Mini Normal 2033: Dolphins (Game Over)

[Tommy]

VOTE: DVa

Sheeping Alchemist.

[Tommy]

Thanks. Helps go read the rules. 

Prob Town.

I disagree. It's too easy to fake.

I honestly think it's likely that Scioness saw a red role PM and replaced out in the pre-game, and I feel like the others who also voted that slot feel the same way as I do.

I do. Here's an example of a game where she gives up as scum:

viewtopic.php?f=52&t=75972&start=1825

What about you, ProHawk? Serious vote?

[Tommy]

I like GuerillaWoo and Doughboy's push on EzekelRAGE. It's clear that at least Alchemist21 and I were serious, so why didn't EzekelRAGE vote one of us?

VOTE: EzekelRAGE

@DVa: I don't know how I would have checked that, but if this is about ongoing games let's change the subject.

[Tommy]

I don't think we know that.

[Tommy]

EzekelRAGE can be town for now.

VOTE: Saudade

Content please.

[Tommy]

@GuerillaWoo I think there's some confusion about this:

Are you guys serious about the Dva thing in regards to the replacement? Is so that is scummy to me.

It's ambiguous. You could read it to mean that EzekelRAGE thinks DVa is scummy; but in fact I'm pretty sure he meant the DVa

wagon

was scummy.

[Tommy]

GuerillaWoo, why LTVNGambit?

Gamma Emerald, do you think Saudade's posts are coming from town?

[Tommy]

I can see that.

[Tommy]

Gamma Emerald, I asked you a question in post 95.

[Tommy]

Feels like town v town to me.

[Tommy]

DVa, is Saudade your only scum read?

[Tommy]

opportunistic jump on the wagon

There was barely a wagon to begin with it was just a handful of random votes.

Thanks mate, but I was fourth on the wagon.

I thought the case on GuerillaWoo is pretty good until I got to post 258, which is very town.

I don't believe either of Saudade's 'town slips' about the set-up.

Not ready to go back to DVa yet. Let's get some more posts from them first. Don't think there's much of a case on LTVNGambit either.

[Tommy]

What would scum him D2 if he was wrong on someone?

Probably something like this:

I missed it =]

He's trying to construct a persona who doesn't care and isn't paying attention - see also the multiple faked mistakes about the number of scum and the existence of day chat.

Also considering he hasn’t moved to the Guerill wagon to try and push a counterwagon to his own, I’m sure he’s Town.

What if his buddy is already on the wagon?

Now to GuerillaWoo:

What do you find Town about 285?

It was 258, not 285. The townie bit is the moment when he changes track and starts considering that LTVNGambit could be town after all:

It's actually pretty weird that I'm having to defend unvoting someone under the accusation that I didn't in fact unvote, I actually voted. This is a bad read. Actually it's the reason I'm having some doubts about you being scum. You rarely see scum make bad pushes like this. The possibility that you're bad town exists.

You can see his thought process unfolding. He's second-guessing himself. It's hard to fake.

@GuerillaWoo: what happened, man? You were town-reading me 24 hours ago and now you're voting me? Is it because I'm in a 'weird unspoken relationship' or are you sheeping Saudade?

[Tommy]

Guerilla, can you please move your vote to the player who you think is most likely to be scum?

[Tommy]

Okay, that'll do.

[Tommy]

Was your question serious? No, I wouldn't say I was feeling uncomfortable.

[Tommy]

EzekelRAGE, who is your biggest scum read after Doughboy?

[Tommy]

I'm conflicted. Saudade now seems to be trying to sort people. But I find it hard to believe he'd genuinely get the number of scum wrong twice in a row after it had already come up.

[Tommy]

The first time I think you commented about it. Something like 'idk the 3rd one'. The second time he was talking about lynching two scum and then getting mislynched I think.

[Tommy]

Guerilla, I think he's really not seeing it.

Saudade, what does that mean?

[Tommy]

UNVOTE: Saudade

I think that as scum, he would have lazily tunnelled me all day, and he hasn't. I don't know how he managed those town slips. Maybe they're real, maybe he's lying town, I don't know. But as a case on their own, they're pretty thin. I'm going to do some more reading and make a decision about the next move.

[Tommy]

I think that as scum, he would have lazily tunnelled me all day, and he hasn't.

Really?

Yeah. He's trying to sort people other than me in posts 349, 352, 353, 356, 357, 358, 363, 372, 381 and 382. Like you, I read his scum game. He just tunnels his lynchbait for most of day 1, then a late bus puts him in a good position for the second day. This is a different style. Right now I'm leaning town, and I'm as surprised about that as you are.

[Tommy]

I just isolated everyone in turn, and all the people who've posted substantial content seem at least somewhat townish at the moment. Which probably means someone is fooling me. Still null are DVa, ProHawk and Flubbernugget. I would park my vote on the DVa wagon, but he's so new he just looks like an easy target. And I'd have ProHawk for company.

[Tommy]

@Flubbernugget: Sajj hasn't posted anywhere on the site since before this game started.

[Tommy]

VOTE: DVa

He may be new, but he's following Albert B Rampage's famous scum guide to the letter.

[Tommy]

*they

Sorry.

[Tommy]

I'll have a dig.

