Mini Normal 2040: Day 4

[Elsa Jay]

Alright, well if you want to case Not_Mafia based on ofhrz's interactions, I'm listening.

Well, that's literally why I tried to interract with Ofrhz in the first place. I CAN'T place any connection to anyone besides him doing some "why do you think this?" Post.

[DVa]

VOTE: tictac

DVa might be the dullest player of all time

....I feel like this is slightly towny for N_M tbh

pedit: He's nullscum, and I don't have any stronger scumreads, so yes, I'm fine with being on his wagon.

VOTE: Not Mafia

Honestly, DVa arguing 4 this is the only reason, I didn't replace out already.

If she does, I'm following.

I'd prefer A50 policy actually, but this has a wagon already.

Wat

You gave no indication of any frustration with NM's play before this

I feel like this is slightly towny for N_M tbh

How? The attack at DVa, or his tictac vote? O.o

The vote

We both read DVa's AtE on the previous page, and ended up with the conclusion that she's probably town because of it. So the timing of N_M moving his vote off of DVa and onto a different wagon is a reasonable thought process to have and is therefore towny imo

Clemency has the higher chance of being scum imo. I think she's dodging a lot and didn't go in depth. I also doubt his claim of being a bodyguard.
Not_Mafia would be second. I got a feeling for this but I won't say why now.

I'm actually not a fan of Clemency, but I also think it's stupid to lynch an un-CC'd protective claim today
Im soulreading N_M as town

Like, Carmen didn't give us much, and Tictac tiltreplaced out, but I still don't think Tictac tries to come at me out of the gate the way she did as scum.

If you're townreading tictac for drawing a weak associative including you that wasn't even pushed and was quickly dropped afterwards, that's weaksauce ngl

I'm still not sure I buy the tilt, considering tictac went from playing along with NM's RVS vote to someone who was frustrated enough with N_M's play to leave the game without any trajectory

One little thing is that ofhrz constantly switches between N_M, NM, and Not_mafia

She consistently argued for NM town, both giving a reason and "soulreading"

She never voted N_M

Is this how ofhrz treats her scumbuddy?

Did ofhrz open wolf this game?

[Elsa Jay]

At this point I'll wait for Sash to wake up. I'm biased considering now I can only see it as him, so my opinion is more tainted.

[DVa]

BEF can you explain your scumreads some more? I don’t see how Elsa’s or clemency’s reactions to your wagon were scummy

This has been fun but work calls

Elsa and Clem’s posts have been really town
I’m pretty sure BEF is scum flailing - I just finished playing with him as scumpartners and he likes to set up fake claims ahead of time and is pretty quick at coming up with hoaxes when he is caught

De facto intent but I’d like for everyone to check in first

Pedit: what the fuck

I don’t think elsa’s daycop cc was serious. I’m kind of wondering why she’s alive tho

I don’t think elsa’s daycop cc was serious. I’m kind of wondering why she’s alive tho

read the rest of her posts

VOTE: sasha

Explain this progression?

650 was pretty bad considering there was just someone who "claimed something improbable, got caught" and was town. Like, if scum knew that Elsa was fakeclaiming yesterday, they would also conceivably keep her alive as an easy mislynch, which was basically my thought here
Sasha then quoted something grossly out of context to try to make his point
There may also have been some unabashed sheeping involved in my vote on Sasha

trust me i'm having a complex internal dilemma on whether elsa underestimated the power of stupidity like me or whether he was stringing me along
i wanna at least see this wagon through

I didn't understand this. You were calling for BEF to be hammered before Elsa even cc'd as daycop. How was he stringing you along? Can you explain it to me like I'm a child

Spoiler:

yeah no this feels like some next level bs
especially after trying to make it so cryptic
if you really are gonna try and make such a strong claim, why dance around the subject and come off belligerent? and you just happen to be the perfect role to 100% be sure of someone day 1 right after getting wagoned?
someone claim intent

so you're trying to drive two lynches back to back right after getting wagoned up

if you really are a daycop and this is how you've decided to lay out your claim, this is a half-step from gamethrowing

the reason you're not hammered yet is the fact that half the players haven't seen your batshit spastic flailing yet

so the problem here of course is that ofhrz *was open wolfing*

there's no question

so the question isn't did ofhrz open wolf, it's *how does ofhrz open wolf, when she is open wolfing*

was she open wolfing with hard defenses of N_M
or with tinfoil theories about Elsa?

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: tictac

DVa might be the dullest player of all time

....I feel like this is slightly towny for N_M tbh

pedit: He's nullscum, and I don't have any stronger scumreads, so yes, I'm fine with being on his wagon.

