Open 744 - Lovers and Losers [endgame]

[Michael Scott]

Not for sure if I’m confident enough on either pair to end this yet. I’ll look over how they both interacted with Dong tomorrow. That might inform my decision more.

If you mean tomorrow by game day, no -- we should sort them out before my lynch happens.

[LolWagons]

Nope sorry, I meant irl day.

In whole agreement we should sort them out before a lynch.

[LolWagons]

What do you think about what I just proposed?

[Michael Scott]

Hmm. Out of the 6 town, we only need 5 for a majority -- so if Egix does townread me, we'd be able to follow the strat. Egix's vote on me is definitely concerning.

I'm actually more sure now on Clem being scum than 0verki11/Dong though.

[Michael Scott]

Yeah. I think we should take our time and grill Egix and 0ver too. I'm pretty set on it being Clem, but I'm happy to take my time and see if my read changes.

It'll be useful to have McQueen pitch in too.

[Michael Scott]

What do you think about what I just proposed?

Also this relies on the rest of the town slots TRing you as well, remember.

[0verki11]

here, sorry I was at a fundraising thing today, catching up now but will be going asleep soon

[0verki11]

I was active elsewhere but ran out of data before posting btw.

[0verki11]

Guys. Speed massclaim.
Hard claiming Town Lover pair with McQueen.

We'll have two true VT claims and a fake one. We just pick two to lynch, 66% win.

K, im one of the VT claims if it isnt already known

[0verki11]

Yeah Michael's trying to hard to control this game so imma ignore him for now. Probably scum, but I'll see what else we got.

Why the reluctance to claim? Mass claim is ideal.

Scum can’t choose who they want to be in which group after the fact, they’re forced to commit up front.

Good post.

I’ll go ahead and VOTE: Bambi for claim reluctance and throw an early townread on muh for asking how many days max the game goes. Pretty sure mafia would know how many mislynches they need and thus how many days it can go.

Not a bad post for the timing.

Oh thank God Clem is a lover I can’t read him alone.

I mean they arent nesseraly a town lover but I agree that we dont lynch a lover claim.

IM NOT LYNCHING A FUCKING TOWNREAD 24 HOURS AFTER THE GAME STARTS
Everyone hasn’t even posted yet and we are all pretending the course of the game is set in stone.

Please dont tell me that people want to lynch a lover claim.

I don’t compromise on lynches. Egix knows that well.

We lynch out of VT claims.

Bud, you're tied to me and McQueen here.
Say we lynch Dong today, and he flips green.
Come tomorrow, Clemency is going to allege that you and I and McQueen are scum, and bandwagon onto you/me.
Bambi|Egix also join in because reasons, and I become the mislynch, thus letting scum win.

Dong isn’t going to flip town lol

This

Anybody not lynching within me, Lolwagon and Dong is bad and should reconsider their life choices
I know im town and LoL is townie so I am parking my vote and not moving it.
VOTE: Dong

[Michael Scott]

Wow this is interesting, all the townies wanting to vote in townies.
Thanks for making the game harder to sort.

[Clemency]

holy fuck vote michael

[0verki11]

wait im kind of dumb.
6 lover claims which im just calling hydras from now on.
1 hydra out of 3 is scum
3 VT claims 1 of which is scum.
So in theory it doesnt really matter where we go.
But I am way more confident in lynching a VT claim because i tr LoL.

[Egix96]

wait im kind of dumb.
6 lover claims which im just calling hydras from now on.
1 hydra out of 3 is scum
3 VT claims 1 of which is scum.
So in theory it doesnt really matter where we go.
But I am way more confident in lynching a VT claim because i tr LoL.

The problem is that a) I have no way of knowing if you're town and b) I know that either Michael+Mcqueen or Clem+muh is a scum pair who are fakeclaiming town lovers.

I can see the possibilty of MS+McQ being scum with DE, but several of Clem's posts have been giving me scum vibes so I'm not entirely sure.

UNVOTE:
to prevent hammer. I'll have a go at casing them both once I'm able to use my laptop today.

[Donempire]

Recap od overkills post

"Lolwagons is townie.
Lynch lol and dong lmaolmao"
Fantastic post

[yessiree]

Egix96 has requested replacement and may no longer post.