[Tommy]

I completely misremembered it. It was Lord Gurgi, not ABR, and it's far subtler than what I remembered, which was just: don't post a lot, try to make your contributions relevant.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... d_Inaction

I still think DVa is a better bet than Guerilla.

[Tommy]

LTVNGambit, I can't do much about the rest of the Guerilla wagon, but your vote appears to me to be based on a misreading of one of his posts. Please take a moment to recheck it with fresh eyes.

[Tommy]

Would you consider a DVa wagon?

[Tommy]

Want to switch your vote over then? You're not getting much traction on Gambit.

[Tommy]

EzekelRAGE, what do you think of DVA?

[Tommy]

With friends like these...

[Tommy]

Some implies more than one and you’re only shading the guy who thinks you are scum?

It was a strange process of elimination, wasn't it? He said Gamma Emerald was null, but then talked as if he'd ruled Gamma out.

[Tommy]

UNVOTE: DVa

Flubbernugget, when do you think you'll be caught up?

[Tommy]

I did remember he did a weird shift in calm to rage which felt fake.

Can you find that?

[Tommy]

Okay, you're nearly there. I'm inclined to give you another day.

[Tommy]

You've only got seven to go. See how much more you can slam out. It would be good to have some up-to-date views from you about day 1 before we start flipping people.

Meanwhile, I suggest we get a claim but don't hammer.

VOTE: DVa

DVa, please claim your role.

[Tommy]

Can people who aren't on either of the two main wagons either switch votes or convince three or four others to join them?

[Tommy]

I'm feeling better about this wagon now that Saudade has jumped ship.

[Tommy]

DVA Opted to vote Gamma instead of Gorilla despite being on the cliff here

That shows DVa is more worried about how the vote looks than about putting it somewhere it'll have any affect.

[Tommy]

Who would you lynch, Flubbernugget?

[Tommy]

Hey wilky!

[Tommy]

Where I'm at is a bit lost, honestly. I have town reads on everyone but the lurkers. I can't remember what it was about EzekelRAGE that I found towny. Maybe it was just the rage... I'll take another look at his ISO tomorrow and give you some more analysis.

[Tommy]

UNVOTE: Wilky

My vote was based on the fact that DVa was lurking, which they said was because they didn't have time to play. The replace-out gives that a lot of weight.

Just took another look at EzekelRAGE. In my experience, when two players get into a flame war about some inconsequential thing, they're both town. I expect scum to pick accusations that they can sell.

@Wilky

, you say that you've derailed a previous game with a manufactured row. Can you link it?

I don't believe the row in this game has derailed much. We've largely ignored EzekelRAGE and Doughboy. I suppose if I'm looking for scum motivations for EzekelRAGE, there is the fact that he's been able to avoid giving analysis except in connection to the fight.

@EzekelRAGE

, can you reread all posts that don't mention your row with Doughboy and tell me what reads you can form from them on all players? Or on all players except Doughboy, let's say.

Unofficial vote count:

• GuerillaWoo (3) - LTVNGambit, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald
  Wilky (2) - ProHawk, Doughboy
  EzekelRAGE (1) - Wilky
  Doughboy (1) - EzekelRAGE
  ProHawk (1) - Flubbernugget
  Not Voting (3) - Saudade, GuerillaWoo, Tommy

@GuerillaWoo

: why did you vote Flubbernugget? Why did you unvote him?

VOTE: prohawk

Flashwagon?

Yeah okay.

VOTE: ProHawk

My entire case on him is that he lurks.

[Tommy]

@Mod, are you going to replace LTVNGambit? Will you be extending the deadline?

[Tommy]

I’d lynch him if a wagon formed on him though.

If you switch your vote to ProHawk, he'll have three votes, tied with GuerillaWoo for biggest wagon. Unless I've miscounted.

I think we're here:

• GuerillaWoo (3) - LTVNGambit, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald
  Wilky (1) - ProHawk
  EzekelRAGE (2) - Wilky, Doughboy
  Doughboy (1) - EzekelRAGE
  ProHawk (2) - Flubbernugget, Tommy
  Not Voting (3) - Saudade, GuerillaWoo

I don't think I've ever seen a policy lynch lead to a win. The better way to deal with EzekelRAGE is to filter him out. Literally never quote him or address him. You say he's the one continuing it, but that isn't the whole truth. Either of you can stop this.

[Tommy]

Thanks for the link to the old game, wilky. I took a quick look at your ISO in it, and one key difference I see between that and the situation here is emotion: EzekelRAGE's frustration is palpable, whereas you were just repeating calmly that you'd been misrepped. Do you feel that the RAGE is fake? By the way, now that we're discussing the feud as a part of your case, there's no point asking the two of them to drop it. Won't work.

Saudade and GuerillaWoo, can you get on a wagon please? In the worst case we need time to run someone up, wait for a claim, wait for a counter-claim and then switch to someone else.

[Tommy]

Oh and welcome tor.

Seconded! Where are my manners?

[Tommy]

I can give you my process with Saudade or I can do something not boring and pointless.

Give him the process. You've evaded that question so many times that I'm starting to take an interest too.

[Tommy]

GuerillaWoo, wait until your movie is over. Wait until you've charged your phone. Then give me the whole story.

[Tommy]

I honestly think it's likely that Scioness saw a red role PM and replaced out in the pre-game

how much do we like this reasoning?

