Overkill 1: Serenity/Firefly (GAME OVER)

[Reasonably Rational]

it's nice to be able to townread Rational on something without it needing to be an emotional point.
mainly, because then when we agree i can feel better about that agreement.

Just ignore Drixx and only read me, and you should be able to avoid "feel" reads. ^^

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

it's nice to be able to townread Rational on something without it needing to be an emotional point.
mainly, because then when we agree i can feel better about that agreement.

Just ignore Drixx and only read me, and you should be able to avoid "feel" reads. ^^

-Cerb

..|..

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, also.

This needs to die. If this doesn't die, then you're all bad and you should feel bad.

VOTE: Tails

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, also.

This needs to die. If this doesn't die, then you're all bad and you should feel bad.

VOTE: Tails

-Cerb

I concur. Lots of reasons but the most obvious ones suffice I think.

Sorry Tails. I like you but you replaced into a scum slot.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Nope, we have the right one.

I gave a list of people who those clues could indicate, and the only possible town in that list was Simon.

Most likely scum from that alone, but that's not actually a good reason.

There are good reasons. Lynch them.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Maybe get up your partner's ass for inviting people to figure it out. I at least made sure everyone was on the same page,because if I can figure it out on my own, imagine what multiple players can piece together.

We've actually been watching people for that very reason.

CT had almost certainly figured it out, I'd be surprised if RR hadn't. Chara had not.

If Gamma died or didn't die, it gave us a chance to read those people. And leaving it to WIFOM so that scum had to second guess whether they were right or not was definitely the right call.

Unfortunately this game has been analyzed at a -1 level for me(not even 0 level). I've been a pretty shitty player honestly.

And I see no reason to elaborate at this time. People were certainly willing to wagon the slot when it was nico in it, prior to Chickadee making her claim.

If you ignore her claim, I don't see why those same people aren't back on the wagon.

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

id be town

to finally lynch the NDS slot which i wanted to from the very beginning

PFFT YOU'LL NEVER BE TOWN AND YOU KNOW IT.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

If you aren't ignoring her claim, you should be explaining why it's more likely that the results she received point at Tails being River/Simon over the other options, in spite of evidence to the contrary.

Oh, I think it's almost certain she's River/Simon/HoB.

I just also think the possibility that the slot is the only reasonable protective role for town (an easy deduction from "Simon") makes it a really tempting shot for scum of the opposite team. I'm like 90% sure the slot isn't River, btw, given that River is the best possible match flavorwise to two other claimed roles, and one of the two possible mason pairs. All of which are highly likely to flip.

I far and away support lynching in the questionmark roles (NDS, Menno, Toranaganate,

maybe

Chara) over either townreads or those slots likely to be shot. It's multiball.

This is not a compelling argument for not lynching the slot.

-Cerb

The argument that I'd prefer scum kill him to town killing him, or the argument that his alignment becomes a known quantity given a Simon flip?

Because I'm totes down to leave him alive

tonight

on the basis that he might be Simon. Which incidentally, was the basis for leaving the slot alive

tonight

when I posted my (Don't lynch these mechanically) list.

If you have an argument that doesn't largely rely on 'It's a PoE lurker slot' I'd be glad to hear it. Til then I think "There is at least one scum team to whom that slot looks like a very appetizing kill because it has a high expected value to be a protective role" is a good reason not to lynch that slot

today

.

No, I mean the argument that scum will even bother attempting to kill them. I find that unlikely, and without that point in their favor...better to get rid of them.

Plus they could totally be The Operative or Jubal Early and thus a SK type role, so removing them lowers the KPN of the game.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm.

Why are we lynching menno again?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

3rd party is awesome tho. Oh, we can still be friends Mala, no worry about that. Just let it be known you are also the one I'm using as a Get out of Lynch free card for a day when they start wanting to kill off the Neuts.

You and Mala should play this game the way Cerb and I played in Protomen. We were a 3rd party faction with a partner who could win with the town (which you can do, and mala can

maybe

do if we power through scum quickly enough). We realized immediately that we could win with the town only if we won fast, and we nailed it.

Sometimes 3rd party really can play for town's win con. We certainly did with every intent (and success) right from the start of that game.

So ... do the same and we won't ever have to rope you to avoid you choosing the easy win if the game goes to a kingmaker or M/LYLO situation.

~D

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum,

and

the flip acts as a check on Chick.

[Reasonably Rational]

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum, and the flip acts as a check on Chick.

how long were you sitting on that one in your PT? :>

When did I first tell the game that the slot was almost certainly scum? Before that, obviously.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

P.S. - The chances that NR dropped in the "2" crumb and somehow isn't HoB are drastically low. Hands of Blue. Two by two. Since we have our character redacted, there's no way that NR did that as a River crumb. Tails did a good job trying to salvage the slot, and even avoided the Amished tell ... but it's still the most probable slot we have to be scum, and the flip acts as a check on Chick.

how long were you sitting on that one in your PT? :>

When did I first tell the game that the slot was almost certainly scum? Before that, obviously.

~D

...I totally brought it up first :/ guess you need to be RR to be taken seriously.

No need for this passive aggressive crap Cheeky. Chara asked because we have a history of sitting on things for long periods of time in order to get other things accomplished or to spend time evaluating and being sure. I mean ... Cerberus was onto it before I was but I went way out of my way to make sure I got a post in before day one ended, below:

I mean ... that spew of crap could be give up posting I suppose. That's some consolation.

There is a VERY strong reason to believe that NicoRobin is scum in this game. Like bordering on logical certainty reasoning. Just trying to get this in before threadlock.

~D

If you were onto the slot before us ... cool. It's a co-operative game after all.

I do have to say that your desire to have credit in a multi-ball game is not doing you any favors.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

If you were onto the slot before us ... cool. It's a co-operative game after all.

I do have to say that your desire to have credit in a multi-ball game is not doing you any favors.

~D

I wasn't onto NR before you, just the crumbing which I didn't think was AI until the scum flip, combined with Chicks reads. I was just feeling sorry for myself but what do you mean it doesn't do me any favours? It wasn't a dig at you so no idea what you mean by passive aggressive crap.

Possible I read into the tone of the post more than I should have. What I mean is that making a post wanting credit is a bad look in a multiball game. I've had some time to think on it and I'm kind of feeling like scum would be super hesitant to try and grab credit for a lynch in this situation.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Traditional SK wins when they are the last person standing. The game ends when all town are dead or all threats to town are dead. This highly suggests that any and all scumteams can in fact win together.

Unaligned scum being possible, but less likely than two teams is based on the fact that a team of less than three people doesn't benefit from rule 3 at all. It's possible that that rule is solely for the benefit of town and HoB, but that seems like a needless handicap for unaligned scum when they already mechanically have a harder time winning than groupscum.

Numbers wise, 2 teams makes the most sense, because 9 town + 2 Neutral + 3 + 3 is 17. We have two reasonable neutral claims, a confirmed team of three via the traitor flip, and a flavor based on a group of exactly nine people.

This is something I wish you hadn't said out loud.

Yes, smart scum will have realized this..but if we're looking at multiple unaligned scum, that is, single individuals...one person could miss it.

Instead of scum looking for one another in order to shoot, they'll be looking for one another to know who to *not* shoot.

:-/

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm fascinated about how long the McMenno counter is working compared to the Tails wagon. Something is strange there.

I thought so too. You can try getting the momentum back on that wagon if you like (not likely, given the replacement), or try voting JabJabs with me. Or you can vote me because you don't like trolly foxes and we can never be friends. I'll cry, but I'll get over it. Whatever you do, get off Nancy. That wagon ain't happening.

I don't think you understand what Thor is saying, or maybe I'm not understanding. I think he's saying he's fascinated by how persistent the menno wagon is, IN SPITE of these other wagons that are popping up.

Thor, can you clarify what fascinates you about it?

Tails, given that the slot had barely any posts, how am I supposed to view your (if I give you the benefit of the doubt) tongue-in-cheek complaint about the "fresh"ness of the slot?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm fascinated about how long the McMenno counter is working compared to the Tails wagon. Something is strange there.

I thought so too. You can try getting the momentum back on that wagon if you like (not likely, given the replacement), or try voting JabJabs with me. Or you can vote me because you don't like trolly foxes and we can never be friends. I'll cry, but I'll get over it. Whatever you do, get off Nancy. That wagon ain't happening.

I don't think you understand what Thor is saying, or maybe I'm not understanding. I think he's saying he's fascinated by how persistent the menno wagon is, IN SPITE of these other wagons that are popping up.

Thor, can you clarify what fascinates you about it?

Tails, given that the slot had barely any posts, how am I supposed to view your (if I give you the benefit of the doubt) tongue-in-cheek complaint about the "fresh"ness of the slot?

-Cerb

People who are viewing the posts of others as "scumplaining", what differentiates the posts Tail has made from those that you've marked as suspect?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Alright so we're all on the same page here, this is what I got when I copped Nico/Tails. My focus went to the second video more than the first because it seems more significant.

There is exactly 0 chance that they're either Simon OR River. That second video basically screams NO THEY ARE NOT THESE TWO PEOPLE, based on the result you got on TPFKAP.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

fuuuuck I had that all typed out. -___-

Here goes again.

I'm just going to paraphrase my role PM to the best of my ability instead of addressing every single thing because there's a lot of overlap of what people are wanting from me.

My official claim is Modified Day Flavor Cop. Once each day I can submit the name of someone and the mod will give me clues as to their flavor. Nothing is straight forward. It's all up to be deciphered. Hints could be something the character is associated with, or an event in the series where I interact with them, literally anything.

The videos I got when I copped Nico focused heavily on River. Simon was there too. But it was mostly people hunting River, Simon finding and saving River, River struggling with what's going on. All abut River. I suppose that could lead to Simon instead.

I copped when he was at L-2, so that if I had doubts I could try to save the wagon. I got the HOB image, and let it go through. I was astronomically busy in the real world toward the end of D1. But I was sure it was scum so I didn't say anything.

I don't really do hinting toward my role. In my experience, town doesn't pick up on it, and scum does, so I just kept it to myself yesterday.

We still need the time you submitted the actions, and when you received the results.

Also...a bunch of River focused images could mean the target is HoB(note, you didn't see Dobson when you copped him, you saw HoB), OR Simon, OR The Operative, OR Jubal Early, OR River.

@Chara: Sorry. I did what I keep bitching at Elsa about, but I just can't stand people taking positions that are fundamentally wrong.
-Cerb

Also, going back to this: Guess who I didn't see in either of those videos? HoB, or Jubal Early.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Chickadee's probability of being scum is rising incredibly fast.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Main reasons to consider you as possible scum:

Claimed ability is perfect flavor for HoB, especially as a means to discover your traitor.
Obstinate refusal to reconsider the way your ability works...something which you should really do rather easily given your Porkens result.

Flavor cop outing themselves to save a lurker? Improbable, and though I do see copping nico as a reasonable move, I dont believe doing so as soon as the day starts makes even the slightest bit of sense.

I'd need to actually iso you like I've been meaning to find more.

The main evidence in favor of you not being scum(assuming nico/tails is): putting a target on yourself like this by going so far out of your way to save your teammate.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't want Nico to be HoB? I couldn't care less, and the whole push is my other head inspired. *shrug* Everything I'm saying is accurate however.

Ily too!
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Because I arrived at a different conclusion than you?

Because there is no thought process which arises out of you being town that produces your last few posts.

You claim the following:

1.) You're a day flavor cop who is given some visual (photo/video) clue about who your target is.
2.) Your 1st cop was used on TPFKAP and you were given HoB
3.) Your 2nd cop was on NR and you got the two videos
4.) Those two videos make you believe the NR/Tails slot is River


This is a complete hot mess right from the start. There's quite a few problems.

