Open 740: Hope Plus One [Game over]

[davesaz]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Pedit there is a thread for checking that...

[davesaz]

Why the vote if not for that

Pagetopping might mean you’re scum.

[davesaz]

Yuk it up, furball.

I hypothetically disagree with the hypothesis behind hypoclaiming. Despite advertising to the contrary, all it really does is eliminate people from scum's PR list. Most of the time either the hypo inno is on someone who wouldn't make sense to investigate, or it's on someone who eventually needs to be thrown back into the scum pool which reveals the hypoclaimer to be vanilla.

Spoiler: stuff

I'm wounded by whomever thought I'd pull the cranky old man routine. I don't mind people having fun, as long as it's not so fast that a new page pops up on every pedit. Just don't ask me to generate reads from the spam, or believe it when others claim they get reads from it.

Pedit: took too long and missed the juxtaposition of my star wars quote and A50's avatar.

[davesaz]

Good idea. Need input.

[davesaz]

Egix96 looks town.
Not liking the naked vote from Adelbert Steiner.
I agree with grilling ReaperOfSouls. Concern over image...

[davesaz]

Finally with more people the discussion is getting serious. With some jokes still sprinkled in of course.

You seem to be the type of player who would make progress given the increased content, yet you post only this -- why?

[davesaz]

Ok, 9 pages to catch up on.

Think there's been a movement to paint Bambi as scum, about PR speculation and also jumping on almost50's bandwagon. DS and Volxion just casually parking their votes for completely different reasons, not actively attacking but softly sowing suspicion. Maybe I'm imagining it, but maybe not.

Is this you scumreading DS and volx? Pretty sure it is, but I want to know for sure.

Can't say it's from a place of experience (or skill!) but it's an attempt to. Like I said, maybe I'm seeing something in nothing, but it's certainly piqued my interest.

I saw this plus your join date and raised an eyebrow. Then found a 6 ish year hiatus — welcome back!

[davesaz]

Because sometimes you gotta shut up and let other people get the flow going. If I keep talking, it'll give some people some excuse to not start up conversations.

I gotta observe what the quieter people are saying now, so I'm limiting myself to one-liners and this explanation-type post for now. Id like to hear your thoughts though.

Ok
Wanna see you talk at some point tho

Are you making a conscious effort to act differently this game?

[davesaz]

1: Dave is someone I'd rather be aggresive because we need someone to not tolerate our shit and get us back on track.

Umm, yeah I've been trying to not get overly worked up, for health.
Strange that you'd know to ask for that though.

PSA: This week I'm off work (vacation in place) which means I trade work-related interrupts for home-related interrupts. The amount of interrupts will determine whether I'm more or less active.

Pedit: oh, interesting.

[davesaz]

You’d know from that game I’m susceptible to buddying.

[davesaz]

I'm not seeing the stuff from Gamma Emerald that makes it hard for me to read him.
I often, perhaps even usually, notice weird pushes that tend to be awkward as hell and/or based on really hard to follow logic.
See my ISO in HMS Erebus for some posts that try to explain it.
I have previously pointed it out in this thread that his posting seems different to me.

Kinda makes me want to look up some scum games. Scumlean for the moment.

[davesaz]

I’ve never seen dj used in that way.
Can’t think of an ai motivation for using it or questioning it.
I’m a lot more fluent in IPA pronounced India Pale Ale.

[davesaz]

Than international whatchamacallit alphabet.

[davesaz]

BTW I find scum reading a flake to be a

lot

more suspicious than null reading them.

[davesaz]

Nah, nuts.

[davesaz]

Doing some iso's for comparisons.
Egix townlean
bristep below Egix, not sure how far below yet.

[davesaz]

Not a lot to go on for Volxen, but it feels more

looking town

than

being town

. Weak scumlean.

[davesaz]

Reaper and DS are both content free.
That about covers the easy ones. I'm the type who prefers to complete something before tackling a bigger task.

Bambietta sure has a lot of posts, for having touted taking her foot off the gas a RL day ago or so.
I suspect that Clemency iso will be much more spam than substance, from inability to remember anything noteworthy. Though that could be inattention on my part, will see when I dig into it.

[davesaz]

[davesaz]

Reaper and DS are both content free.
That about covers the easy ones. I'm the type who prefers to complete something before tackling a bigger task.

Bambietta sure has a lot of posts, for having touted taking her foot off the gas a RL day ago or so.
I suspect that Clemency iso will be much more spam than substance, from inability to remember anything noteworthy. Though that could be inattention on my part, will see when I dig into it.

