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Post Post #1554 (isolation #0) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:45 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

Howdy.

I've only read the first couple pages and since the hammer so far. Dunstral's hammer feels scummy to me but part of that is because -- to me -- it feels sudden. However, if it feels better after reading the two-week build-up to it, I'll revise that read. (this is assuming we haven't already won, which I think is pretty likely.)
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Post Post #1555 (isolation #1) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:46 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1554, Cobblerfone wrote:Howdy.

I've only read the first couple pages and since the hammer so far. Dunstral's hammer feels scummy to me but part of that is because -- to me -- it feels sudden. However, if it feels better after reading the two-week build-up to it, I'll revise that read. (this is assuming we haven't already won, which I think is pretty likely.)
Correction: opportunistic rather than sudden.
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Post Post #1576 (isolation #2) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 3:56 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1562, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1555, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1554, Cobblerfone wrote:Howdy.

I've only read the first couple pages and since the hammer so far. Dunstral's hammer feels scummy to me but part of that is because -- to me -- it feels sudden. However, if it feels better after reading the two-week build-up to it, I'll revise that read. (this is assuming we haven't already won, which I think is pretty likely.)
Correction: opportunistic rather than sudden.
Do you think that gamma wagon would have disassembled if I hadn't hammered?
IDK. I just got done going through the votecounts and just looking there it seems to come out of nowhere. I'm not quite sure I'm getting why you're asking this question though? Is it a matter of momentum or a ponderance of the capriciousness of scum?

(I'm not trying to be pretentious, these words are literally just the ones coming to my head. I'm not a very organized speaker, and I'm kind of in "speaking mode" instead of "writing mode" right now because I'm trying to be as quick as possible.)
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Post Post #1581 (isolation #3) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:00 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1560, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1554, Cobblerfone wrote:it feels sudden.
There are no power roles so there was no reason to bother with intent and the like, he was either scum or vt
That's not what I mean.
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Post Post #1584 (isolation #4) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:03 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1568, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1561, Toranaga wrote:I think it's quite productive actually. is this conversation making you uncomfortable, penguin?
Totally uncomfortable...help me.

I find twilight discussion benefits scum more than town usually.

I don't play larges much so that may differ. However, I refer back to Dunn v. Maria...how is this productive?
I basically agree. The more information we give scum, the more information they have to pick how to divide themselves and who to kill. I admittedly selfishly just wanted to participate in some way before Day 2. Because, well, I could die Night 1.
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Post Post #1585 (isolation #5) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:04 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1582, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1576, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1562, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1555, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1554, Cobblerfone wrote:Howdy.

I've only read the first couple pages and since the hammer so far. Dunstral's hammer feels scummy to me but part of that is because -- to me -- it feels sudden. However, if it feels better after reading the two-week build-up to it, I'll revise that read. (this is assuming we haven't already won, which I think is pretty likely.)
Correction: opportunistic rather than sudden.
Do you think that gamma wagon would have disassembled if I hadn't hammered?
IDK. I just got done going through the votecounts and just looking there it seems to come out of nowhere. I'm not quite sure I'm getting why you're asking this question though? Is it a matter of momentum or a ponderance of the capriciousness of scum?

(I'm not trying to be pretentious, these words are literally just the ones coming to my head. I'm not a very organized speaker, and I'm kind of in "speaking mode" instead of "writing mode" right now because I'm trying to be as quick as possible.)
I'm asking the question because you're saying my vote was opportunistic, but I wonder how it's opportunistic because there wasn't really a reason for me to make myself look bad by hammering if I'm scum here - I'm saying I think Gamma would have been lynched without my vote anyway
WIFOM. Also, if Gamma was going to be lynched anyway, and Gamma wasn't mafia, why not let the mafia hammer?
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Post Post #1593 (isolation #6) » Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:17 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1586, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1585, Cobblerfone wrote:WIFOM.
No, you can't reply "wifom" to that - it's just straight up not opportunistic
In post 1587, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1585, Cobblerfone wrote:Also, if Gamma was going to be lynched anyway, and Gamma wasn't mafia, why not let the mafia hammer?
Um, I didn't think Gamma was town
In post 1588, Dunnstral wrote:Like that's kind of weird, did you catch up on the part where mafia lose if they're hammered day 1?

