Micro 834 : Vanilla 8-Ball : Game Over
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VOTE: GAMMA EMERALD
NIGHT ZERO COP GUILTY- northsidegal
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what about all that talking we did in scumchat?- northsidegal
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irrelephant, i already did the "jokingly scumclaim in RVS" bit. you don't have to do it again.
why?In post 19, Irrelephant11 wrote:so should we vote no lynch just to see if scum is playing this weird- northsidegal
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if you're wrong then there's no downside, that's true (except perhaps wasted time which could lead to a lack of motivation, but that's kind of unquantifiable). what about if you're right? what's actuallygained? because it seems to me like if you were actually correct all that would be gained would be scum getting a free kill and then a barrel of WIFOM being opened. i guess i might just value the information of scum choosing "no-lynch" for the 8-ball less than you, but it really doesn't seemall thatrevealing, to me.
there's certainly an argument to be made that it might indicate that some of the players more likely to get lynched are actually mafia given that they weren't chosen, but i don't think i would ever consider that reliable enough to want to lynch solely based off of that (plus, there's the fact that the way TW is running it, scum could have picked themselves anyways if they wanted to or expected themselves to get lynched).
explain how picking no-lynch in any way reveals less information / is something scum would want to do?In post 22, Irrelephant11 wrote:because in my head you or jingle as scum would do that to reveal the least information
-shrug-which of my posts is a "joking scumclaim"? I want to laugh along but my posting so far is for srs
suggesting a no-lynch seemed so plainly like it could only be bad thing to me that i didn't really know how else to take it. i kind of expected that you were deliberately saying something scummy to look at reactions or something.- northsidegal
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why wouldn't you want this?In post 26, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also choosing "no lynch" is what I would do if, as scum, I didn't want the 8-ball to flip d1 for whatever reason- northsidegal
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i did it before, even when you were a mason...In post 49, Irrelephant11 wrote:I wonder if scum think I'm D1 miclynchable here- northsidegal
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easy!
oops, meant to post this in scumchat.- northsidegal
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in all seriousness though, i do see the argument that your thing about voting no-lynch to test if scum did it would be scum-indicative, and it's something i was (am still?) kind of thinking myself. there are a few possibilities, really. the least likely is that you're scum who actually picked no-lynch for the 8-ball and just wanted the kill. more likely in my mind would be you implicitly using argument that you'd pick no-lynch as scum to make yourself look townier when it wasn't the 8-ball, as well as making it look like you're actually solving something by "testing" to see if no-lynch is the 8-ball.
that combined with your justification being "we could get the info of who scum kill", "we'd be in odds" and "it could be player indicative", none of which i find particularly compelling (no offense), i'm kind inclined to say it's some kind of faked thought process, especially considering the speed with which it kind of got dropped. i think it was a mistake on my part to push back so hard against it initially.- northsidegal
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(everything there was @irrelephant)
what's more, could you explain a bit more why you're already townreading me? you seemed pretty set up to be wary of me after your comments at the end of TAZ mafia. was 23 enough for you to consider me town? (i'm not calling you right or wrong for doing this, just want to hear a bit more of your rationale)- northsidegal
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even further on logic that i find somewhat questionable (not in the shade-y kind of way, in the true sense of the word) is thisIn post 26, Irrelephant11 wrote:Also choosing "no lynch" is what I would do if, as scum, I didn't want the 8-ball to flip d1 for whatever reason
in the first place i don't see why scum would evernotwant the 8-ball to flip day one. i don't consider the NKA that town gains as a potential tool as outweighing the value of scum getting to silence a town voice and put themselves one step closer to winning. i'm speaking from my own perspective here, but i can't imagine why as scum i would ever not want the 8-ball to flip, so it would never even occur to me to think about who i'd pick if i didn't want it to happen. why did it occur to you?
