[SETUP/EV] Connect

[mith]

I agree with the 1/3 or 2/3 depending on whether town is told they were successful. I don’t think the 1/3 would be hard to prove just by exhaustive search of the day 1 strats. (Here’s a less obvious one: pick one player; everyone else targets him, he targets someone at random. There is a 1/2 chance of losing - you picked scum - but if you don’t the player is confirmed town, so do the same thing again. 1/2 chance of picking town and 2/3 chance of that player targetting the other town in two tries, so 1/3. In practice this one would be hard to actually do withiut provable randomness, since scum could block ever picking town; at some point, either someone has to switch or the players voting together just target each other. Pretty much every other strat is more practical. )

[mith]

3 Mafia, 2 Town might be interesting, actually. With a playerlist type strategy, it's 50-50 whether town are consecutive, and if town are told they were successful you could have some interesting games with scum claims. Running through all the possible strategies is a little more complicated though, and no time for that now...

[edit]I was thinking this, but managed to not type it: obviously in this version you would need to remove the scum day 1 win condition.[/edit]