Open 741: Red Flag [Endgame]

[mastina]

So to get a few things out of the way:

1. I thought there was a good 70% chance (give or take 5%) that I was replacing into a scum slot. I expect to be lynched this game. (Even if said lynch is the game-ending mislynch.) Granted, Firebringer left (which is a shame since I was gonna outright encourage him to lynch me), but still something probably gonna happen.
   
2. I have a poor track record with White Flag games. This is a variant, but all the same it is a setup I do terribly in.
   
3. I signed up for this game as a replacement more or less because,
   1. I finally, FINALLY, a month later, was getting over my sickness. (And with my Vitamin B12 deficiency treated, a problem for the last 4 months by now, am on the road to a full honest to god recovery.)
      
   2. I needed to play
      something
      .
      
   3. This was literally the only game which advertised a need for replacements. Other games are in signups, sure, but those games would start much, much later.
4. As a result of this, I have a general lack of interest in tryharding this game.
   
   I still intend to put in the "appropriate amount" of effort, but I mean that in the sense of, I will be posting as often as I can (most, but not every, days), contributing content during those times, and will talk...
   
   ...But I won't be reading all 43 pages; this is a low-key effort at best.

Partially, that approach is because I don't even know if I'm living yet (I'm typing this out during the night), but if I do, well then.

I would think my survival would generally point to players that know me being slightly more likely to be scum and players who don't know me being slightly less likely to be scum.

That also happens to overlap with some trash-tier, surface-level, quick one-minute VCA done of yesterday, where I basically just took a single look and had gut sorting done.
Subject: Open 741: Red Flag [Night 1]

Votecount 1.FINAL

AnonymousGhost (2):

Aster 297, Gamma Emerald 311

Springtrap (7):

Firebringer 442, pinturicchio 776, ceejayvinoya 927, Nibbui 1039, Blackjacks 1053, Clemency 1054, Keyser Söze 1056

Blackjacks (1):

Volxen 709

Aster (1):

AnonymousGhost 867

Keyser Söze (1):

RadiantCowbells 887

I know that this was near deadline, but not quite close enough where I'd call it a deadline flash-lynch.
It was, however, a flash-lynch sinze the wagon went from 3 to lynch overnight.
Prior to that, there were no significant wagons pretty much so scum flashwagoning town to avoid lynching a scumbuddy is definitely not what happened.

So my flash-analysis of the situation:
At MOST, two scum on the wagon; AT LEAST two scum off.
If scum are on the wagon, they'd be in the first three names most likely (although there's an outside chance one straggler would be late on the wagon).
So that made me first think that scum were mostly off.

My thought was then that AnonymousGhost was probably scum, Aster was probably scum, Gamma Emerald was a scum candidate, and RC had a fair chance of being scum.

In particular, I thought it strange that RC was on a vanity wagon; why was he there, with no support?

And that's as much as I got typed out during the night.
So now we get this.
VOTE: AnonymousGhost.
HURT: RadiantCowbells.
HURT WITH A BLADE: Aster.

IGMEOU: Gamma Emerald

.

[mastina]

I'd also particularly like to ask RC.
Why'd you not get support yesterday?

[mastina]

(Reading in reverse order from 43 to 40 tho. Gotta say I'm quite happy in particular with the AnonymousGhost, Aster, and Gamma scumteam.
RC is a suspect to me primarily because of burden of proficiency in that he'd be the player I'd most trust to be able to read AnonymousGhost and if AnonymousGhost is in fact scum then it'd be suspect he didn't see it, combined with the aforementioned lack of RC-being-sheeped factor that I'd expect of him.)

[mastina]

It’s interesting you mentioned your own survival through the night but didn’t mention anything about waiting to scumhunt post-flip.

That went without saying in that there was no content that was based around the nightkill?

Basically, any of the four players I fingered being the nightkill would have changed my initial assumption on the gamestate--had that happened, I'd have needed to adjust.

It did not.

And thus I need say nothing.
I said what was the case. I suspected AnonymousGhost most strongly, followed closely by Aster and by proxy of conditions, RC, with outside chance of Gamma. None of them died, so I had no reason to alter anything off of the results of the night.

And what you see is what you get, too.
There's no deeper meaning behind my reads. It is exactly what I said it was. Trash-tier VCA, where I make snap decisions in an instant off of gut feeling, but it's what I feel like. Got a problem with that, then lynch me because this isn't changing. I was expecting your slot to park their vote on me the entire time anyway.

[mastina]

I can even narrow down the written down in advance part:

Spoiler: This part was written in advance

So to get a few things out of the way:

1. I thought there was a good 70% chance (give or take 5%) that I was replacing into a scum slot. I expect to be lynched this game. (Even if said lynch is the game-ending mislynch.) Granted, Firebringer left (which is a shame since I was gonna outright encourage him to lynch me), but still something probably gonna happen.
   
2. I have a poor track record with White Flag games. This is a variant, but all the same it is a setup I do terribly in.
   
3. I signed up for this game as a replacement more or less because,
   1. I finally, FINALLY, a month later, was getting over my sickness. (And with my Vitamin B12 deficiency treated, a problem for the last 4 months by now, am on the road to a full honest to god recovery.)
      
   2. I needed to play
      something
      .
      
   3. This was literally the only game which advertised a need for replacements. Other games are in signups, sure, but those games would start much, much later.
4. As a result of this, I have a general lack of interest in tryharding this game.
   
   I still intend to put in the "appropriate amount" of effort, but I mean that in the sense of, I will be posting as often as I can (most, but not every, days), contributing content during those times, and will talk...
   
   ...But I won't be reading all 43 pages; this is a low-key effort at best.

Partially, that approach is because I don't even know if I'm living yet (I'm typing this out during the night), but if I do, well then.

I would think my survival would generally point to players that know me being slightly more likely to be scum and players who don't know me being slightly less likely to be scum.

That also happens to overlap with some trash-tier, surface-level, quick one-minute VCA done of yesterday, where I basically just took a single look and had gut sorting done.
Subject: Open 741: Red Flag [Night 1]

Votecount 1.FINAL

AnonymousGhost (2):

Aster 297, Gamma Emerald 311

Springtrap (7):

Firebringer 442, pinturicchio 776, ceejayvinoya 927, Nibbui 1039, Blackjacks 1053, Clemency 1054, Keyser Söze 1056

Blackjacks (1):

Volxen 709

Aster (1):

AnonymousGhost 867

Keyser Söze (1):

RadiantCowbells 887

I know that this was near deadline, but not quite close enough where I'd call it a deadline flash-lynch.
It was, however, a flash-lynch sinze the wagon went from 3 to lynch overnight.
Prior to that, there were no significant wagons pretty much so scum flashwagoning town to avoid lynching a scumbuddy is definitely not what happened.

So my flash-analysis of the situation:
At MOST, two scum on the wagon; AT LEAST two scum off.
If scum are on the wagon, they'd be in the first three names most likely (although there's an outside chance one straggler would be late on the wagon).
So that made me first think that scum were mostly off.

My thought was then that AnonymousGhost was probably scum, Aster was probably scum, Gamma Emerald was a scum candidate, and RC had a fair chance of being scum.

In particular, I thought it strange that RC was on a vanity wagon; why was he there, with no support?

And that's as much as I got typed out during the night.

So now we get this.
VOTE: AnonymousGhost.
HURT: RadiantCowbells.
HURT WITH A BLADE: Aster.

IGMEOU: Gamma Emerald

.

The part in spoilers, I typed out in notepad.
The part not in spoilers was added after the nightkill.
I'd know because I wrote it all today, after I got home from work, about 7 hours ago. Of course, the part I wrote out in advance did take from something prior, that being, a PM I sent to northsidegal, but I'm fairly certain that if I actually quoted that it'd be modkill-worthy, so. You can ask me to paraphrase that but otherwise it's a "take my word for it" on me having done.

[mastina]

Riiiiight, which is all fine and dandy but you did plug that you didn’t know if you were going to die which felt really forced.

And if I did die, then that typed out message verbatim would be posted to the dead thread since I know northsidegal makes them in all games she mods. I wanted it written out as proof that, yes, I did have the reads which I would then claim to have had, for better or more likely for worse.

Is your RC read contingent on your other reads being correct?

