Open 740: Hope Plus One [Game over]
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Ok, 9 pages to catch up on.
Think there's been a movement to paint Bambi as scum, about PR speculation and also jumping on almost50's bandwagon. DS and Volxion just casually parking their votes for completely different reasons, not actively attacking but softly sowing suspicion. Maybe I'm imagining it, but maybe not.- bristep123
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Can't say it's from a place of experience (or skill!) but it's an attempt to. Like I said, maybe I'm seeing something in nothing, but it's certainly piqued my interest.Sleepless Assassin wrote:
Is this you scumreading DS and volx? Pretty sure it is, but I want to know for sure.In post 256, bristep123 wrote:Ok, 9 pages to catch up on.
Think there's been a movement to paint Bambi as scum, about PR speculation and also jumping on almost50's bandwagon. DS and Volxion just casually parking their votes for completely different reasons, not actively attacking but softly sowing suspicion. Maybe I'm imagining it, but maybe not.- bristep123
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Ok, so initial reads.
Volxen - Veering scum, still not keen on the reasoning against Bambi it's a 13 person game, a 4 player wagon isn't the worst thing in the world at this early stage. A bit of fence sitting 'unable to form strong reads' but claimed almost50 as somewhat towny without any reasoning.
Sleepless Assassin - Veering town at this early stage, votes have been thrown out in various direction so there's some confidence and attempts at investigation.
Reaper of Souls - Is he fence-sitting or just very unsure of himself? I'm not sure, couple of names thrown out but no strong opinions put out there yet. Neutral veering scum, thought the removal of the RVS was weird when he had no reads to follow it up with.
ofrhz - right now town, quite fast and loose with posts but doing some good pressing/probing. If I'm wrong there then he's a confident scum player to play that way.
Gamma Emerald - neutral right now, nothing there screams scum but is questioning others but not really offering much substance right now
Egix96 - town, questioning reads and also picked up on Reaper's removal of his random first vote.
DS - No strong read on them at this point. Did feel the Bambi vote was a little weak but could just be a bad read or all they've got to go on right now.
davesaz - No read yet, not much of substance at this point.
Clemency - 63 posts since game start and absolutely zero substance. Too much white noise to be scum, so for now I say town.
Bambi - All over the place, I don't know where to start. Quoted Johnny Johnny, so as a parent of 2 young children that's enough to sway me for now. Town.
Almost50 - veering scum right now, but not strong. Again another that pointed at Bambi for voting for him, but since the vote was for him it doesn't read as much as the others who highlighted it. Also some posts I can't tell if are serious so that could be deliberate.
Adelbert - Has posted twice, both times a vote with no reasoning. Isn't participating in the game, votes without reasons can be early and random but also might be scum trying to hide (and might have done so in a busier game).
Had a real long play gap as I mentioned before, so I know the history/play style of nobody, just got instinct at this point.
So,Unvote Sleepless Assassin
Vote Volxen- bristep123
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Really? Interesting how, what have I bumbled my way across?In post 285, ofrhz wrote:
Gut scumreading thisIn post 256, bristep123 wrote:Ok, 9 pages to catch up on.
Think there's been a movement to paint Bambi as scum, about PR speculation and also jumping on almost50's bandwagon. DS and Volxion just casually parking their votes for completely different reasons, not actively attacking but softly sowing suspicion. Maybe I'm imagining it, but maybe not.
This is an interesting readIn post 278, bristep123 wrote:Ok, so initial reads.
<snip>
Bambi - All over the place, I don't know where to start. Quoted Johnny Johnny, so as a parent of 2 young children that's enough to sway me for now. Town.- bristep123
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Isn't that 4 theories? Overwhelmed Newbie, Forgotten Alt, Site Flaker, quiet scum.
I agree we should wait until Adelbert either contributes or is swapped out.
Volxen is a lot more active on the forum than this game would suggest. I'm happy with my read.
I read through a previous game Almost50 was in and was super active, scum hunting and leading the town for most of the game. Turned out to be Vengeful Scum and won the game. Behaviour this game is wildly different, so for now I'm taking that as a mild town read (unless they are super good and has multiple scum play styles).
Stll need to do the same for others, but that's my 2 pence for now.- bristep123
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Sure. I have no read either way for Bambi, but because of humorous reason I called them town. I had hoped that would have been apparent but clearly I missed the mark.