Your argument doesn't really make sense for what you think I would do as town - if he were mafia no other mafia would be voting him
The WIFOM was in response to "there wasn't really a reason for me to make myself look bad by hammering if I'm scum here". I didn't catch that " - I'm saying I think Gamma would have been lynched without my vote anyway" was connected. My bad.
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Post Post #1600 (isolation #7) » Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:38 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

Oh. This is somewhat good for me since penguin was a more null read for me. (I actually have him as scum in my read list.)

I haven't read all of the game but a good chunk of it. It's bit hard to read pacing-wise.

VOTE: Alchemist

For now since he feels obv-scum to me.

Also, wow, Dunnstral's first vote the entire day one was the hammer! And his iso before that looks really coasty. However, I remember getting the impression he was somewhat townie at some point during twilight. So I'm going to hold off on him until I take time to examine it further.
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #8) » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:54 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1605, Dunnstral wrote:Penguinpower dying doesn't mean Toranaga is suspicious


Yeah Penguin scumread Tora but that was pretty much a throwaway read from them (I'd expect Penguin to come in today and reevaluate) PLUS would Tora really be as blatant to nk them?
I agree with this. Mostly because from what I remember it seemed most players had a town read on penguin or no stated read. I suspect that’s why he was killed. Unless I’m just flat-out wrong. Feel free to correct me.
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Post Post #1625 (isolation #9) » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:18 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1623, Toranaga wrote:I didn't replace alisae btw

I agree alisae was town. I wanted to replace alisae even, btu they gave me someone else I forgot now
You replaced chamber. (I know because I'm keeping track in my preliminary reads list that I came up with to sanity-check my reads in this large game.)

@Maria: I don't want to have to reread the massive wall of text that is twilight. Can you explain your vote on Dunn? Dunn summed up his reason for voting you, which I don't find entirely compelling, but can you sum up yours?
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Post Post #1626 (isolation #10) » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:36 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

@
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Post Post #1627 (isolation #11) » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:39 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1611, Titus wrote:VOTE: Chickadee

For the VCAs.
Can you explain? I tried looking through her iso and couldn't quite find what you're talking about. Though I admit from that I did get the idea that she could possibly be scum that doesn't quite know where to push and so basically settles for anything.
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #12) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:13 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1629, Titus wrote:
In post 1627, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1611, Titus wrote:VOTE: Chickadee

For the VCAs.
Can you explain? I tried looking through her iso and couldn't quite find what you're talking about. Though I admit from that I did get the idea that she could possibly be scum that doesn't quite know where to push and so basically settles for anything.
I am voting Chickadee because I want to sort her to resolve the d1 wagons.
Ah. At first I thought you were voting her because she did VCA in a scummy way.
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #13) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:16 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1628, Chickadee wrote:
In post 1627, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1611, Titus wrote:VOTE: Chickadee

For the VCAs.
Can you explain? I tried looking through her iso and couldn't quite find what you're talking about. Though I admit from that I did get the idea that she could possibly be scum that doesn't quite know where to push and so basically settles for anything.

Scum would know exactly where to push though...
Not necessarily in a natural and convincing way.

