Mini Normal 2040: Day 4

[DVa]

What are the odds that mafia settle it for us and kill him instead?

Has Not_Mafia ever been nightkilled?

[Not_Mafia]

I get vigged all the time

[Elsa Jay]

If we hang a townie today we go into MyLo with NotMaf. Not syper reassuring, I admit. Gotta reread but I think sash asked me a question while I was at work,

[Elsa Jay]

If I divide it further...

{Ofrhz, Sashaddin}
{Carmen, Clemency, NotMafia}

Those 2 groups probably have one scum each.

Why would it be either orfhz or me? Because she is voting me at the moment? Maybe voting 2nd on a need-5 wagon could distance us efficiently as scums?
I notice your second set contains all the voters (except DVa whom you trust), is there another reason I'm not seeing besides what I said?

I don't want to come out bullish or anything, it's just that I've had these questions in mind since I read your post and now I feel like asking.

You and Ofrhz fall under what I call "follower scummers". You aren't the ones who come up with the plans, just follow them. One of you 2 seem likely to be the lackey scum for Carmen, NotMaf, or Clementine. All three of those have their own agenda, so I know 1 of them is the Scum leader.

[DVa]

why are you so sure on a50 town btw? wouldn't a50 have been more engaged and analytical with the whole player list?

btw there's a recently completed game I can ask A50 about now

Like, I'm confident that slot is Mafia, but I have a policy of not lynching N_M ever, so you're going to have to do it without me.

So I guess the circumstances here were pretty different, N_M had replaced ceejay who I guess you scumread, but here's what I don't get--why did you enter this game *hard defending N_M* as town when in another game you will just 'let town do its thing but not take part'? Like this has really bothering me, I couldn't ask you about this game tho since it was ongoing until recently, but I had glanced at it since it had both you and N_M. But I also didn't read the game closely and don't know why ceejay was being scumread offhand.

Why should I believe that you didn't provoke the 1v1 with me as a way to post a bunch without really committing to reads on other players, if in other circumstances you would simply let town push N_M if he was being widely scumread? Like it felt like you started from the position that N_M was town here and then looked for a tell to rationalize that choice, which doesn't really seem to be the way you treat him as a player in every game despite your explicit pro-N_M bias that you have stated in multiple games

[Almost50]

@DVa: CJV was scum with me recently and I had his scum meta fresh in my memory, so it wasn't too hard to peg him there, especially since he replaced MWNN who also played to his scum meta (i.e. didn't play at all).

As for N_M, he did towntell here, and in more than one way, but I guess it wouldn't convince you anyway.

I have very silly ways to read slots. here's an example (from that very game you quote that post from): I was pushing Skygazer for having probably signaled Traitor. She wanted to respond, but said she changed her mind and was going to "watch avatar"" instead. She then promptly changed her avatar to include the phrase "I'm town". Not much to anyone, but I hard TR'd her off that move because it was so silly a move to prove anything, and I felt scum wouldn't put the effort to think and execute such an encrypted move to say "I'm town". She was TOWN.

N_M posted this as I entered the game:

Hey Almost, help me pls, they're picking on me

Again, not much to most anyone else, but it felt like and honest and genuine cry for help, and I it just hit me as more likely to come from town!him. That and "something else" that I would still rather not explicitly state if I ever want to have a way of reading him in the future.

As to why you should believe one thing or another, I have no comment. You do you, and I'll do me.

[Almost50]

@EJ: I'm still waiting on your hypo-claims. N_M explicitly said he was against doing that, but you neither said that nor did you provide a list of hypo claims.

[Sashaddin]

You and Ofrhz fall under what I call "follower scummers". You aren't the ones who come up with the plans, just follow them.

If I were scum, I'd probably be a follower, indeed. Thanks for your detailed answer!

[Elsa Jay]

Elsa The Eccentric

Abilities: Lucky guesses,

Never claiming VT on the stand regardless of alignment,

Role-playing, and urge to fuck around with people, enemy or ally.

So quick question: do we all want to basically start the real game now or later?