The early stuff about painting as scum is pure speculation, based on what I perceived as weak reasoning for the votes against Bambi. Any subsequent reads that I get on the 3 will affect the context or meaning of those early votes.- bristep123
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Re post 385 from Volxen - I won't quote it because it's massive; there's some real nitpicking and skewing going on here. I said that the initial voting of he and DS made me think there might be a paint of Bambi as scum, key word is *think*. I didn't drop a vote on either, and admitted it only piqued my interest. I mean content is bloody light here so that was literally all I had picked up on at that point. My read on DS later on was based on a read of the ISO and it didn't really give me much more than what I initially thought (I even said as much in my read, where I said I still thought the vote was weak but in isolation I have nothing to give it context), whereas with Volxen I saw more (and again, I went into that in the post that he quoted). Volxen is taking bits out of my post to support his agenda, and ignoring the parts that contradict or negate his argument.
It's also interesting that I said I didn't like Volxen's reasons for his read on Almost50 which contributed to my subsequent read on him, and then he uses the exact same reasoning in his read of me while marking me as scum for doing so.
The follow up post about Bambi's post is further evidence (to me) that he's looking at any post putting him in a negative light for anything he can nitpick at and skew/twist. To the detriment of actually reading the posts properly and actually understanding them fully before commenting.
Regarding Egix - I gave reasons for my read, and their speculation on Bambi was more reasonable than Volxen and DS's. Again, I have no read on Bambi and I've covered this before; I didn't vote for DS or Volxen on that first post because there was no context to weigh up what I had seen. Also - I said on Reaper's read that I thought his vote removal was weird, so hence I gave Egix credit for picking it up.
My vote is staying right where it is.- bristep123
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First game in legitimately 5 years, I don't have a general rule for anything. Were we at the end of RVS at that point?In post 471, ofrhz wrote:
Do you scumread unvotes at the end of rvs as a general rule?In post 397, bristep123 wrote: Regarding Egix - I gave reasons for my read, and their speculation on Bambi was more reasonable than Volxen and DS's. Again, I have no read on Bambi and I've covered this before; I didn't vote for DS or Volxen on that first post because there was no context to weigh up what I had seen. Also -I said on Reaper's read that I thought his vote removal was weird, so hence I gave Egix credit for picking it up.- bristep123
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Ok, I'm here. Sorry I've been away for work since Monday morning. Literally being a lurker as I can't log in from my phone.
For those who are questioning Egix, he jumped from nothing to L-2 very quickly so I can see why he might start looking at the wagon (if he is town), it would be a reckless scum player to try a very obvious counter 'look at the other people who had wagons both jumping on me' and risk the chance that it gets picked apart. For me anyway. BTW, is Sleepless Assassin baiting us with 'you should be looking at me'?
Likewise I still think Clem is playing very fast and loose and doesn't seem to be overly careful or analytical of his content. There's more actual gameplay now but still if there's scum behaviours I do struggle to find it.
I still don't like Volxen's content, its very sporadic (hypocrite me I realise) and has only been focused on defending himself or trying to counter attack people scumreading or voting for him. There's no productive townwork in his ISO. I do realise there's no traction in a wagon on him though, so for now I need to read through the game more and see if there's anything I can pick up on with my newbie but not newbie eyes.- bristep123
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It wasn't answered no, and that was intentional on my part. 'But why', I've already covered that Volx is only content with defending himself/scumreading those scumreading him, and the question was from him. The answers are out there in the game, others pointed out and queried the RVS removal with reasons at the time but Volx did not question them (because these others had not made a case against him).In post 689, ofrhz wrote:
Sorry to dig this up, but this was never answered.In post 479, volxen wrote:
But why is the fact that Reaper removed his RVS vote "weird" and possibly scummy?In post 477, bristep123 wrote:
First game in legitimately 5 years, I don't have a general rule for anything. Were we at the end of RVS at that point?In post 471, ofrhz wrote:
Do you scumread unvotes at the end of rvs as a general rule?In post 397, bristep123 wrote: Regarding Egix - I gave reasons for my read, and their speculation on Bambi was more reasonable than Volxen and DS's. Again, I have no read on Bambi and I've covered this before; I didn't vote for DS or Volxen on that first post because there was no context to weigh up what I had seen. Also -I said on Reaper's read that I thought his vote removal was weird, so hence I gave Egix credit for picking it up.