First there's the problem of claiming to have gotten a "clear guilty" on TPFKAP but ... you didn't say a word about it until today. Your initial claim was that you got the result immediately prior to entering an "escape room" (I had to look up what that was to make sure it was what I thought when I read it), but you gave time stamps in response to Cerb that made no sense. It was a great catch and very fast ... but what seems to have been forgotten by most of the game was that you used that time to explain why you didn't say anything at all yesterday. It would have been

trivially easy

for you to drop in a post you could have referred to with your claim today.

But you didn't. Because you were going into an escape room. 12 hours later. - There's no world where I believe you don't post something cryptic which you can later use to back yourself up when you claim. Your excuse for not doing so (unprompted excuse, btw) was that your phone was dying and you were heading into an escape room. Neither of those were the case though. You even stressed the point

AFTER

you changed the am/pm time by tying your phone dying to the original "wrong" time.

Then we bump into the cognitive dissonance you are putting on display now, if we assume you really have the role you claim and really got the results you claim. We're supposed to believe that you got a picture of one of the HoB teams (2 by 2, hands of blue has a double meaning) and therefore knew that meant TPFKAP was guilty... but as it turns out, his character wasn't a part of the HoB teams. He was an independent alliance officer who managed to track Simon down and there's literally no way anyone would have connected him to HoB prior to that flip.

So even though you should know for certain, if your claims are true, that your clues are not necessarily direct and obvious ... you insist that the only possible meaning of those videos, which display the fact that Simon and River are on the run, is that your target is one of them.

I'm sorry ... but I've never met anyone on this site who would actually believe that with the certainty you are feigning.

I would continue, but I'm pretty sure this suffices.

~D

P-Edit: No. The very last thing either Cerb or I do is force things to fit. You might want to check out the Litany of Tarski. It's useful when training oneself to think carefully and rationally.

[Reasonably Rational]

the Litany of Tarski.

Wow. I love it.

Litany of Gendlin, presented without additional commentary:

What is true is already so.
Owning up to it doesn't make it worse.
Not being open about it doesn't make it go away.
And because it's true, it is what is there to be interacted with.
Anything untrue isn't there to be lived.
People can stand what is true,
for they are already enduring it.
—Eugene Gendlin

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Then flip me Drixx. Do it.

Why? There's a reasonably rational explanation which explains your claim being true and your last several posts. I'm only curious whether we're seeing

belief

or if we're seeing

belief in belief

at work here.

In any case, I remain focused on the NR/Tails slot. They are significantly more probable to flip as scum and their flip should give further insight into you.

I'm also extra interested in McMenno, but probably not for the reasons one might think.

The game has also ground to a near halt, which should be screaming some things at anyone paying attention.

~D

P-edit: Whence comes the idea of "like" or "dislike"? In the rare circumstance you can find someone we actually dislike (a difficult enough task), you would be tremendously hard pressed to find us leveraging that in a game. It's a freaking game. A game in which whether or not I like someone has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the solution.

[Reasonably Rational]

Whence comes the idea of "like" or "dislike"? In the rare circumstance you can find someone we actually dislike (a difficult enough task), you would be tremendously hard pressed to find us leveraging that in a game. It's a freaking game. A game in which whether or not I like someone has absolutely no bearing whatsoever on the solution.

I've played with you before. I know you can be influenced into thinking someone is scum because they irked you on some level. We all are, even if we try to minimize the bias. And I'm pretty sure that's what happening here.

I guarantee if I was not playing on this account, you would not be going down this road.

Umm ... I haven't got the first clue who you are. I thought briefly that you might be MS but I'm pretty sure MS ate a perma ban. So the only bias I might have towards you would be a positive one.

That slot has been on the radar for a long time. You need only look to the last few posts of day 1 to see me diving in to get a post in before the day ended that I was fairly certain your slot is scum.

And my own failures as a rationalist also have no bearing on what the solution is. Pointing out that a rationalist has fallen into irrational thinking before is like pointing at the sky and saying "blue". We're the first ones to be aware of that and admit it.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Tails ... I don't suppose if I just said

fundamental attribution error

, that would be enough for you to check yourself and calm down and stop slinging attacks?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Your current working theory being scum would get pictures and town get videos?

No. I'm saying I got a clue of scum, on a scum flip.

I mean, even just extrapolating that thought;

"Porkens got image of HoB because he was looking for HoB"
"Maybe a video of bro and sis being hunted by HoB is because your target is HoB looking for them"

Would that make sense to your current thought process for how the clues work?

The 2 thing is really weird and really seems like a HoB crumb, yeah?

This is more in line with what I'm thinking. But the vibe of the videos very much rings town to me. How do you feel about the language in the second video? Simon talks about saving river. I feel like if someone were looking for them, an image would suffice, so I feel like the audio is important. And the fact there's two videos.

If I had to believe that Tails is any sort of scum, I wouldn't go HoB. I'd go operative.

But there's a line in my role pm that keeps striking me, making me think Tails is town aligned.

1) If the line isn't related to the way your actual role works, then it's irrelevant.
2) If it is related to the way your actual role works, it is relevant, and should be shared. If you have any concerns about whether you can or can not share something, draft up a post including the information, send it to the moderator, and ask for their judgement before you post it in the thread.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Your current working theory being scum would get pictures and town get videos?

No. I'm saying I got a clue of scum, on a scum flip.

I mean, even just extrapolating that thought;

"Porkens got image of HoB because he was looking for HoB"
"Maybe a video of bro and sis being hunted by HoB is because your target is HoB looking for them"

Would that make sense to your current thought process for how the clues work?

The 2 thing is really weird and really seems like a HoB crumb, yeah?

This is more in line with what I'm thinking. But the vibe of the videos very much rings town to me. How do you feel about the language in the second video? Simon talks about saving river. I feel like if someone were looking for them, an image would suffice, so I feel like the audio is important. And the fact there's two videos.

If I had to believe that Tails is any sort of scum, I wouldn't go HoB. I'd go operative.

But there's a line in my role pm that keeps striking me, making me think Tails is town aligned.

1) If the line isn't related to the way your actual role works, then it's irrelevant.
2) If it is related to the way your actual role works, it is relevant, and should be shared. If you have any concerns about whether you can or can not share something, draft up a post including the information, send it to the moderator, and ask for their judgement before you post it in the thread.

-Cerb

Also, another thing: Do you think that you'll always get a image of scum, when copping scum? That is, do you think that your role is functionally a day cop, though it tries to obfuscate that fact that giving you clues in the form of pictures/videos?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm actually reasonably sure that the videos mean Tails isn't HoB, having now actually watched them, FWIW.

He could be scum, but HoB is hearing hoofbeats and screaming zebra. There are no zebras in space.

Please explain what you get from the videos and why. It would be very helpful to us since we're doing our usual thing in our hydra PT.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

From the Serenity wiki:

"In the Serenity comics, the blue "gloves" are shown to extend to and cover the upper body as well. They were finally killed when Serenity's engine flare incinerated them, and the Alliance passes the assignment to retrieve the Tams to the Operative, explaining why it is he and not them in the movie Serenity who is chasing them."

The game flavour is based on Joss Whedon's Firefly (TV Series 2002–2003) & the subsequent movie Serenity.

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

With that said, I also think it's a bit much to assume that Tails *can't* be HoB simply because the movie trailer was used, and they weren't present in the movie. Everything there is clearly focused on Simon and/or River, and there's a short list of direct connections(which I've already listed), and an infinite list of indirect connections(for example, someone could argue that the images received actually prove that Tails could be Wash/Zoe, or Mal/Inara, or Simon/Kaylee, because those are the intimate pairings that exist in the show which the trailer could be referencing). I think going down the indirect connection path of analysis completely devalues Chickadee's claimed role and results, and is unlikely to be what was intended...but still, a case could be made if you wanted to go down that rabbit hole.

@Chickadee: Right, that thing. I noticed it, I just didn't think it was important, because it isn't. It says the clue COULD BE something you were involved in with the character. There's nothing certain about the relationship between the information you have and the characters you're copping.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The videos have two primary points of emphasis:

1.) Simon and River
2.) The fact that they are both on the run

If the videos are to be any use whatsoever, then it follows the connection should be fairly straightforward and should not require a lot of mental leaps.

The first clue was simply a picture of the HoB team, but it was a clue for a character who was never explicitly linked to them in the show. The "connection" between TPFKAP and that picture is that they're both searching for River and Simon. A50 chose to make that character a traitor member of the scum team with the HoB pair (which is a stretch, but stretches are required to make a themed game still mafia).

There isn't actually anything within the videos that should make us prefer one conclusion over another (NR/Tails slot is one of {Simon,River} OR NR/Tails slot is one of the group chasing them). The fact that the first flavor clue did not show the actual character is weak evidence to believe that NR/Tails will be someone not present in the videos.

So logically we have only one piece of weak evidence to make us believe that NR/Tails slot is among the group pursuing River and Simon.

But then we have the crumb, which is one of only two substantive posts that NR made.

And then we have another reason to believe NR/Tails slot is probably scum. Namely NR's behavior. First NR admitted to having a vendetta against us (Cerb and I) because we played to our win con in SU2 and could have chosen another path that would not have eliminated his faction. Then NR desperado shot me in FG's Boundaries of Reality game, which is now over. The rationale for shooting me was stated roughly as "I don't have time to play so I'm going to shoot Drixx because he's probably town and that suicides me out of the game." -- NR literally

game threw

over that vendetta.

But never said a word about time constraints in this game. Just prodged until players demanded a replacement. Why? What would motivate NR to try and stay in a much larger game when he was happy to literally game throw and suicide out of another game due to time constraints?

We can't know for sure at the moment, but given what we have to go by (NR's posts in this game and that now completed game), it doesn't seem like he was trying to stick around to do us good.

Add in the crumbing and it's just more weak evidence. But at this point we have a growing pile of independent pieces of weak evidence with no reason whatsoever to believe the alternative hypothesis.


~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

That's entirely missing the point. The point isn't that they died in the comics. The point is that they were never even referenced in the movie.

The first of the two videos is about the movie. Entirely about the movie.

The characters you are saying make the most sense for the clue don't appear in the movie.

Therefore, said characters are unlikely to be referenced through specifically a clue centered around the movie.

I'm not disputing that the angle of "They're focused on Simon and River, therefore videos of Simon and River." makes sense. I'm arguing that including a video of the portion of the flavor for which the character is conspicuously absent is a shitty way to leave a clue about the character.

Your case is built on two pieces of evidence that I believe to be counterindicative. A result from Chick suggesting NOT HoB and a crumb from NR suggesting HoB.

I disagree with the conclusion that the absence of HoB from the film means the slot can't be HoB.

-Cerb

pedit: Look at Drixx using all the words to say what I was saying.

[Reasonably Rational]

We will lynch flicker(until someone explains the thing about what we discussed earlier that makes them town) or Tails.
That is as far as we will compromise. That is, not at all.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The entire thing about flavor in role PMs etc was kicked off by flicker being super reluctant to say anything about their role on even after having claimed their role,combined with scum having flipped with an explicit warning that town do not have flavor. Their reticence and lack of the (as we view it) possibly clearing awareness displayed by cheeky, jingles, and chara makes them more likely to be scum than town. If it were just the ignorance, I'd call it null, but scum would be very aware that they needed to tread lightly if someone was probing I. that direction.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Role on=role PM, mobile, sorry.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Aligned with Serenity comes from the Sample town role pm. And you are misreading that post. Flicker did not have the same awareness displayed by {Cheeky, Jingles, chara} which makes them (Flicker) more likely to be scum than town.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Aligned with Serenity comes from the Sample town role pm. And you are misreading that post. Flicker did not have the same awareness displayed by {Cheeky, Jingles, chara} which makes them (Flicker) more likely to be scum than town.

~D

Oh. Ok I can see what you're seeing.

What do you make of Toogeloo saying that he's town but that he also had no flavour in their role PM?

Spoiler: Toog discussing flavour

idk who I am

Neither do I. My flavor was cut out "to be revealed later."

Is it bad that I townread everyone except RC, Tor and Chickadee?

