Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[Tchill13]

then it just goes to show town loses games here, scum do not win them.

[Reundo]

Reundo, why did you mistakenly think you saw motion around Nonny when you didn't? Also, why did you not crumb your result from night 3?

My initial result was wrong. As to why I didn't crumb my N3 result, I kind of meant to earlier in the day but just forgot about it. It wasn't as pressing an issue to me as the day went by since there was very little chance I was going to get night-killed. I would've crumbed towards the end of day regardless if I didn't just come out and claim instead.

Dave's play makes a lot of sense from scum. Since he's a loud role, he would have known he'd be forced to fake claim eventually, and he can't fake his results since, well, he's loud, so he started crumbing his doctor fake-claim early. When CT came out with his gambit davesaz had absolutely no reason to suspect he was lying, and that if he counter-claimed there and CT flipped even doctor then he'd 100% be the next lynch, so at that point he was restricted to only roles that could plausibly coexist with an even doctor. He couldn't claim non-consecutive because that doesn't gel well with even doctor, he couldn't claim odd night because he'd have no excuse for not saving profii N1, and he couldn't claim 1-shot because that would just be dumb. I'm sure he's at least a two shot ~something~, or playing down his shots at the very least, which would mesh nicely with FA's flip.

Scum couldn't just leave Flavor alive. For one, he was practically confirmed town himself, due to the fact that pretty much no one was suspecting him towards the end of D3. If he tried to target town and succeeded, that meant he could confirm another townie this day phase. Since Flavor's crumb last day phase was ambiguous, scum also had the opportunity to kill him and morph his target into whatever they want it to be, which is exactly what happened when davesaz tried to push his convoluted theory that I was visited last night. The risk of leaving Flavor alive was just too great, regardless of how suspicious it made davesaz look in the aftermath. Dave could have potentially claimed he holstered his shot to try to out-WIFOM scum, but he probably thought it was more believable to push a no-kill / Flavor-targeted-scum theory instead.

Night actions aside, let's just look at his actual play. 80% of what he's done this day phase is just defending himself -- he isn't trying to actively hunt out scum, he just cares that the lynch isn't him today. The rest of the 20% is him pushing me as Flavor's visit for some dumb reasons and claiming that Tchill is pushing him as a mislynch because he apparently knows he'd be good bait -- this is literally the only game-solving outside of himself he's done today. And at the end of it all he votes me... why exactly? Why would he just blank vote without elaborating on himself?

D3 he practically doesn't push anyone at all. He like reacts to one statement each from me/tchill/FA and never actually votes anyone himself -- he does a little followup with me but it doesn't really go anywhere.

D2 he again only responds to a handful of posts, and the posts he responds to doesn't gel with his actual readslist. He says that FA makes a good point yet lists him as "weak scum", he says he can't understand why I voted wilky and lists me as "scummy and lurking", and he says that nonny could be "scum trying to check whether it's safe or not to lie" yet lists her as just "lurker". Only his read of me vaguely supports his actual read, but his only foundation is that one post alone and he doesn't do anything else to try to push me as a scum-read. As it's also been pointed out, he has no reason to list wilky and nonny as his venge-kills when he found me/FA more scummy than nonny through his reads-list.

D1 was his best day, but not by much. His push on profii was pretty much the only meaningful push he made the entire game, and the only one where he cared enough to actually vote who he found suspicious and actually case him, but its also scattered with a lot of one-off comments that don't really go anywhere or produce anything meaningful. There was also a weird post he made calling out Tiphaine for his push on profii and said that if profii was town then Tiphaine would be "a good candidate for me sheeping me", which feels really weird and just looks like him setting up his next mislynch for tomorrow, while also giving him a good excuse to jump ship if the profii wagon died down considering Tiphaine was the next-viable wagon that day.

[Reundo]

TL;DR: The simplest explanation for what happened N3 was that Flavor wasn't actually saved and that scum!dave killed him. Anything else produces a whole lot of WIFOM, and it takes a lot more work to explain why scum intentionally killed someone they know would be saved or intentionally no-killed. Is it possible that scum no-killed or tried to kill Flavor regardless of the doc claim? Yes, of course it is, but then what would explain his behavior this day phase? Why would town!dave spend the majority of today trying to clear his name instead of actually trying to hunt scum? The only effort he put forward this game was his profii push D1 and his flimsy readslist D2. Beyond that, he's commented on a lot of posts and tried to look like he was game-solving, but he never actually re-assessed his reads, and other than the profii vote all of his votes have happened after said wagon already picked up enough steam. Trying to clear his name through WIFOM is only half of the battle -- trying to explain the night-kill AND why dave hasn't cared much about game-solving past D1 is just fighting an uphill battle. It's painfully clear that davesaz's just scum here.