VOTE: Not Mafia

Honestly, DVa arguing 4 this is the only reason, I didn't replace out already.

If she does, I'm following.

I'd prefer A50 policy actually, but this has a wagon already.

Wat

You gave no indication of any frustration with NM's play before this

I feel like this is slightly towny for N_M tbh

How? The attack at DVa, or his tictac vote? O.o

The vote

We both read DVa's AtE on the previous page, and ended up with the conclusion that she's probably town because of it. So the timing of N_M moving his vote off of DVa and onto a different wagon is a reasonable thought process to have and is therefore towny imo

Clemency has the higher chance of being scum imo. I think she's dodging a lot and didn't go in depth. I also doubt his claim of being a bodyguard.
Not_Mafia would be second. I got a feeling for this but I won't say why now.

I'm actually not a fan of Clemency, but I also think it's stupid to lynch an un-CC'd protective claim today
Im soulreading N_M as town

Like, Carmen didn't give us much, and Tictac tiltreplaced out, but I still don't think Tictac tries to come at me out of the gate the way she did as scum.

If you're townreading tictac for drawing a weak associative including you that wasn't even pushed and was quickly dropped afterwards, that's weaksauce ngl

I'm still not sure I buy the tilt, considering tictac went from playing along with NM's RVS vote to someone who was frustrated enough with N_M's play to leave the game without any trajectory

One little thing is that ofhrz constantly switches between N_M, NM, and Not_mafia

She consistently argued for NM town, both giving a reason and "soulreading"

She never voted N_M

Is this how ofhrz treats her scumbuddy?

Did ofhrz open wolf this game?

Whiteknighting

[Not_Mafia]

DVa's post over the last 24 hours have actually been good #notbrownosing #iswear

[DVa]

In either scenario
Town had a strong investigative (a gunsmith that knows there's no scum doctor or traitor), with one negative utility (one confirmable vig and one unconfirmable vig/basically gunsmith miller), and a weak protective
Scum had an informed goon, and considering the value of the town's informed status, it probably was some good information that might *have increased the desire for fakeclaims* -- but we don't know this, and it is plausible that Elsa simply did random bullshit he always does that happened to make him look really shady after ofhrz's flip + a50's flip

The risk that N_M wins as scum here after being a douche to me the entire game is really holding me back, but I am trying my very best to be objective.

but what do we got:
on the prospect of N_M scum
N_M open wolfed as he always does
N_M sometimes changed his reads, which he's capable of doing as scum
N_M didn't do some of the memey bullshit he does as town

but, on the prospect of N_M town
N_M actually cased someone which is kinda uncommon for him as scum
N_M changed his reads *more frequently* than he does as scum
N_M seems a bit more engaged than he usually does as scum in recent months

with the thought I am trying not to focus on in interests of winning the game
N_M basically shittunneled people for the entire game which makes it hard to feel like he deserves to win, but that doesn't mean *we deserve to lose if he is town*

VS
on the prospect of elsa scum,
ofhrz's interactions with Elsa feel a little bit more like S+S to me
Elsa never really questioned my assertion that the informed nature of the scum was that they knew town had a gunsmith, instead focusing on whether his crumb wouldn't have been a guilty to a gunsmith (maybe tmi slip?)
The assertion he didn't know cop was a guilty to gunsmith is still hard to buy, although plausible since he has never played with a gunsmith
His top priority in exiting RVS was creating a crumb that would have happened to be a response to our gunsmith investigative, which would match the strategy of scum with an informed role
Elsa hard pocketed A50 after Clem had revealed his role as a weak protective and A50 basically confirmed he was real investigative by announcing his guilty on ofhrz

but, on the prospect of Elsa as town
Elsa lynched Carmen through my threat of a vig shot (as implausible as it was at that point, it's pretty likely he didn't believe me)
Elsa seemed more protown some of the time, but also risked lynching Carmen without a claim just because A50 was pressuring him to
Elsa's interactions with ofhrz's seems a little bit outside his normal play as scum


This is what Elsa claimed after A50 basically revealed he was a gunsmith with a guilty on ofhrz:

What makes you think I didnt put my real claim in my fake claim, Almost?

yikes

going to give you both some time to respond to these two scenarios and any new accusations I've mentioned

[DVa]

Elsa lynched Carmen through my threat of a vig shot (as implausible as it was at that point, it's pretty likely he didn't believe me)

but maybe the quicklynch on Carmen was a reaction to A50's guilty on ofhrz?

fuck I'm seeing a lot of Elsa scum here

[Sashaddin]

Sashaddin was just weird to me because he's a newb. No offense, of course.