No, which you'd know if you had actually read my fucking post.
It is

half

contingent on the read being correct.
The other half is based around how RC is normally a force to be reckoned with. People sheep him overwhelmingly, except...in this game, he was a vanity voter? That is incredibly out of character of what I know of him as town, but the kind of chaos that I'd expect him to sew as scum.

Of course that being said.
He should probably in hindsight be switched with Gamma in my suspicion order, as the weakest of the four scumreads.

[mastina]

Are you a mastin alt?

No, mastin is me. This is my main account. mastina is the name I go by now. I've retired the mastin2 account for well over a year now--almost two, in fact.

[mastina]

Ah, well I don’t know if you remember but it’s Slaxx.

Long time no see!
Pleasure to work with you.

And I literally always scumread you. I still have a slight scumread on your predecessor but now that I know who you are I’m pretty much back to where I was before you started posting.

Well I had considerably more than a slight scumread on my predecessor so I do mean it when I say go ahead lynch me, won't fight that, but when you do at least work with me with my reads here.

Gamma's treatment of Aster looks like his distancing-from-scumbuddy tactic (which I have a fair amount of familiarity with).
All-in-all, when I was reading the last three pages (four, now), I overall just got the impression that the interactions between those three (Aster, AnonymousGhost, Gamma Emerald) was just gigantic scum theater. Not exactly choreographed, not exactly strategic, but still ungenuine.

[mastina]

Actually during the period in the game where I had a coherent direction I was in fact pushing stuff and getting sheeped and if you read the game you'd know that.

The closest I found was this:

Votecount 1.11

Blackjacks (4):

Keyser Söze 635, RadiantCowbells 666, Volxen 709, ceejayvinoya 710

Which I'd accept as you being pushing stuff and getting sheeped yet ultimately fading out if you faded out, if that was where your vote was at end of day.

...But it wasn't; you shifted your vote to Keyser Soze, and I'd expect that if you were getting sheeped that that wagon would have gotten larger than two votes, but it never did.

Mastina is town

While I am, I'm not gonna accept that just as an empty callout; walk me through that statement.

[mastina]

What scumteam doesn't kill me last night

A scumteam with you on it?

[mastina]

You haven't read my posts beyond the votecount.

True enough! I will readily admit that.

I still expect things of you in spite of that.

Gamma's treatment of Aster looks like his distancing-from-scumbuddy tactic (which I have a fair amount of familiarity with).
All-in-all, when I was reading the last three pages (four, now), I overall just got the impression that the interactions between those three (Aster, AnonymousGhost, Gamma Emerald) was just gigantic scum theater. Not exactly choreographed, not exactly strategic, but still ungenuine.

any specific posts?

I can do better than that, even.

Gamma did not jump off from the wagon on scum when he could.

When Gamma commits to a bus, he often stays on the wagon for a long period of time. This actually should be concerning given that when Gamma is town he tends to move his vote around a bit more. You should look at how Gamma treats texcat and Golden Robster in NY213.

When presented with two EoD wagons, one on a scumbuddy (Whemestar) and one on town (incidentally, PenguinPower), Gamma opts to bus:

and a game I self hammered as doctor because I was frustrated that people didn’t believe my claim because I didn’t claim flavor?

Get your bs out of here

So when your frustrated as town you care about what happens after you get lynched? When your not frustrated all you care about is surviving?

mhm thinking about it it's actually very similar to his first newbie and yet he's playing different
nah fuck dis s*** I think wheme is actually scum
VOTE: Whemestar

During a CFD, Gamma joins a Texcat wagon here:

VOTE: texcat
eh after a mite of meta I think tex has a decent chance of being scum

and stays on it despite there being two other potential end of day wagons.

and in a later dayphases busses here:

VOTE: Golden Robster
I don't understand people backing off of this, why, because he gave up and self-voted? That's a pot of WiFoM and you know it.

and stays on it until he is lynched.

Gamma in that game bussed literally everyone on his scum team at some point (he also bussed Wheme), and did so in two situations where there were serious other wagons presented for the days lynch.

That is to say, thinking that Gamma will not bus consistently and bus early as scum is misguided.

In fact I think the reason Gamma *moved off Penguin* is precisely because *we were going to jail Gamma*. This is the point at which Gamma had to *stop his bus*. And that's why his vote on Mew makes no sense from a town PoV and is for nonsensical reasons. *He had to get off Penguin because if Penguin got lynched and he was jailed and investigated, he was losing the game*.

I am willing to vote DVA at the moment.

b) Gamma bussed a lot

Frankly it is way more plausible that Gamma would move from bus to bus because Gamma knew who the scum team were and could play toward a strategy of cross-bussing. I could not do that because I did not know who the scum were.

Actually that kinda reminds me, the way Gamma distances from DDL+PP here is very similar to how Gamma busses Wheme and Texcat in the posts I quoted earlier. I think it's a weird tic for Gamma that when he busses or distances he very frequently relies on unexplained meta arguments.

Gamma where are you on PenguinGifs, Sephora, and BearAvatar?

PenguinGifs would like to see more of, for some reason want to say Town
Sephora Idk
BearAvatar I don’t find anything particularly town indicative from them and I feel like that’s a bit scum!odd, though that’s based on meta that could be wrong

here's 2 of me doing nothing all game
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=77301
viewtopic.php?f=83&t=77250

Don’t think those games count, they’re too abridged to be reliable meta

What makes you think my vote isn’t serious

Apart from my love of gifs, why is your vote serious?

The meta point against you felt semi-valid, plus you reacted like typical caught scum when you saw that point (hence why the gifs/pics are a scum thing)

Yea I did. The thing that swayed me was the gifs. And they may be NAI normally but the timing tells me something else.

What does the timing tell you? I've been using them since post one.

You have been using them since post one but they were sprinkled in. After the meta point it was a rush of gifs.

That is, as scum, Gamma tends to bus and distance his scumbuddies through underexplained "meta" discussions. 342 is the closest he gets to substance and even then he barely scratches the surface. This kinda gives me the sense that Gamma will, as scum, use meta arguments to give the impression that he is thinking about a player slot beyond the context of just this game, but since he already knows their alignment and actually reading those games would be pointless and boring, he can't really engage in a substantive discussion of the points involved or really explain his reasoning in detail.

DVa lays out the pattern I'm talking about pretty clearly right there, not only giving some examples from past games, but now also with that game as proof because DVa was in fact correct.

Now look at these and tell me you don't see similar:

I dont know what part of this game to take seriously anymore. I dont think that's a good sign.

Thoughts on the current wagons?

I will answer this again when the votecount is updated, but all I'm seeing right now is mainly filler and fluff in a game where we should probably be more worried. You know, since 4 of us are evil out of 13 (or 15, I guess, if we count the accounts with multiple people).

I'll wait until later for more critical judgement, and mostly so I can see what is purely friendship and what is attempted buddying.

Get well soon, cos deadline approaches and finding a bridge between my thinking and the group think would be nice

So the post above seemed a little like a scumslip with the "since 4 of us are evilt out of 13", but mostly my scumread on Spring is his reluctancy to provide anything to the game at all. The thing he has most said in the thread is "I will provide something something tomorrow", but nothing ever comes. It's not like he wasn't here: he made some jokes when everybody was doing that, but when the game got serious, he disappeared. My townreads are pushing him, so I'm happy being part of that wagon too.

But with my tinfoil hat on, the whole interaction between the spookycat and Springtrap seemed to be the cat throwing a lifebelt to Spring: Spring needed some content, and the cat started making some questions that seemed forced. So yeah, my attention is on both players right now.

Point me those questions-ward if possible?

(If I am wrong about my current four top scumreads, pint would be one of the main suspects from wagon positioning.)

you sounded like you were trying to defend the way you were interacting with me

(This is a highlight point of the AnonymousGhost interactions with Gamma.)

Damage is done, you're not changing my mind about how that interaction went down

(And here's another.)

VOTE: AnonymousGhost
I actually think I'm gonna trust my gut here. The way they poked at me felt like they were trying to make me look bad.

oh and my vote was already there, how delightful
that increases the scumminess of what they've been doing

(And another, and another.)

I don't, that's why I'm asking
I don't like the way you're asking these questions btw

(And more.)

That's not even all of the interaction, and that's only it from Gamma's side, the side the strong meta comes from.
It is just as suspect from the AnonymousGhost side of things.

