Mini Normal 2035 : Duck Mafia Part 1 : GAME OVER

[UnaBombaH]

The last scum is most likely Una at this point imo, but there's still a few things I'd like to think over first. I intend to try to use the full stretch of our deadline though, so if anyone has any questions/comments/concerns about my train of thought or about my role or whatever feel free to hmu.

..and especially this is just..wrong.
If you really had a guilty on me, you'd KNOW I am scum.
No need to not vote, or play the "politics".
You are trying to please nonny and CT here, instead of being true to your claimed role and alignment..

[nonny]

My N4 target was Una, and I detected motion around him. I was hoping for an innocent since it'll prove there was no way he'd make the kill unless there were two ninjas (extremely unlikely), but this complicates things a lot.

I know this is fake and therefore hard to make seem real...but this makes no sense from town!reundo PoV.
If your main suspicion was going towards nonny, you'd check there 100% of the time for the guilty.
Your claimed role doesn't give out hard guilties until this late to the game, and somehow you decided to not check your #1 suspect? Seems legit.
From your uninformed perspective, CT could still be scum.
So getting an inno on one slot is never as valuable as getting a guilty.
But hey, this does make sense from your PoV, since you are scum.
You saw one more way out when me and Chill started to throw down yesterday, and decided to bank it all on a faked guilty.

Agree. Don’t see why Reundo wouldn’t double check me. Only hesitation is the posted mod error followed by reundo “result” change, in a way it confirms reundo unless there’s another explanation.

Anyone else think Chill was a weird night kill from scum? Scum!una would have left Tchill because his hard push was working against him, he was looking like possible scum. Even with his push being justified I could see a push to mislynch him going through.

[nonny]

Conclusion:
I’m pretty certain that the scum team is FA, Dave, and Reundo. Full stop.

Hmmm wonder if flavor just nailed the scum team day 3?

[UnaBombaH]

Anyone else think Chill was a weird night kill from scum? Scum!una would have left Tchill because his hard push was working against him, he was looking like possible scum. Even with his push being justified I could see a push to mislynch him going through

I wanted to say this too in my first post, but thought it would sound too biased coming from me..

I'm not afraid to go 1v1 with Chill no matter his alignment (or mine for that matter), and scum!Una would've killed nonny yesterday.

[UnaBombaH]

Conclusion:
I’m pretty certain that the scum team is FA, Dave, and Reundo. Full stop.

Hmmm wonder if flavor just nailed the scum team day 3?

Boon has a habit of being able to do stuff like that.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I initially thought that whether Reundo had an innocent or guilty going into this day didn't matter because it would be not instantly believed either way, however I soon realized that knowing someone else is scum would obviously be beneficial to a town PR. Therefore, it makes little sense that he would check Una over Nonny.

[nonny]

Two stupid questions: What does a mafia doctor do?
Second question to anyone besides reundo, anyone else heard of a scum PR not being able to make the kill? Cause thats a first hearing that for me so want to fact check.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I'm not sure if the mod error involved Reundo at all. He could have just pretended he was given false results to make his claim seem more realistic, perhaps even knowing what the mod error was due to being informed. Nonny, scum power roles generally cannot perform a kill if they use their ability unless they have a multitasking modifier. Basically a roleblocker can kill or roleblock, but not both.

[Completly Trustworthy]

I don't think there is any real reason to believe there is a third power role unless the town has an enormous amount of power. Una and Nonny, can you claim whether you are a VT or a non VT?

[Completly Trustworthy]

Also, I think that Una made a post where they pointed out what the lack of hammering meant at some point in day 3, so I believe they probably would have tried really hard to lynch Nonny for the win if they had been scum. It's just hard to believe your story Reundo.

[nonny]

I'm not sure if the mod error involved Reundo at all. He could have just pretended he was given false results to make his claim seem more realistic, perhaps even knowing what the mod error was due to being informed. Nonny, scum power roles generally cannot perform a kill if they use their ability unless they have a multitasking modifier. Basically a roleblocker can kill or roleblock, but not both.

Yes, see that as possible too, used it as chance to fake confirm.

Hmmm okay, that may be a newer thing, or just a normal thing. Think newbies they can make a kill and use PR but obviously could be misinformed.

Reundo’s push on me not being “quick” lynched day 3 could also be an arguement made from hindsight, aka scum kicking themself for not doing it ....?

[nonny]

I don't think there is any real reason to believe there is a third power role unless the town has an enormous amount of power. Una and Nonny, can you claim whether you are a VT or a non VT?