Now, the Egix wagon is an interesting pool of names, If DS is scum then that's a ballsy move to failhammer twice. Bambi seems to be using wagons appropriately, to build pressure and actively stopped the 2nd hammer. Clem I still think is town due to playstyle however I don't like A50's post; isn't paying attention but gladly put someone to (he thought) L-1? Another lurker who needs to be spotlighted, so I'll do this for now.
Unvote; VOTE : Almost50- bristep123
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I've been pretty open that I haven't posted much, said as such in my previous post. I've been keeping up though while i couldn't post earlier in the week. Others seem to just react to a mention of their name.
Clem - What's your interpretation on the double fail hammer? Would a scum try and hammer a second time after clearly failing the first time? Genuine question.- bristep123
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Bambi encouraged the hammer but also clearly knew that the count was wrong so it could have been baiting, and actively prevented the second hammer (a few moments slower and you'd be dead right now lets be honest). Why specifically them rather than anyone else on the wagon?In post 712, Egix96 wrote:The sheer rate at whch my wagon grew should be a dead giveaway that I am town.
The scum, whoever they are, have obviously taken the opportunity to push a mislynch on low hanging fruit, as I am possibly the least experienced player in this game. Dick move.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bambietta
I'm now starting to think that we were right the first time.- bristep123
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We're going to need any doctors still out there to CC now aren't we. FFS. Assuming that either A50 or SA are lying we still have another doctor out there (or 2, if they both are) so there's now a risk of cancelling out each other's protection.
IF Volx is town cop (which he isn't) then we lose that PR today which is a bad hit for the town but a guaranteed scum hit on D2 with Clem. If Clem is cop (which I believe as have had a TR all game on him) then we're losing a doctor tonight, then probably Clem night 2 so we need to try and work out who Clem investigates tonight to ensure we hit scum 2 nights in a row.- bristep123
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I'm aware we might get a lynch on Volx before the 2 claimed doctors state their intentions re: protection since neither are prolific contributors so far.
Clem - If you protect Bambi tonight and the 2 doctors protect you and Bambi it guarantees you're both alive on D2, and tbh will give one of 3 scenarios
Volx flips town - You die D2
Volx flips scum, you get scum result on Bambi - Bambi dies D2
Volx flips scum, you get town result on Bambi - 2 guaranteed town players.
I'm not convinced that both claimed docs are telling the truth, so I would suggest that BOTH protect Clem tonight. If there is another doctor out there, they protect Bambi.
My theory for that is as follows
If A50 or SA are lying scum then Bambi and Clem are both protected. If the scum kills the real doc overnight it allows them to kill Clem on N2 but really puts pressure on the scum fake claimer on D2 and a real lynch risk.
If A50 or SA are lying town then Bambi and Clem are both protected. Scum won't know the roles of either so by targetting one of the two claimants might accidentally shoot a vanilla townie essentially confirming the other as Macho Doc (and guaranteeing Clem sees D3 and gives us another read).
If A50 AND SA are both truthing then scum don't know this and trying to kill either claimant or Clem/Bambi will run the risk of wasting their kill.- bristep123
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In post 825, Almost50 wrote:
^2nd Scum^In post 803, bristep123 wrote:We're going to need any doctors still out there to CC now aren't we.
In what world should a Doctor out when we've already decided on lynch that has claimed scum?
First post is superceded by the second. The first was my initial reaction to the situation, the second was a thought process/theory that I thought might give us the best chance while leaving the potential doctor(s) still out there unknown to the scum.Almost50 wrote:I'll reiterate:Sleepless Assassin will be on Clemency. The other Doctor will protect elsewhere.
Also, bri made yet another scummy post: Both Doctors protect the Cop = Protection fails. Good one. Then he wants Bambi checked = Bambi is Town and Scum are happy they won't be checked.
I know I said not to give instructions to Clemency and let him pick his pwn target, but if I was in his shoes I'd check Chibi tonight and lynch bri on D2 anyway. If Chibi is Mafia the game is theoretically over on D2 (Chibi should just surrender when we lynch the 2nd scum and there' a guilty on her). If Chibi is Town then we still lynch bri and Clemency will have the chance to check someone else of his own choice.
