Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[UnaBombaH]

"outside the box".761 quote is the box. 773 quote is outside the main box, which in my mind means he attempted to visit CT due to "no matter what FA flips, if i ever wake up to d4 im going after CT."

Believe it or not, I had this written down yesterday before I went to sleep, but decided I was just getting too excited and saw things that weren't there!
I still think this could point to you, however, but I'm not gonna phonepost about it now.

[nonny]

Who would be Dave's partner?

[Tchill13]

Need to catch up. Won’t happen tonight, had a crazy work week.

FAQ2 hasn’t even stood out so need to iso there.
Is an even night doc even confirmable?

not only is there not a single mention of nonny from FA...

there's not a single mention of Reundo either. Now if we were to go down this rabbit hole. It'd mean that a scum team of nonny/fa/reundo could be feasible. now THAT is a team i wouldn't be surpised to learn they shot boon anyways, after the protective announced he'd be on boon.

This would also validate the "outside the box, round, reundo" crumb. Now i just talked myself into Boon visiting CT.... But i gotta admit this team is at least feasible. The only thing is reundo has consistently pushed nonny. reundo even has FA and nonny at the bottom of a readslist together.

would also explain why town is pulling in opposite ways. It'd explain the shade reundo is throwing at dave atm.

[Tchill13]

"outside the box".761 quote is the box. 773 quote is outside the main box, which in my mind means he attempted to visit CT due to "no matter what FA flips, if i ever wake up to d4 im going after CT."

Believe it or not, I had this written down yesterday before I went to sleep, but decided I was just getting too excited and saw things that weren't there!
I still think this could point to you, however, but I'm not gonna phonepost about it now.

i think boon had real reason to check CT.

[nonny]

Got through iso'ing Reundo and Dave. Chose them because well, they have the smallest post counts currently. Reundo has 18 posts, just found that out threw this and know I'm low, but come on!

Start with reundo since his post count is lowest:
122 Find if funny that Reundo calls out Dave on calling out someone else on lurking……big loop of pot/kettle there. Just saying.

Note; early wagon on CT has FA, tchill joins with no posts from CT to support. Reundo calls Tchill out on it. Reundo and Tchill not likely team. (post 79 VC). Keeps up the questioning in more than one post, wasn’t just a one off.

Reundo questions CT changing wagons in 151, not in such a way as too guilty CT back on to the wagon, since it’s the wagon rend was on it’s interesting that he’s asking motives on vote switching.

Reundo doesn’t join the easy mislynches. He in fact was not on any of the mislynches.

307 Joins FA in shading Flavor for his gambit and drawing out real PRs.

422 describes how he doesn’t see scum!FA. Doesn’t want to do the vengekill, wants to vote carca if they are scummy, plausible from town perspective but also could be scum not wanting a death they are not directing.
Follow up in 451 does read more town not wanting to use the

maybe

vengekill.

I'm iffy on Tchill. I didn't like his tunnel on Carca, and a lot of his Flavor scum-read relies too much on Burden of Proficiency and paranoia. He seems to only be paying half attention to the game since he apparently can't even keep track of who was night-killed, and honestly it's hard to tell whether he's doing this intentionally or not.

Honestly though, I think it's best to just assume he's town for the time being unless the loud player claims a protective.

I think there's a decent chance there's a role-blocker, but it seems too much of a gamble to lynch him right now when otherwise he'd pretty much be confirmed town assuming Flavor's telling the truth.

This stands out. Like maybe it’s thinking outloud. But also could be where Dave’s role came from? If dave is scum then this just pointed out a perfect out and mislynch. Dave could have independently had this thought sure, but it’s very coincidental in that world.

Reundo flips to scum reading FA by 575.

Overall agree with 921, esp dave’s circles are round and not boxes part. Most of it I already addressed and replied to though. What I don’t get is the TChill TR.
Reundo Iso leads to town iso, which is same conclusion I reached day 3.

Reundo, why is Tchill your highest townread?

[nonny]

Now Daveaz because I’m lazy and doing least posts to most posts.
If 210 is a crumb then sure. But it’s also possibly just a typo being used to advantage. Latter is more likely because….you didn’t save profii. Profii was killed night 1. So yeah maybe you saved the shot instead, but why point out your crumb if you didn’t actually act on said crumb? Is it even a crumb at that point?
749 Does address this but still doesn’t feel good.

