!Me in this situation would probably be very nervous in this situation, and play even more passively, like I said.
In post 3102, Irrelephant11 wrote: In post 3090, skitter30 wrote:if your'e scum and someone else got rb'd you can frame them; i'm not entirely following why it you think it should be obvious that scum!you wouldn't have shot last night?
So like,
Let's say I'm scum.
1 - If I don't shoot, and I get roleblocked, I become semi-confirmed scum (or at least that much more likely to get lynched)
2 - If I don't shoot, and someone else gets roleblocked, they become semi-confirmed scum (or at least I have a chance at mislynching them (though for some reason y'all think I would instead begin to play like garbage a game day in advance while lynching my partner in hopes that I could get one more mislynch in before my death is inevitable but regardless))
3 - If I do shoot, and I get roleblocked, things are exactly the same as scenario 1
4 - If I do shoot, and ruru dies, I trade conf!town ruru for conf!town {performer, enigma} which is sort of a bad trade in terms of mislynchability but at least one more townie is dead (and we stay in evens, which is pro-scum). Given I need 5 more townies dead to win, I either would need:
--> 2 mislynches (one of {enigma, performer} &, idk, korina) and 3 nightkills (ruru, Alonzo, doesn't matter because at this point I've won, unless we no lynched in mylo, in which case I just kill a conftown and it's lylo anyway)
--> 3 mislynches (performer, enigma, and one of {korina, skitter}) and 2 nightkills (ruru & Alonzo)
So by holstering you're assuming I'm going for more mislynches & fewer nightkills, but actually looking at it it's not that unreasonable a play and this is probably exactly the point I would try to make as scum for you to townread me, so I guess it's not as strong a point as I thought it was.
It's still not what I would do as scum here, but I guess that's more of a fun post-flip tidbit than it is AI for me to say rn.
Once again, this is my point: I honestly don't think Scum!Irrel would bother with this. I think Scum!Skitter would try it, however, anyone else wouldn't. It's too risky, and I don't really get the vibe that anyone else is that confident in their play apart from Skitter. That doesn't mean I'm SRing Skitter, however, I just generally get a vibe from Skitter that she's confident in how she plays, ergo, if she's scum, she'd probably try this.
In post 3082, ruru wrote:then why are you still ateing and making it annoying to lynch you? like I don't believe that you're actually ignorant of what you're doing here.
okay, great.
I will now prodge until the game ends.
This is not game throwing, I'm that confident Performer is scum and will die that I feel no need to sort further.
ruru is right that my temper tantrum is just that we're not winning as *fast as I'd like* so I'll stop AtEing.
Wait, real quick gonna analyze the possibilities here (you'll forgive me for a few more words, this is probably my last real post):
If enigma is scum, and I'm today's lynch
6 person night, presumably holstering again (so as not to conftown performer) // 6 person day, performer lynch // 5 person night, either ruru dies and alonzo conftowns korina or no kill // 4 person mylo with alonzo and enigma 1v1ing or 5 person day with enigma at the bottom of the lynchpool
this is fine.
If Korina is scum, and I'm today's lynch
6 person night, potentially holstering again (so as not to conftown one of enigma/performer) // If holstering, 6 person day, performer lynch // 5 person night, holstering again // 5 person day, enigma lynch yada yada town wins here
If not holstering, 5 person day with conftown performer(could be enigma, but for example) and dead ruru, enigma lynch // 4 person night where korina might holster/get roleblocker but either way is in a 1v1 with skitter and there's some number of conftown
Yes okay town wins unless it's skitter and I'm willing to bet the game on town skitter
If I were scum I would concede here, honestly (hint @scum: concede)
If I'm scum here, I threw by holstering last night. It's impossible for me to win as scum if I holstered last night, barring modkill.
Reasonably, I wouldn't be blocked, so I'd try to kill off Ruru, leaving {Me, Skitter, Alonzo, Performer, Enigma} alive. Performer/Enigma may get confirmed, sure, however, that doesn't really matter all that much. I can try to express suspicion in {Performer, Enigma}, and try to get one of them lynched, the other RB'd.
If I do that, I can win. I just have to kill off Alonzo because he's the only one who could deny victory. (The game would be {Skitter, Me, Alonzo, Performer/Enigma} at that point as well.)
Let's say things do go according to my plan, what happens next? Only {Me, Skitter, Performer/Enigma} are still alive. I try to convince them it has to be Skitter, (namely via my own meta, and the fact that Skitter would reasonably try to pull this off, I wouldn't, it's too risky), and if I do succeed, I win, gg. Otherwise, I lose, gg.
Regardless of this, I cannot be scum. I know holstering was a throw for me, so why would I try that when I'd be gambiting so hard at that point, that it wouldn't be worth it? Even if I could somehow win from holstering last night, (which I can't, I checked), why would I risk that when there's an easier path for Scum!Me to take?
Oh wait
If ruru is scum (just to cover all my bases, I don't believe this at all), and I'm today's lynch
6 person night, ruru has to holster indefinitely because she's the next nightkill // 6 person day, enigma/performer lynch // 5 person day, enigma/performer lynch // 4 person day, korina lynch? Even though I just showed above why Korina wouldn't holster indefinitely? Wait no I didn't, really. a ruru/alonzo/korina/skitter mylo is the potential problem case, huh? With indefinite holstering making it hard to know why they're holstering
Well if you're performer/enigma scum you should concede
Frick so now I have to bet the game on ruru/alonzo/korina/skitter all being town for my death to be strictly optimal play
... which honestly I'm really close to being ready to do, unless anyone disbelieves one of the role claims (given BuJ's TMI about the roles that skitter pointed out and I had also noticed, I don't disbelieve any role claims)
I'll ISO Korina before I bet the game on him being town, and other than the results of that will only post content when asked. Also I would feel yucky about voting myself but if two players ask me to I will.
I know I'm town, I believe Ruru/Alonzo being town. I believe Skitter being town, so that means it's optimal for your own lynch here.