You don't want to comment on anything I've said? Even if it is limited? That's a strange mentality for a tow person to have. I'd want to try and dissect what I could at least from my POV

That is a comment on what you've said. I don't see much of anything before your most recent post that I can use to sort you.
The way you're asking about my post is helpful though.

[davesaz]

I don’t get the champs reference.

[davesaz]

I don't do the first, but will gladly encourage someone to do the latter for me and make this game a cakewalk in terms of me having to prove my townieness.

You might try saying a few things about what you think about other people’s posts. Do a good enough job and Powers can be used to find scum, a much better use than clearing.

[davesaz]

You might try saying a few things about what you think about other people’s posts. Do a good enough job and Powers can be used to find scum, a much better use than clearing.

Are you trying to coach me? Lmao

What a weird pocket strat

Nope, just expressing disdain over your attitude. Even a willingness to scumread you for it.

[davesaz]

Congrats Reaper!

I think if the Trumps were a mafia family they would have their act together a little better.

[davesaz]

Anyone want to take the assignment of looking at DS and seeing if there is any genuine solving there? Or even fake solving for that matter.

[davesaz]

86 posts and only 2-3 of them are tangentially related to game content.
VOTE: Clemency
My ok to yuk it up was not an ok to avoid doing anything all game.

[davesaz]

I consider that progress. Can you say a few words on the Sleepless Assassin read?

[davesaz]

Interesting... how about ofrhz?

[davesaz]

People sheep all the time. I guess the point you're trying to make is that 559 is too elaborate for something that's essentially sheeping?

[davesaz]

Grabbing the countdown from the most recent VC...
2018-11-25 20:00:00 3.00
That makes deadline on Sunday around noon Easterm which is after Thanksgiving in the US. We'll have lower posting levels for about the next 2-3 days, while the deadline is 4.5 days.
I think it would actually hurt to make the deadline sooner.

OTOH if we got a lynch soon enough for night deadline to be before around 4pm on Friday Eastern (UTC-5) which is around midnight UTC+3, there might need to be an extension on night.

[davesaz]

Making the deadline later would not help much because it's already after... maybe a day at the most if the activity drop is longer than I'm guessing.
I'd recommend going by activity, if you see a bunch of people going 2 days without posting then consider pushing out a day.

[davesaz]

They say 3rd time's the charm, right? First it was me, then it was Clem...

VOTE: Egix96

So you follow the person you're voting onto someone who scumreads them?

[davesaz]

This will make a good test of the gamma tell I've been working on.

[davesaz]

I don't understand the Egix wagon at all. The "case" seemed like smoke and mirrors to me.
The game so far is definitely in Bambietta's scum range. There is just so much there that could go either way, I've been at a loss for how to proceed in scoring it.
Has Clemency done something towny that I'm not seeing. I still think that would make a fine lynch.

I'm gonna need to review stuff. Holiday activity has been enough to clear out most of my memory about the game other than what I've posted here.

[davesaz]

I would prefer to lynch either A50, bri, volxen over Bambi though at this point.

Can you explain why volxen is on this list? As far as I can tell you haven't mentioned volxen at all before this.

[davesaz]

Dunno why y’all don’t see scum clemency. I think egix is town.
VOTE: volxen
Look at the deadline.

[davesaz]

Slots I need to review:
bristep, Reaper, ChibiBear, Alonzo (ofrhz)

[davesaz]

Bristep townlean; Reaper medium scum; review continues.

[davesaz]

I expect my absence after voting Volxen will be a topic of discussion.
I saw the claim and counter, and decided my vote was in the right place and it would be antitown to interfere in any of the cop/doc planning discussion or draw attention to whether I thought any of the claims flying around were real or fake.
I was ready to bring things back on track if needed, but y'all made good choices.

Someone asked how you'd know which claim was the real one / challenged people on making that assumption. If the first player to claim is town, scum countering town is a huge mistake. Scum in that case are happy with knowing who the cop is, and either scatter to try to cause a no-lynch or go along with a wagon on some other town. What happened in this case, with town countering a scum fakeclaim, is the right move for the situation -- especially if the townie countering would be the next lynchee.

I've had to concentrate on work pretty hard the past 3 days so there hasn't been time to do much more than what I wrote in my last posts.

[davesaz]

To look for a bus we want very early on the wagon, or soon after the counter. It's too late at night to do that now. Making myself a note. Entirely possible no scum was on the lynch from a tactics point of view -- this is

not

stating a belief that everyone on the wagon is town though, just saying scum may not have been there.