Love the explanation of why he can log in to vote Tip after just posting V/LA. like the level of paranoia on being called out on lurking, that just shows as self aware lurking. It happens throughout.

401 I agree with Tchill. The reaction to CT’s claim is odd. Even more so with the speculation on set up. I’m not familiar with setup anymore, but a 13 player game with 2 protectives and at least 1 other confirmed PR at this stage, seems high. Wouldn’t it be odd? I could see a larger game having more protectives. Why would dave want to cover for CT though? This only makes sense if CT and Dave are partners and dave knows CT’s claim is fake. Otherwise its Dave really thinking there are two protectives, which again doesn’t seem right.

475 is making me go look at the pages of talking about the vengeful shot.
CT: wants me or FA.
Tchill: dave, wilky, popo (lurkers) after reundo was veto’d
FA: wanted no one
Reundo: doesn’t want carco/vengeful.
Una: “Fa/wilky/???”
Daveaz: nonny and wilky.
From this alone Una and CT are town. I see no reason for scum to put their partner in this pool.

Tchill is shading Dave for not having FA on his list, but neither did Tchill?
I'm still on fence with Dave.

Lynches:
1. Daveaz and Tchill are the only nonconf town on the Tip lynch. Apparently FL (still don’t know why he’s called Boon) is known for hammering. I don’t see dave and tchill as partners. There is no reason for tchill to be bussing dave this hard when almost any other player could be mislynched currently. But scum is probably in one of them, a full town lynch day 1 doesn’t seem likely, I’m sure it’s happened but seems less likely.
2. More currently alive were on carca. Dave, Tchill, Una, CT.
3. FA lynch, dave was not on it. Dave and Reundo are the only living players that were not on FA.

[Tchill13]

im not sure who dave's partner is. CT and Una are conftown which would mean it has to be one of nonny and reundo.

[nonny]

Now I have to go to bed. But currently
TR: Una, CT
Reundo is at surface TR but thinking that may be on purpose.
I need to assess Tchill. Really don't see Tchill and Dave together.

[Tchill13]

Who would be partner for scum!cr Tchill?

Fa literally didn't mention reundo or nonny not once.

this gives us good setup spec in Dave actually being the doc.

[Tchill13]

can someone tell me if they feel that reundo or nonny have sorted much this game?

[Tchill13]

so where i currently sit is dave is scum with (nonny/ruendo)

or the scum team is (nonny/Ruendo)

CT and Una are lock town. I'm doing my best to weigh all my options here. That's the only 2 scenarios i can believe to be true.

My gut says dave is scum because boon checked CT last night (had the most to gain from checking CT due to boons lock town status of Una and his lean town status of CT and surviving to mylo if dave is actually town) which would mean it's literally 50/50 between nonny and reundo. Nonny has pushed Dave the whole game. Reundo has pushed nonny consistently.

Dave is scum with reundo. Boon checked CT last night. I'm putting this here to celebrate by myself when town loses this game.

had Boon not had the most to gain from checking CT (seen from a crumb even una admits to have seen) then I'd go full tilt towards nonny/reundo. BUT, i believe boon checked a town CT. Which by default means Dave must be scum.

[Tchill13]

una was locktown. CT was a town lean boon wanted to have cleared in mylo due to Una stating una would tunnel CT day 4.

Una/CT/Boon against a town lean in tchill and the rest of

Shit, that was a very good page. Don’t wholly disagree with anything when laid out that way. I’m still more confidant in Dave though so will keep vote there for now.

Which also explains this post. Picks the townie of the three that i proposed.

Yeah, that fits nicely.

Nonny, Reundo, FA.

I’m going FA first.

How could Boon die if CT is town? If dave was scum of course, which boon originally thought.

This being said, dave also made sure to state that Tchill would stay available as a mislynch option.

This gives us TownCT, TownUnah, TownTchill, TownLeaf (I like to think I’m blatantly town, which is why Nonny is kinda of scummy, but i think Nonny is mislynch bait.)

I think it’s FA, Dave, Reundo.

and boon had caught dave red handed. Even calling him out for interacting with his scum partners.

This is Dave making sure he interacts with both FA and Reundo, in a rather NAI, pointless kind of way, to be honest.