I liked it at the time, but since then I realised that Sajj flaked from the whole site. So now I think it's null.

GuerillaWoo, thanks for your summary of Saudade. I went through much the same process. Speaking of which:

i am the best

Evening, champ. Put a vote down, will you?

what the fucking cringe is this

You don't find my Saudade U-turn genuine?

like the dude literally magically appears in the thread minutes after someone mentions him, after saying nothing for what, days?

Ooh I love this.

lurker tommy

Seems a bit unfair.

Albert B Rampage's famous scum guide

the what

That turned out to be a boo-boo.

Can people who aren't on either of the two main wagons either switch votes or convince three or four others to join them?

what the fuck is this

That was part of my ongoing attempt to get someone under the hammer in a timely fashion. I think we could end up with a last-minute flashwagon on a poor compromise candidate if we don't move to the end of the day with a bit of time on the clock.

[Tommy]

gb is towny as fuck

Who?

[Tommy]

sorry, doughboy

Oh right, yeah. I agree.

What didn't you like about the post where I changed my mind on Saudade?

[Tommy]

Heading to bed, but I'd love to know which of my other posts you think are scummy (apart from 538).

[Tommy]

(@Toranaga)

[Tommy]

Yeah that's fair. My DVa case was weak sauce. My ProHawk case isn't much better.

[Tommy]

I think this is where we're at, but I could be wrong because we haven't had a real vote count in 15 pages:

• GuerillaWoo - Toranaga, Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, EzekelRAGE
  EzekelRAGE - Doughboy
  ProHawk - Flubbernugget, Tommy, wilky
  Flubbernugget - Saudade
  Tommy - ProHawk
  Not Voting - GuerillaWoo

I believe that Ausuka talked to Doughboy, and I don't think she would have done that if either he or EzekelRAGE was scum.

Now, could ProHawk's sudden change in tone be genuine? Unlikely I think, since he claims that the main reason he's upset is that people resort to insults, but (in another new development) he's become personally abusive himself. Kudos to EzekelRAGE for calling him on this inconsistency. His 'Personal Rant' post is more likely an appeal to emotion - he tells us that 'life takes a lot of time and leaves me with little for other things' because he wants us to feel sorry for him. He hopes we'll forget that his alignment is unchanged whether or not we feel sorry for him.

This is piss-poor considering DVa never said they didn't have time to play.

Yes they did:

Just because I do not have a lot of time to spam posts and I do not fluffpost does not mean I am new.

Would me replacing out change your mind on my slot?

Not now, no. It would look like you'd been caught and were giving up.

I think his votes and vote changes have been very opportunistic.

That's fair. I was at sea when I voted DVa, and still at sea when I voted you. Just wandering disconsolately about looking for lurker wagons to jump on. Happier now though.

@Alchemist21, do you still feel ProHawk is null?

[Tommy]

Why?

[Tommy]

Just checked Ausuka's rules post. Your vote is invalid.

[Tommy]

You still think Doughboy is scum after the mod's intervention?

[Tommy]

Thank you for choosing Tommy's Unofficial Vote Count:

• GuerillaWoo - Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald, EzekelRAGE
  EzekelRAGE - Doughboy
  ProHawk - Flubbernugget, Tommy, wilky, GuerillaWoo
  Flubbernugget - Saudade, Toranaga
  Tommy - ProHawk

Toranaga, what happened? You made this big case on ProHawk. Flubbernugget was null to you. Where did your vote come from?

[Tommy]

But you still feel Guerilla is the better lynch?

[Tommy]

stop being a pussy and vote me then

Uh huh.

Got an associative tell for you all: I suggest that Toranaga's behaviour strengthens the case on ProHawk.

Toranaga posted a lot of stuff about how ProHawk is scum. Then ProHawk made a major swerve in approach. Then Toranaga did the same. My theory is:

1) Toranaga arrives and sees that ProHawk's play has been scummy.
2) Toranaga tells ProHawk to change his approach and warns him that he (Toranaga) will need to distance himself.
3) Toranaga proceeds to trash ProHawk's play in the game thread.
4) ProHawk makes an abrupt and unconvincing change in tone, which attracts votes and makes him the leading wagon. Toranaga hasn't anticipated this, and now has a difficult choice.
5) Toranaga elects not to bus his partner, choosing the unpalatable option of jumping on a wagon that he'd hitherto set up as a null read.

[Tommy]

Because it's not just 'at the time' that Toronaga is worried about. Early distancing can give you a sweet legacy in the endgame when your less competent partner does finally get himself lynched.

[Tommy]

You think my theory is so wrong that I can't possibly believe it?

[Tommy]

Clever scum. Doughboy soft-claimed cop during twilight.

[Tommy]

I’m down for a gamma lynch at some point but I think rage will be confirmed scum tomorrow.

[Tommy]

So I'm thinking at least one of the really competent people in the game is scum. But I'm going to bed, so I'll have to look into it tomorrow.

[Tommy]

But kudos to Doughboy for drawing the kill.

[Tommy]

Going to address my wagon first. Gamma Emerald, what is your case on me? Alchemist21, is your entire case based on my conspiracy theory post? Please can you put into words why you think that post is scummy?