Altogether the interaction between those three just looks like distancing/bussing rather than genuine gamesolving.

[mastina]

I'd know because I wrote it all today, after I got home from work, about 7 hours ago. Of course, the part I wrote out in advance did take from something prior, that being, a PM I sent to northsidegal, but I'm fairly certain that if I actually quoted that it'd be modkill-worthy, so. You can ask me to paraphrase that but otherwise it's a "take my word for it" on me having done.

Please paraphrase. It's interesting.

"So I know Springtrap was a flashwagon, with no real wagons prior to the day-end votecount. By gut, would say those that joined the wagon after it exploded are above random odds for being town. The first three can be of any alignment tho.
Still, those off the wagon are where I'm focusing.

Why wasn't RC sheeped?

AnonymousGhost seems like another candidate, as does Aster.
So my first places I'd look are AnonymousGhost, RC, Aster, Gamma Emerald in about that order.
I'd look at Firebringer after that.

Of course.
This flash-VCA is doubtfully accurate, but is better than nothing."

That was about it, which as you can tell, is pretty much what I ended up posting at daystart.
Since then, my suspicion on the Firebringer slot has been replaced with pint; RC and Gamma have switched positions.

I'd be willing to bet with a fair amount of confidence:
Blackjacks is town,
Lolwagons is town,
Clemecy is town,
In about that order.

I haven't seen anything from ceejayvinoya to make an alignment call there; if

anyone

late on the wagon is scum, the only one who could be it is Keyser Soze (because there was a chance however remote that if Keyser didn't hammer Springtrap that he would be lynched giving potential scum incentive there), so both of those are players I'm not yet able to confidently call town, even though I do not believe them to be scum.

So that gives you a rough readslist of where I'm at.

Blackjacks
Lolwagons
Clemency

ceejayvinoya
Keyser Soze (these two may be reversed, or interchangeable even, hard to say)

pint

RadiantCowbells

Aster (

almost

interchangeable with the two below, but

not quite

as strong)
Gamma Emerald
AnonymousGhost (honestly these two are interchangeable)

[mastina]

Theory test time.

MEME MEN: yikes. This one lied about meta with me. That’s a solid scum marker.

vote: THE MEME MEN

As I seem to recall, Meme Men's slot is AnonymousGhost, yes?
+3 AnonymousGhost.

Apologies for the absence btw, ended up napping inadvertently.

God that post by Blackjacks is cringey

No it isn't. Is it a mafiascum.net tradition to insult somebody's sense of humour on day 1 or something?

No. Why do you not think it’s just a little bit overwrought?

So, any thoughts on anyone’s alignment?

Unadulterated LAMIST question. I feel Gamma has stepped way too hard on the game-solve gas pedal here (in a unnatural / forced way)
VOTE: Gamma Emerald

Nice double standard jackass.

“Jackass”?! Ok, accepted.

“Double standard”? Nope.
Your question and my vote are different Mr Gamma.

Im more talking about you voting me for the exact opposite reason of American Presidents. What do you expect from me? And don’t try to talk about “I thought that was the norm” because you know I’ve tryharded as town before (maybe, don’t remember our exact meta).
This doesn’t make you scum btw, it just upsets me.

+1 Aster, Keyser.

Right Head has it right. I think I’ll trust the hydra partner when they say Left Head is out of it.

Unvote

By unvoting here you mean that he forgetting about you was the unique reason you voted him? You said you did tryhard as town but doesn't seem to have noticed or get interested in the two suspiscious posts by MEMEMAN?

Yeah that was my reason. I skimmed over that part of your post, because I was just like “hm they’re scumreading MEME MEN too, that’s nice
I’ll look it over

+1 AnonymousGhost.

Im more talking about you voting me for the exact opposite reason of American Presidents. What do you expect from me? And don’t try to talk about “I thought that was the norm” because you know I’ve tryharded as town before (maybe, don’t remember our exact meta).
This doesn’t make you scum btw, it just upsets me.

Interesting mention RE: American Presidents. Perhaps it would have been more strategic for scum-Gamma coming into this game imitating the ‘lack of drive’ demonstrated by town-Gamma in that game. I did not mean to upset you, my paranoia-feels are real and I wanted to call it out:
- also echoed by your subsequent RQS analysis

What is echoed by that analysis?

Not quite sure if this counts so I'll just give it a +.5 for Keyser.

@Gamma
Are you comfortable with MEME’s town read of you?

I wasn’t aware that was a townread, seemed more like a jab with no real thoughts on my alignment?

Not a plus for Keyser, but definitively a +1 for AnonymousGhost.

pedit: ok calling them bland answers is a little insulting. "regular answers," then
-LH

Pintu’s #3 was interesting.

This would count as a +1 for pint.

THE MEME MEN's answers

It took LH@THE MEME MEN almost two days to answer my questions, and what did we get out of it?

A glorious exercise in beating-around-the-bush

. Let me walk you through his post.

I dont do rvs anymore, i personally jump straight to business like james doakes and penguinpower do.

✓ Statement does not answer the question.

THE MEME MEN told us to be careful voting during RVS, so I asked him whether he thought RVS was bad. "I don't RVS myself" does not answer the question, which clearly intended to ask whether he thought RVS shouldn't happen at all; what does he think about other players RVSing?

players using words when they're sure, or not using words - it depends on the context like what they're trying to attain - whether reaction testing or whatever

✓ Skips one question.
✓ Doesn't answer the other.

The main question was whether players shouldn't vote lightly. A subquestion asked about the alternative of "using only words without voting". Yet he answers like the question was "Are words bad?"

look at Herebus with the 14 player large normal, moderated by Krazy. that had 4 scum.

✓ Cites anecdotal evidence.
✓ Cited evidence does not support his point.

Herebus day one had only two out of four scum on the lynchwagon, which is completely average since over half the town was on the lynchwagon. If anything, Herebus demonstrates that the scum will not collectively jump on the lynchwagon merely because they can.

Yes, they did collectively jump on the lynchwagon at LyLo, and that's completely beyond the point. Of course mafia would collectively quickhammer a LyLo wagon when they can. The real issue is about whether mafia will try to collectively quickhammer during early game.

---

Going Deeper

There is something about these answers. It seems that THE MEME MEN are unwilling to answer questions with "yes" or "no" and are instead trying to write something that resembles an answer but actually isn't. I get the impression that they hope my questions will just disappear, which is further corroborated by LH taking his sweet time to answer my questions while RH avoided looking like a lurker; he could've been trying to just stall things hoping town's attention shifts elsewhere in the meanwhile.

Now, if THE MEME MEN were town, why do they need to avoid answering questions? If he believed in his opinions, he could've confidently presented them; they weren't scum opinions at any rate. Alternatively he could have realized and admitted that although he hadn't thought things through, he made his suggestion in good faith.

On the other hand, if THE MEME MAN is scum, this behaviour makes a whole lotta sense. He clearly cannot confidently present his opinion because he knows it is a scum opinion and/or doesn't even believe it himself. He can't find another presentable opinion that doesn't make him look stupid. He doesn't admit that he hadn't thought things through because I said earlier that I expected town to crusade that his opinion is right, and certainly he doesn't want to look like folding scum. Stuck with a no-win situation, he tries to make things go away by stalling and beating around the bush.

Tl;dr:

THE MEME MEN opened the game with a LAMIST suggestion. I think his suggestion was unlikely to have been made in good faith. THE MEME MEN are scared to talk about their opinions leading to their suggestion.

VOTE: THE MEME MEN

God this was amazing. This is the good side of wallposting.

Vote: THE MEME MEN

I'm not sure how many points this would be, but it's at least a minimum of +2 AnonymousGhost. (I'll be conservative here.)

Ok let's try this again, since it's starting to look like a death tunnel from scum.

Glad you're responding. Can you please answer the following questions?
Do you know what RVS is?

yes, a stage where many players claim to joke vote . Yet the votes get counted

Do you think RVS is a bad thing?

bad as in people making joke votes then later complaining about fluff posting or inactivity - then yes it's bad

Is it a bad thing for players to generally have votes standing to indicate who they are most suspicious of, or to exert pressure?

nope. Why would you ask this question?