Agree with Irrelephant11 about Majiffy’s opening. Making me feel better about Irrelephant11 town - since initial cursory VCA made me lean scum.
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #14) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:53 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1634, Chickadee wrote:I'm curious what made you lean scum. I've had irrelephant11 as town for a while now.
It wasn’t too solid. Just initial gut. I’m not best at VCA but I figured it a decent place to start in a game this long. That and my suspicions of alch somewhat confused that initial gut. But since it was just gut based off a skill I’m not good at, I decided to let my read from actually reading the game decide my vote.
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #15) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:02 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1636, Irrelephant11 wrote:@cobbler what else did your vca teach you?
Nothing I can remember. I got more from actually reading the game.
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Post Post #1656 (isolation #16) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:01 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

UNVOTE: alch

Reason:
Chikadee’s voting post

I’m going to reread more in-depth
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Post Post #1661 (isolation #17) » Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:41 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1373, Chickadee wrote:Gamma
Alchemist
(I think one of them is scum, but maybe not both? Would lynch either honestly)
Dunn I suppose
Chamber, but no one else seems to be there
@chikadee: what made you say dunn here?
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Post Post #1678 (isolation #18) » Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:46 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1671, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1670, Chickadee wrote:
In post 1661, Cobblerfone wrote:
In post 1373, Chickadee wrote:Gamma
Alchemist
(I think one of them is scum, but maybe not both? Would lynch either honestly)
Dunn I suppose
Chamber, but no one else seems to be there
@chikadee: what made you say dunn here?
I didn't feel like Dunn was really game solving to the extent I usually see from him.
I mean, I've been pushing my read, I don't know what you're talking about
Not at that point in time; you hadn’t voted at all.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #19) » Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:02 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1679, Alchemist21 wrote:Wait does Titus really want to potentially put us into lylo just for info?
To be fair, if scum is lynched in lylo it's no longer lylo (lovers and all that).
In post 1684, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1682, Not_Mafia wrote:VOTE: Dunn
such a scum vote
Yeah, it's not sitting too well with me either. It's definitely contributing to the "it's too easy" vibe your wagon has. If you're scum and there's a bussing happening, my money's on not_mafia. Well, if I gambled.
In post 1695, Irrelephant11 wrote:...

@mariaR, I think the wagon on Dunn is happening too easily so far
... hmmm but I am also townreading most of the wagon
I'll think about it, but I don't super get your case on him other than "I can always read him right". He's at L-2 and I'm not ready to get to L-1 with so many players barely touching the thread so far this game day so consider me a "maybe later"

....
Basically me.

@Irrelephant: I'm willing to sheep your decision regarding dunn if you come to a proper decision before I do.
In post 1701, Irrelephant11 wrote:Okay, but basically no one on the wagon except maria has provided reasoning so it looks too easy fmpov
In post 1703, Lavos wrote:He quickhammered Gamma when d1 was super important and had weird progression into doing it. He suspected Gamma super early d1, forgot about it and then hammered with the justification of "oh we don't need Cobbler's thoughts if gamma is scum" - yeah well what if he's town? His defense of Toranaga was suspicious regardless of Tor's alignment - he kinda just jumped into defending him and won't respond about why he was so certain that PP would have re-evaluated is read. Additionally he accused Maria of "just a naked vote that won't gain any traction so she can coast through the day on a baseless read while hoping townies start to wagon me." which a) doesn't really make any sense because I think if you want to coast through the day on a naked vote that won't get any traction, you don't exactly want people to focus on your target, and b) he is basically doing literally the exact same thing as he's accusing Maria of doing wrt/ voteparking Maria and not trying to push any wagon that will gain traction.
I like this post.



I'm getting less busy this week, so I'll be able to devote more attention, but probably not too much until the weekend.
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Post Post #1738 (isolation #20) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 6:54 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

I am not reading dunnstral’s latest posts as a scum reaction. He’s way too consigned to his fate for someone that would end up bringing one or two others down with him.
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Post Post #1741 (isolation #21) » Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:46 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

VOTE: chikadee

I believe this is the best place for my vote at the moment.
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Post Post #1757 (isolation #22) » Sun Oct 07, 2018 5:41 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

It seems to all be a stalemate. Part of that is probably the weekend.
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Post Post #1785 (isolation #23) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:58 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