The final ProHawk wagon is a good lynch pool. I'm not interested in killing GuerillaWoo or Toranaga. Gamma Emerald is probably town because he introduced the idea that the mod's intervention cleared Doughboy. wilky has contributed a lot of useful pro-town material, so I'm leaning town there.

I think wilky is right that Flubbernugget is distancing himself from the kill. Also I find it surprising that Flubbernugget hasn't voted yet, considering how much shade he's thrown at EzekelRAGE.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

That's L-1.

[Tommy]

UNVOTE:

[Tommy]

GuerillaWoo, do you think the mod would have intervened in Doughboy and EzekelRAGE's fight if either of them had been scum?

[Tommy]

Where’d my vote go

Where'd your case go?

[Tommy]

Where’d my vote go

Where'd your case go?

[Tommy]

that's the first and last time I try reaction testing like this lmao

Toranaga, does this refer to your hammer? Can you talk me through how the reaction test would have worked?

[Tommy]

Yeah I don't think mods enforce rules based on player alignment, though I sorta missed this. Where'd the mod intervene?

You're right that a mod would normally take great care not to treat people differently based on their alignment, but Ausuka wasn't enforcing a rule here: she appears to have made the judgement that Doughboy and EzekelRAGE were hurting the game with an irrelevant argument:

I’ve been instructed by the mod not the bring up anything from other games as it relates to rage. That’s the 2nd game where the mod has influenced my play. I’ll still talk about the lying cause that’s actually not about that game, but I won’t talk about anything else regarding it.

I'm betting she said something similar to EzekelRAGE too. If he had been scum, I think Ausuka would have assumed his behaviour was a deliberate attempt to rile Doughboy. To the extent that he was abusive, she could have warned him about that, but she wouldn't have told the two of them to avoid the subject entirely, because she would have seen that EzekelRAGE was playing to his win condition and Doughboy was falling for EzekelRAGE's tactic. By treating the argument as though it was unrelated to this game, she inadvertently cleared them both.

@Toranaga: thanks, that makes sense.

[Tommy]

Toranaga, can you answer Wilky's question from 1094?

Guerilla, Flubbernugget gets a pass for today and then tomorrow we look at the actions from tonight and make another call. We can't make a more detailed plan than that because it helps the scum choose their night actions.

Saudade, why is Toranaga a good candidate for scum?

[Tommy]

You don't think your hammer looked at all scummy, Toranaga?

[Tommy]

Also you've now been asked three times to answer 1094.

[Tommy]

Also you've now been asked three times to answer 1094.

[Tommy]

Guerilla, here's something you said early on about Saudade:

When I first voted for you I legit just wanted to gauge your reaction

This wasn't true, was it? It was a policy vote, no?

[Tommy]

So you're saying that, at the moment you voted, you didn't want a policy lynch?

[Tommy]

By process of elimination, I think it's two of Saudade, Gamma Emerald and Flubbernugget.

[Tommy]

Everyone else seems town. I only doubt the claim for that reason.

[Tommy]

Why are you voting me?

[Tommy]

EzekelRAGE is town because the mod intervened in his fight. Alchemist21, Toronaga and wilky are town because they always post pro-town stuff. GuerillaWoo is more complicated but keeps town-telling.

[Tommy]

Am I in your scum pool because of vote count analysis?

[Tommy]

Every one of Toranaga's posts looks to me like he's genuinely trying to solve the game. I'll tell you what, let's turn this round: you tell me which ones you find scummy and I'll tell you why I don't.

For Woo I'll find you some examples.

[Tommy]

Right now I think we should collectively wait.

Actually maybe I should be reexamining all my reads.

These two, five minutes apart, are a good example. The dude's got no side.

Here's another one:

Honestly I can't even get a beat on Ezekel. He's gone on with this so long I can't make heads or tails of him. I understand you're frustrated but I'd rather hold off on lynching him right. I get the sense that this D1 is barreling towards a lynch just out of frustration.

Trying to solve it. Doesn't have all the answers.

Same in this one:

I'm just mulling over this exchange rn. I honestly don't know if he's lying or not here. Like I think he genuinely doesn't understand that it wasn't directed at him, but I dunno, he could just be saving face. Like he knew he was lying earlier and now he's trying to play up the VI card? Does that make sense?

I dunno. UNVOTE: for now. Like if he were scum, what would the point be in in blatantly drawing attention to himself with these big VI gestures? If I were to assume he were scum this would be a very public and risky gambit play.

Although it's not like I haven't seen bigger gambits, I've used the VI routine myself, and AS TOWN.

Legit don't know what to think here. Is he really not seeing it? How? Is anyone else here reading that post up there the way he is?

[Tommy]

I don’t think so rn
While he’s suspicious, I don’t he’s been pushing scum agenda like I’m used to from scum!Flubber

I don't like "While he's suspicious" here. Like, why add that?

Gamma doesn't always look to me like he's trying to solve the game. His case on me was to sheep Flubbernugget. His case on ProHawk was 'I think he's rather defensive'. He case on Guerilla was to sheep Saudade.

He's often vague. For example in this post:

I think Ezekiel’s read on me is town indicative
Not for how he’s reading me, but for how he phrased it

I'd expect him to say what it was about the phrasing that he liked.