Most impressive since like half the game hadn't posted yet.

Joke went over too many heads.

Mod did not, nor did I ask, reveal my flavor. I don't know what I am.

Flavor wise... I "might" be River since, ya know, everyone wants to find her and me taking action would of course make all heads turn my way.

For the record, I do not have any flavor between the 1 and 2 RR was looking for.

My Role PM is simply...
"You are

[REDACTED]

. You are a

Lightning Rod

.

[Explanation of Lightning Rod]

. You win when all threats to the Serenity Crew are gone."

I am not Compulsive.

I'll also happily lynch any 3rd party claim, but that's not the same as actively hunting for 3rd party.

That's why I said the problem isn't solely the ignorance, but also the RETICENCE to discuss the matter. It's the attitude they approached that line of questioning with; evasion, then a claim of being afraid of being modkilled, then finally posting *something* that corresponds exactly to the sample role pm given. The last part is immaterial, but the fact that the conversation didn't start with that is a red flag to us.

Their reticence and lack of the (as we view it) possibly clearing awareness displayed by cheeky, jingles, and

chara

makes them more likely to be scum than town.

Can you expand on Chara here?

I'd need to go look through their quotes, but they did definitely act as though they had seen the same thing jingles saw; reevaluation in depth is necessary to gauge how strongly I should townread them as a result of those posts however. It's important to note that the knowledge displayed by these slots does *not* conftown them; it's a simple logical deduction to look at the only significant interaction we had with flicker, and the critical difference between the sample role PM and the scum flip(that is, the clear warning that town do not have flavor) and realize that there was SOMETHING in at least our role PM that didn't match up and was making us suspicious. In spite of the possibility that observant scum could have faked these reactions, those slots are off the table for lynching today at least.

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

That's entirely missing the point. The point isn't that they died in the comics. The point is that they were never even referenced in the movie.

The first of the two videos is about the movie. Entirely about the movie.

The characters you are saying make the most sense for the clue don't appear in the movie.

Therefore, said characters are unlikely to be referenced through specifically a clue centered around the movie.

I'm not disputing that the angle of "They're focused on Simon and River, therefore videos of Simon and River." makes sense. I'm arguing that including a video of the portion of the flavor for which the character is conspicuously absent is a shitty way to leave a clue about the character.

Your case is built on two pieces of evidence that I believe to be counterindicative. A result from Chick suggesting NOT HoB and a crumb from NR suggesting HoB.

I disagree with the conclusion that the absence of HoB from the film means the slot can't be HoB.

-Cerb

pedit: Look at Drixx using all the words to say what I was saying.

How does that make any sense?

How does what make sense Gamma? I don't entirely understand what you're getting at. The game is based on both the film and the tv show. The use of material from the movie in clues that are clearly focused on characters in both mediums does not mean that a character which interacts with that character in just one medium can't be the subject.

Chick ask the mod what happens if you cop the same person twice. Do you get new clues or the same ones?

I’ve asked, but regardless of answer, I’m not interested in wasting days to cop people multiple times.



I’m not interested in a tails or a flicker lynch based on reasons provided. I think there’s compelling evidence to suggest tails is town. Even without the results I got, I think their play has been town today.

@RR I also don’t have flavor textin my pm. It’s just [REDACTED], role, explain roll.



Can we all get on a McMenno lynch?

No we can't. See my response to Thor below.

@Thor: Forgot to quote, sorry. I am not hard towning NDS. I am, however, unwilling to vote anywhere that I believe is less likely to find scum than Flicker and Tails, and NDS falls into that category(as does McMenno).

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Tails - You don't get to say that Nico "just flaked". Nico literally crossed into game throwing territory in another game (again; now complete) with the claim of not enough time to play. Suicided out of that game by desperado shooting me. But

intentionally

remained in this game, despite this game being a much heavier load and more time consuming.

What motive explains that?

I understand why you both ignored this the first time around and

then

tried to drop bullshit into the game to get people to believe that Nico just "flaked" but ... that doesn't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah I read that game nico was in and she posted actual game content and was town

And what did you think of the exit from that game? Obviously I'm going to be biased since that action ended the day and conftowned me which got me killed out of the game, and given the mechanics of that game, I believe it was a significant factor in the town's loss.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Tails (5):	Reasonably Rational (2914),	Flicker (2952),	Chara (3104),	Malakittens (3110),	Elsa Jay (3182),
Light Ethos (3):	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2814),	Chickadee (2988),	BuJaber (3058),
BuJaber (3):	CheekyTeeky (3060),	Tails (3066),	Gamma Emerald (3113),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Chickadee (1):	Toogeloo (2872),
CheekyTeeky (1):	Light Ethos (2985),
Not voting (2):	Aristophanes (2912),	Jingle (3143),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

Light Ethos and Bujaber, in the interest of preserving your own lives, I highly recommend that you vote Tails.

Thanks.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Tails, neither of us have a grudge against Nico, and I very much doubt she actually has a grudge against us. As a matter of fact, she invited our hydra to join her in another game she was in during the first day phase of this game. None of us have any problems with playing with the others.

None of that changes the fact that when faced with an overwhelming amount of *stuff* to deal with, such that she felt it best to suicide out of a game, she chose to stay in this game. Whatever motivation you want to ascribe to that is up to you.

@Gamma: Really Gamma? Mental gymnastics? Please tell me you're capable of saying more than that in an attempt to dissuade me from a position I'm holding.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Tails - You don't get to say that Nico "just flaked". Nico literally crossed into game throwing territory in another game (again; now complete) with the claim of not enough time to play. Suicided out of that game by desperado shooting me. But

intentionally

remained in this game, despite this game being a much heavier load and more time consuming.

What motive explains that?

I understand why you both ignored this the first time around and

then

tried to drop bullshit into the game to get people to believe that Nico just "flaked" but ... that doesn't hold up to any kind of scrutiny.

~D

You guys didn't replace in. Nico didn't replace out upon seeing you enter sign-ups. So it appears she was set on playing the game with you guys in it. You both admitted in the queue that you were carrying grudges against each other. She voted you first chance she got. And now you're carrying a vendetta against her slot. From what it sounds like, your last game together was very different as far as circumstances go, where she had the ability to both act on her grudge and take both of you out of the game. You're assuming the same sort of utility was available to her here. It was not. You're assuming that she would have replaced out sooner instead of prod dodging and flaking, because she acted earlier in your other game. But she didn't /out when she saw you sign up, so what makes you really think that she'd replace out immediately as either alignment here? The fact remains that there's evidence suggesting she really wanted to play this game and then couldn't for whatever reason. I have further evidence that suggests to me that she just flaked out and never came back. That's not me speculating. That's me knowing. If you have a grudge against Nico, fine. Work that out on your own time. But leave me out of it. Otherwise, this whole endeavor is just really dishonest.

Fuck off with that bullshit. Neither Cerb nor I expressed any grudge against NR anywhere, let alone the signup thread. You just wandered into LAL territory as far as I'm concerned. Your entire post is a bunch of horse shit because that's all you have. You have ATE and now outright lying to try and avoid the noose. Fucking pathetic (play; obviously).

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Like, if Nico/Tails is not town, they gotta basically be a 3p Simon/River or something.

Please explain how you arrive at this conclusion. It seems to rely upon Chick being honest. But if it

does

rely on that, it also has a huge logical flaw.

Chick's supposed day one cop was TPFKAP and the clue was not in any way related to the actual character that TPFKAP was... except that A50 decided to make Dobson aware that the HoB teams exist and aligned him with them. In terms of the show/movie ... there's no connection between Dobson and HoB.

So if the

first

clue didn't show the actual character ... why do you assume the second does?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Sorry ... gotta pick apart Tails' shit show of a post bit by bit. This might take the cake for worst post I've ever seen, and that's definitely saying something.

You guys didn't replace in. Nico didn't replace out upon seeing you enter sign-ups. So it appears she was set on playing the game with you guys in it.

No shit, Sherlock. You managed to work out that we didn't replace into the game and that Nico knew we were in the game from the start. Well fucking done. We never would have figured that shit out without you.

And thanks for reinforcing my point. NR, for some reason, was intent on playing this game while she felt the need to literally suicide out of a smaller game due to time constraints. When said game had less than 500 posts.

You both admitted in the queue that you were carrying grudges against each other.

Outright lie. Cerb said "Me too" in response to a post where NR said she wasn't over the game. That's not carrying a grudge. If Cerb or I (or both of us) were to have a grudge against someone, it would be Mastina for intentionally wasting a shit ton of my time in the final day phase and then going "Well ... I'd rather lose WITH you than TO you" and deciding what to do based upon that instead of ... you know ... the game.

She voted you first chance she got. And now you're carrying a vendetta against her slot.

Yes she did vote for us basically immediately.

Calling a very solid case with good reasoning a vendetta is amusing at best. You're nowhere near "at best" though. It's actually pretty sad and pathetic, especially given just how far you seem willing to stoop here.

From what it sounds like, your last game together was very different as far as circumstances go, where she had the ability to both act on her grudge and take both of you out of the game.

You might want to actually go look at something before you make wild unsubstantiated guesses. Just making shit up out of thin air is a bad look.

You're assuming the same sort of utility was available to her here. It was not.

Yes. We'll just take your word for it. That sounds like a brilliant plan. Man why didn't I think of that before?

You're assuming that she would have replaced out sooner instead of prod dodging and flaking, because she acted earlier in your other game.

Yes. When someone suicides out of a game with less than 500 posts and says they don't have time, it's absolutely

reasonable

to assume they would also not have time for a much larger game. That implies some

reason

to stay in the larger game. It's only weak evidence ... but it's far from the only piece.

But she didn't /out when she saw you sign up, so what makes you really think that she'd replace out immediately as either alignment here?

The fact that she chose to literally suicide out of a much smaller game to "save the mod" having to replace her. If someone is

THAT

busy then it follows they would also replace out of even more time consuming games. And ummm ... I never said "immediately" ... you just introduced that (along with quite a lot of made up bullshit in your post) to try and put words in my mouth. It's weaksauce strawmanning at best.

The fact remains that there's evidence suggesting she really wanted to play this game and then couldn't for whatever reason.

I'm glad we agree that NicoRobin expressed a reason to want to play this game. Literally expressed a vendetta against us in fact.

I have further evidence that suggests to me that she just flaked out and never came back.

That's not me speculating. That's me knowing.

Oh do tell. I'd really like to know how you know this for sure.

If you have a grudge against Nico, fine. Work that out on your own time. But leave me out of it. Otherwise, this whole endeavor is just really dishonest.

You're the one who introduced the idea that we have a grudge. We don't. You should check yourself before you come after my integrity again. Maybe ask around. You just attacked me personally and I don't put up with that shit.

---

This bullshit made up straw man pile of horse shit isn't going to cut it. How about you give us ANY reason to add even a smidge of weight to the "might be town" side of the scales, because so far all you've done is cry about the mod misrepresenting the slot to you, make a bunch of posts about how you aren't going to read the thread and therefore nobody can hold you accountable to what has gone on (awful convenient stance), post a shit ton of ATE, and then you decided to just make a bunch of shit up and have a go at me personally.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

1.) RR brings up past game where Nico suicided and game threw because of grudge.

2.) RR then says they'd expect Nico to do the same thing here as town (Nevermind the how) or replace out earlier

3.) RR ignores that Nico not avoiding the game when they signed up or replacing out beforehand or early on points to Nico actually wanting to play in the game. This is regardless of alignment.

The logic does not flow here. Especially when RR brings up Nico wanting them to play in another game with her at the start of this game's d1, pointing to no grudge or wanting to avoid them. But then they use the grudge thing here as proof of alignment? If Nico did not want to play with you as town here, why would she even invite you to play in another game where you could both be town?

And that's regardless of the fact that ALIGNMENT IS NAI!

#1 - Keep on spinning the grudge bullshit. Seriously. Keep on just making shit up and calling me dishonest and see how this goes.

