mini 2048: more songs (game ougre)

[Wagonomics]

VOTE: LolWagons

This is our IPO. Invest in this wagon while the price is low and see its VALUE skyrocket over time!

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS

Doughboy
Nikk
LolWagons
Trivium
Wagonomics
Egix96
profii
Sashaddin
Robert2424
xwing
TheGoldenParadox
Flubbernugget
Lapsa

V

A

L

U

E

100

150

125

60

125

80

175

50

75

125

75

100

75

Boy charlie we sure are seeing a lot of VALUE from some unexpected markets

but we still recommend a healthy investment in a venture that has steady, predictable growth

that's right charlie you don't want to buy in to a BUBBLE wagon that will just bust

you want your WAGONCOIN(TM) to have STEADY PROFITABILITY INCREASES

Although the price might be lower on DEPRECIATING WAGONS don't buy into them yet, they can still go lower!

You want to get onto a growing wagon while the upswing is still coming on!

INVEST TODAY

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS	V A L U E
DoughCoin	100
NikkCoin	140
LolCoin	125
TriviumCoin	70
WagonCoin	110
EgixCoin	90
ProfiiCoin	140
SashaCoin	70
RobCoin	75
XCoin	115
GoldCoin	75
FlubbCoin	75
LapsaCoin	75

LolCoin has depreciated in value somewhat, although it might bounce back. Still, seems riskier than we hoped so we're going to re-invest.
WagonCoin has depreciated in light of its announcement it will be taking a conference call with shareholders.
ProfiiCoin has depreciated somewhat; risk of bubble there
XCoin still has some value but feel like it has been over-invested in so far
FlubbCoin has depreciated somewhat
BUY VOTE: NikkCoin

[Wagonomics]

As the representative of WagonCoin, it is always my pleasure to take time to talk with our valuable investors and prospective investors.

Let the conference call begin!

I am interested if the following players are interested in pushing the Trivium wagon through to a lynch:

5.Wagonomics

We are not currently excited about investing in that property, although we have not yet fully invested into market research into its prospects. So far, though, it seems like a risky investment.

1. Why are you giving yourself such a high value?

2. Profii only has a short ISO yet the highest rating. Are you reading from meta or is it something I missed?

3. I kinda like LolWagons ISO, why a rating so high?

As a meme alt account, we are aware our value is higher than other IPOs.

We have previously been left holding the bag on ProfiiCoin. In fact, on our main account, we have never NOT been left holding the bag on Profii. At this point, we recognize our market research for this particular player yields poor results.

LolCoin marketing early game left us feeling like it had some strong prospects, and while more recent posting has lowered its value, we're still not sure it is a totally bad investment.

@wagonomics: nice flavor, i like it!! though im confused in what you're actually trying to convey..would you mind giving a non-flavor text for this? what do the numbers indicate?

The goal is to invest in a wagon that will have the highest value at the end of the day. Investing in a wagon that is currently rated low means that there may be greater potential reward if the slot flips scum, however. So the question is, as always, do you invest in a Coin that will increase in value at a steady, predictable rate, or gamble on a wagon that may depreciate?

I have to ask though, Wagon, whats up with the coin thing? I mean its very creative, don't get me wrong, I'm just wondering about it.

The goal is to invest on a wagon early that ultimately ends up flipping scum, which in this game we believe would result in a final value of ~400.

[Wagonomics]

xwing, is TGP the best possible investment right now?

[Wagonomics]

WAGONS	V A L U E
DoughCoin	105
NikkCoin	120
LolCoin	115
TriviumCoin	100
WagonCoin	115
EgixCoin	100
ProfiiCoin	100
SashaCoin	100
RobCoin	60
XCoin	90
GoldCoin	110
FlubbCoin	65
LapsaCoin	115

I've been trying to do some additional market research. In doing so I've somewhat re-evaluated some of the listings.
Doughcoin I feel like is starting to increase in value mostly because I haven't seen certain things I associate with a low value Dough yet, although still very close to null, but not a significant change.

While NikkCoin still seems like it has some potential value, I think I was overvaluing it in my last update, so I have somewhat correct it here. Nonetheless I feel like that investment is lacking other investors so I might reallocate.

Lolcoin has depreciated somewhat although still has value.