I don't know why someone would post this as town:

In other news I see like 3 different back and forths and I have not really much to say on any of them

He'd just posted about my Saudade vote but I guess he felt it didn't look like he was taking enough interest in the game. So he posted again straight away to add literally nothing. To look like he was trying, I suppose.

It's a stretch, this case, because he has some pro-town posts as well. Everyone does, so scum are playing great. But Gamma seems the least towny.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[Tommy]

Now that is bizarre. I've just spent the whole afternoon engaging your posts. What do you believe has gone unanswered? Also, and not for the first time of asking, who is in your lynch pool and how did you come up with it?

[Tommy]

it’s all the people I don’t townread.

And who are they?

[Tommy]

You mean 1182? So you have four equally scummy scumreads?

[Tommy]

I guess I am a bit. My latest round of ISOs, I was reading as uncharitably as I could in order to generate some leads.

[Tommy]

Mod, Gamma Emerald is voting me.

[Tommy]

the fact he can't answer my question from the beginning of day makes me think he doesn't have an answer and it was scum trying to lay foundations for a later push.

You mean 1094? He did eventually answer that, and quite well. Is that all you have on him?

[Tommy]

saudade actually spewing himself not scum with gamma

Talk me through this please?

[Tommy]

Mod, can you prod Flubbernugget please?

[Tommy]

Saudade, are you voting for wilky only because he thinks Flubbernugget is town?

[Tommy]

What's wrong with voting Gamma?

[Tommy]

I don't think he's really scum-hunting.

[Tommy]

@wilky, what's your read on Gamma Emerald?

[Tommy]

Guerilla, would you consider switching to Gamma in order to get something moving?

[Tommy]

I don’t think so rn
While he’s suspicious, I don’t he’s been pushing scum agenda like I’m used to from scum!Flubber

Gamma Emerald, can you link to an example of Flubbernugget pushing an agenda as scum?

[Tommy]

Guerilla, if he's not scum, you hope that we lose our doctor?

[Tommy]

So Gamma, can you pick whichever one of those games illustrates your point best and tell me what agenda Flubbernugget was pushing in that game?

[Tommy]

As I said, kinda a gut analysis.

Do you have any other reasons for believing Flubbernugget to be town in this game?

Mod, I'll be V/LA until Sunday evening.

[Tommy]

Catch-up to follow, but this is important enough that it gets a post of its own. Can everyone who isn't voting for Gamma Emerald please take a look at this:

While he’s suspicious, I don’t he’s been pushing scum agenda like I’m used to from scum!Flubber

Gamma Emerald, can you link to an example of Flubbernugget pushing an agenda as scum?

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=76649
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=69502
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71640
A few Flubbernugget scumgames
The statement I made is a bit gut-based but I feel like I am right with it

So Gamma, can you pick whichever one of those games illustrates your point best and tell me what agenda Flubbernugget was pushing in that game?

Not really? As I said, kinda a gut analysis. How about you look at them and tell me if you disagree that the games look different?

Now, I respect gut reads. Sometimes you have an impression of someone's play that's hard to put your finger on, but your overall idea is still a decent guide that helps you sort them. Examples of good gut reads might be "I think her posts feel insincere" or "He doesn't seem to be trying to scum-hunt". Pushing an agenda, on the other hand, seems to me a very specific claim. I mean, that's what an agenda is, right? If you get the impression that someone is trying to achieve a certain goal, you ought to be able to point to examples of where.

The reason Gamma Emerald can't point to such examples is that he made up his reason for town-reading Flubbernugget.

[Tommy]

Welcome Creature! You're pretty much confirmed town for me. But not for anyone else as far as I can tell.

nice to see you dodging actually doing any analysis

I will look at those Flubbernugget games and I thank you for pulling them together for me. But since I don't intend to lynch a claimed doctor today, I'm more interested at the moment in what your Flubber read tells me about you.

@flubber assuming you are town would scum partners be on both mislynch wagons? D1 me and Guerilla were both on wagon and d2 we were both on you.

Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I'm not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool; you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

Ohkay this is gross Garciaing

What?

Think we're here:

• Gamma Emerald - Tommy, GuerillaWoo
  Tommy - Alchemist21, Gamma Emerald
  Toranaga - wilky
  wilky - Saudade, Flubbernugget, Toranaga
  Not Voting - EzekelRAGE

[Tommy]

Meh don't like this from tommy, could be scum

Want to give some more details about what you don't like in my post? Or is it another gut thing?

[Tommy]

Welcome Creature! You're pretty much confirmed town for me. But not for anyone else as far as I can tell.

What?

The mod intervened in EzekelRAGE's row with Doughboy, which I don't think she would have done if you were scum. No one else buys into that though.

Who's the doc?

Flubbernugget got run up at the start of this game day and then escaped the noose by claiming doc. He said he protected Alchemist21 last night, which is plausible.

Page 57

thinking we should do wilky if he's not the claimed doc

What is it about that page that makes you dislike wilky? He doesn't even post there. Gamma Emerald throws some shade at him but doesn't say why because he's concentrating on GuerillaWoo.

My scum reads keep claiming power.

VOTE: Saudade

Got to reread with Gamma and Flubbernugget as town.