#2 - If you don't stop posting made up shit, I'm going to actually get angry. That doesn't happen often. I never said I expected NR to suicide out of this game. I did say it's reasonable to believe that if she didn't have time to play a game less than 500 posts and suicided out of it then it would logically follow that she would REPLACE OUT of this game. She instead intentionally stayed in and prodged. She was replaced because people asked to override the game rules.

#3 - I'm going to assume you legitimately misunderstood. I've argued that Nico specifically stayed in and wanted to be in this game. But obviously not enough to actually

post and play

. So what exactly was she hanging around for? Could it be to carry out that vendetta she declared way back at the start of the game?

Also ... you may want to do some research and actually UNDERSTAND what "weak evidence" means. It's not the same thing as "Proof".

And just LMFAO at you saying "ALIGNMENT IS NOT ALIGNMENT INDICATIVE" at the end. I mean ... way to display amazing competence and proficiency there.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

@Thor: I don't think Nancy is happening. Who's your second choice?

Ari or maybe RR would be my next preferred. I'd probably compromise onto McMeeno.
Considering what Jingle just said about their thoughts on our roles and my expected thoughts on your flip maybe you

@Thor: Forgot to quote, sorry. I am not hard towning NDS. I am, however, unwilling to vote anywhere that I believe is less likely to find scum than Flicker and Tails, and NDS falls into that category(as does McMenno).

@Gamma: Really Gamma? Mental gymnastics? Please tell me you're capable of saying more than that in an attempt to dissuade me from a position I'm holding.

As someone who has been basically agreeing with Gamma's thoughts here, allow me to tag team in.

You do appear to be bending hard to suggest scum results.
Movies lack HoB - so video is unconnected in that way.
Video results from claimed cop that just show Serenity crew over and over - it's because scum are coming after them.
Nico played like a derphead in a game, ergo she was not lurking and was content to game throw or something so would do anything in this game (while doing spit all and flaking out).

Every piece of evidence is somehow evidence for your case, and that's the core evidence of a tunnel.

I agree that the '2' thing is suspect as hell, there is a big issue there and I haven't been thrilled by any answers that explain it away.
But I find it unlikely a maf would fake a cop to protect a buddy, and the cop result is a *stretch* to call a scum result.

The "cop" result is a stretch to call anything. The first "result" wasn't in any way connected to HoB that anyone uninformed could have guessed before the flip. There's just no connection in the show. TPFKAP had a character who was present for one episode but Chick was given a picture of the boogeymen.

I agree that just because the first clue was so disconnected does not require all clues to be disconnected. It's simply the only prior example we have to go on. That's why I assigned it "weak evidence" status.

The entire case on the slot is made up of pieces of "weak evidence". What the hell more do you expect when we're basically 3,350+ posts into effectively a day one?

Also ... NR/Tails being scum doesn't require Chickadee to be scum.

And then there's the "2" crumb.

And then there's the fact that Tails refuses to actually engage in anything that remotely looks like town play.

~D

P.S. - You have a really big cognitive dissonance slip in the above post.

[Reasonably Rational]

Given the context, I obviously meant activity. But sure. Go on spinning your little wheels there. And you try to crap on me and say that I'm making crap up, but you're the one that brought up Nico's vendetta against you, you brought it up again as something she declared "at the start of the game", and you're making it supporting evidence in your case. You can call that kettle whatever you want, but you are coming off as incredibly sore about Nico's play from other games, and you've become emotionally attached to the wagon because of that. For someone that told

me

to take a step back earlier, you're refusing to do the same thing here. Have you thought that perhaps Nico stuck around because she liked the flavor of the game more? Or maybe the mod? Or maybe one of many other little things? I can't profess to know her actual thought process, but I know enough about my role and Nico's actions surrounding the role to know that she just wasn't here.

At this point, I don't expect you to get out of your little tunnel. You're spiraling and emotional, and I'm sure if I didn't point out the problem with the activity tell and your thought process there, someone else would have. You're ignoring points other players are bringing up. You're essentially ignoring anything I say or twisting it to fit your perception of the game. I'm really not going to bother from now on, but I thought it worth a shot, so that maybe, just maybe, you could step back for just a second and live up to your user name.

You don't get to constantly use belittling language and also call my personal honesty into question and then pretend you're some innocent.

Try again.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Yep. The RC and Chara thoughts are independently obvtown imo, and I think the opinion of most of the game.

Perhaps thoughts on someone a bit more contentious would be in order.

@Tails: Real quick...I love Drixx, and he *does* sometimes get into these mind spaces where something that directly affected him is given more weight than it would if it were not related to him...but that's part of how people are period, and its mitigated by having another head. I agree with his overall assessment that there is a preponderance of weak evidence against your slot as town, and came to that conclusion prior to any mention of what happened in FakeGods game was made to me. Ignoring that particular piece of things, it still seems more likely than not that you are scum.

So please, stop attempting to attack the least significant(imo, at least) part of why we suspect you.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, the first part of the bit to tails should read "I love drixx, but I will admit blah blah.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah. So I guess that's what I meant by I can see why RR mechanically wants to vote you but it does look like you're trying so I'd rather lynch Flicker over you out of RR's two preferred lynches today. I think with flips coming and the potential mass claim tomorrow slots like Tails will be easier to figure out.

On a sidenote VLA is NAI right? I just find it odd that Flicker who hasn't really had much presence D2 decided to announce VLA which ends around deadline. I'm getting pretty frustrated with the low input slots tbh, if they are town they're making it a lot harder to PoE. I'm fine lynching any low input slot apart from Toogeloo today so we can move on and get some more clues. I'm still thinking there's scum in the softs/claims somewhere but there's not much I can figure out without a night of info.

I think VLA should be considered NAI. It might not be, but I find the idea of calling peoples real life obligations into question distasteful.

I dont see what tails is doing as trying to gsmesolve. I do see effort, but not to find out who scum is.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Already answered Tails.

Also, still voting you because BG+the clues seen doesn't make sense. *shrug*
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah. A case could be made for Simon as BG, but doc makes so much more sense.

Especially given that we know that a second protective was used last night, since Elsa cant be lighting rodded.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Go read the mods response to our assumption that she could be. He has a nonstandard view of how lightning rods function.

(Hint, asceric makes you immune to them)

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Tails: Doc, vig, joat, pgo, investigative (watcher, specifically) would have all been satisfactory.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Fair. Just saying that I had a list of reasonable roles that support the clues pointing to you as river.(which was the only nonscum reason for that post from nico)
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Hey Elsa. You're currently voting for a no lynch, effectively, and and no lynches mean the game swings towards scum, which means we have to lynch you out of paranoia sooner.

So you might not want to do that with 24 hours or less left

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Like, if Nico/Tails is not town, they gotta basically be a 3p Simon/River or something.

Please explain how you arrive at this conclusion. It seems to rely upon Chick being honest. But if it

does

rely on that, it also has a huge logical flaw.

Chick's supposed day one cop was TPFKAP and the clue was not in any way related to the actual character that TPFKAP was... except that A50 decided to make Dobson aware that the HoB teams exist and aligned him with them. In terms of the show/movie ... there's no connection between Dobson and HoB.

So if the

first

clue didn't show the actual character ... why do you assume the second does?

~D

Lot to unpack here - in order;

I arrive at the core conclusion of Chick being honest for the reasons I already said - please describe to me, in presumed multiple kills multiball, his scum strategy behind claiming what he did. I'll wait.

It is quite possible the clues show faction - in which case showing HoB and showing Serenity crew is a very functional clue that is internally self consistent.
I agree that within the show/movie Dobson and HoB aren't connected - since the flip shows that in this game they are connected this is a meaningless note with no connection to what I'm saying (other than as a valid rebuttal to Cheeky deciding River couldn't be 3p)

I do not assume this. that said, I *do* assume that it is more likely that clues showing nothing but Serenity crew is more likely to suggest a town aligned target - which I'll agree is different from your theory that showing Serenity crew apparently means that's who scum are hunting ergo scum role PM. Ockhams feels very much on my side here, and at the very least if you can make the leap you did I am curious why you're so freaked out by my leap?

The claim is meh for not having targeting listed initially.
So now it's crappy claim and crappy 2 thing vs. Cop claim video interpretation.
I'll do this and suggest a bodyguard should be living on the Daycop;

VOTE: Aristophanes

I didn't understand what leap you were making. Occam's Razor is equally in place for both assumptions. Both are single step and neither requires any special privilege. It falls into "what did A50 decide was the link when designing the setup?" territory, and we simply lack the relevant information to move any closer to answering that.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, except mine is far more likely.
Scum images = scum
Town images = town.

Yours is less likely
Scum images = scum
Town images = scum

You see those as identically likely?

Thor is scum here. This is a huge misrepresentation of what we’re saying. There are several pieces of weak evidence. Since Chickadee claimed flavor cop, then it cannot be as simple as what he’s suggesting, and town!Thor would totally not make that mistake. It’s just a regular cop in that case. Bad logic, low (but opportunistic) level of posting and outrageous misrepresentation. This is Thor as scum.

Consider the implications and just how much opposition there was to lynching the only slot with a case against it.

S/he who has eyes to see...

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Seriously though.

Flavor cop.

Pictures/video of “good” = town and “bad” = scum ... and anyone actually thinks town!Thor speed that?

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Spewed*

Autocorrect sucks

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

@Elsa:
1) Things are only where they are because Aristo has jokingly voted for himself. I'm not moving my vote. He swaps his vote over to the other wagon(as he should, if he has any interest in his survival, and we're one swap from tied wagons, and thus more likely to achieve the lynch that's more likely to hit scum.
2)Nothing that I'm saying about you is ever meant for you. I don't care about you. You're an inconvenience that must be removed if you don't enable us to win quickly. My posts are intended to make sure everyone remembers that you must die shortly after we start losing town.

3) Another friendly reminder that vigs should shoot Elsa,

ESPECIALLY now that we have evidence that another doctor exists, and there's a claimed protective you're planning on keeping alive for some reason, even though their claim doesn't make sense with the information we have.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

(Oh, and mala. Shoot mala too).

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Again with trying to make the vigi waste any shots on me instead of actual scum. If you dont want me to respond to your slot, don't post anything and I'll never respond to you. This game doesn't let you just ignore a player because you don't want to interact with them, which clearly your trying to do.

I recommend the Vigilante instead kill Cerb for even more horrible fear mongering and general PoE which would make him likely scum. Sorry to Drixx, but Cerb has been less townie since day 1.

Thor and Cheeky town. Tails town for now. Mala also a 3p that'll probably be hung later if we dont accidentally hang her target.

Here is the value a vig should place on shots:

Scum that reduces kpn>scum that doesn't reduce kpn>guaranteed not town>possible shot on town slot.

Given that we don't have certain objects for the first 2, they should be defaulting to the third.

Also, no town is going to shoot us. We are the third most obvtown slot in this game, and that's only if you assume Jingle+Gamma are masons and not scum partners(which Jingles posting makes likely). We do expect to die tonight however, just not at the hands of town.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I don't buy the BG claim
Jingle is right that it resolves itself though

No.

No it does not.

You can act like it does, but it will never resolve itself. It resolving itself is dependent upon Tails being competent at using it, if he has it. It turns into a BoP test in 3 days. I mean, i don't even buy that Chickadee is town, and that's the person people are suggesting Tails parks the protection on. Why? Given the conversation today, scum aren't going to be threatened by her results because we don't even have the information needed to decide if it's useless or not, because we're letting Tails live, and this is the strongest the results will likely be because the slot fucking crumbed shit that gives us cause to look at it more one way than another. I expect all other results will be nearly useless, or easily manipulated to argue either side.

Anyways, my point is there's absolutely no reason to think that tails will "resolve itself", and the simple fact that tails claim exists means scum now know that Elsa is just going to protect them instead of protecting slots that might actually be shot at.