in the second place, let's say that scum did for some reason not want to reveal the information of which townie they picked for the 8-ball: why wouldn't they pick themselves?- northsidegal
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for the record, i disagree with this pretty strongly and have historically actually had very decent success catching scum who have an awkward time being serious coming into the thread when rvs is already overIn post 154, pinturicchio wrote:Also, in case that the player who hasn't posted is scum, getting serious without them posting gives them some space to make effortless content when he/she arrives.
anyone can joke around in rvs green or red role pm and it's basically indistinguishable, when you start getting serious is when you can start noticing tells.- northsidegal
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anyways, that relatively non-game related tangent aside, i currently have jingle, gamma, and irrelephant as more likely town than not with the other have of the game being in somewhat of a poe.
despite my earlier misgivings about irrelephant's whole "no-lynch" thing i think there is a real chance that it did just come from town and i believe irrelephant's explanation that he was moreso thinking of interesting ways to play the setup than the intricacies of what scum would/wouldn't do. it's possibly i'm going against my better instincts here and giving up on scum, but i don't currently feel that way and if irrelephant truly is scum then i believe in my own ability to pick up on that later and reverse my read, should i still be alive.
in a vacuum (i.e. not considering associatives) my current guess for the scumteam would be {CJ, pintu}- northsidegal
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i don't like how frozen angel hasn't put down a vote yet but given her specific acknowledgement and plan regarding that, that probably nullifies and scum value that might have otherwise been thereIn post 152, Frozen Angel wrote:Alright gonna play some overwatch next time I catch up I'll make a vote. I'm just waiting to see people react to my posts and to have a little more to analyze first cause I have heavy doubts about my reads on few people
anyways, on another unrelated note, it occurs to me the anti-town nature of going too in-depth as to my reads.
VOTE: pintu- northsidegal
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why weren't you voting pintu before? what do you think about irrel?- northsidegal
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as a sidenote, given that mafia has full daytalk, this setup doesn't actuallyneednight phases: you could simply have it where the scumteam decides the next 8-ball while the current day is going on.
perhaps runs into issues considering a possible deadline scramble where they're unsure as to who gets lynched, but i imagine they could always have conditional instructions.- northsidegal
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i don't know about "best", but i just wanted to refute the idea that scum have an easier time coming into the thread when things have already gotten serious.In post 176, Gamma Emerald wrote:Do it’s not RVS or the serious stage that is best to analyze but the transitional period?- northsidegal
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why are you town? what about your play this game is your towngame as opposed to your scumgame? if you're going to say that you expect better from me, i can't just be wrong, i have to be going off of poor reasoning. after all, just like i said to JJH in 728, if someone played to what seemed like a theoretical scumgame even if they were town, it would still be reasonable to vote that person.In post 183, pinturicchio wrote:I expect more from you, NSG. You usually have good early reads, and you should know better. It's too early to vote you because of BoP, but continue pushing me and I'm telling my parents about you. Believe me, you don't want that. Spooky.
are you serious about voting me because of burden of proof? you seem to already be taking it that i'm town, so that seems kind of a hollow threat. why do you townread me already? you said earlier that you don't really have experience with reading me and questioned irrelephant's read on me, but later said that "[nsg] felt town from the beginning". when did you start townreading me?
why do you think frozen angel would be at terrible vote?- northsidegal
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have you considered the disingenuous nature of asking me why you're not town while also asserting that you have neither showed a towngame nor a scumgame? have you also considered the disingenuous nature of asserting that you have not shown your towngame and yet criticizing me for voting you?In post 201, pinturicchio wrote:1. Why am I NOT town? I think that's my point, I haven't had the opportunity to express myself, and an early push doesn't help me to town it up. I think of myself as a pretty obvious town when I get the chance to do my thing, so an early push is a good way to take me out and not give me that opportunity.