Also need to go back and make a call on how likely it is that Gamma would have targeted Flubbernugget. If they're scum together, maybe they cooked up this plan as a way to bolster Flubbernugget's claim. Obviously when Gamma got riled up, he executed it earlier than was ideal, but that doesn't make it legit.

The evidence of my claim being true exists.

Oh that would be helpful. Please point it out.

Thinking the +1 is Tommy

You want me in your town bloc? Sounds good. What's the case on wilky? Or Toranaga?

Alright I’m back. What’d I miss?

Gamma Emerald claimed tracker out of nowhere. Says he targeted Flubbernugget. Confirms Flubbernugget targeted you.

So like
Besides me and GW cross voting no votes have changed since the last VC

This is untrue, and possibly a deliberate lie to create the circumstances for another accidental hammer. Since the last vote count, Creature switched to wilky and brought him to L-1.

[Tommy]

That makes sense. Why did you choose to target him?

[Tommy]

Wait a minute wait a minute, what about the first two posts you made in day 2?

[Tommy]

Okay I've caught Gamma Emerald in a lie!

This post came

before

Flubbernugget's doctor claim:

I don’t think so rn
While he’s suspicious, I don’t he’s been pushing scum agenda like I’m used to from scum!Flubber

After I demonstrated that the 'pushing scum agenda' thing was bullshit, Gamma claimed tracker and said that it was his result on Flubbernugget that caused him to bullshit. But he forgot that the bullshit came before the doctor claim. All Gamma was supposed to know at that point was that Flubbernugget targeted Alchemist21. Maybe Flubbernugget's a town doctor, but maybe he's a mafia roleblocker. And in fact his day 2 posts before this are deeply sceptical about Flubbernugget. So this is the lie here:

The read was pretty much sparked by my result.

This would work if Gamma Emerald's 'scum agenda' comment came after Flubber's claim, but it came before. Gamma is lying about this, so he's lying about being a town tracker too. Got him.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Saudade, you were the only one left from my process of elimination earlier. But this is better.

[Tommy]

@GuerillaWoo, I was on the Flubbernugget wagon. Before that the ProHawk one.

[Tommy]

This is follow the cop right now

Not quite. With two scum still alive, the tracker can't clear anyone.

Saudade, what's wrong with my Gamma case?

[Tommy]

So you don't accept that I've shown his claim is a lie?

[Tommy]

Saudade can you read 1604 and tell me what you think. Same to Alchemist21.

[Tommy]

I dont understand break it down to me like im stupid

All right I will, despite the fact that your later posts imply you won't listen.

Gamma Emerald says he's a tracker, and that he targeted Flubbernugget on night 1. His first two posts of day 2 are consistent with this story - they concentrate on Flubbernugget with some suspicion as one might expect:

I had nothing to do with that wagon

Mind explaining yourself on this mr first-on-the-wagon?

I had nothing to do with that wagon

Mind explaining yourself on this mr first-on-the-wagon?

Yeah, I meant hammer. I pretty obviously had a lot to do with the wagon.

I was going to agree with this
But yeah you did 0% of the pushing here.

But then Gamma Emerald changes track for no apparent reason:

I don’t think so rn
While he’s suspicious, I don’t he’s been pushing scum agenda like I’m used to from scum!Flubber

The 'scum agenda' reason was made up, as I've shown elsewhere. Gamma Emerald squirmed on that and said it was based on 'gut'. But you don't need to worry about that, because in a minute I'm going to quote Gamma admitting it was made up.

The next important event in this timeline is Flubbernugget claiming doctor.

Then a bit later, Gamma Emerald claims tracker and supports Flubbernugget's claim.

Now here comes the scum-slip:

Hey Tommy
Recall how you kept pushing me to expand on my Flubber townread? The read was pretty much sparked by my result. That’s why I called it gut: I didn’t want to get backed into a corner where I’d have to claim just to explain a townread generated by my result.

Given the timeline I've just shown you, this must be a lie. The town read wasn't generated by his result. In his first two posts of day 2, he clearly isn't town-reading Flubbernugget. Then in post 1105 above, he gives a made-up reason for drifting away from his focus on Flubbernugget and starts talking about other things. When Flubbernugget claimed doctor,

that's

when Gamma Emerald's read should have changed. But he messed up. And now he's trying to retroactively fit new reasons onto old actions in spite of a sequence of events that contradicts them.

That's my case.

For an 11-p with a 2-man scumteam I wouldn't expect scum to have any PRs

It's been a while since I've played, so you may be right. But what matters is whether Gamma Emerald thinks it's right. And he clearly doesn't because look at 1075 and 1090, quoted above.

funny two people have declared intent to hammer wilky at the same time

You'll need them both, because he's at L-2 right now.

• wilky - Saudade, Flubbernugget, Creature
  Gamma Emerald - Tommy, GuerillaWoo
  GuerillaWoo - Gamma Emerald
  Tommy - Alchemist21
  Toranaga - wilky
  Saudade - Toranaga

[Tommy]

This is still only L-1, just to be clear. I think it would be very odd to finish this off before Wilky or a replacement is allowed to post.

[Tommy]

if either of them are x-shot it's a non issue

If either of them add 'x-shot' to their claim at this stage, it will be an issue that they didn't mention it before.

[Tommy]

@Mod are you planning to prod wilky?