I feel like my own slot has been a bit distracted so I probably look a bit more valuable given my lack of impact.

I've defaulted EgixCoin back to default value. While I am not really seeing strong signs of value in EgixCoin, and indeed liked some of that representative's posts, I feel like EgixCoin is capable of deeper analysis and so I am slightly concerned. Perhaps it is simply a case of the day 1s though.

ProfiiCoin I've defaulted to null. I liked some of his posts and this has moved him away from my default position of scumreading him.

SashaCoin is always a hard read. I'm hoping my new reallocation will allow me to further evaluate this property.

Given how much my other reads have been shifting, I feel good decreasing the value of RobCoin somewhat. I'm not sure the representative has shown the property to be particularly low value, but I think there's enough value elsewhere this is unlikely to be a jackpot investment.

XCoin is a hard property to analyze as well, but I am starting to think it might actually not increase in value over time. Still, not committed to a low value rating here.

GoldCoin is very much on people's minds right now. I think the investment has decent potential. If the investment firm decides that they would like to test the market value of this wagon in a permanent manner, I might be willing to "compromise" here. I guess I should ask whether the firm is serious enough in their investments on this property that they would like a "claim." I haven't seen anyone talking about that, and yet there seems to be significant investments in this property. Not sure what to make of this.

Continuing to decrease the value of FlubbCoin. I have little hope it turns into a jackpot.

My current interest is in LapsaCoin, and this is where I am re-allocating for now. While NikkCoin might have slightly more value, LapsaCoin seems to have more investors, and my vote on Nikk has been "vanity" for too long at this point. There is something I noticed about LapsaCoin's representative. In reviewing her marketing in a previous game, I noticed that she very rarely unvotes. Here, she has unvoted many times. I am not totally sure this makes her a high value investment, but I am curious whether her strategy for early game has changed for reasons I cannot anticipate.

BUY VOTE: LapsaCoin

@xwing, I get the sense you thought I was trying to recommend an alternative to GoldCoin. This is actually not the case; I feel like GoldCoin is a decent investment, although not the one I am most excited for at the moment. However, as I started to feel like XCoin's value might be dropping, I was hoping to understand how serious you were about your investment in GoldCoin, given the other investors on that property, and whether you were genuinely interested in seeing whether that property will become a jackpot.

[Wagonomics]

Ebwop -- my apologies for misgendering the representative from LapsaCoin

[Wagonomics]

It’s last post was about 85% flavor filler.

1 - Unfortunately my recent round of market research has left me more uncertain on my investments rather than more certain.

2 - I will try to make sure future posts have 90%+ filler

So I don't feel like my investment portfolio is fantastic right now. However, the market response to my LapsaCoin investment was interesting but not so strong that I am overblown. Oh well. Time for a new investment already?

Really, there are several slots I feel meh on. One that comes to mind is Egix, who I did waffle on because I haven't really found town there when I feel like I should have. Like, this is the same feeling I have for Doughboy though. Especially given how passive both have been. So, then I go back to other reads. Trivium made like a bad post at start and got wagoned for bad reasons, but I feel like his posting since hasn't been particularly town, so I actually think he's scummier now than for the reason he was wagoned. Overall based just on the feel of the game I want to say there's probably scum in {Egix, TGP, Trivium} independent of my read of those slots individually, so TGP is probably a fine investment for today. Perhaps if he was scum he would have gone with a PR claim though...?

So then we get into other reads like Flubb. Here he seems more low impact which reminds me of a game I played with him on one of my other alts. Overall I actually feel like as scum Flubb is a bit pushier with his bad reads. To that extent I wanna say he's town here.

Basically, when we get to xwing I feel like he's pretty good at mimicking his town play, but as town tends to be solvier, and he feels solvy here. And then there's Nikk who has more posts but not a lot that really push things forward. Bah.

You're right, it's hard to formulate my reads clearly when I'm sticking to the meme so much. So maybe I should be more willing to mix back and forth between meme style and my normal posting. Incidentally, we're also coming into the holidays so I'd kinda rather be willing to stick to one full "market analysis" post every other day since that seems manageable right now. To that extent, I don't think even with pressure my posting frequency will increase. That might not change immediately once the holiday is past since I'll still be away from home until January. Even so, I am reading the game and keeping up. Really my reads right now just don't feel strong so if we're ready to advance I guess we can or whatever even if this wagon doesn't seem "like a certain jackpot"

[Wagonomics]

I will hammer in ~3 hours unless someone has a compelling reason not to, so TGP can compose his final reads/thoughts/etc.