But then that's just me, and I still think Clemency can check just about anyone he pleases.
My 2nd post; the one you said is scummy is based on a) you absolutely being convinced that SA is definitely a doctor, and this whole 'I claimed doctor but I might not be, but I'm definitely town so don't worry if I get proven to be a liar' you've been pitching. I said both should protect Clem based on my own thought; that one of you is lying so by telling you both to protect Clem ONLY ONE DOCTOR WILL BE PROTECTING CLEM. I specifically said that the other doctor, if they are out there should protect Bambi - but only based on the assumption from the previous posts that Clem was going to investigate Bambi. If it's not Bambi then it should be the person who Clem is investigating. If you are both town players then the scum will have no way of knowing which/both/neither are telling the truth and will be taking a big risk in targetting either of you/Clem/investigation target.
If we protect the investigation target then that means the scum have to go elsewhere for their NK. If we don't and they kill the investigation target then we only have 1 town player confirmed overnight, this way we'll have 2 (or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum if the read goes that way). That gives us twice the contextual meta to investigate on N2. I don't see how that's a bad thing?
My whole post was centered around trying to make things difficult for the scum covering all the options based on what's out there, speculative and factual (fact : we have 2 claimed doctors. speculation : one of them is probably lying).
Anyway - You pick up my post as scummy but ignore that I've been on Volx's case from the get go. Unless there's somehow a townflip here then I'd expect him to be royally pissed with me if we were scumbuddies.- bristep123
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'That's my problem with this' is what I'm basing my last part on. Egix asked a question of Gamma and A50 to get their thoughts on why they felt Volx was lying, you then immediately put it as suspicious by saying you had a problem with A50's play. My interpretation is that it's soft seed sowing, maybe I'm wrong but I wasn't on Volx when I picked up on a small thing early on. Also you haven't given a response to my other point, the vote on me. D1 you were very 'just acting on feels, my reads are rubbish' and you were very fence sitty last day, I don't accept that you say you weren't.- bristep123
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Good enough for me!
For reals though, currently based on last day and what we know I have Clem, Bambi, A50, Egix and Gamma as town leans right now (conf town in the case of Clem and Bambi) plus me obv, that leaves Davesaz, DS, Alfonso, Chibi and Reaper as null or scum, out of that Chibi is my strongest lean.- bristep123
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To be fair you saying you're a bad player only really works if we know your meta to verify that. I've said often that this is the first game I've played in around 5 years but I wouldn't for a second use that to defend a read on me.
Also - would scum have anything to gain from behaving as you have, if they can successfully play it off as inexperience or bad play then yes, i think they would.
Anyway, I'm voting for you, not tunnelling on you right now so also looking elsewhere.
Volxen's wagon is interesting. Assuming that 1 of his scummates was on the wagon there's only one name on there that I don't currently town read and that is Davesaz. If he's not scum that means the other reads were either on Bambi, Chibi or not voting and we had a total town wagon on Volxen (which if true then yay town!). Normally I'd say no way but in a lurky game like this it's possible.
If Reaper is scum with Chibi then his EOD vote would be some lovely distancing since if Chibi was lynched and revealed as scum then that's good 'look guys town' evidence for them to use.
DS - I dunno man, I get some terrible vibes but that late fakeclaim at the end of the day was lunacy to try and pull if scum.- bristep123
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It is available on page one tbf.Almost50 wrote:Or maybe someone didn't get it yet
If anyone believed you at the end of D1 they're horrible at mafia.In post 941, DS wrote:
Did what i was trying to accomplish with that claim at EOD really fly over everyones heads or are you all just horrible at mafia
In post 952, davesaz wrote:I expect my absence after voting Volxen will be a topic of discussion.
I saw the claim and counter, and decided my vote was in the right place and it would be antitown to interfere in any of the cop/doc planning discussion or draw attention to whether I thought any of the claims flying around were real or fake.
I was ready to bring things back on track if needed, but y'all made good choices.
