[SETUP/EV] Connect

Michael Scott · Post Post #1 (isolation #0) » Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:14 am

Hi; I'm still pretty much new to Mafia so I'm doing this as an exercise.
1/9+8/9*1/8 should be the EV with zero discussion overall. Which equates to 2/9, really low chances.
Is a townie who successfully connected, informed at the start of D2? That would change things.

Michael Scott · Post Post #2 (isolation #1) » Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:15 am

In that case, the EV would be:
1/9 + (4/9)*(1/2) = 33%. Still pretty low.

Michael Scott · Post Post #3 (isolation #2) » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:07 am

Don't think there are any breaking strategies.
D1 discussion, apart from reads, is only meaningful functionally to govern pairings. In the case of each VT being paired with a goon, both goons simply say they didn't connect, making their other scum. From a VT's perspective who didn't connect, it's impossible to distinguish between both of the other pair when they both claim they didn't connect, thus D2 discussion doesn't even matter.

If it's unknown pairing, scum simply each fake declare a town as "not paired".