So hey, guess what? When we don't know the KPN, and the slot claiming BG is being protected by a claimed doctor all the time, THEIR CLAIM DOES NOT RESOLVE ITSELF PRIOR TO ENDGAME.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@RR - Resolves itself means you policy lynch it if it doesn't get killed.

And why would Elsa protect a BG? To fuck with us? I hope than no town doc would ever protect a BG.


Pedit - hmm this changes wrt Tora claiming he knew what you were crumbing VOTE: Nancy drew

Yes, Bujaber, and I'm telling you that's not actually a good test in this case. The game is expected to have multiple kills. There's absolutely no reason why Tails will be shot at, and there is another protective with intent declared to camp on them. That means they're not going to die. That means we're going to have to policy lynch them, by your reasoning.

Which means you should just fucking lynch them now.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also lol I'm still selfvoting and didn't even get a side glance for it.
UNVOTE:
I may still do this tho. A lynch is needed and I will happily eat it.

I have 3 big scumreads atm:
Tails: honestly this one is more me sheeping the thread and less actual scumread. BG should indeed sort itself out and if it doesn't by D4 it should not be allowed to live on claim alone. Look at play again at that point!

Jingle: they have an unhealthy relationship with role PMs and its really unnerving. They keep trying to pull info about flavour, wording, length, etc from people (mostly Tails) and it's either fishing for another traitor, a certain role they need to find as lyncher, or maybe HoB looking for confirmation on River's whereabouts. I dont know. It is close to the point that I've seen mods step in and say its too close to quoting a PM for their liking and I see no reason they should walk this line, nor why it keeps coming up!

RR: they sound off. A little too aggressive and threatening in their posts. Like this one

Hey Elsa. You're currently voting for a no lynch, effectively, and and no lynches mean the game swings towards scum, which means we have to lynch you out of paranoia sooner.

So you might not want to do that with 24 hours or less left

-Cerb

It is threatening instead of persuading and thats really just yuck!

I would like a little more conversation around these before I die.

Jingle is a claimed mason. Are you also scumreading Gamma? The two must go together.
US: we started the role pm stuff, and there was good reason for it. Don't misattribute that to Jingle, who is just continuing what we started. With regards to my aggression and being threatening...please iso us and Elsa together. It's an attitude I have *solely* for that slot ever since they claimed neutral doc and started using their claim of neutrality as an excuse for why they couldn't possibly see the game from a townie perspective.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@RR - Resolves itself means you policy lynch it if it doesn't get killed.

And why would Elsa protect a BG? To fuck with us? I hope than no town doc would ever protect a BG.


Pedit - hmm this changes wrt Tora claiming he knew what you were crumbing VOTE: Nancy drew

Bujaber, have you seven looked at Elsa's early play? Hint: bring up their ISO, and search for the word "neutral".

It's pretty fucking obvious.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Fuck I forgot about the mason claim.
GDI!
They read so badly though!

Also, noted. I've seen it a few times but didn't connect it to a single slot.
Also didn't realize you started all the PM stuff. Why did we do this?

You just made my job harder.

You're making your job harder by not voting for Tails, who you claim is one of your scum reads, while you're in the process of being lynched.

I originally asked because Drixx and I thought our role fit Book well, and Flicker also claimed their role fit Book well. In addition, our role PM had extra text in it that the sample role PM did not. Thus, we wanted to know if they had anything in their role PM that paralleled what we had(which specifically mentions the ship), to see if perhaps we were just wrong and we were another member of the crew. They were very resistant to the idea of saying anything about their role PM, too resistant(they doth protest too much and all that), and then scum flipped with an explicit warning that town does not have flavor, which explains flickers overblown(imo) reluctance to saying anything about what fluff may be in their role pm.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Bujaber, have you seven looked at Elsa's early play? Hint: bring up their ISO, and search for the word "neutral".

It's pretty fucking obvious.

-Cerb

Yeah, that Neutral is my favorite thing I want to play one day and I used Tora to get a free claim and use it for town's benefit. But now it's worn out it's purpose.

It wore out it's purpose immediately, and you should *still* be lynched because your entire reasoning used for making the claim is terrible(as in, unbelievable, and you've shifted from "hey, maybe they're actually just neutral and we can win with them" to "hey, they're lying scum and should fucking die". The claim came unprovoked, and you're NOT someone who would be getting shot early.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

K I'm at L-2 with a day left and intent to self hammer.
Imma be straight as fuck with you guys.

The reason I am okay dying is that I'm a Vengeful. I an one of the crew and I figure it was to be Jane or Mal. The former because he's likely to shoot from the hip when shot "I was aiming for his head!" from the first episode for example. Mal makes sense since he's ever bitter and vengeful after the war.
I originally thought Simon/River but less sure now.

If I flip Jane, Tails is unlikely BG but it should still be tested I guess.
If I am Mal, one less 3p out of the way! Mala would leave and the game continue. I have confirmed this with A50.

I basically am trying to figure out who to shoot to best forward the game now.

Are all your targets on your wagon?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@A50: IF there are multiple scum factions in this game, does the multiple death in a single phase protection apply to them collectively, or individually? That is, if each loses a single member, does that mean no further deaths could happen in either faction, or could they each lose *2* before the protection kicked in?

Depending on how many actual vig shots we have(which could be notably less) lynching the vengeful slot and having them blow up town, and not using any protectives, therefore making it so vig shots only kill non-town slots...isn't the worst idea. It does depend a lot on how many target kills we possess, and whether scum possess their own protective's. I think the prospect of false clears and the high likelihood(imo) of scum protectives makes that plan dubious at best, but I appreciate the place Jingle came from in coming up with it.

In short, don't lynch the vengeful claim, make scum shoot him if they don't want to gift town with a free kill at some point. Do lynch the questionable BG claim.

Thanks! <3

(also both wagons are currently L-2)

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@A50: IF there are multiple scum factions in this game, does the multiple death in a single phase protection apply to them collectively, or individually? That is, if each loses a single member, does that mean no further deaths could happen in either faction, or could they each lose *2* before the protection kicked in?

Depending on how many actual vig shots we have(which could be notably less) lynching the vengeful slot and having them blow up town, and not using any protectives, therefore making it so vig shots only kill non-town slots...isn't the worst idea. It does depend a lot on how many target kills we possess, and whether scum possess their own protective's. I think the prospect of false clears and the high likelihood(imo) of scum protectives makes that plan dubious at best, but I appreciate the place Jingle came from in coming up with it.

In short, don't lynch the vengeful claim, make scum shoot him if they don't want to gift town with a free kill at some point. Do lynch the questionable BG claim.

Thanks! <3

(also both wagons are currently L-2)

-Cerb

Forgot the bolding!

@Chickadee: We're men of conviction, and our logic is FAR from wonky. Every argument *against* our logic is at BEST focused on a singular point of our reasons for believing Tails is scum, and as a whole are weaker.

I think you're simply too attached to the idea that we'd be "wasting" your check by lynching them.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

This is terrible, and you should all feel terrible for deliberately lynching someone who you believe is town(because otherwise why would you believe their claim/expect them to use it to benefit town).

This is literally a deliberate mislynch, without certainty that it will have a mechanical payoff.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Like wtf is this thought process?

"Let's just get this mislynch to happen so that way they can go shoot someone else who I'm suspicious of, instead of actually getting that person lynched organically in the future and making scum shoot this one unless they want them to get them at a later point"

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

It's arguably the best move for town, no?
Guide my venge and lock tonight into a possible no-town-death scenario.

No, it's not.

Not at all.

Because if we were to mislynch elsewhere, we still lose only one at most tonight.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also I'm deliberately making short posts right now because Ari is at L-1 and people are stupid and will hammer them.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I mean. Outed venge utility is that scum must shoot them, or else they risk being eliminated in a 3p lylo lynch, instead of winning the game. I don't see the benefit of MAYBE making our vigs cops as worth throwing away a day, functionally.

Especially given that N1 was lightning rod night, and if anyone had limited shot vigness, they might have less. And that the possible town killing roles in this game don't need to be targeted...which means they *don't* get the benefit of this travesty.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

BuJaber
CheekyTeeky
Light Ethos
Chara

That's where I would probably put a bullet.

PEdit: If Ari is who I think he is, he has an opportunity to remove one anti town element from the game, and with a bit of intellectual and savvy gameplay, possibly shoot a scum in the process. There's also the possibility he's just plain scum too, but if he's basically useless power unless he's lynched, he should really have the final say in what or how he goes about using his power. Since he's already condoned his Lynch, it's safe to assume he wants this route as well.

Him condoning his lynch does not make it a good play. It's still a terrible play, just one supported by him, and the 8 of you who are anti-town enough to deliberately mislynch someone.

-Cerb

@A50: I...feel like that number of 3 should not have been given to us...

[Reasonably Rational]

I mean. Outed venge utility is that scum must shoot them, or else they risk being eliminated in a 3p lylo lynch, instead of winning the game. I don't see the benefit of MAYBE making our vigs cops as worth throwing away a day, functionally.

Especially given that N1 was lightning rod night, and if anyone had limited shot vigness, they might have less. And that the possible town killing roles in this game don't need to be targeted...which means they *don't* get the benefit of this travesty.

-Cerb

So you're saying keep me alive to get shot so other town won't be?

I get the feeling town is supposed to win this by scum crossshooting btw.

Yes, that's basically what I'm saying.

I also don't see why scum(groupscum, at least) wouldn't just holster their shots for numerous reasons, so it isn't like they're going to crosskill on a night when they know they can't kill town.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@A50: I...feel like that number of 3 should not have been given to us...

Nope. It's the number above the threshhold. If he'd said 4 it would have meant something.

Umm no.

He said 3 non town players.

With each faction considered separately.

That means there are, at most, 3 non-town factions that are not aligned with one another. It's small, but it is a thing. Unless I'm just misreading it.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

No, it means it's possible for 3 nontown players to die, assuming three nontown players exist.

This is a parsing problem.

3 can doesn't imply 4 can't.

Yes, I get that. The clarification by the mod that they intended to say 3 or more is what was necessary. This isn't a parsing problem, it's a precision problem. 3 or more is not the same as 3.

Why not?
Not getting rid of the competition still goes against their eventual win!

Actually, it's heavily implied/explicitly stated by the win condition that different scum factions can win together:

4-

The game ends when either all threats to town have been eliminated or all town members have been eliminated.

Yep. I wouldn't assume that some scum can't win together.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also, for the record: I think I'm done here for the night. Make your deliberate mislynch if you'd like. It's foolish to do so, but you're welcome to continue being foolish, and I don't believe there's any benefit to be found in continuing to try to talk people who are doing something dumb and are obstinate in their defense of doing it.

Have a good night everyone. I have no idea who the optimal shot is if Ari is lynched and is town. It depends on how many targeted shots town have. I do know that town *should* use all their targeted shots they can tonight if two town die in this phase, and that no protectives should be used by anyone.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

To elaborate: If town have 4 targeted shots or more to use tonight, then venging Jingle or Gamma is optimal, because doing so clears an additional slot. If all the shots got used without overlap, that's 5 conftown, and probably enough to just win the game with.

If town have 1 targeted shot, then venging elsewhere is better, because you're not trading one "conftown" for another.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

You're being dumb. All of you.

Do not protect ANYONE if we have two town flips today between the lynch and the venge.

ND: I doubt whatever you're enabling matters nearly as much as you think it does.

Same for chickadee. Also not a pr worth protecting.

Dunno why I'm even bothering though, you're all clearly happy having your heads up your asses based on today's lynch.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Lets let the protectives decide who to protect. The more we talk about it, the more scum have ideas about what we're all doing.

Yeah sorry. I’m just pissed that protectives even have to worry about me at all - which they didn’t before my claim. :/

Posts a "claim" that would earn a modkill from nearly all moderators ever, without any serious prompting in the prior few pages.

Complains about having claimed.

*sigh*

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, except mine is far more likely.
Scum images = scum
Town images = town.

Yours is less likely
Scum images = scum
Town images = scum

You see those as identically likely?

