Open 744 - Lovers and Losers [endgame]

[LolWagons]

Does this mean we get to shitpost until then...?

No.

I don’t want to have to crawl through seven pages of flaming shit when I do analysis.

[LolWagons]

I’d suggest we get setup-related issues out of the way first. I’m not super familiar with this setup.

I feel like if we are similarly suspicious of a pair and a single VT, we should lynch the VT claim... if they’re town we have a flip, and have 3 scum 5 town instead of two flips and 3 scum 4 town. That extra town player provides a crucial buffer to the ratio in what’s essentially lylo and I think it outweighs the benefit of two flips who were linked anyway. Thoughts?

[LolWagons]

Oh idk. My bad if we weren’t supposed to but I don’t see anything in the rules about it.

[LolWagons]

Ah. Well hopefully it’s not a huge deal.

[LolWagons]

VT.

[LolWagons]

Also lolwagons; if possible can you link to a scumgame or two of yours?

I don’t have any on this account. I replaced into and out of one for a day phase or two but that’s it. It’s two-three years old.

My main is slaxx but any on there would be 5 or more years old I think.

I just got back into mafia recently.

[LolWagons]

Yeah Michael's trying to hard to control this game so imma ignore him for now. Probably scum, but I'll see what else we got.

Why the reluctance to claim? Mass claim is ideal.

Scum can’t choose who they want to be in which group after the fact, they’re forced to commit up front.

[LolWagons]

So does this game only last two days?

1 if we are lucky.
But yeah max 2.

[LolWagons]

Why the reluctance to claim? Mass claim is ideal.

Scum can’t choose who they want to be in which group after the fact, they’re forced to commit up front.

Good scum definitely won't all claim VTs, they're gonna divide into one lover pair and one VT.

So one fake VT, all we need to do is scumhunt there.

That’s what I’m saying.

If they know the plan is to lynch from VTs they’ll put their towniest person in the VT pile if we don’t make them commit up front. I think we are on the and page, just saying it differently.

[LolWagons]

Same page*

I scumhunt mostly from my phone. So... sorry for typos.

[LolWagons]

I’ll go ahead and VOTE: Bambi for claim reluctance and throw an early townread on muh for asking how many days max the game goes. Pretty sure mafia would know how many mislynches they need and thus how many days it can go.

[LolWagons]

I'm strongly TRing Lol wagons now, and yeah agree with the weak TR on muh. I'd like to hear his claim though, nonetheless

Just realized we probably shouldn’t be throwing TRs at people who haven’t claimed. My bad.

[LolWagons]

FoS: Bambi Jay

Lolwagons, what she's doing isn't out of her townrange. I don't wanna vote her if she's part of a Lover Pair, fortunately we can afford one slot not claiming.

Is it an alt or something?

[LolWagons]

#68 and #69 from Dong feel a bit forced, particularly after we townread muh for something similar.

[LolWagons]

Oh thank God Clem is a lover I can’t read him alone.

[LolWagons]

Lolwagons, you sure you wanna vote Bambi, now that he's a claimed lover? I think we should start with 0verki11.
Then the dong dude. My current solve is {Clem, Muh, 0ver} right now.

I think you’re town but I think you’re wrong. Let’s do VOTE: dongempire first.

[LolWagons]

I didn’t like #88 either

Looks like someone trying to discount their responsibility on what they know is a mislynch.

[LolWagons]

this game is big dumb doodoo

Vote dong with me arch nemesis

[LolWagons]

i think we're doing this nemesis thing wrong

We can be frenemies

[LolWagons]

Pretty sure Mikey is town but his strategy is correct regardless. Lynching from VTs is optimal as I stated pregame.

Math is math. If he starts pushing you to lynch a VT you’re not comfortable with then that’s where you’d get your read from.

[LolWagons]

What does the third mafia lover do? is there a love triangle in mafia

is that an attempt at a townslip

ISO him it’s literally all that’s in there are these contrived townslips

If you think they’re forced get back on the wagon with me

[LolWagons]

ISO him it’s literally all that’s in there are these contrived townslips

If you think they’re forced get back on the wagon with me

0verki11 is the likelier here I think, supported by the fact that Clem voted him.
They do look like contrived townslips, but he made one *after* you stated suspicion on him for the same? I think that comes more from non-self-aware town, rather than scum.

If they look contrived it really doesn’t matter how many or when they are, they’re contrived. It’s the right vote. OK hasn’t even posted have they?

[LolWagons]

Michael you think it’s a coincidence your wagon started after I started pushing dong?

I don’t.

[LolWagons]

Michael you think it’s a coincidence your wagon started after I started pushing dong?

I don’t.