VOTE: not_mafia

That’s what I was waiting for.
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Post Post #1832 (isolation #24) » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:00 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1789, Chara wrote:
In post 1785, Cobblerfone wrote:VOTE: not_mafia

That’s what I was waiting for.
weren't you scumreading Chickadee?
She pinged bad enough to get me off dunnstral, and then dunnstral's seemingly genuine resignation added more town points on for him. I figured I'd vote to even out the wagons more and to see if scum would start hopping or if things would continue to stall. Unfortunately, the weekend came which meant less activity all-around.
In post 1793, Chickadee wrote:I'm not sold on Dunn, but if that's where the group wants to go, I would. Dunn isn't really putting up a defense. I don't see the survivalist instinct I usually see from scum. I also think Dunn and Maria being so tunneled on each other is possibly TvT. I said earlier I don't have a town read on Dunn, but I'm starting to also not have a scum read.

I'm still really interested n the fact we've tried to have an Alch wagon a few times, and it never gets off the ground.
I'm not too opposed to alch or titus. I don't really know. Too many scum in this game.
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Post Post #1837 (isolation #25) » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:53 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1834, Dunnstral wrote:I don't really want to antagonize MariaR since it's clear she doesn't enjoy being scum here, can we just lynch here?

All this talk about wagon resistance yet people won't even acknowledge MariaR
You wanna convince me there are what, 12?, scum in this game? I might actually vote you for that tunnelin-logic. Actually to help me continue to sort you, find “the other four” instead of nagging. I would expect a townie to become more proactive when the pressure on them started dying down.

@everyone: what’s up with not_mafia’s naked votes? That’s, what — 3 in row? Is that normal? I guess when I’m off my phone I could research it.
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Post Post #1926 (isolation #26) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:59 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

VOTE: dunnstral

Don’t even care that it doesn’t matter
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Post Post #1928 (isolation #27) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:04 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1922, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1920, MariaR wrote:I didn't know Titus was lynched.
Why did you say:
MariaR wrote:
In post 1872, Dunnstral wrote:MariaR seems awfully content to sit back and let Titus get lynched considering she apparently knows I'm scum
More so I'm disengaged. Titus lynch is prob town. *shrug*
This is useless tunneling in its purest form
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Post Post #1937 (isolation #28) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:26 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

Lylo but with five mafia it’s also pretty delayed, so they may be more cautious than normally. And hey, if we hit mafia we’ll no longer be in lylo. But it will take all of us voting to get there. But maybe there’s a chance of bussing? Probably not though.
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Post Post #1939 (isolation #29) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 4:34 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1938, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Mariar
Elaborate
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Post Post #1943 (isolation #30) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:53 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1941, Dunnstral wrote:She didn't stop being scum

I explained why yesterday, you guys wagoned someone who was replacing out
Three possibilities:

1. Town not paying attention
2. Scum not paying attention
3. Scum WIFOM

I wish the reason for the vote had been spite as I feel that would have been less likely to be either felt or manufactured by scum.
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Post Post #1944 (isolation #31) » Wed Oct 17, 2018 6:15 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

8 players voting for Gamma Emerald (Majiffy,
Titus
,
Chickadee
,
Toranaga
,
Irrelephant11
,
PenguinPower,
Invisibility
, Dunnstral)
2 players voting for Chickadee (Cobblerfone, Not_Mafia)
2 players voting for Majiffy (
MariaR, Gamma Emerald
)
1 player voting for Alchemist21 (Lavos)
1 player voting for Cobblerfone (Alchemist21)

1 player not voting (Chara)

--------------------------------

7 players voting for Titus (
Irrelephant11
, Chara,
Chickadee
,
Invisibility
, Not_Mafia, Alchemist21,
Toranaga
)
2 players voting for Not_Mafia (Majiffy, Cobblerfone)
2 players voting for Dunnstral (
MariaR
, Lavos)
1 player voting for Chickadee (
Titus
)
1 player voting for MariaR (Dunnstral)