Thor is scum here. This is a huge misrepresentation of what we’re saying. There are several pieces of weak evidence. Since Chickadee claimed flavor cop, then it cannot be as simple as what he’s suggesting, and town!Thor would totally not make that mistake. It’s just a regular cop in that case. Bad logic, low (but opportunistic) level of posting and outrageous misrepresentation. This is Thor as scum.

Consider the implications and just how much opposition there was to lynching the only slot with a case against it.

S/he who has eyes to see...

~D

I'll just leave this here.

Thor being Reaver confirms some of the setup speculation we had and confirmation that he's scum like I thought means we have some checking on other things to do.

I think there's sufficient reasons to believe Chickadee is town and honest here, so good job whomever presumably saved her life. Given Thor's insistence on pushing the idea above, I feel even more confident that the clues she gets will be at right angles to what the person is.

@Chick - Obviously check whomever you want, but we could probably benefit from a check if you don't have a better idea.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

First off, high fives to Ari on that vengekill - great choice.

Next, Thor's role PM means he was an SK, right? Anybody want to claim his kill?

Finally, are we doing a mass claim today?

Thor was obviously scum to anyone who has played with him in even a couple games. I mean ... I called it with certainty and my standard for certainty is really high.

I'm not 100% convinced there would be only one reaver, but it definitely is an SK win con. At first it appeared unfair but I think the warning is meant to get him to realize that if all of us who are aligned with Serenity are killed, then he would lose because of the other scum and thus he should be motivated to try and find and kill them first.

I'm not sure a mass claim is a great idea with 3 flipped scum and only 1 flipped town. I mean ... I suppose it should be considered given how many people have vomited claims already but ...

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Yeah, except mine is far more likely.
Scum images = scum
Town images = town.

Yours is less likely
Scum images = scum
Town images = scum

You see those as identically likely?

Thor is scum here. This is a huge misrepresentation of what we’re saying. There are several pieces of weak evidence. Since Chickadee claimed flavor cop, then it cannot be as simple as what he’s suggesting, and town!Thor would totally not make that mistake. It’s just a regular cop in that case. Bad logic, low (but opportunistic) level of posting and outrageous misrepresentation. This is Thor as scum.

Consider the implications and just how much opposition there was to lynching the only slot with a case against it.

S/he who has eyes to see...

~D

I'll just leave this here.

Thor being Reaver confirms some of the setup speculation we had and confirmation that he's scum like I thought means we have some checking on other things to do.

I think there's sufficient reasons to believe Chickadee is town and honest here, so good job whomever presumably saved her life. Given Thor's insistence on pushing the idea above, I feel even more confident that the clues she gets will be at right angles to what the person is.

@Chick - Obviously check whomever you want, but we could probably benefit from a check if you don't have a better idea.

~D

Oooh hi.

Wanna be Reasonably Knight and show me some of that prior spec?

~~Castle

I'm on the way out and will be phone bound for like 10 hours. If nobody else has gone back and quoted out the spec that's in game, I'll try and do it within 24 hours. We have some more in our hydra conversations that we haven't brought into the game yet. You know how Cerb and I are with that though.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

yay!
sorry you had to die, Ari. i'm saluting you for that excellent kill.
and Thor's wincon was also difficult, damn.

if i'm remembering his wincon correctly, Thor had no way of winning with the HoB. so i'm not sure you're correct, Cerb. he'd need to eliminate them all, and possibly other factions (though the latter would need to be an assumption on Thor's part) to make sure he's the final anti-town force in the game.
unless i misunderstood your point?

It's a SK win con. Everyone has to die. It's a little harder than usual though because most SKs are not endgamed if all town die first (I think). That's how I read it. If he and the other scums had managed to kill all of us on Serenity, then he would have lost. He had incentive to scumhunt and kill scum.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

that more has to do with Thor's resistance to your interpretation of Chick's claim and what that might mean.

It wasn't that he disagreed with our conclusion that outed him. It was that the logic he put forth was really bad (if his assertion was true, Chickadee is an outright day cop and not a flavor cop, and that doesn't make sense) and just not at all close to his usual standards. There was more to it, but that was what turned me on to him and I don't lightly post into the game thread that I'm sure someone is scum.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

yes, i did understand that part. he couldn't scumside. it looks like none of his kills went through, though.
both HoBs and his are unaccounted for this time, and unless Elsa has a gun i'm doubting Toog used his lightning rod again.

If you think about it I believe you'll realize where the shots went. And which other claims just received a boost in credibility and where they probably were.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Single group scum and multiple SK-analogues was my first suggestion regarding how the flavor of this could all work with a bunch of kills and the unique way the end of the game is described.

Also Chara, homie....~D only comes from Drixx yo. <3

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Flicker is the best check imo, BUT that's because she and tails are the people who I'm most interested in lynching right now, and we already have a result on Tails!

A check on us is good too as Drixx said, but doesn't help us solve the game(and I'm basically certain we won't be mislynched, so all it would do is make other people less worried..but that has value).
-Cerb

pedit: I resisted it because I had/have my eyes on other people with more reason to think they're scum! ^^

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh.

Elsa Jay, target last night?
Tails, target last night?
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

For the record I only thought this after LE's flip, because I admit I was townreading thor pretty hard.

But menno was scum and you guys still wanted to waste our time with nonsense.

Tails is still suspect in my book.

Also why does chick have to be town RR? She could be honest and scum. It's a good scum PR to have in multiball.

Pedit - I say check flicker or nancy. I don't think I need to be checked, but apparently I'm not as obvtown as I thought I would be to everyone by now.

I mean look at all the crumbing and talking about Mala. What kind of scum motivation am I going for to locktown someone who had barely posted at the time?

I don't support any further speculation about anything until we get action claims from Tails and Elsa Jay.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

also in light of this let's never lynch Elsa. like Ari, Elsa can make the brave, noble sacrifice of suiciding to flip a scum. potentially.

pedit: ok, excellent.

Almost: so far, disappointed with the Overkill title. this game is severely lacking in blood. i'm going to assume this our fault and not yours.

Let's never lynch Elsa? Hider's do *nothing* to help flip scum. All she does is keep from getting shot herself. I don't understand your reasoning here, help me.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, and

VOTE: Tails

Everything we were talking about yesterday is still true. Interactions with Menno slot need to be examined, but given that there are non HoB scum options for the line of reasoning we used...even that couldn't exonerate them.

I'd also like to note that looking at Ari's flip, our position that town have further information in their role PM's after the redacted part, which is not shared in the sample pm, is still supported by all available evidence. In Ari's case, the words "a member of the Serenity crew." were present.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

if Elsa's really a hider, he's either getting shot to frame somebody or he's going to die on scum. we shouldn't need to use a lynch on him.
of course, if he's lying and we figure that out it's a different story.

I mean.

Elsa is basically coming up with a sequence of claims that are intended to keep people from shooting at them.

Neutral 1 shot BP Ascetic doc.
Town 1 shot ascetic BP doc when they thought the plan had a good chance of getting two town slots killed, so nobody would even bother trying to shoot them.
Town 1 shot ascetic bp used hider, so nobody has any reason to ever shoot at them because they won't be able to kill them that way.

There's basically no reason why they would ever hide behind someone who is likely to be shot at.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Day Cop Jingle or Gamma, clear two slots.

Not a day cop, flavor cop, so it won't clear the two slots.

This is a valid option though.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

if Elsa's really a hider, he's either getting shot to frame somebody or he's going to die on scum. we shouldn't need to use a lynch on him.
of course, if he's lying and we figure that out it's a different story.

I mean.

Elsa is basically coming up with a sequence of claims that are intended to keep people from shooting at them.

Neutral 1 shot BP Ascetic doc.
Town 1 shot ascetic BP doc when they thought the plan had a good chance of getting two town slots killed, so nobody would even bother trying to shoot them.
Town 1 shot ascetic bp used hider, so nobody has any reason to ever shoot at them because they won't be able to kill them that way.

There's basically no reason why they would ever hide behind someone who is likely to be shot at.

-Cerb

By the way I hadn't even realized that, but yeah. That's why they switched their claim from neutral to town. As one of the few neutrals, if two town flipped, their existing claim would have made them the obvious target for all scum to shoot at.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

There's basically no reason why they would ever hide behind someone who is likely to be shot at.

if Elsa's really town, essentially he can prove it by purposely hitting a scum slot. if not, he knows what happens.
that's how i feel about it.

We don't know what version of hider exists in this game.

If we want to go to the wiki, the most common version does not die when targeting scum. A weak hider is the original version, and does die when targeting scum. I'm almost certain that Elsa does not die when targeting scum if their claim is true, because otherwise they would have crumbed/announced their targets in advance and/or just claimed outright on D1. That's optimal town utility for them.

What they've been doing? Not how you play a weak hider. Could be how you play a regular hider, I guess...until it comes to now, when they've just exhausted all the utility in the role(which is to have people shoot at you)..oh, and except for the part where they claimed bp alongside claiming the ability that gives people a reason to shoot at them.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VOTE: Tails

RR any thoughts of scum on Ari wagon?

I've done zero analysis, I'll pull the VC's and look at how it formed...tomorrow night I think? Probably free then(at least, not going to the gf's after work, so more free) for at least a couple hours.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I protected Chickadee last night.

Also looked at VCs. Pretty sure RR is last HoB, but I think you guys need the visual evidence to understand why. One sec.

Nice scum claim. Someone killed Thor. Thor's kill is missing. Where did it go? The obvious place is where you claim to have been a BG, so why are you alive?

Spoiler: Some D2 VCs

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

NicoRobin (1):

Elsa Jay (2018),

McMenno (1):

CheekyTeeky (2024),

Not voting (14):

Thor665,

Toogeloo,

NicoRobin,

Chara,

Nancy Drew Shogunate,

Chickadee,

Flicker,

Jingle,

BuJaber,

McMenno,

Reasonably Rational,

Malakittens,

Gamma Emerald,

northsidegal,

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

NicoRobin (1):

Elsa Jay (2018),

McMenno (1):

CheekyTeeky (2024),

BuJaber (1):

Toogeloo (2049),

Not voting (13):

Thor665,

Jingle,

Chara,

Nancy Drew Shogunate,

Chickadee,

Flicker,

NicoRobin,

BuJaber,

McMenno,

Reasonably Rational,

Malakittens,

Gamma Emerald,

northsidegal,

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

McMenno (3):	CheekyTeeky (2024),	Elsa Jay (2079),	BuJaber (2082),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (2):	Thor665 (2092),	Flicker (2114),
BuJaber (1):	Toogeloo (2049),
Not voting (10):	Jingle,	NicoRobin,	Chara,	Nancy Drew Shogunate,	Chickadee,	McMenno,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