Now, to both Bambi and Elsa, the optimal votes for them are to crossvote, so there's no chance of a VT kill.
This instantly means you don't care about sorting Dong/0verki11, they both become irrelevant once I'm dead.
The lack of posts from 0verki11 make it hard to association-lock Bambi|Clem. On a whole, VTs are therefore now irrelevant.

Agree? Time's better spent on purely analysing Egix/Bambi and Clem/0verki11.

Nope. Optimal play is still to lynch the VT. If we sort wrong I want that extra Townie in lylo.

[LolWagons]

I don’t compromise on lynches. Egix knows that well.

We lynch out of VT claims.

[LolWagons]

Then it’s my job to convince them to play optimally through convincing rhetoric and save compromise for only near deadline, not throw in the towel now.

[LolWagons]

No, “we” haven’t. You have. You act like it’s set in stone when you have control to change it.

[LolWagons]

I don’t compromise on lynches. Egix knows that well.

We lynch out of VT claims.

Bud, you're tied to me and McQueen here.
Say we lynch Dong today, and he flips green.
Come tomorrow, Clemency is going to allege that you and I and McQueen are scum, and bandwagon onto you/me.
Bambi|Egix also join in because reasons, and I become the mislynch, thus letting scum win.

Dong isn’t going to flip town lol

[LolWagons]

IM NOT LYNCHING A FUCKING TOWNREAD 24 HOURS AFTER THE GAME STARTS

Everyone hasn’t even posted yet and we are all pretending the course of the game is set in stone.

[LolWagons]

Like three people have already assumed you’d flip town and were setting up lynches tomorrow that’s a huge red fucking flag and it’s fucking stupid there are any votes on you.

[LolWagons]

Because 5/9 people have stated Michael is the proper lynch, 2 lover sets and Michael himself.

Why are you so obsessed with the other VTs?

I explained it pregame.

If we get it wrong we have a 3:5 ratio tomorrow.

If we do lovers we have a 3:4 ratio if we get it wrong.

I want that extra Townie in lylo just in case.

[LolWagons]

I explained it pregame.

If we get it wrong we have a 3:5 ratio tomorrow.

If we do lovers we have a 3:4 ratio if we get it wrong.

I want that extra Townie in lylo just in case.

0verki11 always lynches me here.
Dude, if you and Dong achieve consensus on tomorrow's ML (If I flip) right now, it won't matter having an extra townie or not. The extra townie is always tethered to their lover anyway.

Ugh.

I realize we lose either way with 2 MLS

I’m saying the reason this game has a higher scum winrate than it should is because they have an outsized impact on the town from the get go.

Why exacerbate their influence over the rhetoric anymore than it already has been? I want 5:3 on day two and not 4:3.

I really, really jus want day two not to exist but whatever

[LolWagons]

4:3 is better

Why do you think 5:3 is better, numbers dont matter, it goes off in 2 lynches not 2 dead

I’ve explained twice in this thread now why it’s bettwr. You’re being willfully ignorant.

[LolWagons]

Yeah you don’t care about the answer because you’re not concerned with optimal play. Trust me, I’m aware.

[LolWagons]

Clem and meh aren't even posting anymore ATM and there's still chaos. No way scum just shuts up here, right?

Clem posted six minutes ago.

[LolWagons]

... how often do things on D2 go the way you plan them on D1?

[LolWagons]

Oh. My. God.

What makes you think I vote with him tomorrow? OK hasn’t posted but I am NOT townreading the dong slot right now.

[LolWagons]

MS I’m leaning the other way.

I think it’s Dong/Egix/Bambi

Why do you think it’s Clemency?

[LolWagons]

MS I’m leaning the other way.

I think it’s Dong/Egix/Bambi

Why do you think it’s Clemency?

BoP, basically. It's in Bambi's townrange to have done what's she has. Town!Clem doesn't push me when I have a breaking strategy here. Also, that slot has just been generating noise, using fancy terms to scumscuse me and drown out any discussion.

Also, look at Muh's ISO. Does he vote like that?

I need to go to bed soon, we'll take our time and sort this out though

Is muh usually a sheep or do they drive convo more?

[LolWagons]

I’d like to hear more from McQueen.

[LolWagons]

Can someone unvote so we don’t lolhammer?

[LolWagons]

OK has been active elsewhere. Idk if that’s AI for him.

[LolWagons]

Not for sure if I’m confident enough on either pair to end this yet. I’ll look over how they both interacted with Dong tomorrow. That might inform my decision more.

I would really like someone to unvote. If the new person comes in we could potentially have me/new person/McQueen/Dong/Scott vote within VTs and then all we need is to convince one of the people within the pairs or one of the pairs. I think Egix would listen to some sense. He’s sheeped me in past games and seen how effective I am. If he’s townreading me and the pair is Clem/Muh like you think, he will do it.

[LolWagons]

Nope sorry, I meant irl day.