[yessiree]

Ruby Red replaces Egix96

[Clemency]

ruby red vote michael

[Michael Scott]

Given my lynch effectively means a lynch on Clemency next, {Clemency|0verki11|Muh316} is pretty consistent with their behaviour ATM.

Let me explain.
Firstly, we should establish the cross-connections:
My mutual strongish TR with Lolwagons, along with our agreement to work together and my early willingness to lynch {0verki11, Dong} in that order establish that my only likely scumpartner here is Lolwagons from an external perspective.
With Dong's readiness to vote Clemency, Dong can only be associated with Jay|Egix. This leaves 0verki11 with Clem|Muh.
I'll just letter these trios to make it easier.

A: Auro|McQueen|Lolwagons
B: Bambi|Egix(Ruby)|Dongempire
C: Clemency|Muh|0verki11.

A is a possibility; my proposing a strategy and trying to take control along with Lolwagons quickly agreeing to it does look like it was planned. However, this means that both B&C lovers have been derping pretty much.

Now, let's assume B (Bambi|Egix|Dong) is the scumteam. Bambi fearmongers and votes me, Egix hesitates; but Egix does join eventually when I have a self-vote. It's possible that Egix missed my unvote, in which case this would be very scum-indicative. However, posts like 206 I can't see from scum when the sentiment is largely irrationally against me. Also, his opinion on 0verki11 is pretty much the same I was thinking, so I *think* Dong redeems this scumteam.

If we take C to be the scumteam, their agenda is *much* easier to explain. Bambi's "lynch the logician" derp is pretty much expected from town, and fits; Clemency's capitalization of that to lynch me directly benefits him in the short term. There begins the derptunneling of me and the desperate attempts to get me lynched. An important note here is that Clemency's town play is

empty noise

, usually -- if you do a quick meta-check on any of his town games, you'll notice the stark distinction between his play here and his normal town play. Also, town!Clem would be experienced enough to vote in VTs. If scum have daytalk, they would have realized soon that I'm a bad D1 lynch -- it was always a better play to let a mislynch happen and then use that to powerlynch me in D2 to seal the win; here comes in 0verki11 and propounds the "lynch in the VTs obv!" idea because if I was town here and ML'd, Clem would follow suit. Given that my lynch is suicide for Clem, it's better to avoid an Auro lynch ATM, and Clem can't backtrack right now - so it makes sense for 0verki11 to do that and prevent a lynch on me. Muh also quick-sheeps his lover onto me, cause, agenda -- Muh is capable of independent thought, so this is a scumtell for him.

Bottomline being: Independent of which VT claim here is scum, my current solve being {Clem, 0verki11} and the scum!VT NOT hammering me is more indicative of Clem being scum; in any other case, scum would've taken the easier path and just lynched me after my "last thoughts", much less ask me to unvote.

{Clem, 0verki11, muh}

is the solve. Dong is a less probable partner to Clem than 0verki11.

[Clemency]

vote michael he's scum

[Michael Scott]

VOTE: Clemency

I'm really confident in this. Dong's ready to vote here with me; Lolwagons, feel free to talk more about this and I'll see if I can get you to where I am. I'm locking you as town now, and am not re-evaluating your slot. If you agree that Clem is very likely scum here, vote him -- Ruby Red may join and lynch there.

[Clemency]

i'm gonna be so pissed at all of you if you actually fall for this shit

[Clemency]

i will remove all of you from my myspace friends list

[Michael Scott]

i'm gonna be so pissed at all of you if you actually fall for this shit

They needn't. The way the current gamestate is, it's probable we run into deadline and I get plurality-lynched; then they listen to dead!Auro's solve and powerlynch you. It's lose-lose, man.

[muh316]

With Dong's readiness to vote Clemency, Dong can only be associated with Jay|Egix.

So you're saying a scum player has never voted for their scum partners? That vote isn't AI. Your whole A/B/C analysis is just a clever plot to get yourself disassociated with one of the scumVTs here like Dong or Overkill.

I'd also like to point out how Dong was the one that pushed MS to unvote himself so there's that strong possibility of MS/McQueen/Dong. If there's no Mafia daychat that could have just been Dong's way of saying "Unvote yourself, you're going to make us all lose."