Would it be better if players only used words to communicate and only placed their votes when they were sure they wanted a lynch?

if only words or votes, sure, votes would be better

Do you believe mafia will actually try to collectively quicklynch a bandwagon provided they can get three townie votes?

yes, and the post should've been clear as day. ceejay understood it, for instance

Beginning to disagree with RH's tr of you. We'll get together later to discuss.
The way aster is projecting what HE did in a past game onto us, looks scummy. Anyone see the micro game with okapoka and saudade scum? Aster resembling the former.
-LH

What, DDU? That’s a very strange mention I feel. Also gives a significant pointer of who you might be. Also I don’t really see any projecting.

Definitively a +1 AnonymousGhost here.

blackjack/Firebringer are scum together
volxen is town
aster is town
nibbul is town
ceejay +equity town

why do u think i am scum?

you correctly called blackjack scum in your sole serious scumread of the game then went back to a cutesy memewagon on obvtown
also I'm pretty sure you never make that post about sheeping me as town
If I'm wrong you're welcome to prove me wrong,

I know some of you don't know RC that well
but this is scum RC
the only other explanation is that he started using drugs
RC, IF YOU HAVE TAKEN UP DRUGS, SEEK AN INTERVENTION NOW
-rh

WHAT.

+1 AnonymousGhost.

Also I would expect to be catching more attention for one of my recent posts.

Almost wanted to call the previous post a +1 Aster, but paired with this I definitely am.

Catching up with the thread I think I may have miss-read your soft/victim/vulnerable vibe

Explain when and why you got that vibe? I don’t feel like I’ve been playing that way at all.

Really?
Sensitive overreaction/sensitive:

"Nice double standard jackass"
"it just upsets me."
"What a welcoming bunch."

Self-focus softness:

"What do you expect from me?"
"Pretty sure I put significant effort in during the Tit For Tat we were in"
"Eh? What’s this about? What’s the relationship between me and that gif to you?"
"I very much dislike the case on me, but all I’ve been able to pick out for why comes back to OMGUS."
"Explain when and why you got that vibe? I don’t feel like I’ve been playing that way at all."

( )

Why be on the defensive foot?:

"Also I would expect to be catching more attention for one of my recent posts."
"Does no one want to engage me even when I provide a general reason to?"
"Thought more people would poke me for admitting to being OMGUSy."

I presume this one was not serious though (?):

Are you gonna seriously just stonewall me when I’m trying to have a real discussion

Some of these just don't make sense. How is me saying I thought something I said would provoke people be defensive? I'm also gonna need an explanation for self-focus softness, because that doesn't really mean anything yet, it's just gibberish. And what? You think my post where I said I was trying to have real discussion was NOT serious? This reads extreeeeeemely fake and crammed into a narrative but I get the feeling this is from ignorance, not malice.

I'm going to call this one a +1 Keyser.

notably i cannot read ceejay and my townread there is somewhat lazy

as it stands my reads are

{RC}
{Pinturicchio, Nibbuls, Aster}
{Blackjacks, Volxen}
{ceejay, gamma, clemency, anonygo}
-null line- {firebringer}
then with {keyser, springtrap} as actual scumreads

I kinda felt like you’d have more scumreads?

This section would be a +1 RC.

I'm kinda tired tho and losing coherency so I know I am handling this inconsistently, either giving points to things that shouldn't be given points or not giving points to everything which should have points (in other words, in the middle when this is something where you want to be on one of the extremes for), but altogether what I saw from this iso is VERY strong evidence for a Gamma-Ghost scumteam. Others have some evidence, like potentially Keyser; Aster; etc. But by far the most obvious would be Gamma Emerald and AnonymousGhost.

[mastina]

Having isoed both Meme and Anonymous can say that my scumread on the slot separate from Gamma interactions has grown stronger as both holders of it tripped gut scumtells on overall vibe. Wouldn't really be able to point to anything from either of them, because I was scrolling and just thinking, which alignment would this be more likely to be from, and overwhelmingly? "Yep. Scum."

So AnonymousGhost and Gamma Emerald are lockscum of lockscum for me off of both interactions with each other and off of general vibe from their isos from their total contribution across the game.

Lynching anyone other than one of those two would be doing an incredible disservice to the game.

[mastina]

Btw.

This post here and their other ones similar to it feel different then when Blackjack also did the same. It just feels... Very messy and just mentioning "Lurker" a large amount of the time for nearly all of them. When Aster did this, it felt more like instead of townreading or scumreading, it was a critique in general. Which I think would be easier to do as either alignment, instead of just town.
It also seems weird to go through 1 "Non-Lurker" in that they completely disagreed with most of what they've done. Again, more critique then a read. Just "wary".

I am also a proponent of the lynched player potentially having good reads, and this stuck out to me immediately.
(Not to discard the nightkill, by the way--haven't done a full iso there but I did particularly note that Yuurei as I knew the account holder as, is particularly competent but prone to reevaluating things that shouldn't have been reevaluated, and had fingered quite heavily Gamma I believe it was? Or was it Meme? Or was it both? Butyeah, that didn't escape my notice and I'll get to it in due time.)

So... It's in town's best interest to not scumhunt day 1 but instead get the weakest link? That Seems counterproductive.

This was to AnonymousGhost.

By the way, I skipped the first discussion 'cause it seemed too early to be serious, but I'll read it now since, as I understand, it was serious for some players.

In other news, I didn't like BJs' entrance. The post was fine, I laughed, but seems like it was prepared before the game started. My problema with that is that it was a huge post and it's obvious that took a lot of effort. I tend to scumread people who puts that much of an effort on RVS; preparing a post before the game starts is past that line. Does someone else has another point of view about this?

Wouldn't it make more sense to call Gamma out for the RQS post for being pretty big and before the game even started? He put more effort in, IMO.

Ooh I love this nugget.

There's also the RC stuff, too, but this is not the way that a scumteam spearheaded by RC would lynch someone suspicious of him so I'm disregarding that. (Mind you--that doesn't mean "RC is not scum"; it means "RC did not spearhead the lynch of that player for being suspicious of him". Which reduces his odds of being scum, but does not in any way eliminate them altogether.)

[mastina]

that said, both #52 from gamma and #88 from MEMEMAN looks lamist
VOTE: Aster
Gamma might have sounded lamist, but I think MEMEMAN was even worse in these two posts:

Spoiler:

Curious to see what happens when the worst meets Radiant Cowbells

weird - for 2 players that have been onsite for so long, I would think they'd have bumped into each other
-LH

^ kinda cherrypicking in my opinion

Spoiler:

All this talk about jesters - you guys sure you're in the right game and not in Jester Nightless by Jingle, instead? lol
Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote? Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.

^ kinda really lamist if I compare him here to a Micro I saw him playing
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
and Aster seemed to realize how the post seemed a bit off here:

Spoiler:

Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote? Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.

✓ Statement meant to look townish;
✓ Statement not actually helpful.

However, she didn't change votes or got much interested on MEME MAN even though his posts seems way worse than Gamma's I would say (we can argue about that), and the same can be said to Keyser maybe.[/quote]Jesus Christ this is probably one of the best D1 opening posts of all time and singlehandedly would justify the nightkill if I am even remotely right on my reads.

I don't need all four to be right.
I don't even need all three of the big ones to be right!

If so much as 2/3 of Gamma/Meme/Aster are scum, this post alone would explain the nightkill.

[mastina]

MOD: Please delete the prior 1123 due to site breakage. Here it is again, hopefully fixed:

that said, both #52 from gamma and #88 from MEMEMAN looks lamist
VOTE: Aster
Gamma might have sounded lamist, but I think MEMEMAN was even worse in these two posts:

Curious to see what happens when the worst meets Radiant Cowbells

weird - for 2 players that have been onsite for so long, I would think they'd have bumped into each other
-LH

^ kinda cherrypicking in my opinion

All this talk about jesters - you guys sure you're in the right game and not in Jester Nightless by Jingle, instead? lol
Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote? Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.^ kinda really lamist if I compare him here to a Micro I saw him playing
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
and Aster seemed to realize how the post seemed a bit off here:

Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote? Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.

✓ Statement meant to look townish;
✓ Statement not actually helpful.

However, she didn't change votes or got much interested on MEME MAN even though his posts seems way worse than Gamma's I would say (we can argue about that), and the same can be said to Keyser maybe.