[Tchill13]

Glad more than just me can see that.

[nonny]

Reundo: if you’ve suspected me since day 1 why wasn’t I your night 1 target?

[Tchill13]

Good points on the claimed town doc not even attempting to solve btw.

Dave is scum and he's just hoping we screw up and don't lynch him. Una almost got that done.

[davesaz]

I'm going to say something absolutely true about rl. I stopped going apeshit when people scumread me because I started getting worried I'd have an actual stroke from the high blood pressure. My new style is to play my role and put in the available time if any. I just haven't had the time. My vote is where I think our best hope of staying in it. I have very little confidence in my reads. This is what I do when I'm out of the zone. It hasn't been a good game for me.

I'm sitting in a campground. Thought day would end yesterday and night (if any) would be while I was out here. I barely had signal to phone post, hope this goes through. If we lynch scum it will still be hard to figure out the partner. Hope there's another day to come back to.

[Reundo]

Reundo: if you’ve suspected me since day 1 why wasn’t I your night 1 target?

I explained this partially in my claim post, but I followed the general investigative strategy of targeting null-reads instead of scum-reads. I also didn't think you were likely to make the night-kill since there was a lot of suspicion around you, so a no-result would tell me a lot less than it normally would. If I detected motion around you, it would make it more likely you'd be a scum PR, but it also wouldn't be a hard guilty since there's a decent chance another PR would've targeted you that night, so it basically wouldn't change my read on you either way. Tchill was a better check for me since he was someone I was undecided on, and it'd be more likely I'd learn something new from my result, especially if I'd gotten a "detected motion" result since it would've suggested he was a town/scum PR or made the scum kill (or was targeted, but I didn't think it was that likely all things considered).

Nonny, can you explain why I'm more likely to flip scum than davesaz at this point?

[Tchill13]

Who wants to say just screw it and lynch CT? Any takers?

[Completly Trustworthy]

At this point, I think Davesaz is the most likely player to flip scum along with Reundo since I think Dave/Nonny is a slight possibility and I'm feeling better about Tchill at the moment. If nobody from the Reundo wagon flips to Dave though, I'll probably just lynch Reundo because his claim does seem very weak.

[Completly Trustworthy]

So, Una and Nonny, do you believe the case against Dave? If both of you say you won't vote Dave in your next post, I'll end the day by hammering Reundo.

[nonny]

Reundo, I still think your claim is bs. Also, there was not as much suspicion on me day 1 as you are saying, I could see that being your reasoning day 2 but not day 1. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the posted mod error followed by your retraction on seeing motion around me. But that’s it. Your conviction that I’m scum regardless of your claimed results is faulty, what’s the point of having “results” if your just explaining them away.

At this point I am willing to hammer Dave purely to end the day, I’m 75/25 on him being scum at this stage. How hard tchill is pushing is what’s gross to me though.

Intent to hammer in 3 hours unless I see something else convincing or a post from una.

[nonny]

Make that 1 hr since deadline is in little over 2 hrs

[Tchill13]

I'm still thinking scum!Rolecop is poop.
Just because Gamma was killed, people even started to speculate the chance of a Rolecop.
I still think Gamma was a reasonable kill for scum if Gamma was potentially going to push in the right direction the following day.
..anyone check what that direction was going to be?

It's coming off as gross due to the fact that nobody understands why Dave being scum here makes sense.

[The Mighty Ducks]

vote count 4.08

Quack, flavour to follow

nonny

(0) :

UnaBombaH

(0):

davesaz

(3) : Tchill13, Reundo, Completly Trustworthy

Completly Trustworthy

(0) :

Reundo

(3) : nonny, davesaz, UnaBombaH

Tchill13

(0) :

not voting:

with 6 duckies alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

day three will end with no lynch in (expired on 2018-10-28 10:30:00)

mod notes:
- quack

[nonny]

VOTE: daveaz don’t think no lynch will give us much. If your wrong tchill I’m gonna be mad.

[Reundo]

Reundo, I still think your claim is bs. Also, there was not as much suspicion on me day 1 as you are saying, I could see that being your reasoning day 2 but not day 1. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the posted mod error followed by your retraction on seeing motion around me. But that’s it. Your conviction that I’m scum regardless of your claimed results is faulty, what’s the point of having “results” if your just explaining them away.