In whole agreement we should sort them out before a lynch.

[LolWagons]

What do you think about what I just proposed?

[LolWagons]

@humble request to town:

pretty please hang Michael now? 70 percent chance the game ends here and now, and 30 percent chance me and Clem get to enter Mortal Kombat with each other and be entertaining AF.

It's a win-win for everyone. Well, except Micheal and McQueen and probably lolwagon.

If you suspect me vote me and lynch between VTs

[LolWagons]

MS especially with the last page I’m still way more comfortable lynching between VTs.

Neither of these pairs are making me feel good and I’d rather get this right the first try.

I think OKs willingness to TR me makes him likely to be town (he isn’t setting up mislynches by trying to throw shade on me) and so Dong is still the best lynch today.

[LolWagons]

All gameyou jerked yourself off saying im the optimal lynch but you only shaded me. If you're not scum, you're weak. Kill me already i wont even put up a fight.

How the fuck am I weak? You’re the only one throwing shade. Hypocrite.

You literally just did it to OK and now, me.

This is simple. Dong doesn’t want to take any town stances on either Vt because he knows he has to set up another lynch tomorrow. He’s trying to just skate by until we ML Michael. OK is VERY UNLIKELY scum because he does not have this fear. This is the ultimate tell in this setup because it is all-or-nothing.

VOTE. THIS.

[LolWagons]

Oh my god no. Dong first. And then that’ll be it. Because there won’t be a damn day 2.

[LolWagons]

If you strong townread me you need to trust this read. I’m a damn good town player.

I’m willing to listen on why you think it’s OK over Dong but... that’s going to be an uphill battle.

[LolWagons]

If you strong townread me you need to trust this read. I’m a damn good town player.

I’m willing to listen on why you think it’s OK over Dong but... that’s going to be an uphill battle.

Oh my god no. Dong first. And then that’ll be it. Because there won’t be a damn day 2.

Yawn
Keep trotting your own horn buddy

^Ignores the substance of my argument and responds to less game-related points

because he knows he loses if we talk about his play

[LolWagons]

I dont.
I lose if your ego is hurt though
But hey, you're good. Source: you. So it must be me

Source: All the other town games I’ve played, soon to be including this one

[LolWagons]

All gameyou jerked yourself off saying im the optimal lynch but you only shaded me. If you're not scum, you're weak. Kill me already i wont even put up a fight.

How the fuck am I weak? You’re the only one throwing shade. Hypocrite.

You literally just did it to OK and now, me.

This is simple. Dong doesn’t want to take any town stances on either Vt because he knows he has to set up another lynch tomorrow. He’s trying to just skate by until we ML Michael. OK is VERY UNLIKELY scum because he does not have this fear. This is the ultimate tell in this setup because it is all-or-nothing.

VOTE. THIS.

I was the biggest voice against michael.
There, i responded to it. If you still cant see it you're an idiot.

That has absolutely nothing to do with what I posted. It does serve to buddy up with MS though.

[LolWagons]

guys
stop arguing
just vote mike

NoOoOo

[LolWagons]

So @Bambi and @Clemency, do either of you have a truly

legitimate

argument for why town shouldn't strive to have that 5:3 town:scum ratio on day two rather than a 4:3 town:scum ratio via lynching a claimed VT today rather than a claimed town lover pair?

Both of you have been shading our slot all game long for extremely bad reasons, and yet neither of you have made an

intelligent

argument as to why lynching a claimed town lover pair over a claimed VT is the optimal strategy that gives the town the greatest chance of winning the game on day two in the event that the day one lynch is a mislynch.

There is simply no logical reason to fight the strategy of lynching within the claimed VT pool as town.

- Volxen (Date Mike)

There’s a simple reason and it’s that OK and I have already found scum, and you two aren’t lynching me. So they literally can’t back down on that stance. They’re locked in. One pair is stupid and one is scum.

[LolWagons]

Srsly tho I got family to hang out with, lets kill Michael and be on our merry way.

Ruby get back on Michael. Dont fall for their lies.

NOPE

Ruby, you need to get on Dong. I’ve seen your play, I know you’re reasonable. Don’t try to dick me around. If you’re town you need to vote dong.

[LolWagons]

i have no idea who's deepwolfing me right now and i'm not voting either one of them until i figure it out

You don’t even to have to solve the damn pairs I’ve solved the VTs already

[LolWagons]

i have no idea who's deepwolfing me right now and i'm not voting either one of them until i figure it out

You don’t even to have to solve the damn pairs I’ve solved the VTs already

Yeah, the scum team Michael/Lolwagon/McQueen are lynching the other 2 vts. So smart. Such scum. Much wow.

Ruby dont fall for this shit.