I’ve already stated I’m vanilla, said so day 4.

[UnaBombaH]

I'm Vanilla, obv.
Motion Detector would make very little sense with a LOUD and a NINJA anyway..
The other they wouldn't even detect, and the other makes noise anyway, so..poor fakeclaim.

[nonny]

I’m not super interested in hemming and hawing for another week. CT if you had to pick now who would you say it remaining scum?

Will vote reundo unless anything changes significantly.

[Reundo]

So, there's a whole lot of bs in this recent string of posts that I need to clear up.

If I wanted to WIFOM it up, I'd simply say that scum!Una would've done at least two things completely different this game.
1) Not leave Boon alive for any more than a night (at max)
2) I would've bussed dave in a hearbeat yesterday.
I have a vast history of playing with/against Boon on site, and I have a solid trackrecord of bussing.
If I really cared about appearences (=was scum), I would've bussed dave harder than a sloth crossing a motorway.
We would be in this exactly same situation, but none of you would've even seen Chill soft any suspicions towards me.
Instead I went the way harder route and risked the whole game by going against reason in a situation where I had absolutely no reason to..? Nope.

Scum!Una certainly doesn't do either of these things. There's almost no way profii isn't the night kill N1 since he claimed PR, even if he was a novice and it wouldn't activate N1. By D2 Flavor was town-reading Una, so he wouldn't post a big enough threat to kill N2, especially with a roleblocker on hand, and him being alive would naturally cause paranoia to rise all things considered. For the second point, scum!Una knows that a lynch on me would win him the game, and he only needed one of Tchill/CT to swing over for that to happen (which almost did happen before nonny popped in). Him not bussing also wouldn't affect "appearences" considering how heavy busing is emphasized in this meta. Case in point is this game itself: Una hard defended scum yet no one even bothered to give it a second thought. If he pulled off a lynch on me yesterday, then that's great, but if he hard pushed me and flopped then he'd still garner little suspicion since, well, why would scum do something so obviously scummy? It's using WIFOM to cover up the simple fact that lynching me would've won him the game yesterday and lynching davesaz would've taken him one step backwards, and if that doesn't have

I'm uninformed here, and got dragged down by my pride and paranoia yesterday.
If you want to make an educated vote, use some time towards my ISO and you see I have had 0 agenda this game.
You'll see I was calling FA and reundo scum early enough (as well as that Vengeshot-pool.. )
I do not need to "case" scum!reundo here - that has been made multiple times already!

It's obviously not enough to merely "call someone scum". Scum actually call each other scum all the time -- the difference is that they rarely ever vote them. And Una actually liked a few of FA's posts early on and thought they promoted a "towny mindset". And if he was confident enough in scum!FA that he'd put him in his vengeshot-pool then he should've been pushing on him early D3, yet instead he was focused on pushing CT -- he was toying with the possibility of both CT/Tchill and CT/FA, which gave him the perfect excuse to push for a CT lynch (though he was considering CT/Tchill more heavily, which is significant considering they're both town). He only ends up joining the FA lynch when it's clear the lynch isn't going to go any other way, yet he was definitely pushing FA the least when compared to CT/Tchill. Una certainly isn't unique in this -- I was town-reading FA for a while too and didn't push him much during D3 either -- but he is playing up the extent to which he apparently scum-read FA. And to say he has "0 agenda" is laughable. D3 he was mostly pushing CT/Tchill instead of FA, who flipped scum. D4 he hard pushed me and gave petty excuses for not voting dave, who also flipped scum. Town end up defending scum and lynching town a lot, but to say there'd be absolutely no scum motive behind driving the lynch away from scum is just laughable.

It felt like he was finally making the effort to push for a win, and I usually spot his scumagendas better than anyone. There are only a few players I can really accurately "soulread" on this site, and Chill has been one of them. Well, I have to admit now, that my read towards him here was shamefully forced and affected by other players actions and reads. This lead to a dead-end of convoluted readpatterns and circular logic, and to be fair, Chill wasn't very easy to reason with yesterday either..
..but yeah, I failed yesterday. We can discuss that aftergame.

This is kind of out of order, but I found it important to put this last. Una's applying the same logic for why he scum-read Tchill and using it to explain why he apparently had no scum motive this game. It makes absolutely no sense. If we assume that Una is actually town here, that meant he would've thought that my alignment was likely scum, and by pushing davesaz instead of me was equivalent to pushing a lynch on town instead his scum-buddy... This is EXACTLY what Una did from my perspective when he hard pushed on me instead of davesaz. They were both passionate about lynching who they wanted D3 -- the difference was that Tchill almost always focused on probability and likely scenarios, yet Una always pushed on possibility and relied on scenarios that could've possibly explained why davesaz is town without considering their likeliness.