Yeah, there was a lot more suspicion around you D2, I think I was misremembering what happened D1. But considering you were the only significant wagon of D1 that wasn't confirmed town (besides CT, but you two can't be partners anyways due to today's wagons), it still stands that your partners would want anyone but you performing the night-kill. And the reason why you're scum regardless of the claimed results is because it wasn't even based on the results in the first place. On D3 me + CT were voting you, and with 5 needed to lynch a 3-man scum team could've easily hammered you if you were town. If you are town and were quick-hammered then all scum needed to do was pull off one more kill and it'd be 3 scum VS 3 town, which means scum would win. The only thing they need to be afraid of is a protective, and considering we've been through two doc claims with no counter-claims that's something they don't need to take into account. I know I'm town, and I know CT's town because he didn't hammer me, so the only reason that I can think of why you weren't quick-hammered D3 is that you're scum yourself. That's why from my perspective you have to be scum, and if you want to convince me you're town you're going to have to paint me a picture where it would reasonable for scum NOT to quick-hammer you D2 and win the game right then and there -- even if davesaz somehow was the doctor they'd just kill him and call it a day.

At this point I am willing to hammer Dave purely to end the day, I’m 75/25 on him being scum at this stage. How hard tchill is pushing is what’s gross to me though.

OK, but you think dave is most likely scum too and dave/Tchill is impossible since I wasn't hammered, so I don't get what's your point here.

[The Mighty Ducks]

vote count 4.08

Quack, flavour to follow

nonny

(0) :

UnaBombaH

(0):

davesaz

(4) : Tchill13, Reundo, Completly Trustworthy, nonny

Completly Trustworthy

(0) :

Reundo

(4) : davesaz, UnaBombaH

Tchill13

(0) :

not voting:

with 6 duckies alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

day three will end with no lynch in (expired on 2018-10-28 10:30:00)

mod notes:
- quack

[The Mighty Ducks]

You guys are getting good at this!

Following on from the momentum of yesterday's public hanging, the flock converges on a single member -

davesaz

It is a vicious flurry of beaks wings and claws; but it gets the job done.

You can't really see a whole lot through the carnage but you're about 82% sure he was a goose.

davesaz has been lynched.
he was a

Mafia Loud 2-shot Doctor

[The Mighty Ducks]

It is now night four.
This phase will end in (expired on 2018-10-30 10:30:00)

If you would like an accelerated phase, please PM this account.

[The Mighty Ducks]

0.o

Flavor incoming because James sucks
But know that Tchill, the Vanilla Townie, got his goose (erm, duck) cooked night 4.
Thread remains locked until PMs are verified. Please stand by.

[The Mighty Ducks]

Day 5 has begun.
It takes 3 to achieve a lynch.
It will end on November 5, 8:15 PM Central Time.

[Reundo]

Mmm... I was planning to quick vote nonny today, but alas. My N4 target was Una, and I detected motion around him. I was hoping for an innocent since it'll prove there was no way he'd make the kill unless there were two ninjas (extremely unlikely), but this complicates things a lot. This is actually more revealing than I initially realized since I only found out after I got the result and skimmed through the Normal guidelines that a mafia member can't kill AND perform an additional night action in the same night. That means the only world in which nonny is a scum PR (thus killing Tchill and targeting Una) in my case is if she has a multitasking modifier, which is pretty specific and uncommon in its own right. And the question begs that if she is a scum PR then why wouldn't she target anyone N3? I can't think of a reason why she'd holster her shot there.

My N2 action also makes a lot of sense in the context of scum!Una. We know that dave targeted Flavor, and it seemed like FA probably roleblocked him as well (it was unlikely FA would've targeted Una anyways due to one of his comments he made earlier). That means the only PR that could've targeted him was Gamma, but that would imply that A)He didn't check anyone N1, which I guess has its pros and cons and B)That he checked a well-townread player over a claimed PR, which seems considerably less likely to me.

I feel that FA/dave/Una also has more synergy than FA/dave/nonny. FA feels like the type who would distance from both of their partners -- I thought it was a little weird how he'd shade dave yet hardly mention nonny at all. By contrast, he makes sure to mention Una multiple times through his ISO, and a lot of the things he points out as "scummy" from Una don't even make sense. It feels like he was just forcing a scum-read, prioritizing distancing himself from his partner over reading him honestly. I always had a tinkling that when he mentioned that CT/Una was the scum team that one of them were scum. Davesaz also makes it a point to reference Una's posts as well, except this time to push him as town. Some of the interactions between Una and davesaz are wonky, but otherwise I feel it makes sense for the scum team to collectively mention each other / distance than for davesaz an FA to decide to distance directly while both ignoring nonny completely for the most part.

Nonny also had some shreds of towniness that I looked over / brushed off in the past. I thought her moments of town-reading me D3 were off, but I always excused it as scum!her trying to get me off of her by getting on my side when most of the town was scum-reading me. I thought her D3 vote on davesaz was distancing at first, but she didn't really have much reason to distance there, and double down when Flavor mentioned a team of me/davesaz/nonny. A lot of things in her ISO still bug me, most notably why she voted me over davesaz despite him being her D2 vote, but it's definitely not impossible for me to view her as town here.