0 players not voting

-------------------------------

All I got right now. I plan to sample other votecounts and compare them later, so I'll be saving this as a draft too.
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Post Post #1963 (isolation #32) » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:58 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

@Chikadee: do you think dunnstral is town?
@Dunnstral: do you think chikadee is town?
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Post Post #1977 (isolation #33) » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:56 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1967, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 1944, Cobblerfone wrote:8 players voting for Gamma Emerald (Majiffy,
Titus
,
Chickadee
,
Toranaga
,
Irrelephant11
,
PenguinPower,
Invisibility
, Dunnstral)
2 players voting for Chickadee (Cobblerfone, Not_Mafia)
2 players voting for Majiffy (
MariaR, Gamma Emerald
)
1 player voting for Alchemist21 (Lavos)
1 player voting for Cobblerfone (Alchemist21)

1 player not voting (Chara)

--------------------------------

7 players voting for Titus (
Irrelephant11
, Chara,
Chickadee
,
Invisibility
, Not_Mafia, Alchemist21,
Toranaga
)
2 players voting for Not_Mafia (Majiffy, Cobblerfone)
2 players voting for Dunnstral (
MariaR
, Lavos)
1 player voting for Chickadee (
Titus
)
1 player voting for MariaR (Dunnstral)

0 players not voting

-------------------------------

All I got right now. I plan to sample other votecounts and compare them later, so I'll be saving this as a draft too.
For this and other reasons Toranaga and Chickadee are my two biggest scumreads
-toranaga has zero WIM and has basically done nothing other than argue with MariaR and lolvote both mislynch wagons. Also his suggestion this game day to vote dunnstral and "blame mariar" is basically openwolfing
-chickadee has felt scummy all game and has somehow rode out multiple wagons on her without ever getting to L-2

I had felt like invisibility was towny D1 but he's closer to null after voting town "without wanting to" twice
what do you do with nulls in 6v5 lylo...
I could actually see invis being scum with one or more of the people he's been pushing (dunnstral/alchemist) given he's "vocal" about them but never actually makes much of a case for others to follow. Otoh, if he's scum he's probably not the scum we'll be lynching today.
invis/nm/dunnstral don't feel sortable this game day, honestly. Like not that it's 100% impossible to sort any of them ever, I just feel like they're all so hard to read in general and this isn't the gamestate to risk it on one of them.


If I have to have strong townreads (iffy at this point, but necessary), it's probably just chara/cobbler/lavos, with the caveat that there's probably one scum even in there at this point. majiffy might be town like I thought d1. I forget why I lost that read d2

We have ~a week to do re-reading before we need to really consolidate somewhere, so that's how I intend to spend my time
I'll be honest, I think a better place to look is
off
the wagons. I bolded and italicized those that were on both and are still alive, but that's just because it's simpler. Granted, I don't think EVERYONE on there is town. But IMO there are probably more scum off the wagons than on. That's where I'm going to look right now.
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Post Post #1978 (isolation #34) » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:04 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Actually looking at the names on the posts that seems somewhat unlikely.
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Post Post #1979 (isolation #35) » Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:11 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Both: Chickadee, Toranaga, Irrelephant11, Invisibility

One: Majiffy, Dunnstral, Chara, Not_Mafia, Alchemist21

Neither: Cobblerfone, Lavos

Physically impossible actually.

Since I'm townreading Lavos pretty strongly today, that means all mafia were on at least one wagon. Funnily enough, all the players on the "One" line previously looked more suspicious to me than most of the players on the "both" line (maybe swap dunnstral for tora/maybe invis -- not sure.) I'll look over the likelihood of team configurations over the weekend.
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Post Post #1989 (isolation #36) » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:22 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1980, Lavos wrote:NM's ISO seems sorta awful but not awful to the point where it's impossible to be town that doesn't care? There's not a lot to remark on just because there's not a lot there. He has a weird vigor for the Titus lynch when it was just a compromise that he hopped on. He, uh, naked voted a few people, two of whom are possible scum? That's it. He replaced Maruchan, who had a weird mechanical focus and made, unless I'm missing something, exactly 0 scumhunting posts - even though she had V/LA issues that's still very :/ since he made game-related posts related to NAI mechanics. I would actually consider voting this today.