[davesaz]

What's your reason for Egix vote?

[davesaz]

Wasnt Egix voting Volxen at some point yesterday?

Yes. What do you think it means about alignments?

[davesaz]

I don't know for sure Egix is town, I'm guessing by the fact that volx went there..

Did you look at merely who voted for whom, or more deeply at when?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Gamma

Not liking your voting patterns.

Yes, but what do you think of his posting patterns?

[davesaz]

It’s possible but I feel like the way it is written comes from someone who plain knows you are Town. I think the thing that gets to me is the past tense with little qualification.

From your perspective though, it should still make sense if I'm Alonzo's scumbuddy. So even if he has TMI, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm spewed town.
Besides, you can't really get meaningful spew from anyone unless they're dead scum.

Huh...? I thought he was trying to call me scum for pushing town. If it’s TMI, that makes you Town by him leaking info of your alignment.
And it’s not meaningful spew but I still think it’s a good way to look at people.

Convoluted balls of yarn like this usually mean Gamma is town in my past experience. This isn't necessarily good quality meta. I'd call it a weak read.

[davesaz]

It’s possible but I feel like the way it is written comes from someone who plain knows you are Town. I think the thing that gets to me is the past tense with little qualification.

From your perspective though, it should still make sense if I'm Alonzo's scumbuddy.
So even if he has TMI, it doesn't necessarily mean I'm spewed town.

Dangerous for scum to point this out, gives me minor townvibes.

Besides, you can't really get meaningful spew from anyone unless they're dead scum.

Well, you can get meaningful stuff from dead town too, but yeah proven alignments are more helpful than unproven.

What do you think of Alonzo's move here?

[davesaz]

Only thing would be to consider that Volxen put Egix at L-1 after it was clear DS was going to hammer having tried to do so already. Not saying it clears him but it's definitely something that leans me towards Dave rather than Egix. Also - Egix was on Volxen very early just like i was, literally 2 days into the game his vote was on Volxen, it shifted around but came back to Volx for the lynch. I don't think that scum would point at their buddy that early and consistently throughout the first phase (much like myself).

How closely did you look at Egix's trajectory through the day?
Wouldn't scum perhaps be on their partner early and often to distance?

[davesaz]

Reaper trips my "not really scumhunting" radar, but it's tainted by the understandable low activity due to family events.

[davesaz]

I think 3 votes is a little early to panic.

[davesaz]

I think town!A50 does that though, so it isn't especially scummy.

[davesaz]

I'm back from camping, but there is a fair amount of unloading, cleaning, getting lunch for the family, etc.
Alonzo is a good check. I had him as weak scum.

[davesaz]

Chibibear has done nothing since entering the game but play to past game with Gamma, and talk about how bad a player they are. If you notice they were always including Egix96 in the town reads before the inevitable. If you combine the two players, to me the read has only gotten more non town.

I'm utterly sick of you people complaining about me saying I'm a bad player ONCE WHEN I WAS FRUSTRATED, and I made like 2 posts talking to Gamma about past games, so you're outright misrepresenting things that I have said and done.

Hmm, let's see...

Reaper went on V/LA right when I replaced in so I have no impression of him whatsoever. I don't think I could have 'distanced' if I tried.


My play is inherently scummy because I'm a bad player. Stop focusing on me being a bad player and start considering if scum would gain anything from behaving as I have, that might actually get you somewhere.

I mean in my last game my top 3 scumreads all flipped town within the space of 48 hours. Which was actually pretty funny. That's why I'm trying to solve through POE instead, starting with town reads.

Btw you don't actually

know

that my reads are bad yet unless you're scum

I mean statistically speaking they probably are but still.

As I said before, reaper or dave. But I like gamma for now.
With my track record though it’s probably my only unconfirmed townreas Bri
But yeah I have negative 100 percent confidence in my reads so I really dunno.

There may have been other less blatant places where you discount your reads / game.

The issue I have with your posting is different. You're posting enough quantity, but I don't like it that you're including so little quality in those posts. Gut can only take you so far and then you need to have something analytical to point to. Your scumreads seem more like the "gotta have the right number of scumreads" category, instead of showing that you're looking at what people are doing and why they might be doing it.

[davesaz]

I did an ISO on bristep123 and saw several things to make him a town read. It had been unclear because earlier his posting had seemed a bit manipulative, but in retrospect those things look much better. I don't think it helps town at this point to go into too much detail.

[davesaz]

According to the potential Gamma tell I was working on before, it's coming up a big negative, as in not town. I would prefer not to explain in depth because he'd know what to do to fix it.
I think Gamma is our last scum on that meta. On top of that I'm seeing some things that are independently scummy.