I can get us ice cream

for either occasion.

Was originally gonna claim

Vanilla Cop

, but then this fucker came along with this.

Well fine. It's a complement because I gotta do this shit.

Mafia appear to be informed and know about Daycop because I'm the Daycop.

Checked Almost's slot

and knew he was town, so when the replacement option came I made sure to get Almost because I trust his reads really well.

What makes you think I didnt put my real claim in my fake claim, Almost?

[DVa]

N_M posted this as I entered the game:

Hey Almost, help me pls, they're picking on me

Again, not much to most anyone else, but it felt like and honest and genuine cry for help, and I it just hit me as more likely to come from town!him. That and "something else" that I would still rather not explicitly state if I ever want to have a way of reading him in the future.

I guess you can choose to believe that's more likely to come from town, but I saw it as just a joke acknowledgement that you were going to defend him regardless of alignment, which means that not only is he well aware of your express desire to defend him on a metagame level but you basically did exactly what he said, which makes the metagaming mutual at this point--which is one reason I got so pissed at you in d1 over this very issue. Like that interaction just tells me that you will both defend each other regardless of alignment, which makes both of you less interesting to engage with as a result.

The problem is you have such a low standard for N_M that any sort of towntell seems extremely easy to fake. I doubt there's a very deep gradient in difference between his scum play and town play. He's obviously not a total idiot, he just chooses to do glib shitposts instead of writing intelligible arguments

[DVa]

That aside, why is Clem scum again A50?

[Almost50]

What makes you think I didnt put my real claim in my fake claim, Almost?

FGSm I'm not asking you claim your role. I'm asking you to give hypothetical results. If that was your real claim then we don't know your result of last night still. You need to find a way to leave us your results if you should flip.

So, give us the 3 hypo claims and if you flip overnight and we see you're a Vanilla Cop we will know who you checked and what result you got. If you are a DayCop (and I think we came to the conclusion that this is highly unlikely, but whatever) then you can fit your result into the hypo claims still.

But if you ARE a DayCop I think you would have given us a clear/guilty of D2 already, wouldn't you?

I'm starting to distrust you, my friend. Holding back on a simple hypo claiming process could mean you're afraid of saying something that could be used against you later. I dunno what that might be, but it sure as hell isn't natural for you to refuse to throw out 3 random 9or non-random) hypothetical results. Is it?

[Almost50]

That aside, why is Clem scum again A50?

I don't remember why exactly, but I have him alead by far as the top suspect, AND I have a little remark that he's unlikely to be scum with Carmen (who is my 2nd top suspect).

[Elsa Jay]

I dont see the need to have more then 1 possibly-fake claim at this point, so I'll just stick with the VC check on you, thank you very much.

A simple question to counter your distrust...would I put a gambit in a gambit on top of another person's gambit?

[Almost50]

I dont see the need to have more then 1 possibly-fake claim at this point, so I'll just stick with the VC check on you, thank you very much.

A simple question to counter your distrust...would I put a gambit in a gambit on top of another person's gambit?

So, you're claiming 1-shot DayCop? Is that it?? Because if that's your claim then I know I'm going down tonight!

And as for what you could/would do.. I think you're selling yourself a bit too off price. I wouldn't put ANYTHING beyond you, as either alignment, tbh.

[Elsa Jay]

You and Ofrhz fall under what I call "follower scummers". You aren't the ones who come up with the plans, just follow them.

If I were scum, I'd probably be a follower, indeed. Thanks for your detailed answer!

I'm also not ignoring the fact you said this, Sash. What the HECK is this? I atleast expected you to go after Ofr for that, or even me... But nobody? Sigh.

Among Clem and Carmen, who is more likely to be scum in your opinion? Or if you REALLY think it's NotMaf, explain why in better detail.

I'll also accept a case on me to show you're trying.

[Sashaddin]

I'm also not ignoring the fact you said this, Sash. What the HECK is this? I atleast expected you to go after Ofr for that, or even me... But nobody? Sigh.