If anyone has some final big thing to say now's the time

[Wagonomics]

Ehh, your RVS section was pretty meh, your push on Flubber felt weak, and I didn't love your move to Rob either. There's a fair amount of fluffposting in between the pushes. Like that doesn't make you "VALUE guaranteed" since I don't feel like there's a lot of Top Economic Data in this game to generate High Quality Investments so you could plausibly just have been kinda lost early on but you could also just be scum trying to look busy

[Wagonomics]

TGP, you mention your reads list, but your posts also give the impression that your read of Doughboy has changed in the interim. Who would you say is scummier between Egix and Doughboy right now?

[Wagonomics]

VOTE: Egix

Let's pretend deadline is in 2 hours. Would anyone be interested in a CFD here?

[Wagonomics]

A Chinese Fire Drill. That's where lots of people change wagons very suddenly to reach a compromise when the clock is about to run out.

Like, Golden fosing me there and his claim made me think his town equity has increased a little bit. I'm not really interested in investing in ProfiiCoin right now, my investment in Lapsa didn't make me feel confident there, so wondering if people are interested in EgixCoin for today. If TGP is both town and his reads are not bad then I think this is a stock worth looking into.

[Wagonomics]

He seemed more pissed off that people were ignoring his reads than that he was being lynched which seems kinda townie tbh

527 and 528 are kinda bad and could in fact be theater, in fact if TGP flipped scum I would say profii is more likely to flip scum now as well

But ProfiiCoin markets itself in large part from the BOON school of economics which maintains that "One reaction test a day keeps the wolves at bay" so it is plausible profii + tgp is t/t

mostly 518 made me seriously doubt the value of an investment in GoldCoin

[Wagonomics]

Slight scumlean on egix, neutral on db.

I don't think a Profii investment goes through today. Would you like to invest in EgixCoin?

[Wagonomics]

I don’t think FoSing the lurker (no offense) on your way out AFTER I did it like three pages ago is a towntell, but call me old fashioned.

no the part where he's like "I've got a reads list and I'm sticking to it, and tomorrow you'll know I'm town so then you'll read it"

that's a pretty town sentiment for L-1 and ITH

[Wagonomics]

The real question: how many coins are two Trivium arms worth?

[Wagonomics]

Is that hammer? I was lyncher, TGP was my target. I win right?

It was not. I am an Informed Economist, and GoldCoin actually has the Loved Modifier, so that was only L-1.

[Wagonomics]

Trivium might be town.

[Wagonomics]

Here's my IPO for today

VOTE: Sashaddin

[Wagonomics]

Mastina can you talk about your stock options on XCoin? I was starting to see it as having low investment potential.

[Wagonomics]

I am ascetic.

So I've been thinking about this over night. First, I believe mastina, I think it is very likely she would lie about being ascetic as either alignment.

However, I do think it could be a scum claim.

I'd like you to look at the last three setups schadd has modded in New York/normal queue. In any, does he have a situation where there would be the level of explicit negative utility between a 2-shot loyal neighborizor (likely town's strongest investigative) and a town role?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=76388

Here we have weak fruit vendor and a 1-shot roleblocker (which could theoretically block that fruit vendor in case of mass claim)

The closest we would get to loyal neighborizor + ascetic would be here: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=77101

jailkeeper + fruit vendor

Schadd did do (town neap + ascetic) but he made both informed that the other was town, thus guaranteeing there would be no negative utility.

So while mastina is likely a real ascetic it seems like it would make more sense for her to be a scum ascetic (to have a way to deny the hard guilty from loyal neighborizor) than a town negative utility when the town investigative was already heavily gated. After all, schadd advertises his setups based on "no cops"; I don't think he likes scum having no response to a hard guilty.

Now given the speed of Sashaddin's L-1 on me I'm still pretty happy of my scumread there but I think this might be better.