Spoiler:

I don't think it should be her choice.

Why?

If she really is town vengeful then why give scum the opening to try and control the shot? What scenario do you think it is better that a revenge shot completely controlled by town should be not be so?

This is a good point, but I have a question about it -- do you think there is scum you think is trying to direct the shot? Or is this just a general principle you're talking about?

Reundo threw shade at me that whole post then voted someone else lol.

What's your point here? Is voting you a requirement for "throwing shade at you"? I can point out things I don't like from players without automatically placing them as my #1 pick for scum. There's other players I'd much rather see lynched today that are also much more likely to actually be lynched today.

Yes but do you have an actual reason for your vote? More to the point, you say other players but it's not clear who they are.

Now, here, he labels both Reundo and FA as scum, right? Looking at previous posts, you couldn’t ever think that.
HOWEVER, when he goes and votes Carca, he says the venge candidates should be Nonny and Wilky. The two people already being brought up that aren’t FA/Reundo.

Spoiler:

Going mostly from memory because I didn't get time to do that deep re-read, and most of this is low quality unless stated otherwise.

nonny - lurker
FA_Q2 - weak scum
Unabombah - saw a couple things I thought probably came from town
davesaz - role pm says town
Completly Trustworthy - Doesn't seem to be stretching for scumreads quite as much as the last game we played together, probably town
TheHolySpirit - I copied and pasted the list from the OP and when I got to this one I went WTF? Is this player even in the game? replace by someone? I don't want to open another tab so I'll figure out where the issue was later.
Reundo - lurker and scummy
Flavor Leaf - town for the gambit
Carcalilly - vengeful claim, don't have an independent read on the slot
Tchill13 - isn't doing the normal leaping about and jumping to conclusions that I normally scumread him for when he's town. I see the post explaining that. I think I'll wait for some replies to decide
wilky - dunno, scum side of null I think

Somethings's wrong with my list because too many of the possible scum are lurkers.

A very "aware" notion imo.. while good, I havent seen anything like this from you ever before, so feels a bit weird though?

But I'll try to turn this into a question now -

in this specific game, don't you think we could actually, for once, have a full lurkerteam of scum?

I have my own thoughts on this, and will share them in full if dave first gives his in-depth answer..

I think I question my own reads often, if that’s what you’re talking about in the first part.

It’s seeming more likely that at least 2 scum are lurking. We don’t see anywhere near as much agenda pushing as normal imo. No time for a wagon switch, my candidates for venge if it’s real would be nonny and wilky I think.

VOTE: carcalilly

Work day don’t know if I’ll be back before eod.

i'm not sure what else to tell you guys. Boon hesitated due to pressure of the game being blamed on him. THE MAIN REASON I BELIEVE DAVE TO BE SCUM IS BECAUSE BOON DIED. Boon was right to hesitate. Without last night phase i wouldn't be this sure that dave was scum. It makes sense for boon to check CT if he believes he'll be around for mylo. Which he clearly does. In boons eyes theres only one way he isn't since he believes dave is the town protective.

If I die anyways, it’s confirmed there is a roleblocker and Tchill can’t necessarily be considered town. If I die, and someone else dies, I expect Unah to figure out who i targeted.

he believes the role blocker would block the doc and kill boon. Boon didn't know that The scum role blocker was about to flip. This statement is made with the idea that scum would be able to RB the doc during the night phase since boon fully believed dave was the doc at this point. This is not a statement saying TCHILL IS SCUM. it's a statement saying the RB merely exist because it wasn't confirmed at that point.

[Tchill13]

if i am wrong about dave and reundo i will buy a ticket, fly to finland and personally apologize to you face to face una.

[Tchill13]

sure una im a mastermind as scum thx. I could not have orchestrated boon playing into my hand THAT WELL. thats a bit ridiculous.

[UnaBombaH]

This page has the kind of Chill I can see myself cooperating with.

[Tchill13]

OK what else do you think lol

[Reundo]

Reundo: saying I’m scum becuase I wasn’t quick hammere is an easy out. The most I got to (official vote count wise) was L-3, so where would the quick hammer even come from?

There were 2 people voting you (me and CT) D3. There were 3 scum left (unless there's 2 scum in a 13 player game, which would be really dumb). We needed 5 votes to get a lynch. 2+3=5. 5=5. That's where the quick hammer would come from, assuming you're not scum yourself.