Jesus Christ this is probably one of the best D1 opening posts of all time and singlehandedly would justify the nightkill if I am even remotely right on my reads.

I don't need all four to be right.
I don't even need all three of the big ones to be right!

If so much as 2/3 of Gamma/Meme/Aster are scum, this post alone would explain the nightkill.

[mastina]

(The only change is that I removed the spoiler tags, which were formatted in a way which

looks

like for all intents and purposes it shouldn't break...but for some ungodly reason, did. By removing them, I removed the issue, but that will permanently affect the entire rest of my iso, as well as the iso of anyone who quotes it, so I'd prefer it just be removed and save everyone the headache.)

[mastina]

MEME MEN: yikes. This one lied about meta with me. That’s a solid scum marker.

vote: THE MEME MEN

Where did he lie about meta? I double checked his ISO and didn't see him commenting about meta anywhere

Btw, this fits Gamma's scum meta of...ironically, pulling up meta from nowhere.

Statement not actually helpful

it actually is, considering there are players who just quick vote rashly
this setup is innately scum sided. anyone who disagrees , feel free to explain. I actually wish we got scum role but we didn't

It just seemed forced in my opinion MEMEMAN, it's not like scum team can just go quicklynching everyone

Aster, nothing to comment about my post talking about you?
The posts you commented are after it so I'm just saying in case you did skip mine

I didn’t skip his posts, I skipped your analysis of those. Otherwise your analysis was right, you just have the wrong motivation. I was trying to put out my RQS conclusions and didn’t want to delay it, lus general laziness.

then if you didn't skip his posts and was only voting him for not remembering you, does it mean you have no problems with his posts?

I'm hoping Aster is town here, it would be quite troublesome otherwise...
I think your explanation is pretty valid Aster, but not that I'm accusing you, however you seem like the kind of player that could easily come with that explanation as scum even if you didn't had that motive at that time

then if you didn't skip his posts and was only voting him for not remembering you, does it mean you have no problems with his posts?

Not really.

That's quite troubling...

Also I noticed talking about calling people LAMIST without voting to see how they’d respond so I’ll respond to my accusation of that by saying that’s a fair statement, but it was an earnest question I asked.[/color]

We didn't call it LAMIST only for the reactions though...but yeah, it might be frustating to be suspected (as either alignment) but bear with us because it is hard to believe on people here.

Also, shouldn't we be careful about who we vote?

Because if scum is well coordinated, then after we vote, they could just pile on all 4 as 4 more votes.

He's saying for us to be careful when there was only people throwing RVS votes, it seemed just as "too soon" as Gamma's question, and I have a easier time seeing a bored town wanting to start a conversation with someone by asking "any thoughts on anyone alignment?" than a town that by seeing RVS says for us to not vote so rashly.
Plus, thinking that after we vote scum team could quickly hammer someone without raising suspicious is kinda...
I mean, maybe MEMEMAN said that genuinely, I can see that, however it just seems more likely to come from scum for now in my opinion.

Forgot to switch votes
VOTE: MEMEMAN
It is a hard choice between voting Gamma or MEMEMAN though...

I know ofhrz and I know her MEME STYLE
Can I be the Psy to your CL?
Doesn't mean you have to townread me, but tell me who you think I should vote rn other than myself :3

mmmmh, not trying to cherrypick but it sounds pretty bad when you say "tell me who I should vote for"
MEMEMAN, you're not helping yourself here, as either alignment

Normal town: Aster
Meme-town: Blackjacks

I'm quite interested on your town read of Blackjacks. They haven't posted their thoughts at all except in one post, so that means that you're town reading them for their behavior right? If you think that's town-BJ behavior, what do you think they would be doing as scum? I mean, I would appreciate if you explained this read.

Current interest: Nibbui
VOTE: Nibbui

Before you had said you were insterested in Keyser but couldn't put your finger around it, has that changed?
Also, why are you insterested in me?

Before you had said you were insterested in Keyser but couldn't put your finger around it, has that changed?

Actually I said Keyser was probably scum and that's all I've said about his slot, I never said I couldn't put my finger around him. Although one must ask, can anyone ever put their finger around Keyser Soze? Like that, he's gone...

Oh right, I think it was Gamma that said about being interested in Keyzer but not knowing exactly what. Sorry. I'm still insterested on a explanation of your town read on BJ though, and what do you think they would be doing as scum?

I still would be inclined to believe that ruru is town here

why and how would you differentiate town-ruru in early game to scum-ruru in early game? Sorry if it's a drag to explain but I would appreciate if you or anyone townreading BJ did so

Looking back on it...

Knowing the towniness of Ruru is not something that can be explained, it is something you must let yourself feel in your heart
-rh

What game(s) are you using as samples to "know the towniness" of Ruru?

In other news, I didn't like BJs' entrance

. The post was fine, I laughed, but seems like it was prepared before the game started. My problema with that is that it was a huge post and it's obvious that took a lot of effort.

I tend to scumread people who puts that much of an effort on RVS; preparing a post before the game starts is past that line

.

Even if I still believed that the message was prepared beforehand, I still would be inclined to believe that ruru is town here

Pintu, help me here sort this out, but for me it seems like you really had something against BlackJacks in 185 for their big post, very close to a scum read, however after us debating it a little and not thinking it's a big deal, you say in 233 that you would still townread BlackJacks even if you did believe in their post being made beforehand.

My point is that I kinda don't feel that how you adressed BJ in 185 comes from someone that genuinely believes her to be towny in a general sense.

Am I wrong somewhere?

Pintu, you're kinda getting too defensive with me again...
MEMEMEN might be questioning you about the veracity of your read, however I was questioning your thought process behind your actions, that for now had been your read/discussion on Ruru. That's not the same thing and I would appreciate if you didn't put us together in a little nice box .

Now to the polemic question: Are scum going to buss or not?

Relevant.

The asking for those townreading BJ isn't due to it implying BJ as scum--quite the opposite, it's evidence Blackjack is town. But rather, the defense of Blackjack as town is something consistent across rather scummy slots implying a level of information they shouldn't have leading to a certainty in that read which shouldn't be present, so Nibbui asking them why they are townreading Blackjack is valid, particularly given--and here's the key part--Blackjack was the only wagon that got to a notable size other than the lynch of Springtrap.

And one which if RC is telling the truth about his contributions.
Was spearheaded by him, initially.

Scum resisting a wagon they know is spearheaded by strong town? Right up their alley if RC is town.
For that matter, scum dividing their efforts by having one spearhead the lynch and the rest resist it? Still up their alley in case RC is scum, although I do confess that's the less likely of the two outlooks at this point. (Basically, RC can still be scum but mounting evidence suggests he's more likely to not be scum. However, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER HE IS TOWN OR SCUM, the strong defense of Blackjack is suspect across the board.)

[mastina]

First, you claim that you were 70% confident that your role would be scum before replacing in. Assuming that you're not scum, you should believe your role to be a very bad NK target: why would the mafia want to kill scummy lynchbait?

Because of reputation.
I explained very clearly there:
If the scumteam was made of experienced players who knew me, they'd leave me alive.
If the scumteam was made of inexperienced players who didn't know me, there was a real chance they would nightkill me no matter how much an appetizing mislynch bait I'd otherwise be.

The difference between the two is how people who have interacted with me perceive my townplay, and how people who are newbies that have only heard of my exploits particularly my status as an expert on mafia theory who has written bundleloads of articles on townplay, would perceive my townplay.

Thus, living or death would be a determinable factor in scumteam composition. I die, scumteam is players I don't know but doesn't matter because I am dead. I live, scumteam is made up at least partially of players who have good reason to believe that I can safely be left alive.

This really makes me wonder what made you feel so pressured to send your contributions to the mod.

Simple, really.
I am a vain, narcissistic, egotistical bitch.
I sent the analysis to northsidegal immediately after my offer to replace in, on Sunday; I typed out the post I entered with on Monday after I got home from work, that was based on the one I sent on Sunday. There was no grander purpose other than satiating my inner desire to be right.

Provided that you were to get killed tonight and flip town, there would be nothing preventing you from posting you message verbatim in the dead thread yourself.