I wanted to think before typing, like reading orfhz'iso or something.. When I don't think, I look impulsive and... what you think of me above. I also didn't have type to type much iirc, my wife is in post partum so she's very naggy. I can jump off here in there during the day. During nighttime I have more time. I'll go spend some time on this game now.

[ofrhz]

I don’t think elsa’s daycop cc was serious. I’m kind of wondering why she’s alive tho

read the rest of her posts

VOTE: sasha

Explain this progression?

650 was pretty bad considering there was just someone who "claimed something improbable, got caught" and was town. Like, if scum knew that Elsa was fakeclaiming yesterday, they would also conceivably keep her alive as an easy mislynch, which was basically my thought here
Sasha then quoted something grossly out of context to try to make his point
There may also have been some unabashed sheeping involved in my vote on Sasha

[Sashaddin]

In post 313 Orfhz reads a bit of town into BEF. From 441 and up she is puttting pressure on him.I could read this as distancing since BEF was pretty much going to be the lynch of that day. Not much else in there. I don't think I can have a case on her with only this.

[ofrhz]

{Carmen, Sashaddin, Ofrhz, NotMafia, Clemency}

If I divide it further...

{Ofrhz, Sashaddin}
{Carmen, Clemency, NotMafia}

Those 2 groups probably have one scum each.

Are you townreading A50? Why

[Sashaddin]

650 was pretty bad considering there was just someone who "claimed something improbable, got caught" and was town.

To be honest, I don't remember anyone saying anything that had countering EJ's claim, so I thought everyone was along with it. I thought BEF "bluff" about his role had fished a scum... I didn't see the obviousness, sorry.

[ofrhz]

@DVa: I like the multi-hypo thing, and we can refine it even further by claiming guilty only results. I have come to the conclusion that a Mafia Doctor is highly unlikely (thank EJ for bringing that up), so both Mafia will have guns = X has a gun is NOT a guilty on anyone really.
Neapolitan will see anyone but VTs as "Not VT", so whether the target is Mafia or Town they won't tell the difference, Only a true VT will know if either of these is BSing.
Vanilla Cop? That one I can't decide on, because I don't know if Mafia have Goons or not, so "Not Vanilla" on a Goon will give them away, but -still- given I don't think Vanilla Cop is in play I don't mind it if the majority agree to it.

Now I will take your hypo-claims in #733 as is but will apply my own "tweak" to my own claims and go like:

as a Gunsmith, ofrhz HAS a gun

as a Neapolitan, Clemency in NOT a VT

as a Vanilla cop, DVa is NOT Vanilla

uh ok
Gunsmith - Carmen has a gun
Nea - Clemency is not vanilla
Vanilla Cop - A50 is not vanilla

[ofrhz]

trust me i'm having a complex internal dilemma on whether elsa underestimated the power of stupidity like me or whether he was stringing me along
i wanna at least see this wagon through

I didn't understand this. You were calling for BEF to be hammered before Elsa even cc'd as daycop. How was he stringing you along? Can you explain it to me like I'm a child

Spoiler:

yeah no this feels like some next level bs
especially after trying to make it so cryptic
if you really are gonna try and make such a strong claim, why dance around the subject and come off belligerent? and you just happen to be the perfect role to 100% be sure of someone day 1 right after getting wagoned?
someone claim intent

so you're trying to drive two lynches back to back right after getting wagoned up

if you really are a daycop and this is how you've decided to lay out your claim, this is a half-step from gamethrowing

the reason you're not hammered yet is the fact that half the players haven't seen your batshit spastic flailing yet

[ofrhz]

In post 313 Orfhz reads a bit of town into BEF. From 441 and up she is puttting pressure on him.I could read this as

distancing

since BEF was pretty much going to be the lynch of that day. Not much else in there. I don't think I can have a case on her with only this.

.
It's not distancing because BEF wasn't scum

[Sashaddin]

It's not distancing because BEF wasn't scum

Ugh. Of course. So, I'm not having a good day on the internet either. Going to bed hoping tomorrow will be better.