He was a weak initial supporter of scumreads on Volxen and Egix, then late (2nd half) onto both wagons. He at one point called them as the team.
If you do some iso reading, you'll see that he has weak scumreads all over the place but never seems to really push any of them. This seems to me to be planting seeds for later -- to be able to say yeah I thought they were scummy but just now getting to pursuing it. It also feels like he lacks conviction, like he knows it's going to be hard to make a case so he'd rather see others do the lifting.

[davesaz]

Right now my course of action is to do some heavy reading.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

[davesaz]

I thought Egix was town D1 and thought there wasn't a case against him, plain and simple.

[davesaz]

@DS "analysis", think it's the 2nd thing he commented on.

I never lie about RL.
I had high blood pressure earlier in the year and replaced out of a couple games because I was worried I might have a stroke.
I do all the family related driving (my wife doesn't even have a license). Sorry if that takes priority over mafia.
I keep banks' data safe from disasters, and have to jump right on it if a problem is reported in my code. Sorry if that takes priority over mafia.

[davesaz]

Not a lot to go on for Volxen, but it feels more

looking town

than

being town

. Weak scumlean.

Reaper and DS are both content free.
That about covers the easy ones. I'm the type who prefers to complete something before tackling a bigger task.

Bambietta sure has a lot of posts, for having touted taking her foot off the gas a RL day ago or so.
I suspect that Clemency iso will be much more spam than substance, from inability to remember anything noteworthy. Though that could be inattention on my part, will see when I dig into it.

You don't want to comment on anything I've said? Even if it is limited? That's a strange mentality for a town person to have. I'd want to try and dissect what I could at least from my POV

That is a comment on what you've said. I don't see much of anything before your most recent post that I can use to sort you.
The way you're asking about my post is helpful though.

I dont think Dave has commented much on me after the whole Egix flip and my part in trying to hammer them. Interested to see what Dave thinks now.

I don't think scum would do the things you do.
I absolutely hate the way you play and would prefer not to see it again.

You might try saying a few things about what you think about other people’s posts. Do a good enough job and Powers can be used to find scum, a much better use than clearing.

Are you trying to coach me? Lmao

What a weird pocket strat

Nope, just expressing disdain over your attitude. Even a willingness to scumread you for it.

Scumread me for my attitude, again a no substance read.

Correct on the first point, incorrect on the 2nd. Attitude is substance.

Anyone want to take the assignment of looking at DS and seeing if there is any genuine solving there? Or even fake solving for that matter.

pawns off reading me to everyone else because at this point i was a lower poster

This is my way of telling other people that I scumread you at that point but I don't trust it to be accurate because your attitude interfered with being able to assign a motive to it.

86 posts and only 2-3 of them are tangentially related to game content.
VOTE: Clemency
My ok to yuk it up was not an ok to avoid doing anything all game.

voting the cop, townleaning the mafia

Nice try but at this point there has not been a claim, right?
I'm voting the person who wasn't scumhunting at all.
Post-game we can have a deeper discussion on how well that works for me.

They say 3rd time's the charm, right? First it was me, then it was Clem...

VOTE: Egix96

So you follow the person you're voting onto someone who scumreads them?

shades bambi for voting egix

A votes their scumread B. B votes C. A switches their vote to C without saying why. This would be shady anytime it happens. Pointing that out is a town thing to do. You seem to be a competent player so this should not be a surprise to you. The fact that this is how I play (which A50 knew) would of course escape you since you're not from around here.

I don't understand the Egix wagon at all. The "case" seemed like smoke and mirrors to me.
The game so far is definitely in Bambietta's scum range. There is just so much there that could go either way, I've been at a loss for how to proceed in scoring it.
Has Clemency done something towny that I'm not seeing. I still think that would make a fine lynch.

I'm gonna need to review stuff. Holiday activity has been enough to clear out most of my memory about the game other than what I've posted here.

defending mafia, shading the cop

I'll forgive you for this, but any moron can tell you that it's immaterial that a PR was shaded

before they were known to be a PR

Dunno why y’all don’t see scum clemency. I think egix is town.
VOTE: volxen
Look at the deadline.

Your conclusions are rubbish. You're welcome to suspect me because I was wrong on some reads, but you're paying no attention to motivations. If I were scum, why would I be the voter to push my buddy over the edge where he had to fakeclaim to try to get out of it? Nah, that's a town reaction to deadline approaching, having a solid case that nobody will listen to, and settling for someone that people are willing to lynch so we don't get a no-lynch. If you pay slightly more attention to what's going on you might notice this.