Majiffy? Uh, probably isn't scum with NM. Not particularly a fan of his rhetoric that the Dunn wagon was rushed. He has mechanical posts too but there's clearly scumhunting mixed in there too which is :up . = - partner equity? Don't want to be the person who throws at the end by pretending like mafia never bus but in this lovers game not sure why you throw that shade there exactly. Not certain but like something to consider. I guess I don't like him talking about how all wagons are supposed to be dumb wagons from d1 but his vote on me and then NM was purely due to his maru scumread on d1. otoh I guess I sort of feel he has some will to gamesolve? altogether ambivalent on this one.
In post 1841, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1839, Irrelephant11 wrote: Seriously if anyone thinks Titus is town though please do share
Titus is a she just FYI

Also RC was dumbtown and last I checked alignments don't change with the replacements so Titus is town too
This is bad in the context that he was willing to intent on Titus later and seemingly forgot about this.

Chickadee:
In post 870, Chickadee wrote:VOTE: Chamber
In post 1653, Chickadee wrote:VOTE: Alchemist

I want that sweet sweet sketchy 3rd vote spot.
By no means definitive but perhaps something to consider??
In post 1885, Chickadee wrote:
In post 1878, Lavos wrote:I don't understand how Titus is meant to flip scum? This is a lovers game. Does it look like mafia are really concerned about Titus being lynched, like at all?

VOTE: Dunnstral if we can get this back let's do it.
tbf, it kind of feels like you're concerned about a titus lynch.
I don't like this but I can't tell if it's because I'm biased against it or it's actually scummy.

She seems pretty anti-Alchemist the entire time actually.

Kinda dislike how she kinda suddenly decides that Titus is scum for like no reason at one point? and henceforth pushes for it like really hard.

sorry but i'm really tired i'll finish this later. tbh saying that scum are all necessarily on x amount of lynches sounds like a bad idea, that can vary or it can be the same and i don't see the reasoning behind saying mafia would maneuver themselves to specifically be on one out of two lynch wagons?
Something about this is pinging my scumdar but good find on Majiffy nevertheless.

@Majiffy: what's up with Titus?
In post 1983, Irrelephant11 wrote:@cobbler is there a reason you think scum are more likely to be off wagons than on?
I don't know what current meta is but generally to avoid drawing suspicion. Especially when town usually does a good job of getting mislynch wagons going anyway.
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Post Post #2000 (isolation #37) » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:19 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 1991, Chara wrote:
In post 1986, Dunnstral wrote:Um yeah ok, I think it's likely scum come into today with the intention of trying to get my lynch going

Toranaga supposedly knew MariaR was town yesterday, then upon her flip says to look at me again, though I was town to him yesterday - what?
Invisibility comes into today pushing me as well

Cobbler I can't tell, him asking me for my read of Chikadee feels like a leading question, I think she's more likely town than not btw,
i'll actually ISO this later but Tora if you could answer this now?

i just finished a newbie with Cobbler and though i haven't seen them as scum, i can now say that the beat of his play looks as town as it was in that game. granted i was scum so bias?
Admittedly that's making it harder for me to read you, but your play this game does feel different. Granted, you're not ICing this game and it's a large so it's already gonna be different. Right now, I think I'll put you on the townie-list.
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Post Post #2003 (isolation #38) » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:43 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Votecount 1.10
5 players voting for Alchemist21 (
RadiantCowbells
, Irrelephant11, Invisibility,
Gamma Emerald
, vonflare/lavos)
2 players voting for Majiffy (
MariaR
, Alchemist21)
1 player voting for Maruchan/not_mafia (chamber/toranaga)
1 player voting for Gamma Emerald (Pure Sadness/Cobblerfone)
1 player voting for horrordude0215 (
PenguinPower
)
1 player voting for RadiantCowbells (Maruchan/not_mafia)

5 players not voting (Majiffy, horrordude0215/Chara, Dunnstral, Chickadee)

with 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.

