[Game Over] Open 743 - The Crown of Misery

[Lamees]

Lamees (L-4)

: Malakitty, YyottaCat, Persivul

Leodanny (L-5)

: Thor665, Egix96

rb (L-5)

: Lamees, Leodanny

DVa (L-6)

: NotNova

Dunnstral (L-6)

: rb

NotNova (L-6)

: DVa

YyottaCat (L-6)

: Dunnstral

Something_Smart, Auro

I also agree that lynching me (when at least the odds are more than 50/50) is a good idea. So I am for my lynch, not day 1 though.

[Persivul]

VOTE: Lamees
Unless someone convinces me it's a bad idea to lynch Lamees today.
If Lam is scum, great.
If she's town and scum have a framer, they have to correctly guess her venge kill, so larger numbers works for us, and we don't deal with the WIFOM.

The role card doesn't specify, but I would think that for a lynch, the smite resolves in twilight, so scum have no ability to affect it.

[Persivul]

I expected this kind of reasons to vote me if it was last minute. Anyway I think I gave ample time for players to evaluate the claim. If by end of day 1 you'd still knowingly lynch town then can't be helped.

Really hate the way you keep spinning this as knowingly lynching town.

You're
not
an
IC.

[Lamees]

If we can get rid of the immortal (high chance of scum picking this role to counter me) before my lynch/nk that would be great.

[Persivul]

Actually wait, in LyLo we can lynch Lamees and she venge kills the second consensus scumread.

Nope, lylo is lylo - lynch scum or lose.

Suppose it's 4:3 lylo.
Kill Lamees, 3:3.
Lamees kills scum, 3:2.
Absent a protection, scum NK and win.

Removing one of each side is essentially a no lynch, which loses in lylo.

[Lamees]

I think he meant 1 day before lylo

[Egix96]

Okay, I've just had a quick skim through everything that happened since the last time I was here, which was about 24 hours ago.
Does anyone else think that rb's most recent posts (from about #339 onward) are very scummy in tone? Apart from the supposed scumslip, that is?
Maybe I'm getting hardcore pocketed by Lamees here, but in all honesty I would much rather lynch rb today.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: rb

[Lamees]

Okay, I've just had a quick skim through everything that happened since the last time I was here, which was about 24 hours ago.
Does anyone else think that rb's most recent posts (from about #339 onward) are very scummy in tone? Apart from the supposed scumslip, that is?
Maybe I'm getting hardcore pocketed by Lamees here, but in all honesty I would much rather lynch rb today.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: rb

Yeah I did notice rb sounded more like frustrated scum had just lost their lynch after my claim. He/she was whining big time.

[Persivul]

Okay, I've just had a quick skim through everything that happened since the last time I was here, which was about 24 hours ago.
Does anyone else think that rb's most recent posts (from about #339 onward) are very scummy in tone? Apart from the supposed scumslip, that is?
Maybe I'm getting hardcore pocketed by Lamees here, but in all honesty I would much rather lynch rb today.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: rb

We could lynch Lamees and, if town, she smites rb.

@mod: if an angel is lynched, does the smite resolve before night begins?

[Lamees]

@persivul, for the last time, I am not telling who I'll smite!

[Lamees]

Anyways I'll say it one more time before I move on from this claim. I do not think we should lynch me day 1 as 3/9 odds are low. I prefer a 50/50 or more and I'll be fine with my lynch.

3/7 can work too I guess. But 3/9 is the worst possible case. Also if you think I'm somehow scum and fake claimed, why would I prematurely claim as scum? Scum gets little room for fake claims and you really think I screwed my team over on day 1 at L-3? I claimed because there needs to be time to properly read the claim and not make a rushed decision.

[Persivul]

@persivul, for the last time, I am not telling who I'll smite!

I noted some time ago that I agree with that.

[Persivul]

Anyways I'll say it one more time before I move on from this claim. I do not think we should lynch me day 1 as 3/9 odds are low. I prefer a 50/50 or more and I'll be fine with my lynch.

50/50 or more means scum have already won.

[MiniDeathStar]

Game Mechanics

If an angel is lynched, the smite resolves during twilight and before nightfall.
Ghosts cannot affect the outcome of smiting during the day.

[Egix96]

Yeah I did notice rb sounded more like frustrated scum had just lost their lynch after my claim. He/she was whining big time.

I was thinking that they were thinking they'd been caught and started fooling around (e.g. hahaha spam, the Dunnstral vote) but yeah you seem to be seeing what I'm seeing.

[Lamees]

Anyways I'll say it one more time before I move on from this claim. I do not think we should lynch me day 1 as 3/9 odds are low. I prefer a 50/50 or more and I'll be fine with my lynch.

50/50 or more means scum have already won.

True, sorry, town perspective here. Forgot how scum wins. Never rolled it in months.

So I guess closest we can get is 3/5 chance assuming we misslynch twice. Still way better than 3/9

But I really hope the immortal gets lynched before then.

[Egix96]

3/7 can work too I guess. But 3/9 is the worst possible case.

I don't think those fractions are quite right. Shouldn't the denominator be (# of remaining players - 1) rather than (# of remaining town - 1)?

[Lamees]

Yeah my numbers are wrong lol. It's actually 3/12. Urg so low.

[Lamees]

It's actually worse than I thought now. So we'll never get a really good chance. Best is 1 day before lylo.

[Lamees]

Imo scum night kills me tonight because that denominator slowly creeps down as the game goes on.

[DVa]

So vengeful can be a survivalistic claim because it is obviously better at later phases, so if Lamees was a scum pr it could make sense. But it's also the case that going to day 2 at least will confirm that the night flip isn't a tpr and also give other roles a chance to do stuff. The problem right now is that when lamees has minimal information his chance of hitting a tpr is only marginally lower than hitting scum if he's town (either 1/12 or 2/12 vs 3/12).

I think evaluating whether Lamees is a good lynch will be easier on day 2 as well as the likelihood of his hit landing not being catastrophic

[Lamees]

It's ok DVA because I only kill scum.

[Lamees]

Well not all scum

[Persivul]

The better odds argument doesn't fly. Remember, if you're really town angel, then yes, you have better chance of hitting scum as the game progresses (unless we're really good scum hunters).

BUT...the exact same thing can be said of the town lynch. If we assume you're town and lynch you one day before lylo, we've given up a lynch with a higher probability of hitting scum.

You're asking us to put the higher probability day solely in your hands, rather than in our collective hands.

[Persivul]

If you're really angel, you should have kept it to yourself.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... ful_(role)

Claiming Vengeful Townie is not advised (unless your actual role is Vengeful and Mafia-aligned). The effect of giving its faction a bonus kill is useless unless you yourself are worth lynching - otherwise it's obviously more profitable to lynch the player you would Vengefully kill while leaving you alive. Thus, Vengeful claims under duress are seen as grounds for a policy lynch.