Uh.
That message wasn't written for me being killed tonight.
I already know now that I've lived that I ain't being nightkilled for the rest of the game.
If it was going to happen, it was going to happen

last

night. Which was what the message was typed for.
I knew I had two possible fates this game.

Killed upon entering in by players who didn't know anything about me other than my reputation through MD, or lynched after playing because the scumteam had someone on it that knew I wasn't to be feared. There were no other outcomes.

[mastina]

Keep reading mastina, we solved that shit ages ago.

I realize it was a small point, thus you probably missed it, but I specifically noted it was Yuurei's

earlier

content I was interested in, for this reason:

Not to discard the nightkill, by the way--haven't done a full iso there but I did particularly note that

Yuurei as I knew the account holder as, is particularly competent but prone to reevaluating things that shouldn't have been reevaluated

, and had fingered quite heavily Gamma I believe it was? Or was it Meme? Or was it both? Butyeah, that didn't escape my notice and I'll get to it in due time.

Yuurei is prone to reevaluating reads which should not have been reevaluated.

That is my belief on the status of the stance regarding those defending Blackjack.
No matter what Nibbui's

later

stances/posts were on the subject, I feel it is the earlier positions which warranted the nightkill in the first place.

Specifically, for the reasons I pointed out in 1130.
Nibbui fingered quite heavily Gamma and Meme, with some fingering of Aster and Keyzer, with pint later on.

A point I found particularly poignant was that Nibbui correctly discerned that the strong defense of Blackjack was suspicious--I just feel that Nibbui was wrong about the reasoning. Not because of scum defending their scumbuddy, but because of scum white knighting the obvious lynchbait about to be power-lynched, and that the players defending Blackjack

shouldn't

have been defending them that strong, and thus, that their defense of him was showing (to use the new lingo) TMI.

I'm not sure how many points this would be, but it's at least a minimum of +2 AnonymousGhost. (I'll be conservative here.)

why are you being conservative in regards to this particular post*?
*Gamma's sheep on Aster's wall

For the sake of giving a conservative estimate for how scum you are rather than a more liberal estimation of how scum you are, to give figures that will let the doubters go, "Hmm, that's fair/reasonable" rather than "Hey, that seems pretty harsh". I'm essentially giving a form of benefit of the doubt, where I am projecting the interaction as the least-scummy value possible, as to have the people who aren't sure, be able to take a look at it and understand how even if doing things conservatively, it is still strong evidence supporting my working theory.

[mastina]

you could create a philosophy based on that maybe

Btw on the subject of philosophy.
In a game guaranteed to have no power roles, you know that the only metrics in play to determine the nightkill are based around the town triple threat.
How obvtown are they (how impossible to lynch are they, or similar), how charismatic are they (how easily they sway people, how good their reasoning is, and similar), and how accurate they are.

However, those three metrics can be viewed by three perspectives:
Reputation without prior evidence (that is, hasn't been seen in the game, but know about it);
Prior evidence which is currently not the case;
Current evidence which is obviously the case.

A player who is obvtown on D1, for instance, may be a viable lynch D4, or vice-versa, viable lynch D1 obvtown on D4.
Similarly, some players specialize at charisma early-game; other players specialize at charisma late-game, and everywhere in-between.

But what I really am getting at here is accuracy.

If given the choice between two players that are equally obvtown and equally charismatic--or close enough to warrant it being a tough call--which metric do you use?

If it is by reputation, we can ascertain no further information from the kill, because we have no way of knowing who knows Yuurei's reputation; most players N1 probably had an equal idea.

If it is instead by either current accuracy or past accuracy...ten times out of ten, I am going to go for the one who was in the past accurate.

The reason I am going to go for the one in the past that was accurate is stupidly obvious.

The person who is currently accurate has no way of knowing they are currently accurate. Given time, they will likely change their reads to be inaccurate. Furthermore, because players do NKA, they are going to look at the player's last-stated reads and read in reverse-chronological order. This is the exact thing I want to avoid doing as scum, because it points the town squarely at the direction I am hoping to avoid.

The person who is currently inaccurate but was previously accurate, having shown they were previously accurate, is likely to at some point reevaluate, reset, go back to square one, and revisit their old reads. (I know that one of the first things I do when I am doing a reset is to visit my old processes, and I know this is not at all uncommon a thing to do; it's standard practice.)
Reads I would rather have them NOT be revisiting.
And because they died inaccurate, players who do NKA will be looking at the wrong spot, the end where they were inaccurate.

This is how I would do it, and obviously, my way is not the only way.
My way

is

, however. The best way, and it doesn't take a mafia genius to put together why.

People who believe in NKA look in the wrong spot.
People who don't believe in NKA don't look at all.
The player who proved they

could

be a threat is removed, before they become a threat again.
The player who is currently a threat, via not dieing, thinks that there's a good reason they're alive, and reevaluates to the point where they are no longer a threat.
And so on and so forth. There are a million different reasons why it's the strategy to use.
And yet it only takes one of said reasons for the kill to be the best one to be made.

My point from the ramble on MD theory being.
Most players in the game would, as scum, be smart enough to know that "proof of past threat = need to eliminate, before past threat becomes present again", more or less.

So I stand by Yuurei/Nibbui being killed for their

early

content, not the later content.

[mastina]

Mastina, would you wagon GE with me? Pin expressed interest too. I think that’s the correct first wagon today.

I would indeed, but there's no such thing as a "correct first wagon".

Because if there's more than one wagon, it is automatically incorrect.

There's only one correct wagon, and that is a unified lynch on scum without first having gone after town.

I will vote whichever of AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald has more support.

I feel like AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald are both linchpins of the scumteam, and my vote on AnonymousGhost is mostly because I feel like they value AnonymousGhost's life more than Gamma's--after all.

Even though Gamma may not have known I'd come out swinging on him, with his performance in a similar game exposed, he's smart enough to suspect his time in this game is likely limited. (Also, because if I

had

to say, Gamma is ever so slightly less likely to be scum than AnonymousGhost, but AnonymousGhost is like 98% whereas Gamma is something like 97.5% so they really are pretty much equivalent.)

[mastina]

Btw, for the record--if RC is town here, I'd expect him to be right on AT LEAST one of {Aster is town, Keyser is scum}, with the chance of being right on both (which would be pint as scum).

But I would vastly prefer we cross that bridge only if need be come to it. Legit think that the fastest path to victory is lynching one of AnonymousGhost/Gamma Emerald.

[mastina]

VOTE: Gamma Emerald
Mastina if you're wrong with this, my vote tomorrow will be parked on you. You are misreping the whole blackjack situation so if Gamma is town, I'm expecting you going for me tomorrow instead of the other players you have named and your scumread on me is poor, very poor. Your whole premise is how some players are related to Gamma

Well there's a lot wrong with this post, so I'm not sure where to begin. Hmm. I suppose I can sum it up this way:

One, if Gamma were in fact town, tomorrow would be lylo.

Two, I already explained my angle of approach on the Blackjack situation and have fully confessed that while I have not read the game proper and may in fact lack the relevant context, still feel that where I am coming from has merit.

Three, you are not the only one implicated by the "Blackjack situation"; in fact, far from it, you're only on the peripherals of it.

Four, you are not implicated

only

by the Blackjack situation; I have reasons beyond that for my suspicion on you.

Five, my scumread on you is in fact comparatively poor to my stronger scumreads--which is stupidly self-evident, because I have noted that you are not in fact one of said stronger scumreads. No fucking shit my scumread on you is poor compared to my scumread on, say, Gamma; that's because I am not at all as convinced.
And by that, I mean. The strength of the reasoning is directly correlated to the strength of the read. My reasoning on you is not as strong and I have stated as much; my read on you is not as strong and this is abundantly clear so frankly how you could ever think I am scumreading you to the same degree as Gamma baffles me since I was rather explicit about this.

Six, my scumreads are not in fact all dependent on Gamma flipping scum. The basis of my scumreads originate from a combination of sources. Admittedly--and I have previously confessed this fact--none of them in of themselves are damning, but I feel like collectively they do paint a picture. What are these sources?

1. First, VCA off of the end-of-D1-wagon, compared to the immediately previous VC which told me "no counterwagons, not exactly a flash-deadline lynch".
   