-----

VC 1.21

4 players voting for Chickadee (chamber/toranaga,
PenguinPower,
Irrelephant11, Alisae/cobblerfone, Not_Mafia)
3 players voting for Gamma Emerald (Majiffy,
Titus
, Chickadee)
2 players voting for Majiffy (
MariaR, Gamma Emerald
)
2 players voting for Alchemist21 (Invisibility, Lavos)
1 player voting for Alisae (Alchemist21)

2 players not voting (Dunnstral, Chara)

with 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.

the current day will end in (expired on 2018-10-04 14:30:00)

-----

Final Day 1 VC

8 players voting for Gamma Emerald (Majiffy,
Titus
, Chickadee, Toranaga, Irrelephant11,
PenguinPower,
Invisibility, Dunnstral)
2 players voting for Chickadee (Cobblerfone, Not_Mafia)
2 players voting for Majiffy (
MariaR, Gamma Emerald
)
1 player voting for Alchemist21 (Lavos)
1 player voting for Cobblerfone (Alchemist21)

1 player not voting (Chara)

with 15 players alive, it takes 8 votes to lynch.

-------
VC 2.4

5 players voting for Dunnstral
(MariaR,
Invisibility, Chara, Lavos, Not_Mafia)
3 players voting for Chickadee (
Titus
, Alchemist21, Irrelephant11)
2 players voting for Alchemist21 (Chickadee, Toranaga)
1 player voting for MariaR (Dunnstral)

2 players not voting (Majiffy, Cobblerfone)

with 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

-----

Final Day 2 VC

7 players voting for Titus (Irrelephant11, Chara, Chickadee, Invisibility, Not_Mafia, Alchemist21, Toranaga)
2 players voting for Not_Mafia (Majiffy, Cobblerfone)
2 players voting for Dunnstral (
MariaR
, Lavos)
1 player voting for Chickadee (
Titus
)
1 player voting for MariaR (Dunnstral)

0 players not voting

with 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

-----

I think the safest lynch is probably not_mafia. With the exception of gamma emerald's, he's been a late-comer to every major wagon since he replaced in. If he's mafia, I'm pretty sure that means Chikadee and Dunnstral are town as well.

I want to know why the alchemist wagon died down. Is it because "the first wagon is never scum"? But usually "town on town"?
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Post Post #2004 (isolation #39) » Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:49 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2001, Chara wrote:different how? obviously yes different because this isn't a newbie, but still.

also actually agree with in a vacuum because i don't know how to read NM right now. problem being i don't have a good scumread that i'm not second-guess anyway.
Toranaga, are you going to be around at all?

think i'm going to call it at Lavos/Cobbler/elephant for actually good townreads. still looking for feedback if anybody has it but also they're just. probably town.
Your questions don't sound as fake. But then again that may have been me projecting the "trying to be a good IC/example by coming up with questions and trying extra hard persona" onto you. Though it also isn't day one today.
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Post Post #2049 (isolation #40) » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:52 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

@chara: like your reads.

I do think dunnstral is town.

Not sure about invis. I think scum have day chat so they could in-theory scheduled a time to all come online, but they may not have realized it just because this game is so slow and dragging. I would suggest dunnstral unvote
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Post Post #2050 (isolation #41) » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:53 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

@chara: like your reads.

I do think dunnstral is town.

Not sure about invis. I think scum have day chat so they could in-theory scheduled a time to all come online, but they may not have realized it just because this game is so slow and dragging. I would suggest dunnstral unvote
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Post Post #2073 (isolation #42) » Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:31 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

I think dunnstral’s reaction is townie. I’m not sure a scum!dunnstral would think to fake his logic regarding ausuka and chikadee.