2. That being said, I think I haven't showed anything at all, either my towngame or my scumgame. That's my bad. But if I haven't shown anything, why do you assume that's my scumgame? You have seen me as scum: not showing effort is not a scumtell of mine.
when there's a player who i expect to have shown themselves to be town and they haven't done so yet, i tend to scumread that player. i don't think that's unreasonable – in fact, it just caught me scum from very early on in micro 833.
meh, i'm pretty sure you're lying to me. you say that you were townreading me "at the beginning", but you were questioning irrelephant about his townreading me and pretty much said that you didn't have a read on me there. is that when you mean by "the beginning"? or do you mean around 154 as "the beginning", because if so, i very much get the feeling that you're lying to me. after all, that "beginning" would also happen to be your very last post right before i voted you. are you telling me that in the span of roughly 30 posts you went from townreading me (after not having a read on me in the beginning) to realizing that your read was superficial? how did that happen? genuine question there.3. I am serious about the BoP; I'm not townreading you. I was at the begining, but it was a superficial read. I still can't sort you out easily, and I really don't want you to be scum 'cause I think you're better at this than me. That's where the BoP thing comes: maybe I expect more than you 'cause I have a good image of town!NSG, and I have evidence of you having great early reads. I'm not used to being pushed so early.
In the end, I would not push a wagon on you on D1. Not even a chance of doing that. Maybe I expected the same treat since I'm a good town player; maybe not at catching scum, but by being obv!town and relying on PoE.- northsidegal
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-shrug-
if you're town then it's not like my votes on you are stopping you from doing other things.
most people read me through activity and through my depth of thought.- northsidegal
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where's the contradiction hereIn post 205, pinturicchio wrote:That's my problem: I've seen you more active here than in the other games we've played together, but your depth of thought is good. So what the fuck!
-shrug-Yeah, but vivi the jumpy guy and Jingle his white knight are on me now too, and I'm one vote away of being L-1, and the deadline is close. So I was hoping to get a better wagon than me right now.
when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. i don't really want to give advice to my scumread to stop getting scumread, but if you're town then i think you should try a different strategy.- northsidegal
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do you expect early wagons to always go through?
if that's your viewpoint, whodoyou think the 8-ball is?- northsidegal
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i don't think it's correct to view you as townier simply because you're being more active than other people and i would be surprised if you held that same consistent viewpoint in how you scumhunted as town.- northsidegal
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this seems pretty exactly like that, yeahIn post 260, pinturicchio wrote:if you still think I'm the scummiest player after all I have done at this point, you're as wrong as it gets, since there are at least 4 players who are active lurking.- northsidegal
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you shouldn'tIn post 271, Irrelephant11 wrote:alright alright, I'll let you AtE me for a bit- northsidegal
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please place your vote back on pintu, irrel.- northsidegal
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didn't think it particularly necessary to get pintu lynched by the time that i would have done so anyways
don't particularly feel like pintu is the 8-ball here so i guess i'm not all that concerned of death – although, if i'm wrong then obviously i pay a steep price. to elaborate on that, obviously if i think pintu is scum then it's unlikely that scum would pick one of themselves D1 to be the 8-ball, but even beyond that, if pintuweretown, if he were the 8-ball i feel like he would already be hammered. in my mind, the only situations in which he's the 8-ball and he isn't hammered already is exactly either:
1) the entire scumteam is already on his wagon
2) frozen angel is scum with someone else already on his wagon- northsidegal
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just frustrated about my mistakeIn post 332, Irrelephant11 wrote:Nsg where you at- northsidegal
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didn't give it any thought and it would depend on who my scumbuddy is. assuming i'm just scum alone and everyone else is town then maybe CJ- northsidegal
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pretty idiotic case considering sitewide activity. it's not like i've been around and have been providing weak reasoning – i literally just haven't been around.In post 405, Irrelephant11 wrote:The longer version of the scumcase is “scum!nsg rapidly loses the ability to maintain deep thought, and her activity drops off a cliff pretty quickly.” And I also think her “I’m just angry with myself” reason to not engage is BS
also, it's not a "resaon to not engage". it's just how i felt.- northsidegal
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process of elimination combined with thinking that, if i were to be wrong on any given scumread, FA would be the least likely to be the 8-ball- northsidegal