[Reundo]

I have a vast history of playing with/against Boon on site, and I have a solid trackrecord of bussing.

This deserves it's own post because it's honestly quite hilarious and revealing. I remembered reading a game in the past where he specifically didn't bus, and it was memorable because I remembered there was talk in the dead chat that he was likely scum specifically because of that, so I actually went digging a bit through his past scum games.

Go through these scum games from Una and look through the mod ISO and Ctrl+F "lynched" and look for the mafia lynches (or alternitavely search "lynched mafia" in the thread and try to find it through there) and count how many of the scum lynches he's actually on.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76388 (0/2)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76139 (0/2)
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=76149 (0/2)
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=74257 (both scum survived to endgame)
viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75428 (1/2)

This is almost every scum game from late 2017 he's had that isn't a Newbie, and he only bussed his partner ONCE. There's a possibility I could've missed a few games if they didn't release the mafia PT since I wasn't going to go through each and every one of his games, but this shows that, if anything, he actually has a consistent history of NOT bussing his partner. Even if there potentially were stashed away games where he bussed all his partners, he can't conceal the fact that he's had multiple scum games where he didn't bus either of his partners. This actually could potentially point to town!Una since he bussed FA this game (if he didn't straight up lie about his busing record, that is), but it was clear the lynch was going to be FA that day since not many people were hopping onto his CT/Tchill theory, whereas during D4 there was a good chance he'd get me lynched today if he pushed hard enough, so bussing davesaz in that scenario would be unoptimal, and it coincides with his meta of not busing. I have no idea what Una hoped to gain through lying about his busing record... maybe just hoping nobody actually goes and checks?

[Reundo]

My N4 target was Una, and I detected motion around him. I was hoping for an innocent since it'll prove there was no way he'd make the kill unless there were two ninjas (extremely unlikely), but this complicates things a lot.

I know this is fake and therefore hard to make seem real...but this makes no sense from town!reundo PoV.
If your main suspicion was going towards nonny, you'd check there 100% of the time for the guilty.
Your claimed role doesn't give out hard guilties until this late to the game, and somehow you decided to not check your #1 suspect? Seems legit.
From your uninformed perspective, CT could still be scum.
So getting an inno on one slot is never as valuable as getting a guilty.
But hey, this does make sense from your PoV, since you are scum.
You saw one more way out when me and Chill started to throw down yesterday, and decided to bank it all on a faked guilty.

This is actually wrong, and I'm sad to see it echoed by others in this thread. D4 I knew CT was conf-town because he didn't hammer me -- I even said this in the very first paragraph of my claim post. So literally the only scenario in which getting a "no motion" result on someone would NOT clear them from my perspective is if there were two ninjas. I wasn't about to bank this game on scum having two ninjas -- that would just be way too OP -- and while the possibility of there being a multitasking PR is certainly low it definitely isn't impossible for scum to have three 2-shot PRs here, and considering both flipped scum have modifiers it would make sense for the third one to have one as well. It was 100% the best play for me to aim for a "no motion" result here considering I already knew CT was town.

The last scum is most likely Una at this point imo, but there's still a few things I'd like to think over first. I intend to try to use the full stretch of our deadline though, so if anyone has any questions/comments/concerns about my train of thought or about my role or whatever feel free to hmu.

..and especially this is just..wrong.
If you really had a guilty on me, you'd KNOW I am scum.
No need to not vote, or play the "politics".
You are trying to please nonny and CT here, instead of being true to your claimed role and alignment..

It wasn't a hard guilty on Una. Like I said in the first post this day phase, I was considering whether or not nonny could've been a multi-tasking scum role. I didn't think it was very likely, but it certainly wasn't impossible. I wanted some time to make sure I wasn't missing something major and didn't really see the point in voting right away. If I wanted to please nonny especially I would've just hard cleared her immediately by voting Una. Leaving open the possibility of "well, maybe nonny could still be scum here" would do the exact opposite of that.

[Reundo]

Anyone else think Chill was a weird night kill from scum? Scum!una would have left Tchill because his hard push was working against him, he was looking like possible scum. Even with his push being justified I could see a push to mislynch him going through.