I personally don’t like to just include a post I flat out agree with, it’s lazy and not helpful. Before my catch up I had already reference FA’s post in day 2 (on day 2) that I agreed with. I have not played a 13 player game since hiatus and didn’t think about the set up, that’s also what happened when I thought I was L-1 day one. Read as a gambit if you want but this game is making me feel dumb and inadequate *shrug* I am legitimately trying to do my best and did flake a little previous days becuase it got overwhelming. I regardless do not post every little thing I think, maybe that’s not best practice but that’s me.

Oh, I must've missed that since it was spoiled, but that's literally the only post you referenced as a reason to tr him IIRC. Like, what else did FA post that you felt "aligned with what you saw"? Also, no one's asking you to post "every little thing" you think, but if you felt FA was a town-read during your catch-up I'd expect you to find more of his posts to reference than just the one you found in D2.

Reundo, why is Tchill your highest townread?

His scum-hunting seems pretty genuine for the most part. He flips-flops on his theories a lot, but there's not really much rhyme or reason as to why he does it. Like, he was scum-reading CT all of D3 and the first part of D4 but he switches it to lock-town all on his own -- there's no one that said "well I thought CT might be town" that would influence his thinking, so it seemed like it was just him thinking things over that caused him to switch, which there wouldn't be much reason to do as scum. His frustration towards people not agreeing with his dave read also seems natural coming from town and is probably how I'd react if I were in his situation. There were a few conversations early on with FA_Q2 that would be weird from a chill/FA pair. Going through FA's ISO, I realized there's actually a few awkward things between the two of them such as FA's tr on chill and chill's semi-reluctance to vote FA that I might need to look into later, and I haven't agreed with a lot of tchill's theories this game, but I think the slot's town overall.

[nonny]

Most of what FA posted was innocuous, which in hindsight was probably the goal. Wasn’t much worth referencing. Again, he didn’t even stand out as being in the game until his name was being thrown around for wagon/vengeful.

Do you think the 3 scum had instant hammered prior? Why is them not doing it to me a tell? This doesn’t pan out general, just becuase they physically can doesn’t mean they will, nor would it nessacarily be an advantage. I’ve almost been the mislynch everyday, would assume scum want to keep that around if they start to flounder, since apparently I’m not much a threat otherwise.

[UnaBombaH]

nonny (2) : Reundo, Completly Trustworthy,

+

Oh, and unless it wasn't clear to everyone already - at least one of nonny, Reundo and Completly Trustworthy are basically confirmed scum now. OR we are facing a scumteam that just flat out sucks at coordinating.

This was the situation for very much long enough for scum to orchestrate any kind of a "quick" hammer.

I'm guessing this doesn't help much in itself right now, but in case anyone ever starts to second guess it: we WILL find at least one scum in this trio. (hint: it's least likely nonny considering many of the things that have happened since, but.. )

[UnaBombaH]

@Chill - if we can achieve a mutual agreement on who to lynch TODAY (and reach it via same reasoning, mind you), I'm willing to throw a townlock on you.
Meaning that if we lynch scum today (as we SHOULD), no matter if I'm the one to go before tomorrow, I'll make sure everyone remaining alive will know that you are town.
(meaning that you can surely get your dave-lynch through tomorrow when I'm not around. )

Why am I putting it like this?
I really have trouble trusting you right now. (also sowing the seeds for some crrrrrazy WIFOM towards scum on who they should/should not nightkill.. )

So....IF you are able to convince me that someone other than dave is SURELY scum, and will result in us surviving to another day if lynched, you can then easily claim your scum-win tomorrow when I'm not around.

[UnaBombaH]

Also - I want CT to give their reasoning on Chill/dave.
Like, can you see this ever being town pushing town? I'm curious.

And I want to hear more from dave. Anything.
But mostly I'd like to hear what scumteam of two dave would pick from Chill/CT/reundo.

And IF nonny is somehow scum, where is his buddy?

[UnaBombaH]

*her

[UnaBombaH]

I read pronouns.
BuDucky is a He-duck.

[nonny]

Una’s plan looks good. Want to see those things too. Will continue my iso dive myself too but may not happen again until tomorrow, work doubles on Monday.

[The Mighty Ducks]

Quack