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i don't think you, irrelephant or saudade are likely to be scum. (though, if i'm wrong i'm wrong on you or irrelephant first, and being wrong on one of you is likely a game losing read)
that leaves gamma, ceejay and FA. of the three, i feel like FA is the best vote- northsidegal
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@mod, do you think there's any chance we could get a deadline extension?- northsidegal
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although truthfully i don't think gamma is likely to be scum either (although my reasoning is pretty weak for him being town, i guess)
if he is scum i imagine that he's scum with a slot that wasn't around much in pre-game, which would mainly be frozen angel, which again points to lynching her today- northsidegal
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In post 400, Jingle wrote:Can you scumcase NSG?i mean this is the kind of thing that really makes me lose confidence in a townread and wonder if all of my initial thinking when it came to irrelephant was actually on the mark
but i suppose that's hopefully something for another time (well, really it's hopefully just paranoia that never becomes reality, but hope only goes so far)- northsidegal
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and also it's just bad practice in my opinion to place too much weight into interactions with yourself when reading someone. irrelephant doesn't haveall that muchexperience with me and was just a part of pretty much the only scumgame i've ever endgamed in, so in some sense it's reasonable (although considering the coalition as well i feel like he should know better and that "longer version" of the scumcase is preeetty weak)- northsidegal
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ducky can we please have an extension maybe- northsidegal
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um
so is the day still going to end with two people being replaced- northsidegal
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UNVOTE:
penguin if you're town i would appreciate you showing it as soon as possible- northsidegal
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i think there's a kind of simple difference between his towngame and scumgame and i think this game he played to his scumgameIn post 454, Suka wrote:NSG, why'd you townread Saudade earlier?
don't really expect it to be convincing to anyone and i'm fully prepared to just look foolish if i'm wrong but it feels vaguely alright to me- northsidegal
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and by lovely i mean "i really don't think gamma is scum"- northsidegal
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although i suppose the blame is on me for absenteeism- northsidegal
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actually the more i think about it the more i realize how possible it is that gamma was the 8-ball so i'm jsut gonna start talking fast
i think ceejay was probably the 8-ball day one and i think irrelephant is probably scum, haven't had time to review the FA/irrel conversations day 1 for partner indicativeness but i can easily see him as aligned with penguin (whom i don't yet townread which i am taking to be +scum indicative)- northsidegal
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This is an official (tm) prod on PenguinPower, you have 24 hours to obvtown- northsidegal
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i don't like how you're just focusing on the people talking about you, penguin- northsidegal
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well, it was entirely a lie (i don't hold that opinion at all), i just wanted to see how you'd react
i'm still leaning towards you being scum- northsidegal
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before i literally just right now looked through his iso i probably would've told you null
i actually think her iso looks pretty strongly town and i'm prepared to look foolish saying that if she turns out to be scum- northsidegal
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no, on an individual level i would still say that i scumread irrelephant the most and i think that the highly targeted focus on irrel that frozen angel had in her posting could easily be seen as partner-indicative- northsidegal
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i do think that if i'm wrong about anything it would be that the actual scumteam would be {Jingle, Irrel} rather than {Penguin, Irrel}
which, now that i think about it,wouldpoint towards lynching irrelephant today over you (perhaps especially with 8-ball considerations). i think my primary issue with doing that is that i don't know how much i actually have to support a Jingle/Irrel team other than paranoia over myself being wrong for the entire game and my reads being backwards. maybe also the quickness with which jingle dropped his early irrel push – that's something to look into.- northsidegal
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elaborate?In post 552, PenguinPower wrote:Probably would have strongly pushed the elephant if I was scum, but I can see your pov.- northsidegal
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it's unlikely that that will convince me to change my mind on you, just to let you know. otherwise, sure.In post 593, Irrelephant11 wrote:Nsg please real-time with me his gameday- northsidegal
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would you expect my day one and day three reads to be the same? we've already had two lynches and thus two days worth of time for me to re-evaluate.- northsidegal
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i am hard shifting my penguinpower read to town
will try to explain more things soon - northsidegal
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