I’m more likely to vote invis but would prefer majiffy I think.
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Post Post #2074 (isolation #43) » Fri Oct 26, 2018 3:32 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

@chara, irrelephant: do you have the sneaking suspicion that ausuka is fake town that I do?
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Post Post #2116 (isolation #44) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:39 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2115, Purrcocet wrote:Gamma was the most obv town player
You already said this and it’s been two ingame days since. What is the point of saying this again?

Irrelephant asked me a question and now I forgot it. I’ll go find it (wish multiquote worked across pages on phones)
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Post Post #2117 (isolation #45) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:49 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

Nevermind he just encouraged me to post more. It’s been a busy week.

VOTE: purrcocet

Just reads too much of trying to get town-cred by calling confirmed-town obv-town

@irrelephant: if you’re voting invis only because “scum could have quicklynched” keep in mind the same applies to dunn. Now of the two, I’d vote invis, but i’d rather lose by being wrong than lose by going with the flow
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Post Post #2118 (isolation #46) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:04 am

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2076, Chara wrote:kind of in agreement with those. Majiffy is a big question mark for me to the point i really don't know if i want to lynch there?

i don't know about Ausuka, i know it's possible i'm wrong but i've really been feeling her play today. though i don't agree with the Dunn vote. an Ausuka lynch isn't something i'd pursue until after a scum Invis flip.
In post 2077, Chara wrote:like just out of the two of them i'd want to vote invis. there's a lot from Dunnstral that i think could be town Dunnstral after all (if i think about how i've seen scumstral in the past), but Maria's read there bothers me. it was her only really confident read before she was nightkilled.
on the other hand i'm townreading invis more on feelings than by play, and i'm reluctant to just ignore that.
I know what you mean about invis -- just that it's dunnstral for me. Seriously, by play, he's really scummy. But he just seems like egocentric-town to me. If you've played with him before, is he this obnoxious as town?
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Post Post #2120 (isolation #47) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 2:53 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2119, Purrcocet wrote:
Cobblerfone wrote:
VOTE: purrcocet

Just reads too much of trying to get town-cred by calling confirmed-town obv-town
This is almost a reason? But its not scum AI

I just gave my impression of the game


And Invisibility has 3 scum on his wagon that's why he hasn't been quicklynched.
Opposed to Dunn who has all town on his wagon (Ausuka is town)

If he were town he'd have been quicklynched way before now.
Why is irrelephant scum? If it’s “because invisl hasn’t been quicklynched” i’m not convinced
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Post Post #2122 (isolation #48) » Sun Oct 28, 2018 4:23 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2121, Purrcocet wrote:he makes good pushes
on town
Well tell you what. Just in case you're town and you're right, I'll unvote you while I'm asleep.

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #2161 (isolation #49) » Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:16 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

In post 2159, Majiffy wrote:VOTE: Dunn
And my reads are lining up, though I do wonder if you’re scum why you waited so long
In post 2160, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: Majiffy

I spoonfed you guys the invis scum lynch, it's not my fault if we lose because Majiffy was dumb town
See this is the kind of thing that makes me want dunnstral out of the game, but it’s lylo and I’m towreading him. Maybe if we survive the day we can lynch him tomorrow (when it’s no longer lylo).

I’m quite exhausted from switching back and forth from working on a C language programming project and a (self-selected) mafia Android app project, however, both will be done tomorrow, so I should be able to be more attentive here on Wednesday. I’ll still read and probably post once tomorrow.

Right now here are my reads: chikadee and dunnstral are town. Chara and irrelephant are probably town. I am wondering about team configurations and if I finish my projects early tomorrow I’ll try to see who could be scum with whom even if my reads are wrong
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Post Post #2225 (isolation #50) » Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:24 pm

Post by Cobblerfone »

I think I'll stick to minis. When I stop being horribly busy.
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