[davesaz]

I find it questionable dave voted me when he did, look into that

For timing, see 1291 for further info.
You know why I'm voting you, it's because I have a solid case that you're scum.

[davesaz]

It isn't all that hard to find.

[davesaz]

According to the potential Gamma tell I was working on before, it's coming up a big negative, as in not town. I would prefer not to explain in depth because he'd know what to do to fix it.
I think Gamma is our last scum on that meta. On top of that I'm seeing some things that are independently scummy.

He was a weak initial supporter of scumreads on Volxen and Egix, then late (2nd half) onto both wagons. He at one point called them as the team.
If you do some iso reading, you'll see that he has weak scumreads all over the place but never seems to really push any of them. This seems to me to be planting seeds for later -- to be able to say yeah I thought they were scummy but just now getting to pursuing it. It also feels like he lacks conviction, like he knows it's going to be hard to make a case so he'd rather see others do the lifting.

[davesaz]

When you know how to read someone, telling them what they're doing wrong is a bad idea.

[davesaz]

Rather than the currently secret tell, let's discuss something a bit less specific but still easy to see.
Please demonstrate a place in the game where Gamma has taken overt action to determine someone's alignment.

Pedit: I'll think a bit on that belligerant vs jovial angle. In the meantime maybe I can use a similar method to describe what I'm seeing.

My observation is that town!Gamma is speculative while scum!Gamma is subdued. The actual tell is more specific than that, but this gets you part of the way.

[davesaz]

Well crap, the tell I'm working on might not be accurate. Remains to be seen whether it's better than random.

@Bambietta, what if DS is in the same position here that your alter ego held in Masons & Monks?
I don't think DS is "clear" by actions. MS conventions might not apply to his play for one thing.
I think town is more likely than scum but it's far from lock.

[davesaz]

I haven't looked closely enough or remember whether things were inevitable at the point DS joined in, or if he led one or both charges.

[davesaz]

Looking solely at the VC's posted by the mod, DS was L-1 on egix but off the final wagon, and the only other prominent wagon place was hammering Gamma.
That's the easy thing to check. Today is a potentially painful day in RL for me, unknown atm if I'll be able to look between the VCs.
On the surface, killing his buds was just a show thing and not real. Which is what I'm referring to when I say MS norms may not apply.

I think it's important to be sure the possibilities are covered. Most likely it's just Reaper but if we're wrong the survivors of tomorrow need something better than lynching me for the loss.

[davesaz]

There's no world here in which I'm scum. As Bambi is saying, pushing on and placing votes on the scum this game at the times I did would have been essentially game throwing in this setup.

The fact that people think it would be game throwing is what makes it not game throwing. This site's population is captured by the idea that there are certain things that scum can't do, and the collective memory is way too short on the times that they do it against that grain.

It also worries me that you twist what I say. Scum is Reaper. If not Reaper it's you. That's the only possible conclusion from my point of view, other than perhaps to think you're more likely scum than Reaper which I don't.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Reaper

VLA for 14 days. That's right, I won't be posting in this game again.

[davesaz]

Well crap, the tell I'm working on might not be accurate. Remains to be seen whether it's better than random.

@Bambietta, what if DS is in the same position here that your alter ego held in Masons & Monks?
I don't think DS is "clear" by actions. MS conventions might not apply to his play for one thing.

I think town is more likely than scum but it's far from lock.

There's no world here in which I'm scum. As Bambi is saying, pushing on and placing votes on the scum this game at the times I did would have been essentially game throwing in this setup.

The fact that people think it would be game throwing is what makes it not game throwing. This site's population is captured by the idea that there are certain things that scum can't do, and the collective memory is way too short on the times that they do it against that grain.

It also worries me that you twist what I say. Scum is Reaper. If not Reaper it's you. That's the only possible conclusion from my point of view, other than perhaps to think you're more likely scum than Reaper which I don't.

I had the right answer and nobody would listen. The two conf were hell bent on believing that double fail hammers made DS lock town. At that point it becomes pointless to continue posting. Correct play was follow the flipped town and lynch Reaper and then DS.

Re the "V/LA", I won't self hammer as town or replace out for anything short of RL danger. That was my "you guys are starting to piss me off so I'm gone before I get myself into unhealthy state of mind" post.

Still, well played by DS. I'm going to have to change my stance on people pushing me late game, that's twice that an OMGUS position of suspecting the attacker might have been winning for town.