You thought Tchill had a chance of being mislynched after hard pushing davesaz from completely out of the blue? CT and Tchill were both impossible lynches after the davesaz flip, because they'd have absolutely zero reason not to hammer me. Tchill started growing suspicious of Una towards the end of D4, and it also wasn't clear what his read of me was since Tchill did admit he liked some of my points. Scum!Una's goal today is to get me lynched, and Tchill is a roadblock towards his goal for both of those reasons. It's the best kill for Una since it has the best chance of getting me lynched today, while simultaneously being the worst kill for scum!me since I'd be getting rid of a potential ally.

Also, I think that Una made a post where they pointed out what the lack of hammering meant at some point in day 3, so I believe they probably would have tried really hard to lynch Nonny for the win if they had been scum. It's just hard to believe your story Reundo.

I think they had a better chance of lynching you that day considering you just withdrew your doc claim. Iirc me and Flavor were the only ones really town-reading you that day, whereas with nonny nobody was really talking that much about scum-reading her or lynching her, at least not to the same extent as you were.

I'm Vanilla, obv.
Motion Detector would make very little sense with a LOUD and a NINJA anyway..
The other they wouldn't even detect, and the other makes noise anyway, so..poor fakeclaim.

Literally the same things could be said about a Consecutive Watcher yet that role exists in this game too.

[Reundo]

*non-consecutive watcher

[Reundo]

The night actions already work against the idea of scum!nonny, but Una's latest posts are drenched with a lot of AtE ("don't let paranoia get the best of you", "I have had 0 agenda this game", "I'm uniformed here") and there's a lot of sketchy things he does to try to clear his name, like going so far as to lie about his own busing record. These are just not things a townie does, and I'm not going to bank the game on scum!nonny being multitasking with all that's happened this phase.

VOTE: UnaBombaH

[Reundo]

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=76149 (0/2)

Went back to double-check and this should actually be (0/1) since there was only two scum that game. Everything else is correct, though.

[nonny]

Interesting. But you wrote off your result on Una day 2 because you thought gamma targeted him too. So now you’re saying they just performed the night kills.

[Reundo]

If I wanted to WIFOM it up, I'd simply say that scum!Una would've done at least two things completely different this game.
1) Not leave Boon alive for any more than a night (at max)
2) I would've bussed dave in a hearbeat yesterday.
I have a vast history of playing with/against Boon on site, and I have a solid trackrecord of bussing.
If I really cared about appearences (=was scum), I would've bussed dave harder than a sloth crossing a motorway.
We would be in this exactly same situation, but none of you would've even seen Chill soft any suspicions towards me.
Instead I went the way harder route and risked the whole game by going against reason in a situation where I had absolutely no reason to..? Nope.

Scum!Una certainly doesn't do either of these things. There's almost no way profii isn't the night kill N1 since he claimed PR, even if he was a novice and it wouldn't activate N1. By D2 Flavor was town-reading Una, so he wouldn't post a big enough threat to kill N2, especially with a roleblocker on hand, and him being alive would naturally cause paranoia to rise all things considered. For the second point, scum!Una knows that a lynch on me would win him the game, and he only needed one of Tchill/CT to swing over for that to happen (which almost did happen before nonny popped in). Him not bussing also wouldn't affect "appearences" considering how heavy busing is emphasized in this meta. Case in point is this game itself: Una hard defended scum yet no one even bothered to give it a second thought. If he pulled off a lynch on me yesterday, then that's great, but if he hard pushed me and flopped then he'd still garner little suspicion since, well, why would scum do something so obviously scummy? It's using WIFOM to cover up the simple fact that lynching me would've won him the game yesterday and lynching davesaz would've taken him one step backwards, and if that doesn't haveIt's using WIFOM to cover up the simple fact that lynching me would've won him the game yesterday and lynching davesaz would've taken him one step backwards, and if that doesn't have

scum motive then I don't know what does.

EBWOP. I don't know how that last part got cut out.

[Reundo]

Interesting. But you wrote off your result on Una day 2 because you thought gamma targeted him too. So now you’re saying they just performed the night kills.

That was my N2 result, so I couldn't have known that D2. During D3 itself I kept it in the back of my mind but I didn't pay too much attention to it since there's a possibility either Gamma watched him or there were more PRs in hiding, scum or otherwise. But yeah, since I tracked motion around him both N2 and N4 it's less likely he's being targeted and more likely he's doing the targeting himself. Post-FA flip I thought for sure they'd just have FA do all the killing since he's a ninja, but since FA couldn't kill and RB simultaneously I could see why they'd pass the kill to Una to let FA roleblock, especially since there was hardly any suspicion on Una at the time.

[The Mighty Ducks]

QUACK