VOTE: mastina

[Wagonomics]

That's a weird way to ask people to join a counter wagon on a scum slot dude

It is a weird way. So you need to think through the likelihood of whether I am scum that was trying to save a buddy slot, or town that did not actually know with certainty that the slot was flipping scum.

Now I understand that people think I was pushing a counter-wagon to scum. Because clearly that is objectively what was happening. The question is whether you think I would do that as scum, which is to say, do you think I am an idiot?

You should think about my relative position before the L-1. I was basically being universally ignored. If I came in, L-1'd, and then hammered scum, I would earn a fair amount of towncred and be in a position today where I could coast.

So I guess my question is, why, as scum, would I L-1 my buddy only to lose any and all towncred by backing off the wagon once I had already committed to it? If the whole point of the ITH was to gain towncred, why would I sacrifice that to... save a goon who was probably going down anyway?

vs.

I was town and changed my mind based on his reaction to ITH.

Obviously I can't totally defend my play at end of day yesterday because I was so clearly wrong in my changing read. But I don't see how you would think it clearly lines up to a scum strategy.

[Wagonomics]

When it became clear Wagonomics wasn't going to commit to the Golden lynch, gave me the confidence that Golden might be scum then.

If you were confident, why did you hammer before my ITH window passed? Theoretically there was still 10 more minutes before I could have changed my mind yet again. While I was second-guessing myself, it's odd to assume I was not going to hammer Golden when I said "I will hammer Golden in 3 hours" and you decided to hammer after 2 and a half hours. If your goal was to get a read on me, why not see if I would keep to my word?

[Wagonomics]

I thought about either Trivium-Robert or Lapsa-Wagonomics. I'm less and less sure about those first, so

VOTE: Wagonomics

I do encourage you to look at Sashaddin's town games and show me an example of him jumping from one leading wagon to another on d2.

[Wagonomics]

No, the fact that he chose me specifically for his 'CFD' is irrelevant.

I kinda find this unlikely to be true and I think you should think more critically about whether scum actually plays the end of day 1 like that.

[Wagonomics]

When it became clear Wagonomics wasn't going to commit to the Golden lynch, gave me the confidence that Golden might be scum then

This actually really bothers me because the whole point of an ITH is when the conversation dried up and we had a number of interesting reactions after my ITH. I actually felt like interesting conversation was happening and I wanted to see whether TGP would commit to an Egix wagon. Like, you're acting like we had gotten all the useful associative tells out of him that we were going to get, when that was not obviously the case.

[Wagonomics]

Profli/wagonomics/golden or my arms

Just out of curiosity, how many coins are your arms worth?

[Wagonomics]

Wagonomics - “I would have obviously have cashed in on that sweet town cred if I was scum by bussing TGP”

I want you to ask yourself, seriously ask yourself, if someone named wagonomics would not cash in on town cred if he was scum

[Wagonomics]

So we have to decide between:


Mastina - “don’t cop me I’m ascetic lols”

Or

Wagonomics - “I would have obviously have cashed in on that sweet town cred if I was scum by bussing TGP”

Robert's push also pisses me off a bit and I'm second-guessing my townread there, and Sashaddin is playing pretty differently than his town meta tbh.

Also, for someone who does a reaction test every single day, I find it a bit offensive that you don't even entertain the notion that my "CFD" was a reaction test. I mean it wasn't, but I don't see why you wouldn't think it was given that it is only a CFD *if I still intend to hammer* since otherwise the day just keeps going on

[Wagonomics]

In fact - intent to hammer, claim?

I've dropped the gimmick and now you want to ITH before you talk to me?

Profii don't be a douche

[Wagonomics]

Tell me you've actually thought about the way people were reading me before ITH and that you think, as scum, I really back off my ITH because of a single post if I actually know TGP flips scum.

Tell me you've actually reread how people were reading me before ITH and that's your conclusion on how I act at end of day yesterday as scum and I'll claim.

Don't fucking just ITH me because you've decided you're the only one who has permission to gambit or make risky plays at end of day.