2. Second, reading pages 43, 42, 41, and 40 in that order.
   
3. Third, reading Gamma's iso. (And having been exposed to a VAST number of his games as both alignments, yes, I actually DO consider myself something of an expert as his meta; I may be literally the only one on site who can consistently read him correctly.)
   
4. Fourth, reading Meme Men's iso and AnonymousGhost's iso.
   
5. Fifth, reading the iso of Springtrap, who could have been lynched to silence a voice that had competency hidden within.
   
6. Sixth, reading the early half of Nibbui's iso, the half of the iso which I value more off of personal meta experience with Yuurei.

Individually, none of these are strong.

Collectively, I feel that they are more than reasonable enough a basis for my suspicions to lie where they are. NKA, VCA, some isos which're admittedly out of context, and then adding in some posts which are fully

in

context.

Frankly for someone who said that this was a zero-effort game and that she wasn't going to give it much in the way of serious scumhunting, that's as good as it gets especially in such a short timeframe.

Hm? While I dislike how mastina is playing like I’ve already flipped scum her conclusions don’t seem that wrong based on that premise.

Btw, this fits Gamma's scum meta of...ironically, pulling up meta from nowhere.

Wow you know fucking NOTHING of my meta if you think THAT is my scum meta. I do that as both alignments, arguably MORE often as TOWN. Where the fuck do you get the idea you’re an authority on reading me in any sense?

Anyone care to point out the problem with these two posts back to back?

Pin, Mastina: No take backsies. Wagon up.

Sure thing!
VOTE: Gamma Emerald.

i can't even bring myself to read all this

Do you want me to give a highlight reel, or do you want to just vote Gamma and assume the highlight reel would be convincing enough?

[mastina]

are these unusually confident reads for you, or do you always do this?

Complicated, not a yes-or-no question, and the only way to address it is to talk about non-game stuff. In short, answer's irrelevant to the game,

Spoiler: ...But if you insist on having an answer......

The answer is both yes, and no.
I wrote an article explaining half of the concept, and never finished my article explaining the other half.
The article I wrote explaining one half of this is Possibilities versus Probabilities.

In there, I basically explain how always, I am at war with myself.
At every single second.
I am imagining every single possible possibility.
You may think that's not possible; there's a ton of possibilities. With 4/10 players as scum, there are...how many unique combos? Is it as simple as 400? But no matter what the exact number, there's a lot.

So I couldn't possibly calculate them all, every second, right?

Except I do, and I do it even when not at the keyboard.
At work.
When eating.
When taking a shower.
At all times I think of the game, I am considering every single possible outcome.
For instance, at the most extreme: "What if every single one of my townreads were in fact the scumteam?"

I run through these, every second.
With every piece of new information, I run through them again. And again. And again.

Paranoia is crippling.
Doubt is overwhelming.
I never know what my reads are.
I can never truly be certain of them, because every time I feel good, suddenly, a new thought crops up and makes me think I could be wrong again.

Thus, the concept of probabilities.

I had to install a filter to function in games. Even if the correct combination is deemed a possibility rather than probability and thus tossed out, it was inherently a necessary move for me to be able to be of

any

use in a game. I weigh the scenarios, and put active thought into sorting them, off of what I know.

Some become less likely than others; others become more likely.

And while I can rarely if ever narrow in on the exact correct one, I can get closer to the correct one. Just by sifting through with the filter, discarding the ones which look unlikely and violate occam's razor, and accepting the ones which are simpler, make more sense, fit the facts better, and overall just "feel" like they're the case.

That is the balance of possibilities, and probabilities; the probabilities are the town player's friend, and the possibilities are the enemy.

But there's a second half to that, the unpublished result of this philosophy.

I have to have a way to both advance the gamestate, and yet be able to step back and reevaluate when necessary.

This is what I refer to as the "Theory of Pushing", in my notes, with the basic philosophy of...

"I need to push, and push HARD".

I push the probabilities I see, and push them hard. I keep pushing them, and pushing them--until I am no longer certain they are probabilities, until I think that instead of a probability, they are just a possibility. (Okay, small break from my ramble for a game note.)

(So you don't have to click the spoiler, for this

game-relevant content

, to restate: "I push the probabilities I see, and push them hard. I keep pushing them, and pushing them--until I am no longer certain they are probabilities, until I think that instead of a probability, they are just a possibility." This is game-relevant, because this is in the process of happening with RC; it hasn't fully shifted yet, but it's at the point where I am certainly uncertain of it being a probability at the very least.)

Spoiler: ...But back to being non-game-relevant...

This leads to the perception that I am arrogant, or at the very least, overconfident. I seemingly get confirmation bias, apparently--allegedly--never reevaluating, keeping my push going on the same targets.

But I am doing so for a very good reason. Because I am always, at every turn. Looking to be proven wrong. At every turn, I am reevaluating. And while most of the time, I reevaluate and go, "You know...I still feel the same way I did before.", sometimes, I really

do

shift my opinion.

I push, and push, and state things as absolutes even if they are not, because when I am doing so, I am advancing the gamestate, in my own unique way. The interactions I generate can be just as useful if not more, than my original push. Seeing how people react to my push can be just as valuable a thing as seeing how my target responds to the push.

It's altogether a way of trying to make the most out of uncertainty and doubt, of crippling bipolar shifts between extremes of doubt and certainty.

So yes, I am always confident, but no; I am never actually confident.
Yet the two don't contradict.

In the case of this game, I would say the best answer I have to give you is thus:
I am as sure as I can be,

given who I am

, that Gamma Emerald and AnonymousGhost are scum.
You won't get better than that in any game I ever play in.

[mastina]

So you think scum are bussing like crazy? lolmao

Well actually......

Going to re-read all my null/scum, null/town reads, starting with Clemency:
I feel like Clem has always played by his rules and pace. His ISO is full of: early blatant attempt to extend RVS, fluff posting, signs of being very conscious of his playstyle, lots of talking about himself and what he thinks about the gamestate, self-deprecating feels...
This is the quintessential Clem post:

i'm seriously concerned with the amount of lurk y'all are letting me get away with

It is pretty evident he doesn’t mind the focus being on himself.
It even took him til his 67th post to share his first articulated reads on Nibs, Aster and Volx

okay holy shit nvm you're all way too high intensity for me
i can't even bring myself to read all this

Clem keeps getting overwhelmed by gamestate atmosphere/player moods - has anyone played with Clem before? Is this alignment indicative?

Taking a step back from his ISO as a whole, his tone feels like a low WIM/low motivated townie, but I need to see Clem pro-actively sort the playerlist to deserve a more tangible town read. I feel like he’s a passenger. His thread energy fluctuates from excited puppy to pessimist. I think he needs to play more serious as he’s proving a difficult player to sort.
Ceejay next.

So basically...you

resorted

your

null read

to be...
...Nulltown?

[mastina]

Now how about you answer the damn question?

You play in basically every game I read, sooooooooooooooooo.
I have fairly extensive history seeing you as every alignment.

[mastina]

MOD: power out at home. No power, no Internet. Out all night most likely, and busy shopping for holidays tomorrow; V/LA at least 48 hours

.

[mastina]

(Also, ow.
I now know of a single reason why my mafsilver preference could on a specific occasion be a bad thing.

Surrounded by pitch black, try turning on your phone and staring straight at it. Suddenly, blind.)

[mastina]

MOD:

Extend my V/LA by 24-48 hours.
Right

now

I have power back--but I have twice had power back for fifteen minutes, only to lose it again later.
And it's still rather windy out; we're not out of the woods on the storm yet.

I'll be back in the game...once I can be assured that I can actually play the damn game without losing all of my work because I can't fucking post it. (The instant power goes out, internet goes out, too. So even though my uninterruptable power supply makes it so that my computer doesn't instantly crash, doesn't do me much good since pages won't load, posts won't go through, etc.)

[mastina]

Well.

Let's get this over with.

VOTE: Gamma Emerald.
If I am going to gamethrow by voting town, then fuckit I'm going to do it immediately and right straight out of the gate.

If I am going to be wrong and cost the town the game, I am going to do so promptly and immediately rather than after two weeks of wasting everyone's time.

If I am going to be wrong, better wrong now than later.

And if I'm not wrong?

If this happens to be a vote on scum?

All the better, because this is a fight I know that, if it's against scum, I'll win.

So let's test that theory, shall we?

