OK, so let me be more analytical than I had intended to be.
I will be working from scratch to make things simple for everyone. It's like building an application using open source code available to everyone, so it should be easy for everyone to comprehend and "edit" the theory.
This also means I won't be using my expectations/experience at the basic step, maybe later on, but not the core idea.
So, While Flag is an all Vanilla 9 v 3 setup, but requires the lynch of only 2 scums for the Town to win, so in theory it's 9 vs 2.5 (?)
Stack the Deck starts with 10 vs 3, but the Town is already with 2 TPRs and Scum are with a Traitor. If Scum recruit the Traitor that's a 3rd TPR for the Town to take. Any additional poowers the Scum take also give the Town an additional TPR.
So, 3 TPRs + 7 VTs vs 3 Goons.
Combining the 2, it's generally accepted that the Town will have 2-3 TPRs + 1 TPR for every Scum PR. It's not an exact/accurate formula because it also depends on how powerful the PRs are on each side, so it could be 2 v 1 or 3 v 0, but not say 2 v 3 or 4 v 0.
So, 3 Goons
in this game
vs 3 TPRs + 8 VTs is a bit of a stretch (I'm NOT taking anything we KNOW from the proceedings of the game into account yet). Scum should at least have 1 PR on their side.
Now, let's implement some knowledge: We had 2 flipped TPRs already.
I am claiming a TPR and so is EJ
. The underlined is not solid info to all players. Only >I< know my role for sure and only EJ knows his for sure, so theoretically either or both could be lying, but we do know we had
at least 2 TPRs at the start of the game
. Right?
Now let's assume all of the other living players are VTs (impossible proposition in practice, but a valid one in theory based on what
everybody knows
). This means one of myself/EJ is scum 99% of the time. If we are both PRs then one is very very likely scum, and if one of us is lying then they're likely scum. If either is lying and the rest of the players are VTs I can't see 3 TPRs vs 3 Goons because one was a Neapolitan which would have been VERY powerful, since they could hypothetically have given a hard clear each night. Combine that with a 50% for the "goon" who shoots Ruby to be poisoned and you know this would be one hell of a Town-sided setup, so even if one of myself/EJ is faking, the one NOT faking is also likely scum!!!
But wait! Some of you already know they are no VTs. This means Scum will have at least one other TPR other than the one between me and EJ.
Let me stop at this for now and see how you guys perceive what I'm saying and what your thoughts are. (Note that I have yet to implement my result on Carca in any way)
Another point (not related to the above) is the Ruby Red's flip. It says 50% Toxic Goo. The Original/Sample role doesn't include such a %age. This leads me to believe either Scum also have a Toxic Goo (thus the probability split) or Town was deemed to be too strong for the Scum to handle with a typical Toxic Goo (one that would poison who targets them 100% of the Town).
Please also discuss this proposition if you will.