[Tommy]

Alchemist, if Toranaga was being so towny, why would scum try to shade him? Isn't it easier for scum to mislynch players who aren't being the towniest town? There's always the night-kill for towny towns.

[Tommy]

I'd rather get a claim first.

[Tommy]

Please don't hammer before Wilky or a replacement claims.

[Tommy]

Well let's see if the mod announces a deadline extension before you start blackmailing people into hammering an empty slot.

[Tommy]

I agree. A wilky lynch is better than no lynch. Maybe I should have said pressured rather than blackmailed.

[Tommy]

Hmm, you appeared to have more sense than that.

[Tommy]

I believe Gamma now. I did a PoE overnight and came up with Toranaga too. Can't remember how. I remember Alchemist21 was also possible. Some time when I'm not drunk and tired I can try to reconstruct it. Creature, what I found helpful was to look at all the places where wilky and DVa's names were mentioned.

VOTE: Toranaga

That's L-1.

[Tommy]

Intent to hammer.

[Tommy]

Oh wait I'm already voting.

[Tommy]

Sorry to hear about the cat. Hope it's okay.

[Tommy]

Are you ready to give intent, Creature?

[Tommy]

Are you ready to give intent, Creature?

[Tommy]

I think we've had the hammer.

[Tommy]

GuerillaWoo, now that I'm confirmed maybe it would be worth me explaining again why I'm sure Creature is town.

Let's say for the sake of argument that EzekelRAGE was scum. When Ausuka saw him and Doughboy were arguing about a previous game, she would have thought to herself, 'EzekelRAGE is playing a good scum game. Doughboy is being suckered.' It wouldn't have occurred to her to warn them off their fight. But because it was town v town, she figured the fight was just hurting the game and she asked Doughboy to stop. Presumably she asked EzekelRAGE to stop too.

So EzekelRAGE must have been town. And Creature replaced EzekelRAGE, so he must be town too.

I'm certain you're town from your play. If we can set up a town bloc of Tommy, GuerillaWoo and Creature, this is in the bag.

Saudade pushed a weak wagon on an empty slot and it turned out to be scum, so that leaves Alchemist21.

VOTE: Alchemist21

[Tommy]

UNVOTE:

It was an ongoing game? I'm going to check that when I get a chance

[Tommy]

It wasn't an ongoing game. It ended the day before this one started. Here's Doughboy's version of Ausuka's intervention:

I’ve been instructed by the mod not the bring up anything from other games as it relates to rage.

VOTE: Alchemist21

[Tommy]

Okay, well I won't help you lynch Creature. The other two might.

[Tommy]

The day talk would be a bit useless if one of the two scum was a traitor.

Creature, what do you mean when you say the game is easy? Who do you suspect?

[Tommy]

Yes, regardless of his identity I take my hat off to the remaining scum: he's played a blinder of a game.

[Tommy]

Good, let's start with that. If Saudade and GuerillaWoo both settle on you, we'll have a problem, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

[Tommy]

Alchemist21, have you ever hammered an empty slot as town? If so, can you link us to the game?

[Tommy]

Creature, are you ready to put Alchemist at L-1?

[Tommy]

Side note that if Ezekial was scum then the Doughboy kill makes a lot of sense.

If Doughboy soft-claimed cop during twilight then the Doughboy kill makes a lot of sense.

Happy birthday!

[Tommy]

Saudade, please note that Creature is at L-1. I don't want another derp-hammer.

[Tommy]

Alchemist21, which DVa vote are you trying to get town cred for? The one during RVS or the one that lasted for less than an hour before you switched to GuerillaWoo?

[Tommy]

[Tommy]

Saudade could have hammered just then but didn't. I think he gets town points there.

Having said that Saudade, if that's what you want I think I'm ready for you to give intention. I can't see a way to sway you or GuerillaWoo.

[Tommy]

Well do it quick! Most recent one is Sneks and somethings I think.

[Tommy]

There's no rush if you're willing to give Creature the time to research.

[Tommy]

@Saudade, only because you said you were leaning towards a Creature hammer.

[Tommy]

You're absolutely right that it doesn't fit the function of a mod. I'm arguing that she made a mistake. If EzekelRAGE had been scum, it would have been obvious to her that it was a mistake and she wouldn't have made it.

[Tommy]

But she didn't just ban personal attacks. According to Doughboy, she asked him not to 'bring up anything from other games as it relates to rage'. If that's the case, then I think it was over-modding. With the best of intentions of course, and we can go into it after the game. But what remains game-relevant is that if EzekelRAGE had been scum, it would have been obvious to Ausuka that she was over-modding and she wouldn't have done it.

[Tommy]

I cannot give you other reasons. I think I can't change your mind and you can't change mine. I hope you lynch right tomorrow.

[Tommy]

I haven't made a single good read this game. Without this one thing, Creature's slot is scummier than Alchemist21. Or you for that matter. But I can't help how certain I am about this. I think it's our most important piece of evidence. Do you not see it?

[Tommy]

How's the Alchemist research coming along, Creature?

[Tommy]

EzekelRAGE seems very town during his argument with Doughboy. He's so indignant. Also Wilky throws a good amount of shade on him.