[mastina]

I mean at this point.
If Clemency is scum, the game is won for scum anyway since I'd never lynch him.
If Blackjacks is scum, the game is won for scum anyway since I'd never vote them.
If TTTT is scum, the game is won for scum anyway, since I'd almost never vote him.
Since I know that I am town.

That literally gives me a 4/5 chance of picking right, assuming I had any shot at all of picking right.
If one of those three is scum, we deserve to lose anyway and they deserve to win.
So really what I would ask myself is.

"Who in Gamma Emerald, AnonymousGhost, Aster, RadiantCowbells, and Keyser Soze would be town?"
And that's the player not to vote; I could vote literally any of the others and be good.

And I am most comfortable.
Banking on Gamma not being the townie among those four.
So.

Here we are.
Either endgame us because I was wrong, or prove that we have a 1v1. (Which I know I can and will win.)

[mastina]

(I'd start proving why I am town now and writing a case for why Gamma is scum, but I'm not going to put that time/effort in until I know it's not a waste. Like I said. I have experience gamethrowing so I know the best way to throw the game is swiftly and immediately.)

[mastina]

Ehh fuckit.
I stand by what I said before that I'm not getting killed this game.

But.

That means I'll never get to use this in-context for the game.
Meaning I may as well post it.

I assumed I wouldn't die last night.
But on a whim, I started typing this about ten, fifteen minutes before night's deadline, as a just-in-case I was killed, once I verified via looking at the rules that nsg allows bah posts.



Not exactly looking so lovely as last night
No longer shining so bright
I was asked by four men if I wanted to dance
Not exactly romance, given half a chance
Dunno if they'd seen that dress I'm wearing
Or the highlights in my hair catching their eyes
I have been blind

The lady in red was me dancing, cheek to cheek
I thought nobody was here, but someone was with me
Not where I wanted to be
I hardly knew what was by my side
I'll never forget the outcome of tonight

I know I looked gorgeous as I did tonight
I know I shone so bright, I was amazing
I know so many people wanted to be by my side
I turned over lost my smile, bullet took my breath away
And I never had such a feeling
Such a feeling of complete and utter death, as I do tonight

The lady in red was me dancing, cheek to cheek
I thought nobody was here, but someone was with me
Not where I wanted to be
I hardly knew what was by my side
I'll never forget the outcome of tonight

I'll never forget the outcome of tonight
The lady in red, is me now dead
The lady in red, is me now dead

I love you

(Bah.)
<3



I typed that out, and finished just before nsg posted the Lolwagons flip. Pretty much the same minute.
I suppose I could fake this as scum, but I really don't have much reason to.

I'm at this point banking on me not being made a massive fucking fool out of via Gamma being literally the only town in my pool, thus, banking on this not being worthless, that yes I do in fact have a need to show I am town because I did in fact vote scum. I'm assuming that there is in fact purpose for putting this sort of thing forward, which I realize will make me all the more stupid-looking if wrong, but like I said. Fuckit, going with it anyway.

[mastina]

Interesting

You know the last time I quick-voted town in lylo as town.

This was pretty much what scum said to set up the quickhammer.

So I'm looking forward to the inevitable game over tomorrow.

But, dammit.

I am going to stick by my guns and see this through to the end no matter the cost.

I refuse to back down, even if the price is losing the game.

[mastina]

(For the record. Sticking to you being town. Just a bunch of reasons there. Did an iso, looked town. General flow of game, seems town. Whole analysis of situation suggests town. NKA suggests town. VCA suggests town. And even now, I'd call 1582 a town reaction for ~reasons~, which I won't go into unless it actually becomes pertinent to the game to do so. Butstill. DON'T BREAK MY HEART DAMMIT)

[mastina]

(Also for the record. I did a brief skim of Clemency's iso and similarly to Blackjack my townread there was reinforced. TTTT's slot it's tougher to tell and there I'm actually more nervous about because if any of my townreads are wrong it's that one, but overall this is where I am and fuckit I need three town right now because I need it to be a number nigh-impossible to hit town; 4/5 is a surefire scum hit, whereas 4/6 is slightly less likely. )

[mastina]

(Of course, long-term, only need to hit two scum and between Aster and AnonymousGhost as pretty lockscum, fairly good odds that I'd be able to get that tomorrow. It's just that...to lynch the second scum, you need to lynch the first. So that's what I'm mostly talking about right now.)

[mastina]

why wouldn't you just wait for the flip?

It was done on a whim, a "sure why not" sort of thing. There wasn't a reason to not wait, I just didn't wait.

[mastina]

To put that in perspective.
I have reasons for voting Gamma Emerald.
Maybe shitty reasons, but I have them. I have a good reason for having, out of the gate, immediately, seconds after the day started, voting Gamma Emerald. Reasons I've partially but not fully laid out, though the parts not fully laid out are easily enough inferred.

I can explain there endlessly my reasoning for doing so, if need be.

I can do no such thing for why I wrote that, because it wasn't a planned thing.
I knew from the moment PP flipped town that if I lived, I'd be voting Gamma immediately. So there's reasons a plenty for it.
There's no reasons for the song.
It just.
Is what I decided to do.

[mastina]

Mastina can I ask you to unvote

You can, but I won't.
Rather.
The only way my vote leaves Gamma is if it goes on someone else.

I didn't get a chance to say this yesterday, but it is STUPIDLY self-evident that scum have been bussing.

I dare anyone to name a team that doesn't involve bussing. I mean, I guess you can maybe find a combination, but obviously it's just not probable; scum bussing is the obvious answer.

And given that.
You can correct flawed assumptions.

Will elaborate when home from work.

[mastina]

Well, you could say a great many things about me.

I have a poor track record with White Flag games. This is a variant, but all the same it is a setup I do terribly in.
I have a general lack of interest in tryharding this game.
I still intend to put in the "appropriate amount" of effort, but I mean that in the sense of, I will be posting as often as I can (most, but not every, days), contributing content during those times, and will talk...
...But I won't be reading all 43 pages; this is a low-key effort at best.[/list]

If I am going to gamethrow by voting town, then fuckit I'm going to do it immediately and right straight out of the gate.
If I am going to be wrong and cost the town the game, I am going to do so promptly and immediately rather than after two weeks of wasting everyone's time.
If I am going to be wrong, better wrong now than later.

I mean at this point. If Clemency is scum, the game is won for scum anyway since I'd never lynch him.
If one of those three is scum, we deserve to lose anyway and they deserve to win.

(I'm not going to put that time/effort in until I know it's not a waste. Like I said. I have experience gamethrowing so I know the best way to throw the game is swiftly and immediately.)

You know the last time I quick-voted town in lylo as town. This was pretty much what scum said to set up the quickhammer.

So I'm looking forward to the inevitable game over tomorrow.

I am going to stick by my guns and see this through to the end no matter the cost. I refuse to back down, even if the price is losing the game.

(It's just that...to lynch the second scum, you need to lynch the first. So that's what I'm mostly talking about right now.)

...That I didn't deliver exactly what I said I would is not among them.

(Also, RIP, 3/5 chance at hitting scum, primary pick as town;

second

pick being the

only other wrong answer

. )

[mastina]

Butyeah.
I do feel scum played well this game, and certainly earned the win.
The town collectively made a fair number of errors. (For instance, I'd argue that the PP lynch was a mistake, because PP's townflip didn't cause anyone's opinion on other slots to shift--whereas, say, a Gamma Emerald townflip would cause at minimum two key players' fundamental stances to shift. And I say that...in spite of knowing that the only reason I wasn't on the PP lynch is because I wasn't able to be online long enough to join the wagon before it was hammered; I'd have been part of the problem via contributing to said lynch, given the chance. Basically, I might not officially have made the mistake but take my word for it I definitely would have made it.) And as a result, we definitely didn't deserve a win.

I have to say that while I didn't have much investment in the game--and I do apologize since that lack of investment in the game was a contributing factor in my gamethrowing play--I still

enjoyed

the experience in spite of that.

[mastina]

Sorry for the rep out.
My reads were terrible anyway

Well when you have a 3/5 chance of hitting scum (meaning you already have 1 key read absolutely wrong) and your first two picks are the only wrong options...I'd say mine weren't any better.

All the correct suspicions on Aster, RC, and Keyser aren't worth anything if I instead vote someone who isn't them.