This doesn't ring super true for me. So did anyone properly finger Davesaz as being scum on the wagon, or was this getting an explanation out there before anyone properly did? Explains away his vote, congrats town for getting it right, then analyses the wagon in the next postIn post 953, davesaz wrote:To look for a bus we want very early on the wagon, or soon after the counter. It's too late at night to do that now. Making myself a note. Entirely possible no scum was on the lynch from a tactics point of view -- this isnotstating a belief that everyone on the wagon is town though, just saying scum may not have been there.
"To look for a bus we want very early on the wagon, or soon after the counter. " - so.....any position but yours?
"Entirely possible no scum was on the lynch from a tactics point of view -- this is not stating a belief that everyone on the wagon is town though, just saying scum may not have been there." Seems a bit fence sitting.
From my point of view if there was scum on the wagon it's Dave, purely from process of elimination as I have townleans on everyone else on it (or conf town). My gut isn't telling me either way at the moment but IF Dave was the scum on the wagon then the above 2 posts look very much like a pre-emptive defence.- bristep123
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Only thing would be to consider that Volxen put Egix at L-1 after it was clear DS was going to hammer having tried to do so already. Not saying it clears him but it's definitely something that leans me towards Dave rather than Egix. Also - Egix was on Volxen very early just like i was, literally 2 days into the game his vote was on Volxen, it shifted around but came back to Volx for the lynch. I don't think that scum would point at their buddy that early and consistently throughout the first phase (much like myself).- bristep123
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Of course, any scenario is possible in theory. I read Egix and Volxen in ISO after A50 made the point about potential distancing, I can see things you would pick up on if that's specifically what you're looking for, but nothing that would outright make me think it was deliberate distancing.
I do give you though, that if Volxen was pissed off with scum Egix for fingering him previously (since there's no day chat I believe) then it's feasible the L-1 vote was bussing for town cred. Especially after the first fail hammer and the wagon at that point looking like it would end with a lynch.- bristep123
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I'm not going to vla but I will be quiet(er) until Saturday as I'm away for work until then and only my phone.
A50 is a claimed doc and playing a very precarious game if he's scum. Egix has been a bit flappy, and I don't like that he and Chibi are townreading me so easily since I'm not proven apart from my consistent push on volxen.
UNVOTE
VOTE: Egix96- bristep123
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I'd like to say again, from my perspective Clem's investigation was a huge help because I'd convinced myself during the night phase that Alonzo was scum based on ofrhz's ISO.
So, quick question. Would both of Volx's buddies have been on his wagon?
If yes - then with the dead/conf town it means we're looking at me, Davesaz or Gamma.
If no - then we're looking at DS, Reaper or Chibi.
Some more lovely metadata :
On both lynch wagons = me.
Off both lynch wagons = DS, Reaper
On 1 lynch wagon = Chibi, Davesaz, Gamma.
A wee bit more meta analysis - The early D1 Egix wagon that almost got us an early scum hit. After the initial fail hammer we had Volxen for real putting him at L-1 and DS trying to hammer a second time. This sequence doesn't read to me like some advanced scum buddy tactics so given Volxen was scum it makes me veer town for DS based on meta if not by behaviour particularly.
Right now for me it's Reaper or Chibi - I don't think that both of Volxen's buddies bussed him. Chibi I've mentioned before has spent the game fence sitting or not scum hunting and blaming it on being a bad player. Outright gave up at the end of D2, however now is back to the early behaviours (again, maybe now as the only scum player she can't 'give up' anymore). Is it good scum trying to play bad town?
Reaper : What's your case on Chibi?- bristep123
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No, the case against you is as mentioned by me above. Your spin that everything is down to you being a failure in the game but that isn't the case against you.In post 1137, ChibiBear wrote:The case against me is that I have been a huge gigantic failure for this entire game. Not a great case imo but naturally that’s my opinion.
To clarify - Nobody is going to lynch you because you're bad town. You would be lynched because we believe you are scum. There is only 1 player in this game right now who doesn't want to lynch scum, I'm not that person.
BTdubs - Reaper I know you've had RL distractions (congrats also!) but your entire read on Chibi is based on Adelbert's 2 votes (and I think his only 2 posts) before idling out?- bristep123
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Gam, why are you twitchy about me? Do you think I'm likely to be scum ahead of any of the others? It kinda bugs me but I'll tell you what's up, I led the charge on Volxen and got on board with Egix on D2. You look at my ISO initially it'll show you I'm not experienced enough to be playing that isolationist a game if I was scum.