McMenno (3):	CheekyTeeky (2024),	Elsa Jay (2079),	BuJaber (2082),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (3):	Thor665 (2092),	Flicker (2114),	Toogeloo (2175),
Not voting (10):	Jingle,	NicoRobin,	Chara,	Chickadee,	McMenno,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2140),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Nancy Drew Shogunate (5):	Thor665 (2092),	Flicker (2114),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),	Elsa Jay (2199),
McMenno (2):	CheekyTeeky (2024),	BuJaber (2082),
Not voting (9):	Jingle,	NicoRobin,	Chara,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2140),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Nancy Drew Shogunate (6):	Thor665 (2092),	Flicker (2114),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),	Elsa Jay (2199),	CheekyTeeky (2221),
McMenno (1):	BuJaber (2082),
northsidegal (1):	Jingle (2223),
Not voting (8):	NicoRobin,	Chara,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2140),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Nancy Drew Shogunate (4):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),	Elsa Jay (2199),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2273),
northsidegal (1):	Jingle (2223),
Not voting (8):	NicoRobin,	Chara,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Flicker (2268),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Nancy Drew Shogunate (4):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),	Elsa Jay (2199),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2273),
Malakittens (2):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),
Reasonably Rational (1):	Jingle (2349),
Not voting (6):	NicoRobin,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Nancy Drew Shogunate (4):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),	Elsa Jay (2199),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2273),
Malakittens (2):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),
Not voting (7):	NicoRobin,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (4):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	Elsa Jay (2445),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (3):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),
McMenno (2):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),
Not voting (7):	NicoRobin,	Chickadee,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Gamma Emerald,	northsidegal,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (6):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	Elsa Jay (2445),	Gamma Emerald (2482),	Chickadee (2517),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (3):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),
McMenno (2):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),
Not voting (5):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	northsidegal,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (6):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	Elsa Jay (2445),	Gamma Emerald (2482),	Chickadee (2517),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (3):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2175),	McMenno (2197),
McMenno (2):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2272),
Not voting (5):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	northsidegal,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (7):	Chara (2395),	Flicker (2396),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	Gamma Emerald (2482),	Chickadee (2517),	McMenno (2535),	Toogeloo (2539),
McMenno (1):	BuJaber (2082),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Aristophanes (1):	CheekyTeeky (2555),
Not voting (6):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes,	Jingle (2402),	Elsa Jay (2547),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (5):	Chara (2395),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	Chickadee (2517),	McMenno (2535),	Toogeloo (2539),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2609),	Flicker (2613),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Not voting (7):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes,	Jingle (2402),	Elsa Jay (2547),	Gamma Emerald (2596),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Malakittens (4):	Chara (2395),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	McMenno (2535),	Toogeloo (2539),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2609),	Flicker (2613),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Not voting (8):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes,	Jingle (2402),	Elsa Jay (2547),	Gamma Emerald (2596),	Chickadee (2662),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	CheekyTeeky (2609),	Flicker (2613),
Malakittens (2):	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	McMenno (2535),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Gamma Emerald (1):	Chara (2710),
NicoRobin (1):	Toogeloo (2743),
Not voting (8):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes,	Jingle (2402),	Elsa Jay (2547),	Gamma Emerald (2596),	Chickadee (2662),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Toogeloo (4):	Aristophanes (2761),	Elsa Jay (2765),	CheekyTeeky (2779),	Chickadee (2780),
Malakittens (2):	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	McMenno (2535),
McMenno (2):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (2):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2774),
Gamma Emerald (1):	Chara (2710),
Not voting (5):	NicoRobin,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Jingle (2402),	Gamma Emerald (2596),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Toogeloo (5):	Aristophanes (2761),	Elsa Jay (2765),	CheekyTeeky (2779),	Chickadee (2780),	Gamma Emerald (2792),
Malakittens (2):	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2444),	McMenno (2535),
McMenno (2):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (2):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2774),
Gamma Emerald (1):	Chara (2710),
Not voting (4):	Tails,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Toogeloo (4):	Aristophanes (2761),	Elsa Jay (2765),	Chickadee (2780),	Gamma Emerald (2792),
McMenno (3):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2814),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (2):	Thor665 (2092),	Toogeloo (2774),
Malakittens (1):	McMenno (2535),
Gamma Emerald (1):	Chara (2710),
Tails (1):	CheekyTeeky (2829),
Not voting (4):	Tails,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

Toogeloo (4):	Aristophanes (2761),	Elsa Jay (2765),	Chickadee (2780),	Gamma Emerald (2792),
McMenno (4):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2814),	CheekyTeeky (2867),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Malakittens (1):	McMenno (2535),
Gamma Emerald (1):	Chara (2710),
Chickadee (1):	Toogeloo (2872),
Not voting (4):	Tails,	Reasonably Rational,	Malakittens,	Jingle (2402),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

votecount

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

McMenno (6):	BuJaber (2082),	Flicker (2613),	Nancy Drew Shogunate (2814),	CheekyTeeky (2867),	Chara (2905),	Jingle (2933),
Toogeloo (3):	Elsa Jay (2765),	Chickadee (2780),	Gamma Emerald (2792),
Nancy Drew Shogunate (1):	Thor665 (2092),
Chickadee (1):	Toogeloo (2872),
Aristophanes (1):	McMenno (2884),
Tails (1):	Reasonably Rational (2914),
Not voting (3):	Tails,	Malakittens,	Aristophanes (2912),

(expired on 2018-10-29 22:00:00) remain.

Those are all the D2 VCs up until after I replaced in, so halfway through the day. Wagons go Nancy>Mala>Toog>McMenno. I entered in around the time things were shifting off of Toog, stating an intention to sheep. It's only after I entered and caused a ruckus that RR places their first vote and starts hard pushing my wagon. This was also when McMenno became the dominant wagon. And I looked back into D1 VCs, and they weren't hard pushing the slot like they said they were. Instead, they were on Flicker.

Read our ISO and stop bullshitting. I'm going to seriously just remove filters and start talking to you like you deserve if you keep making shit up. I literally dived into the thread near the end of day 1 in order to drop the info that I was convinced that NicoRobin (your predecessor on the slot) was scum. You can whinge all you want about votes but this entire game knows us and trying to push the idea that we weren't scum reading your slot prior to your entry because a vote wasn't there is horse shit and scummy as fuck.

ESPECIALLY

because we already had this conversation yesterday.

Know who

else

I dove into the thread to post they were scum in case we got killed off? Thor. Know who else you can read in our hydra PT after the game I was on to from the moment they replaced in? LE.

You're more scummy from your entrance into today than all the small bits of evidence yesterday. Reading through all that bullshit made me slightly nauseated. That wasn't even close to good or plausible thought processes. Literally the only good play you made in all of that was to come after us instead of an easier target, and even that's a shit play because it's just OMGUS.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Oh, btw. Figured out Chickadee=River awhile ago.

I thought everyone had. It seemed pretty obvious that that's why she's getting visions instead of hard facts.

Unless of course she's scum, in which case she's got me fooled.

So, who’s been pushing Chick? If everyone has figured out that she’s River, then that’s the most likely place to find the remaining HoB.

On both LE/TPFKAP’s roleflips, they mention River and Simon. Now, unlike River, scum probably thought EJ was Simon, so maybe we find scum there. Probably Chick more than Elsa but it’s too bad we don’t have a vote history button to check all of the votes on either.

~Nancy

*raises hand*

Flavor cop made sense for HoB with a traitor, but obviously with Ethos' flip we know that's (PROBABLY, based on the language used it's highly unlikely either has any additional powers, but is possible) not possible.

Yes, Elsa, if telling the truth, could have been shot at, while hiding, and thus wasted other shots(speaking of which, if we do have town vigs(as I expect we do) and any of them are compulsive, and don't know where to shoot...shooting at elsa is probably a good call since the shots will whiff(and you'll catch them if they're lying scum!) <3(Yes, this is 1% tongue in cheek, to keep up my habit of telling people why they should shoot at Elsa)
Yes, there is definitely a full doctor(who can *probably* prevent more than one kill with their protection, given that we know at least two kills were potentially in play N1, and Toog did not die).
Yes, Tails claim has not resolved itself, like I told you it wouldn't; we have no way of verifying where they targeted, and bg aren't exactly a priority kill since you still get a kill off if they protected your target, and they can save your life as scum.

I actually think if a town slot shot Thor, that they should probably claim it, to clear up this speculation at the very least; however I also feel if a town slot shot thor and claims it, mass claim is probably in order at that point, and mass claim isn't a great idea with the current advantage town holds.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

i am very sick.
VOTE: Tails

Feel better Chara.

I'm also opposed to short days on principle, especially when we have players coming in who 1) I'm confident Drixx and I can accurately determine the alignment of(mostly Drixx), and 2) haven't read the game yet.

So, with that said, don't you dare let the Tails wagon dissolve, BUT also don't put it at L-1, and do not hammer without intent.

FYI, my siblings changed their flight so it will land 4 hours earlier, so I'll have free time *late* this evening, not right after work, hopefully.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

P.edit and Chick obviously.

This is why I don’t think we should rush this lynch, in case there could conceivably be both a doc and bg in this setup.

I’m torn between Chick’s inistence that Tails/Nico is either Simon/River and Nico’s weird possibly traitor-signaling type post.

However, Nico was MIA prior to Tails subbing in and therefore seems unlikely to be Simon, unless there’s another proective in the story that could explain a 2nd doc. Is there?

If Chick is River, then how does bg Tails explain Simon, because obviously a full doc had to have protected Toog on N1. So if Nico/Tails is Simon, then which character would be the doc?

Each HoB has a JK right? JK is used, LR attracts it, kills are stopped. Make sense?

Yeha, we're idiots. I mean, not idiots, but most importantly is the fact that a doctor is not guaranteed right now because of the existing scum JK.

@Toog: Please ask A50 how your role would interact with the flipped scum jailkeep.

A50: If you can, how would you resolve the interactions between a lightning rod and the jailkeep ability displayed in the HoB flip we have?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.

I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I meant I never said I was a town hider. I was just trying to do town a solid and draw the NK last night since I could hide. But since I hid on Thor I lost the BP.

And yeah, honestly I think HoB shot Thor and Thor shot me.

I've changed my mind. Can we just finish this Tails lynch so that way we can deal with whatever *this* is?

-Cerb

No. We’ve opened Pandora’s box and now I’m going to follow it to the inevitable conclusions.

By *this* Im' referring to EJ's motivations, NOT solving what happened last night. I'm okay with that, but I find what EJ is saying and their continued hints that they're not actually town etc etc to be distasteful, anti-town, and want them gone once I run out of people I'm sure are scum to lynch. ^^

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

For the record, we have no claim, even softed.

Also, my night is busier than planned, and direction is lacking. I'm not sure how I feel about the sleeping though.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

@Toog: Do you think that if scum, tails is anything but HoB? If not, what argument do you have for why we should aim to lynch any other scum group?

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Eh. TBH, I'm waiting to see if Tails has anything relevant to say.

GE definitely gets the final say here though, because I trust his reads more than my own.

This too. Even at 100% certainty, I want to hear individuals last words.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I want someone to give me a good reason Tails could be HoB. And please don't use us the phrase PoE.

The HoB don't show up in the movie.

The first video is a trailer for the movie.

One clue I got for Tails was specifically the MOVIE TRAILER.


You've all gone mad here.

I hereby declare that I shall die on the 2nd day of 2nd month in year 2022, so I'd get to be with Ace. <2

I don’t want to rush this lynch in case he is actually Simon - now that there’s no longer clear evidence of an actual doc in the game but I thing Toogeloo’s role could also could also possibly fit Simon.

~Nancy

Again, I got the movie trailer as a clue for Tails. HoB does not appear in the movie.

Again, :

Per the OP. I don't think anything from the comics should be considered likely inspiration for events/roles here, but it's possible.

That's entirely missing the point. The point isn't that they died in the comics. The point is that they were never even referenced in the movie.

The first of the two videos is about the movie. Entirely about the movie.

The characters you are saying make the most sense for the clue don't appear in the movie.

Therefore, said characters are unlikely to be referenced through specifically a clue centered around the movie.

I'm not disputing that the angle of "They're focused on Simon and River, therefore videos of Simon and River." makes sense. I'm arguing that including a video of the portion of the flavor for which the character is conspicuously absent is a shitty way to leave a clue about the character.

Your case is built on two pieces of evidence that I believe to be counterindicative. A result from Chick suggesting NOT HoB and a crumb from NR suggesting HoB.

I disagree with the conclusion that the absence of HoB from the film means the slot can't be HoB.

-Cerb

pedit: Look at Drixx using all the words to say what I was saying.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The complete stop in game play today seems like more than just a bit of burnout from the torrid pace previously. I am not quite sure what to make of it though, since nearly everyone has gone silent.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

The complete stop in game play today seems like more than just a bit of burnout from the torrid pace previously. I am not quite sure what to make of it though, since nearly everyone has gone silent.

~D

Pretend I joined your slack chat right now. What would you tell me and why?

(Yes I am aware this is impossible and illogical. I just wanna pick your brain.)