None taken, of course

[Sashaddin]

In either scenario
Town had a strong investigative (a gunsmith that knows there's no scum doctor or traitor), with one negative utility (one confirmable vig and one unconfirmable vig/basically gunsmith miller), and a weak protective
Scum had an informed goon, and considering the value of the town's informed status,

it probably was some good information that might *have increased the desire for fakeclaims*

-- but we don't know this, and it is plausible that Elsa simply did random bullshit he always does that happened to make him look really shady after ofhrz's flip + a50's flip

The risk that N_M wins as scum here after being a douche to me the entire game is really holding me back, but I am trying my very best to be objective.

but what do we got:
on the prospect of N_M scum
N_M open wolfed as he always does
N_M sometimes changed his reads, which he's capable of doing as scum
N_M didn't do some of the memey bullshit he does as town

but, on the prospect of N_M town
N_M actually cased someone which is kinda uncommon for him as scum
N_M changed his reads *more frequently* than he does as scum
N_M seems a bit more engaged than he usually does as scum in recent months

with the thought I am trying not to focus on in interests of winning the game
N_M basically shittunneled people for the entire game which makes it hard to feel like he deserves to win, but that doesn't mean *we deserve to lose if he is town*

VS
on the prospect of elsa scum,
ofhrz's interactions with Elsa feel a little bit more like S+S to me
Elsa never really questioned my assertion that the informed nature of the scum was that they knew town had a gunsmith, instead focusing on whether his crumb wouldn't have been a guilty to a gunsmith (maybe tmi slip?)

The assertion he didn't know cop was a guilty to gunsmith is still hard to buy, although plausible since he has never played with a gunsmith
His top priority in exiting RVS was creating a crumb that would have happened to be a response to our gunsmith investigative, which would match the strategy of scum with an informed role

Elsa hard pocketed A50 after Clem had revealed his role as a weak protective and A50 basically confirmed he was real investigative by announcing his guilty on ofhrz

but, on the prospect of Elsa as town
Elsa lynched Carmen through my threat of a vig shot (as implausible as it was at that point, it's pretty likely he didn't believe me)
Elsa seemed more protown some of the time, but also risked lynching Carmen without a claim just because A50 was pressuring him to
Elsa's interactions with ofhrz's seems a little bit outside his normal play as scum


This is what Elsa claimed after A50 basically revealed he was a gunsmith with a guilty on ofhrz:

What makes you think I didnt put my real claim in my fake claim, Almost?

yikes

going to give you both some time to respond to these two scenarios and any new accusations I've mentioned

I think the real story is in bold. You did a good job analyzing this.

Elsa leans scum a lot more than Not_Mafia to me right now. I'm not sure of either, but Elsa appears more and more scummy as we dig, while NM's style leaves my opinion unchanged.

UNVOTE: Elsa Jay
so I can sleep on it, in case.

[Sashaddin]

DVa's post over the last 24 hours have actually been good #notbrownosing #iswear

I agree.

[Elsa Jay]

Elsa lynched Carmen through my threat of a vig shot (as implausible as it was at that point, it's pretty likely he didn't believe me)

but maybe the quicklynch on Carmen was a reaction to A50's guilty on ofhrz?

fuck I'm seeing a lot of Elsa scum here

?

I didn't even pay attention or read the hypo claims because I waa gonna deal with them later, but the Clem claimed and I forgot all of them but mine. Do you remember which one Almost put his in?

[Not_Mafia]

Stop saying wolf, there are no wolves in this game

[Sashaddin]

Spoiler:

VOTE: Sashaddin

convince me this isn't the best wagon today

Ok... EJ claimed something improbable, got caught and is probably scum for this. Lynch all liars?

I don’t think elsa’s daycop cc was serious. I’m kind of wondering why she’s alive tho

Well fine. It's a complement because I gotta do this shit.

Mafia appear to be informed and know about Daycop because I'm the Daycop.

Checked Almost's slot and knew he was town, so when the replacement option came I made sure to get Almost because I trust his reads really well.

I don't know... Seemed pretty official to me.

read the rest of her posts

VOTE: sasha

So Elsa Jay's counter claim was just a big lie.
VOTE: Elsa Jay

If you couldn't tell after my last posts that my role claim was fake I really don't knlw what to tell ya. Will answer fully when not at work

Nah, we're not lynching Sasha. Elsa probably deserves to die for her play around the daycop counterclaim but I'm not actually convinced that she's scum.

Like, if you're town and someone fakeclaims a daycop guilty on you, that's not how you play it. That's probably the fucking worst possible way you

could

play it. BEF was getting lynched anyways - if you're town in that situation you wait for him to flip not daycop and then it's obvious that he was lying.

I think weirdly, so let me explain while I head out to eat.