[Wagonomics]

Lapsa wasnt on me dumbass

Well my desire to lynch you every game continues to be justified

When you see my flip you will get why I think mastina would be too much negative utility

[Wagonomics]

You made sure I missed again with your shit gambit and this is going to be another game where shadd is sad he doesnt get to see town tprs do anything

Thanks for reconsidering nothing and being a garbage player as you have been every time I have been with you profii

[Wagonomics]

Every time you do a shit gambit profii you cost town the game

When are you going to get that wifoming your way to day 3 doesnt do any fucking good if you can't read people in lylo

Mastina/robert/sasha can have 2/3. Sasha being busy does not make him town here. I thought rob was town but if he stole my hammer just to speedlynch me today he is either shit town or scum and either way can eat a rope

Profii should just be vigged so he doesnt throw another lylo

[Wagonomics]

You made sure I missed again with your shit gambit and this is going to be another game where shadd is sad he doesnt get to see town tprs do anything

Thanks for reconsidering nothing and being a garbage player as you have been every time I have been with you profii

This was at profii btw

Sasha you're fine even if you rolled scum here

[Wagonomics]

I mean this is just the prophecy of shadd games right

Tprs go into the meat grinder

That being said this is now probably mountainous. I would lynch any other tlr claims to maintain the tradition

[Wagonomics]

Idk maybe if there is a speedwagon and someone is put to l1 fucking count the votes before you do what might be a hammer

Such garbage play

Btw if it seems like I want profii to feel bad its because I do

I feel bad for schadd, I should not have been lynched today

I expect this level of surface level thinking from trivium or egix but profii, who insists on useless gambits in every single fucking game, never ever fuxking thinks about how an actual tpr might plat eod

Such fucking hypocrisy

[Wagonomics]

Hmm maybe the person memeing all of d1 and then does scummy shit when he is townread has a reason for shaking eod townreads

No, definitely scum

Good thing you rushed hammer after i said to reread for once in your fucking life

[Wagonomics]

If Sashaddin was scum it wouldn't be the first time scum backed off after a wagon formed to push on.

Not sure why Schadd didn't process the flip, probably was just busy I guess.

Mastina lowkey townpinged me but I still don't really see how she can be town based on role. Including Lolwagons in her readslist tho is something I'm trying to think through why she would do that as scum unless that was like her kill priority list, which still wouldn't really make sense. So she might? be town. But I would need to understand more of the setup to see how.

I got a bit pissed a profii for the hammer, mostly because he *never* actually gets better reads from a reaction test. This is like our fifth game and every game where he does a shitty reaction test it fucks up his reads and he plays worse, and every time he just fucking plays normal the game gets won. Like I don't see why he keeps doing it when he actually is capable of playing well but he insists on strategies that don't work.

My mislynch is probably fine in retrospect, mostly pissed I didn't get a chance to actually properly sort mastina so if I'm somehow wrong about her role's relation to the setup then scum will abuse it.

I've pretty much totally flipped my read of robert at this point. I kinda thought he might be a scum driven mislynch but his play today has left me kinda indifferent to his alignment and I think his push on me was incredibly scummy.

Given the way this played out I'm probably wrong about at least one major read and maybe both though. Maybe profii is actually scum and not just the same idiot town I keep having to deal with. It would be nice for him to have that out. But him thinking I play as a fucking meme alt and then lose it because he lynched me as scum suggests that he has no idea why I even alt in the first place. I alt because I get fucking angry at dumbass towns and was trying to effort less this game. Also rushing a hammer before anyone has a chance to fucking say anything is just really obnoxious. If I did have good crumbs, or if I did want to actually talk to people before a solve, he basically is just saying I don't get a chance to do that because... why? Because I was wrong about TGP? Like it's not like TGP was super obvious scum, he was a fine wagon but I wanted to see if he would commit to Egix before getting lynched. I was still maybe going to lynch him.

Anyway I was just getting nightkilled anyway so boo hoo you wasted one mislynch and now you have no more power roles since profii made sure there was 0% chance I was protecting Lolwagons last night anyway.

[Wagonomics]

i think it is cries "shit play" every time i simply dont see the game the same way they do.

or maybe it's "shit play" because you just lynched an unclaimed tpr because you were too lazy to look at the vote count?

but you're right, I should give you the benefit of the doubt--you're just powerwolfing scum

I shouldn't insult you, I should simply accept you're playing to scum wincon

I mean I was thinking you were just an idiot, but if you're going to use your dumbtells as an excuse to avoid being scumread, you're absolutely right--you just powerhammered the town protective without waiting for a claim after less than a rl day

so you're absolutely right.