[Tommy]

Quote for EzekelRAGE being indignant:

You are just a toxic shitty player. You won’t learn from your mistakes because you don’t take criticism well. When things don’t go your way you just insult, that lets me know you are mentally weak. Do you have anything to say about me other than you saying I’m a bad player( see that’s an opinion) and bitching about idk what at this point?

Quote for Wilky throwing shade:

Talk to me about Ezekel? By looking at the iso's Ezekel seemed to be the one who was trying to keep the 1v1 going. The iso pretty much filled with the 1v1 until the last couple of posts and it also reminds me of a scum game I had before where I dragged Gustavo into a 1v1 and kept it going to bog down the thread, split the town and make people choose sides.

[Tommy]

Nice
I bussed my roleblocker in a game with a doc and tracker

The next lebel play!!!

This is so WIFOM. It's the only reason I put you ahead of Alchemist21, so well worth doing as scum. And wasn't there some chat earlier about you having form for this kind of thing?

[Tommy]

I dont remember large 215
Did i win as scum there

Yes
and you called one of your buddies scum and waved that over everyone in endgame

Hahahabahahaha

[Tommy]

I still think Alchemist21 is the more likely scum at this point though. Okay I'm ready. Good luck, GuerillaWoo.

[Tommy]

Tomorrow you'll have to pick one though!

[Tommy]

Neither of those two possible instances of distancing are particularly valuable to me in my investigation. Alchemist21 is the most likely scum by process of elimination. He's played almost impeccably. One weakness is that the case he's offered on Creature today isn't up to much. But it's done the job.

[Tommy]

I disagree that Wilky was obvscum. Saudade's case on him was that he was absent. If Alchemist21 had waited for Wilky to be replaced, the wagon would have fallen apart.

[Tommy]

Some players just really become obvious when inactive

No no, I don't mean he was actively lurking. He literally wasn't playing at all. He offered real life reasons for that, before disappearing altogether.

[Tommy]

Maybe you can make an argument that says DVa left because she gave up I guess.

[Tommy]

What's the difference?

[Tommy]

Well anyway, wilky had turned everyone round on that, and if he'd had the time and resources to keep posting he wouldn't have been the lynch that day. If Saudade is scum, he bussed wilky not because he had to but because he reckoned it was an opportunity to reach and win the endgame.

[Tommy]

Also wouldn't be surprised if the roleblock was used N1

Really? On who? They killed Doughboy, so no point blocking him.

I like your (1) and (2). But I still think Alchemist coming in at the end with that weird hammer is the more likely bus. You never hammer an empty slot and Alchemist should know that. But I think he also knew what the flip would be, so he figured he'd buy some town cred.

Also I think someone was derping about the existemce of a third scum

Who was it again?

I think it was GuerillaWoo first, then Saudade many times. I found it unconvincing. Shit, I don't know, maybe it's Saudade after all.

[Tommy]

It was Doughboy first.

[Tommy]

Had I intended to bus I would have made my decision on Wilky sooner, and regardless I probably would have pushed the fact that he was absent to try to save him from the lynch and push elsewhere.

Unless that was what you

wanted

me to think. This game has been chock-full of people appealing to useless WIFOM arguments.

[Tommy]

Note that if Alchemist21 is scum and plans to cross-vote with Saudade tomorrow, his most recent post is the right move.

[Tommy]

5 days and 15 hours from now.

[Tommy]

It sort of seems like you think Creature is scum now but you're planning to think Saudade is scum tomorrow.

[Tommy]

Confirmation bias has blinded you to the fact that Creature is trying to solve the game.

[Tommy]

If I was scum Creature, I'd be pushing a counter-wagon pretty hard by now.

[Tommy]

Good luck with LYLO!

[Tommy]

Oh man this night kill fucks with my head.

[Tommy]

If it's Guerilla, it makes sense to kill me. Saudade saw Guerilla as a 'gucci town read'.

If it's Alchemist21, he's kind of screwed whatever he does: Saudade and Guerilla would have ganged up on him. Maybe he hopes he can confuse me with WIFOM - better than letting the thing play out by the book.

Not deciding tonight.

[Tommy]

Going to try rereading GuerillaWoo's game assuming that he's scum. I'll see how far I get.

[Tommy]

Got as far as his interactions with Saudade on day 1. There's no way those are coming from scum. He talks consistently about Saudade's behaviour but he's inconsistent about whether he has Saudade as a town read or a scum read. And when it changes, he doesn't even acknowledge that it's changed, much less justify it. He doesn't care about seeming consistent in his reasoning. He's trying to read Saudade in a natural way. The read changes with his mood, and he just writes what he feels in the moment.

I suppose this hands victory to GuerillaWoo whether I'm right or wrong:

VOTE: Alchemist21

Happy birthday mate.

And either way, Alchemist21, you've played an excellent game.

Thanks for modding, Ausuka. This was a tough game to run, but I enjoyed it throughout.

[Tommy]

Oh Guerilla, what a game! Congratulations, sir! And to wilky too.

Sorry team. Guerilla had me.

[Tommy]

Do what feels natural then, I'm just gonna feign confusion for a few pages lol

This. I ate it up.

[Tommy]

Great work drawing the night kill, Doughboy.

[Tommy]

Lol sorry guys I did my best!

[Tommy]

I think anyone would've lynched Alch over Guerrilla here

Not me

Shame you made that unforced claim then...