I claimed "informed mafia" because I was in a game recently that had that brought up as a possibility, so I was seeing if Fish was informed and i was trying to get shot by the mafia to prove if they're informed.

I

knew

he was lying, but on the off chance I helped the real PR not get shot, I was trying to do the Elsa special and fuck everything up for them.

Didn't expect him to turn out to be the real damn TPR fake claiming or ANOTHER TPR to get shot.

I claimed "informed mafia" because I was in a game recently that had that brought up as a possibility, so I was seeing if Fish was informed and i was trying to get shot by the mafia to prove if they're informed.

How would you know that mafia are informed in your theoretical scenario? Are you saying you expected mafia to believe that

you

were informed that there was a

mafia

informed?

No, I wanted them to shoot me if they were informed about there being a Daycop. But then again, if they

were

informed they would know I was lying and not shoot me...

So I guess they could be informed since they didn't shoot me? I didnt think this through.

Pedit: the VC was too get shot or WIFOM the fuck out of the game obviously, but since Fish day 1 did it, I'm not trying my hand at that shit anymore.

All of this got me wondering... This is what I'm thinking about at this moment. That beginning of Day 2 holds the key I guess.

[Sashaddin]

For all those days since the beginning until NOW, I realized I had read post 667 wrong. This is what made me unsure. This one and the rest can connect together now.

VOTE: ELSA JAY

[Elsa Jay]

Guess it's up to Dva to decide then.

What's wrong with 667?

[DVa]

Well, Elsa, I don't know what to say here. I really like you as a person and as a player. I would like us to be friends after this game if possible, but ultimately I have to vote for the person I think is more suspicious. Is there any part of my case that feels unfair? Too tinfoily? Is there some knife that can cut a gordian knot here?

[DVa]

After 744, I think it's highly probable the scum team knew A50 was the real gunsmith. That was A50's hypoclaim post.

as a Gunsmith, ofrhz HAS a gun

This means that your cop claim *after* and in response to the hypoclaim ordering seems really suspect. You had already pocketed A50 so your insistence on Clem being on A50 also seemed like an endgame ploy. Like I know you two were friends but you didn't question his soft at all?

I don't know how to reconcile some of your choices from a town POV.

[DVa]

Decided to do a quick activity check, and research points to scum apathy as a possibility here.

yikes

everything after the hypoclaim is just yikes

I don't know how to not lynch you here Elsa

[Not_Mafia]

Hammer

[Elsa Jay]

^

Just compare me to that and follow your gut, I guess.

Still dont really understand how my VC hypoclaim is the weird thing setting you off when I didn't even know how gunsmith worked. So I hypoclaimed a role that I picked for shits and giggles for a role I just thought only found mafia and vigilantes. I really dont get that logic.

[DVa]

Yeah, I know. Not_mafia can be scum here! This isn't outside his range. And so mislynching you would really piss me off. Help me out here. Please understand this is not an obvious choice

[DVa]

I hypoclaimed a role that I picked for shits and giggles for a role I just thought only found mafia and vigilantes

also this is kinda a funny sentence

[Elsa Jay]

Well this is mostly what I got then. It's not much, since I'm never the best with explaining myself, so here.

this here is my last experience in a normal 10p. There were 3 TPR. I fucking sucked as one of them. My vague memory said only 3 non-VT townies would be in this game. When Clem claimed, I also stopped bullshitting with my VC claim since I thought all the TPR was revealed, and I wanted Almost alive because I trust his judgement with most things.

The fact he turned out to be a Gunsmith was just weird fate. I ignored your vigilante thing since I thought only 3 people could be TPR, but i guess we get up to 4 in a 10p. Also like I said earlier, I threw away any other hypo claims because they made no sense in my mind with my set rule set for 10p. I didn't think to go back and read those hypo claims when Almost claimed so I didnt even know he crumbed being gunsmith.

Do I fake claim as town more often then not? Probably more then I should, yes. My first game with Almost I claimed Vigilante to not get hung and draw the NK that night while gambitting on there not being a real vig in the semi-open setup. It's a bad habit but it's fun.

I've done exactly what i'd do here as scum and town. That's the honest truth. Any mistake I make as scum I'd make as town and vice versa. Any fuck ups and not remembering events is what I also do as either alignment. It's how I win my scum games. I play the same way and ignore my role PM.

All I can tell you is I'm trying my best for town, despite me naturally being leaned towards a scummy style. I don't want to lose town another game because I got myself mislynched.

[Not_Mafia]

So I hypoclaimed a role that I picked for shits and giggles for a role I just thought only found mafia and vigilantes.

Please treat this game with the seriousness it deserves