I think scum didn't quick-hammer nonny D3. It's something that I found hard to believe at first, but with how inactive scum have been (and how dave has had long stretches of time where he literally couldn't post IIRC) I don't think it's out of the ball park. There's also the fact that scum!nonny would've 100% won D4 if she just waited a few hours. CT literally said he'd hammer if both Una and nonny decided not to jump off my wagon, and it's highly unlikely Una would've changed his mind at the last second, yet instead she decided to hammer her own partner apparently? I'm not really buying it. I guess it'll make sense if she just didn't read that post, but that would've been a pretty big mistake on her part, whereas I could see why a 3-scum quickhammer would be hard to orchestrate, especially considering dave's inactivity was IRL rather than mere lurking if he's to be believed.

There's some room for nonny to be scum FMPOV, but that would require her to have a multitasking modifier AND decide to save her shot for N4 instead of N3 for some reason AND miss the opportunity to hammer me for the win D4... it'll require jumping through a lot of hoops and hurdles. I couldn't see anything but scum!nonny before today, but from last night's check I feel like a lot of the pieces are finally coming together. A lot of things still irk me about her ISO, especially regarding her reads/behavior towards FA and dave, but I don't think the night actions or the hammer on dave would make sense from scum!nonny. That would mean scum missed a big opportunity for a game-winning hammer D3, especially considering how long nonny was in quick-hammer range, but that's more plausible then nonny hammering davesaz when it was clear CT was going to inevitably hammer me anyways. I find some of the conversations between davesaz and Una weird from a scum pairing, but that's pretty much the only thing giving me pause w/regards to a FA/dave/Una team.

The last scum is most likely Una at this point imo, but there's still a few things I'd like to think over first. I intend to try to use the full stretch of our deadline though, so if anyone has any questions/comments/concerns about my train of thought or about my role or whatever feel free to hmu.

[UnaBombaH]

I'll use some time on this later.
Obviously didn't move last night, and since there really shouldn't be any more roles, from my PoV reundo is certainly scum with that fake result. So there's really no reason for me not to vote there, MyLo or not.

VOTE: reundo

What I will say before work, is that you shouldn't let paranoia get the better of you CT and nonny.
Just because Chill got mad at me because of how stubborn I was, there's still three gamedays worth of content showing you that I'm clearly town.
My read towards dave was very much biased from the MOMENT Chill did that spam of posts.
It felt like he was finally making the effort to push for a win, and I usually spot his scumagendas better than anyone. There are only a few players I can really accurately "soulread" on this site, and Chill has been one of them. Well, I have to admit now, that my read towards him here was shamefully forced and affected by other players actions and reads. This lead to a dead-end of convoluted readpatterns and circular logic, and to be fair, Chill wasn't very easy to reason with yesterday either..
..but yeah, I failed yesterday. We can discuss that aftergame.

If I wanted to WIFOM it up, I'd simply say that scum!Una would've done at least two things completely different this game.
1) Not leave Boon alive for any more than a night (at max)
2) I would've bussed dave in a hearbeat yesterday.
I have a vast history of playing with/against Boon on site, and I have a solid trackrecord of bussing.
If I really cared about appearences (=was scum), I would've bussed dave harder than a sloth crossing a motorway.
We would be in this exactly same situation, but none of you would've even seen Chill soft any suspicions towards me.
Instead I went the way harder route and risked the whole game by going against reason in a situation where I had absolutely no reason to..? Nope.

I'm uninformed here, and got dragged down by my pride and paranoia yesterday.
If you want to make an educated vote, use some time towards my ISO and you see I have had 0 agenda this game.
You'll see I was calling FA and reundo scum early enough (as well as that Vengeshot-pool.. )
I do not need to "case" scum!reundo here - that has been made multiple times already!

[UnaBombaH]

My N4 target was Una, and I detected motion around him. I was hoping for an innocent since it'll prove there was no way he'd make the kill unless there were two ninjas (extremely unlikely), but this complicates things a lot.

I know this is fake and therefore hard to make seem real...but this makes no sense from town!reundo PoV.
If your main suspicion was going towards nonny, you'd check there 100% of the time for the guilty.
Your claimed role doesn't give out hard guilties until this late to the game, and somehow you decided to not check your #1 suspect? Seems legit.
From your uninformed perspective, CT could still be scum.
So getting an inno on one slot is never as valuable as getting a guilty.
But hey, this does make sense from your PoV, since you are scum.
You saw one more way out when me and Chill started to throw down yesterday, and decided to bank it all on a faked guilty.