You've had reads of your own and I haven't seen any cases from you either so lets go catch scum, Chibi or Reaper which way do you fall?
Chibi - Nobody is complaining that you're a bad player. They are ANALYSING YOUR BEHAVIOUR. You are the only one who has called yourself a bad player, or discounted your own reads. sorry if you had a bad experience in another game but as Dave says you are on day 3 still going on process of elimination with no analysis. People who are voting for you are doing so because they think you're scum. Nobody is putting you under the spotlight because they think you are a bad townie, that's totally on you I'm sorry.- bristep123
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I'll actually correct myself. If you aren't scum Chibi then 1 player might try to advantage of bad play to push a mislynch. That's their job though, and this is a game where every town player suspects everyone (until they die/get confirmed) so really you should still try to participate. Lynching town is bad, if you're town then fight for a town win! Giving up because you think everyone is against you isn't the way to go.
ANYWAY. Bold move, but lets take a chance that we have a frustrated town, and a pocketing scum.
UNVOTE; VOTE : Reaper- bristep123
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In case anyone doesn't believe me, I've bolded the important bits from below for clarity since I done breadcrumbed my role.
In post 1174, bristep123 wrote:It kinda bugs(bunny)me but I'll tell you what's up(DOC), I led the charge on Volxen and got on board with Egix on D2.You look at my ISO initially it'll show youI'm not experienced enough to be playing that isolationist a game if I was scum.In post 265, bristep123 wrote:Can't say it's from a place of experience (or skill!) but it's an attempt to. Like I said, maybe I'm seeing something in nothing, but it's certainly piqued my interest.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7VmOZ4Ppj8
and sure, I can get on board.UNVOTE; VOTE : Chibibear- bristep123
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A50 and SA were the early MVPs, and A50 was pinpoint certain Dave was town, that and the work on Gamma just now backs it up for me so he's last of the 4 to be hung (I sincerely hope we don't get there). Gamma could well be scum but Chibi and Reaper have a stronger scumread on their ISO so I'm happy with your order. I so want to win this phase, Clem deserves to live to see it, A50 and SA died glorious deaths to protect him.- bristep123
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In post 887, ChibiBear wrote:I wanted to see some reactions and you seemed like a good place to start. If you're wondering btw, you're actually doing remarkably well.
Physician, heal thyself.In post 1220, ChibiBear wrote:Also please don't patronise me.
vote :quicknight- bristep123
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DS - I would like your opinion on this. You do basically no active scumhunting the whole game until now when we suddenly get a big ISO post on Dave? Dave, the only other person with yourself who the conf town are townreading and if we follow Bambi's lynch order and mislynch today/tomorrow it'll be you/Dave/1 conf town left? You have said that his ISO read on Gamma also applies to him as well, but wouldn't it also apply to you? After all the only reason anyone really townreads you for was the double failhammer.
Now, I know kinda what the answer is, but Dave doing that big read on Gamma is dangerous if he is scum and Gamma flips town. Likewise it's dangerous for you to do the big ISO on Dave out of nowhere if you are scum and he flips town. Now there's someone who hasn't done a big ISO on anyone, and that's Gamma (also Reaper but he's tomorrow)- bristep123
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I hope Clem didn't get their result last night before dying (I don't know how that works) because I would assume they checked Gamma and if they know which one of us is right will be going a bit mental at all this.
So Dave and Gamma have very similar ISOs and behaviours but Dave is scum over Gamma? I'm not sure I see it, and A50 was absolutely certain about Dave being town which sticks with me since they were one of the early MVPs in this game.- bristep123
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Gamma doesn't call me scum or point to me as scum. They are asking why others read me as town since nobody had made a case other than feeling. I agree they've done no active hunting in the game but neither have a few players and it leads us to an endgame where we're not clear on the last scum due to a lack of activity. You could be seen as pocketing/sheeping, Dave and DS and Gamma could be seen as sowing weak seeds, DS and Dave could be seen as trying to disrupt the final day reads because they're sure the town will lynch Gamma/Reaper so making sure the last lynch isn't them. There's reason for all 4 of you to be suspected.
Alonzo - What's your reason for switching to Dave? Just based on DS's post? - bristep123
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