Shut up and let someone who doesn’t shitpost their way through a game lead the two of you

[LolWagons]

I’m sorry that was probably too much but this game is pissing me off, if you’re town you need to know that it’s best for you to defer to ruby

[LolWagons]

VOTE: Dongempire

Bless.

Now we need two of Ruby/Mcqueen/Bambi and this nightmare will end.

[LolWagons]

It'll be a very fun challenge to do.

i'd rather just win tbh you know

@Mcqueen, @Ruby, @Overkill, @Muh: Are any of you willing to join LolWagons and I in voting for Dong?

in theory

why dong over overkill? why is wagons town?

I’ve laid out why Dong > Overkill. Do you want the reasons specifically from them?

[LolWagons]

All gameyou jerked yourself off saying im the optimal lynch but you only shaded me. If you're not scum, you're weak. Kill me already i wont even put up a fight.

How the fuck am I weak? You’re the only one throwing shade. Hypocrite.

You literally just did it to OK and now, me.

This is simple. Dong doesn’t want to take any town stances on either Vt because he knows he has to set up another lynch tomorrow. He’s trying to just skate by until we ML Michael. OK is VERY UNLIKELY scum because he does not have this fear. This is the ultimate tell in this setup because it is all-or-nothing.

VOTE. THIS.

Mainly this

[LolWagons]

Then his whole reaction to it as well

[LolWagons]

You guys won.

OK/Me/Dong were mafia. I bussed hard. Two VTs must have claimed lover.

[LolWagons]

Little worried that one from each pair voted Dong actually but whatever

This game doesn’t seem to be wrought with strategic thinking

[LolWagons]

Little worried that one from each pair voted Dong actually but whatever

This game doesn’t seem to be wrought with strategic thinking

Your just happy that you got 2 of the town lovers to vote with Michael, ya bloody scum.

So... you hammered someone you thought was town?

Only one of OK/Me/Dong could be scum.

[LolWagons]

I’m feeling way less good about this now.

MS are you around?

[LolWagons]

Fuck no, we are not lynching outside OK and I tomorrow. I’ll type out a damn Grapes of Wrath length post explaining why if I have to.

I thought for sure you were town because I didn’t see that kind of wagon forming on mafia in this setup (quick, poorly-reasoned, L-1) and I really didn’t think someone would townread me that early and then suggest to lynch from VTs if they were scum.

But you didn’t push Overkill and capitulated to Dong and now you’re trying to lynch outside of OK?

[LolWagons]

By my mental count. Dongempire is lynched.

Dongempire - Lolwagons, 0verk1ll, Michael Scott, clemency, bambi jay

Dongempire was a VT

No shit

Okay, I’m sorry but you voted OK and pushed early, your reaction test (the “name your partner”) thing also made me think you’re town. You still abandoned the read and voted Dong and I assumed you’d be voting between OK and I now.

What am I supposed to think when you’re on about optimal play and then switch to fielding something suboptimal? Something that goes from me having a 100% chance of winning if I can prove myself Town to a 33% chance?

[LolWagons]

With my family will post ASAP

VOTE: Overk1ll

[LolWagons]

I’m so sorry Michael lmfao

[LolWagons]

I’m cool with releasing scum PT

[LolWagons]

viewtopic.php?f=90&t=78158&start=125

Its mostly me lamenting having to deceive the MS slot because I’d be super happy to play with them as town

[LolWagons]

Fwiw town me would have lynched Dong there every time. I didn’t really have to pretend.

[LolWagons]

Good game though.

I feel like 25% is a sweet spot for the scum ratio in games.

Once you approach 33% town just can’t ever get organized.

[LolWagons]

I can usually drive home D1 scum lynches as town, which is all it would have taken in this setup. Wasn’t lying about that piece of my town meta.

So yeah, I think both your slot and me being town would have ended a lot different,

[LolWagons]

I think this setup just needs to burn forever. It deserves to be a blitz game not a setup that you spend three weeks on.

I can’t even think of a way to balance it out.

[LolWagons]

I’m glad y’all are friends again.

Clemency, always enjoy playing with you. Can’t wait to play with the MS hybrid in the future.

[LolWagons]

What? I’m always town. Every game. You can always trust me.

[LolWagons]

Honestly I was really worried about Overk1ll coming in the thread and towntelling.

Then I would have had to convince clemency that if he thought I was scum with you two to vote you, which would have been a nightmare and would have sealed your scum read of me.

[LolWagons]

The mafia just has an outsized role in the beginning as I said. Add to that no clears and no investigative PRs and it’s probably an accurate demonstration of how often mob rule works.

Maybe do 2 Town lover pairs, 1 scum lover pair, 2 VTs, 1 Goon, and two lover masons. Give mafia a night 1 kill.

Or something like that. The problem is no clears and early outsized scum influence. To fix the setup you have to fix that.