~~Math

The last thing we talked about in our slack chat was speculating about what happened to Thor's kill last night, and basically stopped speculating at KISS, he targeted someone who was protected by a doctor(which we thought was Elsa); we haven't discussed anything more!

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

The complete stop in game play today seems like more than just a bit of burnout from the torrid pace previously. I am not quite sure what to make of it though, since nearly everyone has gone silent.

~D

Pretend I joined your slack chat right now. What would you tell me and why?

(Yes I am aware this is impossible and illogical. I just wanna pick your brain.)

~~Math

The last thing we talked about in our slack chat was speculating about what happened to Thor's kill last night, and basically stopped speculating at KISS, he targeted someone who was protected by a doctor(which we thought was Elsa); we haven't discussed anything more!

-Cerb

Yep. The most obvious explanation for the missing kill(s) is the target being protected. There are some more logical steps to take but so little happened today we never got around to it.

Sadly the truth.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I think most of us are just ready for this flip and day to be over, so...

VOTE: Tails

This is L-1.

VOTE: Tails

This looks awful. If we aren't around tomorrow do spend some thought cycles on this please.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Umm ... haven't heard from Cerb but want to beat the thread lock. We have strong reasons to believe Chickadee's claim. We have weak reasons to believe it more likely that Chickadee is town than not.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I think most of us are just ready for this flip and day to be over, so...

VOTE: Tails

This is L-1.

VOTE: Tails

This looks awful. If we aren't around tomorrow do spend some thought cycles on this please.

~D

Just because I feel that A50 will show up any second (sorry for the machine gun posting). This goes no matter how Tails flips. Just because we expect Tails to flip scum doesn't exonerate Toog here for the quickhammer. Don't just assume "too scummy to be scum" and move on. The votes coming so close in a day with so little posting is also worth considering.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Simplified reads list
Town
Chara
Jingle
Gamma Emerald
CheekyTeeky
Chickadee

Scum range

Toogeloo
RightKnight
BuJaber
Flicker
Elsa Jay

Mostly believe 3p claim
Malakittens

*shrug* That's all I've got. No thoughts to flesh this out.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Nothing special, agree with the PoE of things so far.

Toogeloo is only barely in scum range. The LR thing is still highly unlikely to be scum, but paranoid.

Basically lynch EJ or Flicker tomorrow.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

You don't really get an opinion Malakitty.

@RR, Literally nothing of consequence has happened since Friday, and there is zero counter play to the Tails wagon. Shade much? You are one of my town reads, but it's getting a little old that you preface every EoD with, "if we die, look here."

Sorry you feel it's getting old. The fact that you feel the need to attack instead of think about why what you did is bad is revealing. Letting Tails sit at L-1 for awhile would have allowed Tails to drop in a dump, in the off chance that Tails is town. That's just the smallest and first reason to wait. The fact that the game has been so dead basically

screams

that we have something wrong, imo. Forcing people to check in and make some relevant post instead of letting them off the prod hook would

ALSO

have had value.

I could go on if you like ... but I suspect you're just going to fling more stupid bullshit at me instead of taking ownership of doing something foolish.

~D

P.S. - Our reads such as they are. We feel like it's too easy and something is off, but lack any good reasons for the adjustments.

[Reasonably Rational]

If a supermajority of our current town reads are in favor of a massclaim, we'll join in. It's my birthday and I probably won't have a lot of time to check back in, so I'll just say this:

Plan it out. Who claims in what order and why. There is a lot of EV in forcing the most suspect slots to claim

before

certain other slots claim. There was the beginnings of a decent plan proposed for this yesterday, IIRC.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Hmm. I'm pretty sure the utility of a mass claim is even lower than it was yesterday, given that we lynched scum and had no town die. If the argument of "Don't mass claim when town is winning this much" was valid yesterday, it's at least that valid today.

Also, the lack of kills at all combined with EJ claiming to have not acted removes the idea that no protectives exist, unless all individuals with shots chose to not use them, or Jaber LR'd again, which could be possible based on their claim, but still requires another protective in play.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

If this is happening, RK need to claim next. I don’t want them getting any more info to help that claim.

There is a surprisingly large number of red flags in the combined ISOs of RK slot.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I mean't n1. That night, both Thor and the HoB attacked, I assume. How Didn't he die n1?

LR effect forced the HoB Jailkeep to target him. Since Jailkeeping prevents all kills and not just one, there is no mystery here. (I'm assuming Jailkeeper is the normal version of the role since the HoB were only precluded from jailing each other and given no other modifications/restrictions).

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

So. Keeping my word although Cerb disagrees still I think.

The flavor we have after our redaction is actually threaded throughout the entirety of our role explanation: "This ship is your home and the crew is your family. In an effort to protect them, each night you may target one other player to see if they've spent the night in their chamber and/or have been visited by someone."

From this, we assumed Book was the most likely. Anyone who has seen the show will remember how Book repeatedly showed up at important moments because he was watching things carefully all the time. There were a couple other obvious characters that could fit the bill, but with less actual examples of them being constantly aware of what's going on. I mean ... Mal got hoodwinked by Saffron which is a ding in his "alertness" if ever there was one... and of course Inara was the one who found him. So I mean ... lots of possibilities with only whatever criteria A50 had in mind when he wrote the above, which is a thing we can't know.

We're a modified motion detector, in terms of what we actually do.

N1 - Flicker had both incoming and outgoing (apart from us)
N2 - Chickadee had only incoming (apart from us)
N3 - Flicker had none (apart from us)

The night 1 outgoing is the most interesting result here. Priest is a passive modifier. I can't think of any way a Lightning Rod would draw a passive modifier into becoming an outgoing action. QED, Flicker having an outgoing action on night one contradicts the claim, I believe.

I personally feel like Niska is the most likely character from the show to be scum and also have the inability to hammer. Niska never got his own hands dirty so the idea that he has to get someone else to handle the pain/torture/death/crime for him fits quite nicely. Niska would imply at least one other and possibly two others.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm a derp. Obviously we don't have results from Flicker N1. AND we even discussed this a few weeks ago when we first got the result. I assume everyone else will catch it.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

We should really be lunching EJ or RK. Mala is a distant third.

I'd also like to voice my suspicion that Jingle+Gamma are the 2 in another 2+1 scum team. Jingles' knowledge of what we were talking about with regards to flavor is worrisome, but explained by them having a role cop, and Mason claim isn't as risky for a scum team with an unknown traitor around.

Not sure I think this is likely, but it's a possibility that must be considered.

And if you're going to lynch a neutral claim, lynch the lying one.

VOTE: Elsa Jay

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

If scum kill me to take away my victory, I'm going to be very sad.

I really hope they do and I’m surprised they haven’t already

VOTE: Mala
Now that’s uncalled for

This is l-1 on a stupid lynch, before we've even had a day to consider the mass claim.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Jingle, can you confirm that you and GE are just masons, with no other abilities?
-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

EJ is absolutely a better lynch than RK here. :/

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

You're objectively the best lynch, especially for a town this far ahead. A known repeated liar who has never lied in a way that's actually beneficial to town, but only to keeping themselves alive, and whose death does not bring town closer to losing because this game ends when no town are left, not when scum control the lynch. We lose nothing by removing you if you're honest, and if you're not then you're scum. With RK if they're actually town, we lose usage of protectives that have been flawless so far this game. You both die before end game, but you should go first.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

You could just admit you just want to hang me because you Don't like me and dont bullshit about it being strategically sound.

EJ, I don't care about you. You mean nothing more to me than any other stranger does. I appreciate that your attempts to stay alive require that you try to make everyone else view this as some sort of vendetta, but that simply isn't the case. Have I wanted your slot dead throughout the game, for different reasons? Yes. Have any of those reasons been rooted in anything other than sound logic? No.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Also something to make sure everyone is aware of: a compulsive modifier on a town doctor does not make any sense at all. A compulsive modifier on a scum doctor, however, especially if not allowed to target their teammate with it...now that makes sense. Something to be wary of.

If no scum have been found, and the masons are still alive in two day phases, I believe one of them needs to be lynched to confirm the other.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Some thoughts:

If RK really is a town doc enabler, I have no idea how on earth they could be connected to River being tortured. That image comes from a video of River's torture and Simon rescuing River which is watched by The Operative, before The Operative kills the alliance chief doctor who was in charge of the "gifted" program which River was ensnared by. The only characters actually present in that scene are The Operative and the alliance big bad doctor.

If RK really is a town doc enabler, that's irrelevant now. Our doctor will die, then we will die. RK has no further value due to the mass claim. If; however, RK is

NOT

a town doc enabler, but instead flips as scum... then we are in a world where CT shifts to probscum.

Obviously the "compulsive" modifier is a concern as well. There's a small flavor argument to be made that Simon could be "compelled" to act as a doctor to the crew of Serenity (because that's what everyone is after the first couple episodes; all bound by mutual interest and all doing "jobs" together) in order to have his services be the "payment" for them to stay on board. A better reason to make a doctor compulsive would be if they are scum... especially if they can't heal their partner(s).


In all worlds ... the RK slot is problematic. The flavor cop, inasmuch as we can decipher it, seems to condemn them. They are probably the best lynch today.


Thoughts going forward:

Elsa Jay has to eat rope soon. Survivor will have no reason to throw in with town, and that's if we believe that EJ is actually a survivor. LAL is strong in this case.
CT depends some on how RK flips. If RK somehow does flip as a town doc enabler, which I doubt, then CT is probably a paranoia M/LYLO lynch.
Jingle and GE will have to be checked and possibly one of them flipped if the game continues another 2-3 days.


This feels pretty solved, but something is nagging at me. I'm going to be super busy the next 3 days and I doubt this day will persist that long so dumping my thoughts, such as they are. Given the way the mass claim went, and the outside possibility that RK might be telling the truth (again; seems doubtful at best) ... I thought it best to point at the places where scum could be hiding and trying to endgame.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

Lol. I like how you’re flipping out with the AtE but obviously didn’t understand my post.

Nice Cherry Picking too lol.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

I still think RK is the best choice here. That scan is pretty sketch, and if there is only one killing player/faction left, it'd probably be The Operative.

This. But Elsa Jay's posting today has been atrocious. The attacks are way over the top.

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

@RK:Mala only wins by getting Mal lynched; if he's nk'd, she loses. Therefore, having a Seraph Knight for Mal actually supports Malas claim because it makes it easier for Mala to achieve her goal.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

VOTE: RightKnight

[Reasonably Rational]

Mal {RR}
Kaylee {RK, Chara}
Wash {Jingle}
Zoe {GE}
Book {Flicker}
Simon {CT}
River {Chick, Toog}
Inara {Chara, Chick, Toog}


Buj- Buj

3rd Party-

EJ
Mala


The odd claims out are RK and Buj. Buj because he supposedly got confirmation from A50 that A50 wouldn't publically give that the crew was Serenity AND their allies and because the only person he could possibly be flavorwise is also the most doubled; RK because of the conflicting Chick result. Additionally, EJ is a minor suspect, due to the potential for groupscum equity in the neutral claim. Of the overlapping claims, Toog/Chick/Chara needs to be solved if RK flips town.

CT, Flicker and RR are functionally confed by claims because no one else makes sense as the character they are most likely to be. I'm open to rational arguments as to why people fit someplace other than where I've placed them.

Hence: Lynching RK->Buj->EJ almost certainly wins the game. If it doesn't, we have a flip in one of the 9 town identities that gives us a clue to go on where my spec is wrong.

Basically agree with the analysis. Your focus on getting potential 3p the win is almost certainly making you put ej at the end of that lynch order when they shouldn't be through.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

Sorry (not sorry) to the scum. I haven't seen a town so thoroughly on the ball in a long time.

~Drixx

[Reasonably Rational]

There's nothing much in ANY of the PTs, but I will hold for the next 48 hrs to see if anyone objects to the release of their PT.

*sad face*

~D

[Reasonably Rational]

RK(the operative I assume?)'s role PM?
-Cerb