Profii isn't playing like shit, he is open wolfing and should be lynched. Don't let anyone talk town out of lynching him tomorrow because, as he himself has said, he was not playing like shit here and was in fact fully in control of his thought process and choices.

[Wagonomics]

Except you did not

You doubled down

And then you said I was scum for being angry you speedhammered me

Dont act like a fucking martyr because I am calling you out on it

[Wagonomics]

If Wagonomics is who i think it is given their hostility to me then the flip could go either way tbh. i still think scum but the person i think it is cries "shit play" every time i simply dont see the game the same way they do.

i dont feel bad at all.

dude cares a lot given they know i do shit gambits all the time, why take it so seriously if you know

I'd out them but that would mean there would be some truth in what he is saying, whereas actually it's all just a massive AtE

This is your apology then?

Oh I'm sorry maybe you thought it was a reaction test

Well it worked. I'm wotcing you in future games. Reaction test succeeded.

[Wagonomics]

I called you a dumbass only once and that was immediately after your hammer

If you had apologized then maybe I would have backed off

But in your shame you clammed up and doubled down

You knew what you did but refused to acknowledge it

So stop pretending you're a martyr. If you were going to apologize you would have done it when I first pointed it out. You did not. Don't lie to yourself

[Wagonomics]

Given profiis reaction to my ate here he might? Be town. I do think sorting scum speedhammers from town derphammers is pretty difficult. I would not say he passed my ate test with flying colors tho.

I kinda think x would have tried to get in for some towncred if he was lurking as scum so I am inclinef to say he really just missed this whole thing. I think if mastina is town there is a decent chance her push on x is misguided.

Still not liking robert acting like he thinks I am scum and shading lapsa. Feel like he is trying too hard.

I could plausibly wrong on nikk again but I think I flip my read on him every time I reread him.

Robert/mastina is not impossinle altho the replace in bus is ???

[Wagonomics]

656 - you say dumbass

658 - you call my play shit and garbage

659 - called shit again

663 - you infer “surface level thinking” about me

690 - this almost looks like you calmed down then you called me an idiot


I said it was a mistake on my part but you can’t help yourself but go off it in every other post

I don’t really care whatever makes you feel better - I’m just pointing out this probably just reflects on you at this point

I wanna say profii defends himself here regardless of alignment and I wanna say there is a better than average chance he reevaluates my slot based on the ate if he was town

I do think its cute that he bought it tho. But he could just be scum playing up my test to gain towncred. I would not give this slot a hard pass

[Wagonomics]

I don't get it, I thought you liked reaction tests?

I mean you just speedhammered the last tpr do you not want to be sortable tomorrow?

The only thing you have left is reactions

Who is scum profii? Stop focusing on the ate and sort. What if you die tonight? Do you want your last words complaining to the town you mislynched about trying to sort you? When my rolestopper ability flips does that make mastina scum or not?

[Wagonomics]

Wait...
So profii hammered by mistake because he thought Lapsa was unvoting Nomics rather than Robert?
Fuuuuuuuuck
Profii, regardless of your alignment... please try and be more careful next time.

Lol why would he be more careful as a wolf

Egix you say some strange things.

So yeah Im flipping one shot rolestopper. How is that not too much negative utility with mastina?

I also have some bg shots so im probs the only protective

I thought profii was weak so I didnt use a shot since if he was lying a real cop needed to check him which rolestop would have prevented

[Wagonomics]

Wait...
So profii hammered by mistake because he thought Lapsa was unvoting Nomics rather than Robert?
Fuuuuuuuuck
Profii, regardless of your alignment... please try and be more careful next time.

Yeah apologies to all - my bad

Why my alignment and not wagonomics though - which way is he going to flip?

Rolestopper seems like a weird choice for scum to fakeclaim.
I'll wait for the flip before saying anything else tho.

Why? Theres no more tprs so you can talk freely

The schadd tpr meat.grinder has persisted

[Wagonomics]

Goon goon ascetic goon vs loyal neighbor and 1 shot rolestop + 2 shot bg + vts

Thats why I voted mastina

I really dont see how town ascetic would be balanced